L2 - Issues With The Current Energy Paradigm

E‐TRANSITION,
SUSTAINABILITY AND ECONOMICS
L2 – ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT ENERGY PARADIGM
Ettore F. Bompard, Daniele Grosso
OUTLINE
 Energy flows: from sources to sinks

 Energy services and energy consumption
 Global energy figures
FARE CLIC PER MODIFICARE LO STILE DEL TITOLO
 Energy trade and energy security
 Issues with the current energy paradigm
o The “energy trilemma”
o Sustainability and health issues
o Socio-economic issues
o Security issues
 The need for a change of paradigm
E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 2

ENERGY FLOWS: FROM SOURCES TO SINKS

THE ENERGY DIMENSIONS
PHYSICAL Physical energy flows, related to the main items of the energy balance
(production, import/export, transformation and consumption)
ECONOMIC Economic impacts on the GDP of a country related to the energy mix
Environmental implications, related to the energy mix, to the contribution of

ENVIRONMENTAL fossil fuels and RES and to GHG and air pollutant emissions
Geopolitical implications, related to the composition and diversification of

GEOPOLITICAL the energy supply, to the energy import dependency and to the effects on
the energy security
Impacts on households and citizens in terms of incidence of energy

SOCIAL
expenditures on income and health consequences related to the energy mix

SOME KEYWORDS
Capability of individuals or households of satisfying their needs for energy services at an
AFFORDABILITY
affordable cost w.r.t. their income
Ratio between the obtained output and the amount of energy needed for getting
EFFICIENCY it. Enhance energy efficiency means to obtain the same output (e.g. a given
service) using less energy
Capability of meeting the current needs without compromising the ability of future
generations to meet their own needs, in particular – w.r.t. the environment – without
SUSTAINABILITY modifying the natural cycles more than the natural resilience allows, and without
impoverish the natural resources that has to be shared with future generations
Capability of ensuring the availability of energy, according to its different typologies and
end uses, in the needed quantity, where it is requested, in a short‐, mid‐ and long‐term
SECURITY time horizon with fair and sustainable prices to match the individual, national or global
needs

ENERGY SERVICES AND ENERGY CONSUMPTION

THE ENERGY COMMODITIES
Primary Commodities Secondary Commodities Solids
Anthracite Gas coke Natural Gas
Coking coal Patent fuel
Other bituminous coal
Oil
Brown coal briquettes
Sub-bituminous coal Coal tar Renewables
Lignite Manufactured gases Nuclear
Natural gas Coke oven gas Electricity
Crude oil Gas works gas Heat
Natural gas liquids Blast furnace gas
Other hydrocarbons Other recovered gases
Hydro Refinery feedstocks
Geothermal
Wind
Additives and oxygenates (excluding biofuel portion)
Refinery gas
 Energy commodities can be
Solar thermal and PV Ethane classified in
Tide, wave, ocean Liquefied petroleum gases (LPG)
Ambient heat (heat pumps) Naphtha
Primary solid biofuels Aviation gasoline
 Primary: extracted or
Charcoal Motor gasoline (excluding biofuel portion) captured directly from
Pure and blended biogasoline Gasoline-type jet fuel
Pure and blended biodiesels Kerosene-type jet fuel (excluding biofuel portion) natural resources
Pure and blended bio jet kerosene Other kerosene
Biogases
Industrial waste (non-renewable)
Gas oil and diesel oil (excluding biofuel portion)
Fuel oil
 Secondary: coming from the
Renewable and non-renweable municipal waste White spirit and special boiling point industrial spirits transformation of primary
Non-renewable waste Lubricants
Nuclear heat Paraffin waxes energy commodities
Petroleum coke
Bitumen
Electricity
Heat

THE ENERGY COMMODITIES – SOME DEFINITIONS
 Coking coal: coal with a quality that allows the production of a coke suitable to support a blast furnace charge.
 Natural Gas Liquids: liquid or liquefied hydrocarbons produced in the manufacture, purification and stabilization
of natural gas. Their characteristics vary, ranging from those of ethane, butane and propane to heavy oils.
NGL’s are either distilled with crude oil in refineries, blended with refined petroleum products or used directly
 Charcoal: lightweight black carbon residue produced by strongly heating wood in minimal oxygen to remove all
water and volatile constituents
 Gas coke: by-product of hard coal used for the production of town gas in gas works
 Patent fuel: composition fuel manufactured from hard coal fines with the addition of a binding agent
 Brown coal briquettes: compressed blocks, manufactured by pressing these dried brown coal particles
 Coal tar: by-product of bituminous coal, containing a tar-like substance called bitumen, or asphalt
 Manufactured gas: combustible gaseous mixtures (as carbureted water gas or producer gas) made from coal or
coke for use as a fuel, illuminant, or raw material for synthesis
 Coke oven gas: by-product of the manufacture of coke oven coke for the production of iron and steel
 Gas works gas: all types of gas produced in public utility or private plants, like gas produced by carbonisation,
by total gasification, by cracking of natural gas, and by reforming and simple mixing of gases and/or air
 Blast furnace gas: produced during the combustion of coke in blast furnaces in the iron and steel industry;
mainly used as a fuel partly within the plant and partly in other steel industry processes
THE ENERGY COMMODITIES – SOME DEFINITIONS
 Refinery feedstock: product or combination of products derived from crude oil and destined for further
processing other than blending in the refining industry. It is transformed into one or more components and/or
finished products
 Additives: non-hydrocarbon substances added to or blended with a product to modify its properties, f.i. to
improve its combustion characteristics
 Refinery gas: gas obtained during distillation of crude oil or treatment of oil products (e.g. cracking) in refineries.
It consists mainly of hydrogen, methane, ethane and olefins
 White spirit: refined distillate intermediates with a distillation in the naphtha/kerosene range
 Paraffin waxes: saturated aliphatic hydrocarbons; are residues extracted when dewaxing lubricant oils. they are
colourless, odourless and translucent, with a melting point >45 °C
 Petroleum coke: black solid residue, obtained mainly by cracking and carbonising of petroleum derived
feedstocks, vacuum bottoms, tar and pitches. It consists mainly of carbon (90-95%) and has a low ash content.
It is used as a feedstock in coke ovens for the steel industry, for heating purposes, for electrode manufacture
and for production of chemicals

