Center for Continuing Education - UPES

Aviation Forecasting Techniques

Assignment 2

Total Questions: 56
Total Marks: 100

Assignment Information :

The examination will consist of only Objective type (multiple choice) questions
requiring candidates to Mouse-click their correct choice of alternatives against
the related question number. The questions would carry 1 to 5 marks each
depending on the difficulty level of the question as indicated in the table below:

Difficulty Level of Questions:

1 Mark - Direct, Memory based

2 Marks - Memory & Conceptual
3 Marks - Conceptual & Analytical
4 Marks - Analytical based on understanding of concepts
5 Marks - Application based on understanding of concepts
   The question paper will be for 100 marks and considering marks
allotted to each question, the total number of questions would be
around 56.
   There will not be negative marking for wrong answers.
   In case candidate does not want to attempt the question he I she
should not mouse-click any option.
   The students are allowed to save the responses and come back later
to resume, complete and "Save and Submit" the assignment. However,
if the Due Date has expired, then the assignment will not be accessible
and will be marked as zero. In such cases, the student can re-attempt
the assignment allocated after enrolling in the subsequent Semester.
   Once submitted, that answer sheet cannot be retreieved for any
editing. The student has to initiate a new attempt (if allowed), if he has
submitted the assignment by mistake.
   The students are normally allowed 3 chances to attempt and submit
the assignment. The number of attempts availed is displayed under the
"Test Information".
   The Highest Grade of the 3 attempts shall be considered for grading.
   The assignments are auto evaluated, and hence no chance of re-
evaluation/re-totalling is allowed to the student.
Multiple Attempts This Test allows 3
attempts. This is
attempt number 1.
Force Completion This Test can be
saved and resumed
later.
Your answers are
saved automatically.
 Question Completion Status:
QUE S TION 1
1. When we use an approach which implies that the forecast for the next time period
should take into account the observed error in the earlier forecast for the current time
period, then we are using:
Regression analysis
Exponential
Smoothing
Decision Tree Analysis
Time Series Analysis

4 points   
QUE S TION 2
1. Using regression analysis for forecasting, a high value for R2 suggests that we can: 
Be reasonably confident in our forecast
Have little confidence in our forecast
Have no confidence in our forecast
Be totally confident in our forecast

4 points   
QUE S TION 3
1. Find 95% prediction intervals for the predictions of temperature in 1999. These results
summarize the fit of a simple exponential smooth to the time series.
0.3297 2 * 0.1125
0.3297 2 * 0.121
0.3297 2 * 0.129
0.3297 2 * 0.22

4 points   
QUE S TION 4
1. Which of the following circumstances is likely to make a forecast using (multiple)
regression analysis less reliable?
All the points lie exactly along the regression line in the scatter
diagram
No important variables are missing from the regression equation
Some important variables are missing from the regression equation
All the relevant variables are included in the regression equation

4 points   
QUE S TION 5
1. The last period’s forecast was 70 and demand was 60. What is the simple exponential
smoothing forecast with alpha of 0.4 for the next period.
63.8
65
 62
66

4 points   
QUE S TION 6
1. Which of the following can’t be a component for a time series plot?
Seasonality
Trend
Cyclical
None of the above

1 points   
QUE S TION 7
1. What is the abbrevation for ADF?
Automatic Direction Finding
Automatic Direction Figure
Automatic Direction Forecast
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 8
1. Operations generated forecasts often not to do with
Inventory Requirements
Resource Needs
Time requirements
Sales

1 points   
QUE S TION 9
1. While direction of forecast matter a lot in case of forecasting aeronautical revenues, _____
matter a lot while forecasting for non-aeronautical revenues.
magnitude
altitude
height
value

1 points   
QUE S TION 10
1. _________ in the magnetic compass would be most pronounced on headings of east and
west.
Acceleration errors
Acceleration accuracy
 Deceleration errors
Deceleration accuracy

1 points   
QUE S TION 11
1. When turning from downwind to into-wind at low altitude, a pilot may experience an
illusion of
slipping and decreasing airspeed.
skidding and decreasing airspeed.
slipping and increasing airspeed.
skidding and increasing airspeed.

1 points   
QUE S TION 12
1. It is possible for carburettor icing to occur
in clear air with high relative humidity at above freezing
temperatures.
only when precipitation is present at freezing temperatures.
only in cloud with high relative humidity.
only when water droplets are in suspension in the air.

