Prognostics and Health

Celalettin Y€
uce
Department of Mechatronics Engineering,
Bursa Technical University,
Bursa 16310, Turkey
e-mail: celalettin.yuce@btu.edu.tr
Ozhan Gecgel
Mem. ASME
Department of Chemical Engineering,
Texas Tech University,
807 Canton Avenue,
Downloaded from http://asmedigitalcollection.asme.org/risk/article-pdf/8/2/020801/6847677/risk_008_02_020801.pdf by Indian Institute Of Tech- Guwahati user on 01 August 2022
Lubbock, TX 79409
e-mail: ozhan.gecgel@ttu.edu
O
guz Do
gan
Department of Mechanical Engineering,
Kahramanmaras Sutcu Imam University,
Kahramanmaras 46050, Turkey
e-mail: oguzdogan@ksu.edu.tr
Shweta Dabetwar
Mem. ASME
Prognostics and Health
University of Massachusetts,
1 University Avenue,
Management of Wind Energy
Lowell, MA 01851
e-mail: Shweta_dabetwar@uml.edu
Infrastructure Systems
Yasar Yanik The improvements in wind energy infrastructure have been a constant process throughout
Mem. ASME many decades. There are new advancements in technology that can further contribute
Department of Mechanical Engineering, toward the prognostics and health management (PHM) in this industry. These advance-
Texas Tech University, ments are driven by the need to fully explore the impact of uncertainty, quality and quan-
805 Boston Avenue, tity of data, physics-based machine learning (PBML), and digital twin (DT). All these
Lubbock, TX 79409 aspects need to be taken into consideration to perform an effective PHM of wind energy
e-mail: yasar.yanik@ttu.edu infrastructure. To address these aspects, four research questions were formulated. What
is the role of uncertainty in machine learning (ML) in diagnostics and prognostics? What
Onur Can Kalay is the role of data augmentation and quality of data for ML? What is the role of PBML?
Department of Mechanical Engineering, What is the role of the DT in diagnostics and prognostics? The methodology used was
Bursa Uludag University, Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis. A total of 143
Bursa 16059, Turkey records, from the last five years, were analyzed. Each of the four questions was answered
e-mail: onurcankalay@uludag.edu.tr by discussion of literature, definitions, critical aspects, benefits and challenges, the role
of aspect in PHM of wind energy infrastructure systems, and conclusion.
[DOI: 10.1115/1.4053422]
Esin Karpat
Department of Electrical and
Electronics Engineering,
Bursa Uludag University,
Bursa 16059, Turkey
e-mail: esinoz@uludag.edu.tr
Fatih Karpat
Mem. ASME
Bursa Uludag University,
Bursa 16059, Turkey
e-mail: karpat@uludag.edu.tr
Stephen Ekwaro-Osire1
Fellow ASME
Texas Tech University,
805 Boston Avenue,
Lubbock, TX 79409
e-mail: stephen.ekwaro-osire@ttu.edu
1
Corresponding author.
Manuscript received March 15, 2021; final manuscript received December 17,
2021; published online February 16, 2022. Assoc. Editor: Imad Abdallah.
ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, JUNE 2022, Vol. 8 / 020801-1
Part B: Mechanical Engineering C 2022 by ASME
Copyright V
1 Introduction consuming. The frequently used data augmentation techniques
and their effects have been discussed in the following sections.
1.1 Background
1.1.1 Uncertainty in Machine Learning. Prognostics and 1.1.3 Physics-Based Machine Learning. Understanding how
health management (PHM) is a framework that provides compre- an engineering system works and knowing how it will react in dif-
hensive solutions for system health. In complex systems, such as a ferent situations is one of the most important facts in solving engi-
wind turbine (WT), the existing uncertainties are often unknown neering problems. Some engineering systems can clearly explain
[1]. PHM facilitates the minimization of unexpected faults/fail- associated cause-and-effect relationships between inputs and out-
ures of critical components, hence the operation and maintenance puts. However, many engineering systems are much more com-
costs [2]. The uncertainty-related information can provide a sig- plex. In complex systems, there is an uncertain, complex
nificant amount of trust and confidence in PHM activities. There- correlation between changes in input variables and outputs. It is
fore, uncertainty has become a critical parameter in fault very difficult to model these complex systems and predict their
outputs [13]. Different methods can be used to estimate the
diagnosis, artificial intelligence (AI), and decision-making.
Ever-increasing data collection and computing capabilities ena- response of complex systems. These methods can be classified
ble machine learning (ML) algorithms to assist decision-makers in into three groups, namely, experimental [14], computational [15],
diverse industrial applications. In this regard, the wide availability and ML [16]. There are significant disadvantages of each method.
of sensors is substantial to collect a sufficient amount of field or Experimental methods are valid only within the limits of the
experimental data for diagnostics and prognostics [1,3]. Addition- tested parameters. Therefore, all input variables must be changed
ally, mathematical models built using data or physics or a hybrid for all limit values of the system to fully understand the whole
combination of both could provide simulation data in the absence system. Consequently, understanding a complex system experi-
of sensors [4,5]. Prognostics deal with estimating possible future mentally is very challenging and expensive. The simplifications
failures in different systems based on the available data. At this and approximations offered by computational methods according
point, a systematic framework is necessary to quantify the differ- to the physical system cause errors and hence accurate results may
ent types of uncertainties in ML, such as measurement errors, not be obtained for complex systems. ML methods directly rely
modeling errors, and unknown future working conditions [6]. on input data; thus, the inaccuracies of input data translate into the
Manual selection of ML parameters and definition of classes or results. Moreover, the ML is good for interpolating results but not
limiting values introduces errors and adds further uncertainties to as successful for the extrapolation of the results [13].
the ML algorithms’ prediction results [4]. Uncertainty in ML is Physics-based machine learning (PBML) can be defined as the
utilized for diagnostics and prognostics in applications such as inclusion of physics into ML methods. Generally, this is achieved
condition monitoring/damage assessment of critical rotating by implementing physical information in the loss functions of the
machines, the remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, and WT ML method used [17]. In some applications, physical information
power curve estimation [1,3,6]. The quantification of uncertainty can be used simply as inputs and outputs to incorporate that infor-
mitigates erroneous diagnoses and thus benefits in developing bet- mation into ML methods and improve prediction with less amount
ter maintenance strategies by recognizing anomalies early [4,6,7]. of data decreasing the chance of possible overfitting [16].
Here, the data augmentation for ML is another crucial tool in Although this approach can be very challenging for certain appli-
PHM activities to reduce model errors and associated cations such as where a physical model of the system is very com-
uncertainties. plex when simple physics information is added to the ML method
it can save on computational time and improve the results drasti-
1.1.2 Data Augmentation for Machine Learning. In recent cally. PBML algorithm can be used to improve the predictive abil-
years, data-driven fault diagnostics methods are gaining a lot of ity of the model by combining the methods mentioned above. The
attention. ML techniques include traditional methods such as k- feature space of the ML algorithms can be changed with the
nearest neighbors, support vector machine (SVM), decision tree, physics-based input variables to get better outputs. The PBML
and random forest. Additionally, deep learning (DL) methods can be applied in a wide range of scientific areas where there is a
such as a convolutional neural network (CNN), long short-term need for prediction such as fault diagnosis of rolling element bear-
memory (LSTM), and other variations of neural networks are also ings [16,18].
sometimes categorized under ML approaches. These methods are
widely used in PHM as well as in healthcare industries. Recently 1.1.4 Digital Twin. In the last several years, digital twin (DT)
many advances have been made in the wind industries as well for has been used in a growing number of industries. DTs can merge
fault diagnostics using ML approaches. The main drawback of tra- physical and virtual information through a lifecycle of a product,
ditional ML methods in fault detection is the requirement of man- resulting in a massive amount of data that AI can process. More-
ual feature extraction techniques [8,9]. The manual techniques over, DTs can improve the reliability, efficiency, and predictabil-
can introduce errors and uncertainties. Hence, deep neural net- ity of a manufacturing process while decreasing time and cost
work (DNN) techniques are being widely used nowadays to avoid [19,20].
manual feature extraction [10]. CNN and LSTM are the most used In wind energy infrastructure, next-generation WTs have been
methods for diagnostics [11]. These DNN techniques require a designed with the DT concept. The new technology behind WTs
huge amount of data. The accuracy of diagnostics depends on this is created by combining physical WTs and their DTs into a cyber-
training data hence, maintaining the quantity and the quality of physical framework. For instance, the structure and methodology
the data is highly critical. Generally, the requirement of huge data of the DT-guided PHM which is utilized for a case study of gear-
does not get satisfied with experiments as they are very costly and box prognosis is performed to validate the suggested DT method
time extensive, even the datasets that are publicly available cannot for enhancing prognosis accuracy by Tao et al. [21] and Branlard
suffice the need of the data. Thus, there are methods to artificially et al. [22]. The fast growth of many technologies, including high-
improve the dataset quantitatively known as data augmentation accuracy numerical models, computing capacity, ML, technologi-
techniques [12]. Although data augmentation methods are fre- cally advanced sensors, and knowledge sharing technology such
quently used in image processing and speech recognition, it is as big data and the internet of things, has aided the integration of
quite new to use in fault diagnosis of machines using vibration physical, virtual, data, connector, and service entities in DT [23].
signals. Data augmentation in terms of WTs is new and very rudi- Prognostics and health management in WTs is also controlled
mentary as of now and hence most of the research regarding diag- and guided by DT. PHM is important for monitoring RUL, partic-
nostics depends on the data collected from wind farm industries ularly for technologically advanced devices in extreme conditions
and the prototype developed only for data collection purposes. [20]. DT is an evolving technology to accomplish physical–virtual
Both the data collection methods are very expensive and time- integration as well as to increase the reliability and performance
020801-2 / Vol. 8, JUNE 2022 Transactions of the ASME

