Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Air Power Asia US-China Strategic Competition in Indo-Pacific
Air Power Asia US-China Strategic Competition in Indo-Pacific
Air Power Asia US-China Strategic Competition in Indo-Pacific
Indo-Pacific has become the new arena for great power rivalry. The region generally comprises the Indian
Ocean, the western and central Pacific Ocean, and the seas interlinking the two near the Indonesia archipelago.
The region had seen some great battles between the U.S. and Japanese military after the Japanese attacked Pearl
Harbour in December 1941, pulling the United States into the Second World War. China’s emergence as a
global economic and military power in the last few decades brought new attention to the Indo-Pacific region.
“China’s rise and increased activism in South Asia and the Indian Ocean region is an uncontested reality even as
Asian countries worry about the new cold war in which the U.S. and China are locked”, writes Rajiv Bhatia[1].
The Japanese suggestion to form a grouping of major democracies of the region to form a Quadrilateral
Security Dialogue, or “Quad”, comprising the United States, Australia, Japan, and India, also shifted security
focus to check the unbridled actions of China in the region.
Figure 1. Territorial Claims in the South China Sea. Image Source: moderndiplomacy.eu
Great Wall of Sand – Chinese Island Building in SCS
In recent years, China has engaged in extensive island-building and base construction in SCS. China has built 20
outposts in the Paracel Islands and seven in the Spratlys. Earlier China had seized Scarborough Shoal, in 2012.
Since 2013, China has been carrying out unprecedented dredging and artificial island-building in the Spratlys.
They have generated nearly 3,200 acres of new land. China has also had significant expansion in the Paracels.
All this has been at the cost of neighbours like Vietnam and the Philippines. James Shoal, is an entirely
submerged feature, roughly 20 meters below the surface, and only 90 kilometres from Malaysia and but nearly
1,850 kilometres far from China’s coast. Yet China calls it the “southernmost territory of China.” The Asia
Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI) of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International
Studies (CSIS) has been tracking and monitoring the island’s activities. Pictures of a few of the islands with
larger infrastructure have been reproduced below.
A Planet Skysat captured this image of the Fiery Cross Reef in the South China Sea on May 3, 2020. Fiery
Cross Reef is one of China’s seven artificial islands in the Spratly Islands and represents a continued
military presence in the region. https://www.planet.com/gallery/#!/post/fiery-cross-reef
Johnson Reef. The usable surface area of 27 acres, a military base with radar, anti-aircraft guns, a CIWS
missile-defence system, and a small harbour. Image Source: CSIS/AMTI
Subi Reef, at the Spratly Islands, is a full military base, with a significant harbour, and a 3,000 metres
(9,800 ft) airstrip. Image Source: The Japan Times.
James Shoal. Image Source: New Straits Times
From the pictures above, it can be seen that China is making significant military facilities on artificial islands and making
them launch pads, and gaining full control of the SCS.
East China Sea
East China Sea (ECS) is east of China and covers the area between Taiwan, Japan, and South Korea. Territorial sovereignty
over the Japanese administered Senkaku Islands in ECS, and the maritime boundary around them is disputed between China,
Taiwan, and Japan. Both Taiwan and Japan are close American allies, and any Chinese action against Taiwan or Japan in the
ECS would have strategic, political, and economic implications in the region.
Sen
kaku Islands. Image Source: Wikipedia
Chinese Inroads into Western Pacific
Taking a leaf from China’s success in SCS, and the Indian Ocean, China began focusing on influence across the
western Pacific. It has been literally trying to buy influence through growing aid and infrastructure investments.
The ground reality is that eight countries of Oceania, the region of Western Pacific, recognise China, and six
recognise Taiwan, resulting in continuous diplomatic competition. On the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation summit at Papua New Guinea, in 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping met most Pacific
Island leaders[7], offered partnerships, and induced them to join China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI),
offering them financial assistance. Since these were to be loans and not grants, many were concerned about
unsustainable debt, and political strings attached to Chinese aid. The hidden unsaid agenda of China is to use
port and airport projects to gain military access to the region. Many Pacific countries are small in size and have
structural vulnerabilities, and most are already heavily indebted to China.
