Friday, September 2, 2022 REP-108

KSE-100: Consolidating below 21-SMA

AKD SECURITIES LIMITED
Market View — Technical
The index opened on a positive note and faced a volatile session. The local bourse posted an intraday high of 316pts, a low of 24pts and con-
cluded with a gain of ↑109pts to settle at 42,460pts. The volumes clocked in the last trading session were comparatively higher than the
previous trading session. The index is consolidating below 21-SMA (Simple Moving Average) on daily chart. The histogram of MACD is in the
TECHNICAL VIEW

negative trajectory since it is trading below its signal line. The MACD crossed below its signal line 3 trading sessions ago.
The chart formation depicts that the index may find initial support near 42,000. A break below mentioned support can result into further
weakness towards 41,800 and 41,500pts level. Alternatively, the index can face resistance near 42,600pts initially and then head towards
42,900 and 43,300 area. It is recommended to accumulate positions on weakness with risk defined below support zone.

KSE100 (42,490.48, 42,667.53, 42,375.50, 42,460.08, +108.930) 47500

47000
46500
46000
45500
45000
44500
0.0% 44000
43500

23.6% 43000
AKD Securities Limited

42500
38.2%
42000
50.0%
41500
61.8%
41000
40500
40000
100.0% 39500
39000
Volum e (153,353,792) 30000
20000
10000
x10000

Relative Strength Index (51.6782)

50

4 11 18 25 9 16 23 30 6 13 20 27 4 13 18 25 1 10 15 22 29 5 12
April May June July Augus t Septem ber

Support Level 1 Support Level 2 Support Level 3

41,778

50-SMA
42,000 41,800 41,500

Resistance Level 1 Resistance Level 2 Resistance Level 3

42,720 43,719

100-SMA 200-SMA
42,600 42,900 43,300

Buy on Weakness calls

RSI and Stochastic Indicators
Scrips Buy Target Stop Pivot Upper Lower
range Loss Point lock lock 100 100
80
PAEL 16.30 17.40 16.00 16.64 17.92 15.42 80
60
ISL 60.00 62.40 59.30 60.48 64.64 55.62 40
60
20
ASL 11.10 12.00 10.80 11.29 12.35 10.35
0 40
DGKC 60.70 63.50 58.70 61.76 66.47 57.19 PAEL ISL ASL DGKC PRL

PRL 18.80 19.60 18.40 19.09 20.58 17.70 Stochastic RSI (RHS)

Sell on Strength calls

RSI and Stochastic Indicators
Scrips Sell Target Stop Pivot Upper Lower
range Loss Point lock lock 40
90
30
FFL 7.00 6.60 7.30 6.96 7.93 5.93
70
20
PIBTL 5.90 5.50 6.10 5.83 6.80 4.80
10 50
PSO 171.80 166.70 174.20 170.74 182.99 157.45
0 30
PPL 69.60 67.40 70.20 69.27 74.18 63.83 FFL PIBTL PSO PPL IMAGE
Stochastic RSI (RHS)
IMAGE 14.70 13.70 15.00 14.53 15.59 13.41

Kamal Ahmed
kamal.ahmed@akdsl.com 111-253-111 EXT:644
AKD Securities Limited
602, Continental Trade Centre Clifton Block 8, Karachi, Pakistan.
research@akdsl.com
AKD RESEARCH

