‫ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﺻﻌﺏ‬

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‫ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺗﻅﺭ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺷﻬﺩ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﺻﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻲ ﺁﻭﺍﺧﺭ ﺍﻟﺷﻬﺭ ﺍﻟﺟﺎﺭﻱ ‪،‬ﻟﻘﺎء‬
‫ﺗﺷﺎﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻱ ﻭ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ‪ ،‬ﺑﺭﻋﺎﻳﺔ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻫﺩﻓﻬﺎ ﻭﺿﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﺩﺧﻝ ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫)ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺧﻠﻔﻳﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻟﻣﻘﺩﻣﺎﺕ (‬

‫ﻓﻲ ﻅﻝ ﻏﻳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﻳﺔ ﻟﺣﻝ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻁﺎﺣﻧﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺩﻣﺕ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻟﻣﻸ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻔﺭﺍﻍ ‪،‬ﻣﺳﺗﻧﺩﺓ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬
‫ـ ﻋﻼﻗﺗﻬﺎ ﺑﺎﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻘﺎﺋﻡ ‪.‬‬
‫ـ ﻋﻼﻗﺗﻬﺎ ﺑﺑﻌﺽ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ـ ﺍﺳﺗﻔﺎﺩﺗﻬﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﺥ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻟﻣﻲ ﺍﻟﻘﻠﻕ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﺏ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻭﻟﺋﻥ ﻟﻡ َ‬
‫ﺗﻠﻕ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ ﺍﻋﺗﺭﺍﺿﺎ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺑﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻭﺍﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻋﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺑﺄﻁﺭﺍﻓﻬﺎ ﻛﺎﻓﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻡ ﺗﻌﻠﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺗﻬﺎ ﻟﻬﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺭﺩﺓ ‪ ،‬ﻏﻳﺭ‬
‫ﺍﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻹﻋﺗﺭﺍﺽ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺑﻲ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻥ ﺗﺭﻛﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺳﻌﻭﺩﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻻ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ ﺃﻥ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ‬
‫ﺣﺻﻠﺕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺿﻭء ﺍﻷﺧﺿﺭ ﻣﻥ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ‪،‬ﻭﻟﻛﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻅﻝ ﻏﻳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺍﺕ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻥ ﺿﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺗﻌﺛﺭ ﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺳﺗﻳﻔﺎﻥ ﺩﻱ ﻣﺳﺗﻭﺭﺓ ‪ ،‬ﺗﻘﺩﻣﺕ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﺧﻁﻭﺓ ﺇﻟﻰ‬
‫ﺍﻷﻣﺎﻡ ‪،‬ﻓﻠﻡ ﺗﺻﻁﺩﻡ ﺑﺈﻋﺗﺭﺍﺽ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﻋﻣﺔ ﻟﻠﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻭﻗﺎﺋﻊ(‬ ‫) ﻣﻌﻁﻳﺎﺕ‬
‫ﻭﻓﻘﺎ ﻟﺗﺻﺭﻳﺣﺎﺕ ﻭﺯﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﺧﺎﺭﺟﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﺳﻳﺭﻏﻲ ﻻﻓﺭﻭﻑ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ‬
‫ﺗﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ ﻣﻘﺭﺭﺍﺕ ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ " ﺟﻧﻳﻑ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ" ‪ ،‬ﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻥ ﻳﺷﺎﺭﻙ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻠﻘﺎء ﺃﻻ‬
‫ﻳﻔﺭﺽ ﺷﺭﻭﻁﺎ ﻣﺳﺑﻘﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﻫﻲ " ﻟﻘﺎء ﺗﺷﺎﻭﺭﻱ" ‪ ،‬ﺑﻣﻌﻧﻰ ﺃﻧﻪ ﻟﻥ ﻳﻛﻭﻥ‬
‫ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭﺍ ﺗﻔﺎﻭﺿﻳﺎ ﻳﻧﺗﻬﻲ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﺣﺩﺩﺓ ﻭﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ ﺗﻠﺯﻡ ﺍﻷﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﺑﻪ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺑﻧﺎء ﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ‪ ،‬ﻋﻣﻠﺕ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ‪:‬‬
‫ـ‪ :1‬ﺇﻗﻧﺎﻉ ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻱ ﺑﺈﺭﺳﺎﻝ ﻭﻓﺩ ﻳﻣﺛﻠﻪ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺍﻟﻠﻘﺎء‪.‬‬
 ‫ـ ‪ :2‬ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ ﺩﻋﻭﺍﺕ ﺇﻟﻰ ﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﻳﻥ ﺳﻭﺭﻳﻳﻥ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﺷﺧﺻﻳﺔ ﻭﻟﻳﺱ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﺣﺯﺑﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫ـ‪ :3‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺁﻟﻳﺔ ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﻭﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﻟﻠﻘﺎء ﺍﻟﺗﺷﺎﻭﺭﻱ‪.‬‬