As per the Lowy Institute’s study and analysis[8], six Pacific countries that owe a significant debt to China
include Papua New Guinea, Fiji, Samoa, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Cook Islands. Some of them are large
beneficiaries of BRI. The Solomon Islands and Kiribati, which had recognised and maintained diplomatic
relations with Taiwan, have now switched recognition to China[9]. China’s presence in the Solomon Islands has
seen private Chinese enterprises trying to acquire strategic assets for the military. The new strategy partnership
between China and Soloman Islands puts China firmly in the middle of the Pacific. As per the Lowy Institute’s
study, Chinese commitments to the region, of $5.4 billion in 2017 jumped substantially from just $374 million
in 2016. To counter Chinese influence, the United States, and allies including Australia, New Zealand, and
Japan, are renewing their diplomatic linkages in the region to counter China’s influence, and cautioning against
debt traps [10].
Image Source: Global Times
Australia also began debt-financing initiatives as part of its broader Pacific ‘step-up’. It started a $2 billion
Australian Infrastructure Financing Facility for the Pacific (AIFFP). Despite Chinese initiatives, Australia and
New Zealand still provide more than half the aid in the region and have committed to more engagement. China
was to commence building the Vaiusu wharf, a China-funded project, in Samoa. The $100 million Chinese-
backed port development has since been canceled.
China wants to establish ‘strategic pivot ports’ in Suva, Apia, Port Moresby, and Luganville (Vanuatu)[11].
China has approached Vanuatu[12], 2,000 kilometres east of Australia to build a port-cum-base to host cruise
ships, but it had the potential to service naval vessels, and become a military base. In 2019, a Chinese enterprise
made an attempt to lease the small Tulagi Island belonging to the Solomon Islands. The same was vetoed by the
local government.
Chinese Aircraft Carrier Liaoning during a training Image Source: Naval Post
In addition, PLAN[14] has 54 Attack/guided missile submarines (USN 53), 83 Cruisers, destroyers, and frigates
(USN 110), and 6 Principal amphibious ships (USN 32). Clearly, PLAN is fast catching up with USN on many
counts but is still far behind in aircraft carriers.
People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s Expanding Reach
The PLAAF is the largest air force in Asia and second-largest in the world, and as per military Balance 2020, it
has 1976 fighter/ground-attack aircraft[15], 211 bombers, 278 attack-helicopters, 395 heavy/medium transport
helicopters, 88 heavy/medium transport aircraft, 18 aerial refuellers, 29 Airborne early-warning and control
aircraft, and 29 heavy unmanned aerial vehicles. The PLAAF is catching up with the more modern Western air
forces across many aircraft and technological capabilities. PLAAF is in transition from a tactical to an air force
with a global reach. The state-owned Aviation Industry Corporation of China (AVIC) is developing and
producing state-of-the-art airborne platforms and is fast catching up with the best in the world. PLAAF has also
reoriented its flying training and tactics. There is a much greater emphasis on technological support even for
operations. The PLAAF is evolving its operational doctrine, missions, and roles, including concentrating on
long-range precision strikes. PLAAF is working on integrated air and space capabilities and coordinated
offensive and defensive operations in conjunction with the Strategic Support Force (SSF).
China’s newly commissioned nuclear-powered submarine Type 094A is armed with JL-3, or Julang,
submarine-launched ballistic missile. Image Source: islamtimes.org
Meanwhile, China will exploit the economic benefits of SCS in terms of fishing and oil and gas exploration
activities. China would also exercise political influence on the countries bordering SCS. China is already trying
to enforce an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) over the entire SCS. One day it could try a blockade around
Taiwan. SCS would then become a launchpad for China to project military force in Western Pacific. This would
pose challenges to the United States and other regional powers. It will also become more difficult for the USA
to defend allies like Japan and Taiwan, among others. The weakened USA could force some countries to switch
allegiance to more powerful China, thus weakening the U.S.-led regional security architecture.
