Daily Bullion Physical Market Report Date: 23rd August 2022

Daily India Spot Market Rates Gold and Silver 999 Watch
Description Purity AM PM Date GOLD* SILVER*
Gold 999 51550 51396
22nd August 2022 51396 55110
Gold 995 51344 51190
Gold 916 47220 47079 19th August 2022 51802 55881

Gold 750 38663 38547

18th August 2022 52081 57100
Gold 585 30157 30067
17th August 2022 52034 57821
Silver 999 55166 55110
*Rate as exclusive of GST as of 22nd August 2022 Gold is Rs/10 Gm & Silver in Rs/Kg The above rates are IBJA PM Rates; *Rates are exclusive of GST

COMEX Futures Watch ETF Holdings as on Previous Close

Description Contract Close Change %Chg ETFs Long Short

Gold($/oz) DEC 22 1748.40 -14.50 -0.82 SPDR Gold 989.01 3.18

Silver($/oz) DEC 22 18.98 -0.20 -1.02 iShares Silver 15,044.27 -55.91

Gold and Silver Fix Bullion Futures DGCX Gold Ratio

Description LTP Description Contract LTP Description LTP
Gold London AM Fix($/oz) 1732.80 Gold($/oz) August 22 1739.6
Gold Silver Ratio 92.12
Gold London PM Fix($/oz) 1733.25 Gold Quanto August 22 51183

18.90 Silver($/oz) SEPT. 22 18.88 Gold Crude Ratio 19.35

Silver London Fix($/oz)

Weekly CFTC Positions MCX Indices

Long Short Net Index Close Net Change % Chg
Gold($/oz) 108673 62437 46236
MCX iCOMDEX
14111.22 -96.91 -0.69%
Silver 32070 37836 -5766 Bullion

Macro-Economic Indicators
Time Country Event Forecast Previous Impact
23rd August 07:15PM United States Flash Services PMI 50.0 47.3 High
23rd August 06:00PM United States Flash Manufacturing PMI 52.0 52.2 Medium
23rd August 06:00PM Europe Consumer Confidence -28 -27 Low
23rd August 06:00PM United States New Home Sales 574 K 590 K Medium
23rd August 06:00PM United States Richmond Manufacturing Index -6 0 Medium
Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Bullion News and Summary
 Gold dropped for a sixth day with the dollar and Treasury yields pushing higher as traders await clues on central banks’ monetary tightening
from the annual Jackson Hole meeting. Investors sought haven in the greenback amid a risk-off mode in the broader financial markets, with the US
equities retreating and the benchmark 10-year Treasury yield above 3%. A stronger dollar and higher bond yields are bad for bullion as it pays no
interest and is priced in the US currency. All eyes will be on Chair Jerome Powell when he speaks Friday at the annual gathering of central bankers
at Jackson Hole. He is expected to re-state the Fed’s resolve to keep raising rates to get inflation under control, though he’ll probably stop short of
signaling how big officials will go when they meet next month.

 Russian miners are leading the push into yuan-bond issuance on the local market as international sanctions deepen the nation’s economic ties
with China. Polyus PJSC, Russia’s biggest gold miner, will collect offers for 3.5 billion yuan ($511 million) of five-year bonds on Tuesday, at a yield of
4.2% or lower, according to people familiar with the matter who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t public. The company also
hopes to tempt local retail investors by allowing bids as small as 1,000 yuan, the people said. Polyus follows aluminum giant United Co. Rusal
International PJSC’s July sale of yuan bonds in Russia. Shut off from Western markets since the invasion of Ukraine, Russia has become the third
largest user of yuan for international payments outside China, Swift data show. Russian investors are looking for instruments other than those
denominated in the dollar and euro as exporters increasingly turn to China and receive yuan for their goods. Yuan trading is booming on the
Moscow Exchange, and intraday volumes occasionally exceeded those for the dollar last week. More of Russia’s big commodity exporters may
follow Polyus and Rusal as they tilt their borrowing away from the US and European currencies, according to Iskander Lutsko, chief strategist at ITI
Capital in Moscow.

 Exchange-traded funds added 69,512 troy ounces of gold to their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net purchases to 2.59
million ounces, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. The purchases were equivalent to $121.4 million at the previous spot price. Total gold
held by ETFs rose 2.6 percent this year to 100.4 million ounces. Gold declined 4.5 percent this year to $1,747.06 an ounce and by 0.7 percent in the
latest session. State Street's SPDR Gold Shares, the biggest precious-metals ETF, boosted its holdings by 102,490 ounces in the last session. ETFs
cut 1.83 million troy ounces of silver from their holdings in the last trading session, bringing this year's net sales to 97.9 million ounces.

