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Background Briefing: South China Sea: Third Cable Cutting Incident? Carlyle A. Thayer July 1, 2011

[client1namedeleted] There was another cable cutting incident that took place yesterday morning (June 30)buttheVietnameseshipschasedthe'intruders'away.Canyouaddanythingto thisreport? ANSWER:Ihaveheardthesamereportfromindependentsources.Iamnotsureif this was an attempted cable cutting incident or the real thing. But it is clear that afterthevisitbyVietnams SpecialEnvoyto Beijing,Vietnam willbeplayingthings lowkey.PartySecretaryGeneralNguyenPhuTrongwillvisitChinalaterintheyear; thistripwasarrangedbeforetheBinhMinhIIincident.Thepartyssecondplenumis abouttomeet. [client2namedeleted] YesterdayareportwasreceivedthatChinaforthethirdtimetriedtocutthecables of Vietnams exploration ship. Yesterday evening, Vietnamese authorities held a meetingandtheydecidednottomakethiscasepublic.WhydoyouthinkVietnam haschosennottopublicizethisincident? ANSWER:VietnammustcontinuetopursuediplomacywithChina.Afterthevisitof theVietnamsSpecialEnvoytoBeijing,Vietnamhasdecidedtoplayalowkeyrolein itsrelationswithChina.InthisincidentVietnameseescortsapparentlychasedoffthe Chinese vessels involved. This cat and mouse game may well continue but todays successfuldefenceoftheoilexplorationshipmaycauseChinatorethinkitstactics.I do not think keeping quiet on this incident is a sign of surrendering to China so muchaswisediplomacy.VietnamcannowconfronttheChineseinprivateandask themtoexplainthisincidentwhichviolatesthespiritandletteroftherecentjoint press release agreed to by their respective deputy foreign ministers. News of this incidentwillbecomepublicandreinforcetheimagethatChinaisactingaggressively. VietnammustavoidrespondingtoChineseactionsinawaythatmakesitappearthe dispute is a bilateral one between China and Vietnam. In other words, Vietnam cannotallowitselftobeperceivedaspartoftheproblem;itisthevictim.