China Claims Additional ADIZ, Encroaches Japanese ADIZ, Image Source: The Diplomat
Weakening U.S. Global Position
Since a major victory in World War II, the USA has seen stalemate in the Korean War, loss of face in Vietnam,
and not-so-great success in Kosovo. The USA also left Iraq, Syria, and Libya in a general mess. Russia’s
annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, and the inability of the USA to intervene or prevent also reflected in its
power projection limitations. The USA is trying to somewhat regain its position in the Russia-Ukraine
Conflict. After a 20-year presence and war against terror in Afghanistan, it had to withdraw leaving the country
in turmoil. For some time now, the USA has not been able to convince all its European allies to stand against
China. U.S. ability to intervene in Iran has also got weakened with Russian and Chinese support. While the USA
was busy behaving like the global policeman, and in the “War against Terror”, China was using that time in
building its economic and military might. China has made significant forays into Africa through its debt
diplomacy. The Chinese BRI is also helping it extend its influence in Central and West Asia, and in the Indian
Ocean regions. China was among the first to engage with the Taliban in Afghanistan.
Image Source: BBC
For a long, China followed Deng Xiaoping’s foreign policy guiding philosophy of “Hide your strength, bide
your time”, which h he had adopted from ancient master strategist, Sun Tzu’s advice to “Appear weak when you
are strong, and strong when you are weak.” However, Chinese strong man Xi Jinping seems a man in a hurry.
While the USA wants it to have a unipolar world and bi-polar Asia, China wants a bi-polar world and unipolar
Asia.
The U.S. is a democracy where the nation is nearly equally divided between the two major political parties. The
long Presidential election campaigns are watched by the whole world, and invariably the fissures get exposed.
On the other hand, China is relatively autocratically controlled by The Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
There is poor connectivity between the Chinese people with the rest of the world. Allegiance to the CCP is more
important than the nation. Undoubtedly the expanding economy has brought up the living standards of the
Chinese people. Because of years of humiliation meted out to China by Japan and other powers, Chinese
communist leader Mao Zedong coined the phrase “Political power grows out of the barrel of a gun”. China has
followed this to build its economic and military power. Autocratic China is thus now getting to a position to
challenge the United States. As the 18th and 19th centuries were considered “British centuries”, and 20th the
“American century”, the 21st is being called the “Chinese century”. In another decade, China will overtake the
economy of the United States to be the largest in the world.
The Russian Factor
Immediately after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the Russian economy had crumbled. The then-President
Boris Yeltsin was looking for support from the West. But the USA and the European allies’ priority was to get
the erstwhile Warsaw Pact countries into their fold. This made Russia insecure. Finally, when the Russian
economy recovered a little, and strong man Putin became all-powerful, Russia began flexing its muscle. They
again began investing in the military. They especially pushed ahead with aircraft development and hypersonic
weapons. USA and Europe always had security concerns about Russia. The West kept imposing economic
sanctions, off and on. After Russia annexed Crimea in a very smooth, well-orchestrated action, the West became
concerned and reacted with further sanctions. They also invoked the “our enemy’s friend is an enemy”
approach. In 2017, the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA) federal law was
passed by the United States. They then imposed sanctions on Iran, North Korea, and Russia.
China Overtakes the US As The World’s Major Trading Partner. Image Source: merchantmachine.co.uk
The current relationship between the two is of convenience as both are being driven into each other’s arms by
Western pressure. In the long-term, it may be in Russia’s interest to be closer to Europe. Many commentators
are of the view that the American allies should not overplay the Russian threat but must wean away Russia from
the Chinese fold, as exactly they had done in the 1970s to bring a split between the communist Soviet Union and
China.
Deployable US Military Naval and Air Assets
The U.S. Air Force (USAF) and U.S. Navy (USN) are the largest in the world. As per military Balance
2020[16], USAF has 3311, fighter/ground-attack aircraft, 157 bombers, 889 attack-helicopters, 3058
heavy/medium transport helicopters, 675 heavy/medium transport aircraft, 555 aerial refuellers, 113 Airborne
early-warning and control aircraft, and 495 heavy unmanned aerial vehicles. Clearly, on most counts, USAF’s
total assets are much larger than PLAAF’s. How many can be physically deployed in the Indo-Pacific depends
on the availability of air bases in the region. The US Navy has 11 Aircraft carriers, 53 Attack/guided missile
submarines, 110 Cruisers, destroyers, and frigates, and 32 Principal amphibious ships. The USN has a huge
airpower carrying capability.
