Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50

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Journal of Asian Earth Sciences

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Full length Article

The recent deglaciation of Kolahoi valley in Kashmir Himalaya, India in

response to the changing climate
Irfan Rashid, Shakil Ahmad Romshoo ⇑, Tariq Abdullah
Department of Earth Sciences, University of Kashmir, Hazratbal, Srinagar, Jammu and Kashmir 190006, India

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: In the present study, the retreat of Kolahoi glacier was mapped from the satellite observations and his-
Received 13 March 2016 torical maps supplemented by the extensive field observations to understand the recent deglaciation of
Received in revised form 26 January 2017 the Kolahoi valley, Kashmir Himalaya, India. The glacier has retreated by 2.85 km during the last
Accepted 2 February 2017
157 years from 1857 to 2014 with an average retreat of about 18.2 m year
1; however, the glacier snout
Available online 4 February 2017
has shown higher recession during the last decade. The geomorphological evidence reveals glaciation of
the Kolahoi valley during the Quaternary. These evidences include glacial till at Pahalgam and Aru besides
Keywords:
terminal and lateral moraines at Lidderwat, Satlanjan and Kolahoi Gunj in the Kolahoi valley. The glacier
Deglaciation
Glacial landforms
has shrunk by 2.81 km2 during the last 51 years (1962–2013) losing an ice volume of 0.30 km3. The
Kolahoi glacier observed glacier changes were correlated with the climate data from PMIP3-CMIP5 models. The temper-
Climate change atures are predicted to increase almost ten times more than that observed during the Last Glacial
Climate projections Maximum (LGM). The future temperature is predicted to rise between 0.18 °C and 0.61 °C per decade
under RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 respectively. The projected rise in the temperature, if realized, will have an
adverse effect on the glaciers and would, in all likelihood, adversely affect the water availability for var-
ious sectors in the region.
Ó 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction
The indicators of climate change are very evident over Himalaya
(Beniston, 2003; Kang et al., 2010; Romshoo et al., 2011; Wang and
Chen, 2014) and these changes have exacerbated glacier recession
(Akhtar et al., 2008; Immerzeel et al., 2010; Romshoo et al., 2015).
It, therefore, becomes imperative to understand the magnitude of
the climatic changes and how these changes influence the cryo-
spheric and hydrological processes in the region. Recent studies
have demonstrated that the glacier cover in the Kashmir Himalaya,
India is declining at an increasing rate compared to other parts of
the Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH) (Kääb et al., 2012; Murtaza and
Romshoo, 2016). Hence, it is very obvious that the Himalaya may
lose the glacier cover in response to the climate change which will
have serious impacts on the regional hydrology (Barnett et al.,
2005; Cogley, 2011; Nepal et al., 2014). However, some studies
suggest that Himalayan glaciers, especially in the Karakorum
region, are stable (Bahuguna et al., 2014; Ganjoo and Koul, 2013;
Raina, 2009). The past glaciological, climatological and hydrologi-
cal studies in the Himalaya have focused, on spatio-temporal
⇑ Corresponding author.
E-mail address: shakilrom@kashmiruniversity.ac.in (S.A. Romshoo).
changes in glacial extents (Frey et al., 2012; Kääb et al., 2014), mass
balance (Berthier et al., 2007; Brahmbhatt et al., 2012), snow cover
dynamics (Hall, 2012; Rittger et al., 2013), hydrological modelling
(Naz et al., 2014; Nepal et al., 2014), climate change impacts (Hock,
2014; Sorg et al., 2012) and anthropogenic activities (Ginot et al.,
2014; Kaspari et al., 2014; Ming et al., 2009). Despite the vulnera-
bility of Kashmir Himalayan glaciers to the environmental changes,
very few glaciological studies have been carried out to understand
the glacier recession in the region.
Mapping the glacio-geomorphological features is vital for
assessing the historical glacier extents, fluctuations and glacial
controls on landscape development in montane systems (Barnard
et al., 2004; Hughes et al., 2005; Kamp et al., 2004; Owen et al.,
2006). These features provide valuable information about the past
glacial extents (Owen et al., 2002; Zawiska et al., 2015). Earlier
efforts to map glaciogeomorphology in the Himalayan region were
mostly restricted to small-scale field surveys that include the nota-
ble studies of Dainelli (1924–1935), Norin (1925), Klute (1930),
Trinkler (1930), De Terra and Paterson (1939) and Holmes and
Street-Perrott (1989). Most of the glaciological studies carried
out so far in Kashmir Himalaya are restricted to mapping and
understanding the short term dynamics of glaciers (Bolch et al.
2012; Romshoo et al., 2015) with a little emphasis on glacial geo-