THE ENERGY SERVICES
Energy Services
Needs (e.g. space heating and cooling, cooking, lighting, industrial process heat, mobility of
passengers and goods, …) that require the use energy commodities (primary or secondary) in ad
hoc end-use technologies (e.g. stoves, heat pumps, air conditioners, lamps, industrial ovens, cars,
trains, ships, aircrafts, ...) to be satisfied
Energy System
Production Transmission Transformation
Final Uses
TPES AND TFC
TPES: Total Primary Energy Supply. Inland demand of primary energy of a country
=
+ - +/-
Internal production Net import Bunkers Stock changes
TFC: Total Final Consumption. Sum of consumption by the different end-use sectors
=
+ + +
Industry Residential Commerce & Services Transport
+ +
Agriculture Other non-energy uses
GLOBAL ENERGY FIGURES

ENERGY CONSUMPTION: FROM MICRO TO MACRO
3 times
Annual consumption
Annual electricity consumption of a car: 28.7 GJ
of a household: 9.7 GJ
11 times
World annual TPES:
576.1 EJ
EU annual TPES:
66.9 EJ
2017 Data. Source: IEA Statistics
WORLD ENERGY ALLOCATION
Size1 Population2 Energy Consumption2 Energy Consumption per capita GDP PPP2 GDP PPP/Capita

Continent
km2 % pu M % pu Quadrillion Btu % pu Mbtu/person Billion $2010 pu $/person pu
1 Europe 6,396,102 4 1.0 617 8 1.0 81.80 13 1.0 132.6 20,978 1.0 34,012 1.0
2 Eurasia 22,306,138 15 3.5 292 4 0.5 45.43 7 0.6 155.5 5,089 0.6 17,415 0.6
Asia, Middle East &
3 35,580,486 24 5.6 4,337 58 7.0 278.62 44 3.4 64.2 50,906 3.4 11,736 3.4
Oceania
4 Africa 27,507,346 19 4.3 1,213 16 2.0 19.84 3 0.2 16.4 5,585 0.2 4,604 0.2
5 North America 19,820,470 14 3.1 487 7 0.8 175.28 28 2.1 359.9 20,648 2.1 42,395 2.1
6 Central & South America 20,426,078 14 3.2 511 7 0.8 28.95 5 0.4 56.6 6,753 0.4 13,206 0.4
7 Antarctic 14,000,000 10 2.2 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0
Total 146,036,621 100 7,458 100 629.91 100 109,959 14,744
GDP (Gross Domestic Product): the total market value of all final goods and services produced in a country in a given year, equal to the total consumer, investment and government
spending, plus the value of exports, minus the value of imports.
GDP PPP (Purchasing Power Parity) is the GDP converted to international dollars using purchasing power parity rates. An international dollar has the same purchasing power over GDP
as a U.S. dollar has in the United States. Purchasing power parities (PPPs) are the rates of currency conversion that eliminate the differences in price levels between countries.
1 Elaboration based on https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/AG.SRF.TOTL.K2?end=2016&start=1961
2 Elaboration based on https://www.eia.gov/beta/international/data/browser
TPES AND TFC (2019)
ACTIVITY COAL (EJ) CRUDE OIL (EJ) PETROLEUM PROD. (EJ) GAS (EJ) NUCLEAR (EJ) HYDRO (EJ) BIOFUELS & WASTE (EJ) OTHER (EJ) TOTAL (EJ) TOTAL (TWh)
PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
production 167.549 190.442 ‐ 143.639 30.461 15.195 56.539 13.513 617.338 171496.5
imports 35.644 102.662 56.858 42.995 ‐ ‐ 1.341 2.589 242.089 67252.32
exports ‐37.098 ‐102.077 ‐60.177 ‐44.313 ‐ ‐ World TPES
‐1.076 ‐2.606 ‐247.347 ‐68713
stock changes ‐3.72 ‐0.177 ‐0.167 ‐1.537 ‐ ‐ 168 000 TWh
0.009 ‐ ‐5.591 ‐1553.18
TOTAL PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY (TPES) 162.376 190.851 ‐3.486 140.784 30.461 15.195 56.813 13.496 606.490 168482.9
ENERGY TRANSFORMATION
Transfers ‐0.104 ‐9.823 11.218 ‐ ‐ ‐ 0‐ 1.291 358.6
Statistical diff. ‐1.85 0.839 ‐0.107 ‐0.881 ‐ ‐ 0.033 0.998 ‐0.968 ‐268.9
Electricity plants ‐72.727 ‐1.417 ‐5.727 ‐38.996 ‐30.315 ‐15.195 ‐5.156 71.087 ‐98.445 ‐27348.0
CHP plants ‐29.624 0 ‐0.575 ‐13.993 ‐0.146 ‐ Primary Energy to
‐3.364 26.012 ‐21.69 ‐6025.5
Heat plants
Blast furnaces
‐1.042
‐7.902 ‐
‐0.022 ‐0.359
‐0.006
‐2.552 ‐
‐0.001 ‐
‐
‐
Electricity ‐0.54
‐0.002 ‐
4.087 ‐0.428
‐7.912
‐118.9
‐2198.0
Gas works ‐0.706 ‐ ‐0.12 0.254 ‐ ‐ 27 000 TWh ‐0.04 ‐ ‐0.612 ‐170.0
Coke ovens ‐4.138 ‐ ‐0.086 ‐0.001 ‐ ‐ ~16% of TPES ‐0.005 ‐ ‐4.23 ‐1175.1
Oil refineries ‐ ‐182.111 178.099 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐4.012 ‐1114.5
Petchem. plants ‐ 1.501 ‐1.493 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 0.009 2.5
Liquefaction ‐0.953 0.892 ‐ ‐0.73 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐0.791 ‐219.7
Other transf. ‐0.012 0.562 ‐0.025 ‐0.999 ‐ ‐ ‐3.637 ‐0.024 ‐4.135 ‐1148.7
Energy ind. own use ‐3.433 ‐0.357 ‐8.949 ‐13.438 ‐ ‐ ‐0.68 ‐10.182 ‐37.039 ‐10289.4
Distribution losses ‐0.099 ‐0.317 ‐0.008 ‐1.041 ‐ ‐ ‐0.008 ‐8.082 ‐9.554 ‐2654.1
TOTAL TRANSFORMATION ‐122.59 ‐190.25 171.862 ‐72.378 ‐30.461 ‐15.2 ‐13.399 83.896 ‐188.516 ‐52369.7
FINAL USES World TFC
Industry sector 32.571 0.065 12.208 25.7 ‐ ‐ 9.895 40.54 120.979 33608.0
Transport sector 0.04 0 110.471 4.963 116 000‐ TWh
‐ 3.987 1.51 120.972 33606.0
Other sectors 5.101 0.001 17.752 29.591 ~ 69% of‐ TPES
‐ 29.533 55.342 137.319 38147.2
Non–energy use 2.074 0.533 27.945 8.152 ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ 38.703 10751.7
TOTAL FINAL CONSUMPTION (TFC) 39.786 0.599 168.376 68.406 43.415 97.392 417.973 116112.9
Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2019

