Project work in Production Planning & Control

Split Air Conditioner Production System

MG 2205 OPERATIONS MANAGEMENT

Production Engineering & Management

Submitted By Sabih Zeb Ahmed Saad Naseem Thomas Hausmann Amin Guelil

Submitted To Dr. Daniel T. Semere

Glossary
Actual Capacity (Total available hours preventive maintenance down time hours)/(time of process per product) Aggregate Plan The aggregate production plan specifies in intermediate term how to provide the capacity to meet the demand in the intermediate period. It is often done by trial and error in which as many possible scenario are tested and later compared. Assembly Assembly refers to the systematic assembly of components and/or modules onto products or modules, thus to form units of higher product levels. The reversal of assembly is called disassembly and uses also different techniques. Back Order Back orders occur, if customer needs in concern of orders are not met. BOM Bill of Material List of all raw materials, parts, subassemblies and assemblies needed to produce one unit of a product. Capacity Planning In capacity planning the needed production capacity is determined to meet customer needs. In this context, the maximum amount of work which the company is capable is called capacity. Lead, lag and match strategy are differentiated: Lead strategy: aggressive strategy while adding capacity in prognosis of increased demand. This could lead to inventory, which might be costly and wasteful. Lag strategy: conservative strategy which is adding capacity only if full capacity is reached. On the one hand this minimizes the risk of waste. On the other hand customers could be lost. Match strategy: moderate strategy while adding only small amounts of capacity in response to increased demand. Changeover Time Time to set a machine from one setting to another. Customer order decoupling point This is a virtual point in the supply chain, where stocks are created in order to decouple orders and pre-fabrications. The choice of CODPs is a strategic matter and delivery times, inventories and the level of service should be considered. Cyclical component Mostly a seasonal move of measurements which occurs cyclical. Design Capacity (Total available hours a year)/(Number of hours the process needs per product)
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EOQ - Economic Order Quantity The EOQ is a number within the procurement logistics that minimizes the sum of variable and fix ordering and inventory cost for a given level of service. The EOQ calculation solves the trade-off between small ordernumbers (Inventory cost) and Order-to-order time (Ordering cost). Effective Capacity (total available hours preventive maintenance) / (time for process per product) Efficiency Actual Capacity / Effectiv Capacity Gross requirements ( MRP) The total expected demand for an item during each time period. Holding cost Cost of handling and storing. Inventory Products, modules or components stored physically. Kanban Kanban (Japanese card, table, document) is a method of production process control. The pull principle is based solely on actual consumption of materials at the source and the sink. Lead time Lead time is the time from placing an order for a material until it is acquired. Each component has its own lead time, depending on the properties of the supply line. MPS Master Production Schedule The master production schedule indicates the quantity and timing of planned production, taking into accountdesired delivery quantity and timing as well as on-hand inventory. Three basic inputs are used: beginning inventory, forecast for each period of the schedule, customer orders which have already committed. MRP Material Requirement Planning MRP is an information processing system (often computer based) in which the finished product requirements of the MPS are translated into time-phased requirements of subassemblies, component parts and raw materials, working backward from the due date using lead times to determine how much and when to order. Net Requirement ( MRP) The actual amount needed in each time period. NR = Gross requirement projected on hand + safety stock

Ordering Cost ( EOQ) Cost related to order preparation, communication, receiving cost etc. Planned order receipt ( MRP) The quantity expected to be received by the beginning of the time period. Planned order releases The planned amount to order in each time period. Product structure tree PST is a visual depiction of the requirements in a bill of materials where all components are listed by levels. Some of the components in a product may be needed in multiples, for instance for symmetrical products you need duplication of the same component. Such depiction is called exploding the BOM. Production Planning This is a decision making process about what and how much to produce in the future. Its based on the demand forecast and orders from customers, production capacities and inventory. Production Rate The number of units manufactured in a given period of time or the time required to produce a single article. Production System A production system defines next to resources and manufacturing also rules and the method by which certain processes are carried out in production. It is created out of specific company needs. Projected on hand ( MRP) POH is the expected amount of inventory at hand at the beginning of each time period. Projected Inventory PI = Inventory from previous week current week requirement Pull-principle The pull principle is a system for process control, in which the orders are pulled through the production. The impulse for working on an order is given from the end of the supply chain. That means, it is done in opposite direction to the material flow. It establishes a demanddriven production. Push-principle The push principle is a production control system in which the orders are pushed through the supply chain. The impulse for the initiative of each step is triggered by a fixed plan. Scheduled receipts ( MRP) Open orders scheduled to arrive from suppliers by the beginning of the period.
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Scheduling It deals with the operational (short term), temporal, quantitative management and control of all operations that are necessary for the production of goods and commodities. Takt Time Total available time / Desired output rate Time horizon ( Capacity Planning, Aggregate Planning, Scheduling) In production planning three levels of time horizons are differentiated. Long term (years to decades), intermediate term (months to years), short term (hours to weeks) Trend A trend in a case of measurements in science, technology and economy is a systematic positive or negative effect on the whole measurement in time. Utilization Actual Capacity / Design Capacity

TABLE OF CONTENTS
0. Introduction 0.1. Approach... 0.2. Data Mining.. 1. Product presentation... 1.1. Air Conditioning and Air Conditioner.. 1.2. Split Air Conditioner and associated parts 2. Manufacturing Process and Variants.. 2.1. Introduction... 2.2. Variants. 2.3. Indoor Unit Manufacturing Process.. 2.4. Outdoor Unit Manufacturing Process... 3. Model Enhancement... 3.1. Capacity Planning. 3.2. Historical Data Trend 3.2.1. Our Forecasting... 3.2.2. Forecasting Methods 3.3. Aggregate Planning... 3.4. Bill of Materials and Product Structure Tree 3.5. Master Production Schedule. 3.6. Economic order quantity (EOQ)... 3.7. CODP - Customer order decoupling point 3.8. KanBan.. 3.9. Scheduling. A1. References A2. Appendix..

0. Introduction 0.1. Approach

The product we have chosen is Air conditioner. The original data is acquired from PEL Pak Electron Limited which produces Air conditioners in Pakistan with collaboration with M/s AEG Germany. The following analysis and implementation of course knowledge is based on the Process Modeling project from last semester. The workload was divided amongst team members and regular meetings were held to make sure the progress was according to schedule. The log at the end of this report documents this. The order of implementation of the methods learned in production planning and control is done according to the lecture. Often, assumptions had to be made of how much detail analysis was required for certain steps.