‫)ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺿﻌﻑ(‬

‫ﻳﺣﻣﻝ ﺍﻟﻠﻘﺎء ﺍﻟﻣﻔﺗﺭﺽ ﻋﻘﺩﻩ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﺍﻟﻌﺩﻳﺩ ﻣﻥ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﻭﺍﻟﺿﻌﻑ‪،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻣﺎ ﻳﺟﻌﻠﻪ‬
‫ﻗﺎﺑﻼ ﻟﻠﺟﺩﻝ ﻭﺍﻟﻧﻘﺎﺵ ﻣﻥ ﻗﺑﻝ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻑ ﺃﻭ ﺫﺍﻙ ‪،‬ﻭﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺗﺣﺩﻳﺩ ﺫﻟﻙ ﻣﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺍﻟﺗﺎﻟﻲ‪:‬‬

‫‪:‬‬ ‫ـ ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ‬

‫‪ :1‬ﻣﺣﺎﻭﻟﺔ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﺍﻹﻣﺳﺎﻙ ﺑﺄﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﻭﺇﺑﻌﺎﺩﻫﺎ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻹﺳﺗﻘﻁﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﺧﻠﻳﺟﻲ‬
‫ﻭﺍﻟﻐﺭﺑﻲ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :2‬ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ ﺑﺣﺩ ﺫﺍﺗﻬﺎ ﺃﻭﺟﺩﺕ ﺑﻠﺑﻠﺔ ﺩﺍﺧﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﺑﻳﻥ ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻙ‬
‫ﻭﺭﺍﻓﺽ ﻭﻣﺗﺣﻔﻅ ‪،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻟﺻﺎﻟﺢ ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﻣﻥ ﺃﻭﺭﺍﻕ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ" ﺟﻧﻳﻑ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ" ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺗﺭﻑ ﺑﻪ ﺩﻭﻟﻳﺎ ﻭﻣﻥ ﺍﻷﻣﻡ‬ ‫‪ :3‬ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺭﺩﺓ ﺗﻘﻭﻡ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﺳﺎﺱ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺗﺣﺩﺓ ﺑﺎﻟﺫﺍﺕ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :4‬ﺗﺄﻛﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﺣﺿﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺳﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﻭﺃﻥ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻻ ﺗﺗﺧﻠﻰ ﻋﻥ ﻣﻭﻗﻌﻬﺎ ﺍﻹﺳﺗﺭﺍﺗﻳﺟﻲ‬
‫ﻓﻲ ﺳﻭﺭﻳﺎ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :5‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻋﺗﺭﺍﺽ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺏ ﻭﺩﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺧﻠﻳﺞ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :6‬ﻣﻭﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ ﻭﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺣﺿﻭﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :7‬ﺍﺳﺗﻐﻼﻝ ﻏﻳﺎﺏ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﻗﻑ ﺍﻷﻣﻳﺭﻛﻲ ﺍﻟﺿﺑﺎﺑﻲ ﻏﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﺣﺎﺳﻡ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :8‬ﺍﻟﺗﺭﻛﻳﺯ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻣﻛﺎﻓﺣﺔ ﺍﻹﺭﻫﺎﺏ ﻭﻫﻭ ﺧﻁﺎﺏ ﻳﻠﻘﻰ ﺻﺩﺍﻩ ﺍﻹﻳﺟﺎﺑﻲ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻲ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﺿﻌﻑ ‪:‬‬ ‫ـ ﺛﺎﻧﻳﺎ ‪ :‬ﻧﻘﺎﻁ‬