Updated data on https://webstore.iea.org/key-world-energy-statistics-2019
WORLD ENERGY FINAL USE BY SECTOR (2019)
Total Value Non‐Energy
Energy Source Industry (%) Transport (%) Others (%)
(Mtoe) Use(%)
Coal 950 81.9% 0.1% 5.2% 12.8%
Oil 4,035 7.3% 65.4% 16.9% 10.5%
Natural Gas 1,634 37.6% 7.3% 11.9% 43.3%
Electricity 1,964 41.9% 1.8% 0.0% 56.3%
Source : https://webstore.iea.org/key-world-energy-statistics-2019

COMPARISON AMONG COUNTRIES (2019)
Country
Indicator Unit World China India Russia U.S. EU28
Value p.u. Value p.u. Value p.u. Value p.u. Value p.u. Value p.u.
Population M pers. 7,666 1.00 1,398 0.18 1,366 0.18 144 0.02 328 0.04 447 0.06
Surface km2 134,542,704 1.00 9,600,012 0.07 3,287,259 0.02 17,098,250 0.13 9,831,510 0.07 4,383,564 0.03
GDP G$ 2010 84,165 1.00 14,318 0.17 2,717 0.03 1,445 0.02 19,975 0.24 14,765 0.17
GDP PPP G$ 2010 127207 1.00 23,035 0.18 9,247 0.07 3,738 0.03 19,975 0.16 19,850 0.16
TPES Mtoe 14486 1.00 3,389 0.24 938 0.06 773 0.05 2,212 0.15 1,574 0.11
TFC Mtoe 9,983 1.00 2,093 0.21 630 0.06 521 0.05 1,588 0.16 1,142 0.11
En. Dependency % ‐ ‐ 21.7 ‐ 38.7 ‐ ‐91.2 ‐ ‐0.9 ‐ 60.0 ‐
En. intensity with GDP PJ/G$ 7.21 1.00 9.91 1.37 14.45 2 22.38 3.1 4.64 0.64 3.7 0.51
En. intensity with GDP PPP PJ/G$ 4.77 1.00 6.16 1.29 4.25 0.89 8.65 1.81 4.64 0.97 3.1 0.65
CO2 emiss. Mt 33,622 1.00 9,876 0.29 2,310 0.07 1,640 0.05 4,745 0.14 2,994 0.09
TPES = Total Primary Energy Supply, TFC = Total Final Consumption, Source: IEA Statistics – 2019 values

