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STM 201220130033000 Eng Pdfs
STM 201220130033000 Eng Pdfs
STM 201220130033000 Eng Pdfs
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9
Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper)
Summary
Norway’s long coastline and wide mountain Everyone is responsible for climate change
ranges extending right up to the Arctic mean that adaptation – individuals, business and industry
the country is extremely exposed to wind and and the authorities. This is not a new responsibil-
weather. The climate and weather conditions ity, although its substance is described more spe-
affect practically every sector of society and are cifically in the present white paper. The white
an important element of most people’s daily lives. paper gives an account of what the authorities are
Norwegians are used to taking weather condi- doing to enable everyone to take their share of the
tions into account and have adapted to climate var- responsibility for climate change adaptation as
iability over the centuries. effectively as possible, and sets out a common
Over the past 100 years, the Norwegian cli- framework for climate change adaptation across
mate has become warmer and precipitation has sectors and administrative levels.
increased by about 20 %. These trends are A preliminary framework for the authorities’
expected to continue. It is estimated that the work in this field was first set out in the 2009
annual mean temperature in Norway will rise by budget proposal, which focused particularly on
between 2.3 and 4.6 °C by the end of this century reviewing Norway’s vulnerability to climate
relative to the period 1961–90. Similarly, it is esti- change, developing the knowledge base, coordi-
mated that precipitation may rise by between 5 nating adaptation initiatives and awareness rais-
and 30 %, and projections also indicate an increase ing. In response to this, a national assessment of
in intense precipitation events, which will in turn the impacts of climate change on Norway has
increase the risk of certain types of flooding and been produced and published as an Official Nor-
landslides and avalanches. wegian Report, Adapting to a changing climate
The severity of the impacts of climate change (NOU 2010: 10). Research efforts have been
on the environment and society will depend both intensified, and a range of capacity- and compe-
on how much the climate changes and on soci- tence-building measures have been implemented,
ety’s adaptive capacity and willingness to factor especially at municipal level. Many authorities in
climate change into planning and take active steps different sectors and a large number of municipal-
to adapt to change. The present white paper ities have already made a good start on adaptation
focuses on the challenges associated with climate efforts.
change and how Norway can become more resil- Climate projections are an important basis for
ient in the face of climate change. society’s adaptation to climate change. As a pre-
cautionary approach, the Government wishes
6 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
assessments of the impacts of climate change to Sea level rise associated with climate change
be based on figures from the high end of the may lead to new challenges in some areas. Indi-
range of national climate projections. However, viduals, private companies, public bodies and local
when decisions are made in individual cases, cli- and central government authorities all have a
mate change considerations and underlying responsibility for taking steps to safeguard their
assumptions about the degree of climate change own property. Under the Planning and Building
must be weighed against other considerations of Act, the municipalities are responsible for ensur-
the public interest, the lifetime of the development ing that natural hazards are assessed and taken
in question and its importance to society. properly into account in spatial planning and pro-
Knowledge is essential for effective climate cessing of building applications. This includes the
change adaptation – both knowledge about cli- responsibility for taking sea level rise and the
mate change and its impacts, and knowledge resulting storm surges into account.
about how Norwegian society is adapting to cli- In certain geographical areas, climate change
mate change. Adaptation work must always be may result in a higher risk of damage caused by
based on the best available knowledge about cli- natural disasters. Norway has good public and pri-
mate change and how the changes can be vate insurance schemes for insurance against
addressed. The Government therefore intends to such disasters. The Norwegian model provides
ensure that the knowledge base for climate major benefits for society, since it gives effective
change adaptation is strengthened through closer protection against the financial risk associated
monitoring of climate change, continued expan- with extreme weather events.