Synopsis
Symbol Closing Change Change Trading Support Resistance Stoploss
(PKR) % Points Stance S1 S2 S3 PIVOT R1 R2 R3 Below Above
Banks Sector
MCB 120.41 -0.01% -0.01 Sell 119.70 119.00 117.97 120.73 121.43 122.46 123.16 119.00 122.46
HBL 90.25 -0.45% -0.41 Sell 89.61 88.96 88.18 90.39 91.04 91.82 92.47 88.96 91.82
UBL 116.89 0.15% 0.18 Buy 115.44 114.00 112.99 116.45 117.89 118.90 120.34 114.00 118.90
MEBL 121.17 -0.19% -0.23 Sell 119.88 118.59 116.78 121.69 122.98 124.79 126.08 118.59 124.79
ABL 67.95 2.78% 1.84 Buy 66.71 65.46 64.82 67.35 68.60 69.24 70.49 65.46 69.24
NBP 28.60 -0.52% -0.15 Sell 27.87 27.14 26.15 28.86 29.59 30.58 31.31 27.14 30.58
BAHL 56.09 0.29% 0.16 Sell 55.80 55.50 55.08 56.22 56.52 56.94 57.24 55.50 56.94
BAFL 32.30 0.16% 0.05 Sell 32.16 32.03 31.86 32.33 32.46 32.63 32.76 32.03 32.63
HMB 38.49 2.48% 0.93 Buy 37.56 36.64 36.17 38.03 38.95 39.42 40.34 36.64 39.42
BOP 5.89 2.08% 0.12 Buy 5.81 5.73 5.67 5.87 5.95 6.01 6.09 5.73 6.01
BIPL 11.93 0.00% 0.00 Sell 11.68 11.42 11.07 12.03 12.29 12.64 12.90 11.42 12.64
Oil & Gas Exploration
OGDC 81.81 -0.47% -0.39 Sell 81.37 80.94 80.12 82.19 82.62 83.44 83.87 80.94 83.44
PPL 69.00 -0.49% -0.34 Sell 68.53 68.07 67.33 69.27 69.73 70.47 70.93 68.07 70.47
MARI 1,705.83 1.05% 17.77 Buy 1,693.22 1,680.61 1,670.22 1,703.61 1,716.22 1,726.61 1,739.22 1,680.61 1,726.61
POL 418.58 -0.01% -0.03 Sell 415.89 413.19 408.39 420.69 423.39 428.19 430.89 413.19 428.19
Fertilizer
ENGRO 238.29 -0.03% -0.07 Sell 237.48 236.66 235.33 238.81 239.63 240.96 241.78 236.66 240.96
FFC 104.09 0.09% 0.09 Buy 103.65 103.20 102.91 103.94 104.39 104.68 105.13 103.20 104.68
EFERT 83.20 -1.06% -0.89 Sell 82.52 81.85 80.68 83.69 84.36 85.53 86.20 81.85 85.53
FATIMA 36.64 -0.84% -0.31 Sell 36.34 36.03 35.47 36.90 37.21 37.77 38.08 36.03 37.77
FFBL 20.65 0.24% 0.05 Sell 20.47 20.30 20.04 20.73 20.90 21.16 21.33 20.30 21.16
Cement
LUCK 523.37 1.29% 6.65 Buy 516.89 510.41 504.10 523.20 529.68 535.99 542.47 510.41 535.99
DGKC 61.83 2.86% 1.72 Buy 60.57 59.31 58.12 61.76 63.02 64.21 65.47 59.31 64.21
MLCF 28.89 0.94% 0.27 Buy 28.37 27.84 27.13 29.08 29.61 30.32 30.85 27.84 30.32
KOHC 157.65 6.45% 9.55 Buy 152.03 146.42 142.83 155.62 161.23 164.82 170.43 146.42 164.82
FCCL 15.46 2.93% 0.44 Buy 15.04 14.63 14.17 15.50 15.91 16.37 16.78 14.63 16.37
CHCC 108.99 6.76% 6.90 Buy 104.41 99.84 97.17 107.08 111.65 114.32 118.89 99.84 114.32
PIOC 70.91 3.59% 2.46 Buy 69.13 67.35 65.70 70.78 72.56 74.21 75.99 67.35 74.21
ACPL 90.79 4.63% 4.02 Buy 88.20 85.60 83.71 90.09 92.69 94.58 97.18 85.60 94.58
Food & Personal Care Products
FCEPL 71.91 -0.06% -0.04 Sell 70.97 70.04 69.07 71.94 72.87 73.84 74.77 70.04 73.84
NATF 159.23 2.11% 3.29 Buy 157.32 155.41 153.82 158.91 160.82 162.41 164.32 155.41 162.41
Chemicals
EPCL 61.30 -1.56% -0.97 Sell 60.41 59.53 58.04 61.90 62.78 64.27 65.15 59.53 64.27
LOTCHEM 28.86 -0.69% -0.20 Sell 28.61 28.35 27.91 29.05 29.31 29.75 30.01 28.35 29.75
DOL 22.69 -1.13% -0.26 Sell 22.38 22.06 21.63 22.81 23.13 23.56 23.88 22.06 23.56
SPL 16.33 -1.03% -0.17 Buy 16.27 16.22 16.18 16.31 16.36 16.40 16.45 16.22 16.40
Automobile Assemblers
INDU 980.22 0.04% 0.40 Sell 973.81 967.41 954.81 986.41 992.81 1,005.41 1,011.81 967.41 1,005.41
MTL 839.24 0.61% 5.08 Sell 835.16 831.08 825.16 841.08 845.16 851.08 855.16 831.08 851.08
HCAR 176.31 -0.60% -1.07 Sell 173.95 171.59 168.18 177.36 179.72 183.13 185.49 171.59 183.13
PSMC 177.61 -3.72% -6.87 Sell 172.84 168.08 160.55 180.37 185.13 192.66 197.42 168.08 192.66
Textiles
NML 71.73 -1.55% -1.13 Sell 70.88 70.02 68.53 72.37 73.23 74.72 75.58 70.02 74.72
Power Generation & Distribution
HUBC 66.01 -0.32% -0.21 Sell 65.66 65.30 64.71 66.25 66.61 67.20 67.56 65.30 67.20
NPL 20.67 0.34% 0.07 Sell 20.48 20.29 20.08 20.69 20.88 21.09 21.28 20.29 21.09
PKGP 17.09 -1.50% -0.26 Sell 17.00 16.91 16.81 17.10 17.19 17.29 17.38 16.91 17.29
NCPL 14.30 -1.45% -0.21 Sell 14.12 13.93 13.62 14.43 14.62 14.93 15.12 13.93 14.93
LPL 12.15 0.00% 0.00 Sell 12.09 12.02 11.92 12.19 12.26 12.36 12.43 12.02 12.36
Oil & Gas Marketing
PSO 170.22 -0.05% -0.09 Sell 169.58 168.94 167.78 170.74 171.38 172.54 173.18 168.94 172.54
APL 388.57 -0.66% -2.57 Sell 386.75 384.92 381.85 389.82 391.65 394.72 396.55 384.92 394.72
Technology & Communication
SYS 402.02 1.08% 4.31 Sell 397.08 392.14 386.28 402.94 407.88 413.74 418.68 392.14 413.74
Engineering
ISL 60.13 -0.73% -0.44 Buy 59.65 59.18 58.35 60.48 60.95 61.78 62.25 59.18 61.78
MUGHAL 67.51 -1.40% -0.96 Sell 66.57 65.64 64.22 67.99 68.92 70.34 71.27 65.64 70.34
ASTL 27.97 -1.62% -0.46 Sell 27.61 27.25 26.73 28.13 28.49 29.01 29.37 27.25 29.01
ASL 11.35 2.07% 0.23 Buy 11.18 11.01 10.90 11.29 11.46 11.57 11.74 11.01 11.57
Source: PSX & AKD Research