GLOBAL COMPARISON OF TPES AND TFC
TPES
4.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.2

World: times times times times times
14,486
China: U.S.: EU: India: Russia:

3,389 2,212 1,574 938 773
TFC
4.8 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.2

World: times times times times times
9,983
China: U.S.: EU: India: Russia:

2,093 1,588 1,142 630 521
Values in Mtoe (1 Mtoe = 0.041868 EJ = 11.63 TWh) Source: IEA Statistics – 2019 data

ENERGY TRADE AND ENERGY SECURITY

ENERGY EXPORTERS AND IMPORTERS
 Each country has energy needs that – to be satisfied – require the consumption of a given amount
of energy commodities (TFC)
 Consequently, the availability of the TPES is necessary
 The availability of internal energy resources is different for each country and for each commodity →
the relative weight of internal production and net import in the TPES composition can widely vary
among countries:
 Some countries (net exporters) have a large availability of one or more energy commodities
w.r.t. their internal demand → can sell a part of their energy production
 Other countries (net importers) have a scarcity of one or more energy commodities w.r.t. their
internal demand → have to buy a given amount of these commodities for ensuring the needed
TPES.
The purchased energy commodities depend on the energy mix of the country → at least in the
short- and mid-term are subject to a technological lock-in related to the already made
investments in infrastructures and end-use technologies
THE «RENTIER STATES»
 Energy exporters earn money from the sell of energy commodities

 Exporting countries could be also “rentier states”: in political-sciences rentier states are states which
obtain the whole or a significant part of their revenues from the rent of indigenous resources (like oil &
gas ones) to external clients. Examples: Saudi Arabia, UAE, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait, Qatar, Algeria, Libya
 Export of energy commodities corresponds to significant economic values, which impact on the GDP
of the country. Examples:
Russia: Saudi Arabia:

 Energy export: 194 G$  Energy export: 130 G$
 GDP: 1680 G$  GDP: 684 G$
→ 11.5% → 19.0%
Algeria: Turkmenistan:
 Energy export: 36 G$  Energy export: 6.5 G$
 GDP: 199 G$  GDP: 42 G$
→ 18.0% → 15.4%
Source: The Observatory of Economic Complexity (2017)

ENERGY IMPORT DEPENDENCY
Import dependency by commodity (%) ‐ 2016
Country Region Coal Oil Gas
 Countries characterised by scarcity of
Belgium Europe 94.7% 99.8% 100.0% energy commodities have to become
Italy
Portugal
Europe
Europe
97.5%
100.0%
93.2%
99.6%
91.8%
99.1%
importers, enhancing their energy import
Spain Europe 73.8% 99.0% 98.7% dependency
Germany Europe 49.5% 95.5% 88.6%
Netherlands Europe 91.0% 98.4% ‐32.8%
France Europe 93.4% 96.6% 99.0% 𝑇𝑃𝐸𝑆
𝐸𝑛. 𝑑𝑒𝑝𝑒𝑛𝑑𝑒𝑛𝑐𝑦
United Kingdom
Poland
Europe
Europe
50.8%
‐11.8%
22.4%
94.5%
46.6%
78.4%
𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑖𝑚𝑝𝑜𝑟𝑡 𝐵𝑢𝑛𝑘𝑒𝑟𝑠
Ukraine Europe 31.2% 17.9% 34.4%
Romania Europe 19.6% 67.7% 13.0%
Hungary Europe 34.1% 86.3% 78.9%
Slovakia Europe 83.2% 97.1% 92.9%
Austria Europe 95.5% 88.0% 85.8%  This creates trans-national and trans-
Israel Middle East 95.1% 97.3% 3.7% continental flows of energy commodities
Jordan Middle East 100.0% 99.2% 97.4%
Turkey Western Asia 61.0% 91.2% 98.3% between exporters and importers
Philippines Southeast Asia 57.2% 94.8% 0.0%
Thailand Southeast Asia 92.4% 61.7% 31.5%
Vietnam Southeast Asia 23.3% ‐66.8% 0.0%
Singapore Southeast Asia 100.0% 100.0% 99.6%
Pakistan South Asia 66.0% 66.5% 0.0%
Bangladesh South Asia 64.2% 80.1% 0.0% Negative values correspond to net export of the considered commodity
China Eastern Asia 6.5% 67.4% 32.9% Source: elaboration based on IEA data
ENERGY SUPPLY FLOWS
 The possibility of ensuring the flows of energy commodities between exporters and importers is related
to 2 conditions:
 Availability of energy infrastructures for transporting the commodities (oil and gas pipelines, power
lines, LNG liquefaction and regasification terminals, oil and coal ports, railways, roads, etc.) →
technological condition
 Political and commercial relationships between the buyer and the seller → geopolitical condition
 Energy supply is a key element for both importers and exporters:
 For importers: it involves economic competitiveness, also considering the relevant investments
globally made (in 2018, > 1.8 trillion USD, about 2.1% of world GDP), social aspects (in particular,
the affordability for citizens, in order to avoid “energy poverty” conditions) and environment (the type
of energy mix impacts on air quality and health of citizens)
 For exporters: because the sale of energy commodity contributes to the GDP formation → can
enhance the economic status; furthermore, it can increase their political weight in the global context
Strategical Interaction
ENERGY CORRIDORS
Oil pipelines 1 – Crude oil
Gas pipelines
CAPTIVE 2 – Refined petroleum products
Railways
Power lines
3a – Natural gas
Oil tanker 3b – Liquefied natural gas
LNG tanker
OPEN SEA 4 – Coal
Coal tanker
Biomass tanker
5 – Electricty
OTHER Road freight transport 6 – Biomass