0.2. Data Mining

We start our process by using the three stages of data mining. Data mining is basically an analytic process, which is designed to explore data in search of consistent patterns and systematic relationships between variables, and then to validate the findings by applying the detected patterns to new subsets of data. The main goal of data mining is prediction, the process of data mining consists of 3 stages (1) The initial exploration (2) model building with verification/validation (3) Deployment. 1) The initial exploration In the initial exploration stage we gathered further data for our Air conditioning manufacturing plant model which we designed using Extend6. 2) Model building with verification/validation The already built model was taken into consideration and it was further modified for smoother results. We modified the model many times until we got the desired result. Using the mentioned strategy we analyzed our model and enhanced its performance. 3) Deployment In the third stage of data mining, the selected model from the previous step was taken and now we applied forecasting techniques to the selected model for further improvements and in order to generate predictions or estimates of the expected forecast.

1. Product presentation 1.1. Air Conditioning and Air Conditioner:

The process of air conditioning refers to the removal of heat from indoor air for thermal comfort. The term can refer to any form of cooling, heating, ventilation or disinfection that modifies the condition of air. An air conditioner (AC) is a machine designed to stabilize the air temperature and humidity within an area (cooling as well as heating depending on the air properties at a given time) typically using a refrigeration cycle. Its use in the form of providing comfort can be found in houses, offices, hospitals, motor vehicles etc. There are many types of air conditioners present namely, window air conditioner system, split air conditioner system, central air conditioning plants, packaged air conditioner. All work on the same basic principle of the refrigeration cycle. Our focus is concerned on split air conditioning systems.

1.2. Split Air Conditioner and associated parts:

The split air conditioner comprises of two parts: the outdoor unit and the indoor unit. The outdoor unit, fitted outside the room, houses components like the compressor, condenser and expansion valve. The indoor unit comprises the evaporator or cooling coil and the cooling fan. For this unit you dont have to make any slot in the wall of the room. Further, the present day split units have aesthetic looks and add to the beauty of the room. The split air conditioner can be used to cool one or two rooms.

Indoor Unit:

It is the indoor unit that produces the cooling effect inside the room. The indoor unit of the split air conditioner is a box type housing in which all the important parts of the air conditioner are enclosed.

1) Evaporator Coil/Cooling Coil: The cooling coil is a copper coil made of number turns of the copper tubing with one or more rows depending on the capacity of the air conditioning system. The cooling coil is covered with the aluminum fins so that the maximum amount of heat can be transferred from the coil to the air inside the room. The refrigerant from the tubing at very low temperature and very low pressure enters the cooling coil. The blower absorbs the hot room air or the atmospheric air and in doing so the air passes over the cooling coil, which leads to the cooling of the air. This air is then blown to the room where the cooling effect has to be produced. The air, after producing the cooling effect is again sucked by the blower and the process of cooling the room continues. 2) Air Filter: The air filter is very important part of the indoor unit. It removes all the dirt particles from the room air and helps supplying clean air to the room. The air filter in the wall mounted type of the indoor unit is placed just before the cooling coil. When the blower sucks the hot room air, it is first passed through the air filter and then though the cooling coil. Thus the clean air at low temperature is supplied into the room by the blower. 3) Cooling Fan or Blower: Inside the indoor unit there is also a long blower that sucks the room air or the atmospheric air. It is an induced type of blower and while is sucks the room air it is passed over the cooling coil and the filter due to which the temperature of the air reduces and all the dirt from it is removed. The blower sucks the hot and unclean air from the room and supplies cool and clean air back. The shaft of the blower rotates inside the bushes and it is connected to a small multiple speed motor, thus the speed of the blower can be changed. When the fan speed is changed with the remote it is the speed of the blower that changes. 4) Drainpipe: To remove condensed water vapors from evaporator the drainpipe is connected to the some external place outside the room where water can be disposed of. Thus the drainpipe helps removing dew water collected inside the indoor unit.

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5) Louvers or grill: The cool air supplied by the blower is passed into the room through louvers. The louvers help changing the angle or direction in which the air needs to be supplied into the room as per the requirements. With louvers one can easily change the direction in which the maximum amount of the cooled air has to be passed. There are two types of louvers: horizontal and vertical. 6) Thermostat: A thermostat is a device for regulating the temperature of a system so that the system's temperature is maintained near a desired set point temperature. A thermostat may be a control unit for a heating or cooling system or a component part of a heater or air conditioner.

7) Expansion valve The thermostatic expansion valve (TEV or TXV) is used for refrigerant flow control and operates at varying pressures resulting from varying temperatures. This valve maintains constant superheat in the evaporator. Thermal expansion valve has a sensing bulb, which is connected to TXV by a length of capillary tubing. The capillary tube transmits sensing bulb pressures to the top of the TXV valves diaphragm. 8) Solenoid valve A solenoid valve is an electromechanical valve for use with liquid or gas. The valve is controlled by an electric current through a solenoid coil. Solenoid valves may have two or more ports: in the case of a two-port valve the flow is switched on or off; in the case of a three-port valve, the outflow is switched between the two outlet ports.

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Out Door Unit:

1) Condenser: Air conditioners use refrigerants that easily convert from a gas to a liquid and back again. This is used to transfer heat from the air inside of a home to the outside air. The working fluid arrives at the compressor as a cool, low-pressure gas. The compressor squeezes the fluid. This packs the molecule of the fluid closer together. The closer the molecules are together, the higher its energy and its temperature. The working fluid leaves the compressor as a hot, high pressure gas and flows into the condenser. The fins on coils act just like a radiator in a car and help the heat go away, or dissipate, more quickly. When the working fluid leaves the condenser, its temperature is much cooler and it has changed from a gas to a liquid under high pressure. The liquid goes into the evaporator through a very tiny, narrow hole. On the other side, the liquid's pressure drops. When it does it begins to evaporate into a gas. 2) Reversing valve: A reversing valve is a component in a heat pump, that reverses the direction of refrigerant flow. By reversing the flow of refrigerant, the heat pump refrigeration cycle is changed from cooling to heating or vice versa. This allows a residence or facility to be heated and cooled by a single piece of equipment, by the same means, and with the same hardware

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2) Compressor: A gas compressor is a mechanical device that increases the pressure of a gas by reducing its volume. Compressors are similar to pumps: both increase the pressure on a fluid and both can transport the fluid through a pipe. As gases are compressible, the compressor also reduces the volume of a gas.