sion of climate change research and the develop- The local character of the impacts of climate
ment of a national centre for climate services. change puts the municipalities in the front line in
Adaptation policies and measures should build dealing with climate change. Higher precipitation
on the best available knowledge. The Government levels and more intense precipitation will require
therefore plans for regular updates of knowledge efficient systems for stormwater management in
about the impacts of climate change and vulnera- towns, where there are large areas of impermea-
bility and of assessments of adaptation needs in ble surfaces such as roads and pavements. Chal-
Norway. Updates will be considered when sub- lenges will also arise in connection with the devel-
stantial new knowledge is available, particularly opment of port facilities and densification of urban
related to the assessment reports of the Intergov- areas. To enable the municipalities to ensure that
ernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Norwegian communities are resilient and sustain-
Climate projections indicate a trend towards able in the future, adaptation to climate change
more, and more intense, precipitation in Norway, must be made an integral part of municipal
which will result in more stormwater runoff in responsibilities. The Government therefore
urban areas, which may result in urban flooding. intends to draw up central government planning
Figures for insurance claims show that stormwa- guidelines describing how the municipalities and
ter is already causing a great deal of damage, and counties should integrate climate change adapta-
this is increasing, particularly in towns where pop- tion into their land-use and general planning pro-
ulation density is high. Higher precipitation in the cesses. The new guidelines on adaptation will be
future is expected to exacerbate these problems. incorporated into the existing guidelines for cli-
The municipalities are responsible for stormwater mate change mitigation and energy planning.
management, and will have to deal with increasing Information resources, networks for sharing
volumes of stormwater as a result of climate experience, and cooperation with regional authori-
change. The Government will therefore appoint a ties will play an important part in climate change
committee to evaluate the current legislation and adaptation work at municipal level.
as appropriate make proposals for amendments to
provide a better framework for the municipalities.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 7
Climate change adaptation in Norway
1 Introduction
More frequent and more severe extreme Climate change will have direct impacts on the
weather events, such as heat waves, storms and primary industries and other sectors that are
flooding, can be a severe test for society, as Nor- closely linked to the natural resource base. For
way has experienced several times in recent example, new plant and animal diseases may
years. Figures for insurance claims show that reduce agricultural productivity. Higher precipita-
stormwater is already causing a great deal of dam- tion is also expected to give more difficult grow-
age, and this is increasing, particularly in towns ing and harvesting conditions for agriculture. On
where population density is high. Higher precipi- the other hand, a milder climate with more rainfall
tation in the future is expected to exacerbate and a longer growing season may make it possible
these problems. Norway seeks to maintain high to increase crop production and cultivate new spe-
safety standards and ensure that people can feel cies that are generally grown further south today.
safe in their homes and elsewhere. Climate Rising sea temperatures may make it difficult
change will entail a higher risk of landslides and for species that are adapted to cold water to sur-
flooding caused by intense rainfall and problems vive, or cause them to shift their distribution
resulting from stormwater in built-up areas, so northwards. Norway is surrounded by clean, cold
that people will face a constellation of risks differ- fjords and coastal waters, which puts the Norwe-
ent from that they are used to dealing with. Areas gian aquaculture industry in a uniquely favourable
that have previously been viewed as safe may position in Europe. Rising sea temperatures could
become more vulnerable. therefore have major impacts, both negative and
Climate change and social change are taking positive, on current production patterns. How-
place simultaneously, and social change will influ- ever, the fisheries and aquaculture industries are
ence our vulnerability to climate change, particu- used to adapting to wide natural variations in sea
larly in towns. A growing proportion of the Nor- temperature and in the size of fish stocks.
wegian population lives in urban areas, and the When CO2 comes into contact with water, car-
growth of Norwegian towns is expected to con- bonic acid is formed. This process is causing
tinue. All Norway’s largest towns are either on the ocean acidification, which may have major
coast or near lakes and rivers. Higher and more impacts on marine life. The basic link between
intense precipitation will require more efficient greenhouse gas emissions and ocean acidification
systems for stormwater management in towns. is understood, but it is still very uncertain what
Because of sea level rise, challenges will also arise acidification will mean for algae, other plants and
in connection with the development of port facili- animals and thus for marine ecosystems as a
ties. Moreover, there is a great deal of infrastruc- whole. Little is known about how the fisheries and
ture in urban areas – buildings, roads, railways, aquaculture industries will be affected.
