PROPOSALS FOR AN ENHANCED BRAZILIAN MARITIME & NAVAL STRATEGY

Policy Paper

by Hakan Yapar
Geopolitics and Strategic Studies
Universidad Carlos III de Madrid

Geopolitics of Americas
Dr. Manuel Hidalgo Trenado

MAY 25, 2021

Word Count: 2234
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PROPOSALS FOR AN ENHANCED BRAZILIAN MARITIME & NAVAL

STRATEGY IN AN EVER-RAPIDLY CHANGING GLOBAL CONTEXT

Highlights:

• Maritime and naval domains are essential for the (already) coming age of US-China
rivalry and Brazil’s positioning under this scenario.
• A renewed maritime and naval perspective could be seen as a timely policy issue
mainly due to the prospect of Lula’s comeback to the power and an imperative mainly
due to the growing US-China rivalry in the international context.
• Blue Amazon (denoting Brazilian maritime space) lies at the intersection of national
development based on sustainable use of maritime resources and national defense of
Brazilian mainland.
• A politico-strategic and military-strategic perspective calls for an enhanced Brazilian
maritime & naval capacity requiring dense investment in Navy’s inventory stock and
new cooperation frameworks.

Introduction

It has been almost nearly a decade ago that Lula da Silva as Brazil’s most ambitious, yet
somewhat controversial President as well left his office with a huge legacy on Brazilian
domestic politics and strategic perspective. He managed to maintain a stable growth outlook
during his presidency besides an outward looking international posture.1 Under Lula
leadership, Brazil tried to foster regional institutional frameworks2 in South America in which
Brazil is supposed to play the pioneering role. In addition, Brazil has come to be known
within the grouping of countries called as BRICS or emerging powers in the international
scene. Academic and policy debates have at the same time skyrocketed about Brazilian rise to
make sense of it and to locate its emerging role within changing global system as well in the
aftermath of 2008 global financial crisis. Meanwhile, regardless of whether they pose a
challenge to the US preeminence in the international scene or not, almost all countries of
BRICs grouping have considerably invested in maritime and naval domain as an expression of
their rise. Even middle powers like Turkey3 shifted its focus very recently on these strategic
domains which can indeed be considered as one of the fundamental pillars of the US power
and its leadership in the international system. Putting aside “what rise of what power”4
debates about Brazil, this paper considers maritime and naval domains as essential for the
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(already) coming age of US-China rivalry and Brazil’s positioning under this scenario. Brazil
had already launched efforts appreciating the importance of these domains, yet they fall short
of meeting the necessary threshold for a country of Brazilian size.

Against this background, this paper aims to make proposals for an enhanced Brazilian
Maritime & Naval Strategy. To outline, this policy paper will first provide the theme that
drives this paper to consider a renewed perspective as a timely policy issue and an imperative.
It will, then, elaborate on Blue Amazon and its multidimensional assessment to lay the
groundwork for the following discussions. Thirdly, it will analyze the inventory stock of
Brazilian navy and its capabilities from a military-strategic perspective so that conceived
shortcomings would be addressed in Recommendations. Meanwhile, it will accommodate a
politico-strategic perspective ahead of military-strategic perspective through which to discuss
best strategic policy line in preparing Brazil for the future. Finally, all recommendations
extracted out of prior discussions will be laid out clearly.

Theme

As briefly mentioned in the introduction, the world has almost entered in an age of US-China
rivalry. In this scenario of global power competition, the role of maritime and naval domains
will be as determinant to the extent the US global preeminence is maintained or undermined.
The stress on this front has already been witnessed in Indo-Pacific where China attempts to
attain a position of maritime dominance as a boost for future gradual claims of regional and
global dominance. Brazil as any other county can not escape from the repercussions of this
growing power rivalry between the US and China. Soon the pressure will be fallen upon it. It
has to prepare itself quickly.

On the other hand, another crucial element to be taken into consideration is the prospects of
Lula da Silva’s return to Brazilian politics as the next President. After years of legal battles,
he now secured his legal right to run for the next presidential election. Indeed, his moves so
far strongly signal5 in that direction. It is obvious that if Lula is elected as the next Brazilian
president he is expected to work for a more ambitious and assertive Brazil in the international
scene. However, the international context will certainly be different than his initial two terms
of presidency between 2003-2011. In short, this paper considers a renewed maritime and
naval perspective as a timely policy issue mainly due to the prospect of Lula’s comeback to
the power and an imperative mainly due to the growing US-China rivalry in the international
context.
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Blue Amazon

