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FINE - William - Mathematical Evaluation For Controlling Hazards
FINE - William - Mathematical Evaluation For Controlling Hazards
FINE - William - Mathematical Evaluation For Controlling Hazards
By:
William T. Fine
//
i
UNCLASS IFIED
NOLTR 71-31
These methods are promulgated for information and for any use
desired by addressees. It is believed they have universal appli-
cation and should provide advancement in the state of the art of
the safety engineering profession.
GEORGE G. BALL
Captain, USN
ROBERT ENNIS
By direction
ii
NOLTR 71-31
CONTENTS
Chapter I
INTRODUCTION
Section Page
1 General .......................... ........... 1
2 Definitions ........................ * *.*............. 2
Chapter II
FORMULA FOR EVALUATING THE SERIOUSNESS
OF A RISK DUE TO A HAZARD
Chapter III
FORMULA TO DETERMINE JUSTIFICATION
FOR RECOMMENDED CORRECTIVE ACTION
iii
NOLTR 71-31
Chapter 1
INTRODUCTION
2
NOLTR 71- 31
3
NOLTR 71 -31
Chapter 2
Abbreviated: R = Cx E x P
Description Rating
4
NOLTR 71- 31
Description Rating
Description Rating
5
NOLTR 71- 31
DESCRIPTION Rating
7 Pedestrian is killed.
7
NOLTR 71- 31
(b) Step 2.
8
NOLTR 7 1- 31
L
NOLTR 71- 31
10
NOLTR 71-31
4 R = 25 x 1 x 0.5 = 12.5
R = 25 x 2 x 0.5 = 25
d. Exanyle No. 4
12
NOLTR 71- 31
R = 25 x 1 x 1 = 25
13
NOLTR 71- 31
e. Example No. 5 (Actual case)
R = 5 x 6x 1 = 30
14
NOLTR 71- 31
15
NOLTR 71-31
Table 1
Chapter 3
CxExP
CF xDC
Cost Rating
18
NOLTR 71- 31
Cost Rating
Description Rating
Cx E xP
CF x DC
253x0.5 3.
J= 3X2 0.6 =6.25
20
NOLTR 71-31
_5 x 10 X 6 _ 300 .
J- 2x3 - 6
21
NOLTR 71-31
J 25 x
•I 1.5 37.5
4x2 8 4.7
22
NOLTR 71-331
j = 25 x 1 x 1 = 25 = 4.20
3 x2 6
23
NOLTR 71-31
5--6x1 x 30
11x3 - 3 10
(3) Conclusion. The cost of the decal warning signs
is justified.
1 10 x 6 60 15
Jx4 = 4
24
NOLTR 71-31
25
NOLTR 71-31
26
NOZaTR 71-31
Appendix A
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
C Consequence:
E Exposure:
P Probability:
CF Cost Factor:
DC Degree of Correction:
J = C x E x P x x
J Justification:
CF xDC x
27
LOLTR 71-31
Appendix B
5. Decree of
Correction. a. Hazard positively eliminated, 100% .......... 1
b. Hazard reduced at least 75%................. 2
Degree to which c. Hazard reduced by 50% to 75%................ 3
hazard will be d. Hazard reduced by 25% to 50% ................ 4
reduced. e. Slight effect on hazard (less than 25%) ..... 6
28
UNCLASS IFIED
Securitv Classification
DOCUMENT CONTROL DATA - R & D
(Security classification of title, body of abstract and indexing annotation must be entered when tite overall report is classiited)
1. ORIGINATING ACTIVITY (Corporate author) 2&.2.REPORT SECURITY CLASSIFICATION
Naval Ordnance Laboratory |UNCLASSIFIED
White Oak, Silver Spring, Maryland 20910 •7b ROUP
3. REPORT TITLE
William T. Fine
8 March 1971 45 0
as. CONTRACT OR GRANT NO. as. ORIGINATOR'S REPORT NUMBERIS)
C. Sb. OTHER REPORT NO(S) (Any other nulnbers that may be aassgned
thie report)
d.
10. DISTRIBUTION STATEMENT
This document has been approved for public realease and sale,
its distribution is unlimited.
It. SUPPLEMENTARY NOTES 12. SPONSORING MILITARY ACTIVITY
13. ABSTRACT
J Formula
Accident sequence
Calculated risk
Hazard-event
Consequences
Exposure
Probability
Cost Factor
Degree of Correction
Justification
Risk Score