sewerage systems and other structures. Infra- Changes in precipitation patterns will put pres-
structure will be vulnerable in areas where cli- sure on the electricity infrastructure. Hydropower
mate change brings more intense precipitation dams and transmission and distribution grids
and a higher probability of local flooding caused must be sufficiently robust to withstand new
by heavy rainfall. The electricity grid and ICT weather patterns. On the other hand, higher pre-
infrastructure are more heavily used in densely cipitation may make it possible to increase elec-
populated areas, and therefore more vulnerable to tricity production, resulting in higher earnings in
unforeseen incidents. Disruption of the electricity the future.
supply or ICT services can have greater conse- In our part of the world, climate change is
quences for more people in a town. Infrastructure most marked in the Arctic, where the temperature
is also essential for the business sector and thus is rising about twice as fast as the global mean
for value creation and workplaces. temperature. If the trend that has been observed
Because the business sector is so varied, there in the Arctic in recent years continues, it will have
will also be wide variation in how climate change major consequences for the population and com-
affects earning power and profitability. Business munities in the region, and particularly for indige-
also has a vital role to play in Norway’s transition nous peoples, whose culture and livelihoods are
to a low-emission economy and in taking into use closely linked to the natural environment.
equipment and production methods that are World food production is vulnerable to climate
adapted to a changed climate. In addition, the change. The IPCC’s Fourth Assessment Report
business sector provides products and services from 2007 highlights the risk of crop damage and
that will play a large part in determining the resil- reduced crop productivity. Food production by the
ience of Norwegian society to a changed climate. fisheries and aquaculture industries may also be
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 9
Climate change adaptation in Norway
affected. At the same time, the Food and Agricul- the impacts of climate change outside Norway are
ture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) not dealt with here, the possible implications for
has warned that by 2050, food production must be poor countries and people nevertheless form a
almost doubled to feed the growing population. backdrop to the present white paper.
There is already a lack of clean drinking water in Climate change adaptation involves recognis-
many parts of the world. Climate change is ing that the climate is changing, understanding
expected to make water shortages more severe in the impacts, and taking steps either to prevent
dry areas. In other areas, flooding may cause damage or to make use of opportunities that may
drinking water quality to deteriorate. Rising sea arise. According to Adapting to a changing cli-
levels are threatening low-lying areas and small mate (NOU 2010: 10), Norway is in a good posi-
island states. These trends will exacerbate many tion to deal with climate change and its impacts,
of the problems poor countries and people are but if we are to maintain a safe and secure society
already facing. The IPCC has pointed out that a in the future, we must incorporate climate change
great deal can be done to reduce risk through adaptation into planning processes today.
adaptation and preventive measures. The present white paper is intended to provide
The UN Secretary-General has repeatedly spo- a brief general account of the implications of cli-
ken about climate change as a threat to continued mate change for Norwegian society and to set out
growth and development in developing countries. a framework that will facilitate the development of
The white paper Towards greener development adaptation strategies and identification of effective
(Meld. St. 14 (2010–2011) states that Norway will adaptation measures by all those who are affected
continue to facilitate adaptation by developing by climate change.
countries to unavoidable climate change. Adapt- The white paper starts with a brief account of
ing to a changing climate (NOU 2010: 10) con- the impacts of climate change in Norway and of
cludes that climate change in other parts of the current adaptation policies in the sectors that are
world will largely have an indirect impact on Nor- most directly affected. It then provides the gen-
way, linked to Norway’s responsibility to support eral policy framework for adaptation in Norway
the poorest and most vulnerable countries in their across sectors.