of PHM. Thus, some characteristics of DTs which can represent different diagnostics and prognostics tasks such as early damage
the virtual model of physical product and simulate the status and detection, RUL prediction, and estimation of WT power curves.
behavior of models utilizing data and analytical models, improve The benefits of uncertainty quantification in PHM as well as the
the advantages of PHM by increasing reliability of the product challenges encountered are stated. The role of uncertainty in ML
and providing real-time monitoring with the help of ML methods in diagnostics and prognostics is then discussed. Section 3.2 is on
[19,24,25]. data augmentation for ML. The section begins with a discussion
of ML algorithms and datasets and then presents its impact on
results and data quality. Finally, it explains the benefits and chal-
1.2 Motivation and Research Questions. Prognostics and lenges of data augmentation for ML along with the comments
health management implementation in complex systems is essen- regarding the role of data augmentation for ML and hence for
tial to improve component safety, reliability, and maintainability. PHM. Section 3.3 opens up by presenting the definition of PBML
The primary duties of PHM including, failure diagnostics, prog- followed by a detailed discussion of PHM as an application of
nostics, and health management, which activities are invariably PBML. The benefits and challenges are then presented. This is fol-
clouded with uncertainty [26]. Without uncertainty quantification, lowed by a discussion of the role of PBML. In Sec. 3.4, first, the
the confidence level of ML algorithms’ prediction results may be definitions of DT are provided. This is followed by a discussion of
even error-prone and could lead to misdiagnoses [7]. In this PHM in DT. Bayesian updating is discussed. Then, a narration on
regard, the role of uncertainty in ML needs to be well-addressed multifidelity uncertainty quantification is presented. Then, the
and discussed to benefit from the massive data collected from the benefits and challenges of DT are narrated. Finally, the role of DT
critical WT components. Hence, there is a need to explore these in diagnostics and prognostics is discussed. Finally, the conclu-
areas for applications in wind energy infrastructure. sions of the paper are provided in Sec. 4 where each research
Studies conducted in recent years have shown that when suffi- question is answered.
cient supervised data is collected, machinery fault diagnosis
problems have been well-addressed. However, since collecting
high-quality data from these real systems is often laborious and 2 Methodology
costly, it is still difficult to develop an effective fault diagnostics The systematic literature review method that was used in this
method with insufficient training data in real industrial scenarios study is outlined in the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic
[27]. The most effective way to overcome the problems caused by Review and Meta-Analysis statement [33]. The Web of Science
insufficient training data is the augmentation of the available data. electronic database was one of the ways used to extract the
Additionally, insufficient data also causes problems of overfitting records (n ¼ 558), from the last five years, used in the paper.
while using DNNs thus, having sufficient high-quality data is a Additional records (n ¼ 62), dissertations, and expert-
crucial requirement [28]. Additionally, the question of “how much recommended records, from the last five years, were also col-
data is sufficient?” is equally crucial which can be tested using lected. Using a documented process to guarantee transparency
sensitivity analysis [29]. These issues of data quality and quantity [34] n ¼ 620 records were identified. The keywords used for the
significantly affect the results of any analysis using ML. Hence, literature search are tabulated in Table 5 in Appendix A. Each of
there is a need to address these issues for any analysis, especially the four aspects of PHM was addressed using a separate set of
including WT infrastructure considering the costs and vitality keywords with a minimal overlap due to their independent nature.
associated with it. Inclusion and exclusion criteria for the study were formulated (see
Generally, it is not possible to accurately predict complex engi- Table 6 in Appendix B). The inclusion and exclusion criteria were
neering systems responses with only experimental and numerical applied to the identified records following the four phases,
models [13]. If the ML algorithms are trained with the physics- namely, identification, screening, eligibility, and inclusion. The
based experimental and computational data, the understanding results of the phases of the systematic literature review are shown
and predictability of the complex engineering problems can be in Fig. 2 in Appendix B. The records n ¼ 136 were used for the
easier [16]. Hence, the inclusion of prior knowledge (physics) into quantitative and qualitative synthesis. The full list of the n ¼ 136
the ML process could improve the model accuracy and reliability records included (1) n ¼ 38 records on uncertainty in ML (see
as well as reduce the errors and associated uncertainties [30]. Table 7 in Appendix C), (2) n ¼ 32 records on data augmentation
From this point of view, the role of PBML in diagnostics and for ML (see Table 8 in Appendix C), (3) n ¼ 22 records on PBML
prognostics needs to be well-discussed to enhance the efficiency (see Table 9 in Appendix C), and (4) n ¼ 48 records on DT (see
of PHM for a DT model in wind energy infrastructure. Table 10 in Appendix C). The classification of record (n ¼ 136)
Digital twins have many benefits and have wide applications in per application domain is shown in Table 11 in Appendix C. For
the area of manufacturing, aviation, healthcare, and smart cities DT, the classification record (n ¼ 6) on the wind energy infrastruc-
[31,32]. For PHM of wind energy infrastructure systems, there is ture and rotating machinery (see Table 11 in Appendix C) is a few
interest to explore the real-time function and offline functions of comparing to other areas such as manufacturing, aviation, and
DT. There is also a need to exploit the DT environment as regards healthcare. This information demonstrates the opportunity of
the fusion of homogenous and heterogenous data, Bayesian updat- advancements in DT for wind energy infrastructure area.
ing, and multifidelity uncertainty quantification.
The above motivations lead to four research questions on PHM
of wind energy infrastructure, namely, 3 Discussions
(1) What is the role of uncertainty in ML in diagnostics and 3.1 Uncertainty in Machine Learning
prognostics?
3.1.1 Uncertainty in Diagnostics and Prognostics. Prognos-
(2) What is the role of data augmentation and quality of data
tics and health management is essential in preventing catastrophic
for ML?
failures due to malfunctions and reducing operation and mainte-
(3) What is the role of PBML?
nance costs [1]. As a result of monitoring the available data with
(4) What is the role of the DT in diagnostics and prognostics?
an appropriate method, future maintenance activities can be
The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section 2 dis- scheduled by providing early warnings for outliers. In this regard,
cusses the methodology used to extract answers to the four ques- ML-based methods have become a part of the PHM process to
tions. It is followed by Sec. 3 that presents discussions and achieve this significant task, owing to the notable increase in data
findings. Section 3.1 discusses the role of uncertainty in ML in collection and powerful computing capabilities.
diagnostics and prognostics. The primary sources of uncertainty Noisy sensor data, the ML algorithm used, and the randomness
are identified by stating how uncertainties have been utilized in of future working conditions can be listed as some of the primary
Part B: Mechanical Engineering
sources of uncertainty [26]. For instance, signals collected from a modes, variable working conditions, and noisy environments.
mechanical system, such as a WT drive-train, are continually Measurement and model uncertainties arise when the data is col-
exposed to irrelevant information stemming from the system’s lected through the sensors and processed with an ML-based