DEFINITION OF ENERGY SECURITY
Energy supply corridors are a key element that impacts on the
ENERGY
SECURITY
level of a given country. Energy security can be defined as:
The capability of ensuring the availability of energy, according to its different

typologies and end uses, in the needed quantity, where it is requested, in a short,
mid- and long-term time horizon with fair and sustainable prices to match the
individual, national or global needs

ENERGY SECURITY – INTERNAL AND EXTERNAL FRONT
 Internal front:
involves the availability of internal resources of primary energy
commodities and the resilience of the energy system w.r.t.
potential failures of the internal transmission/distribution
infrastructures (oil & gas pipelines, power lines, etc.) and
transformation plants (LNG terminals, power plants, refineries)
 External front:
involves the supply of energy commodities from abroad → the
level of geopolitical security of the source countries, the
security of the energy corridors (both captive or open sea)
along their routes and the impacts of the unavailability of these
corridors
ENERGY
SECURITY
KINDS OF THREATS
 The security of energy supply is related to
 The functioning of energy infrastructures
 The geopolitical situation
 3 kinds of threats related to energy security can be identified
Extreme natural events (floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, wildfires, etc.)

NATURAL leading to disruptions or unavailability of the infrastructures and
requiring an evaluation of their criticality status and resilience
Unintentional technical failures causing the unavailability of the

ACCIDENTAL infrastructure. More frequent than natural and intentional threats, which
are low-frequency and (for intentional threats) unpredictable
Deliberate actions (sabotages, physical and cyber attacks by antagonistic

INTENTIONAL or terroristic groups) against an infrastructure chosen as relevant target or
international geopolitical tensions impacting on the energy supply
AN APPROACH FOR ASSESSING
GEOPOLITICAL ENERGY SECURITY
Assessment of Geopolitical Risk
The energy flows can thus be subject to:
 Physical risk:
the entire flow or a part of it can be lost as a
consequence of a physical
failure/unavailability of the related
infrastructure
 Geopolitical risk:
the entire flow or a part of it can be lost as a
consequence political tensions among
countries involved in the supply, even if the
related infrastructures are properly
functioning
Expected supply = Total energy flow – Amount at risk

ISSUES WITH THE CURRENT
ENERGY PARADIGM

THE CRUCIAL ROLE OF ENERGY
 Energy is crucial for the whole world population, from survival to welfare, for ensuring the
fulfilment of the non-physiological human needs, for improving the quality of life of people and
for ensuring the evolution of humanity and also for helping to satisfy basic needs
 However, with the current paradigm based on fossil fuels, several issues are on the table
and have to be addressed
“People need clean air to breathe, safe water to drink, healthy food to eat, energy to
produce and transport goods, and natural resources that provide the raw materials for all
these services”
(UN Environment Assembly)
-----
“Although energy itself is not a basic human need, it is critical for the fulfilment of all
needs. Lack of access to diverse and affordable energy services means that the basic
needs of many people are not being met”
UN Secretary – WEHAB Initiative

THE LIMITS OF THE CURRENT ENERGY PARADIGM
Equity
Energy accounts for 2/3 of global
GHG emissions
+90% of air pollution is due to

fossil fuel combustion
About 1Bn people do not have ENERGY

access to electricity TRILEMMA
High energy dependency for

many countries (e.g. Italy 76.3%)
Sustainability Security

SUSTAINABILITY AND HEALTH ISSUES

CLIMATE CHANGES ‐ CAUSES
 The strong increase in the anthropogenic
greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions w.r.t.
the pre-industrial levels has led to
atmospheric concentrations of CO2, CH4
and N2O that have not been reached in the
last 800,000 years
 Extremely high probability that this could

be the major cause of the global warming
observed since the mid of the 20th century
 The estimated contribution of

anthropogenic forcings (in
particular, GHG emissions) is
coherent with the observed warming
 Experimental data are coherent
with model results only if
anthropogenic forcings are
considered
Source: IPCC - Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS
In 2018 fossil fuels accounted for Global CO2 Emissions - 2018

81.2% of the global TPES
15%
United States
32% EU
Fossil fuels are responsible for 9% Russia
most of GHG emissions (74%) China
5%
India
Total CO2 emissions (2018):
3% Japan
33.5 Gt 7% Rest of the World
29%
(+63.4% w.r.t. 1990 value)
6 countries or areas accounted for about 68% of the overall CO2 emissions
These countries are requested to implement particular efforts in pursuing strategies for mid-/long-
term decarbonisation
GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS TREND BY COMMODITY

GLOBAL CO2 EMISSIONS TREND BY REGION

CO2 ATMOSPHERIC CONCENTRATION
February 28th, 2022 419.28 ppm

CARBON INTENSITY OF THE ECONOMY (2019)
Russia: 0.43
EU-28: 0.13
United States: 0.22 China: 0.42
India: 0.25
Africa: 0.20
Brazil: 0.13
Australia: 0.32
World: 0.26
Source: IEA Statistics
𝐂𝐎𝟐 𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐤𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐎𝟐

𝐂𝐚𝐫𝐛𝐨𝐧 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐭𝐲 𝐤𝐠⁄𝐔𝐒𝐃
𝐆𝐃𝐏 𝐏𝐏𝐏 𝟐𝟎𝟏𝟓 𝐔𝐒𝐃

CLIMATE CHANGES ‐ EFFECTS
GREENHOUSE GASES (GHG) GLOBAL WARMING
 Carbon dioxide (CO2):  Global land and ocean

by combustion of fossil fuels, surface temperature:
biomass and solid wastes +0.85 [0.65÷1.06] °C
and by chemical reactions over the period 1880-
(f.i. cement manufacturing) 2012
 Methane (CH4):  Arctic sea-ice extent:
Lead to
by coal, natural gas and oil -3.5÷4.1% per decade
industry, by organic wastes over the period 1979-
and by agriculture 2012
 Nitrous oxide (N2O):
 Global mean sea level:
by agriculture and industrial
+0.19 [0.17÷0.21] m
sector and by fossil fuels and
over the period 1901-
solid wastes combustion
2010
 Fluorinated gases (HFC,
PFC, SF6, NF3): Source: IPCC - Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report
by industrial processes CLIMATE CHANGES

AIR POLLUTANT
Primary:
Natural origin (f.i. wildfires and volcanoes) or output of anthropic activities:
 Sulphur oxides (SOX), especially SO2
 Nitrogen oxides (NOX)
 Particulate matter (PM), mixture of liquid droplets and particles, classified according to their
dimensions (e.g. PM2.5 → 2.5 µm, PM10 → 10 µm)
 Volatile organic compounds (VOC), hydrocarbons and chemicals with high volatility and
evaporation capability
 Carbon monoxide (CO), from incomplete combustion processes
 Ammonia (NH3)
Secondary:
Derive from the primary ones through reactions in the atmosphere. Among them:
 Ozone (O3), by the reaction between hydrocarbons and NOX in presence of sunlight
GLOBAL POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
Global pollutant emissions from energy sector (2015)

SO2 NOx PM2.5
Country
Mt p.u. Mt p.u. Mt p.u.
China 22 0.27 23 0.21 9 0.26
U.S. 4 0.05 13 0.12 1 0.03
EU 3 0.04 7 0.07 1 0.03
Russia 4 0.05 4 0.04 1 0.03
India 9 0.11 7 0.07 6 0.17
Middle East 4 0.05 6 0.06 1 0.03
Africa 6 0.07 6 0.06 8 0.23
Southeast Asia 4 0.05 6 0.06 3 0.09
Latin America 3 0.04 6 0.06 2 0.06
World 81 1.00 107 1.00 35 1.00
Source: IEA - WEO Energy and Air Pollution Special Report

POLLUTANT EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY AND SECTOR
World: 81 Mt
World: 35 Mt
World: 107 Mt

AIR POLLUTION – CAUSES AND EFFECTS
The use of energy commodities is directly or
indirectly responsible for the majority of the
pollutant emissions:
 >99% for SO2, NOX

 >90% for CO
 >80% for PM2.5
 >60% for VOC
Air pollution leads to:
 Health
 Economic and
 Environmental effects

ENERGY‐RELATED POLLUTANT EMISSIONS
 With the exception

of ammonia, the
majority of pollutant
emissions from
human activities are
energy related

AIR POLLUTION – HEALTH EFFECTS
Deaths attributed to air pollution (2012) Years of life lost attributed to air pollution (2012)
Households: heating and cooking with biomass; lighting with kerosene

Outdoors: power generation and transport sector
Health effects:
 PM → lung cancer, chronic pulmonary and heart diseases
 Household air pollution → > 50% of premature deaths (children < 5 y.o.) due to pneumonia
 O3, NO2, SO2 → asthma, bronchial and lung disease
 Air pollution → tuberculosis, throat cancers, cataracts, low birth weight
AIR POLLUTION – HEALTH EFFECTS (DISTRIBUTION)
Share of deaths from outdoor air pollution, 2017 Share of deaths from indoor air pollution, 2017
6% of global 3% of global
deaths attributed Italy 4.8% in deaths attributed Italy 0.06%
to OUTDOOR air 2017 to INDOOR air in 2017
pollution pollution

AIR POLLUTION – HEALTH EFFECTS (EVOLUTION)
The number of deaths due to outdoor air pollution has increased in many countries
(mainly not developed/developing countries)
Outdoor air pollution deaths in 1990 vs. 2017

The global number of deaths from
outdoor air pollution has increased
Higher in
1990
USA
The scatterplot shows the comparison
between the number of deaths from
outdoor air pollution in 1990 (y-axis)
and the number in 2017 (x-axis).
Higher in
2017  Countries which lie above the line had
a higher number of deaths in 1990;
 Countries which lie below the line had
a higher number in 2017

AIR POLLUTION – HEALTH EFFECTS (ITALY)
Pollutant Health Effects 2005 2010 Deaths due to PM 2.5 in 2010 Deaths due to NO2 in 2010