‫‪ :1‬ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻭﺍﺕ ﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﻳﻥ ﺑﺻﻔﺔ ﺷﺧﺻﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :2‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺿﻊ ﺁﻟﻳﺔ ﻟﻠﺣﻭﺍﺭ ﺃﻭ ﺍﻟﻠﻘﺎء ‪.‬‬

 ‫‪ :3‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ ﻛﻝ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﺍﻟﻌﻠﻣﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺣﻭﺍﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :4‬ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻟﻣﺗﻁﺭﻓﺔ ﻣﺛﻝ " ﺍﻟﻧﺻﺭﺓ" ﻭ "ﺩﺍﻋﺵ" ﻭﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻳﺔ ﺍﻷﺧﺭﻯ ﻣﺛﻝ "‬
‫ﺍﻟﺟﺑﻬﺔ ﺍﻹﺳﻼﻣﻳﺔ" ﻭﺟﻣﺎﻋﺔ ﺍﻹﺧﻭﺍﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﻠﻣﻳﻥ "‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻲ ﺗﻣﺳﻙ ﺑﻣﺳﺎﺣﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﺳﻌﺔ ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ‪ ،‬ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :5‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﻭﺟﻭﺩ ﺇﺟﻣﺎﻉ ﺩﻭﻟﻲ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻣﻥ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻹﻋﺗﺭﺍﺽ ﻋﻠﻳﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫‪ :6‬ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻯ ﺍﻹﻗﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺛﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻣﺛﻝ ﺗﺭﻛﻳﺎ ﻭﺍﻟﺳﻌﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻭﻗﻁﺭ‪ ،‬ﺟﻣﺎﻋﺎﺗﻬﺎ‬
‫ﻏﻳﺭ ﻣﺩﻋﻭﺓ ﻟﻠﺣﻭﺍﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :7‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺣﺩ ﻭﺗﺷﻛﻳﻝ ﻭﻓﺩ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ ﻭ ﺭﺅﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﺣﺩﺓ ‪،‬ﻣﻣﺎ ﻳﻌﻧﻲ‬
‫ﺍﻹﺧﺗﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺳﺑﻕ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺃﻱ ﻧﺗﻳﺟﺔ ﻟﻭ ﺧﺭﺟﺕ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺣﻭﺍﺭ ‪.‬‬

‫ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ(‬ ‫) ﺇﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ‬
‫ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻟﺭﻏﻡ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﺳﺎﺑﻕ ﺑﻳﻥ ﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﺓ ﻭﻧﻘﺎﻁ ﺍﻟﺿﻌﻑ ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﺍﻷﻭﻝ ‪،‬ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺷﺄﻧﻪ ﺃﻥ ﻳُﻌﻁﻲ ﺃﻣﻼ ﻹﺣﺗﻣﺎﻻﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺇﻥ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﻣﺎ ﺯﺍﻝ ﺑﻌﻳﺩﺍ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻓﺎﻟﻣﻭﺍﻗﻑ ﺍﻟﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ ﻭﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﻳﻣﻛﻥ ﺃﻥ ﺗﺄﺗﻲ ﺗﺑﺎﻋﺎ ﺑﻌﺩ ﺍﻧﺗﻬﺎء ﺃﻋﻣﺎﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻳﻣﺎ ﻟﻭ‬
‫ﺍﻧﻌﻘﺩ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺣﺟﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﺷﺎﺭﻛﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﺎ ﺳﻳﺳﻔﺭ ﻋﻧﻪ ‪،‬ﺳﻳﺣﺩﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﻭﺍﻗﻑ ﻣﻧﻪ ‪،‬ﻭﻋﻠﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻧﺟﺎﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻭ ﺇﺧﻔﺎﻕ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻳﺧﺿﻊ ﻟﻠﻣﻌﺎﻳﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﺗﺎﻟﻳﺔ ‪:‬‬