nature and unrelated data to damage [4]. One of the reasons for method. Consequently, if the uncertainty quantification is
this irrelevant information can be the vibration data originating included in the RUL prediction, findings closer to reality are
from many different sources, including friction during gear mesh- obtained. As aforementioned, measurement and model uncertain-
ing, magnetic fields, and imbalances of rotating elements. There- ties are substantial in RUL prediction. As an example, consider
fore, noisy sensor data containing unrelated features may cause an the RUL prediction task in Ref. [6]. In the study, RUL prediction
increase in the amount of error or a decrease in feature learning was performed using a recurrent convolutional neural network
accuracy in diagnostics and prognostics. In this respect, the data- framework through the run-to-failure experimental data, empha-
set needed to be free of irrelevant features. Besides, the main com- sizing measurement and model uncertainties. It is assumed that if
ponents of the signal that enclose damage information should be the dropout probability value suitable for the recurrent convolu-
selected to minimize the measurement uncertainty [35]. To this tional neural network framework is utilized, the uncertainty aris-
end, uncertainties can be evaluated to provide a noise-free indica- ing from the modeling error decreases, and this may be
tion of WT components. The ML methods such as Gaussian pro- serviceable in capturing the measurement uncertainty. To sum up,
cess (GP) and bootstrap-based ensemble neural networks (BENN) the higher dropout probability results in a broader uncertainty
can filter the sensor noises that make it difficult to detect fault interval, hence an increase in model uncertainty. Conversely, a
early. At this point, the GP method was found to be superior small dropout probability makes the measurement uncertainty
against the BENN for WT condition monitoring in terms of accu- hard to capture. Eventually, uncertainty quantification has been
racy and earlier fault diagnosis in Ref. [2]. instrumental in decision-making regarding maintenance.
Modeling errors are one of the most frequently pointed out It is still challenging to quantify the uncertainty in applications
uncertainties. In many cases, the ML-based methods themselves such as wind power forecasting. Accurate power forecasting from
are a source of uncertainty considering such reasons as depend- WTs may reduce operation and maintenance costs by early detec-
ence on human experience in parameter selection and sensitivity tion of performance changes. Most new wind farms collect infor-
to variable working conditions. For instance, unsupervised learn- mation on the power output using supervisory control and data
ing models such as the auto-encoder and denoising auto-encoder acquisition (SCADA) systems. However, due to the statistical
models are generally used for WT health monitoring. However, nature of data-mining approaches and the stochastic variation of
the shortcoming of these models is a threshold setting. It is a environmental conditions, uncertainties inevitably exist in the
source of uncertainty that the threshold value is based on various SCADA data [2]. In recent studies, SCADA datasets have been
calculation methods or experience. Besides, determining the used to train and validate the models based on different probabil-
threshold value for diverse WT health conditions is another source istic ML algorithms, i.e., artificial neural network (ANN), support
of uncertainty. In this regard, existing uncertainty can reduce the vector regression, SVM, GP, and BENN, and associated uncer-
accuracy of monitoring and lead to misdiagnoses. Chen et al. uti- tainty [7,37,38]. The uncertainty of both the SCADA dataset and
lized a deep convolutional generative adversarial networks the ML model used can affect the prediction accuracy and may
(DCGAN) based framework that defines the threshold value itself lead to misdiagnoses. In this respect, new methods proposed in
to overcome this problem [1]. A sample discrepancy was per- these studies considering the uncertainty quantification could help
formed by employing the G network output in DCGAN. The wind farm developers and operators develop cost-effective strat-
DCGAN-based model directed the threshold value away from egies to minimize operation and maintenance costs, improve per-
subjectivity and led the data itself. formance, and maintain wind power availability.
For highly accurate, reliable predictions, the model uncertainty Wind turbine power curves are another critical topic where
needs to be well-addressed and quantified. Here, the models sub- uncertainty in ML plays a crucial role. It is a source of uncertainty
ject to uncertainty are divided into three groups: (i) model-based that power curve measurements are mostly taken at the hub height
methods, (ii) data-driven methods, and (iii) hybrid approaches. [7,39]. Besides, the stochastic nature of the wind can cause devia-
Model-based methods are generally limited to monitoring a cer- tions in power curves. This situation points out the significance of
tain part of rotating machinery, i.e., they cannot be generalized. In quantifying the uncertainty associated with the power curves. As
contrast, data-driven methods such as ML have the necessary gen- an example, consider the power curve uncertainty estimation task
eralization ability to succeed in condition monitoring and fault in Ref. [7]. Here, the uncertainty associated with the SVM-based
diagnosis. This difference contributes to making data-driven method was quantified using both pointwise and simultaneous
methods more attractive in the field of diagnostics and prognos- confidence intervals. The radial basis function was utilized for
tics. Furthermore, data-driven methods do not need to know the improving the SVM-based models’ accuracy. Consequently, both
explicit failure mechanisms of the systems [6]. However, varying confidence interval methods were found to be beneficial in power
loads and rotating speeds can cause uncertainty in data-driven curve uncertainty estimation. However, the pointwise confidence
models, resulting in information confusion and reduced prediction interval method produced relatively smaller intervals and was
accuracy. In this regard, the current data-driven and classical ML- helpful to advance WT decision-making regarding maintenance.
based methods generally have difficulty reflecting prediction Wind farm owners aim to increase profits by optimizing the main-
uncertainty [36]. The randomness of future working conditions tenance process. In this regard, energy production losses can be
may create a prediction uncertainty; thereby, the accuracy can be prevented by early fault diagnosis in critical WT components.
significantly affected. Here, quantifying the existing uncertainties Today, the average wind speed and air density parameters are gen-
with a given confidence interval can provide a guideline value in erally used to compute WT power curves. However, it still needs
engineering implementations. to be addressed whether other variables can improve the model
Uncertainty is high in RUL prediction, and its quantification accuracies. To this end, if the operational variables such as blade
plays an influential role, for example, in energy systems and pitch angle and rotor speed are included in the power curve
machinery [1]. The expression of uncertainty in the RUL predic- model, the uncertainty can be reduced by increasing the model
tion is achieved by calculating the RUL prediction value and the accuracy. This addition also improves the model’s capabilities to
confidence interval of RUL. However, classical ML-based meth- detect early fault signs as detailed in Ref. [39].
ods such as CNN architectures can make point estimation instead
of a probabilistic distribution for RUL prediction [6]. The point 3.1.2 Datasets. The datasets used as input to ML models in
estimation has limited practical value when sensor data contains diagnostics and prognostics tasks must be well-addressed, consid-
irrelevant features and model parameters become complex. Addi- ering they can cause different uncertainties. It is possible to obtain
tionally, real engineering applications often involve multifault ML predictions closer to reality by quantifying the uncertainty