Blue Amazon is a strategic concept that concerns the defense of Brazilian maritime space
with an understanding that it is part of national homeland.6 It is also part of the “Maritime
mentality” element among the Navy’s Strategic Programs.7 In that program, Brazilian Navy
aims to raise public awareness concerning the issues of maritime security of Brazil and its
importance from an economic point of view as well. To that end, for instance, since 2015 the
day that the UNCLOS entered into force (November 11) is celebrated as “the National Day of
the Blue Amazon”.8 Notably, the Brazilian maritime space (denoted as Blue Amazon) is
safeguarded by the country’s navy unlike many other countries where the coastal guards
assume this role as a norm. It also highlights the importance paid to the Blue Amazon by
Brazilian governments as an issue of great concern for sovereignty9 of the country.
Accordingly, the Navy is supposed to fulfill the role of deterrent against any possible military
aggression to Blue Amazon and the Brazilian mainland in permanent readiness. Thus, the
Navy conducts activities necessary to that end including monitoring, naval exercises etc. Its
activities geographically focus on the South Atlantic region of the world. Recently, hybrid
threats are also considered of great concern to the defense of Blue Amazon and Brazilian
mainland.10

On the economic front, Blue Amazon premises suggest a maritime space of approximately 5.7
million km2, almost half of mainland territory, for Brazil.11 Accordingly, a correspond more
than %95 of Brazil’s foreign trade passes through Blue Amazon. This statistical figure speaks
for the crucial importance of the survival of Brazilian economy and prosperity. It is believed
that Blue Amazon has still great amounts of untapped and unexplored resources. In short,
Blue Amazon lies at the intersection of national development based on sustainable use of
maritime resources and national defense of Brazilian mainland.

A Politico-Strategic and Military-Strategic Perspective

As highlighted before, the growing US-China rivalry will push all international actors
including countries of Brazilian size to think of ways to manage the challenges posed by this
emerging international reality. Although there might come a moment in which taking sides
with either the US or China would be inevitable, until then it is in best interest of Brazil to
maintain its autonomy and heavyweight especially in the South Atlantic from a politico-
strategic viewpoint as long as possible and hedge China against the US and vice versa.
However, retaining such a posture of autonomy and hedging would bear certain costs
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involving profound investment in country’s naval and maritime strategies. On the other hand,
even when the day of choosing a side comes, Brazil will have greater say in its strategic
relationship with its senior partner thanks to greater maritime and naval power of its own.
Moreover, Brazil’s recent pivot12 to Africa and associated business interests also call for
greater emphasis on Brazilian heavyweight across South Atlantic. In short, no matter long it
takes for Brazil to have to choose sides in the growing US-China rivalry and no matter side it
takes when compelled to choose, Brazil needs to enhance its maritime and naval power to
brace for coming international reality. This politico-strategic perspective will shape the
following debate of military-strategic perspective.

To begin with the discussion from military-strategic perspective, the Brazilian Navy is the
largest navy in South America and in Latin America, and the second largest navy in the
Americas, after the United States Navy. The navy has historically played critical roles from
independence in 18th century to its roles in two World Wars, and Lobster War against France
between 1961–1963. In a world increasingly characterized by growing US-China rivalry its
preparedness and capabilities against any possible conventional naval confrontation becomes
more and more paramount. This is particularly the case given Brazil’s status as an emerging
power, thus a country in the grouping of BRICs. As of 2020, the Brazilian Navy has roughly
80000 active personnel, approximately 16,000 of which are naval infantry. Considering its
population size and its relative position vis-à-vis other BRICs, the quantity of Brazilian naval
personnel is certainly insufficient. In that regard, Brazilian governments (particularly those
expected to wish for ambitious Brazil like Lula) should consider rescaling the Navy personal
upwards.

With respect to inventory of Brazilian Navy13, it has an outdated multipurpose aircraft carrier
granted it by France14 after France decided to render it out of France’s service. Brazil
definitely needs to double its multipurpose aircraft carrier inventory without keeping the
outdated one in service.15 It is highly likely that these multipurpose kind of aircraft carriers
will be of great strategic importance to Brazil in the coming international realities. Other great
and middle powers have already ramped up their investments on this kind of inventory.
Moreover, the Brazilian Navy has 7 submarines, 6 frigates, 2 corvettes and 4 amphibious
warfare ships as fundamental elements of naval inventory for any possible naval confrontation
alongside secondary elements of 6 mine countermeasures vessels, 22 oceanic patrol boats, 20
fast patrol craft, 30 oceanic auxiliary ships, 12 river patrol boats, 16 river auxiliary ships. The
figures speak for themselves: Brazil cannot attain its strategic aims in line with politico-
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strategic perspective proposed in this paper. Only current level of submarine inventory would
be considered as satisfactory. Brazil should particularly triple its frigate fleet within the next
decade. Mainly corvettes and amphibious warfare ships should at least be doubled in the same
time frame for any chance of keeping up with the coming international reality and greater
Brazilian role within it.