efforts to adapt to a changing climate. Although
The report Adapting to a changing climate, hundred responses were received during the con-
which describes the impacts of climate change in sultation process after the report was published,
Norway and the need for adaptation, has been an and they also provided important input for the
important basis for this white paper. Almost one white paper.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 11
Climate change adaptation in Norway
2.1 The present climate and historical Precise observations of temperature and pre-
climate variability cipitation from all parts of Norway are available
from the late 1800s onwards. On the basis of these
Norway’s long coastline and extensive mountain observations, we can conclude that mainland Nor-
ranges make the country vulnerable to the forces way has warmed by about 0.8 °C in the past 100
of nature. There has always been considerable cli- years, which is in line with the rise in global mean
mate variability in Norway, and the climate has temperature in the same period. The greatest rise
important consequences for society. The climate in temperature has taken place in the most recent
is milder in Norway than in other areas at the decades. Since the normal period 1961–90, the
same latitude, mainly because the Gulf Stream growing season has become one to two weeks
transports warm water northwards along the Nor- longer in most parts of Norway. The areas that
wegian coast. Prevailing south-westerly winds experience hot days, defined as days when the
carry warm, moist air towards the coast, particu- daily mean temperature is above 20 °C, have
larly in winter, when low pressure systems are expanded considerably.
normally a common phenomenon. However, Nor-
way can also experience cold, dry winters, as it
did for example in 1995–96 and 2009–10. Box 2.2 Natural climate variability
Measurements of temperature, precipitation since the last Ice Age
and wind show wide variation between years and
between decades. This is mainly due to natural After the end of the last Ice Age a little more
variability in the climate system. To see how the than 11 000 years ago, there was a warm
climate changes over time, it is necessary to period in Norway when summer temperatures
define reference periods. These are internation- were probably 1.5–2 °C higher than the nor-
ally defined 30-year periods for calculating climate mal for 1961–90. This allowed pine trees to
«normals». The current climate normal period is grow on parts of the Hardangervidda moun-
1961–90. Discussions of how much the climate tain plateau that are now above the treeline.
has changed are often based on temperature, pre- There were also periods during the Middle
cipitation and wind data for this period. Ages when Scandinavia had a generally mild
climate, which allowed people to settle in
Greenland. During the Little Ice Age in the
mid-1700s, most Norwegian glaciers advanced
to their greatest extent for several thousand
Box 2.1 The North Atlantic
years. The warm period during the Stone Age
Oscillation (NAO) has a strong
was caused by variations in the position of the
influence on Norway’s weather
Earth relative to the Sun. The warm period
The weather in Norway varies considerably during the Middle Ages and the cold period a
from year to year. Whether the winters are little less than 300 years ago were probably
mild and stormy or relatively cold and dry is related to variability in solar activity and the
linked to natural variability in the atmospheric frequency of major volcanic eruptions. Much
circulation over the North Atlantic. This pat- of the natural climate variability is apparent at
tern of variability is known as the North Atlan- the regional rather than the global scale. For
tic Oscillation (NAO), and is an important fac- example, the warm medieval period was most
tor behind the wide natural fluctuations from marked at northern latitudes, while the trop-
year to year in wind, temperature and precipi- ics were probably not much warmer than they
tation throughout mainland Norway. are today.
12 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
NUMBER OF DAYS
>+5
-5 to +5
-20 to -5
-35 to -20
-50 to -35
-65 to -50
-80 to -65
-100 to -80
< -100
Figure 2.1 Map showing projected changes in the number of days of snow cover in Norway,
2071–21001
1 Example of a projection based on emissions scenario B2 (IPCC, SRES B2, medium global growth in emissions) and the global
climate model ECHAM/MPI (relative to the normal period 1961–90).
Source: Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate and Norwegian Meteorological Institute, 2013
14 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
There are large differences between the upper the longer term lead to problems with drinking
and lower limits of the range of precipitation pro- water supplies and agriculture in certain parts of
jections throughout the country. The mean projec- Norway. Summer droughts may increase the need
tion indicates a trend close to that observed dur- for irrigation and the risk of forest fires.