2
AKD RESEARCH
GLOSSARY OF TERMS
Support: Support is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from buyers. The buying support will prevent the stock from
falling further.

Resistance: Resistance is the level at which the stock is likely to see increased interest from sellers. The selling pressure will preven t the
stock from rising further.

RSI: The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is a momentum oscillator that ranges from 0 to 100. It compares the extent of the stock's recent price
movements by evaluating recent gains and losses. Stocks with RSI above 70 could be considered overbought, and below 30 could be consid-
ered oversold. Generally, if the RSI falls below 70, it is a bearish signal. Conversely, if the RSI of a stock rises above 30 it is considered bullish.
The RSI used is of 14 days.

Bollinger Bands: A Bollinger Band, developed by famous technical trader John Bollinger, is plotted two standard deviations away from a sim-
ple moving average. BB highly popular technical analysis technique. Many traders believe the closer the prices move to the upper band, the
more overbought the market, and the closer the prices move to the lower band, the more oversold the market.

MACD: MACD shows the relationship between a longer period moving average and a short period Moving average of a stock’s price. Gener-
ally, the 26-day exponential moving average (EMA) and the 12-day EMA are used to calculate MACD.

EMA: Exponential moving average (EMA) is the weighted average of the prices of a given security where higher weights are given to recent
data points. EMA is used to analyze the trend of a stock.

SMA: A simple moving average (SMA) is the average of the closing price of a security for a given period.
The parabolic SAR: is a technical indicator used to determine the price direction of an asset, as well as draw attention to when the price di-
rection is changing. Sometimes known as the "stop and reversal system," the parabolic SAR was developed by J. Welles Wilder Jr., creator of
the relative strength index (RSI).

DISCLAIMER SECTION
Neither the information nor any opinion expressed herein constitutes an offer or a solicitation of an offer to transact in any securities or oth-
er financial instrument and is for the personal information of the recipient containing general information only. AKD Securities Limited
(hereinafter referred as AKDS) is not soliciting any action based upon it. This report is not intended to provide personal investment advice nor
does it provide individually tailored investment advice. This report does not take into account the specific investment objectives, financial
situation/financial circumstances and the particular needs of any specific person. Investors are strongly urged to individually seek financial
advice regarding the appropriateness of investing in financial instruments and implementing investment strategies discussed or recommend-
ed in this report and should understand that statements regarding future prospects may not be realized. AKDS recommends that investors
independently evaluate particular investments and strategies and it encourages investors to seek the advice of a financial advisor.