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2017.02.002
1367-9120/Ó 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50
morphology. As such, the timing and extent of past glacier fluctu-
ations are crudely documented in the region (Lee et al., 2014;
Mitchell et al., 1999; Owen and Dortch, 2014; Sharma and Owen,
1996). The utility of high resolution remote sensing data together
with the field observations for glacio-geomorphological mapping
has been well documented (Sati et al., 2014; Schneevoigt et al.,
2008; Smith and Pain, 2009). Remotely sensed data together with
Digital Elevation Models (DEM) are helpful in mapping geomor-
phological features of deglaciated valleys (Jansson and Glasser,
2005; Rose et al., 2013; Stokes and Clark, 2003).
The climatological studies on Himalayan glaciers indicate a
decrease in the seasonal snowfall possibly as a consequence of
warming observed in the region over the last few decades (Ren
et al., 2006; Wiltshire, 2014), except in the Karakoram range where
the extremely low temperatures are responsible for the stability of
glaciers (Kapnick et al., 2014). One of the major concerns pertain-
ing to the glacier recession in the Kashmir Himalaya is the impact
of changing climate on the streamflows (Bhutiyani et al., 2008;
Immerzeel et al., 2012; Miller et al., 2012; Romshoo, 2012). The
melt waters from the Kashmir Himalayan glaciers are source to
the headwaters of Indus river and support agriculture, tourism
and energy generation, the backbone of the economy downstream
in the basin. It is, therefore, very important to analyse and under-
stand the causes and consequences of the past and future changes
in the alpine cryosphere so that a robust strategy is developed to
sustain and conserve the depleting water resources in the region.
In this study, we mapped the glacial geomorphology of Kolahoi
valley, Kashmir using high resolution remotely sensed data, histor-
ical maps and field observations. We also looked into the past and
future climate regimes over the region; assessed the spatio-
temporal changes of Kolahoi glacier since 1857 and corroborated
Fig. 1. Location map of the study area.
39
the observed glacier changes with the climate data to draw a few
valid inferences about the changing cryosphere in the region.
2. Data sources and methods
2.1. Study area
The study is focused on Kolahoi valley (Fig.1), which is situated
in Himalayan mountain system of Kashmir with the altitude rang-
ing from 2102 to 5141 m a.m.s.l. The valley is spread over an area
of about 405 km2 and lies between the geographical coordinates
34°000 –34°150 N latitude and 75°060 –75°240 E longitude. The area
has a unique geomorphic and climatic setting making it a suitable
niche, for 26 glaciers including the largest glacier in the Kashmir
valley, the Kolahoi glacier (Odell, 1963). It is pertinent to mention
here that the snout of Kolahoi glacier is covered by a thin layer of
debris (Shukla and Ali, 2016). One of the biggest tributaries of Jhe-
lum river, Lidder, originates from the Kolahoi glacier (Rashid and
Romshoo, 2013). The valley has a typical temperate climate with
four seasons; spring, summer, autumn and winter. The area
receives precipitation both in the form of rain and snow. The mean
annual precipitation recorded at the nearest India Meteorological
Department (IMD) station, Pahalgam (2150 m a.m.s.l.), is
1240 mm. The area receives highest precipitation during winter
and spring while summers and autumns are usually drier. The
long-term average minimum temperature during the coldest
month, January, is
6.85 °C. The average maximum temperature
of the hottest month, July, can shoot up to 25 °C. However, the
maximum temperature can rise above 30 °C during summer and
the minimum temperature can drop below
18 °C during winter.
40 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50

2.2. Data used
In order to accomplish the research, data from various sources
was used to map the spatio-temporal changes of Kolahoi glacier
and different glacio-geomorphological features in the Kolahoi val-
ley. The data used in this research included satellite images, past
and projected climate data, ancillary data (in the form of historical
maps and published literature), field evidences and GPS measure-
ments. The details of the data sets used in this research are given
in Table 1.
2.3. Methods
The methods employed in this study are discussed below and
involved the integrated use of remote sensing data and historical
maps in Geographic Information System (GIS) supported by the
extensive field observations. Further, the past and future climate
data over the region was analyzed to establish the linkages
between the glacier recession and the changing climate.
2.3.1. Recession of the Kolahoi glacier
A time series of satellite and other available historical maps
were used for detecting the changes in the snout, area and volume
of Kolahoi glacier from 1857 to 2014. The data analysis involved
processing of the satellite images using standard algorithms
(Lillesand et al., 1987). Using the standard geometric correction
algorithm (Jensen, 2009), satellite data and maps were corrected
for geometrical distortions using map-to-image and image-to-
image geo-referencing. The ground control points were taken all
across the satellite image to ensure better geometric correction
of the satellite data, achieving a root mean square (RMS) error of
less than 1.00. All the satellite images and historical maps were
co-registered to each other in order to ensure the precise estimates
of the glaciers fluctuations. The enhancement techniques like his-
togram equalization, contrast stretch, band ratio, etc. were applied
to the satellite data to highlight the desired glacier features (Lee
et al., 2013a). The spatial extent of the Kolahoi glacier was
extracted from the satellite and other ancillary data using on-
screen image interpretation. On the basis of the available satellite
and other historical data, snout changes of the Kolahoi glacier were
estimated for 157 years (1857–2014) while the glacier area
changes were estimated for 51 years only from 1962 to 2013.
Furthermore, slope dependent method for volume estimation pro-
posed by Haeberli and Hoelzle (1995) was used to estimate glacier
volume changes from 1962 to 2010 based on the Survey of India
(SOI) topographic map and topographic data from ASTER
(Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiome-
ter) GDEM (Global DEM) version 2 released in 2012.
In absence of the field-based mass balance estimates for the
Kolahoi glacier, we estimated the mass balance of the glacier using
Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR) based model proposed by Kulkarni
(1992).
b ¼ 243:01  X
120:187
where b is the specific mass balance in water equivalent (cm w.e.)
and X is the Accumulation Area Ratio (AAR).
The changes in glacier ELA at different points in time were esti-
mated using the approach developed by Pellitero et al. (2015).
These ELA estimates have been shown to be in good agreement
with the ELA determined from satellite images.
2.3.2. Glacio-geomorphological mapping
The glacio-geomorphic landforms of the Kolahoi valley were
mapped using on-screen image interpretation of high resolution
Google Earth images and Landsat 8 OLI (Operational Land Imager)
satellite data draped onto to the 30 m ASTER GDEM (Punkari,
2013). Visual interpretation was employed due to its advantages
over digital classification in delineation of different surface fea-
tures in a topographically rugged terrain (Rashid et al., 2016).
Shadows and clouds pose a challenge for digital image processing
of satellite data in the mountainous terrain (Rashid and Abdullah,
2016) and therefore visual image interpretation, with cogitative
inputs from analyst, are preferred over the digital classification
algorithms for delineation of different land surface features
(Rashid et al., 2013). Small glacio-geomorphological features are
not identifiable on the Landsat data and hence the high resolution
Google Earth images were used to supplement the Landsat data for
the accurate delineation of the glacio-geomorphological features in
the Kolahoi valley (Smith and Pain, 2009; Darvill et al., 2014). DEM
derivatives such as profile curvature, slope, hill shading, contour
pattern and 3-D visualization techniques were employed to
improve the interpretation and delineation of different glacial
landforms (Smith et al., 2006). Further, different glacio-
geomorphological features were mapped during fieldwork using