Table 1 Benefits, challenges, and solutions—uncertainty
Benefits Challenges Solutions
Provides a guidance [41] Difficulties in reflect- [36] Bootstrap method [26,41]

value for engineering ing predictive (confidence interval)
uncertainty
Increased reliability, [5,6] Inability to always (or [6,26] Refining the long- [7,39]
accuracy, and ever) predict future term predictions by
robustness events precisely incorporating opera-
tional variables
Approximation of [44,45] Lack of knowledge [35,43] Fusion of heterogene- [36,43]
reality (reducing due to data and model ous information
misdiagnoses) inadequacies
Better maintenance [7,39] Massiveness, nonli- [1,44] Combining the statis- [44]
strategies nearity, and high- tical data-driven
dimensionality of data methods with the ML-
based methods
Ability to interpret [26] Decision-making [6,36] Bayesian updating [43,44]
prognostic results based on single-point (adapting)
RUL is difficult or
even error-prone
arising from measurement errors, ML algorithm itself, and data- applications where experimental and simulation data are used
sets. For instance, consider the WT condition monitoring task in together due to material parameters, excitation types, boundary
Ref. [40]. The study performed daily monitoring of a WT using conditions, damage location, and dataset complexity. As an exam-
the SCADA field data. Besides, high-fidelity WT power curves ple, consider the damage-sensitive feature extraction task in
were utilized to achieve this significant task. The optimized least Ref. [35]. The experimental setup signals were used to update the
square SVM was used for deterministic power curve modeling. finite element (FE) model in the study. This approach was utilized
However, it is a source of uncertainty that power curves are con- to reduce the natural frequency differences between the FE model
siderably affected by potential deviations in the SCADA system. and the real system. Besides, a DNN-based method was adopted
Besides, the data-driven model causes uncertainty due to regres- to learn damage-sensitive features from the frequency data.
sion error. In this regard, the conditional kernel density estimation Uncertainties in the system caused differences in the peak values
approach was utilized for uncertainty modeling. Consequently, of natural frequencies obtained from the FE model and experi-
the conditional kernel density estimation was found effective in mental setup. Consequently, the DNN-based method outper-
uncertainty modeling for regression error. formed the classical backpropagation neural networks in terms of
It has been noted that experimental datasets are generally used accuracy. In another example, Karve et al. presented an intelligent
in early damage detection and RUL prediction applications mission planning framework addressing different sources of
[36,41]. Therefore, quantifying the current uncertainty within a uncertainty to optimize maintenance and repair activities. The
specific confidence interval can provide valuable early fault diag- study performed both numerical and laboratory experiments in the
nosis information. To this end, run-to-failure experimental data- presence of fatigue crack growth. The proposed methodology
sets can be utilized in the presence of measurement and model incorporated the effects of the following uncertainties: natural var-
uncertainties for RUL prediction [6,41]. For example, it is difficult iability in model inputs (material properties and loads), data
for sensor data to directly reflect the degradation state due to mea- uncertainty (measurement error), and epistemic uncertainty due to
surement uncertainty in rotating machine elements such as bear- discretization and surrogate model errors [43].
ings. She and Jia adapted the bidirectional gated recurrent unit So far, how uncertainty in ML can be utilized in applications
model based on the bootstrap method to obtain the RUL predic- such as early damage detection, RUL, and WT power curve pre-
tion results’ uncertainty expression. It was observed that this diction was discussed. Besides, the datasets used and the associ-
approach both improves the RUL prediction accuracy and is effec- ated uncertainties that occurred were detailed. In this regard, it is
tive in obtaining the RUL confidence interval [41]. necessary to evaluate the benefits and challenges of uncertainty in
Alves et al. presented a DL-based approach to identify bearing ML to present a comprehensive framework.
ovalization error, which can be caused by, for instance, manufac-
turing uncertainty and assembly problems. In this regard, a numer- 3.1.3 Benefits and Challenges. Most studies either define the
ical model was developed to simulate the vibration responses of uncertainty or refer to different uncertainty types, but few have
bearings for different operation conditions and ovalization severi- methodologies to quantify the uncertainty [7,39]. Here, it is valua-
ties. The study used both original and augmented datasets as ble to address the benefits and challenges of quantifying uncer-
inputs to the proposed DL-based approach and quantified the asso- tainty in ML in diagnostics and prognostics to emphasize the
ciated uncertainty. Consequently, it was observed that the pro- significance of uncertainty quantification in diverse engineering
posed method is a powerful tool for classifying different bearing implementations (see Table 1). On the other hand, the challenges
faults [5]. encountered regarding uncertainty in ML should motivate future
Datasets given as input for ML algorithms to achieve the spe- works to develop more efficient prognostic and diagnostic meth-
cific task can be field, experimental, or simulation data. So far, the ods, especially for the wind energy infrastructure systems.
diverse implementations regarding all three dataset types and
associated uncertainties that arise were addressed individually. 3.1.4 The Role of Uncertainty in Machine Learning in Diag-
However, the role of uncertainty in the joint use of experimental/ nostics and Prognostics. Extreme and random future environmen-
simulation data also needs to be discussed [4,35,42]. As aforemen- tal conditions make WT components prone to different failure
tioned, uncertainties such as modeling errors, measurement errors, modes [6]. At this point, performance degradation due to harsh
and varying loading conditions are frequently encountered in environments is inevitable [46]. In this regard, ML algorithms
mechanical systems. There are additional uncertainties in have started to be utilized effectively in diagnostics and
prognostics for industrial systems, altogether with the wide avail- as shown by Fu and Wang [27] and Nath et al. [50]. The third
ability of sensors and increase in data processing capabilities [26]. type of dataset that was used was taken by performing lab-scale
Additionally, PHM activities were boosted to provide early alerts experiments and using data augmentation techniques such as
against catastrophic accidents and reduce operation and mainte- resampling the data to increase the number of samples, matrix
nance costs [6]. PHM has become a promising tool in wind energy modification, adding noise, and the traditional techniques men-
applications by leveraging ML and condition monitoring data tioned above to finally increase the datasets.
[1,26]. One neglected issue is that, for instance, exposure to irrele-
vant noises during sensor measurement [4,35], the dependence of 3.2.2 Impact on Results and Data Quality. The classification
parameter selection in ML on human knowledge [1,36], environ- and diagnostics techniques used have shown a significant
mental factors (i.e., unknown future loadings) [7], and dataset improvement due to the use of data augmentation in the results for
types (field, experimental, or simulation) [4,35,42] is a source of all the literature under consideration. The purpose of data aug-
uncertainty. From this point of view, uncertainty in ML is one of mentation is mainly to reduce the overfitting in the training step of
the key factors that needed to be considered with all aspects for the ML algorithms. In most cases, the overfitting issue has been
diagnostics and prognostics and subsequent decisions in safety- seen to be resolved using data augmentation [50]. Additionally,
related applications. due to increased diversity, the robustness of the classifier also has
Prognostics uncertainties such as measurement, model, and pre- been observed to be enhanced with the reduction in the error of
diction uncertainties could increase the amount of error in ML classification [51].
algorithms’ results, thus leading to misdiagnoses [6,35,44]. With- While using data augmentation techniques, considering the
out uncertainty quantification, it becomes difficult to interpret the quality of the data is equally crucial for the result of a reliable
confidence level of ML algorithms’ prognostics results. Therefore, diagnostic. Unfortunately, most of the papers that have performed
the results obtained may be even error-prone [26] and could lead data augmentation have not discussed the issue of the quality of
to dangerous outcomes, notably in safety-related applications, for the data. While generating artificial data, a sensitivity analysis is
instance, WTs [4]. To this end, the uncertainty quantification in significant to assure the amount of data is sufficient. This kind of
ML within a specific confidence interval can provide a guideline analysis was also not very commonly observed throughout the lit-
value for engineering and actual manufacturing [41]. erature. However, some of the papers have shown promising anal-
In summary, how to address uncertainty in ML in diagnostics ysis while assuring the quality of the augmented dataset by
and prognostics is crucial in getting more accurate and reliable defining parameters that conform to the quality of the data such as
results and approximating the reality [45]. Adapting the uncer- defining loss function in the case of GAN [52] and using
tainty quantification to real-life implementations effectively and Kullback–Leibler divergence [53]. On the other hand, some of the
practically would be highly significant to improve the robustness authors have utilized domain-specific weight factors to improve
of ML algorithms in diagnostics and prognostics tasks. the quality of the datasets [50]. The most common method to
ensure the quality of the dataset considering the physics of the
dataset was using GAN and defining a loss function as the objec-
3.2 Data Augmentation for Machine Learning. Data- tive function that minimizes the difference between the original
driven ML is very common and has a wide range of applications. and artificial image. This method is very useful while working
The central difficulty of using data-driven ML is the requirement with image datasets but all the other datasets using weight func-
of data and the sparse availability of sufficient data [29]. Thus, tions and sliding windows have been proven to be very qualita-
data augmentation in ML is a very common practice. tively effective.
3.2.1 Machine learning Algorithms and Dataset. Machine 3.2.3 Benefits and Challenges. Data augmentation methods
learning algorithms that have been used mostly in current litera- have shown advantages in many areas, especially in the health,
ture are CNN and multilayer neural networks. Ma et al. [47] and machinery, and energy sectors, where collecting high-quality data
Qin et al. [48] proposed methods based on CNN for the classifica- is costly and difficult [52]. These methods have been proved to be
tion of fault diagnostics. Additionally, Qin et al. utilized CNN the only tool as data collection in real-time is most difficult in
based on transfer learning. These methods were for diagnostics of rotating machinery applications [49,53–55]. In addition to fault
skin cancer cells based on images of skin lesions. Similarly, multi- diagnosis in rotating machinery, data augmentation techniques are
ple attempts have been made to use CNN for rotor fault diagnos- also conducted successfully in image processing [48,56–59]. Sev-
tics, rolling bearing fault diagnostics, damage detection in railway eral benefits and challenges of data augmentation have been noted
slabs, and rotating machinery. All these methods require a huge (see Table 2) [50,60,61]. The advantages of data augmentation
amount of data in the form of vibration signals, acoustics signals, techniques so far have surpassed the disadvantages and hence pro-
and images of faults. As mentioned above, the collection of data ven to be a very effective tool for advanced ML techniques
is highly time-consuming and expensive. Most of the time the [62–69].
data is insufficient and thus cannot be used for CNN. Hence, these Another important factor was the quality of artificially gener-
authors have utilized data augmentation techniques to artificially ated datasets which was not discussed in most of the papers that
increase the datasets. Most of them have used traditional techni- have implemented data augmentation. There are crucial factors
ques such as rotation, flipping, and adding noise [49] whereas that need to be considered while working with artificial data.
some of them have used advanced techniques such as generative Renganathan et al. [70] pointed the importance of the data for DT.
adversarial network (GAN) [27,48]. GAN uses a generator and a The author also adds that if the data is sparse, has a lot of uncer-
discriminator to generate images that are as close to the original tainties, or if there are biases in the data, the proper methodology
images by adding noise to the original images. The discriminator needs to be adopted in order to increase the quality of the data. In
classifies the images to be real or fake. At the end of the training this paper, the use of data fusion using the Bayesian approach has
cycle, we get a generator that can generate images that can be been highlighted for the same purpose.
classified as original by the discriminator hence; the quality of the
dataset is maintained. 3.2.4 The Role of Data Augmentation and Quality of Data in
The datasets that have been used for the training of these tech- Machine Learning. Multiple techniques exist to enhance the data
niques were taken from publicly available sources. The most used artificially by incorporating tools of data fusion or data augmenta-
dataset from the literature review was the “Case Western Reserve tion, but the literature based on the techniques to assess the sensi-
University open dataset.” These kinds of extensive experimental tivity of the data on the final results remains underexplored.
datasets are rarely available as the experiments are highly expen- Dabetwar et al. [29] provided a study based on such sensitivity
sive. The other kind of dataset that was highly used was simulated analysis wherein the importance of the amount of data on the type
datasets and the results were validated using experimental datasets of problem and the results were emphasized. Researchers should