Furthermore the outdoor unit also comprises of the solenoid valve, thermostat, expansion valve and a fan which have already been discussed in the indoor unit parts above.

Indoor and Outdoor Unit

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2. Manufacturing Process and Variants 2.1. Introduction

We have replicated the manufacturing processes used in LG Air conditioner Industries (Pvt) limited. They manufacture all the non-electrical components in facility. Now a days due to high production load, quality issues and market competence the manufacturing is substituted by only assembly of parts and most of the components are purchased from suppliers or daughter companies. But we are modeling the whole manufacturing process. Our product is made up of two major parts. Indoor and outdoor unit. So there are two basic production lines which join at the end. Auxiliary components are assembled in between.

2.2. Variants
Four Variances are introduced Variance
1 2 3 4

1 TON with cooling 2 TON with cooling 1 TON with cooling and heating 2 TON with cooling and heating

Production Volume (%) 25% 25% 25% 25%

Variant 1: 1 Ton cooling capacity for normal air conditioner Variant 2: 2 Ton cooling capacity for normal air conditioner Variant 3: 1 Ton capacity reversible split Air conditioner acting like a heat pump. A heat pump is a machine that moves heat from one location at a lower temperature to another location at a higher temperature using mechanical work. The difference between a normal air conditioner and a hear pump is that a heat pump can be used to both heat and cool a particular area. The refrigeration cycle in both the cases remains the same. Conversion between cooling and heating is achieved by adding a single four way reversing valve to the normal air

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conditioning unit, by reversing the direction of the valve one can choose between cooling and heating. In cooler climates it is common to have heat pumps Variant 4: 2 Ton capacity reversible split Air conditioner acting like a heat pump.

2.3. Indoor Unit Manufacturing Process

Steps in the production of our indoor unit are mentioned below: Metal casing: 1. For casing, metal sheets are first sheared on metal cutting machine according to the dimensions 2. It is then punched to produce slots and holes for assembly and mountings. 3. Punched sheets are then bended to produce corners and sides of casing. 4. Finally they are powder coated and dried under UV light to give an aesthetic look and corrosion resistance. 5. Sheet metal casing is then conveyed to the assembly station.

Indoor metal casing manufacturing steps

Specifications: Hydraulic Shearing machine: 2000 kN, 8-10 strokes per minute Punching machine: 1500 kN, 10 strokes per minute Bending/folding machine: stroke length 50 inch, 3 strokes per minute Powder coating /painting: 1 part per minute Evaporator coils: 1. On one line copper tubes from supplier are passed through straightening machine. 2. One another line aluminum strips from large rolls are punched slightly with diameter slightly smaller than copper tube Dia. 3. Then square blanks are produced from them to make a single fin.

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(Aluminum fins can be produced on double action punching and blanking machine or two different machines) 4. Then fins are stacked on copper tube at assembly station. 5. The tubes are bended to produce evaporator or condenser. The size depends upon the capacity of air conditioner. 6. The ends are then soldered. Machine specification: Tube straightener: Capacity Range Tube OD 1.5 8mm, speed 18 m/min Hi speed punching n blanking machine. 500 kN, 30 parts per stroke, 10 stokes per minute Soldering: soldering is manually done to assure leak proof quality. 1 part/ minute

Evaporator coils manufacturing steps

Front grill: 1. Plastic granules are used in injection molding machine to produce front grill of air conditioner cast depending on the model under manufacturing. 2. The molded panel has sharp corners and plastic hangovers; they are removed in trimming process. Machine specification: Injection molding. 80 oz. shot, 7.02 BTB Trimming is usually done by hand.

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Front grill manufacturing steps

Expansion Valve: Expansion valve is a precise electrical component and usually purchased from suppliers. Thermostat: This component is also purchased. Air filters: Air filters can be produced by plastic injection molding and then assembly with filter fabric, but usually these are also purchased in AC manufacturing as air filters are usually cheap. Control panel: It is sophisticated electronic circuit and usually purchased from supplier.

2.4. Outdoor Unit Manufacturing Process

Metal casing: Outdoor unit case has same manufacturing process as indoor unit case except the size is different. 1. For casing, metal sheets are first sheared on metal cutting machine according to the dimensions 2. It is then punched to produce slots and holes for assembly and mountings. 3. Punched sheets are then bended to produce corners and sides of casing. 4. Finally they are powder coated and dried under UV light to give an aesthetic look and corrosion resistance. 5. Sheet metal casing is then conveyed to the assembly station.

Outdoor metal casing manufacturing steps

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Specifications: Hydraulic Shearing machine: 2000 kN, 8-10 strokes per minute Punching machine: 1500 kN, 10 strokes per minute Bending/folding machine: stroke length 50 inch, 3 strokes per minute Powder coating /painting: 1 part per minute Condenser coils: This process is same as evaporator manufacturing, except the dimensions are different 1. On one line copper tubes from supplier are passed through straightening machine. 2. One another line aluminum strips from large rolls are punched slightly with diameter slightly smaller than copper tube Dia. 3. Then square blanks are produced from them to make a single fin. (Aluminum fins can be produced on double action punching and blanking machine or two different machines) 4. Then fins are stacked on copper tube at assembly station. 5. The tubes are bended to produce evaporator or condenser. The size depends upon the capacity of air conditioner. 6. The ends are then soldered. Machine specification: Tube straightener: Capacity Range Tube OD 1.5 8mm, speed 18 m/min Hi speed punching n blanking machine. 500 kN, 30 parts per stroke, 10 stokes per minute Soldering: soldering is manually done to assure leak proof quality. 1 part/ minute

Condenser coil manufacturing steps

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Cooling fan: 1. Plastic granules are used in injection molding machine to produce cooling fan blades of air conditioner depending on the model under manufacturing. 2. If the molded panel has sharp corners and plastic hangovers; they are removed in trimming process. 3. Fan motor is purchased from supplier and conveyed to assembly station where it is joined with fan blades.

Machine specification: Injection molding. 21 oz. shot, 14 BTB

Fan manufacturing steps

Compressor: Hermetically sealed compressor is purchased from dealer or Daughter Company. Pressure switch: Safety pressure switch is purchased from supplier to ensure high quality. Reversing valve: In heating and cooling AC models reversing valve is installed, it is purchased from supplier.