‫ـ ﺃﻭﻻ ‪ :‬ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻳﺭ ﺍﻟﻧﺟﺎﺡ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ‪ :‬ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺣﺷﺩ ﺃﻛﺑﺭ ﻋﺩﺩ ﻣﻣﻛﻥ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﻳﻥ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺏ‪ :‬ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺑﻧﺎء ﺟﺳﻭﺭ ﺍﻟﺛﻘﺔ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﻳﻥ ﻭﺍﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ‪:‬ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺳﻭﻳﻕ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻭﺟﻌﻠﻪ ﻣﻁﻠﺑﺎ ﺳﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﻭﺩﻭﻟﻳﺎ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺩ‪ :‬ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺩ ﺍﻗﺗﺭﺍﺣﺎﺕ ﻭﻣﺷﺎﺭﻳﻊ ﺣﻠﻭﻝ ﺗﺭﺿﻲ ﺍﻟﺟﻣﻳﻊ‪.‬‬
‫ﻩ‪ :‬ﻗﺩﺭﺓ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻛﺳﺏ ﺛﻘﺔ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﺃﻭ ﻣﻥ ﻳﺷﺎﺭﻙ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ‪.‬‬

‫ـ ﻣﻌﺎﻳﻳﺭ ﺍﻹﺧﻔﺎﻕ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺃ‪ :‬ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻡ ﺗﻌﺩ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﻣﺣﻠﻳﺔ ﻭﻣﻔﺎﺗﻳﺢ ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﻟﻳﺱ ﺑﻳﺩ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻭﺣﺩﻫﺎ‪.‬‬
 ‫ﺏ‪ :‬ﺇﺫﺍ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻟﺩﻯ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻗﻧﺎﻋﺔ ﺑﺎﻥ ﺗﺣﻝ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻟﻭﺣﺩﻫﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻓﺫﺍﻙ ﺃﻭﻝ ﺍﻹﺧﻔﺎﻕ ‪.‬‬
‫ﺝ‪ :‬ﻓﻲ ﺣﺎﻝ ﻋﺩﻡ ﺗﻌﺎﻣﻝ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺣﻘﺎﺋﻕ ﻣﻳﺩﺍﻧﻳﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺍﻷﺭﺽ ‪ ،‬ﺃﻱ ﺃﻥ ﺳﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﻟﻡ ﺗﻌﺩ‬
‫ﻛﻣﺎ ﻛﺎﻧﺕ ﻗﺑﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ‪.2011‬‬

‫ﺩ‪ :‬ﺗﺭﺑﺹ ﻗﻭﻯ ﺇﻗﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ ﻭﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ ﺑﺎﻟﻣﺑﺎﺩﺭﺓ ﺍﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺔ ﺑﻬﺩﻑ ﺇﻓﺷﺎﻟﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫ﻩ‪ :‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﺻﺩﻭﺭ ﻧﺗﺎﺋﺞ ﻣﻘﻧﻌﺔ ﻋﻥ ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ‪.‬‬

