ASSIGNMENT No: 1

Subject Issues in Pakistan

Submitted by:

Roll No:

Class: MSC (Economics)

Date: 13.12.2021

Semester: 4th

Session: 2019-2021

University of Kotli
Azad Jammu and Kashmir

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 TABLE OF CONTENTS
Abstract ........................................................................................................................................... 3
1 Introduction ............................................................................................................................. 4
2 Review of Literature ................................................................................................................ 5
3 Methodology............................................................................................................................ 7
4 Energy security framework and recommendations ............................................................... 10
Recommendations ......................................................................................................................... 11
5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................................. 12
References ..................................................................................................................................... 13

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 CLIMATE CHANGE EFFECT ON PAKISTAN ECONOMY
Abstract
Pakistan is recognized as a country with low income along with poor human development
indicators. Although its contribution to greenhouse gasoline (GHG) emissions is miniscule in
evaluation with other international locations (it contributes most effective about zero.8 per cent of
the full GHG emissions), it's far one of the main victims of the negative results of weather trade.
The present look at is an attempt to discover the influences of weather change on the economic
increase of Pakistan by engaging in a country wide stage evaluation for the length 1973–2011. It
has been located that temperature (proxy for climate change) has a negative and giant relationship
with GDP, as well as with productiveness inside the agricultural, manufacturing and offerings
sectors. The severity of those terrible outcomes is better for the Agriculture quarter compared to
manufacturing and services.
Key words: climate change, economic growth, seemingly unrelated regression.

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Introduction
The consequences of weather exchange on monetary improvement are not a thriller but are
swiftly turning into a stark reality. Accelerating emissions of the greenhouse gases (GHGs) in
developing countries, specially inside the emerging economies, have raised extreme worries about
the connection among climate exchange and financial growth. Rising GHG emissions are resulting
inside the increased temperatures and are having critical effects on climate. Although climate
exchange may additionally to start with have some high quality consequences for a few developed
international locations, for example, Canada, in the end it is going to be negative (Parry et al.,
2007).
Moreover, the impacts of climate trade aren't frivolously allotted – the poorest nations and
those will go through earliest and maximum (Nordhaus, 1991; Stern, 2006) – because those
international locations are more at risk of the negative effects of weather trade on water resources,
ecosystems, crop manufacturing, fisheries and human fitness. These international locations have a
big population depending on climate touchy sectors and that they have low adaptive capability to
expand and implement version strategies. Despite their constrained position in GHGs emission
they have to endure the value for advertising and adoption of various mitigation strategies
(Sathaye, 2006). Similarly, due to restricted adaptive capacities in those international locations
terrible groups are a lot greater vulnerable (Parry et al., 2007).
Since Independence in 1947, significant industrialization has taken place in Pakistan,
therefore GHG emissions have multiplied and has resulted in converting the climate considerably.
However, climate exchange and associated risks were no longer on the policy agenda in Pakistan
until the usa confronted numerous devastating natural disasters. In this regard, the earthquake in
2005 turned into a turning factor because it compelled the government to take foremost steps in
the form of catastrophe preparedness and mitigation. In this regard, the National Disaster
Ordinance changed into promulgated in 2006 and the National Disaster Management Authority
(NDMA) was set up. It is noteworthy that the performance and technical capacity of the NDMA
was no longer high-quality at some point of the floods 2010–eleven; these floods introduced
horrendous devastation, the aftermath of which can be nonetheless being skilled. It may be
summarized that Pakistan’s vulnerability to repeated natural disasters (e.G., droughts (2000),
earthquake (2005) and floods (2010 and 2011) alerted the government in the direction of the
dangers posed through natural disasters and weather alternate. In this regard the ‘National