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3. Model Enhancement 3.1. Capacity Planning

1) Initial Calculations Capacity planning is basically the process of determining the production capacity needed by an organization to meet changing demands for its products, whereas, we define capacity as the maximum amount of work that an organization is capable of completing in a given period of time. The capacity planning for our whole production system is carried out as using the following formulas:
= 5840 = = 58400 0.1

= =

5840 180 150 = = 55100 0.1 55100 = = 94.3 % 58400

5840 180 = = 56600 0.1

To summarize in the form of a table we achieve the following results after applying the above mentioned formulas to our production system. Design Capacity 58400 Effective Capacity 56600 Actual Capacity 55100 Utilization (%) 94.3 Efficiency (%) 97.3

55100 = = 97.3% 56600

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From the table we see that the Utilization rate and Efficiency are both very high, this is due to the fact that in an air conditioning production system majority machines are either hydraulically operated or are molding machines and hence for duration of one year they do not require high preventive maintenance times or frequent breakdowns. Because of this reason our system runs smoothly enough to produce a high efficiency and rate of utilization. For each machine we have carried out the same process using the above formulas and calculated the design capacity, effective capacity, actual capacity, utilization and efficiency which have been summarized in the following table.

2) Machine requirements Number of machines and capacity requirement: The Machine requirement will be calculated as
follows:

Te - the machine or resource process time that includes the actual process time, breakage, setups, and other disruptions. D Production demand per time unit C Fixed and variable costs associated to the machine/resource.
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So the Machines Will be M > Te X D In the table below we have calculated our machine requirement considering realistic data from our extend model and have achieved the following results summarized in the table below.

By taking a look at the results of the above two tables we conclude that both the efficiency and utilization of our machines are high, that is due to the fact that in an air conditioning production plant most machines are hydraulically operated as mentioned above in this report as well, therefore, during the production time span of one year very less breakdowns are encountered which keeps the machine utilization and efficiency above 95%. The machine requirement table also indicates that we have used the right amount of machines in our production system and therefore achieve quite realistic results. In the next step of capacity planning we calculate the Takt Time for our production system.
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3) Takt Time: Takt Time is determined by the following formula T=

Here, T= Takt time, e.g. [minutes of work / unit produced] Ta= Net time available to work, e.g. [minutes of work / day] Td = Time demand (customer demand), e.g. [units required / day] For our production system, Ta = 960 Mins/day Td = 156 Units/day T= 960 = = 6.1 156

3.2. Historical Data Trend

60 50 Production Volume 40 30 20 10 0 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005

Historical Data Trend 1

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The table and graph show the sales of split type air conditioner for a span of 5 years from 2005 to 2010. The data is realistic and taken from a German affiliated company PEL, which manufactures its air conditioners in Pakistan. The data given above shows the sales of the air conditioner in Pakistan during 2005 to 2010. From the above data we can conclude that over a span of 5 years an average of 64914 unit were produced. It can be clearly seen that the sales of the units were very high during the months of May, June and July. This is due to the fact that during May, June and July the weather is extremely hot and hence the demand of air conditioners significantly increases in summers, whereas, from October till March the sales were relatively less as compared to that in the summers. This is due to the fact that in winters since the use of air conditioners is not required therefore the sales drop. Another interesting fact that can be seen from the above data is that year to year the sales increase more and more. This can be explained by the fact that since the population is increasing and constructions are ongoing therefore the demand and hence the sales of the air conditioners are increasing as the years progress. This can be shown by the following graph
14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Jan/04 May/05 Oct/06 Time Feb/08 Jul/09 Nov/10 Apr/12

Production Volume

Thousands

Historical Data Trend 2

3.2.1. Our Forecasting

From the given data that we have presented above we can conclude that our product i.e. an Air Conditioner has a Seasonal plus Trend characteristic. Since the demand of an air conditioner increases during the summer season therefore it is categorized as a seasonal time series model. The concept of trend comes from the fact that over the years the demand of air conditioners are increasing more and more compared to the previous years as the population is increasing rapidly and ongoing constructions are in progress which causes the demand of air conditioners to increase more as the years progress. The graph drawn above shows a clear trend in its pattern.

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In our next task using the historical data presented above we forecast the production of air conditioners for the year 2011. To do this we have used 4 different forecasting methods and compared them to one another.

3.2.2. Forecasting Methods

Following are the 4 forecasting methods that we have used for our model 1. Nave Forecast 2. Simple Moving Average 3. Weighted Moving Average 4. Exponential Smoothing (Halt Winters Method) or Triple Exponential Smoothing 1. Nave Forecast: The first method that we tried for forecasting was a relatively simple method known as the nave forecast. The nave forecast method is a time series method in which the forecast for the next period equals the demand for the current period. According to the nave forecast method the forecasted value of our air conditioners in 2011 would be equal to the demand of 2010. But since we follow a seasonal pattern along with a trend the nave forecast method cannot be applied to our system and hence we would not consider the results produced by this method suitable for forecasting the demand for 2011. The results which we achieved from this method along with the graph are shown below.

Production Volume

14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan/04

May/05

Oct/06

Feb/08 Time

Jul/09

Nov/10

Apr/12

Aug/13

Naive Forecast

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From the data and graph it is clearly seen that the forecast of 2011 is exactly the same as 2010 and no trend has been followed. Hence in our case the nave forecast method is not an ideal method. 2. Simple Moving Average: The 2nd forecasting method used is the simple moving average method. Its a time series method used to estimate the average of a demand time series by averaging the demand for the n most recent time periods. The following formula was used to calculate the forecasted value +1 = + 1 + . +1 =

Where, = Actual demand in period t n = Total number of periods in the average +1 = Forecast for period t+1 = -

The error in forecast is then calculated using

Where, = Forecast error for period t = Forecast for period t = Actual demand in period t

Using the historical data presented above in this report along with the mentioned formulas of simple moving average we calculated our forecasted value for 2011. The table below indicates the detailed results which we obtained. To show the behavior of the data, a graph for the simple moving average method is also drawn.

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14000 12000 10000 Production Volume 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan/04 May/05 Oct/06 Feb/08 Time Jul/09 Nov/10 Apr/12 Aug/13

From the above graph it can be clearly seen that, for a seasonal plus trend characteristic type data, the simple moving average method is not suitable and therefore must be avoided for such data sets. This method does not follow the trend line as seen. This type of method can be used when the demand has no pronounced trend or seasonal influences. The forecasted error for this method has still been calculated and displayed in the following table Forecast for 2011 Demand for 2010 Forecast for 2010 Error in forecasting 3. Weighted Moving Average: The 3rd time series method which we applied to our data is the weighted moving average method. In this method each historical demand in the average can have its own weight; the sum of the weights equal to 1. Similar to the simple moving average method, we applied this method on our historical data. The results of this method are shown in the table below. 64914.17 97540 58389 39151

For better illustration of what we achieve, a graph has been plotted using the above data.

