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CAQ PLQ PQ QS PCQ Vert Ind
% 40.7 17.6 8.0 14.5 16.6 1.3 -
sièges 92 21 1 10 1 0 0
Chances de gagner* 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Chances d'une majorité 100.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Probabilités de remporter la circonscription
(basées sur 10000 simulations)
CAQ PLQ PQ QS PCQ Vert Ind CAQ PLQ PQ QS PCQ Vert Ind
Abitibi-Est 51.1% 10.2% 6.9% 15.6% 14.7% 1.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Abitibi-Ouest 44.3% 3.0% 17.6% 17.5% 16.8% 0.9% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Acadie 21.4% 47.6% 0.4% 12.1% 16.1% 2.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Anjou–Louis-Riel 34.5% 32.9% 4.4% 12.9% 13.7% 1.5% 54% 46% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Argenteuil 48.5% 12.6% 9.7% 11.2% 16.5% 1.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Arthabaska 67.9% 2.8% 0.0% 11.7% 16.4% 1.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauce-Nord 50.7% 5.2% 0.2% 5.4% 38.4% 0.1% 95% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0%
Beauce-Sud 53.3% 9.9% 0.2% 4.5% 31.0% 1.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Beauharnois 54.4% 7.2% 9.7% 13.7% 14.9% 0.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bellechasse 44.1% 15.4% 0.2% 6.1% 34.2% 0.1% 91% 0% 0% 0% 9% 0%
Berthier 54.3% 0.0% 13.7% 15.5% 14.9% 1.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bertrand 50.0% 4.9% 9.7% 18.2% 15.6% 1.6% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Blainville 54.2% 13.1% 3.6% 13.3% 13.5% 2.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bonaventure 25.1% 18.6% 22.4% 16.4% 16.2% 1.3% 47% 8% 39% 4% 2% 0%
Borduas 56.2% 3.0% 8.2% 15.5% 15.4% 1.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourassa-Sauvé 29.0% 40.3% 1.5% 12.4% 15.4% 1.4% 5% 95% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Bourget 33.8% 13.4% 12.8% 24.0% 14.0% 1.9% 92% 0% 0% 8% 0% 0%
Brome-Missisquoi 51.2% 15.0% 0.6% 16.8% 14.3% 2.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chambly 56.6% 6.5% 6.3% 14.7% 14.4% 1.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Champlain 58.7% 9.7% 1.5% 12.3% 16.1% 1.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chapleau 46.5% 22.7% 0.0% 15.1% 15.6% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Charlesbourg 44.4% 11.5% 2.8% 12.7% 28.6% 0.1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré 47.8% 12.5% 7.0% 12.8% 19.7% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Châteauguay 42.6% 27.3% 2.7% 10.9% 15.0% 1.5% 98% 2% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chauveau 37.8% 10.7% 1.0% 8.8% 40.5% 1.2% 36% 0% 0% 0% 64% 0%
Chicoutimi 47.6% 11.2% 10.8% 12.7% 16.2% 1.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chomedey 31.1% 45.2% 0.4% 4.8% 17.1% 1.4% 3% 97% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Chutes-de-la-Chaudière 48.6% 3.3% 1.1% 10.0% 36.8% 0.1% 95% 0% 0% 0% 5% 0%
Côte-du-Sud 49.4% 12.0% 0.2% 9.4% 28.9% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
D'Arcy-McGee 10.1% 64.3% 0.4% 4.9% 17.6% 2.8% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Deux-Montagnes 54.7% 7.8% 7.6% 13.0% 15.0% 1.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Drummond–Bois-Francs 63.0% 4.4% 1.9% 14.3% 16.3% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Dubuc 48.7% 13.8% 8.1% 11.9% 17.4% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Duplessis 42.8% 9.7% 17.9% 12.5% 17.0% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Fabre 38.1% 31.2% 3.6% 8.9% 15.9% 2.3% 79% 21% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gaspé 27.6% 25.3% 17.5% 14.2% 15.3% 0.1% 56% 39% 4% 0% 0% 0%