‫) ﺗﺭﺟﻳﺣﺎﺕ (‬

‫ﺇﻥ ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﻳﺗﺄﺭﺟﺢ ﺑﻳﻥ ﺍﻹﻧﻌﻘﺎﺩ ﻭﻋﺩﻡ ﺍﻹﻧﻌﻘﺎﺩ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﻧﻌﻘﺎﺩﻩ ﺭﻫﻥ ﺑﻣﻭﺍﻓﻘﺔ ﺃﻁﺭﺍﻑ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻭﺇﺻﺭﺍﺭ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻓﻳﻣﺎ ﺃﻋﻠﻥ " ﺍﻹﺋﺗﻼﻑ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻲ " ﺃﻧﻪ ﻟﻥ‬
‫ﻳﺣﺿﺭ‪ ،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺫ ﺍﻟﺧﻁﻳﺏ ﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻛﺎﻥ ﺭﺋﻳﺳﺎ ﻟﻺﺋﺗﻼﻑ ﻭﺍﻧﺳﺣﺏ ﻣﻧﻪ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻣﻌﺭﻭﻑ‬
‫ﺑﺷﺧﺻﻳﺗﻪ ﺍﻟﺣﻭﺍﺭﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻬﻭ ﻟﻥ ﻳﺣﺿﺭ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ ﻓﺈﻥ " ﺗﻳﺎﺭ ﺑﻧﺎء ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﺔ " ﻣﻥ‬
‫ﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺧﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻟﻥ ﻳﺣﺿﺭ ‪ ،‬ﺗﺑﻘﻰ "ﻫﻳﺋﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻧﺳﻳﻕ ﺍﻟﻭﻁﻧﻳﺔ " ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺧﻝ ‪،‬ﻭﻛﺫﻟﻙ "‬
‫ﺟﺑﻬﺔ ﺍﻟﺗﻐﻳﻳﺭ ﻭﺍﻟﺗﺣﺭﻳﺭ " ﺑﻘﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﻗﺩﺭﻱ ﺟﻣﻳﻝ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻣﻭﺟﻭﺩ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﺃﺻﻼ‪،‬‬
‫ﺑﺎﻹﺿﺎﻓﺔ ﺇﻟﻰ ﺷﺧﺻﻳﺎﺕ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﻳﺔ ﻭﺛﻘﺎﻓﻳﺔ ﺃﺧﺭﻯ‪،‬ﺃﻗﻝ ﺗﻣﺛﻳﻼ‪ ،‬ﻭﺍﺳﺗﻧﺎﺩﺍ ﺍﻟﻰ ﺫﻟﻙ ‪،‬ﻳﻣﻛﻥ‬
‫ﻗﻭﻝ ﺍﻵﺗﻲ ‪:‬‬

‫ﺗﺭﺗﺳﻡ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ " ﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ " ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﻋﻭﺍﺋﻕ ﺃﻫﻣﻬﺎ‪:‬‬

‫ـ ‪ :1‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻣﻝ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻋﻘﺩ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﺑﻣﻥ ﺣﺿﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺃﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺋﻕ ‪.‬‬

‫ـ ‪ :2‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻣﻝ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺗﺄﺟﻳﻝ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ‪،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻏﻳﺭ ﻻﺋﻕ ﺑﻬﺎ‪.‬‬

‫‪3‬ـ ‪ :‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻌﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺭ ﺑﺎﻟﺩﻋﻭﺍﺕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﺣﺗﻣﺎﻝ ﺿﻌﻳﻑ‪.‬ﻭﺍﻟﺿﻌﻑ ﻫﻭ ﻋﺎﺋﻕ ﺁﺧﺭ ﻋﻠﻰ‬
‫ﻁﺭﻳﻕ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :4‬ﺃﻥ ُﺗﻁﻠﻕ ﺩﻳﻧﺎﻣﻳﺔ ﺟﺩﻳﺩﺓ ﻟﻠﺣﻭﺍﺭ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻻ ﻳﺑﺩﻭ ﻫﺫﺍ ﻭﺍﺭﺩﺍ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﺍﻙ ﻋﺎﺋﻕ ﺟﺩﻳﺩ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻻ ﺇﺫﺍ‬
‫ﺣﺩﺛﺕ ﻣﻔﺎﺟﺄﺓ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :5‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﺳﻌﻰ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻹﻳﺟﺎﺩ ﻣﺧﺭﺝ ﻣﺎ ﻣﻊ ﺩﻭﻝ ﺇﻗﻠﻳﻣﻳﺔ ﻣﺅﺛﺭﺓ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﺳﺎﺣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ‪ ،‬ﻣﺛﻠﻣﺎ‬
‫ﺣﺎﻭﻝ ﺍﻟﺭﺋﻳﺱ ﻓﻼﺩﻣﻳﺭ ﺑﻭﺗﻳﻥ ﻣﻊ ﺗﺭﻛﻳﺎ ﺧﻼﻝ ﺯﻳﺎﺭﺗﻪ ﺍﻷﺧﻳﺭﺓ ﻟﻬﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺃﻭﺍﺧﺭ ﺍﻟﺳﻧﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺿﻳﺔ‪،‬ﻭﻻ ﺗﺑﺩﻭ ﺗﺭﻛﻳﺎ ﻭﻻ ﺍﻟﺳﻌﻭﺩﻳﺔ ﻓﻲ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻹﺗﺟﺎﻩ ﺍﻹﻳﺟﺎﺑﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻋﺎﺋﻕ ﺃﻳﺿﺎ‪.‬‬
 ‫‪:6‬ﻋﺩﻡ ﺗﻭﺟﻳﻪ ﺍﻟﺩﻋﻭﺍﺕ ﻟﻸﺣﺯﺍﺏ ‪،‬ﻭﺇﻧﻣﺎ ﺑﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺷﺧﺻﻳﺔ ‪، ،‬ﺗﻌﺗﺑﺭﻩ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﻋﺩﻡ‬
‫ﺍﻋﺗﺭﺍﻑ ﺑﻬﺎ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻋﺎﺋﻕ ﺃﺳﺎﺳﻲ ‪.‬‬