Table 1
Description of datasets used in the study.

Dataset Acquisition date Path/row Spatial resolution/scale

Satellite data and maps
Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) 15th October 1992 149/36 30 m
Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) 27th August 2000 149/36 30 m
Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+) 30th September 2001 149/36 30 m
Indian remote sensing satellite-linear imaging
Self Scanning Sensor (IRS-LISS III) 24th October 2010 92/46 23.5 m
Landsat-8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) 25th October 2013 149/36 30 m
Google Earth Data-Digital Globe Quickbird 30th October 2006; – 2.62 m
Google Earth Data-Astrium Pleiades 18th September 2014 – 2m
Survey Illustration map (Drew) 1875 – 1:2,000,000
Topographical data
Survey of India (SoI) Toposheets 1962 – 1:50,000
ASTER GDEM version 2 2012 – 30 m
Meteorological projectionsa
PRECIS (A1B) 1961–2099 – 0.5°
CMIP5 Projections 21000 years B.P.-2099 – 0.5°
Field Data
GPS measurements 2010–2013 – Point data
Photographs 2010–2013 – Point data
a
Temperature and precipitation projections.
 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50 41

Table 2
Interpretation of different glacio-geomorphological features in the study area.

Feature Identification (morphology, colour/texture/structure, location)

Terminal/end moraine Prominent cross-valley single or multiple ridges with positive relief. Linear, curved, sinuous or saw-toothed in plan
Shadowing due to change in relief and change in colour where moraines are vegetate
Spanning over the entire deglaciated valley particularly at Aru, Lidderwat and Kolahoi Gunj
Lateral moraines Prominent along-valley single or multiple ridges with positive relief
Curvilinear ridges with brown-grey colour for non vegetated and red colour for vegetated, with medium to course texture along the sides of
the valley glaciers
Well defined lateral moraines are present at Lidderwat, Satlanjan and Kolahoi Gunj
Glaciers Bare ice, snow and debris. Surface structures (e.g. crevasses) common
White to light blue. Surface smooth to rough
Concentrated in the higher elevations of the study area.
Debris cone Sub-horizontal fans on valley sides. Typically fed by a melt-water channel or stream
Fan shaped accumulation with sharp boundary with surrounding terrain due to change in vegetation cover. Pattern of braided streams on
upper surface
Mostly concentrated to the west of the valley
Cirques Semi-circular steep sided depression formed through glacial erosion formed at the head of a valley glacier where some snow accumulates
Bowl shaped depressions at the head of past or present glacier, generally contain seasonal snow
Concentrated towards north of the upper valley
Horn Peak or pinnacle thinned and eroded by three or more glacial cirques
Highest elevated mount peaks associated with present or past glaciation
In the upper valley near the present glacier
Erratic boulder A foreign boulder or other rock fragment in a deglaciated valley
Sighted at Lidderwat
Whaleback Glacially moulded and smooth hard rock surfaces where length is greater than height produced as a result of glacier abrasion
Mostly in the northern side of the upper valley near Kolhaoi Gunj
U-shaped valley They are characterised by U-shaped cross profiles
Draping satellite images on DEM and generation of cross profiles are handy in U-shaped valley interpretation
The U-shaped valley spans upper half of the Kolahoi valley
Hanging valley These are characterised by the steep drop in valley bed/floor elevation when a tributary valley joins the main valley
Steep drop in valley bed elevation is observed when an image is draped on DEM. 3D visualization in Google Earth is also very useful in
interpretation
Present on the both sides of the valley, though most of them are concentrated towards west of the valley and above Aru