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Environment and Climate Change Policy’ turned into formulated in 2005 and in 2008 the Planning
Commission fashioned a special venture pressure on climate change to address numerous weather
alternate problems in Pakistan, like the extended variability of the monsoons, the fast melting of
Himalayan glaciers and the increased siltation of dams, and so forth. (Hamid et al., 2011).
The present examine will analyses the outcomes of climate exchange on the overall economic
boom of Pakistan as there may be very limited studies available that has analyzed how weather
alternate is affecting the economy of Pakistan. The organization of the item is as follows: after
the introduction, the phase ‘Literature evaluation’ affords the literature evaluation and the phase
‘The situation for Pakistan’ describes the state of affairs of weather change in Pakistan. In the
phase ‘Theoretical version’ a theoretical model for climate alternate and monetary growth is
developed. The empirical model in conjunction with a description of records is provided in the
section ‘Empirical model and outline of Data’. The section ‘Estimation results’ is dedicated to
the dialogue of the estimation consequences at the same time as the last segment ‘Conclusions
and coverage implications’ offers coverage implications and tips for further research.
Review of Literature
Global climate change
According to Wheeler,1 climate change can be the result of natural causes, human activities, and
the emission of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane and changes in land use.
Climate trade brings adjustments in period and intensity of weather situations by growing hotter
temperatures, changes to rainfall sample, and accelerated frequency and severity. The Fifth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change describes a clear human
influence on climate behavior. This report states that: “Climate change will make bigger present
risks and create new risks for herbal and human beings”.2 Risks associated with climate alternate
can be due to harsh weather situations which includes excessive heat waves, immoderate
precipitation, and non-stop flooding. The intensity of heat waves has increased in big components
of Europe, Asia, and Australia. Similarly, the incidence of heavy precipitation occasions has also
extended in land.
Economic related impact of changing climate in Pakistan
Food: Food security is by and large related to crop manufacturing and food accessibility; each of
these factors are at once suffering from weather alternate. Thus, weather exchange is a first-rate
element figuring out worldwide, national, and regional food safety. According to DailyTimes

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Report, (April 16 2015), The Climate Change Federal Minister, Senator, Mushahid Ullah Khan
recalled and warned that natural calamities might display elevated frequency inside the usa. The
one unmarried occasion of devastating 2010 flooding eroded away 6 percent of our GDP. The
World Wide Fund for Nature-Pakistan (WWF-Pakistan), in collaboration with the London School
of Economics-Political Sciences and Lahore University of Management Sciences supplied a report
and highlighted the issue of weather change in Pakistan and its impact on agriculture and meals
protection. According to this file, converting climate will directly affect agricultural
productiveness. By 2040, an boom in common temperature of 0.5 degree Celsius is anticipated
nationwide, with eight-10 percentage loss in terms of all vegetation corresponding to Pakistani
Rupees 30,000 in line with acre.
The 2014 German Watch Index, a German-based prestigious suppose-tank on weather
exchange, stated Pakistan as among top ten most susceptible countries inside the global. Only for
the duration of 2010, the flood ended in 6 percentage loss or united states of america’s GDP. A
joint study via Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) and Pakistan Meteorological
Department (PMD) approximately future eventualities in context of climate alternate in Pakistan
revealed that there are enormous adjustments in temperature and increasing trend in each minimum
and maximum extremes over the region. Therefore, within the scenario of excessive vulnerability
to extreme impacts of climate alternate associated with meals protection and sustainable power
manufacturing, a coverage file as a framework has highlighted the essential diversifications for
various sectors inclusive of agriculture, water, electricity, and farm animals. (GCISC & PMD and
joint document on weather exchange 2007).
Energy; Climate trade has direct effects on strength with respect to its use and production. The
essential results of changing weather are a growth in strength intake in residential, industrial, and
enterprise sectors for extraordinary purposes along with for area cooling in response to elevated
temperature and business method cooling (in thermal power plant life and steel mills),
refrigeration, pumping water for municipal and agricultural irrigation. Energy transport and fuel
kinds including electricity use for aircon and use of herbal gas for heating are also affected. The
concept of electricity security relies on following three tiers described with the aid of Martín et al.
a. Availability and adequate supply of energy to meet increasing demand

b. Accessible energy resources

c. Potential of guaranteed fuel supply without any disturbance by external factors.

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 Wilbanks et al.,4 described that the most remarkable potential impacts of climate change are as
follows:
i. Increase in electricity consumption for cooling functions in residential, business, and
business regions.
ii. High energy consumption for residential and business refrigeration
iii. Increase in energy supply to such assets that are weather responsive, for example pumping
water for irrigated agriculture and municipal uses
iv. Changes within the form of power use and its kind which includes use of energy for air
con and herbal gasoline usage for heating motive.
v. Changes in electricity consumption in that weather sensitive sectors that play function in
the economic system, together with transportation, production and agriculture.
Methodology
The gift observe is based on literature studies; figures and facts were referred from
secondary information. Typical assets of take a look at are reviews of global institutes and groups,
publications through government sectors and non-government structures, studies articles, media,
and net sources. Further, information from evaluation reports and reliable documents issued by
way of exceptional kingdom department running on climate change and its relation with socio-
monetary factors within the united states of america has additionally been protected on this paper.
The documents and reports have been obtained from; German Watch Index, the Food and
Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Government of Environment and Climate
Change; Ministry of National Food Security & Research, Finance country department, Food,
Agriculture & Livestock Division, Pakistan Flood Commission, Pakistan Agriculture Research
Council and Pakistan Planning Commission. In addition, the reports, files, and policy briefs
obtained from specific NGOs operating in Pakistan and UN businesses had been also consulted.
This take a look at is composed of different sections to research the affects of climate trade in
recent years and the repute of Pakistan with admire to its outcomes on meals, power, and herbal
assets. The first segment of this take a look at is about the heritage data of the hassle being studied.
Second, technique of modern studies and sources of literature evaluate are referred to. Third, the
sample of weather alternate in the world is described and countries which are maximum affected
with this alteration are indexed on the premise of various variables (mainly food insecurity and
GDP). It provides the analysis of monetary losses due to climate change globally and specially in