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14000 12000 Production Volume 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 Jan/04 May/05 Oct/06 Feb/08 Time Jul/09 Nov/10 Apr/12 Aug/13

By taking a look at the graph we conclude that the weighted moving average method produced better results for our case as compared to the simple moving average method but still it does not produce what is required by a seasonal plus trend characteristic. Therefore we can say that for a seasonal plus trend type data the weighted moving average method is not particularly suited. The weighted moving average forecast lags behind demand because it merely averages past demands. This lag is noticeable because of the presence of a trend. One advantage of this method is that it allows emphasizing recent demands over earlier demands. 4. Exponential Smoothing (Halt Winters Method) or Triple Exponential Smoothing: The 4rth and final forecasting method that we have used for our system is the Halt Winters Method. It is also known as triple exponential smoothing and is considered a part of Exponential smoothing. The exponential smoothing method is a sophisticated weighted moving average method that calculates the average of a time series by giving recent demands more weights than earlier demands. Simple exponential smoothing models work best with data where there are no trend or seasonality components to the data. When the data exhibits either an increasing or decreasing trend over time, simple exponential smoothing forecasts tend to lag behind observations. Double exponential smoothing is designed to address this type of data series by taking into account any trend in the data. However, neither of these exponential smoothing models addresses any seasonality in the data therefore; we used the Triple Exponential Smoothing method. Triple exponential smoothing also known as the Winters method is a refinement of the popular double exponential smoothing model but adds another component which takes into account any seasonality or periodicity in the data.

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The following formulas are used in the Triple exponential smoothing method = + (1 )(1 + 1 ) a) Overall Smoothing:

Where, = exponentially smoothed average of the series in period t 1 = Trend estimate last period = smoothing parameter for the average, with a value between 0 and 1 b) Smoothing of the trend factor: = ( 1 ) + (1 )1

Where, = exponentially smoothed average of the trend in period t = exponentially smoothed average of the series in period t 1 = Trend estimate last period 1 = Average = smoothing parameter for the trend, with a value between 0 and 1 c) Smoothing of the seasonal factor: = ( ) + (1 )

Where, = seasonal index factor = observed value at time t = smoothing parameter for the seasonality, with a value between 0 and 1 c = the number of periods in the seasonal pattern The forecast for the next period is then calculated using = ( + )

Where,

After using the above formulas on our historical data, we achieve the following forecasted values for our system which is shown below along with its graph.
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= forecasted value at time t

smoothing parameters

0.6 0.5 -

The forecasted data in the form of a plot are shown below

25000 Production Volume 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan/04

May/05

Oct/06

Feb/08 Time

Jul/09

Nov/10

Apr/12

Aug/13

From the graph it can be clearly seen that while using the triple exponential smoothing method our forecasted value for 2011 follows the same trend pattern that has been adopted over the recent years and hence we can conclude that the Halt Winters methods is the ideal method to use for a seasonal data which follows a trend. Using this method we have forecasted a demand of 115062.5 units for the year 2011. The following graph shows the effect the smoothing parameters have. We used the values of alpha 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.9 and a slight difference can be visible on the above graph.
25000 20000 15000 10000 5000 0 Jan/04 alpha 0.4 alpha 0.5 alpha 0.6 alpha 0.7 alpha 0.9 aplha 0.4 May/05 Oct/06 Feb/08 Jul/09 Nov/10 Apr/12 Aug/13

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3.3. Aggregate Planning

Aggregate planning is an operational activity that does an aggregate plan for the production process, in advance of 2 to 18 months, to give an idea to management as to what quantity of materials and other resources are to be procured and when, so that the total cost of operations of the organization is kept to the minimum over that period. The aggregate planning for our system is given below. Case 1: Even Production with no out sourcing. In this we evenly divided the entire annual forecast into 12 months, in initial months when demand is less than production, the extra parts go into inventory to be used in peak months to compensate for high demand. But this method causes backlog and which in turn increases customer dissatisfaction and total cost. Cost (Krones) Production cost Regular time Over Time Subcontract Inventory Back orders All values are multiple of 1000 2.5 2.9 3.5 0.3 0.6

=ABS(MIN(0,((F41+F46+F42+F43)-F39)))

Case 2: Out sourcing and zero backlog. Now our main concern is to plan according to forecast and capacity to remove backlog and decrease the amount of inventory. We did this by increasing the number of shifts of production and Out sourcing the manufacturing to daughter or privet producer. To get zero backlog and minimum inventory, we used EXCEL SOLVER.
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3.4. Bill of Materials and Product Structure Tree

A bill of materials (BOM) is a list of the raw materials, sub-assemblies, intermediate assemblies, sub-components, components, parts and the quantities of each needed to manufacture an end product. In our case we have made a Bill of material along with the Product structure tree for our air conditioning system. A product structure tree is a visual depiction of the requirements in a bill of materials where all components are listed by levels. The Product structure tree of our air conditioning system is shown below. We have two product structure trees as our outdoor air conditioning unit and indoor air conditioning unit are both manufactured and packaged separately.

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Air conditioner Outdoor Unit Product Structure Tree

Level 0

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

Casing CasCon Assembly Compressor Pressure Switch Fan Outdoor Unit Motor Assembly Motor Referigerant Solenoid Valve Valves Expansion Valve Thermostat Pakaging Condenser

Paint Bent Tubes Aluminium Fins Plastic

Aluminum Sheets Copper Tubes Aluminium Strips

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Air conditioner Indoor Unit Product Structure Tree

Level 0

Level 1

Level 2

Level 3

Level 4

Casing CasEvap Assembly Blower Pressure Switch Plastic Grill Indoor Unit Air Filter Solenoid Valve Valves Drainage Pipe Remote Control Expansion Valve Evaporator

Paint Bent Tubes Aluminium Fins

Aluminum Sheets Copper Tubes Aluminium Strips

No. Lvl ID Description 1 0 OU0001 Outdoor Unit 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 1 1 CC0001 CA0001 CN0001 PA0001 BT0001 AF0001 AS0001 CT0001 AS0001 CO0001 PS0001