GPS as the satellite data could not capture a few smaller glacial fea-
tures. The criteria adopted to map different glacio-
geomorphological features from the satellite data are given in
Table 2.
2.3.3. Climate data analysis
There is a scanty network of meteorological observatories in the
region and the long-term meteorological data is available for one
IMD station at Pahalgam since 1980s only (Meraj et al., 2015;
Romshoo and Rashid, 2010). It is desirable to have a good network
of meteorological stations along the altitudinal gradient of the
Kolahoi valley to make valid inferences about the micro-climatic
variations of meteorological parameters in this montane system.
However, the entire Himalaya is poorly instrumented for observing
hydro-meteorological parameters which often constrains the holis-
tic understanding of various climatic and hydrologic processes in
the region. Therefore, in order to overcome this limitation, we used
the long-term climatological projections from PRECIS (Providing
REgional Climates for Impact Studies) Regional Climate Model
(RCM), which are considered robust in simulating the climate over
the HKH region (Dar et al., 2014; Rashid et al., 2015). Long-term
meteorological projections from 1961 to 2098, comprising of the
average annual maximum temperature, average annual minimum
temperature and total annual precipitation, with a spatial resolu-
tion of 0.5°, under IPCC SRES A1B scenario was extracted for the
study area from a PRECIS RCM run which centered at CO2 concen-
trations of 437 ppm and 630 ppm for the year 2035 and 2075
respectively (IPCC 2007). The data was analyzed for determining
the trends in temperature and precipitation. The 1961–2015 per-
iod was taken as the baseline, while as the two future scenarios
centered around the mid and end of the 21st century. Additionally,
temperature and precipitation projections from Last Glacial Maxi-
mum (LGM) up to the end of this century, developed by Lima-
Ribeiro et al. (2015) and available at http://www.ecoclimate.org,
from the three PMIP3-CMIP5 models – CCSM, MIROC and MRI,
were also analyzed over the study area.
3. Results and discussion
3.1. Recent recession of the Kolahoi glacier
3.1.1. Snout retreat
Kolahoi, the largest glacier in the Kashmir valley, is showing a
persistent retreat as confirmed by the glacio-geomorphological
evidences in the field together with the use of satellite images
and topographic maps. Lidder river originates from the snout of
Kolahoi glacier (snout altitude 3600 m a.m.s.l.), which is one of
the main source stream of Jhelum, an upper Indus river tributary.
The Kolahoi glacier is one of the well documented glaciers in the
Himalaya in terms of its snout retreat (Mayewski and Jeschke,
1979). The first attempt to map and monitor the snout of the Kola-
hoi glacier dates back to 1857 (Drew, 1875). Later on, several
researchers surveyed the Kolahoi glacier to determine the position
of its snout (Fig. 2). The analysis of the archived and remote sens-
ing data showed that the primary glacier snout has retreated
2.85 km from 1857 to 2014 (Table 3, Fig. 3a) with the average
retreat rate of 18.2 m year
1. From 1887 till 1992, the snout
retreated at the average rate of 16.75 m year
1. The rate of retreat
declined to 5.55 m year
1 during 1992–2000 period which is
attributed to relatively thicker snout (based on area-depth rela-
tionship) during 1990s (see Supplementary Fig. 1). Notwithstand-
ing the low retreat of glacier tongue along its length during
42 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50

Fig. 2. Photographic evidence of glacier retreat since early 1990s. (a and b) After Neve (1909), (c) After Odell (1960), (d) After Gilbert (1978), (e) After Comins (1990), (f) Shah
and Kanth (2012) and (g and h) present study.