Table 2 Benefits, challenges, and solutions—data augmentation
Increasing the robustness of DL [49] Costly in terms of computation and time Improve the quality of the data [50,51]
Improving model prediction accuracy [25,45] Datasets for diagnostics must be of good quality Reduce the overfitting in the training step [48]
Reducing costs of collecting and labeling Requirement of the assessment of the quality Provide sufficient data for difficult
data [44,45] of their output tasks [47,51–53]
Completely or semisupervised learning tasks
with a small labeled-data [27]
The increasing generalization ability of the models [50]
focus their attention to address the problem of sensitivity while inform kernels. With this hybrid approach, the study was able to
applying data augmentation or data fusion techniques to their predict the bearing fatigue faults a few months in advance.
analyses. Based on the current literature and authors’ understand- Another study from Yucesan et al. [73] developed a PBNN
ing the experimental data can be insufficient and very noisy due to model to predict frequency response function. Torsional vibration
the uncertainties hence can result in erroneous conclusions. dampers were used to control vibrations. This study implemented
Hence, for ML or any application of ML such as DT, the quality DNN using a direct graph to decrease the error in prediction suc-
and the amount of data is of extreme significance. In the conclu- cessfully. The model elements like storage and loss moduli, stiff-
sion, the researchers should also focus their attention to assess the ness, and damping coefficients are implemented in nodes of the
sensitivity of the data on the results of the analyses. graph. This methodology facilitates a reduction in time to predict
Data augmentation techniques have shown that they can gener- uncertainty while making the computational cost reasonable.
ate realistic datasets which reduces the errors and uncertainties Viana et al. [72] proposed a PBNN model for the solution of
associated with datasets and hence with the diagnostics [51]. the ordinary differential equations. The performance of the pro-
Hence it is important to consider them while performing data aug- posed method is tested with the three different problems, which
mentation. Another important method of improving the data is by are fatigue crack growth, corrosion, and bearing fatigue of the
introducing the physics of the system in the data generation phase WTs. Recurrent neural networks were used to perform numerical
which is a rather important but highly complicated process. This integrations of the ordinary differential equations and they were
aspect of PHM, i.e., PBML is addressed in the next section. used as a directed graph. According to the authors, this enabled
the estimation of the missing physics. The results show that the
proposed novel physics-based method decreased the prediction
3.3 Physics-Based Machine Learning
error between the model and the observations, resulting in
3.3.1 Definitions. Physics-based machine learning has been decreasing the computational cost significantly.
receiving more and more attention in recent years. Although there Chao et al. [74] fused a physics-based approach with a DL
is no consensus on naming yet, it has been called physics- model to predict the performance degradation of nine turbofan
informed neural networks, physics-informed ML, physics-guided engines under real flight conditions. In the study, the hybrid model
neural networks, physics-guided ML. In principle, they are all that was proposed with the one-dimensional CNN extended the
similar applications where physical information is embedded in remaining useful prediction horizon by 127% compared to the
ML layers to increase the prediction performance, decrease the pure data-driven approaches. Similar to other studies that imple-
computational cost and reduce the required dataset size. While the mented PBML, they stated that the hybrid approach is less sensi-
physical information can be as simple as embedding a rule that tive to a low amount of data, unlike the pure data-driven
states, at a lower level, lake temperature cannot be higher than the approaches.
levels that are closer to the surface [71], it can also be an applica- Zhang and Garikipati [75] used a knowledge-based neural net-
tion of embedding and ordinary differential equation to the ker- work to predict free energy and nonlinear elastic response of
nels of the neural networks [72]. evolving microstructures. The knowledge-based neural network
consists of pretrained DNNs and CNNs that were trained with
3.3.2 Prognostics and Health Management Applications of small-scale fluctuations of free energy and predict homogenized
Physics-Based Machine Learning. Viana and Subramaniyan [17] stresses. They used low-fidelity data for pretraining to save on
summarized the papers about Bayesian calibration and PBML computational costs. While both DNN and CNN yielded promis-
studies in a comprehensive review paper. Approximately 260 sci- ing results, CNN proved to be more effective in three-dimensional
entific papers are reviewed and discussed in the paper. The appli- studies.
cations of hybrid physics-based neural networks (PBNN) are In another study, PBML was implemented to assess a power
explained in detail. They also presented their application of hybrid generator’s performance to take necessary actions [76]. A
PBML on corrosion fatigue using the recurrent neural network physics-informed LSTM and several approaches were used and
and multilayer perceptrons. This application investigates crack compared. LSTM showed superior performance compared to the
growth in aircraft fuselage panels. They stated that PBML was other approaches where the inputs were voltage and phase and
able to account for corrosion fatigue damage unlike the other outputs were active and reactive power.
methods and resulted in better prediction. The advantages of the Li et al. [77] proposed a PBML method for the estimation of
PBML are summarized as a reduction in computational cost and the blade wear of the bandsaw machines. Vibration and acoustic
modeling flexibility. signals are used for the surrogate physics informed model. A deep
Yucesan and Viana [18] proposed a novel PBNN model for the convolutional neural network (DCNN) is developed based on sur-
prediction of bearing fatigue of the WTs. The proposed method rogate physics informed model and replaced from it. The devel-
contains physics-informed data-driven layers within DNN. A total oped new DCNN model eliminates the high-cost measurements.
of 10 WT platforms are used for the model and bearing tempera- The effectiveness of the new DCNN is validated using the experi-
ture, weather data were collected every 10 min as well as monthly mental test from the bandsaw machine. It is seen that prosed
grease damage data were evaluated. To account for both grease DCNN method has much more superior performance than the tra-
damage and cumulative damage, a hybrid data-driven and PBML ditional ML methods.
method was used. Here, the data-driven approach was more suita- Sadoughi and Hu [16] used different neural network methods
ble to predict grease degradation which is difficult to model. On for fault diagnosis for rolling bearings. Traditional SVM, ANN,
the other hand, the physics of cumulative damage was used to CNN methods were used in this study also multiple physics-based
layers were added to the front part of a conventional CNN model, Liu et al. [84] offered a physics-based neural network material
making the model physically meaningful. This model is called a (NNMat) model that characterizes general material properties and
physics-based convolutional neural network (PCNN). The PCNN describes the material response of soft biological tissues. Once the
reduces the number of training parameters and lowers the risk of prosed NNMat is trained it can be used for different materials
overfitting. The PCNN can detect bearing faults with consistently without the need for retraining. This framework was achieved by
higher accuracy than the other ML methods. The proposed meth- adding a restriction to three layers of fully connected layers which
ods focus on single-bearing fault detection and localization. How- informs ML about the physics. The results demonstrated that
ever, the models should be verified for multiple bearings. NNMat performed significantly better than the other methods in
Hsu et al. [78] presented an ML approach to predict fracture accuracy metrics.
processes connecting molecular simulation into a data-driven Chun et al. [85] developed a novel GAN to produce realistic
physics-based model. The authors applied ML to learn the fracture microstructures that qualitatively and quantitatively replicate real
behavior of brittle materials through a CNN and LSTM unit. microstructures obtained from images. They indicated that GAN
Assessments of the predictive power of the ML model showed could serve as a suitable proxy for assembling simulations to
excellent agreement concerning the computed fracture patterns extract the physics of HMX material. Compared to recent DL-
and the fracture toughness values for both modes I and II loading based material synthesis methods, Chun et al. successfully scaled
conditions. to arbitrary size without stitching or quilting to produce a linear
Haupt et al. [79] created a (PBML) algorithm for the prediction and continuous control of morphology.
of renewable energy forecasting in Kuwait. Several various AI Huang et al. [86] proposed a shape deviation generator (SDG)
methods and the Kuwait Renewable Energy Prediction System under a novel convolution formulation to facilitate the learning
were used for the predictions of both short and long-range fore- and prediction of 3D printing accuracy. The SDG developed pro-
casting. The AI methods are reinforced with the dynamical/physi- vides a data-analytical framework to learn geometric measure-
cal models. Wind speed and temperature values were obtained by ment data of additive manufacturing-built products. Under a
the measurements used in the AI methods. The results show that convolution framework, SDG enables a consistent description of
the errors were decreased due to employing AI which also pro- 3D shape formation in layer-by-layer fabrication processes, from
vided smooth forecasting. Wu et al. [80] proposed a PBML horizontally built disks, vertically built disks, to fully 3D domes.
method to forecast ocean wave conditions multistep-ahead. In the This framework allows input functions to take complicated geo-
study, ANN was adopted to build implicit relations between metries for each layer and convolute with the transfer function to
inputs (wind speed and direction) and forecasted outputs (wave form complicated 3D shapes.
heights and peak period) of the wave conditions. With this study, The quality parameters of the turning operation were deter-
Wu et al. successfully forecasted the wave heights one day ahead mined via various ML algorithms and physics-based methods by
with high reliability. It was stated that this methodology is compu- Shettigar et al. [14]. ANNs are trained with the data collected
tationally more efficient than solving partial differential equations from the physics-based models by using a back-propagation algo-
for forecasting. Once the ANN was trained for site-specific data, rithm, genetic algorithm, artificial bee colony, and back-
the future predictions on new inputs are very straightforward and propagation algorithm trained with a self-feedback loop. The
extremely fast. ANNs are trained and developed as both forward and reverse
Howland and Dabiri [15] developed physics-based statistical mapping models. The results show that the prediction accuracies
models to accurately predict the power production of arbitrary of the PBML algorithms are much better than the others.
wind farms. The developed models are trained with a similar num-
ber of parameters. The most successful newly developed model is 3.3.3 Benefits and Challenges. The PBML has been relatively
the deficit-based data-driven network that relies on physical infor- new, and it combines physical rules of the studied phenomena to
mation gathered from the fluid dynamics of a turbulent WT. purely data-driven ML approaches. Although PBML is getting
Besides, the deficit statistical models diminished the mean abso- more and more popular lately due to its advantages, solely data-
lute error. However, physical interpretability can be challenging. driven approaches are more common. However, even very simple
Scher and Molinder [81] introduced a statistical method based physical rule restrictions that are embedded in ML algorithms can
on random forest regression to predict the production loss induced have several advantages. The benefits and challenges of PBML
by ice growth. Past forecasts and measurements from the regional are listed in Table 3. Due to these advantages, PBML should be
weather forecasts and on-site measurements are used as input for explored and implemented more in the WT PHM field.
the proposed model for training. The developed model reduces the
absolute error of production forecasts. Moreover, the algorithm is 3.3.4 The Role of Physics-Based Machine Learning. The
very cheap and can be easily retrained for new predictions. A lim- PBML combining the data from the experimental and numerical
ited number of data was used in this study; more data are needed solutions and PBML variables makes the algorithm better for
to generalize the method. complicated engineering problems. Pure data-driven monitoring
Samin [82] developed a PBML to investigate the early stages of approaches generally require a large amount of training data and
helium-induced damages in fusion reactors. An ANN was used in are affected by the uncertainties associated with the measurement
this study. The neural network was trained using a dataset of 120 noise. Here, adding the physics information into the ML model
density functional theory calculations on the alloys. The paper may improve generalization ability and reduce overfitting [30].
aims to predict helium solution energies in the binary W–Mo The PBML combines the experimental and numerical data and
alloys as a function of the local environment. As a result of the thus may offer better solutions for complicated engineering prob-
study, the paper gives beneficial input data for higher-level cluster lems. Especially in high uncertainty applications, for instance,
dynamic models. WT health monitoring, lack of physics information may increase
Liu et al. [83] proposed an alternative and efficient method for the amount of error of the ML algorithm and lead to erroneous
Stokes inversion for high-resolution polarimetric observations diagnoses [73,79]. The traditional ML algorithms are directly
obtained by Goode Solar Telescope/Near InfraRed Imaging Spec- depending on the input data sets. Moreover, most ML algorithms
tropolarimeter. PCNN and the Milne–Eddington (ME) are not a success for extrapolation. Using only experimental and
methods were used in this study. The proposed PCNN method computational methods have also significant drawbacks. Experi-
produced smooth and clean magnetic maps when it is compared to ments give the true results for only limited tested parameters.
the widely used ME method, based on the experimental Thus, understanding the complex systems with the experimental
results. Moreover, the developed CNN method is nearly four to methods will be too expensive and needs excessive time. Using
six times faster than the traditional ME method to produce mag- the physics-based data reduce dramatically the requirements of
netic fields. the training data and improves the accuracy and robustness and