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Pakistan. The fourth phase provides overviews of potential threats to agriculture, electricity, and
water quarter due to hot temperature and floods in relation to Pakistan. The last part of this study
is centered on conclusions and recommendations, based on capability impacts of climatic alternate
and strategies had to increase as a future situation, in light of available assets.
Climate trade is increasing vulnerability all around the world and people are facing
excessive effects of variable environments at the worldwide degree. Extreme weather conditions
have led to massive losses in terms of elevated dying price and economy damages. Changes in
climate can shift the seasonal crop sample; consequently, resulting in behind schedule planting
and harvesting. Elevated temperature and shortages of adequate water may additionally have an
effect on the productivity of crops and cattle. The meals security threats associated with
manufacturing sample and performance affects will in all likelihood cause dangers for the
livelihood of small scale farmer and manufacturers in growing nations, who're less able to cope
with these harsh climatic adjustments; therefore, their protection and welfare is compromised.
Losses from natural disasters
Natural screw ups are growing alarming situations globally by means of stressful
ecosystem, in addition to limiting water deliver and land use for agricultural purposes. The results
of herbal failures are; reduced soil vitamins, soil erosion, desertification, and depletion of herbal
water resources. Biodiversity is also getting affected by weather exchange conditions and human
conduct like urbanization, deforestation, and pollutants and so forth. Gene pool diversity, that's a
key device for enhancing agricultural merchandise, is lowering in herbal environment because of
modernization in agriculture, herbal disasters, adjustments in climate and human habits, and
increasing population length. Pakistan has been dealing with non-stop threats and damages because
of herbal screw ups like earthquakes, extreme heat waves, and flooding in current years. Since
2010 to onward, Has had to deal with the results of severe flooding. Even as currently as 2015,
flood warnings had been issued in Punjab. These natural devastating conditions are possibly to
reason huge economic loss by destroying the infrastructure and implementing intense affects on
meals safety. During beyond few years, Pakistan has confronted overwhelming losses because of
only floods. In 2010 alone, the ones losses passed US$ nine.6 billion. Since 2010, five consecutive
floods led to extra than US$25 billion of financial loss in damages to distinct sectors like
agriculture, irrigation, public infrastructure, fitness and academic facilities, and many others.
(Government of Pakistan Climate Change Division Pakistan, November 2013).

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Future climate change in Pakistan and expected consequences
According to Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery employer (GFDRR)
temperature can be improved by way of 1.Four to 3.7°C inside the south and coastal areas of
Pakistan through 2060s. Rainfall forecasts vary from region to region and season to season.
Heavy rain falls can also boom in proportion, ensuing in extreme damages to infrastructure and
agriculture quarter specifically. So, it is able to be concluded that Pakistan can suffer excessive
extreme climate modifications. As a result of these uncertain weather conditions, crop production
could be affected without delay. There would be a severe reduction in ok meals production and
change in strength manufacturing and call for. A Brochure on climate change via Pakistan
Institute of Development Economics describes that due to boom in temperature developing
season for most important cereal vegetation can be declined in all agricultural zones of Pakistan,
following 6-eleven % reduction in wheat yield and 15-18% discount in yield of basmati rice with
the aid of 12 months 2080. While cattle production should lessen by 20-30% due to growth in
temperature pushing fees excessive.
Sustainable Food and Energy Production Policy; To Feed and Fuel the Future
It is being taken into consideration that the rate of burden on natural resources-land, water,
biodiversity, strength may be relatively moderated within the next 50 years compared to beyond
50 years. However, there will be contradicting scenario in case of meals and biofuel because of
environmental degradation and increasing populace. Just first-class anticipated meals and feed call
for will require 70 percent growth in global meals production [7]. Due to continuous climatic
alternate and its influences on meals manufacturing and accessibility, developing international
locations are subjected to terrible influences wherein food insecurity already exists. To meet the
demanding situations of meals protection in response to projecting demand, there's need of an
movement plan to ensure the provision of good enough meals to people within the united states.
In growing international locations, the agriculture area have to be given more priority in the area
of studies, improvement, and extension offerings.

