Applied Energy 63 (1999) 161±167

www.elsevier.com/locate/apenergy

Estimation of solar radiation from the number

of sunshine hours
David B. Ampratwum a, Atsu S.S. Dorvlo b,*
a
College of Agriculture, Sultan Qaboos University, Al-khod, Sultanate of Oman
b
College of Science, Sultan Qaboos University, PO Box 36, PC 123, Al-khod, Sultanate of Oman

Abstract
Several expressions have been used to estimate global solar radiation from sunshine hours
for weather stations in Oman, an arid region. These included original (linear) and modi®ed
(linear±logarithmic) AngstroÈm±Black type regression functions, a quadratic function, a
power relationship, a power±trigonometric equation and one from a new AngstroÈm±Black
type logarithmic model. For the power±trigonometric model, the solar altitude of the station
was used as additional information for estimating the solar radiation. All the models per-
formed well as estimators of global solar-radiation from sunshine hours but the non-linear
models were better than the basic linear model. The power±trigonometric model estimated
the radiation values best. The quadratic and linear±logarithmic models are the preferred
models when only the relative sunshine is used. # 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights
reserved.

1. Introduction

Solar radiation data are the best source of information for estimating average
incident radiation necessary for the proper design and assessment of solar energy
conversion systems [1,2]. However, many locations lack the necessary equipment for
global radiation measurements [2]. By contrast, data on average hours of sunshine
or average percentage of possible sunshine hours are widely available from many
hundreds of stations in many countries [1]. Several AngstroÈm±Black [3,4] type
regression models have been proposed in the literature for estimating solar radiation

* Corresponding author.

0306-2619/99/$ - see front matter # 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
PII: S0306-2619(99)00025-2
162 D.B. Ampratwum, A.S.S. Dorvlo / Applied Energy 63 (1999) 161±167

using data on the duration of sunshine [5]. Newland [6] added a logarithmic term to the
original linear regression equation to obtain a better ®t. Akinoglu and Ecevit [7] pro-
posed a quadratic regression equation which ®tted their data well. Coppolino [2]
developed a power function and incorporated a trigonometric term. This power model
can also be transformed into the AngstroÈm±Black type equation by a logarithmic
transformation.
In this paper, the regression coecients of all these various models are determined
using 10-year (1986!1995) data from ®ve meteorological stations in Oman, which is
representative of an area with desert and a sub-tropical climate. The models are com-
pared to determine the best model for each of the stations in Oman.

2. Mathematical models

The regression models that have been proposed in the literature and a model
resulting from this work are listed in Table 1.
The power and power±trigonometric models can be transformed into linear forms
by taking natural logarithms. In the models, a, b and c are the regression coecients.
These coecients are estimated using the method of least squares. The clearness
index, KT ˆ H  =H
 o is the ratio of the respective monthly mean daily values of the
global and extraterrestrial radiation on a horizontal surface. H is the average of the
recorded values of the global radiation, H. The extra±terrestrial radiation, Ho , can
be computed using the equation

24  3600  Gsc
Ho ˆ
     …1†
360n !s
1 ‡ 0:033 cos ‰cos  cos  sin !s ‡ sin  sin 
365 180

 o is the average of Ho over

where Gsc is the solar constant, n is the day of the year, H
the particular month;  is the latitude of the location; d represents the declination,
that is, the angular position of the Sun at solar noon and !s is the sunset-hour angle,
which can be calculated from

Table 1
Regression models

Models Regression equations Source

Linear KT ˆ a ‡ bRs AngstroÈm±Black [3,4]

Quadratic KT ˆ a ‡ bRs ‡ cR2s Akinoglu and Ecevit [7]
Linear±logarithmic KT ˆ a ‡ bRs ‡ c log…Rs † Newland [6]
Logarithmic KT ˆ a ‡ b log…Rs † Present study
Power KT ˆ ea Rbs Coppolino [2]
Power±trigonometric KT ˆ ea Rbs …sin h †c Coppolino [2]
 D.B. Ampratwum, A.S.S. Dorvlo / Applied Energy 63 (1999) 161±167 163

!s ˆ cosÿ1 …ÿ tan  tan †: …2†

The declination can be computed from the equation of Cooper, cited by Due
and Beckman [1], namely  ˆ 23:45 sin 360 365 …284 ‡ n†. Rs is the ratio of S and So
hours, which are respectively the measured and theoretical daily sunshine durations
[3,4]. The parameter, S , is the monthly average daily hours of bright sunshine; S o is
the monthly average maximum possible daily hours of bright sunshine, that is, the
day-length of the average day of the month calculated from the number of daylight
hours, So . The theoretical sunshine duration for the day is calculated from:

