Scenario: "Howard reports that his optimistic estimate is 16 hours, his most likely estimate is 24

hours, and the pessimistic estimate is 65 hours. What is the estimated duration for Howard’s
activity?"

To estimate the duration of Howard’s activity we can use PERT calculation. PERT stands for Program
Evaluation and Review Technique, which is a three-point activity estimating technique that
considers estimation uncertainty and risk by using three estimates to define an approximate
probability for an activity’s cost or duration. The three estimates are:

➢ Most likely (M) → the activity duration of the activity, based on a realistic effort assessment
for the required work and any predicted expenses
➢ Optimistic time estimate (O) → the activity duration based on an analysis of the best-case
scenario for the activity.
➢ Pessimistic time estimate (P) → the activity duration based on an analysis of the worst-case
scenario for the activity.

So, to estimate the duration of activity the Pert formula is:

(𝑂 + 4 ∗ 𝑀 + 𝑃)
𝐸=
6
That means that we are weighting the most likely estimate by a factor of four (4) and then
determining the average of the weighted most likely time, the best-case scenario, and the worst-
case scenario

The estimated duration for Howard’s activity will be:

(16 + 4 ∗ 24 + 65)
𝐸= = 29.5
6