Table 3 Benefits, challenges, and solutions—PBML
Improves the accuracy and robustness [72,78] Physics-based models may perform [15] Makes the ML model physically [13,28]
Reduces errors and uncertainty [71,77] lower in some applications meaningful
Can detect and localize faults with high accuracy [16,82] Physics information requires extra effort [15,18] Anomaly detection [28]
Reduced requirement of training data [17,75] More efficient models [17,73]
Lower computing time [70,81]
provides more efficient models [74,80]. The computational mod- result in safety issues and poor-quality performance. PHM utilizes
els have simplifications and approximations. Thus, the ML model, data from sensor measurements and information from the system
which takes data from the computational models, can be physi- or parts. At different stages of prognostics, including fault detec-
cally meaningless. However, the physics-based data makes the tion, diagnostics, and RUL calculation, PHM uses an algorithm to
ML model physically meaningful and decreases computing time. evaluate and ensure related outputs [24].
Moreover, the PBML models can even detect and localize faults Today, PHM is utilized among most DT applications. The first
with high accuracy and anomaly [13,30]. use of DTs was in the PHM of aircraft. Via uncertainty quantifica-
tion, ML, multiphysics modeling, damage models and structural
finite element method (FEM), and high-resolution structural anal-
3.4 Digital Twin
ysis, DT was used to estimate the RUL of aircraft. Consequently,
3.4.1 Definitions. Digital twin is not a completely new idea it was discovered that the use of DT can make aircraft service life
and has been getting a lot of attention in recent years from both management easier [19]. Recently, Schr€oder [30] used her DT-
academia and industry. DT is a collection of virtual information based approach on the offshore wind farm and modeled the power
structures and duplicates the context structure and behavior of an performance which was validated with power calculated using
individual or a group of physical objects. Also, DT is dynamically data recorded from the SCADA system. DT-driven PHM has sev-
modified with data from its physical twin during its life span, eral benefits over standard PMs. DT is a cyber-physical model
guiding value-creating choices [87]. Furthermore, the increasing supporting method that includes a physical entity, virtual entity,
trendiness of DT represents a pattern in which the virtual and real-time monitoring data, and historical operating data. DT
physical worlds are becoming more connected and incorporated includes both high-fidelity and low-fidelity virtual entities of a
as a whole. DT has been described in a variety of ways in aca- physical system that depends on physical laws and collects real-
demia and industry. At present, the two most generally accepted time monitoring data during the experiment and preserves histori-
definitions of DT were introduced by NASA and Michael Grieves. cal running data for offline analysis [91].
DT can be described as an augmented-reality integration, mapping Additionally, via smart context-aware and data transferring
connections between physical and virtual worlds by operating among entities, DT provides accurate data while also achieving
documenting, simulating, and predicting different entities and trustable, high quality, and dynamic models through structural
processes in the physical and virtual worlds [20,88]. FEM analysis and multidomain modeling. Thus, DT opens the
In the literature, there are a few common misconceptions. How- chance of a hybrid PHM method [19]. It is also recommended that
ever, these three definitions help to resolve the common DL be used to create DT directly from operational data using the
misconceptions. functional constraints of applying physics-based DTs and it is
Digital model: It is defined as a virtual representation of an called deep digital twin (DDT) which helps to enable PHM to be
actual or expected physical entity. A significant distinguishing more applicable for complex and autonomous manufacturing.
characteristic is that there is no automatic sharing of data between DDT has many advantages compared to traditional fault diagnosis
the physical and virtual entities. This signifies that after the digital methods. These utilize both physical entity monitoring data and
model has been developed, any changes to the physical object do virtual entity simulation data and have access to the design to
not affect the digital model [89,90]. operation and maintenance phases [92]. DDT manages situations
Digital shadow: There is a one-way connection between the that have had limited training data at the start of manufacturing
physical and virtual entities in a digital shadow. A change in the and different data distributions for each working condition, well.
physical entity causes a change in the virtual entity, but not the Furthermore, the PHM period can be extended from the produc-
other way around [31,90]. tion phase to the entire product lifecycle by DDT. The virtual
Digital twin: DT aims to build digital representations of physi- entity’s goal in DDT is to identify and fix possible design flaws
cal entities to simulate their behaviors and when you make a and develop a well-trained diagnostic or prognostic model in the
change to a physical object, it immediately affects the digital model development phase. In DDT models, the obtained informa-
object, and vice versa [20,90]. tion from the simulation can be sent from the virtual entity to the
The DT idea has been applied to WTs in recent years to physical entity without having to train the model from the begin-
advance predictive operation and maintenance technologies. Tao ning in the operation and maintenance process. The risk of unin-
et al. observe that DT in the area of wind energy infrastructure tended failure can be decreased significantly by using PHM in
needs to have a high-fidelity simulation model that accurately rep- virtual and physical entities at the same time. DDT makes smart
resents the physical entity of the WT and thus allows for accurate manufacturing more efficient, safe, and reliable [93]. Neverthe-
predictions of the physical turbine’s condition and its parts [21]. less, with the continued growth and updating of application
According to the wind energy infrastructure, the primary goal of a requirements, the innovation and applications of DT bring new
DT is accurately predicting the structural health condition of sin- trends and issues. Tao et al. [94] augmented the existing three-
gle WT parts, making for an accurate, reliable, and timely analysis dimension DT model and added two dimensions (DT data and
of the whole WT. DT may forecast the progression of the current service entities) to introduce a five-dimension DT model that can
damage condition by taking into account the current load history, be utilized for wind energy infrastructure using PHM and ML.
environmental circumstances, and manufacturing flaws, among An example of a five-dimension DT model using PHM and ML
other factors [23]. at a basic level for wind energy infrastructure process can be
described as the formula:
3.4.2 Prognostic and Health Management. Prognostics and ðModelÞDT ¼ ðPhysical entity; virtual entity; service entity;
health management is an applied science that assists in the reduc-
tion of component, product, and subsystem failures that could data entity; connector entityÞ
Physical entity: The base of DT is the physical entity. A tool or 3.4.3 Bayesian Updating. In Bayesian updating (model updat-
product, a physical structure, an operation may be found in the ing) a Bayesian formalism is used to integrate a phenomenon
physical entity. The operations in DT are applied while keeping model (e.g., model of crack growth and model of DT of a fixed-
into consideration, laws of science and uncertain conditions. wing unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV)) containing uncertain
According to its task and formation, physical entities could be parameters and the observed phenomenon data to update the phe-
categorized into three levels: unit level, system level, and system nomenon model parameters used to estimate and predict the phe-
of system. An example of levels in wind energy infrastructure can nomenon state [43,96,97]. Karve et al. [43] developed a
be demonstrated as unit level (turbine blade), system-level (WT), framework for intelligent mission planning which utilized Bayes-
the system of a system (wind farm). ian updating. The current state of damage was estimated by fuzing
Virtual entity: A virtual entity must be a reliable copy of a information from homogeneous data sources while providing an
physical entity, with accurate geometries, structures, behaviors, estimate of the diagnosis uncertainty. Furthermore, the authors
and laws. The physical facts of the entities like deflection, residual used a Bayesian update formula to estimate the parameters of their
stresses, fracture, and corrosion on the parts of a WT are reflected fatigue crack growth model, which was then used for probabilistic
by the physics model which is created with CAD/FEM built with damage prognosis. Most of the applications of Bayesian formal-
data entity and based on physical properties such as moment, ism have been limited to simply geometries with the application
strain, and force. of only homogeneous data. Recently, to respond to these limiting
Data entity: Twin data is the most crucial factor in DT. DT applications, Leser et al. [98] applied model updating to a geomet-
models work for data that is real-time monitoring, multisource rically complex, metallic test specimen. And Renganathan et al.
and multidimensional. The goal of data transfer is to achieve real- [70] used a Bayesian formalism to fuze in-complete and noisy
time data monitoring while maintaining no loss or destruction of data from wind tunnel measurements and deterministic but biased
data information. The data management in the DT model includes data from simulations. Ye et al. [99] used a Bayesian updating
data collection, data transmission, data storage, data processing, scheme in the framework they proposed for the health manage-
data fusion, and data visualization [95]. ment of reusable spacecraft. Specifically, they used the dynamic
Service entity: DT model is not complete without services. Bayesian network to estimate current and future (predicted) crack
Firstly, the DT model can be utilized with application services lengths. Once the predicted crack length exceeded the critical
like verification and validation, diagnosis, and prognosis, PHM. crack size, the spacecraft was de-emed usable with an intervention
Second, several third-party services are required including of maintenance. It was shown that the uncertainty of prediction of
information services data services, algorithms services to create the crack increased as the crack grew but through dynamic Bayes-
a functional DT model. At this level, ML can be used to train ian network the prediction of the crack growth was improved.
data from physical and virtual entities to create a reliable PHM Kapteyn et al. [96] formulated a fixed-wing UAV DT model
model. updating (adapting) as Bayesian state estimation. The central ele-
Connector entity: Information and data sharing is enabled ment of this application is a library of physics-based reduced-
through connections between physical, virtual, service, and data order models of the UAV. The authors used the online sensor data
entities. There are 6 DT connections which are the connections from the physical UAV to infer which models in the model library
between physical and data entities, virtual entity and data entities, would comprise the DT of UAV. They demonstrated that their
service entity and data entities, physical and virtual entities, vir- UAV was self-aware—able to dynamically detect and adapt to
tual and service entities, physical and service entities. These con- damage. Recently, Branlard et al. [22] updated a linear state-space
nections can be done by actuators, sensors, different kinds of model (using OPENFAST linearization features) of a GE 1.5 MW
software, and communication interfaces [20,32,93]. Figure 1 WT, using field measurements of the rotational speed of the high-
depicts the PHM for wind energy infrastructure in the realm of speed shaft, tower-top acceleration, generator torque, and pitch
DT and ML. Figure 1 also demonstrates that using the enabling angle obtained from the SCADA system. And with a Kalman filter
technologies (PBML, data augmentation for ML, and uncertainty algorithm, they estimated the tower-top position, wind speed, and
in ML) enhances the efficiency of PHM for a DT model in wind aerodynamic torque and thrust. Considering the five-dimension
energy infrastructure. DT model (see Fig. 1) the model updated would be conceptualized
Fig. 1 PHM for wind energy infrastructure