Table 3 of the glacier has retreated at the rate of 16.35 m year-1 from 1962
Snout retreat of Kolahoi over last 157 years. to 2013 compared to 23.25 m year
1 for the primary snout during
Period Snout retreat (m) Retreat rate (m yr
1) the same period. A few studies carried out in the neighbouring
1857–1887 402 13.4
glacierized basins also suggest that the snout retreat of the Kolahoi
1887–1912 440 17.6 glacier is comparatively higher (Kulkarni et al., 2006; Hewitt, 2011;
1912–1962 800 16 Schmidt and Nüsser, 2012; Bahuguna et al., 2014). The compara-
1962–1992 600 20 tively higher rate of retreat observed for the Kolahoi glacier could
1992–2001 50 5.55
be partly attributed to the significant climatic changes observed in
2001–2006 111 22.2
2006–2014 454 56.75 the Kashmir valley during the last century (Shekhar et al., 2010; Liu
et al., 2006; Rashid et al., 2015) and partly to the relatively lower
snout elevation of the Kolahoi glacier compared to those in the
Zanskar and Karakoram mountain ranges (Hewitt 2011; Copland
1992–2000, the glacier experienced relatively higher recession lat- et al., 2011).
erally along the ablation zone during the period. The snout retreat
rate of the Kolahoi glacier reported here is consistent with some of 3.1.2. Glacier area changes
the glaciers studied across the Himalaya including the Milam gla- Multi-temporal satellite images along with the topographic
cier in the central Himalaya, Samandurtapu in the western Hima- maps were used to determine the changes in the Kolahoi glacier
laya and Gongotri in the central Himalaya (Bhambri and Bolch, area from 1962 to 2013. The analysis revealed that the glacier
2009; Kamp et al., 2011). The recent observations from the high has lost an area of 2.81 km2 during the last 51 years which
resolution satellite data, verified in the field using GPS, indicate a amounts to 21.47% of total glacier area since 1962 (Table 4,
high snout retreat rate of 56.75 m year
1 between 2006 and 2014 Fig. 4). The glacier area recession of 2.84% at an annual rate of
(Fig. 3b and c). It was also observed that the retreat rate of the sec- 0.094% was observed during 1962–1992 which is the lowest reces-
ondary snout of the Kolahoi glacier has always been comparatively sion rate observed during the 51 year period. A recession of 8.52%
lower than that of the primary snout owing to its larger feeding in the glacier area was observed during the 1992–2000. The trend
accumulation zone. The analysis indicates that the secondary snout continued at almost the same rate from 2000 to 2010 with the total
 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50 43

Fig. 3. Change in glacier snout: (a) From since 1857–2014, numbers in the brackets indicate snout altitude at different points in time (b, c) Indicate changes from 2006 to
2014 based on high resolution satellite data.

Table 4
Variations in the area of Kolahoi glacier since past 51 years from 1962–2013.

Year Area (km2) Period Area change (km2) Area change (%)
1962 13.73 – – –
1992 13.34 1962–1992
0.39
2.84
2000 12.17 1992–2000
1.17
8.52
2010 11.12 2000–2010
1.05
8.65
2013 10.92 2010–2013
0.2
1.46