Monitoring of climate system

For attaining the purpose of sustainable food manufacturing and to feed the increasing population
in future, collaborative work is essential among Government, Research institutes, and international
companies. The most critical element of this state of affairs is to create effective links with
international markets and the international change gadget to have get right of entry to to solid

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meals and power deliver thru a framework. Long term coverage and framework for sustainable
meals manufacturing specially require;

i. More investment in agriculture sector to enhance production potential,

ii. Introduction and use of modern technology,

iii. Support to farmers and effective extension services, and

iv. Linking global trade markets to national sectors.

Energy security framework and recommendations
Generally, electricity protection refers to the amount of power intake taken from renewable inner
manner; for this reason, it isn't imported. It is obvious that adjustments in temperature,
precipitation, sea level, and frequency and intensity of intense occasions will ultimately affect the
power production, supply and intake. Energy is used for distinct functions, for example, for lights
and cooling, heating, gasoline for transportation and cooking. Production of strength and its use is
linked with many different elements of contemporary existence, such as economic increase, water
consumption, land use, use of goods and services, transportation and population boom. Climate
exchange will possibly determine quantity of strength to be consumed as well as our capacity to
produce strength and supply it reliably. According to National Economic & Environmental
Development Study, the proportion of oil and herbal fuel will decline, while the percentage of
renewable and nuclear energy is considered to be increasing by 2030. The percentage of coal is
anticipated to be 19% in 2030 compared to 7.6% in 2005 (Table 2). The alternatives for mitigating
weather change are huge within the energy quarter for each the production as well as deliver
components. For power demand, major attention is on the shipping, residence, in addition to
commercial quarter at the same time as for deliver side, shifts within the gas mix (renewable
electricity promoting) and performance enchantments is targeted 8,9 (Figure 3).

Impact of global climate change on economy of Pakistan: how to ensure sustainable food and
energy production

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Table 2 Energy demand projections by fuel in Pakistan’s energy security action plan

Figure 3 Flow diagram of change in climate and its impacts.

Recommendations
National energy policies: National energy policies especially renewable electricity guidelines
include making plans for excess potential, an specific seasoned-bad measurement, the projection
to maximize the utilization of renewable electricity sources, and the constructing of reliable
statistical databases, are needed to be made.
Promotion of renewable energy: The extended use of renewable electricity ought to be part of
the development software, elevating political dedication to its merchandising. It will require
greater political will and dedication to attain the a hit implementation of these strength plans.

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Special policy packages: Governments have to follow particular coverage packages and tax
incentives to promote electricity efficiency and renewable power initiatives.
Development of laws and legislative action plans: Government have to take legislative actions
to criminalize the robbery of strength. To be honest, law enforcement should be aligned with the
specific, pro-poor size to be blanketed in electricity planning.

Promote research and study fields for biofuel production: There's want to run studies
initiatives and better research on biomass programs for energy generation will be accomplished
at the home stage, considering feasible GHG emissions and agricultural and infrastructural
improvement. Production of biofuel crops should be targeted to fulfill the strength call for from
all to be had sources.
Awareness campaigns: Campaigns for increasing the awareness of the population on energy
savings and the necessity for extensive use of renewable energy sources.

Conclusion
Environmental changes are continuous affecting food and strength call for in the international. In
the mild of growing populace issue and associated expanded food and energy call for in Pakistan,
there is need to increase long-time period rules at Government degree to fight starvation and
stabilize the electricity deliver. These key difficulties are gambling important role inside the
economic balance of the usa. Future framework can be helpful in addressing and mitigating the
feasible results of the climate trade on meals and electricity in context with their call for and supply.

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References
Wheeler T. Climate change impacts on food systems and implications for climate-compatible food
policies, In: Climate change and food systems: global assessments and implications for
food security and trade. Rome: Food Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
(FAO); 2015.

Climate Change: Synthesis Report. Geneva, Switzerland: Intergovernmental Panel on Climate

Change (IPCC); 2014. 115 p.

Martín R, Gomes C, Alleyne D, et al. An assessment of the economic and social impacts of climate
change on the energy sector in the Caribbean. Santiago: United Nations; 2013.

Wilbanks TJ, Bhatt V, Daniel BE, et al. Effects of Climate Change on Energy Production and Use
in the United States. United States: Climate Change Science Program (CCSP); 2008.

Khan MA, Amir P, Ramay SA, et al. National Economic, Environment and Development Study
(NEEDS); Project report for Climate Change. Islamabad: Ministry of Environment of
Pakistan; 2011.

Climate change to cut Pak crop yields by 10 percent. Daily times, Lahore, Pakistan; 2015.

FAO’s Director-General. How to Feed the World in 2050. Population and Development Review.
2000. p. 837–839.

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