2
So ˆ cosÿ1 …ÿ tan  tan † ˆ 2!s =15: …3†
15

All expressions quoted above, unless otherwise stated, are from Due and Beck-
man [1]. The basic linear regression equation proposed by Rietveld [5] and con-
®rmed by Ma and Iqbal [8] is:

KT ˆ 0:18 ‡ 0:62Rs : …4†

The quadratic model suggested by Akinoglu and Ecevit [7] is:

KT ˆ 0:145 ‡ 0:845Rs ÿ 0:280R2s : …5†

This model provided a very good ®t for stations in Italy. The model has been used
-
to estimate the values of monthly mean daily global radiation, H, for 58 locations in
several countries. The power-trigonometric model that Coppolino [2] proposed is

KT ˆ 0:67R0:45
s sin0:05 …h †; for 0:154Rs 40:90 …6†

where h is the noon solar altitude angle of the Sun on the 15th of the month. The
solar altitude angle is the complement of zenith angle and may be calculated from
h ˆ 90 ÿ  ‡ . The model has been tested using data from 34 Italian stations.
A linear±logarithmic model, which has been used by Newland [6] to obtain a good
®t between KT and Rs , is:

KT ˆ 0:34 ‡ 0:40Rs ‡ 0:17 ln Rs …7†

The model gives improved predictions when Rs is outside the range 0.2 to 0.6.

3. Procedure

The coecients a and b, and c where applicable, were computed for each of the
models using data for ®ve stations in Oman namely Marmul, Masirah, Salalah, Seeb
164 D.B. Ampratwum, A.S.S. Dorvlo / Applied Energy 63 (1999) 161±167

and Sur ( Table 2). These are the stations that have long-term daily measurements of
global radiation and duration of bright sunshine for the years 1986 to 1995 [9]. For
all the models, the method of least squares was used to determine the coecients.
The clearness index or the natural logarithm of it was the dependent variable, while
the relative sunshine or the natural logarithm of it was the independent variable.
The goodness of ®t was judged by the size of the coecient of determination, R2. The
general regression equations of the form KT ˆ f…Rs † were changed to estimating equa-
^ ˆ Ho f…Rs †. The following statistics were also computed
tions of the form H as a further
P
check on the suitability of the models; the mean bias, MBE ˆ H i ÿ ^
H i =n, root-
  2 12
P
mean-square error, RMSE ˆ Hi ÿ H ^ i =…n ÿ k† and the average absolute
X    
percentage bias, MPE ˆ 1=n  Hi ÿ H^ i =Hi   100, where n is the number of valid
data points and k is the number of parameters estimated in the model.

4. Results and discussion

The coecients a; b; c and R2 , are reported in Table 3. The other statistics, MBE,
RMSE and MPE, are presented in Table 4. The closer these statistics, in Table 4,
are to zero the better the estimator. A positive MBE represents an over estimation
whereas a negative MBE shows an under estimation.
All the models ®tted the data adequately. All the coecients reported are sig-
ni®cantly di€erent from zero. The lowest coeecient of determination was 70%. The
best ®ts were with data from Salalah and Masirah, where all the models gave coe-
cients of determination better than 90%. Seeb and Marmul gave the least coecient
of determination. The coecients are di€erent from station to station. These coe-
cients are also di€erent from those obtained for the same models in other countries by
Coppolino [2], Newland [6] and Rietveld [5]. This may be due to Oman being largely a
desert country. Salalah, which has a climate approaching that of a sub-tropical
enviroment, has coecients close to those obtained by Akinoglu and Ecevit [7].
For each station, all the models have very similar coecients of determination.
The largest di€erence between coecients of determination of the best model and
the worst is only 0.075 at Seeb. Considering the RMSE, the results for all the models

Table 2
Geographic locations of some weather stations in Oman

Station Latitude north Longitude east Altitude (m)

 0  0
Marmul 18 08 55 11 269.0
Masirah 20 400 58 540 18.8
Salalah 17 020 54 050 20.0
Seeb 23 350 58 170 14.6
Sur 22 320 59 280 13.8
 D.B. Ampratwum, A.S.S. Dorvlo / Applied Energy 63 (1999) 161±167 165