3 US Carrier Strike Groups Hold Massive Naval Drill with South Korean, Japanese Navies in Western
Pacific. Image Source: The Diplomat
US Air and Naval Power in Western Pacific
The United States Indo-Pacific Command (USINDOPACOM) is responsible for the Indo-Pacific region.
Manned by nearly 375,000 personnel, it saw major action in Korean and Vietnam wars. Pacific Air Forces
(PACAF) is the air component command. PACAF has 334 aircraft and 31,299 airmen. PACAF includes the
Fifth Air Force for USAF operations in Japan, with the primary role to defend Japan and work closely with
Japanese forces. There are three major airbases. 18 Wing, Kadena, which has F-15C/D Eagle, E-3B/C Sentry,
HH-60G Pave Hawk, and KC-135R Stratotanker. 35 Wing, Misawa, has F-16 fighter aircraft variants. 374
Airlift Wing, Yokota, has C-12J and C-130J Hercules transport aircraft, and UH-1N Iroquois helicopters. 18th
Expeditionary Air Wing, at Kadena, also has E-8C J-DTARS.
Guam (Andersen Air Force Base). Image Source: la rente géostratégique d’une île porte-avions
The United States Pacific Fleet includes the United States 3rd and 7th Fleet, the naval surface and air assets in the
Pacific, the U.S. naval forces in Japan and Korea, Joint forces in the Marianas, and naval forces in the Hawaii
region. The 3rd Fleet covers looks after the eastern and northern Pacific which includes Alaska, the Bering Sea,
and part of the Arctic. 3rd Fleet includes the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier with 11th Carrier Strike Group; the
aircraft carrier USS Carl Vinson and 1st Carrier Strike Group; the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt and
9th Carrier Strike Group; and the aircraft carrier USS Abraham Lincoln and 3rd Carrier Strike Group. Clearly,
that is the most powerful USN fleet. The 7th Fleet is based at Yokosuka, Japan, and is the largest of all the
forward-deployed U.S. fleets. It has nearly 70 ships, and over 300 aircraft, with its 5th Carrier Strike Group
having the USS Ronald Reagan aircraft carrier.
Major America Friendly Military Assets in the Pacific Region
The Japan Air Self-Defence Force (JASDF) operates around 740 aircraft, including approximately 330 fighters.
It has a well-networked air defence radar chain fir early warning and supporting combat air patrols. Of late,
JASDF has been under increasing pressure to intercept PLAAF warplanes that have been attempting to enter
airspace around Senkaku Islands. In just one year ending March 2020, the JASDF had to scramble over 900
times in response to PLAAF aircraft incursions. JASDF operates the F-15J (155), Mitsubishi F-2 (62), and F-35
(129 on order) fighter aircraft. They have 10 air refuellers and a significant number of AEW&C aircraft. The
Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force with a fleet of over 150 ships and 350 aircraft, keeps control of the sea lanes
and patrols territorial waters. It is currently the world’s fourth-largest navy by total tonnage.
Aircraft assigned to Carrier Air Wing (CVW) 5 and Indian air force aircraft fly in formation over the
U.S. Navy’s only forward-deployed aircraft carrier, USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) on June 23, 2021, US
Navy Photo
Principle of Freedom of the Seas
One of the key goals of the U.S. is also related to freedom of the seas, and treating them as global commons.
The United States considers this the key national interest and is willing to use military forces to protect that
interest. China has chosen its own interpretation of the law of the sea that is not commensurate with general
international understanding. Its unilateral actions in the SCS have upset the status quo and challenged the
accepted principle of freedom of the seas. China also believes that it has the right to regulate and restrict the
movements of foreign military vessels and aerial platforms in its exclusive economic zones (EEZs). This
approach is meant to curtail the reach of the U.S. military to carry out reconnaissance and possible offensive
operations to support smaller democracies like Taiwan and others in case of Chinese belligerent actions. If
China gets away with its views or action, it would have an impact on power equations in the Indo-Pacific. USA
has been trying to rally all the countries that have been affected by China’s claims in the SCS. Many ASEAN
countries are conscious, and a little on the defensive from a large powerful, and belligerent neighbour like
China. China also uses its economic muscle to keep these countries in its fold. Beijing’s stubborn position and
claims based on its nine-dash line have serious implications for many ASEAN countries.