1 points   
QUE S TION 13
1. Keynes consumption states that MPC is always less than ________
1
-2
0
-1

1 points   
QUE S TION 14
1. Which of the following is not a technique used in smoothing time series?
Nearest Neighbour Regression
Locally weighted scatter plot smoothing
Tree based models like (CART)
Smoothing SplinesSmoothing SplinesSmoothing
Splines

1 points   
QUE S TION 15
1. ______ form when moist warm air overruns cold air because the warm air cools as a result
of expansion as it rises.
Water Droplets
 Smog
Fog
Clouds

1 points   
QUE S TION 16
1. If you are looking at a featureless sky during hazy or dark conditions, your eyes will tend
to focus at a point approximately _______ ft away.
3 to 5
30 to 50
300 to 500
3,000 to 5,000

1 points   
QUE S TION 17
1. Which is one of the approach available for aviation forecasting?
Time Series Econometric
Modeling
Time Series Economical Method
Time Series Ecological Modeling
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 18
1. The accuracy of forecasting is purely depending upon the __________ and sophisticated
statistical models.
Qualitative
Quality of data
Quality of system
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 19
1. Two time series are jointly stationary if _____
They are easy stationary
Cross variance function is a afunction only of lag
h
Only A
Both A and B

1 points   
QUE S TION 20
1. Wake turbulence caused by a departing aeroplane is most severe immediately
 following full power application.
before rotation
following rotation
above its flight path

1 points   
QUE S TION 21
1. Barometric methods are used to forecast
seasonal variation
secular trend
cyclical variation
irregular variation

1 points   
QUE S TION 22
1. Per capita GDP is a qualitative statement of air service consumption function. From this,
we identified two variables, one is expenditure on _______
air travel
air taxes
air expenditure
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 23
1. Operations generated forecasts often not to do with
Inventory Requirements
Resource Needs
Time requirements
Sales

1 points   
QUE S TION 24
1. Which of the following cross validation techniques is better suited for time series data?
k-Fold Cross Validation
Leave-one-out Cross Validation
Stratified Shuffle Split Cross Validation
Forward Chaining Cross Validation

1 points   
QUE S TION 25
1. Autocovariance function for weakly stationary time series does not depend on _______ 
Separation of xs and xt
 h = |s-t|
Location of point at a particular time
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 26
1. Any stationary time series can be approximately the random superposition of sines and
cosines oscillating at various frequencies.

 True

 False
1 points   
QUE S TION 27
1. Adjacent observations in time series data (excluding white noise) are independent and
identically distributed (IID).

 True

 False
1 points   
QUE S TION 28
1. The last period’s forecast was 70 and demand was 60. What is the simple exponential
smoothing forecast with alpha of 0.4 for the next period.
63.8
65
62
66

1 points   
QUE S TION 29
1. Econometric model is very much useful for aviation _____
forecasting
law
technique
method

1 points   
QUE S TION 30
1. Autocovariance function for weakly stationary time series does not depend on _______ 
Separation of xs and xt
h = |s-t|
Location of point at a particular time
 None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 31
1. Cit=f(Yit), In this formula, what is Yit ?
per capita GDP of 't'th country at 'I' time period
per capita GDP of ith country at t time period
per capita earning of ith country at t time
period
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 32
1. Which of the following is not a necessary condition for weakly stationary time series?
ean is constant and does not depend on time
Autocovariance function depends on s and t only through their difference |s-t|
(where t and s are moments in time)
The time series under considerations is a finite variance process
Time series is Gaussian

1 points   
QUE S TION 33
1. Barometric methods are used to forecast
seasonal variation
secular trend
cyclical variation
irregular variation

1 points   
QUE S TION 34
1. Mathematics tell us about various functional form of the ______.
model
method
equation
none of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 35
1. The first step in time-series analysis is to
perform preliminary regression calculations.
calculate a moving average.
plot the data on a graph.
 identify relevant correlated variables.

1 points   
QUE S TION 36
1. The altimeter setting is 29.70 in. Hg. If the pilot inadvertently sets 30.70 in. Hg on the
altimeter subscale, the altimeter will read 1,000 _____ too high.
feet
inch
km
meter

1 points   
QUE S TION 37
1. Time-series analysis is based on the assumption that
random error terms are normally distributed
there are dependable correlations between the variable to be forecast and other
independent variables
past patterns in the variable to be forecast will continue unchanged into the future
the data do not exhibit a trend

1 points   
QUE S TION 38
1. Second differencing in time series can help to eliminate which trend?
Quadratic Trend
Linear Trend
Both A & B
None of the above

1 points   
QUE S TION 39
1. The accuracy of forecasting is purely depending upon the quality of data and
______________.
sophisticated statistical methods
sophisticated statistical techniques
sophisticated statistical mindset
sophisticated statistical models

1 points   
QUE S TION 40
1. Radiation fog forms as a result of the
passage of cold air over a warm surface.
air becoming moist as it moves over the sea.
clouds becoming cold and heavy at night so that they settle to the
 ground.
ground becoming cold at night and cooling the air in contact with it.