ing the 20th century, while the high projection is
closer to the trend we have observed over the past
20–30 years. In many areas, the high projection Flooding
indicates a rise of more than 50 % in autumn, win- Changes in precipitation and temperature pat-
ter or spring precipitation. terns will also result in changes in flooding pat-
The projections show that the number of days terns in Norway. With higher temperatures,
of heavy precipitation will rise during this century, spring floods will occur earlier, while lower snow-
and that the amount of precipitation that falls on fall will result in smaller snowmelt floods in the
such days may also rise. This applies to all sea- larger rivers. When more precipitation falls in the
sons and all regions. The models do not provide form of rain instead of snow, flooding in late
enough detail for calculations relating to heavy autumn and winter may become more frequent. In
showers, but the results nevertheless indicate those parts of the country where the largest
that the frequency of heavy rain showers may rise floods are caused by rain, floods will become
in the future. This may increase the risk of thun- more severe. More frequent intense rainfall may
derstorms and lightning strikes. cause particular problems in small, fast-flowing
rivers and streams and in urban areas.
Drought
Higher temperatures, increased evaporation and Landslides and avalanches
the possibility of lower rainfall in summer may There are many different types of landslides and
result in longer periods of low flow in rivers, and avalanches, and the causal relationships between
soil moisture and groundwater deficit. This may in these events and climate change are more com-
plex than those between flooding and landslides part of the world to another, and is more rapid at
and avalanches. However, there is a clear link high latitudes, because CO2 dissolves more read-
between precipitation, temperature and wind con- ily in cold water. The current global climate mod-
ditions, and different types of avalanches. Higher els show that acidification is most rapid where
temperatures will reduce the risk of dry snow ava- seawater temperatures are lowest, i.e. in the polar
lanches at altitudes below 500–1000 metres, but regions.
may increase the risk of wet snow avalanches and Acidification is a direct result of the higher
slush flows. A higher frequency of intense precipi- atmospheric concentration of CO2, and is taking
tation events may also increase the risk of land- place independently of the greenhouse effect and
slides and flood-related debris flows. Quick clay global warming. Changes in circulation patterns
slides can also be triggered by prolonged intense in the oceans and atmosphere, and stratification in
rainfall and river erosion, although in most cases the oceans, influence uptake of CO2 in seawater
they are triggered by human activity. Changes in and the degree of acidification in different areas.
precipitation patterns may also increase the risk The pace of ocean acidification is closely
of landslides and avalanches in areas that have not related to trends in CO2 emissions to the atmos-
suffered from them previously. phere. Studies show that in Norwegian waters, pH
can be expected to drop by more than 0.5 units by
the end of this century. The chemical processes
Wind that result in acidification are clearly understood,
Climate models show little or no change in aver- but less is known about what impacts acidification
age wind conditions in Norway up to 2100. How- will have on marine ecosystems.
ever, there are indications that high wind speeds
may become more frequent.
Sea-level rise
Global sea level has risen by about 17 cm in the
Waves past 100 years. In a longer perspective, global sea
A few studies have been conducted of future wave level has risen by 120 metres since the last glacial
conditions based on selected climate projections. maximum about 20 000 years ago, but has been
These show relatively small changes along the more or less stable for the past 4 000 to 5 000
Norwegian coast, with the exception of the North years. Despite this, most of the Norwegian coast
Sea and Skagerrak. Here, it is estimated that the has experienced a net drop in sea level since the
significant wave height of the most extreme waves last Ice Age. This is because the land surface has
will increase by 6–8 %. Because of systematic been rising considerably after the Fennoscandian
weaknesses in the models, it is not yet possible to ice sheet melted around 11 500 years ago, so that
draw any conclusions about how wave conditions the crust was no longer depressed by the weight
may change in the Barents Sea. of the ice and could slowly rebound.