Specification Supplier Assembled ASTS Sub CasCon Assembly Assembly Casing Condenser Paint 0,5 Berger Bent Tubes 200 cm One star Aluminum Fins 150 cm One star Aluminum Sheets 200 sq. cm One star Copper Tubes 200 cm One star Aluminum Strips 150 cm One star Compressor Kiloskar Pressure Switch Kiloskar

Each Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Liters Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs

Qty/Pcs. 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 46 47 48 49

1 2 2 3 1 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 2 2 3 3 3 4 4 4 1 1 2 3 3 1 2 2 1 1 1 1 1 1

M0001 FA0001 MO0001 PL0001 Rf0001 V0001 SV0001 EV0001 TH0001 W0001 R0001 N0001 B0001 PK0001 IU0001

Motor Assembly

Fan Motor Plastic Refrigerant Valves Solenoid Valve Expansion Valve Thermostat Wiring Rivets Nuts Bolts Packaging Indoor Unit CasEvap CE0001 Assembly CA0002 Casing EV0001 Evaporator PA0002 Paint BT0002 Bent Tubes AF0002 Aluminum Fins AS0002 Aluminum Sheets CT0002 Copper Tubes AS0002 Aluminum Strips BW0001 Blower PS0002 Pressure Switch G0001 Grill PL0002 Plastic AF0001 Air Filter V0002 Valves SV0002 Solenoid Valve EV0002 Expansion Valve DR0001 Drainage Pipe RC0001 Remote Control W0002 Wiring R0002 Rivets N0002 Nuts B0002 Bolts

Sub Assembly 27 cm dia 230 Volts 5 800 m Assembled Sub Assembly 0,5 150 cm 150 cm 200 cm 150 cm 150 cm 230 Volts 200 800 m -

Pcs

1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 -

Full tech Pcs Shenzhen Power Motor Pcs Rich forth Pcs Camec Bars Vstar Pcs Vstar Pcs Vstar Pcs Kiloskar Pcs Golden Star Meters Golden Star Pcs Golden Star Pcs Golden Star Pcs TPak Pcs ASTS Pcs Berger One star One star One star One star One star Fulltech Kiloskar Rich forth One star Vstar Vstar Vstar ADS Universal Electronics Golden Star Golden Star Golden Star Golden Star Pcs Pcs Pcs Liters Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Pcs Meters Pcs Meters Pcs Pcs Pcs

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3.5. Master Production Schedule

A master production schedule (MPS) is a plan for production, staffing, inventory, etc. It is usually linked to manufacturing where the plan indicates when and how much of each product will be demanded. This plan quantifies significant processes, parts, and other resources in order to optimize production. MPS accuracy and viability dramatically affect profitability. A master production schedule may be necessary for organizations to synchronize their operations and become more efficient. An effective MPS ultimately will: Give production, planning, purchasing, and management the information to plan and control manufacturing. Tie overall business planning and forecasting to detail operations. Enable marketing to make legitimate delivery commitments to warehouses and customers Increase the efficiency and accuracy of a company's manufacturing

Given Below is our MPS table for next four months. The time bucket is taken as one week. And on hand inventory from last month is 12290 units. The MPS quantity is selected to satisfy the inventory so its level must remain above zero to avoid backlog and delay.

On hand= 12290 Forecast Orders projected inventory MPS Quantity

April 1 3081 2700 6128 0 2 3081 2500 3047 0 3 3081 3150 2897 3000 4 3081 3200 2697 3000 1 3744 2600 1953 3000 2

May 3 3744 465 3000 4 3744 3850 615 4000 1 4830 3850 285 4500 2

June 3 4830 3500 625 5000 4 4830 795 5000 1 4275 4200 1020 4500 2

July 3 4275 4400 280 4000 4 4275 3800 5 4000

3744 2950 1209 3000

4830 455 5000

4275 4340 680 4000

MRP: Material requirements planning (MRP) is a production planning and inventory control system used to manage manufacturing processes An MRP system is intended to simultaneously meet three objectives: Ensure materials are available for production and products are available for delivery to customers. Maintain the lowest possible level of inventory. Plan manufacturing activities, delivery schedules and purchasing activities.

With the use bill of material we will get the part level and with MPS we will plan the receipt of individual parts to make sub-assemblies and then final product.
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With the use of excel we have developed MRP for every part required for the final receipt of product at different points on timeline. MRP for next four months is given below.

Rather than ordering for each receipt, for small parts we can order a batch requirement of two receipts and store in inventory.

For parts in level 4, the planned release time goes back to 4, 5 weeks from final planned product receipt.

There are many software tools available for assisting MRP. They provide different solutions to make understanding easy. We have used SMART DRAW to produce a time line that contains the material planned releases and receipts to provide visual demonstration of first order.

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3.6. Economic order quantity (EOQ)

Economic order quantity is the level of inventory that minimizes the total inventory holding costs and ordering costs. It is one of the oldest classical production scheduling models. There are three cost components in ordering process The purchase cost of the material, (often in unit cost) The ordering cost - related to order preparation, communication, receiving costs etc The holding cost the storing and handling cost. In order to decrease our cost we determine the optimum order size that can balance inventory holding cost and re-ordering cost. () = () = () () 2 = 2 () () ()

To get the optimum order size, we equate AOC vs. AHC, which reveals the following result.

In our model we have selected five annual demands, and compares it with different order size to get AOC and AHC for every product.

38

39

AHC
450000 400000 350000 300000 250000 200000 150000 100000 50000 0 0 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 AOC 1 AOC 2 AOC 3 AOC 4 AOC 5 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 AHC

Because our demand is much more than the EOQ, so this method is not feasible for our model at the moment for any part. And we will stick to our MRP schedule.

3.7. CODP - Customer order decoupling point

The CODP defines a point of time when an order of anonymous-stock production becomes a customer order. Two logistic control loops meet here. Based on the principles of make to stock, make to order, assemble to order and engineer to order there is a customerindependent production of parts or subassemblies to stock. This first part follows a kind of forecast-based push-strategy whereas the second part is kind of customer-order driven pullstrategy. Physically the decoupling point defines the last stock where parts or assemblies are stored without a certain reference to an order.

40

The APICS dictionary defines the CODP as follows: The locations in the product structure or distribution network where inventory is placed to create independence between processes or entities. Selection of decoupling points is a strategic decision that determines customer lead times and inventory investment. The following graphic shows possible points in the production process including their designation.