Table 3
Correlation coecients

Station Models R2 a b c

Marmul Linear 0.7193 ÿ0.4224 1.2747

Quadratic 0.7605 ÿ5.3667 13.2653 ÿ7.2552
Linear±logarithmic 0.7585 11.1115 ÿ10.4401 9.6655
Logarithmic 0.7585 0.8336 1.0573
Power 0.7429 ÿ0.1361 1.7156
Power±trigonometic 0.7666 ÿ0.1812 1.5328 ÿ0.1373
Masirah Linear 0.9046 0.2150 0.3747
Quadratic 0.9398 ÿ0.2690 1.6742 ÿ0.8575
Linear±logarithmic 0.9392 1.4615 ÿ0.9071 0.9613
Logarithmic 0.9219 0.5799 0.2832
Power 0.9234 ÿ0.5337 0.5780
Power±trigonometric 0.957 ÿ0.5018 0.6495 0.1331
Sallalah Linear 0.9777 0.2418 0.3555
Quadratic 0.9952 0.1971 0.6297 ÿ0.2637
Linear±logarithmic 0.9957 0.4337 0.1430 0.0861
Logarithmic 0.9879 0.5612 0.1412
Power 0.9972 ÿ0.5561 0.3588
Powder±trigonometric 0.9973 ÿ0.5598 0.3571 ÿ0.0296
Seeb Linear 0.7103 0.3326 0.3110
Quadratic 0.7334 0.9428 ÿ1.2027 0.9336
Linear±logarithmic 0.7356 ÿ1.1931 1.8641 ÿ1.2544
Logarithmic 0.6993 0.6376 0.2490
Power 0.6944 ÿ0.4470 0.4253
Power±trigonometric 0.7690 ÿ0.4135 0.5239 0.0911
Sur Linear 0.8345 0.1917 0.3284 0.0020
Quadratic 0.8345 0.1917 0.3284 0.0529
Linear±logarithmic 0.8346 0.2572 0.2631 0.0529
Logarithmic 0.8328 0.5138 0.2560
Power 0.8381 ÿ0.6573 0.5736
Power±trigonometric 0.8496 ÿ0.6756 0.5245 ÿ0.0554

are very low. This supports the high coecients of determination mentioned above.
All the models slightly under-estimate the solar radiation in Sur, Marmul and Sala-
lah. Slight over-estimation is noted at Seeb and Masirah. It should be noted that the
over- and under-estimations are very slight. The absolute percentage bias, MPE, is
generally low for all the models for all the stations except Marmul. The power±tri-
gonometric model has the smallest MPE for Masirah, Seeb and Sur. In Salalah and
Masirah, the MPEs for the power±trigonometric model were the smallest recorded.
It may be noted that Seeb with the largest di€erence between the best and worst
coecients of determination (0.0746), and Marmul with the largest absolute per-
centage bias, gave the weakest ®ts. Generally the linear model gave the largest
absolute percent bias. The power±trigonometric model is the best for all the stations.
The introduction of the solar altitude-angle has improved the regression equation.
166 D.B. Ampratwum, A.S.S. Dorvlo / Applied Energy 63 (1999) 161±167

Table 4
Statistics for comparing the models

Station Model MBE RMSE MPE

Marmul Linear ÿ0.0807 0.9936 3.5157

Quadratic ÿ0.0726 0.9998 3.3154
Linear±logarithmic ÿ0.0723 1.0032 3.3213
Logarithmic ÿ0.0800 0.9819 3.4165
Power ÿ0.0625 1.0007 3.5432
Power±trigonometric ÿ0.0365 1.0005 3.3442
Masirah Linear 0.0225 0.4106 1.6301
Quadratic 0.0209 0.3356 1.3364
Linear±logarithmic 0.0187 0.3395 1.3480
Logarithmic 0.0218 0.3669 1.4363
Power 0.0286 0.3892 1.5124
Power±trigonometric 0.0050 0.3127 1.1276
Salalah Linear 0.0075 0.6217 2.7735
Quadratic ÿ0.0063 0.2807 1.2500
Linear±logarithmic ÿ0.0051 0.2739 1.2343
Logarithmic ÿ0.0178 0.4248 2.1024
Power ÿ0.0047 0.2538 1.1829
Power±trigonometric ÿ0.0006 0.2592 1.1421
Seeb Linear 0.0266 0.4368 1.7364
Quadratic 0.0305 0.4575 1.7349
Linear±logarithmic 0.0271 0.4552 1.7231
Logarithmic 0.0280 0.4423 1.7767
Power 0.0321 0.4407 1.7687
Power±trigonometric ÿ0.0014 0.4167 1.5726
Sur Linear ÿ0.0247 0.3879 1.8051
Quadratic ÿ0.0250 0.4089 1.8052
Linear±logarithmic ÿ0.0239 0.4085 1.8083
Logarithmic ÿ0.0250 0.3893 1.8283
Power ÿ0.0204 0.3872 1.8097
Power±trigonometric ÿ0.0091 0.3887 1.7753

5. Conclusions

All the models performed very well as estimators of global radiation when the
number of relative sunshine hours is used in the regression models studied. The power±
trigonometric model is the best overall. This model uses additional information,
namely the solar altitude angle of the station. The quadratic and the linear±logarithmic
models are the best when only the number of relative sunshine hours is used. All the
non-linear models provide more accurate predictions than the basic linear model.

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