estimated recession of 8.65% and thereafter the recession declined
during 2010–2013 to 1.46%. The higher rate of glacier area reces-
sion observed from 1992 to 2000 corresponds with the low rate
of the snout retreat observed during the same period and is attrib-
uted to the glacier bed morphology under the terminus (see Sup-
plementary Fig. 2). Although the glacier terminus along the
central flow line did not show high retreat but the lateral extents
of the snout receded by about 80 and 40 m on the eastern and
western side respectively. The low rate of glacier area recession
observed during 2010–2013 period corresponds to the maximum
snout retreat observed during the same time period. This dichot-
omy is best explained by the fact that the present snout position,
as seen from the Fig. 3, lies at a steep slope making it easy for
the frontal part to fragment and calf from the glacier body as it tap-
pers out. Field evidence also corroborated that the steep gradient
of the snout is responsible for the enhanced retreat observed in
the recent times. The relatively lower areal recession observed
for the Kolahoi glacier during this period could also be due to the
good snowfall received in the valley during 2010. Overall, the rate
of recession of the Kolahoi glacier is relatively higher compared to
the recession rates of the glaciers in its neighbourhood (Kamp
et al., 2011; Schmidt and Nüsser, 2012) which could be partly
attributed to the climatic change observed in the Lidder valley
(Romshoo et al., 2014; Romshoo et al., 2015). Aerosols particularly
the black carbon (BC) could be the other reason for the enhanced
melting of Kolahoi glacier as the BC concentration has been
reported higher for Kashmir Himalayan glaciers (Bhat et al.,
2014, 2016); however, it needs further detailed investigation. It
is pertinent to mention that studies by Lee et al. (2013b), Ming
et al. (2008, 2012), Ramanathan and Carmichael (2008) have
reported the role of aerosols including black carbon in enhancing
the glacier melt over Himalaya. In an attempt to ascertain the
impact of changing aspect characteristics on the glacier recession
a comparative analysis of aspect characteristics was carried out
44 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50
Fig. 4. Change in glacier area since 1962.
based on 1962 topographic sheets and ASTER GDEM. It was found
that most of the glacier area is predominantly north facing (64%),
followed by eastern (19%) and southern aspects (10.33%) respec-
tively. The comparative analysis of aspect distribution based on
the two data sets showed a modest increase of 4.5% in southern
aspect since 1962 which might have also contributed to some
enhanced glacier recession.
3.1.3. Glacier volume, ELA and mass changes
Volume changes of the Kolahoi glacier were estimated using the
slope dependent method proposed by Haeberli and Hoelzle (1995)
and subsequently used by many researchers (Frey et al., 2014;
Farinotti et al., 2009; Linsbauer et al., 2009) in the Himalayan ter-
rain. The topographic data in the region is available only for the
year 1962, 2000 and 2010 and therefore, this has restricted the
estimation of glacier volume and the changes thereof to only these
years. Based on the results of the volume estimation, it was found
that the glacier has lost 0.30 km3 between 1962 and 2010 and the
glacier has reduced in volume from 1.11 km3 to 0.81 km3 respec-
tively (Table 5). The maximum loss was found between 1962 and
2000 which amounts to 0.29 km3 at the rate of 7.6  106 m3 year
1.
The relatively lower glacier area change and the high snow precip-
itation recorded in the last decade are responsible for the smaller
volume changes estimated during 2000–2010 (Bahuguna et al.,
2014). The glacier lost 0.01 km3 at the rate of 106 m3 year
1 during
Table 5
Glacier volume estimates.
Year Area (km2) Mean slope (°)
1962 13.72 17.33
2000 12.17 19.30
2010 11.12 18.17
this period. The glacier volume and area loss estimated for the
Kolahoi glacier might continue in future like other Himalayan gla-
ciers (Fujita and Nuimura, 2011) as a large part of the glacier ice is
concentrated in the relatively flat ablation area. The glacier ELA
estimated at different points in time revealed that the ELA has
shifted upward from 1962 to 2008. The estimated ELA in 1962
was 4243 m a.m.s.l. corresponding to AAR of 0.47 and specific mass
balance of
6.77 cm w.e. The glacier ELA has shifted upwards by
189–4432 m a.m.s.l. in 2000 corresponding to AAR of 0.46 and
specific mass balance of
6.01 cm w.e. In 2010, the ELA shifted
upwards by 28 m to 4404 m a.m.s.l with respect to 2000 position.
The reduction in the rate of ELA shift is also reflected by the lower
specific mass balance value of -2.29 cm w.e. during the corre-
sponding period. Murtaza and Romshoo (2016), using the satellite
data indices, also reported the upward shifting of the ELA for var-
ious glaciers in the Lidder valley including the Kolahoi glacier.
However, the mass balance estimates reported in this study are
more robust due to the better estimation methods employed here
and were verified with the satellite data.
3.2. Glacial landforms
A number of glacio-geomorphological features including the
terminal and lateral moraines distributed all along the valley from
Pahalgam (at the terminus) to Kolahoi Gunj (at the head) of the
valley; glacial till at Pahalgam and Aru; U-shaped valley, spanning
entirely the upper west Lidder; hanging valleys, concentrated to
the western side of the valley; cirques; erratic boulder at Lidder-
wat; whaleback and pro-glacial lake near Kolahoi Gunj; were
mapped from the remote sensing data supplemented and validated
by the extensive field observations (Figs. 5–7). Such features are
evidences of glaciation and deglaciation across the Kolahoi valley
during the Quaternary. These glacio-geomorphological features
occur in the entire valley starting from the current position of
the glacier snout and extend to about 35 km downstream up to
Pahalgam. The valley is predominantly represented by the U-
shaped cross sectional profile even though the lower part has
transformed into the V-shape possibly as a result of the fluvial ero-
sion. The fluvial incisions, observed in the valley during the field
surveys, typically exhibit V-shaped cross sections and interlocking
spurs. The valley from the present glacier snout up to about 5 km
downstream (marked as A in Fig. 5) is deep and narrow, repre-
sented by a typical U-shaped cross-sectional profile. For another
8 km downstream (marked as B on Fig. 5), the valley is relatively
wide, lithologically comprising of shales and limestones (Agrawal
et al., 1989; Srikantia and Bhargava, 1983). From Lidderwat, the
valley relatively gets narrower as it approaches Aru but widens