The decision about which strategic point to chose results in a trade-off between increased lead times/lost opportunities and increased inventory/risk obsolescence. The later the CODP is set within the production process, the more inventory has to be kept to be able to offer the whole product variety. This results in a very high responsiveness and is very useful if demand is stable and predictable. Many companies prefer this type of setting the CODP with their more popular products, e.g. McDonalds will make Veggie Burgers to order but always have a stock of finished Cheese Burgers, because there is usually a stable demand for Cheese Burgers. Dell is a good example for a company that has its CODP set at a more early stage in the production process; PCs and Laptops are assembled according to customer orders resulting in high flexibility and lower inventories. It is therefor necessary to evaluate factors such as product popularity, life cycle and other reasons that could lead to demand fluctuation. In order to make a good choice for the CODP placement for our production of air conditioners we are presenting three possible solutions, which are depicted in the next pictures. Solution 1: CODP after final assembly If we had less variety in our production program, it would be a very reasonable decision to assemble the components and store the finished products. As we deal with products from a product family consisting of some similar parts, we can reduce our whole inventory by waiting with the assemblies until we have an actual customer order.

41

Solution 2: CODP before assembly one Placing the CODP before the first assembly is the least reasonable alternative. By waiting with the assembly of the outdoor and indoor unit we do not change anything regarding overall inventories as the parts need to be assembled to the units regardless what model is to be produced. The amount of parts has to be determined before manufacturing their components and by not assembling them afterwards response time would increase without any gain.

42

Solution 3: CODP before Subassembly two In consideration of the fact, that the individualization of the four variants start at the assembly of the indoor and outdoor units, the costumer order decoupling point should be placed there to ensure the meet of customer needs in case of demand variations. An aggregated demand for the subparts is much easier to forecast and demand fluctuations between different models can be met. When an order for a specific model arrives the second assembly can be initiated and due to its lower complexity and shorter assembly time, the order can be fulfilled in a reasonable time. Response time does not change significantly but the inventory is kept lower then before.

3.8. KanBan
KanBan differs in essential elements of the commonly used central production planning and control, which was created in a Taylorist oriented environment. In the centrally organized production planning and control all tasks are performed by name by central agencies. Planning is based on sales and order forecasts. With the aim of high capacity utilization there are often high batch sizes and long lead times. Furthermore there is a high probability of bad planning, because planning and doing units are not the same. In cause of complex interactions between the elements of the PPS there is mostly a high coordination effort and a lack of flexibility in this so called push system. To get over this, one can use KanBan: The principle of the Kanban system is simple, what not implicates that the implementation is easy as well: KanBan is a system that performs, in contrast to the traditional method where material is passed on to subsequent operations, the transfer in the opposite direction. As a kind of Just-in-time method the downstream operation takes items from the upstream just in the time and in the number where it is currently a need. The system is to simplify communication by unique labels with information about what is needed and in which quantity the so called KanBan. If material is needed (i.e. because a stock falls below minimum) and only then
43

the upstream process is asked to provide new material. This asking is represented by using a Kanban (card, paper), which is generally transported with the goods with each batch and is returned at the dawn of the lot to the new delivery. Strict rules apply to the production, especially the principle that there should be manufacturing only in the case, when a KanBan is coming up. Only correct parts may be transported. If there is no intervene the KanBan system is a self-controlled cycle system. Thus, the conventional time-based management methods are replaced by a demand-oriented control a pull system. Before implementing a KanBan system one has to identify whether the specific conditions for the use of KanBan are met. Mostly, a new effective system requires a large amount of changes within the company. Takeda lists seven essential conditions that must be met. We will have a look, whether our production is able to use KanBan or which changes have to be done to meet the requirements: 1. Build a flow production The production program must be placed in uniform flow. That means the degree of standardization has to be increased and the production must be strictly timed. Within our air conditioner production line we meet this condition. We have only a small variety in the products, which leads to high standardization. As one can see out of the model, the production is strictly timed. 2. Reducing batch sizes In order to achieve just-in-time production the conventional optimization of lot sizes must be waived. No overproduction should be made. In our production we can easily adopt this condition. 3. Smoothed production Because KanBan systems take part on several stages of production, avoiding large fluctuations and the detailed pilling of production on the last stage is extremely important. Any unforeseen change would be apllied to the upstream stages and lead to stress. This would lead to stocks (and furthermore waste). In case of our production line, we have to implement a planning unit at the last stage of the production. 4. Reduction and harmonization of transport cycles The reduction of inventory requires increased transportation effort. To avoid a lack of material at the sinks the transportation of the material has to be guaranteed. Because there is now no optimized transport flow in use, this has to be implemented first in our production line, before using KanBan.

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5. Continuous production By using KanBan a consistent utilization of the production units is reached. This has to be done by suitable sizing and standardizing of the KanBan System. Generally, special orders have to be handed as well, which is not applying to our production. 6. Determination of the addresses Since the material flow is controlled by cards, every consuming and producing unit as well as buffer stocks and all items need a unique name. Thus a precise allocation of the cards, materials and containers is possible. The system must be kept as transparent and simple as possible in order to avoid mistakes. The determination of names and addresses is shown in the figure at the end of this chapter. The variance of products is due to simplification in MRP not given anymore. 7. Consistent container management Containers perform several tasks in transportation. They ensure the damage-free transportation of the products and give the number and type of content. While choosing a container one has to watch the needs of the next process. The container should be as small as possible. Smaller parts of our production are transported in containers, subassemblies in moveable pallets. Additionally to the seven steps of Takeda, there is another important condition: the quality issue. Currently we have just one quality control at the end of the line. A quality management system, consisting of automatic quality control, self control by labor worker and process controls has to be implemented to ensure the transportation of correct parts to the downstream unit. Because our solution involves the suppliers as well while working with KanBan we have to check the suppliers, whether they are able to work with us in this just-in-time environment. A long-term relationship has to be established to ensure quality and quantity at the required time. The production of air conditioners, like we are doing in our model and changed it to the new conditions, seems to fit very well to the conditions of KanBan. For implementation of KanBan there are a lot of things to do. Following roadmap gives an overview about upcoming tasks for implementation: a. Conduct data collection (necessary to characterize your production process) b. Calculate the KanBan Size (calculate out of current conditions) c. Design the KanBan (questions to concider: How is material controlled? What are the visual signals? Who is responsible? What training will be required? What is the implementation schedule?) d. Train everyone e. Start the KanBan f. Audit and maintain the KanBan g. Improve the KanBan
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46