 Gold's poor performance despite the greatest inflation in 40 years may show that the metal, considered a store of value, has been anticipating
enduring deflation, and is resuming its propensity to outperform most commodities. Gold appears in early recovery days vs. copper and crude oil.
Our analysis with wheat shows the metal's tendency to surpass other commodities. Bitcoin is a top contender. A strengthening dollar and an
aggressive Federal Reserve were gold headwinds in 1H, but the outcome may be a firming foundation for the metal. Gold has appreciated vs.
crude oil since the financial crisis, and the trend could be drawing fuel from the relatively discounted levels reached in 1H. Our graphic depicts the
gold-to-crude ratio appearing similar to the bottom in 2018, and a primary reason: the paradigm shift of North American oil supply exceeding
demand. Prospects for these trends to reverse appear as the less likely scenario vs. simply inclining back toward enduring trajectories. The 1Q
spike in energy prices sped up central-bank rate hikes, and both factors may nudge the global economy toward recession, aiding gold.

 Israel’s central bank surprised most economists by delivering its biggest increase to interest rates in two decades, tightening monetary policy for
the fourth straight meeting in the face of the fastest inflation since 2008. The monetary committee on Monday increased its benchmark to 2%
from 1.25%. The decision makes this the longest cycle of rate hikes since 2008, and is the third to exceed forecasts since the tightening cycle began
earlier this year. “The Israeli economy is recording strong growth, accompanied by a tight labor market and an increase in the inflation
environment,” the central bank said in a statement. “The increase in inflation is broad-based, with contributions from most CPI components.”
Governor Amir Yaron is looking to navigate an increasingly buoyant domestic economy that’s ripe for higher rates but with inflation likely
constrained by a surge in the shekel and a letup in global energy prices. The central bank has tried to get ahead of inflation by increasing
the pace of monetary tightening every time it raised rates this year. Price growth has been above the government’s 1% to 3% target since January.

 Fundamental Outlook: Gold and silver prices are trading slightly positive on international bourses. We expect precious metals prices on Indian
bourses to trade range-bound to slightly higher for the day. We recommend buy on dips in gold and silver in intra-day trading sessions as Treasury
yields and the US dollar climbed ahead of the annual gathering of central bankers at Jackson Hole this week.

Key Market Levels for the Day

Time Month S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

Gold – COMEX December 1735 1760 1795 1820 1845 1855

Silver – COMEX September 19.00 19.30 19.65 19.95 20.20 20.45

Gold – MCX October 50650 50900 51100 51300 51450 51670

Silver – MCX September 53800 54300 54700 55200 55700 56300

Nirmal Bang Securities - Daily Currency Market Update
Dollar Index Market Summary and News
 Chinese lenders lowered their benchmark rates and the central bank urged them to
LTP/Close Change % Change
maintain steady loan growth as Beijing deploys more levers to alleviate a worsening
109.05 0.88 0.81 housing crisis. The five-year loan prime rate, a reference for mortgages, was reduced by
15 basis points to 4.3% after being cut by the same magnitude in May. The People’s
Bank of China on Monday urged lenders, especially major state-owned banks, to boost
Bond Yield loans to the real economy. The moves follow Friday’s announcement of special loans
being offered to property developers in a program that could be worth 200 billion yuan
10 YR Bonds LTP Change ($29.3 billion), according to people familiar with the discussions. The special loans for
developers would be the biggest financial commitment yet from Beijing to contain the
United States 3.0146 -0.0018 crisis. The funds will be channeled through China Development Bank and Agricultural
Development Bank of China. The PBOC also cut its one-year loan prime rate on
Europe 1.3030 0.0760 Monday, lowering it by a smaller-than-expected 5 basis points to 3.65%, the first
decline since January. The drop in the LPRs followed the central bank’s surprise move
Japan 0.2220 -0.0010 last week to lower the rate on its one-year policy loans by 10 basis points. China is
taking drastic action to help a real estate market beset with problems. Home sales
India 7.2660 0.0050 continue to plunge, property investment is contracting, cash-strapped developers are
struggling to complete projects and homebuyers are boycotting mortgage payments.
Emerging Market Currency
 Europe’s common currency fell to a new two-decade low as concern about the
Currency LTP Change economic prospects for the region continue to mount. The euro fell as much as 0.9% to
0.9951, below the prior low for 2022 of 0.9952. Following the slide, it is once again
Brazil Real 5.157 -0.0133 trading at levels last seen in 2002, just a few years after the currency came into
existence. Europe’s economy is facing a swath of major issues right now, with the
South Korea Won 1339.7 1.4500 fallout from the war in Ukraine driving up energy and food costs and a severe drought
adding to challenges. The euro broke below parity for the second time in just over a
Russia Rubble 60.108 0.7114 month as a resurgent dollar and the prospect of a difficult winter for the region begin to
bite. Strategists see the dip as the start of a deeper descent.
Chinese Yuan 6.8483 0.0031
 The euro could slide to $0.97 this quarter, a level not seen since the early 2000s, by
Vietnam Dong 23412 6 the end of September, after which the market could be looking for the $0.95 level or
possibly lower, as pressure on energy supplies raises the risk of blackouts and likely
Mexican Peso 20.1415 -0.0484 boosts euro imports. The turnaround in sentiment comes as traders focus on fears of a
prolonged cut in Russian gas supplies to Europe, which could tip the region into a
recession while fanning inflation. Markets will be on alert for any more clarity over
NSE Currency Market Watch central bank responses to the conflicting forces of recessionary risks and soaring prices
at this week’s Jackson Hole symposium. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome
Currency LTP Change Powell is expected to reiterate the central bank’s commitment to fighting inflation, and
will also be joined by officials from the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.
NDF 80.14 -0.02 The euro is likely to be particularly susceptible for a revision of the underlying Fed
expectation, as the ECB has taken the second-strongest possible dovish position among
USDINR 79.88 -0.055 the G10 central banks. An easing in gauges of US financial conditions during the
summer, despite an aggressive pace of rate hikes, could be another prompt for further
JPYINR 58.425 -0.07
Fed hawkishness, making Powell’s tone at Jackson Hole a potentially important catalyst
GBPINR 94.35 -0.37 for the dollar.