Table 4 Benefits, challenges, and solutions—digital twin
Improvements productivity of industry Slow wide-scale adoption in other industries Standardization needs to be increased
[20,31,103] [31] [20,87,104]
Facilitation of cooperation and collaboration Data security and intellectual property rights Blockchain technology [104]
in the sharing of data and models [103] [104]
Reduction in the manual effort of data Human-robot interaction collaboration [20] Increased automation [31]
exchange and analysis [103]
Verification and validation of single compo- Extrapolation from individual component Development of rigorous verification and
nent a full system [103] model verification and validation to the full validation extrapolation frameworks [20]
system [105]
Access to asset information or data [103] Nonheterogenous data across different Connecting previously unconnected data
models [70] sources [70]
Ease of combining low-fidelity and high- High-fidelity models are computationally Substituting the computer simulator with a
fidelity models [101,103] expensive [20] surrogate model [32,92]
Improving model accuracy and fidelity [105] Complex physics-based computational Development of computational models [43]
models [106]
Ease of model updating [22,43,70] Using longer data sets [22] Development of models with large degrees-
of-freedom [22]
Fuzing data [70] Quantify the confidence in the fused data Using a Bayesian framework to construct
[20] more accurate surrogate models [43]
Offline and online operation or analytics High precision simulation, geometric Using multiphysics simulation and surrogate
[22,99] models, and data library [99] modeling [70]
Ease of mission planning [43] Ensuring reliable system performance [103] Using quantification of uncertainty regard-
ing system properties, parameters, and
environment [101]
Visualization of data for support decision Creation of cloud-based data management Improvement of output delivery and
making [103,104] [20,104] visualization [43]
Enhance predictive maintenance based on Usage of massive operational data [20] Enabling technologies for digital twin data
prognostic [24,107] management [20,104]
to reside in the virtual entity, with the update data from the physi- the estimator. In the context of the five-dimension DT model (see
cal entity, while the Bayesian state estimation algorithms would Fig. 1), for example, low-fidelity (FAST) and high-fidelity (BLADED)
reside in the service entity as an “model updating” service. models would be conceptualized to reside in the virtual
entity, while the parametric hierarchical kriging algorithms would
reside in the service entity as an “uncertainty quantification”
3.4.4 Multifidelity Uncertainty Quantification. Peherstorfer service.
et al. [45] review multifidelity model management for uncertainty
quantification, statistical inference, and optimization. In each of 3.4.5 Benefits, Challenges, and Solutions of Digital Twin.
the three cases, the model management strategy could be based on Several benefits, challenges, and solutions of DT have been noted
filtering, information fusion, or adaption. The following discus- (see Table 4). Although the DT has great advantages such as
sions will focus on multifidelity model management for uncer- enhanced predictive maintenance based on prognostic, for exam-
tainty quantification. Multifidelity uncertainty quantification often ple, access to asset information or data, visualization of data for
involves a form of variance reduction techniques such as impor- support decision making, improved model accuracy and fidelity,
tance sampling, antithetic variates, control variates, conditional and ease the mission planning. However, there are currently some
Monte Carlo sampling, and stratified sampling. The recent review important issues and challenges that need to be further addressed
of Biehler et al. [100] demonstrates that overall the multifidelity and are related to these benefits. Moreover, there is already activ-
uncertainty quantification approaches that a nonintrusive—do not ity to overcome some of these challenges. For example, recently
require modification of existing legacy codes. The approaches can blockchain technology has been introduced to overcome issues
be categorized as Bayesian approaches, frequentist approaches, related to data security and intellectual property rights for facili-
and possibilistic approaches. The authors demonstrated the capa- tating cooperation and collaboration in the sharing of data and
bility of these approaches in coping with high stochastic dimen- models and increased automation can solve the issue related to
sions and complex nonlinear models. Abdallah et al. [101] applied human-robot interaction collaboration for reducing the manual
parametric hierarchical kriging in combining outputs from effort.
multifidelity time-domain aero-servo-elastic simulators (i.e., FAST
(low-fidelity) and BLADED (high-fidelity)) of an onshore WT expe- 3.4.6 The Role of Digital Twin in Diagnostics and Prognos-
riencing extreme loads. It was shown that the parametric hierarch- tics. According to the five-dimension DT model, as demonstrated
ical Kriging is a robust surrogate modeling technique and it in Fig. 1, where the connector entity threads the physical entity,
outperformed the conventional Kriging. In contributing to the sol- virtual entity, service entity, and data entity together, does provide
utions of multifidelity stochastic simulators, Abdallah et al. [102] a unique framework for services to be performed. For example,
introduced the framework they coined as unsupervised local the services of interest for this paper, are diagnostics and prognos-
cluster-weighted bootstrap aggregation. This is a two-step frame- tics, while naturally incorporating uncertainty quantification,
work, namely, deriving the simulators’ local weights, and per- physics-based modeling, and data augmentation (e.g., fuzing
forming a weighted ensemble aggregation on the stochastic homogeneous sources of data).
output, the framework was shown to produce a better precision of A DT framework can also simultaneously house (1) online
the estimator for a target confidence level and a better accuracy of (real-time) functions such as diagnosis supported by model
updating, performance evaluation, and data storage, and (2) off- precision and recall. Additionally, data augmentation has been
line applications such as prognosis and data sharing [99]. A DT solving the issue of overfitting the data during the training pro-
framework can use the measurements from a SCADA system of a cess. Advanced methods of data augmentation such as GAN have
wind turbine and estimate the tower bending stiffness, the tower improved the artificial data generation domain significantly by
loads from the tower-top position, and the tower shape function producing realistic datasets. In conclusion, data augmentation has
curvature [22]. This allows the real-time damage equivalent loads improved the diagnostics methods by providing a means of creat-
of the tower bottom moment to be accurately be estimated. The ing realistic datasets that improve the diagnostics by reducing
DT framework can be used to fuze noisy and incomplete experi- errors. Additionally, it also has reduced the cost of time and
mental data, deterministic but biased simulation data, and ground experiments to generate additional data. However, very few
truth measurements to yield a fused dataset that accounts for input attempts have been made to ensure the quality of the artificially
uncertainties [70]. This framework can also be used to fuze homo- generated datasets, hence there is a huge research gap in defining
geneous sources of data or heterogeneous sensing data [43]. The the parameters that can improve the quality of the datasets. It is of
fused dataset can then be used to construct a surrogate model for utmost importance to assess the sensitivity of the dataset after the
use in the DT PHM service. Karve et al. [43] used DT to fuze sen- data augmentation or data fusion techniques to ensure the effects
sor data and the previous history with the multifidelity multiphy- of the artificially increased dataset on the results. Few commenda-
sics model, considering uncertainties in probabilistic damage ble approaches have been made in literature which is from other
diagnosis, probabilistic prognosis, and mission optimization. This domains of science that can be utilized in the WT industry. Hence,
is an example of deploying a DT PHM service in harmony with more research is required to incorporate these techniques in the
an additional DT optimization service. application of DT for PHM in the case of the wind energy
The DT framework could combine physics-informed knowl- industry.
edge and data-driven knowledge into a single model, offering a
new viewpoint on fault diagnosis, and DT may accomplish better 4.3 Physics-Based Machine Learning. The third research
fault diagnosis localization and unbalanced quantification com- question was: What is the role of physics-based ML? The applica-
pared to traditional fault diagnosis techniques [30,108]. Finally, tions of combining various ML algorithms and physics-based
The DT framework provides an environment to exploit multifidel- methods for probabilistic in different scientific reals are discussed
ity and multiscale representation of system components in the DT comprehensively. The applications of combining various ML
virtual entity (representations of physical entity). For example, algorithms and physics-based methods for probabilistic in differ-
parametric hierarchical kriging [101] or unsupervised local ent scientific reals are discussed in this paper. Literature review
cluster-weighted bootstrap aggregation [102] could be used to reveals that using only experimental and computational data has
construct a wind turbine DT virtual entity to enhance the DT shortcomings. Incorporation of the experimental and computa-
PHM service entity. tional results with the physics-based variables generally increases
the predictive ability of the ML algorithms. In this respect,
PHM activities can be improved by adding prior physics knowl-
4 Conclusions edge to the ML process. PBML makes the ML model more mean-
4.1 Uncertainty in Machine Learning. This review of ingful and detects the local failures. Additionally, the PBML
uncertainty in machine learning addressed and responded to the decreases the data requirements, model errors, and associated
first research question: What is the role of uncertainty in ML in uncertainties as well as improves accuracy and efficiency. Never-
diagnostics and prognostics? It is of utmost critical to understand theless, more studies are still needed using the PBML in the wind
and interpret the role of uncertainty in ML in diagnostics and energy infrastructure field to enhance the efficiency of PHM for a
prognostics, especially for a large-scale and complex system such DT model.
as WTs. Due to the wide availability of sensors and ever-
increasing computing capabilities, ML algorithms have been uti-
4.4 Digital Twin. The fourth research question was: What is
lized in many applications, for instance, early fault diagnosis,
the role of the DT in diagnostics and prognostics? The DT pro-
RUL, and power curve estimation. To solve such problems, ML
vides an ecosystem that immensely enhances diagnostics and
makes predictions regarding future conditions based on available
prognostics. The includes the benefits enumerated in Table 4, for
historical data. However, from ML algorithm itself to the random-
example, model updating, combining low-fidelity and high-
ness of future working conditions are all sources of uncertainty.
fidelity models, offline and online operation or analytics, visual-
For handling uncertainty, its quantification plays a substantial role
ization of data for support decision making, and mission planning.
in improving the ML models’ ability and detecting outliers for
Whereas several DT service entities are executed for the five-
PHM activities. Altogether, uncertainty quantification in diagnos-
dimension DT framework, the discussion of DT in this paper
tics and prognostics tasks can result in more accurate and reliable
focuses on the DT PHM service. The DT framework provides an
outcomes and approximate reality. Therefore, unplanned shut-
integrated framework for PHM (i.e., diagnostics and prognostics),
downs and extra maintenance costs can be avoided by eliminating
while naturally incorporating uncertainty quantification, physics-
misdiagnoses.
based modeling, and data augmentation (e.g., fuzing homogene-
Generally, all proposed ML-based methods promise higher
ous sources of data). Thus, the DT framework provides a unique
accuracy than other comparative methods and better recognition
construction to exploit fully the benefits of uncertainty in ML,
of different fault data. ML can learn in the presence of large and
data augmentation for ML, and PBML. The framework can have
complex uncertainties in data. However, there is still a need for
simultaneously online (real-time) functions such as diagnosis sup-
definitive and highly accurate studies based on actual field data
ported by model updating, performance evaluation, and data stor-
better to evaluate the role of uncertainty in diagnostics and
age, and offline applications such as prognosis and data sharing.
prognostics.
The framework can also be used to fuze homogeneous sources of
data or heterogeneous sensing data. The fused dataset can then be
4.2 Data Augmentation for Machine Learning. This review used to construct a surrogate model for use in PHM. The DT
of data augmentation for ML addressed and responded to the sec- framework provides an environment to exploit multifidelity and
ond research question: What is the role of data augmentation and multiscale representation of system components in the DT virtual
quality of data for ML? According to the literature, the role of entity to enhance the DT PHM service entity. Lastly, the DT
data augmentation techniques has been a tool that has shown sig- framework provides an excellent platform to easily combine DT
nificant improvements in the accuracy of diagnostics at the same PHM service with other DT services, e.g., DT mission optimiza-
time improvement in the other performance indicators such as tion service.