1 points   
QUE S TION 41
1. What is the abbrevation for AGL?
About Ground Level
Above Ground Level
Average Ground Level
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 42
1. Imagine, you are working on a time series dataset. Your manager has asked you to build
a highly accurate model. You started to build two types of models which are given
below.Model 1: Decision Tree modelModel 2: Time series regression modelAt the end of
evaluation of these two models, you found that model 2 is better than model 1. What
could be the possible reason for your inference?
Model 1 couldn’t map the linear relationship as good as Model 2
Model 1 will always be better than Model 2
You can’t compare decision tree with time series regression
None of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 43
1. A major early symptom of _______ is euphoria
drowziness
dizziness
hypoxia
hyperventilatio
n

1 points   
QUE S TION 44
1. The altimeter setting is 29.70 in. Hg. If the pilot inadvertently sets 30.70 in. Hg on the
altimeter subscale, the altimeter will read
1,000 ft too
high.
1,000 ft too low.
100 ft too high
100 ft too low.

1 points   
QUE S TION 45
 1. A number of forecasting ________ are available but all are not based upon rigorous
quantitative and statistical modeling.
technique
value
magnitude
none of these

1 points   
QUE S TION 46
1. Unless otherwise authorized, a pilot on a VFR flight entering Class C airspace must
request a clearance from the appropriate ATC unit immediately after entering.
establish radio contact with the appropriate ATC unit only when transiting the
associated control zone
receive a clearance from the appropriate ATC unit prior to entering.
contact radar service only when taking off or landing at the associated airport.

2 points   
QUE S TION 47
1. Mean value of the random error term is _________
one
two
ten
zero

2 points   
QUE S TION 48
1. The BLUE property of OLS estimator hold true when it is best ______ and have minimum
variance among the class of unbiased estimator.
linear
variable
unlinear
simple

2 points   
QUE S TION 49
1. Which theory states that when income increases consumption also increases
Regression Theory
Statitics Theory
Model Theory
Economic Theory

2 points   
QUE S TION 50
 1. Forecasting is the prediction of _________ event, which is both a science and an art.
future
past
present
None of these

2 points   
QUE S TION 51
1. The sample size must be ______ than the number of parameters to be estimated.
lesser
greater
more
none of these

2 points   
QUE S TION 52
1. How is the availability of tools which forecast perfectly ?
easy
rare
very rare
very easy

2 points   
QUE S TION 53
1. Which of the following is not true for forecasting?
Forecasts are rarely perfect
The underlying casual system will remain same in the future
Forecast for group of items is accurate than individual item
Short range forecasts are less accurate than long range forecasts

2 points   
QUE S TION 54
1. How is income and consumption related
directly proportional
inversly
proportional
not realated
none of these

2 points   
QUE S TION 55
1. Francis Galton is known for introducing
 Literature of economics
Literature of econometrics
Methods of econometrics
Literature of english

2 points   
QUE S TION 56
1. The indicated stalling speed of an aeroplane
is higher when flying downwind than
upwind
increases with altitude.
decreases with altitude.
does not change with change of altitude.

2 points   
QUE S TION 57
1. what does matter a lot in case forecasting aeronautical revenues ?
direction of forecast
magnitude of forecast
volume
None of these

2 points   
QUE S TION 58
1. The observed variables on which we can collect the data can be modelled as x ̃ = x + u
and y ̃ = y + v, which show that our observed variables x ̃ and y ̃ are measured with
additive errors u and v respectively. Thus u and v are ________.
measurement defects
measurement systems
measurement errors
measurement techniques

2 points   
QUE S TION 59
1. Are there tools which can predict perfect ?
yes
no
cant predict near to perfect
None of these

2 points   
QUE S TION 60
1. Which of the following can’t be a component for a time series plot?
 Seasonality
Trend
Cyclical
None of these

3 points   
QUE S TION 61
1. Pilots are responsible for taking action as necessary to avoid a collision
unless flying in accordance with an ATC clearance
only when flying in VFR conditions.
except when within visual range of the control
tower.
at all times.

3 points   
QUE S TION 62
1. Which of the following cross validation techniques is better suited for time series data?
k-Fold Cross Validation
Leave-one-out Cross Validation
Stratified Shuffle Split Cross Validation
Forward Chaining Cross Validation

3 points   
QUE S TION 63
1. What is the full form of PCES ?
Product Consumption Expenditures Services
Product Common Expenditures Services
Personal Consumption Expenditures on Services
None of these