Instead of using 1 KanBan like calculated one should chose 2 KanBan in this situation. Because the Compressors are just taken from the stock, there should be 2 KanBan as well. After implementation we are sure that we can reach the following advantages with using the KanBan System: adaptive potential for short-term changes in demand inventory reductions increase in volume efficiency transition of nested production systems to self-running loops increase in transparency of process relations increase in motivation of employees through responsibility in control loops
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3.8. Scheduling
Even though it was not part of the lecture, we wanted to round off the picture of production planning by looking into scheduling as well. Scheduling is a very powerful tool in manufacturing and engineering that has a major impact on the productivity of a process. While manufacturing is aiming to minimize the production time and cost by schedule processes in time, resources and labors, production schedulings purpose is to maximize the efficiency of the operation and to reduce costs. Tools are used in all the cases because scheduling always shows up as a mathematical complex optimization problem. Even with the use of computers, it is a time consuming, tedious task. Tools often provide graphical interfaces, which can be easily used to improve real-time workloads. Heavy algorithms are used here to solve the minimization/maximization problems. A current trend shows up, that the conventional shop scheduling turns into project scheduling while associating every process as an own project. Project scheduling is currently under great focus within the manufacturing planning research. An easy rule applies for scheduling: the better the information and the model, the better the production scheduling. Benefits of production scheduling show up as follows: Process changeover reduction Inventory reduction, leveling Reduced scheduling effort (rescheduling) Increased production efficiency Labor load leveling Accurate delivery date quotes Real time information

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49

A1. References
Data Mining: http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/time-series-analysis/#seasonal Operation Management 8e Process and value chains by Krajewski, Ritzman and Malhotra Forecasting: Operation Management 8e Process and value chains by Krajewski, Ritzman and Malhotra Time series Forecasting using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing by Prajakta S. Kalekar, Kanwal Rekhi School of Information Technology holt-winters forecasting: some practical issues by Chatfield and Yar http://www.statsoft.com/textbook/time-series-analysis/#seasonal Operation Management 8e Process and value chains by Krajewski, Ritzman and Malhotra http://www.mxisoft.com/blog/bid/48679/Exponential-smoothing-and-Sales-forecasting-software http://www.it.iitb.ac.in/~praj/acads/seminar/04329008_ExponentialSmoothing.pdf http://vbautomation.110mb.com/FORECASTING/exponential_smoothing_with_seasonality.htm http://www.duke.edu/~rnau/411outbd.htm Aggregate planning: Aggregate Planning by Utdallas.edu (presentation) http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggregate_planning
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MPS: http://www.transtutors.com/homework-help/Industrial+Management/Production+Planning+And+Control/master-production-schedule.aspx http://exceltemplates.net/company-activities/master-production-schedule/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Master_production_schedule MRP: Bruggeman, J. J., and S. Haythornthwaite. The Master Schedule. Lunn, Terry, and Susan Neff. MRP: Integrating Material Requirements Planning and Modern Business http://www.ifm.eng.cam.ac.uk/dstools/process/mrp.html http://www.scribd.com/doc/24340782/Master-Production-Scheduling CODP: http://www.ssi-schaefer.de/news-infocenter/logistik-lexikon/word/customer_order_decoupling_point.html Chopra and Meindl: Supply Chain Management, Pearson 2007 http://www.competence-site.de/pps-systeme/Customer-order-decoupling-point-CODP http://thalys.gr/pagesuk/technicalissues/management/production-management/production_managment_production_management._p11.htm James F. Cox, CFPIM; Effective Placement of Manufacturing Inventories; 1989 APICS International Conference Proceedings http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Order_fulfillment http://www.vnl.at/Entkopplungspunkt.217.0.html

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KanBan: http://www.kanbanconsult.de/kanban.htm VORTEILE http://www.it-production.com/index.php?seite=einzel_artikel_ansicht&id=20220 FUNKTIONSWEISE http://www.lepros.de/hybrides-kanban.php VORTEILE und Einsatzgebiete Kanban - made simple, Gross and Mcinnis, American Managment Association 2003 USA Hussein M. Reda (1987): A review of kanban - the japanese just in time production system, in Engineering Managment International, Issue 4, 1987, p. 143-150 Horst Wildemann (1995): Implementation strategies for the integration of japanese Kanban principles in German companies, in: Engineering costs and production economics, Isue 9, 1995, p. 305-319 Scheduling: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/scheduling_(production_processes) giraffeproductionssystems.net Glossary: Lecture Notes Wikipedia.org vln.at (Verein Netzwerk Logistic) competence-site.de

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A2. Appendix
Capacity Planning
2 hour discussion on capacity planning and extend model. All group members were present. Meeting held around 2 pm in KTH Library

Forecasting

Aggregate Planning

MPS and MRP

Kanban

18.02.11

2 hour group discussion on the forecasting methods and research on different methods which could suit our model. All group members were present and rough calculations were made 22.02.11 Brief discussion on forecasting again and the Halt Winters method was analyzed in detail after reading the literature the previous night.

24.02.11

Group discussion on aggregate planning on how to implement it to our system. Brain storming was carried out and literature was searched for reading. Meeting took place at KTH Library at 3 pm.

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25.02.11 Aggregate planning finalized after reading the literature over the weekend and all group members sat down and gave their input as to how it should be preceded. Meeting took place in M block/ Literature collected to precede MPS and MRP. Had a detailed study of both in the KTH Library. All members were present. Almost 3 hr group discussion 01.03.11

28.02.11

Compilation of Capacity planning into report was Compilation of forecasting carried out here we worked in carried out by the other two group of two. Two people group members. In the end the worked on writing capacity parts were interchanged planning in report format between the groups to have a whereas the other two worked look and provide with on forecasting. End result necessary feedbacks. capacity planning successfully completed.

02.03.11

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04.03.11

Another group meeting on aggregate planning. The tables and results for formulated on excel but yet to be placed in the final report. All group members were present Aggregate planning finalized and put into report. All group members present. MPS and MRP Tables developed on excel. All members present at KTH Lib. MPS and MRP Finalized. Put into report format. Work carried out at KTH Library. Literature review on kanban started at 3 pm in M block. Kanban model built and discussed with a few complications but still solved. All members were present. Amins input was taken through Skype Kanban put into report in its final format. The complete report finalized.

05.03.11

06.03.11 07.03.11

09.03.11

10.03.11

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