The appropriateness of a particular investment or strategy will depend on an investor's individual circumstances and objectives. The securi-
ties or strategies discussed in this report may not be suitable for all investors, and certain investors may not be eligible to purchase or partici-
pate in some or all of them and therefore should not be solely relied upon by the investors and AKDS shall not be held liable for any loss
suffered by the investors as a result of such reliance.

Reports prepared by AKDS research personnel are based on public information. AKDS makes every effort to use reliable, comprehensive in-
formation, but we make no representation that it is accurate or complete. Facts and views presented in this report have not been reviewed
by and may not reflect information known to professionals in other business areas of AKDS including investment banking personnel. AKDS
has established information barriers between certain business groups maintaining complete independence of this research report.

This report has been prepared independently of any issuer of securities mentioned herein and not in connection with any proposed offering
of securities or as agent of any issuer of any securities. Neither AKDS, nor any of its affiliates or their research analysts have any authority
whatsoever to make any representation or warranty on behalf of the issuer(s). AKDS Research Policy prohibits research personnel from dis-
closing a recommendation, investment rating, or investment thesis for review by an issuer prior to the publication of a research report con-
taining such rating, recommendation or investment thesis.

We have taken all reasonable care to ensure that the information contained herein is accurate, up to date, and complies with all prevailing
Pakistani legislations. However, no liability can be accepted for any errors or omissions, or for any loss resulting from the use of the infor-
mation provided as any data and research material provided ahead of an investment decision are for information purposes only. We shall not
be liable for any errors in the provision of this information, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. We reserve the right to amend, alter,
or withdraw any of the information contained in these pages at any time and without notice. No liability is accepted for such changes.

Stock Ratings
Investors should carefully read the definitions of all ratings used in each research report. In addition, research reports contain information
carrying the analyst's view and investors should carefully read the entire research report and not infer its contents from the rating ascribed
by the analyst. In any case, ratings or research should not be used or relied upon as investment advice. An investor's decision to buy, sell or
hold a stock should depend on individual circumstances and other considerations. AKDS uses a three tier rating system: i) Buy, ii) Neutral and
iii) Sell with total returns (capital upside + dividend yield) benchmarked against the expected one year forward floating (variable) risk free
rate (10yr PIB) plus risk premium.

Valuation Methodology
To arrive at our period end target prices, AKDS uses
New Rating Definitions
Different valuation techniques (where applicable) including:
 Discounted Cash Flow (DCF, DDM) Buy >21.5% expected total revenue (Rf 15.5% +Rp 6%)
 Relative Valuation (P/E, P/B, P/S etc.) Neutral > 15.5% to < 21.5% expected total return
 Equity & Asset return based methodologies (EVA, Residual In- Sell < 15.5% expected total return (Rf: 15.5%)
come etc.)

3
AKD RESEARCH
Analyst Certification of Independence
The analysts hereby certify that their views about the companies and their securities discussed in this report are accurately expressed and
that they have not received and will not receive direct or indirect compensation in exchange for expressing specific recommendations or
views in this report.
The research analysts, strategists or research associates principally having received compensation responsible for the preparation of this
AKDS research report based upon various factors including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors
and firm revenues.

Disclosure of Interest Area

AKDS and the authoring analyst do not have any interest in any companies recommended in this research report irrespective of the fact that
AKD Securities Limited may have, within the last three years, served as manager or co-manager of a public offering of securities for, or cur-
rently may make a primary market in issues of, any or all of the entities mentioned in this report or may be providing, or have provided with-
in the previous 12 months, significant advice or investment services in relation to the investment concerned or a related investment.

Regional Disclosures (Outside Pakistan)

The information provided in this report and the report itself is not intended for distribution to, or use by, any person or entity in any jurisdic-
tion or country where such distribution or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject AKDS or its affiliates to any
registration or licensing requirements within such jurisdiction or country.
Furthermore, all copyrights, patents, intellectual and other property in the information contained in this report are held by AKDS. No rights of
any kind are licensed or assigned or shall otherwise pass to persons accessing this information. You may print copies of the report or infor-
mation contained within herein for your own private non-commercial use only, provided that you do not change any copyright, trade mark or
other proprietary notices. All other copying, reproducing, trans-mitting, distributing or displaying of material in this report (by any means and
in whole or in part) is prohibited.
For the United States

The securities referred to in this Report may not be eligible for sale in some jurisdictions. This Report is not intended for, and must not be
distributed to private customers in the UK, the US or any other part of the world. This report is intended only for, and may be distributed only
to, accredited investors, expert investors or institutional investors in Pakistan who may contact AKD Securities Limited’s Head Office, 6th
Floor, Continental Trade Centre, Clifton Block 8, Karachi.