EURINR 80.005 -0.4325  The Reserve Bank of India probably sold $2.5 billion of foreign currency assets in the
week ended Aug. 12, according to our estimates. Total FX reserves of the central bank
USDJPY 136.95 0.15 dropped to $570.7 billion in the week ended Aug. 12, from $573.0 billion in the week
prior. Valuation effects, which measure the cross-currency changes in the value of RBI’s
GBPUSD 1.1804 -0.0046 non-dollar FX assets and the mark-to-market changes in its FX portfolio holdings, likely
EURUSD 1.0011 -0.0051 reduced the value of its FX assets by $0.2 billion in the week ended Aug. 12.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR Spot 79.4000 79.6000 79.7500 80.1000 80.2800 80.4000

Nirmal Bang Securities - Bullion Technical Market Update

Gold Market Update

Market View
Open 51409
High 51409
Low 50971
Close 51163
Value Change -316
% Change -0.61
Spread Near-Next 1138
Volume (Lots) 5089
Open Interest 14112
Change in OI (%) -2.30%

Gold - Outlook for the Day

Gold prices are likely to support around $ 1730-40 where we can initiate long positions
and trade positive for the day. It can test 1760-70 for the coming sessions.

BUY GOLD OCT (MCX) AT 51100 SL 50900 TARGET 51400/51550

Silver Market Update

Market View

Open 55237
High 55428
Low 54470
Close 54992
Value Change -504
% Change -0.91
Spread Near-Next 5008
Volume (Lots) 13496
Open Interest 17249
Change in OI (%) -2.03%

Silver - Outlook for the Day

Silver also looks positive for the session and likely to take support around $ 19.10-19.00 for
the target of $ 19.40-50.

BUY SILVER SEPT (MCX) AT 54700 SL 54300 TARGET 55200/55700

Nirmal Bang Securities - Currency Technical Market Update

USDINR Market Update

Market View

Open 79.9425
High 79.9675
Low 79.7625
Close 79.88
Value Change -0.055
% Change -0.07
Spread Near-Next -1.1834
Volume (Lots) 2503395
Open Interest 3159820
Change in OI (%) 3.55%

USDINR - Outlook for the Day

USDINR witnessed a positive open at 79.94 followed by a session in red marking the low at
79.76 with closure in red at 79.86. USDINR has formed a red candle with sideways closure
indicating profit taking. The pair has given closure above all SMA indicating support from
lower levels. USDINR, if trades below 79.86, pair will head towards 79.40. Whereas,
momentum above 79.98, will lead the pair to test the highs of 80.15 – 80.25. The daily
strength indicator RSI and momentum oscillator Stochastic both are in positive zone with
crossing their respective signal line thus indicating positive bias.

Key Market Levels for the Day

S3 S2 S1 R1 R2 R3

USDINR August 79.4000 79.6500 79.7800 80.0500 80.2200 80.3800

Nirmal Bang Securities – Commodity Research Team

Name Designation Email

Kunal Shah Head of Research kunal.shah@nirmalbang.com

Devidas Rajadhikary AVP Commodity Research devidas.rajadhikary@nirmalbang.com

Harshal Mehta AVP Commodity Research harshal.mehta@nirmalbang.com

Ravi D’souza Sr. Research Analyst ravi.dsouza@nirmalbang.com

Smit Bhayani Research Associate smit.bhayani@nirmalbang.com

Riya Singh Currency Research Analyst riya.singh@nirmalbang.com

This Document has been prepared by Nirmal Bang Securities Pvt. Ltd. The
information, analysis and estimates contained herein are based on Nirmal Bang
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