AMIS Market Monitor No.

99 June 2022 3

World supply-demand outlook

FAO-AMIS USDA IGC  
WHEAT production in 2022 is forecast to decline for the first time in

Wheat
2021/22 2022/23 2021/22 2022/23 2020/21 2021/22
four years, down 0.8 percent from the 2021 record, mostly reflecting est f'cast est f'cast est f'cast
lower expected outputs in Australia, India, Morocco, and Ukraine. 2 Jun 12 May 19 May

Utilization is seen falling in 2022/23, down 0.4 percent from 2021/22, 776.8 770.8 779.3 774.8 774.3 781.2

Stocks Trade Utiliz. Supply Prod.

T O N N E S
led by a decline in feed use, as a result of high prices, and, to a lesser 639.9 634.0 642.3 639.8 640.0 644.1
extent, industrial use. 1068.2 1067.4 1070.5 1054.5 1049.5 1059.7
Trade in 2022/23 (July/June) is set to contract from the 2021/22 record, 800.9 796.7 789.4 777.6 786.2 795.5
mainly reflecting lower exports from Ukraine, due to conflict disruptions, 771.7 768.6 790.8 787.5 770.9 777.6

M I L L I O N
as well as Argentina, Australia, and India, stemming from lower 628.9 630.9 642.8 643.5 625.0 636.8
production, on top of an export ban in India.
192.1 188.9 201.6 205.3 190.3 193.6
Stocks (ending in 2023) forecast to rise marginally above opening levels, 182.6 181.1 191.9 195.8 179.3 184.0
with increases mostly in China, Russia, and Ukraine outweighing
296.5 297.8 279.7 267.0 278.5 282.1
anticipated stock drawdowns in several countries in Africa and Asia.

I N
162.8 157.2 137.8 125.5 150.2 149.1

FAO-AMIS USDA IGC  

MAIZE production in 2022 is forecast to decline, down 1.6 percent

Maize
2021/22 2022/23 2021/22 2022/23 2020/21 2021/22
from the 2021 record, led by smaller outputs in Ukraine and in the US. est f'cast est f'cast est f'cast

Utilization in 2022/23 set to contract by 0.4 percent, almost entirely 2 Jun 12 May 19 May
reflecting lower feed use, especially in Canada, the EU, and the US. 1206.7 1187.8 1215.6 1180.7 1131.5 1213.8
Stocks Trade Utiliz. Supply Prod.

T O N N E S
934.2 914.8 943.1 909.7 870.8 941.2
Trade is forecast to fall in 2022/23 (July/June), driven by an expected
steep fall in exports from Ukraine, as well as lower export availability in 1493.8 1491.5 1508.8 1490.1 1429.4 1492.7
Argentina and the US. On the importer side, smaller purchases are 1067.1 1062.7 1030.5 1008.9 976.9 1025.8
projected for Canada, China, and the EU. 1194.8 1189.7 1199.4 1185.0 1150.6 1207.5

M I L L I O N
Stocks (ending 2023) are forecast to decline, down 1.1 percent below 902.9 893.3 908.4 890.0 862.7 908.8
opening levels. While the largest drawdowns are expected in China and 180.8 174.2 190.5 183.2 188.1 174.2
the US, stocks are seen falling at the regional level in Asia, Northern 157.3 154.2 167.5 165.2 158.3 154.2
America, Africa, Central America, and Europe.
303.7 300.3 309.4 305.1 278.9 285.2

I N
147.9 147.9 99.2 100.9 84.5 97.0

FAO-AMIS USDA IGC  

RICE production in 2022 forecast to be just short of the 2021 2021/22 2022/23 2021/22 2022/23 2020/21 2021/22
Rice

all-time high, as another abundant Asian harvest, as well as larger crops est f'cast est f'cast est f'cast
in Africa and Australia, largely compensate for shortfalls elsewhere. 2 Jun 12 May 19 May
520.8 519.5 512.9 514.6 510.2 514.4
Stocks Trade Utiliz. Supply Prod.

Utilization in 2022/23 seen little changed from the 2021/22 peak, as

T O N N E S
continued growth in food intake is largely counterbalanced by a cut in 375.0 373.4 363.9 365.6 361.9 365.0
non-food uses. 712.3 711.8 700.7 704.7 691.1 696.0
Trade in 2022 and 2023 predicted to remain on an expansionary trend, 463.4 465.1 435.2 442.7 432.7 439.4

although reduced import demand from the Far East to decelerate 521.0 522.0 510.6 518.4 509.6 514.8

M I L L I O N
growth. 369.5 374.3 355.2 361.8 355.9 360.9

Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) seen at their second highest on record, as 53.1 53.9 52.6 54.3 50.6 51.2
expected drawdowns, notably in Brazil, Myanmar and Thailand, are 48.2 49.4 47.4 48.3 46.0 46.2
mostly offset by accumulations in China and India.
192.4 191.6 190.1 186.3 181.6 181.2
I N
91.8 90.4 77.1 77.3 72.2 73.5

FAO-AMIS USDA IGC  

SOYBEAN 2022/23 production could rise to a record high, mainly
Soybean

2021/22 2022/23 2021/22 2022/23 2020/21 2021/22

tied to a sharp rebound in productivity levels in Argentina, Brazil and est f'cast est f'cast est f'cast
Paraguay, as well as area expansions in China and the US. 2 Jun 12 May 19 May
348.8 390.4 349.4 394.7 368.5 348.6
Stocks Trade Utiliz. Supply Prod.

Utilization in 2022/23 to recover moderately from an exceptional

T O N N E S

contraction estimated for 2021/22, underpinned by a steady 332.4 371.0 333.0 377.2 348.9 332.2
consumption growth in China and uptake recoveries in South American 399.6 430.2 449.3 479.9 421.7 403.8
countries. 359.7 391.7 401.7 431.7 371.9 356.0

Trade in 2022/23 (Oct/Sep) likely to rebound markedly, largely driven by 365.9 377.8 362.9 377.4 366.5 358.4
M I L L I O N

a forecasted import recovery in China, while major South American 253.1 261.3 254.2 261.8 253.2 247.3
exporters are expected to regain market shares.
155.2 166.7 155.6 170.0 160.2 154.3
Stocks (2022/23 carry-out) to replenish from multi-year lows estimated 63.2 67.5 63.6 71.0 65.2 62.3
for 2021/22, although the global stocks-to-use ratio would remain
39.8 51.0 85.2 99.6 55.2 45.4
below the 5-year average.
I N

20.8 30.0 54.5 68.0 23.7 16.7

+i World Balances
Data shown in the second rows refer to world aggregates without China; world trade data refer to exports; and world trade without China excludes exports to China.
To review and compare data, by country and commodity, across three main sources, go to https://app.amis-outlook.org/#/market-database/compare-sources
Estimates and forecasts may differ across sources for many reasons, including different methodologies. For more information see Explanatory notes on the last
page of this report.