Global mean sea level is now rising by about 3
mm per year. In its Fourth Assessment Report,
Sea temperature the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
There have only been a limited number of studies (IPCC) presented 18–56 cm as a possible range of
involving modelling of changes in sea tempera- global average sea rise up to 2100. However, these
ture in Norwegian waters. It has been estimated figures do not capture the full effect of melting of
that the annual mean temperature of the North the major ice sheets on land. This is a weakness of
Sea may rise by 1.5–2 °C. the underlying data, particularly since more
recent studies show that the Greenland ice sheet
seems to be melting more rapidly than previously
Ocean acidification assumed. The estimates of sea-level rise up to
Since the beginning of the industrial era, the 2100 are very uncertain, primarily because it is
oceans have absorbed about 40 % of the CO2 emis- uncertain how rapidly glaciers and the large ice
sions from fossil fuel consumption and cement sheets in Greenland and Western Antarctica are
production. This is making the world’s seas more likely to melt.
acidic. The rate of acidification varies from one
16 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
Climate change will affect everyone, but the loss of ecosystems throughout the world, flooding
severity of its impacts will vary from one part of in densely populated coastal areas, prolonged
the world to another. There will be wide geo- drought in larger and larger areas, and a decline
graphical variations within Norway as well. In in global food production.
addition, the impacts of climate change will vary As the temperature rises, climate change will
between sectors. Much of Norway’s infrastruc- become more and more marked during the pres-
ture is vulnerable to wind and weather. All bio- ent century. We can expect more frequent
mass-based products (food, fodder, fuel, chemi- extreme weather events such as intense rainfall,
cals and so on) are derived from the natural envi- flooding, and landslides and avalanches. At the
ronment, which also provides many other essen- same time, the impacts of climate change on soci-
tial ecosystem services. ety depend on many different factors that are con-
Many infrastructure assets, such as roads, rail- stantly changing. Climate change adaptation is at
ways, ports and breakwaters, the electricity grid an early stage, and our experience is limited. Our
and buildings, have long operational lifetimes. knowledge and understanding of climate change
The average lifetime of buildings in Norway is 78 and its impacts on nature and society are steadily
years. Many of the buildings being constructed improving.
now will therefore still be standing towards the
end of this century, and will need to be resilient to
changes such as an increase in the intensity of 3.1 The natural environment
precipitation. The adaptive capacity of human
societies depends strongly on how they are organ- Climate change has major impacts on species and
ised, the resources, tools and data at their dis- ecosystems. In addition, it acts together with
posal, and the available knowledge on climate many other pressures such as habitat loss and
change. The adaptive capacity of society is also fragmentation, pollution, harvesting, invasive
important for understanding the impacts of cli- alien species, traffic and other disturbance by
mate change, and for identifying strategies and humans. The overall result can be to put great
specific solutions that can be used to increase cli- pressure on the natural environment. If there are
mate resilience. several significant environmental pressures acting
In recent years there has been a great deal of in the same area at the same time, this increases
research on the effects and impacts of global the risk of negative impacts such as loss of biodi-
warming. We have learnt more about the possible versity. Land use change is considered to be the
impacts of climate change on different elements greatest threat to biodiversity today, but climate
of the natural environment and sectors of society. change is expected to become a more and more
Most analyses are based on the assumption that important factor. In the marine environment, the
global mean temperature will rise by 2–3 °C. We pace of ocean acidification is expected to be par-
know less about what is likely to happen if the ticularly high in cold Arctic waters, which will
global mean temperature rises by as much as 4– alter living conditions for marine organisms.
6 °C. There are several reasons for this. First and The goods and services supplied by the natu-
foremost, there is considerable uncertainty about ral environment are known as ecosystem ser-
the effects and impacts of such a dramatic degree vices, and they can be divided into four categories:
of warming. The more we allow atmospheric – Provisioning services: for example food,
greenhouse gas concentrations to rise, the more energy, fresh water, medicinal resources and
serious the impacts will be. The UN Intergovern- raw materials for building;
mental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has – Regulating services: for example water purifi-
warned that if the two-degree target is not met, cation, air quality regulation, flood control and
there is a risk of mass species extinctions and a erosion prevention;
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 17
Climate change adaptation in Norway
1 2
Rusch, G. M. (2012): Climate and ecosystem services. The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005. Ecosystems and
potential of Norwegian ecosystems for climate mitigation Human Well-being: Biodiversity Synthesis. World Resour-
and adaptation. – NINA Report 791. ces Institute, Washington, DC
18 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
management regime, it is possible to minimise the assessments of species that do not occur naturally
losses and damage caused by climate change. in Norway. They include 134 species that are not
The introduction of invasive alien species is a yet established in Norway, but that are known to
major cause of biodiversity losses today. Some pose an ecological risk in nearby countries, and
new species spread to Norway through natural that may become established here if climate
processes, while others are introduced by human change makes conditions more suitable for them.