Finally, simply expanding Navy’s inventory would not suffice to achieve ambitions of
politico-strategic perspective for Brazil. There needs to be exponential increase in cooperation
with international partners such as European partners (prominently France). As such, Brazil’s
already underway strategic cooperation on nuclear capabilities16 with France should be
deepened alongside seeking new partners in nuclear cooperation and defense industrial
cooperation to feed Brazil’s industrial base that, in turn, would translate more value-added
into Navy’s capabilities. In that regard, Brazil would turn to a country like Turkey with whom
it had bourgeoning relations especially during Lula presidency as then two rotating members
of the UN Security Council. The rise of Turkish defense17 and naval industry18 in the last
decade is also what makes it more attractive point of reference for Brazil.

Recommendations:

• Regardless of how long it takes for Brazil to have to choose sides in the
growing US-China rivalry and the side it takes when compelled to choose, Brazil
needs to enhance its maritime and naval power to brace for coming international
reality from a politico-strategic perspective.
• From military-strategic point of view, Brazilian governments should consider
rescaling the Navy personal upwards.
• To specify more on this perspective, Brazil should double its multipurpose
aircraft carrier inventory.
• Moreover, Brazil should triple its frigate fleet within the next decade. Mainly
corvettes and amphibious warfare ships should at least be doubled in the same time
frame.
• Last but not least, Brazil should exponentially increase and deepen its
cooperation with international partners (prominently France) and seek for new
cooperative partners like Turkey on areas of defense and naval industry.
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ENDNOTES

1
BBC News. 2019. Brazil's Lula: From president to prisoner. June 11. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-
america-10841416.
2
Vaz, Alcides Costa, Alexandre Fuccille, and Lucas Pereira Rezende. 2017. "UNASUR, Brazil, and the South
American defence cooperation: A decade later." Revista Brasileira de Política Internacional 1-21.
https://dx.doi.org/10.1590/0034-7329201700212.
3
Gingeras, Ryan. 2020. BLUE HOMELAND: THE HEATED POLITICS BEHIND TURKEY’S NEW
MARITIME STRATEGY. June 2. https://warontherocks.com/2020/06/blue-homeland-the-heated-politics-
behind-turkeys-new-maritime-strategy/.
4
Gardini, Gian Luca. 2016. "Brazil: What Rise of What Power?" Bulletin of Latin American Research 5-19.
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/pdf/10.1111/blar.12417.
5
The Economist. 2021. Lula, a former president of Brazil, could run again in 2022. March 10.
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2021/03/10/lula-a-former-president-of-brazil-could-run-again-in-2022.
6
Marinha do Brasil. n.d. Amazônia Azul [Blue Amazon]. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.mar.mil.br/hotsites/amazonia_azul/amazonia-azul.html.
7
Marinha do Brasil. n.d. Programas Estratégicos [Strategic Programs]. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.marinha.mil.br/programas-estrategicos.
8
Marinha do Brasil. n.d. Amazônia Azul [Blue Amazon]. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.mar.mil.br/hotsites/amazonia_azul/amazonia-azul.html.
9
Marinha do Brasil. n.d. Vertente Soberania [The Sovereignty Strand]. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.mar.mil.br/hotsites/amazonia_azul/vertente-soberania.html.
10
I.b.i.d.
11
Marinha do Brasil. n.d. Amazônia Azul [Blue Amazon]. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.mar.mil.br/hotsites/amazonia_azul/amazonia-azul.html.
12
Thompson, Nathan, and Robert Muggah. 2015. The Blue Amazon. June 11.
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/africa/2015-06-11/blue-amazon.
13
Marinha do Brasil. n.d. Navios e Aeronaves [Ships and Aircraft]. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.marinha.mil.br/meios-navais.
14
Mizokami, Kyle. 2017. Brazil is Retiring Its Only Aircraft Carrier. February 16.
https://www.popularmechanics.com/military/navy-ships/a25260/brazil-retiring-only-aircraft-carrier/.
15
Brazil has indeed already decided to sell its outdated aircraft carries. See:
Axe, David. 2019. Why Is Brazil Selling Their Aircraft Carrier? November 19.
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/why-brazil-selling-their-aircraft-carrier-97577.
16
Marinha do Brasil. n.d. Programas Estratégicos [Strategic Programs]. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.marinha.mil.br/programas-estrategicos.
17
Demir, İsmail. 2020. "Transformation of the Turkish Defense Industry: The Story and Rationale of the Great
Rise." Insight Turkey 17-40. https://www.insightturkey.com/file/1273/transformation-of-the-turkish-defense-
industry-the-story-and-rationale-of-the-great-rise.
18
Defense News. n.d. The rise of the Turkish naval industry. Accessed May 20, 2021.
https://www.defensenews.com/native/turkish-defence-aerospace/2020/09/21/the-rise-of-turkish-naval-industry/.