appreciably at Aru. Above 3 km from Pahalgam (marked as C
Fig. 5), the valley is V-shaped possibly formed by the erosion of
previously U-shaped valley owing to its relatively steep gradient
(Herman et al., 2011). A number of hanging valleys, formed as a
result of differential rates of erosion between the main valley
and the valleys (Amundson and Iverson, 2006; Egholm et al.,
2012), joining it along its sides almost perpendicularly, were also
mapped. Most of the hanging valleys join the main valley upstream
of Aru and are concentrated towards the west of the valley (Figs. 5
and 6). The presence of hanging valleys suggests that seven tribu-
tary glaciers might have been a part of the trunk glacier above Aru
sometime in the past. In addition, we also mapped the evidences of
three tributary glaciers between Aru and Pahalgam that might
have been a part of Kolahoi during the Quaternary. Similar findings
have been reported by Ahmad and Hashimi (1974), however, in
Volume (m3)
this study using the high resolution satellite data at 1:10,000 scale,
1.11  109 we identified a number of fine-scale glacio-geomorphological fea-
0.82  109
0.81  109
tures that were not mapped by earlier researchers including a set
of moraines in Kolahoi Gunj, erosional features such as glacier stri-
 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50
Fig. 5. Detailed glacio-geomorphological map of the study region.
ations and whalebacks in the valley. Furthermore, the use of satel-
lite images in combination with the DEM enabled us to accurately
map both, the vertical as well the horizontal dimensions of various
glacio-geomorphological features including moraines and hanging
valleys.
Important erosional landforms, including whalebacks, striations
or grooves and cirques, were also identified and mapped in the
deglaciated Kolahoi valley (Fig. 7). Striations or grooves are indeli-
ble marks engraved on the surface of the bedrocks by glaciers (Jain,
2014). The striations and polished surfaces are preserved along the
valley walls of west Lidder and the adjoining hanging valleys
(Fig. 7 d and f). The striations, an evidence of past glacier move-
ment (Schoenbohm et al., 2014), are confined to the northern side
of the Kolahoi valley. The striations observed well below the pre-
sent snout position of the Kolahoi glacier indicate the extents of
glaciation during the Quaternary. The striations suggest that the
vertical extension of Kolahoi glacier was more than 200 m in the
past. Cirques, observed in the deglaciated Kolahoi valley, are
mostly concentrated towards the northern side of the valley. How-
ever, most of the cirques have now transformed into lakes (Figs. 5
and 6). Whalebacks are glacially moulded smooth hard rock sur-
faces produced by glacial abrasion which serve as an important
evidence of past glaciation in the valley indicating the direction
and flow of glacier movement (Glasser and Bennett, 2004). Whale-
backs are constrained in the upper southern part of the Kolahoi
valley.
The detailed glacio-geomorphological mapping also revealed
the presence of a number of glacial depositional features. The mor-
aines cover the entire deglaciated valley right from Pahalgam up to
Kolahoi (Fig. 1). While some of the moraines are well preserved in
the valley, the others have been partly eroded, and covered with
debris or vegetation. A total of 12 moraines, both lateral and termi-
nal, were mapped from the high resolution satellite images sup-
ported by the detailed field surveys between Pahalgam and the
present snout position of the Kolahoi glacier. The mapped mor-
45
aines include the till cover at Pahalgam and Aru. All the moraines
are recognizable in terms of their size, morphology and distance
from the terminus of the Kolahoi glacier. The well preserved till
at Aru is about 600 m and 200 m in length and breadth respectively
(Figs. 1 and 5). Currently the till is partly covered with vegetation.
A set of moraines at Lidderwat include two lateral moraines and a
terminal moraine (Figs. 1 and 5). The lateral moraines lie near Lid-
derwat, 12 km downstream from the present snout position of
the Kolahoi glacier. The lateral moraines are 4 km and 4.5 km
long on the western and eastern side of the valley respectively.
The end moraine at Lidderwat which is relatively smaller in size
(80 m on each side of the river) could be most probably linked
to the Tarsar glacier, a tributary glacier of Kolahoi glacier during
the Quaternary (Fig. 1). Another set of moraines, near Satlanjan,
includes a pair of lateral moraines and a well preserved terminal
moraine; 7 km downstream from the present snout position (Figs. 1
and 5). The lateral moraines span over a length of 1.6 km with a
height of about 160 m. Based on the ground information, the ter-
minal moraine is spread across the U-shaped valley at Satlanjan.
Further, 1.5 km downstream from the present snout position at
Kolahoi Gunj, a moraine bed with moraine ridge crest >150 m in
height from the adjacent incised valley bottom was observed and
includes a pair of lateral moraines and a partially eroded terminal
moraine (Fig. 5). The lateral moraine spans over a length of about
800 m. A pair of lateral moraines is also present at Kolahoi Gunj,
just a few meters below the present snout position of the glacier
spanning over a length of 670 m and 450 m on southern and north-
ern sides of the valley respectively. A prominent terminal moraine
with a height of 30 m is present at a distance of about 400 m down-
stream from the present snout position of the Hoksar glacier, once
a tributary glacier of Kolahoi (Fig. 5). This terminal moraine has
impounded a pro-glacial lake (Fig. 5). These newly deposited fea-
tures observed in the upper parts of the valley reflect continuous
recession of the Kolahoi glacier during the Quaternary. The present
study also observed an erratic boulder near Lidderwat (Fig. 5). The
46 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50
Fig. 6. Glacio-geomorphological features as observed on high resolution satellite GeoEye images (a) U-shaped valley, (b) Hanging valley, (c) Cirques, (d) Horn, and (e) Lateral
moraines.
gigantic size of the erratic boulder present at Lidderwat (Fig. 7e) is
an important evidence of the glacier extents of Kolahoi glacier in
the recent past.
3.3. Climate change since the LGM
Average temperature and precipitation data from the ensemble
of 3 PMIP3-CMIP5 models was used to look into the changing cli-
mate regimes since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years back)
up to the end of the 21st century (Taylor et al., 2012; Zhou et al.,
2014; Wang and Chen, 2014). It is clear from Fig. 8 that the changes
in temperatures have been much higher during the last 100 years
when compared to the temperature changes simulated during