Gatineau 47.8% 20.7% 0.0% 12.1% 16.1% 3.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Gouin 14.0% 5.7% 4.5% 59.2% 13.5% 3.1% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Granby 68.5% 2.2% 0.0% 13.2% 15.0% 1.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Groulx 47.4% 14.6% 5.3% 15.9% 14.9% 1.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Hochelaga-Maisonneuve 17.8% 4.9% 11.0% 51.7% 14.7% 0.0% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Hull 33.9% 25.0% 2.7% 18.7% 16.3% 3.4% 87% 12% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Huntingdon 44.5% 25.6% 0.8% 12.1% 15.7% 1.3% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Iberville 55.6% 3.8% 5.4% 17.1% 16.4% 1.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Îles-de-la-Madeleine 16.7% 31.4% 21.8% 14.2% 15.7% 0.1% 1% 88% 12% 0% 0% 0%
Jacques-Cartier 13.1% 62.4% 0.4% 2.0% 15.8% 6.4% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Lesage 34.4% 7.7% 1.2% 36.2% 19.6% 0.9% 40% 0% 0% 60% 0% 0%
Jeanne-Mance–Viger 20.1% 57.4% 0.4% 5.9% 14.6% 1.6% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Jean-Talon 37.8% 19.5% 3.0% 21.3% 16.7% 1.7% 98% 1% 0% 2% 0% 0%
Johnson 60.2% 2.6% 2.3% 17.4% 15.9% 1.6% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Joliette 45.3% 0.0% 27.5% 10.4% 15.7% 1.2% 98% 0% 2% 0% 0% 0%
Jonquière 43.6% 1.6% 29.6% 7.3% 17.2% 0.7% 92% 0% 8% 0% 0% 0%
Labelle 46.1% 2.6% 18.3% 15.8% 16.2% 1.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lac-Saint-Jean 48.8% 4.2% 15.8% 15.1% 16.1% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
LaFontaine 26.5% 51.2% 0.4% 6.7% 15.2% 0.0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Peltrie 53.7% 6.0% 0.9% 8.9% 29.1% 1.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
La Pinière 34.3% 40.7% 0.4% 8.1% 15.1% 1.4% 17% 83% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laporte 34.0% 29.4% 3.4% 15.6% 15.1% 2.5% 70% 29% 0% 1% 0% 0%
La Prairie 49.2% 18.0% 5.1% 11.2% 14.8% 1.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
L'Assomption 62.9% 2.4% 4.2% 15.1% 14.0% 1.5% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laurier-Dorion 13.0% 23.4% 0.4% 47.1% 14.8% 1.4% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Laval-des-Rapides 36.8% 25.8% 5.0% 15.6% 15.0% 1.9% 93% 7% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Laviolette–Saint-Maurice 52.9% 11.9% 4.1% 14.7% 16.3% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Les Plaines 59.6% 0.0% 9.8% 13.6% 15.7% 1.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lévis 51.8% 4.0% 1.8% 10.8% 29.9% 1.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Lotbinière-Frontenac 49.5% 10.6% 0.0% 8.1% 30.4% 1.3% 99% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Louis-Hébert 44.3% 16.0% 3.4% 10.6% 24.4% 1.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marguerite-Bourgeoys 28.5% 46.7% 0.4% 8.8% 13.6% 2.0% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Marie-Victorin 36.1% 10.0% 20.3% 17.4% 14.3% 1.9% 96% 0% 3% 1% 0% 0%
Marquette 33.7% 36.6% 0.4% 9.6% 15.9% 3.8% 32% 68% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Maskinongé 49.8% 18.8% 2.1% 11.6% 16.0% 1.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Masson 59.3% 5.2% 7.9% 11.6% 14.3% 1.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Matane-Matapédia 21.1% 3.4% 50.2% 6.1% 18.1% 1.1% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0%
Maurice-Richard 25.2% 24.0% 7.7% 27.6% 14.0% 1.5% 27% 23% 0% 50% 0% 0%
Mégantic 54.6% 10.9% 1.9% 15.5% 14.3% 2.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mercier 12.3% 12.0% 2.6% 55.4% 14.2% 3.5% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Mille-Îles 37.8% 30.0% 4.7% 11.1% 13.8% 2.5% 83% 17% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Mirabel 61.1% 3.3% 6.8% 13.2% 14.3% 1.3% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montarville 47.7% 18.6% 5.5% 14.4% 13.8% 0.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Montmorency 46.4% 7.9% 2.0% 12.3% 30.2% 1.1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 1% 0%
