Stats Assignment - Reg and Correlation

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Castrol India Ltd.

Sales (In Million PAT (In Millions PBIT (In Millions Stock Return (In
Year ₹) ₹) ₹) Rupees₹)
Mar-12 ₹ 35,395.60 ₹ 4,817.90 ₹ 7,337.60 ₹ 27.42
Mar-13 ₹ 37,387.00 ₹ 4,473.90 ₹ 6,758.80 ₹ 32.31
Mar-14 ₹ 38,351.90 ₹ 5,085.70 ₹ 7,710.50 -₹ 11.35
Mar-15 ₹ 40,813.90 ₹ 4,745.60 ₹ 7,340.20 ₹ 82.57
Mar-16 ₹ 40,066.80 ₹ 6,152.60 ₹ 9,525.80 -₹ 44.22
Mar-17 ₹ 41,658.30 ₹ 6,703.80 ₹ 10,539.00 ₹ 22.02
Mar-18 ₹ 41,742.80 ₹ 6,918.10 ₹ 10,930.40 -₹ 4.20
Mar-19 ₹ 42,925.60 ₹ 7,083.60 ₹ 11,019.10 -₹ 43.19
Mar-20 ₹ 42,728.50 ₹ 8,273.70 ₹ 11,717.40 -₹ 24.31
Mar-21 ₹ 33,444.70 ₹ 5,829.40 ₹ 7,941.20 -₹ 14.70
Mar-22 ₹ 46,276.80 ₹ 7,580.90 ₹ 10,392.70 -₹ 20.00
Sales (In Million
PAT (In₹) Millions
PBIT (In
₹)Stock
Millions
Return
₹) (In Rupees₹)
Sales (In Mi 1
PAT (In Mil 0.705877 1
PBIT (In Mil 0.737841 0.958821 1
Stock Retu -0.230495 -0.628764 -0.591667 1
Year Stock Return (In Sales (In Million
Rupees₹) ₹)
Mar-12 ₹ 27.42 ₹ 35,395.60
Mar-13 ₹ 32.31 ₹ 37,387.00
Mar-14 -₹ 11.35 ₹ 38,351.90
Mar-15 ₹ 82.57 ₹ 40,813.90
Mar-16 -₹ 44.22 ₹ 40,066.80
Mar-17 ₹ 22.02 ₹ 41,658.30
Mar-18 -₹ 4.20 ₹ 41,742.80
Mar-19 -₹ 43.19 ₹ 42,925.60
Mar-20 -₹ 24.31 ₹ 42,728.50

Mar-21 -₹ 14.70 ₹ 33,444.70


Mar-22 -₹ 20.00 ₹ 46,276.80
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Norma
Regression Statistics

Stock Return (In Rupees₹)


100
Multiple R 0.230495164 80
R Square 0.053128021 60
40
Adjusted R Square -0.05207998 20
Standard Error 38.74995398 0
-20 0 20
Observations 11 -40
-60
ANOVA
Significanc
df SS MS F eF
Regression 1 758.25846 758.26 0.504980816 0.4953211
Residual 9 13514.03 1501.6
Total 10 14272.289

Standard Lower Upper Lower Upper


Coefficients Error t Stat P-value 95% 95% 95.0% 95.0%
Intercept 95.00193077 133.89886 0.7095 0.4959799 -207.8983 397.9 -207.9 397.902
Sales (In Million ₹) -0.00236545 0.0033287 -0.7106 0.495321076 -0.009896 0.0052 -0.0099 0.00516

PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Stock Return
Percentile (In Rupees₹)
4.54545454545455 -44.22
13.6363636363636 -43.19
22.7272727272727 -24.31
31.8181818181818 -20
40.9090909090909 -14.7
50 -11.35
59.0909090909091 -4.2
68.1818181818182 22.02
77.2727272727273 27.42
86.3636363636364 32.31
95.4545454545455 82.57
Normal Probability Plot
Stock Return (In Rupees₹)