‫ﻭﻟﻛﻥ ﻓﻲ ﻣﻘﺎﺑﻝ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻟﻌﻭﺍﺋﻕ‪ :‬ﺑﺈﻣﻛﺎﻥ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﺃﻥ ُﺗﺣﺭﺝ ﻣﻥ ﻳﺗﻐﻳﺏ ﻋﻥ ﻫﺫﺍ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ‬
‫ﻣﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ‪ :‬ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻓﻕ ﻣﻊ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﺣﻭﻝ ﻁﺭﻕ ﻣﻌﻳﻧﺔ ﻹﻧﺟﺎﺡ ﺍﻟﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ ﻣﻥ ﺧﻼﻝ‬
‫ﻣﺟﻣﻭﻋﺔ ﺇﺟﺭﺍءﺍﺕ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ‪:‬‬
‫‪ :1‬ﺇﻁﻼﻕ ﺳﺭﺍﺡ ﺩﻓﻌﺔ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺗﻘﻠﻳﻥ ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﻳﻳﻥ ‪ ،‬ﺧﺻﻭﺻﺎ ﻣﻥ ﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﺍﺧﻝ‪،.‬‬
‫ﻭﺑﺎﻷﺻﻝ ﻫﻧﺎﻙ ﻗﺭﺍﺭ ﺭﺋﺎﺳﻲ ﺑﺎﻟﻌﻔﻭ ﻋﻣﻥ ﻟﻡ ﻳﺷﺎﺭﻙ ﺑﺄﻋﻣﺎﻝ ﺇﺭﻫﺎﺑﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :2‬ﺗﺟﻣﻳﺩ ﺍﻟﻘﺗﺎﻝ ﻓﻲ ﺑﻌﺽ ﺍﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﻭ ﻣﻘﺗﺭﺡ ﻛﺎﻥ ﻗﺩﻣﻪ ﺳﺗﻳﻔﺎﻥ ﺩﻱ ﻣﺳﺗﻭﺭﺓ ﻭﻟﻡ‬
‫ﺗﺭﻓﺿﻪ ﺍﻟﻘﻳﺎﺩﺓ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫‪ :3‬ﺍﻟﺳﻣﺎﺡ ﺑﺈﻗﺎﻣﺔ ﻣﻣﺭﺍﺕ ﺇﻧﺳﺎﻧﻳﺔ ﻭﺇﻏﺎﺛﻳﺔ ﻣﺅﻗﺗﺎ ﻟﻣﻧﺎﻁﻕ ﻣﺣﺎﺻﺭﺓ ﻣﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﻌﺎﺭﺿﺔ ﻭﻣﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻧﻅﺎﻡ‪ ،‬ﻭﻫﺫﺍ ﻳﻭﺟﺩ ﻣﻧﺎﺧﺎ ﺇﻳﺟﺎﺑﻳﺔ‪.‬‬
‫‪:4‬ﺃﻥ ﺗﻭﺟﻪ ﺩﻋﻭﺍﺕ ﺍﻟﺣﺿﻭﺭ ﺑﺻﻔﺎﺕ ﺣﺯﺑﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻁﺎﻟﻣﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺍﻟﻣﺩﻋﻭﻳﻥ ﻫﻡ ﻣﻥ ﺭﻣﻭﺯ‬