Exposure of population (μg/m3) 20.1 15.8
PM 2.5 Deaths 34552 21524
Months of life lost 9.7 5.5
NO2
Deaths 23387 11993
O3
Deaths 1707 1858

AIR POLLUTION – URBAN SCALE RELEVANCE
 Air pollution is particularly relevant at urban scale:
Deaths per 100,000 persons due to
household and ambient air pollution (2016)
PM Concentration in several World Urban Areas
300
250
PM Concentration (μg/m3)
200
150
100
50
Source: WHO, Joint effect of household and ambient air pollution, 2018
City
PM10 PM2.5 WHO Guideline PM10 WHO Guideline PM2.5

This issue is particularly relevant for mega-cities
Source: PoliTO elaboration based on WHO Ambient Air Quality Database, 2018 located in low-/medium-income countries
PM2.5 EXPOSURE BY COUNTRY
 The PM (and, more in general, the air pollutant) exposure is particularly relevant in low-
/medium-income countries
 The PM exposure level in Italy is higher than the average of the European Union
Mean annual exposure ‐ Country
100
90,87
90
80
The World Bank, Open Data, 2017

70
60
PM2.5 (μg/m3)
52,66
50 45,53
40
28,46
30
20 16,75 16,16
13,47
10 7,41
0
China European Union India Italy Russian Federation United States Uzbekistan World
SOCIO-ECONOMIC ISSUES

ENERGY INEQUALITY
Source: Electrify Italy; PoliTO, MIT, Enel Foundation
Per capita final consumption Gini index
The Gini index measures the extent to which the distribution of a variable deviates from a perfectly
equal distribution (0 = perfect equal distribution; 1 = perfect unequal distribution)

THE GINI INDEX
 The Gini index has been developed for measuring the
distance between a country’s distribution of income among
individuals and a perfectly equal distribution
 A Lorenz curve plots the cumulative percentage of total
income received against the cumulative number of recipients,
from lowest to highest incomes.
50%  The Gini index is defined as the area (A) between the Lorentz
curve and the line of perfect equality (45° line) divided by the
total area (A+B) under the line of equality  G = A/(A+B) =
2A = 1-2B
 G is equal to 0 in case of perfect equality and 1 in case of
15% perfect inequality
 Lorentz curve and Gini index can be also used to estimate
50% the distribution of energy consumption among the
individuals of a certain country or the distribution of energy
consumption among different countries
With a perfectly equal With the unequal distribution
distribution, 50% of population described by the Lorentz curve, 50%
holds 50% of income of population holds 15% of income
THE GINI INDEX
 Since the Lorenz curve it is not always completely available as continuous function, but only some points of it
are available, and therefore interpolation is requested, a simple way for calculating the Gini index is to
approximate the area B under the Lorentz curve as the sum of the areas of trapezoids among the known points:
1
A B
2
1
B · 𝑌 𝑌 · 𝑋 𝑋
2
Yk
A 0.5 0.5 · ∑ 𝑌 𝑌 · 𝑋 𝑋
Yk‐1 G
A B 0.5
Xk‐1 Xk 1 𝑌 𝑌 · 𝑋 𝑋

ELECTRICITY ACCESS
The availability (and affordability) of electricity is strongly related to income: electricity access is low in
poorer countries, and increases as income increases. In 2016, 940 million (13% of the world) did not
have access to electricity
Number of people without access to electricity (1990-2016)

Number of people without access to electricity, 2016

ELECTRICITY ACCESS VS. GDP PER CAPITA
Access to electricity vs. GDP per capita, 2016

Higher GDP: > 80% of population have
Focus on low-
income countries access to electricity
Lower GDP: < 50% of population have
access to electricity
FOSSIL CONSUMPTION VS. GDP PER CAPITA
Fossil fuel consumption (MWh) per capita, 2019 Qatar, United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia,
Oman (high GDP per capita): highest
fossil fuels consumption per capita
Per capita fossil fuel consumption (MWh) vs GDP per capita (2017)
India and China (low GDP per capita): lower

fossil fuels consumption per capita than Italy

ENERGY INTENSITY VS. CARBON INTENSITY

SECURITY ISSUES

FIRST NOTION OF ENERGY
EU: 58.2 %
Italy: 76.3 %
2018 data

FOSSIL FUELS RESERVES AND DEPLETION
Classification of fossil reserves
The ratio between proved reserves and
 Proved reserves: current production provides a measure of the
≥ 90% probability that the resources are remaining time availability of fossil fuels
recoverable in a profitable way
 Probable reserves:
Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2020
Probability that the resources are recoverable
R/P ratio [years] (2019)
in a profitable way ranging between 50% and
90% Country Oil Gas Coal
North America 27.2 13.3 367.0
 Possible reserves:
South and Central America 143.8 46.0 152.0
Probability that the resources are recoverable
Europe 11.6 14.2 244.0
in a profitable way ranging between 10% and
50% Russia and Central Asia 27.3 75.8 338.0
Middle East 75.3 108.7 ‐
1P reserves = proved reserves Africa 41.0 62.7 57.0
Asia Pacific 16.4 26.3 77.0
2P reserves = 1P + probable reserves
World 49.9 49.8 132.0
3P reserves = 2P + possible reserves
FOSSIL FUELS RESERVES – DISTRIBUTION
Relevant amount of fossil reserves are located in politically unstable countries
Oil proved reserves Natural gas proved reserves Coal proved reserves