100
80
60
40
20
0
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-40
-60
Sample Percentile
Year Stock Return (In PAT (In Millions
Rupees₹) ₹)
Mar-12 ₹ 27.42 ₹ 4,817.90
Mar-13 ₹ 32.31 ₹ 4,473.90
Mar-14 -₹ 11.35 ₹ 5,085.70
Mar-15 ₹ 82.57 ₹ 4,745.60
Mar-16 -₹ 44.22 ₹ 6,152.60
Mar-17 ₹ 22.02 ₹ 6,703.80
Mar-18 -₹ 4.20 ₹ 6,918.10
Mar-19 -₹ 43.19 ₹ 7,083.60
Mar-20 -₹ 24.31 ₹ 8,273.70
Mar-21 -₹ 14.70 ₹ 5,829.40
Mar-22 -₹ 20.00 ₹ 7,580.90
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.628763718140952
R Square 0.395343813250434
Adjusted R Square 0.328159792500482
Standard Error 30.9656220759908
Observations 11

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 5642.46109957 5642.4610996 5.884491712 0.0382452811
Residual 9 8629.82775498 958.86975055
Total 10 14272.2888545

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%


Intercept 115.309069150493 48.3563278641 2.3845704222 0.040919984 5.9194557061
PAT (In Millions ₹) -0.0187105005328502 0.00771313491 -2.425797129 0.038245281 -0.036158824

PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Percentile Stock Return (In Rupees₹)


4.54545454545455 -44.22
13.6363636363636 -43.19
22.7272727272727 -24.31
31.8181818181818 -20
40.9090909090909 -14.7
50 -11.35
59.0909090909091 -4.20000000000002
68.1818181818182 22.02
77.2727272727273 27.42
86.3636363636364 32.31
95.4545454545455 82.57
Normal Probability Plot

Stock Return (In Rupees₹)


100
80
60
40
20
0
-20 0 20 40 60 80 100 120
-40
-60
Sample Percentile

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


224.69868259 5.9194557061 224.69868259
-0.001262177 -0.036158824 -0.001262177
ot

100 120
Stock Return PBIT (In
Year (In Rupees₹) Millions ₹) SUMMARY OUTPUT
Mar-12 ₹ 27.42 ₹ 7,337.60
Mar-13 ₹ 32.31 ₹ 6,758.80 Regression Statistics
Mar-14 -₹ 11.35 ₹ 7,710.50 Multiple
Mar-15 ₹ 82.57 ₹ 7,340.20 R Square
Mar-16 -₹ 44.22 ₹ 9,525.80 Adjusted
Mar-17 ₹ 22.02 ₹ 10,539.00 Standard
Mar-18 -₹ 4.20 ₹ 10,930.40 Observat
Mar-19 -₹ 43.19 ₹ 11,019.10
Mar-20 -₹ 24.31 ₹ 11,717.40 ANOVA
Mar-21 -₹ 14.70 ₹ 7,941.20
Mar-22 -₹ 20.00 ₹ 10,392.70 Regressi
Residual
Total

Coefficients
Intercep
PBIT (In

PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Percentile
4.5455
13.636
22.727
31.818
40.909
50
59.091
68.182
77.273
86.364
95.455
SUMMARY OUTPUT
Normal Probability Plot
Regression Statistics

Stock Return (In Rupees₹)


100
0.591667 80
0.35007 60
40
0.277856 20
32.10397 0
-20 0 20 40 60 80 1
11 -40
-60
Sample Percentile
df SS MS F Significance F
1 4996.3 4996.3 4.8476 0.0552
9 9276 1030.7
10 14272

Coefficients
Standard Error
t Stat P-valueLower 95%
Upper 95%
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
114.0313 52.593 2.1682 0.0583 -4.9421 233 -4.9421 233
-0.01237 0.0056 -2.2017 0.0552 -0.0251 0.0003 -0.0251 0.0003

PROBABILITY OUTPUT

Stock Return (In Rupees₹)


-44.22
-43.19
-24.31
-20
-14.7
-11.35
-4.2
22.02
27.42
32.31
82.57
Probability Plot

40 60 80 100 120

Sample Percentile

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