Mont-Royal–Outremont 18.3% 45.5% 2.4% 14.0% 15.6% 4.1% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nelligan 21.2% 56.3% 0.4% 3.2% 16.3% 2.6% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Nicolet-Bécancour 62.6% 4.0% 4.1% 11.7% 16.4% 1.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Notre-Dame-de-Grâce 12.2% 55.8% 0.4% 9.9% 15.2% 6.5% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Orford 46.9% 15.8% 1.8% 17.4% 15.5% 2.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Papineau 54.0% 14.1% 0.5% 14.5% 15.6% 1.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pointe-aux-Trembles 47.1% 7.2% 17.6% 13.8% 14.3% 0.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Pontiac 26.5% 43.1% 0.0% 10.0% 17.4% 3.1% 1% 99% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Portneuf 48.2% 9.1% 0.0% 9.8% 32.9% 0.1% 98% 0% 0% 0% 2% 0%
Prévost 55.6% 4.4% 10.4% 13.8% 15.7% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
René-Lévesque 43.9% 4.6% 24.3% 10.4% 16.8% 0.1% 99% 0% 1% 0% 0% 0%
Repentigny 56.3% 8.0% 7.3% 13.2% 14.5% 0.7% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richelieu 58.0% 2.8% 9.3% 13.0% 15.8% 1.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Richmond 47.2% 11.1% 5.6% 18.8% 16.0% 1.3% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Rimouski 34.7% 4.2% 26.1% 18.8% 15.9% 0.4% 78% 0% 22% 0% 0% 0%
Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata 46.2% 24.0% 3.8% 10.4% 15.5% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Robert-Baldwin 15.1% 64.2% 0.4% 2.0% 16.2% 2.1% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Roberval 39.2% 28.1% 6.5% 9.6% 16.5% 0.1% 92% 8% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rosemont 21.2% 11.6% 14.8% 36.4% 15.0% 1.1% 1% 0% 0% 98% 0% 0%
Rousseau 60.7% 0.0% 11.4% 12.4% 15.4% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue37.4% 7.7% 5.9% 32.5% 15.4% 1.1% 74% 0% 0% 26% 0% 0%
Saint-François 42.2% 14.5% 4.5% 22.8% 14.6% 1.5% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne 24.0% 32.5% 2.2% 23.1% 15.2% 3.0% 8% 88% 0% 4% 0% 0%
Saint-Hyacinthe 59.5% 5.5% 4.3% 16.3% 14.4% 0.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jean 49.0% 3.3% 15.5% 14.7% 16.1% 1.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Jérôme 51.6% 3.5% 13.8% 14.7% 15.0% 1.4% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Saint-Laurent 19.5% 54.4% 0.4% 6.5% 16.6% 2.6% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sainte-Marie–Saint-Jacques 15.1% 15.1% 3.8% 48.8% 14.0% 3.2% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Sainte-Rose 42.6% 24.0% 4.3% 12.1% 14.8% 2.2% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sanguinet 50.5% 8.4% 11.7% 13.2% 15.1% 1.1% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Sherbrooke 30.3% 15.8% 3.4% 35.0% 14.6% 0.9% 24% 0% 0% 76% 0% 0%
Soulanges 45.3% 27.7% 1.3% 9.7% 14.5% 1.5% 99% 1% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taillon 40.8% 11.4% 14.4% 16.7% 14.8% 1.8% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Taschereau 23.8% 8.2% 7.9% 49.0% 9.7% 1.4% 0% 0% 0% 100% 0% 0%
Terrebonne 50.8% 6.7% 15.4% 11.4% 14.8% 0.9% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Trois-Rivières 48.0% 13.8% 3.9% 16.7% 16.1% 1.5% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Ungava 34.9% 16.7% 11.8% 17.0% 17.6% 2.0% 99% 0% 0% 1% 0% 0%
Vachon 50.4% 15.4% 6.1% 12.9% 15.1% 0.0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Vanier-Les Rivières 40.7% 14.5% 1.6% 11.4% 30.4% 1.4% 93% 0% 0% 0% 7% 0%
Vaudreuil 38.7% 34.0% 1.1% 8.2% 15.6% 2.4% 70% 30% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verchères 45.8% 3.4% 20.4% 13.8% 15.3% 1.2% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Verdun 25.8% 29.9% 3.0% 23.2% 14.6% 3.5% 22% 70% 0% 9% 0% 0%
Viau 20.6% 40.5% 0.4% 23.4% 15.1% 0.0% 0% 97% 0% 3% 0% 0%
Vimont 40.7% 30.5% 2.8% 9.7% 14.7% 1.7% 90% 10% 0% 0% 0% 0%
Westmount–Saint-Louis 13.8% 58.9% 0.4% 8.2% 15.7% 3.0% 0% 100% 0% 0% 0% 0%

*gagner l'élection=remporter le plus de sièges

Luttes serrées en gris (victoires par moins de 5 pts)