Low Emission Development Strategies Will Change the World

Orestes Anastasia USAID Regional Development Mission for Asia Asia Clean Energy Forum, Manila, June 24, 2011

Presentation Overview

What is a Low Emission Development Strategy? LEDS components US Government LEDS initiatives

Origin of LEDS
A low emission development strategy is indispensable for sustainable development Copenhagen Accord, December 2009

Decides that developed countries should develop low carbon strategies or plans
Encourages developing countries to develop low carbon development strategies or plans in the context of sustainable development Cancun Agreements, December 2010

What is a Low Emission Development Strategy?

A LEDS is a country-owned national strategy for transformative, long-term, resilient economic growth that includes options for slowing the growth of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions.

Designed and implemented appropriately, a LEDS will:

Provide an integrated comprehensive pathway for long-term, sustainable development Take into account a countrys development objectives and unique circumstances Promote transformational development Help a country meet international climate change commitments Help countries access financing from public and private sources

LEDS is smart development:

Countries that develop and implement LEDS will be best positioned to benefit from the new global low carbon future.

What is included in a LEDS?

Typical components of a robust LEDS include: 1. An outline of national development goals and key drivers of growth 2. A summary of economic data and an national GHG emissions inventory 3. A long-term projections of business-as-usual development and GHG emissions (may consider various development pathways) 4. Vulnerability assessments for threats to economic development, including climate change, security, etc. 5. A list of prioritized alternative actions that increase economic growth, ensure resilience, and lower the long-term emissions trajectory 6. Implementation and financing plans for high-priority actions (linked to national budgets)

A LEDS should be comprehensive

Sustainable growth
Sustainable Growth

Food Security

Energy Security

More efficient agricultural practices can promote economic growth and increase food production Investments in clean energy could protect agriculture and promote economic growth

Development Strategy
Climate Resilience
Are agriculture investments and practices resilient to possible changes in climate? Are energy investments resilient to climate change?

Economic Growth

Climate Resilience

Shown objectives are illustrative only

Economic growth, development, and reduced emissions are important LEDS objectives
The LEDS process helps countries evaluate policy/program options based upon relative costs and long-term economic and GHG impactsand lead to actionable recommendations.

GHG Emissions (Tg CO2-e)

GDP ($B)

Essential qualities of a LEDS

Analytically sound
Reproducible, documented, transparent, based on accepted techniques, etc.

Comprehensive
(Of) important sectors of the economy, development objectives, etc.

Forward-looking and long term

Set a vision about what to achieve and work backwards Set targets based on what it estimates could be achieved

Actionable
Can the government, donors, IFCs, and other stakeholders readily take and implement pieces of the strategy?

Country-owned
Can policy makers revisit the assumptions made in the strategy at will, does it feed into the countrys decision-making and budgeting apparatus? Support a countrys international engagement on climate?

Transformative

US Government LEDS Initiative

Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS) worldwide initiative
Asia Region: Low Emissions Asian Development (LEAD) Program Country programs

US Government Partners:
USAID (lead) US Department of State US Environmental Protection Agency US Department of Energy US Department of Agriculture (Forest Service)

The USG EC-LEDS Program

Objective: To support developing country efforts to pursue long-term, transformative development and accelerate sustainable economic growth while slowing the growth of GHG emissions Approach: Leverage experience and expertise of US Government agencies and others to: Enhance partner country capacity through targeted technical assistance Develop a shared global knowledge base on LEDS

Enhancing Capacity for Low Emission Development Strategies (EC-LEDS)

Provides targeted technical assistance for LEDS development and implementation:
Enhance and strengthen existing strategies, plans, systems, and processes that support development of a LEDS Strengthen human and institutional capacity, provide and adapt analytic tools and practices Assist with the implementation of actionable projects and programs articulated in a countrys LEDS

Builds a shared, international knowledge base on LEDS:

Donor coordination, outreach, best practices, and tools

End Results
Cross-sectoral, robust analyses of GHG mitigation options Improved ability of countries to perform analyses: GHG accounting, GHG and economic modeling, cost benefit analysis, etc. Improved government capacity to develop, implement, and update its LEDS Strategies and plans describing concrete mitigation activities Realistic, implementable actions; prioritized, actionable, financeable mitigation actions developed with financing plans linked to national budgets National-level LEDSs under development or already in place, with key components being implemented

Example Interim Product: Marginal Abatement Cost Curve to analyze costs and benefits and inform establishment of goals

Example Product: Graphical representation of economy-wide emission reduction goals

Source: Project Catalyst, Low Carbon Growth Plans Advancing Good Practice (2009).

Example Product: Indicators to measure LEDS contribution to MDGs

Source: Davidson, Ogunlade et al, The Development and Climate Nexus: The Case of Sub-Saharan Africa (2003). Climate Policy 3S1.

Example Product: Pathways Analysis

Technical analysis and stakeholder review Multiple deployment scenarios for technologies and climate measures Likelihood for each scenario to achieve goals Elaborated deployment pathways (sectoral and cross-sector) Stakeholder review of potential deployment scenarios Selection of deployment pathways (including specific deployment goals)

Example Inputs
Example Inputs: Outputs from previous stage, market statistics and projections, emission factors

Example USG Technical Support

Energy and economic modeling support (National Labs), technology characterization data analysis (DOE), lifecycle assessment (EPA and Labs)

Product
Sectoral and economy wide pathways for deployment of technologies and practices to achieve goals

Example Product: Potential Technology Deployment Pathways

Source: Energy Map for India Technology Vision 2030 (2008). TERI. url: http://www.norwayemb.org.in/NR/rdonlyres/CD92416E5 AB445C18701D0B932F07075/95330/OslopresentationLi gia28May.pdf

Thank you!

Orestes Anastasia - oanastasia@usaid.gov Khan Ram-Indra - kramindra@usaid.gov USAID Regional Development Mission for Asia Bangkok, Thailand http://asia.usaid.gov More information on LEDS:
http://en.openei.org/wiki/LEDS