Appendix A: Keywords Used for the Systematic Literature Review in Web of Science for Each Aspect of Prognos-
tics and Health Management
Table 5 Keywords used for literature search on Web of Science
Aspect of PHM (research question) Keywords
Uncertainty in ML (TS ¼ (wind turbine OR rotor OR blades OR drivetrain OR gearbox OR wind
energy infrastructure OR electricity grid OR bearing OR shaft OR mechanical
structures OR turbine structure OR turbine tower OR rotary machinery OR rotor
dynamics))
AND
(TS ¼ (machine learning OR deep learning OR artificial intelligence OR support
vector machines OR convolutional neural network OR long short-term memory
OR decision tree OR transfer learning OR neural networks))
AND
(TS ¼ (prognostics OR diagnostics OR condition monitoring OR health monitor-
ing OR health management OR maintenance OR remaining useful life))
AND
(TS ¼ (uncertainty OR probabilistic analysis OR stochastic))
Data augmentation in ML (TS ¼ (wind turbine OR rotor OR blades OR drivetrain OR gearbox OR generator
OR wind energy infrastructure OR electricity grid OR bearing OR shaft OR
mechanical structures OR turbine structure OR turbine tower OR rotary machin-
ery OR rotor dynamics))
AND
AND
(TS ¼ (prognostics OR diagnostics OR condition monitoring OR health
monitoring OR health management OR maintenance OR remaining useful life))
AND
(TS ¼ (data augmentation OR synthetic data OR image augmentation OR syn-
thetic images OR quality data))
Physics-based ML (TS ¼ (wind turbine OR rotor OR blades OR drivetrain OR gearbox OR generator

OR wind energy infrastructure OR electricity grid OR bearing OR composite OR
shaft OR mechanical structures OR turbine structure OR turbine tower OR rotary
machinery OR rotor dynamics))
AND
AND
(TS ¼ (physics-based machine learning OR physics informed machine learning
OR physics-based machine learning))
Digital twin (TS ¼ (digital twin OR digital-twin OR prognostics OR diagnostics OR condition

monitoring OR health monitoring))
AND
(TS ¼ (digital twin OR digital-twin OR cyber twin OR cyber-physical OR virtual
twin))
AND
(TS ¼ (digital twin OR digital-twin OR wind turbine OR rotor OR blades OR
drivetrain OR gearbox OR wind energy infrastructure OR rotary machinery))
AND
(TS ¼ (digital twin OR digital-twin OR machine learning OR deep learning OR
transfer learning OR neural networks))
Appendix B: Inclusion and Exclusion Criteria and Systematic Literature Review
Table 6 Inclusion and exclusion criteria
Inclusion and exclusion Criteria Details Comments
Exclusion Search engine results No open access The full texts of the papers were not available
Nonrelated Papers do not discuss the topic
Weakly related Papers do not delve into the details of the topic
Inclusion Search engine results Closely related Papers elaborate on the topic
Partially related Papers partially discuss the topic
Fig. 2 Results of the phases of the systematic literature review
Appendix C: List of Records (n 5 136)

Table 7 Records - uncertainty in ML (n 5 38) Table 9 Records - physics-based ML (n 5 22)
[1–7,26,35–46,109–126]* [13–18,71–86]
*
References [43,45,46] are in Tables 7 and 10
Table 10 Records - digital twin (n 5 55)
Table 8 Records - data augmentation for ML (n 5 32)
[19–25,30–32,43,45,46,70,87–108,127–145]a
[8–12,27–29,47–70]*
a
References [43], [45], and [46] are in Tables 7 and 10. Reference [70] is
*
Reference [70] is in Tables 8 and 10 in Tables 8 and 10.

Physics- Digital
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Celalettin Y€

020801-2 / Vol. 8, JUNE 2022 Transactions of the ASME

020801-4 / Vol. 8, JUNE 2022 Transactions of the ASME

Benefits Challenges Solutions

Provides a guidance [41] Difficulties in reflect- [36] Bootstrap method [26,41]

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Benefits Challenges Solutions

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Benefits Challenges Solutions

Fig. 1 PHM for wind energy infrastructure

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Benefits Challenges Solutions

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Table 5 Keywords used for literature search on Web of Science

Aspect of PHM (research question) Keywords

Physics-based ML (TS ¼ (wind turbine OR rotor OR blades OR drivetrain OR gearbox OR generator

Digital twin (TS ¼ (digital twin OR digital-twin OR prognostics OR diagnostics OR condition

Table 6 Inclusion and exclusion criteria

Inclusion and exclusion Criteria Details Comments

Appendix C: List of Records (n 5 136)

020801-14 / Vol. 8, JUNE 2022 Transactions of the ASME

Physics- Digital twin Uncertainty

Gecgel, O., Dias, J. P., and Ekwaro-Osire, S., 2020, “Uncertainty

tive Studies,” Appl. Sci., 10(23), p. 8685.

of Composites Based on Analysis of Lamb Wave Signals Using Machine

Science), K. L. Cavalca and H. I. Weber, eds., Springer, Cham, Switzerland,

Simulated Data,” IEEE International Conference on Prognostics and Health

iel, G. B., de Castro, H. F., and Cavalca, K. L., 2020, “Simulation-Driven

Deep Learning Approach for Wear Diagnostics in Hydrodynamic Journal

Bearings,” ASME J. Tribol., 143(8), p. 084501.

With Interpretable Physics-Informed Machine Learning,” Energies, 12(14),

bration and Physics-Informed Neural Networks in Scientific Modeling,” Arch.

Comput. Methods Eng., 28, pp. 3801–3830.

3 references overlap between uncertainty and digital twin.

Industry: State-of-the-Art,” IEEE Trans. Ind. Inf., 15(4), pp.

Prognostics and Health Management for Complex Equipment,” CIRP Ann.,

67(1), pp. 169–172.

and Prognostics of Light-Emitting Diodes,” Laser Photonics Rev., 14(12),

020801-16 / Vol. 8, JUNE 2022 Transactions of the ASME

020801-18 / Vol. 8, JUNE 2022 Transactions of the ASME

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