the beginning of Holocene and earlier. Temperatures increased
by 0.001 °C per decade from 21000 years up to the past 1000 years
contrary to 0.01 °C per decade change estimated from 1900 to
1999. The future temperature projections ending 2099 are pre-
dicted even higher indicating a rise from 0.18 °C per decade
(RCP2.6) to 0.61 °C per decade (RCP8.5). Annual observed and pro-
jected precipitation on the other hand shows an insignificant
change over the region during the same time period. However, it
has been reported that the form of precipitation has changed in
the region over the last few decades due to the observed changes
in the temperature (Shekhar et al., 2010). There is less snowfall
observed during winter and spring and correspondingly the pro-
portion of rainfall has increased during these seasons in the region
(Romshoo et al., 2015). It is pertinent to mention that in many
parts of the Indian Himalaya, glaciers reached their maximum
positions early in the last glacial cycle before the LGM. Studies car-
ried out by Murari et al. (2014), Hughes et al. (2013), Hughes and
Gibbard (2015) make it amply clear that a large proportion of gla-
ciers across globe were not at their most extensive during the glo-
bal LGM.
The temporal resolution of climatological data from the ensem-
ble of 3 PMIP3-CMIP5 models is very coarse. In this context, we
used high-resolution projected annual temperature and precipita-
tion for the region from PRECIS RCM experiment run for the south
Asia domain under A1B emission scenario. Both the projected aver-
age maximum and average minimum temperatures show a statis-
tically significant increasing trend while as the precipitation shows
an insignificant increasing trend with large inter-annual variations
(Fig. 9). The overall average maximum temperature for the study
area is projected to increase by 4.24 °C (±1.63) by the end of cen-
tury with reference to the baseline period of 1961–2015. Maxi-
mum temperature will rise at the rate of 0.16 °C per decade up
to mid of the century while as an increased warming at the rate
of 0.26 °C per decade is projected from mid to end of the 21st cen-
tury. Minimum temperature also shows similar increasing trend
with an increase of 4.13 °C (±1.33) by the end of century and a
warming rate of 0.18 °C per decade up to 2050 and 0.23 °C per dec-
ade from 2050 to the end of the century. The temperature rise pre-
dicted by PRECIS RCM is very similar to the ensemble projections
 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50
Fig. 7. Glacio-geomorphological features as observed during field survey (a) Lateral moraine, (b) terminal moraine, (c) horn, (d) whaleback, (e) erratic boulder, and (f) glacial
striations.
Fig. 8. Multi-model paleoclimate since Last glacial maximum (LGM). During the
present study we used temperature and precipitation from three models – CCSM:
Community Climate System Model; MIROC: Model for Interdisciplinary Research on
Climate; MRI: Meteorological Research Institute.
from CMIP5 models. Total annual precipitation does not conform
to any significant increasing trend. PRECIS model overestimated
the precipitation compared to the ground observations although
47
both show very insignificant increase across the years (Rao et al.,
2014; Rajbhandari et al., 2015). The recession of Kolahoi glacier
could therefore be mainly attributed to the melting under the
changing climate with significant increase in temperature and less
snowfall observed during the winter and spring seasons over the
region. If the trend continues, as the projected climate change sce-
narios indicate, the enhanced melting and scanty snowfall will
have serious implications for cryosphere in Kashmir Himalaya
(Shrestha et al., 1999; Negi et al., 2012; Singh et al., 2015;
Romshoo et al., 2015).
4. Conclusions
The recent deglaciation of Kolahoi since the past 157 years
revealed that the snout of the glacier has retreated by 2.85 km
since 1857. The average rate of snout recession is 18.2 m year
1,
though, an accelerated recession of 43.46 m year
1, was observed
during the last 13 years, which is attributed to the glacier morphol-
ogy and steep bed topography near the current snout. During the
past 51 years from 1961 to 2010, the Kolahoi has lost 21.47% of
its area, of which 11.36% was lost during the first 38 years and
10.11% during the last 13 years of the observation period. The gla-
cier has lost 0.30 km3 of its volume during the same period. It is
observed that the Kolahoi glacier is receding at a higher rate com-
pared to the other glaciers studied in the western Himalaya. Based
on the field surveys and analysis of the satellite data, it is con-
48 I. Rashid et al. / Journal of Asian Earth Sciences 138 (2017) 38–50
Fig. 9. Climate change projections by the end of 21st century.
cluded that the deglaciation of Kolahoi during the Quaternary is
evidenced by the presence of glacial till at Pahalgam and Aru; ter-
minal moraines at Lidderwat, Satlanjan and Kolahoi Gunj, U-
shaped valleys, hanging valleys, cirques and glacial striations in
the Kolahoi valley. The high recession in the glacier area is attrib-
uted to the significant increase in the minimum and maximum
temperatures which not only accelerate the glacier melt but also
change the form of precipitation from snow to rain in the region.
The temperature projections for the region indicate that there is
a ten-fold increase in decadal temperatures over the region since
the Last Glacial Maximum. Recent temperature projections from
CMIP5 experiment indicate a temperature rise ranging from
1.53 °C to 5.18 °C by the end of 21st century under different emis-
sion scenarios which might, in all likelihood, adversely impact the
Kolahoi and other glaciers in the Kashmir valley. Such climatic
changes, if realized in future, would adversely affect the glaciers
in the Kolahoi valley with a potential to significantly affect the
dependent sectors like stream flows, irrigation and energy genera-
tion in the Kashmir valley and beyond.
Acknowledgements
The research work was conducted as part of the Department of
Science and Technology (DST), Government of India, New Delhi
sponsored research project titled ‘‘Himalayan Cryosphere: Science
and Society” and the financial assistance received from the Depart-
ment under the project to accomplish this research is thankfully
acknowledged. The authors express gratitude to the two anony-
mous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions on
the earlier version of the manuscript that has greatly improved
its content and structure.
Appendix A. Supplementary material
Supplementary data associated with this article can be found, in
the online version, at http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jseaes.2017.02.
002.
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