This is a screenshot of real-time traffic in the South China Sea from marinetraffic.com. This image as of
September 3, 2021, shows that the bulk of the traffic going through the SCS is to China or Hong Kong. It
actually goes in a southwest to north-east direction avoiding the Spratly Islands. Image Source: thewire.in
Freedom of Navigation Operation (FONOP)
USN has carried out an increasing number of Freedom of Navigation Operations (FONOP) in the SCS and
Taiwan Strait Transits (TST) since 2012. Of late, the PLA has been claiming that they have been driving them
away. U.S. 7th Fleet continues its operations in the region as the American commitment to upholding freedom
of navigation and lawful uses of the sea as a principle. They continue to fly, sail and operate as per international
laws[17]. In each case China raises protests and the PLAN ships and/or aircraft keep issuing warnings to the
U.S. Navy ships. Pentagon has cautioned that China’s military challenges to the US in the South China Sea have
attendant risks[18]. There are others who feel there is an increased risk of serious confrontation. China often
quotes many countries which have restrictions inconsistent with the UNCLOS, and do not allow freedom of
exercise on high seas by foreign navies even beyond 12 nautical miles from the coast. These include
Bangladesh, Brazil, Myanmar, India, Iran, Pakistan, and Vietnam among many others. Interestingly, the United
States itself is not a party to UNCLOS.
China’s “Salami-Slicing” Approach
For a long, China has been using the Salami-Slicing approach. They did this to India in Eastern Ladakh where
they have been nibbling in the Aksai Chin area. Also, they are trying to do the same in Doklam and with their
border in Bhutan. Earlier they tried the same with Russia. Clearly, the greatest success of this strategy of
creeping annexation has been in SCS, where they have been gradually changing the status quo. China has also
been unholy and provocative in using the Covid-19 to pursue its strategic goals, while the world was busy
saving lives from the widespread pandemic.
China’s outposts in the disputed South China Sea are often cited as examples of a “salami-slicing” tactic.
Image Wikipedia
How China used the USA for Decades
Mao was no stranger to strategic necessities that would override ideological imperatives[19]. While the
USA was trying to wean away from Communist China in its strategy to the counter-balance Soviet Union in the
1970s, it is China that benefited the most in the long run. Many top technology US companies set up bases in
China, thus giving greater access to modern trade practices and technology. Also Chinese could import modern
systems from the USA. Many Chinese migrated to the USA and thus became a powerful diaspora who would
not only send remittances and industrial intelligence but also acted as a pressure group. While the USA was
spending trillions around the world as a global policeman to counter-terrorism, China was gaining time and
becoming a major power.
Vulnerability of SCS Islands
Most of the islands in the SCS are on very small parcels of land. They have very limited air defences.
These can easily be targeted using cruise missiles launched from ships or aircraft. Only a few have runways on
them. These could be targeted first. Most islands also have very limited capability to launch amphibious
operations. So effectively they do not give China much military reach but are being used only to reinforce
territorial claims.
US Politics Need for Greater Bipartisanship
Recent elections in the USA have exposed the country as being highly divided. Even though the decision
to pull out of Afghanistan has been supported across party lines, the Biden administration is under severe attack.
Internal politics apart, it gives a poor impression to the world and also weakens the global leadership position of
the United States. The country must maintain and display total unity in actions to contain China.
U.S. Strategy and Options
While the QUAD began evolving during President Obama’s tenure, it is President Trump who accelerated
actions to evolve and action an aggressive competing strategy and confrontational approach toward China. The
Biden Administration continues to maintain that approach. The U.S. has security treaty commitments with many
in the Western Pacific, including Japan, Taiwan, and the Philippines. It has to maintain the U.S.-led security
architecture in the Western Pacific, and favourable regional balance of power. Stopping autocratic communist
China from following “might-makes-right” and becoming the world leader, displacing the democratic USA. The
USA has to stop and prevent further salami-slicing.