share of trillion cubic share of R/P ratio
109 barrels R/P ratio million tons share of total R/P ratio (year)
total meter total (year)
China 25.96 1.50% 18.19 8.40 4.47% 43.30 143197.00 13.33% 36.70
India 4.54 0.26% 16.11 1.30 0.69% 55.60 111052.00 10.34% 146.80
Iraq 145.02 8.37% 96.32 3.50 1.86% 336.30 ‐ ‐ ‐
Italy 0.60 0.03% 14.71 0.03 0.02% 10.90 ‐ ‐ ‐
Russian Federation 107.80 6.22% 27.61 37.40 19.88% 58.60 162166.00 15.10% 407.15
Saudi Arabia 297.53 17.17% 73.64 6.00 3.19% 53.70 ‐ ‐ ‐
US 68.76 3.97% 11.40 12.60 6.70% 13.80 248941.00 23.18% 513.59
Total Africa 125.11 7.22% 49.80 12.90 6.86% 55.70 ‐ ‐ ‐
Total Asia Pacific 45.16 2.61% 16.62 16.60 8.83% 25.40 459750.00 42.80% 78.20
Total Europe 13.63 0.79% 10.40 3.20 1.70% 14.50 137240.00 12.78% 299.08
Total Middle East 835.94 48.25% 82.56 75.80 40.30% 110.40 ‐ ‐ ‐
Total Middle East & Africa 961.05 55.48% 132.36 88.70 47.16% 166.10 16040.00 1.49% 59.59
Total World 1732.37 100.00% 53.55 188.10 100.00% 48.80 1074108.00 100.00% 139.22
BP (2020), Statistical Review of World Energy

COUNTRY RISK INDEXES
Country risk indexes based on

the average of the 6 components
of the Worldwide Governance
Indicators (WGI) from The World
Bank:
o Voice and accountability
o Political Stability and
Absence of
Violence/Terrorism
o Government Effectiveness
o Regulatory Quality
o Rule of Law
o Control of Corruption
0 Lower risk
100 Higher risk
2021 data
THE NEED FOR A CHANGE OF PARADIGM
Equity
The issues related to the

energy trilemma require an
FARE CLIC PER MODIFICARE LO STILE DEL TITOLO
undeferrable change of
paradigm at global level, with a
transition of the energy
systems towards a strong
ENERGY reduction (and, at the end, a
TRILEMMA zeroing) of the role played by
fossil fuels, and a shift towards
a renewables-based system
Sustainability Security

L2 - Issues With The Current Energy Paradigm

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E‐TRANSITION,

 Energy flows: from sources to sinks

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 2

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 3

Environmental implications, related to the energy mix, to the contribution of

Geopolitical implications, related to the composition and diversification of

Impacts on households and citizens in terms of incidence of energy

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 4

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 5

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 6

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 7

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 9

Production Transmission Transformation

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 12

Size1 Population2 Energy Consumption2 Energy Consumption per capita GDP PPP2 GDP PPP/Capita

km2 % pu M % pu Quadrillion Btu % pu Mbtu/person Billion $2010 pu $/person pu

7 Antarctic 14,000,000 10 2.2 0 0 0.0 0 0 0.0 0.0 0 0.0 0 0.0

Total 146,036,621 100 7,458 100 629.91 100 109,959 14,744

Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2019

Coal 950 81.9% 0.1% 5.2% 12.8%

Oil 4,035 7.3% 65.4% 16.9% 10.5%

Natural Gas 1,634 37.6% 7.3% 11.9% 43.3%

Electricity 1,964 41.9% 1.8% 0.0% 56.3%

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 16

En. Dependency % ‐ ‐ 21.7 ‐ 38.7 ‐ ‐91.2 ‐ ‐0.9 ‐ 60.0 ‐

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 17

4.3 1.5 1.4 1.7 1.2

China: U.S.: EU: India: Russia:

4.8 1.3 1.4 1.8 1.2

China: U.S.: EU: India: Russia:

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 18

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 19

 Energy exporters earn money from the sell of energy commodities

Russia: Saudi Arabia:

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 21

Oil pipelines 1 – Crude oil

Oil tanker 3b – Liquefied natural gas

OTHER Road freight transport 6 – Biomass

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 24

Energy supply corridors are a key element that impacts on the

level of a given country. Energy security can be defined as:

The capability of ensuring the availability of energy, according to its different

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 25

Extreme natural events (floods, tsunamis, earthquakes, wildfires, etc.)

Unintentional technical failures causing the unavailability of the

Deliberate actions (sabotages, physical and cyber attacks by antagonistic

Expected supply = Total energy flow – Amount at risk

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 29

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 30

+90% of air pollution is due to

About 1Bn people do not have ENERGY

High energy dependency for

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 31

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 32

 Extremely high probability that this could

 The estimated contribution of

In 2018 fossil fuels accounted for Global CO2 Emissions - 2018

Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2021

Source: IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2021

February 28th, 2022 419.28 ppm

E. F.Bompard – E-Transition, Sustainability and Economics- 37

𝐂𝐎𝟐 𝐞𝐦𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 𝐤𝐠 𝐨𝐟 𝐂𝐎𝟐