‫ﺍﻟﻛﻳﺎﻧﺎﺕ ﻭﺍﻷﺣﺯﺍﺏ ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﻳﺔ ‪ ،‬ﻭﺫﻟﻙ ﻟﻥ ﻳﻐﻳﺭ ﺑﺎﻷﻣﺭ ﺷﻳﺋﺎ ﻁﺎﻟﻣﺎ ﺃﻥ ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﺗﺳﻌﻰ ﻟﺣﻝ‬
‫ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
‫ﻻ ﻳﺑﺩﻭﻣﺅﺗﻣﺭ" ﻣﻭﺳﻛﻭ ﻭﺍﺣﺩ" ﻗﺎﺩﺭﺍ ﻋﻠﻰ ﻓﺗﺢ ﺍﻟﻁﺭﻳﻕ ﺃﻣﺎﻡ ﺣﻝ ﺳﻳﺎﺳﻲ ﻟﻸﺯﻣﺔ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﻭﻣﺛﻠﻣﺎ ﻋﺟﺯ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺏ ﻋﻥ ﺣﻝ ﻫﺫﻩ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺣﻳﻥ ﺣﺎﻭﻝ ﺇﺑﻌﺎﺩ ﺇﻳﺭﺍﻥ ﻭﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻋﻥ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﺍﻟﺳﻳﺎﺳﻲ ‪ ،‬ﻓﻔﺷﻝ ﻭﻏﺭﻗﺕ ﺳﻭﺭﻳﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺩﻭﺍﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺩﻡ ‪،‬ﻓﺈﻥ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﻟﻥ ﺗﺳﺗﻁﻳﻊ ﺍﺟﺗﺭﺍﺡ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﺑﻣﻌﺯﻝ ﻋﻥ ﺍﻟﺗﻭﺍﻓﻘﺎﺕ ﺍﻟﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﻓﺎﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ﻏﺩﺕ ﺃﺯﻣﺔ ﺩﻭﻟﻳﺔ ‪،‬ﻭﻣﺧﺭﺟﻬﺎ‬
‫ﺩﻭﻟﻲ ‪،‬ﻓﻳﻣﺎ ﻳﺑﻘﻰ ﺍﻟﻘﻭﻝ ﺃﺧﻳﺭﺍ ‪ ،‬ﺇﻥ ﺍﻟﻐﺭﺏ ﺍﺍﻟﺫﻱ ﻳﺷﻥ ﺣﺭﺑﺎ ﻧﻔﻁﻳﺔ ﻁﺎﺣﻧﺔ ﻋﻠﻰ ﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ‪،‬‬
‫ﻭﻛﺎﻥ ﺍﻧﺗﺯﻉ ﻣﻧﻬﺎ ﺃﻭﻛﺭﺍﻧﻳﺎ ﻓﻲ ﺍﻟﻌﺎﻡ ﺍﻟﻣﺎﺿﻲ‪ ،‬ﻟﻥ ﻳﺳﻣﺢ ﻟﺭﻭﺳﻳﺎ ﺃﻥ ﺗﻧﻔﺭﺩ ﺑﺈﻣﺗﻼﻙ ﻣﻔﺎﺗﻳﺢ‬
‫ﺍﻟﺣﻝ ﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﻋﺎﻟﻣﻳﺔ ﻫﻲ ﺍﻷﺯﻣﺔ ﺍﻟﺳﻭﺭﻳﺔ ‪.‬‬
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