activity. These can displace naturally occurring
species and cause irreversible changes in ecosys-
tems. Climate change in different ecosystems
A longer growing season and shorter and Rising temperatures, higher precipitation and
milder winters may provide more suitable condi- more frequent and more severe extreme weather
tions for alien species that are not yet present in affect all ecosystems, from the highest mountains
Norway, and allow species that are already pres- to deep-sea areas off the Norwegian coast. Marine
ent to become established and spread further. For and coastal ecosystems are also under pressure
example, rising sea temperatures have already from ocean acidification and sea level rise.
resulted in changes in marine biodiversity. The Alpine ecosystems are particularly vulnerable
Pacific oyster, which is classified as a very high to higher temperatures because the species found
risk on Norway’s Black List of alien species, has there have nowhere else to move to, and many of
already become established at a number of sites them are adapted to climatic extremes and low
along the southern half of the Norwegian coast- temperatures. In response to the changing cli-
line. A rising volume of shipping in Arctic waters mate, the treeline and vegetation zones are shift-
will also increase the risk of introducing alien spe- ing upwards and the area of suitable habitat for
cies from the Pacific Ocean; one route of introduc- alpine species is shrinking. This affects species
tion is ballast water containing alien species. The such as the Arctic fox, wild reindeer and various
report Alien species in Norway – with the Norwe- alpine plants, which like species in Arctic ecosys-
gian Black List 2012 includes ecological risk tems do not have alternative suitable habitats.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 19
Climate change adaptation in Norway
Figure 3.3 A wild reindeer on winter grazing grounds in the Dovre mountain range
Photo: Tore Wuttudal/Samfoto/NTBscanpix
Competition from new species will also be a threat a result of changes in snow cover and the forma-
– for example, the Arctic fox can be displaced and tion of ice crust may also affect threatened species
outcompeted by the red fox. These changes are such as the Arctic fox and snowy owl. Willow
taking place at the same time as infrastructure grouse and ptarmigan populations may also be
development and other human activities are put- affected because they are more important prey for
ting increasing pressure on mountain. The wild predator species when numbers of small rodents
reindeer, a species for which Norway has a special are low.
international responsibility, is dependent on large Climate change in the Arctic is discussed fur-
continuous areas of natural habitat in the moun- ther in Chapter 9.
tains, and is particularly vulnerable to such Higher temperatures and changes in precipita-
changes. tion patterns are also causing glacier melt in Nor-
Small rodents are key species in alpine ecosys- way. Estimates indicate that the volume of the gla-
tems, and disruption of their population cycles as ciers may drop by 30–40 % by 2100, and that only
20 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
the largest glaciers will still exist by then. In addi- and result in poorer recruitment to the adult popu-
tion to the loss of an important landscape element, lation.
this process will change flow patterns and temper- Many marginal areas of cultural landscape,
ature in glacial meltwater rivers, and thus alter liv- particularly in North Norway, along the coast and
ing conditions for many freshwater species. in the mountains, are becoming overgrown by
For forest ecosystems, the growing season is trees and scrub because they are no longer used
expected to become longer, which will result in and actively managed. This is resulting in the loss
faster growth, a rise in the proportion of trees that of species-rich habitats such as hay meadows and
prefer a warmer climate and perhaps changes in pastures. Climate change may speed up this pro-
the species composition of forests. Rising tempera- cess and thus make active management even
tures may also result in the northward and upward more important.
spread of forest. According to the IPCC, northerly Wetlands perform a number of important func-
forests will be particularly vulnerable to climate tions, including water filtration and purification
change in the long term, but also in the short term and the storage of large quantities of carbon,
if climate change results in more damage by fac- nitrous oxide and methane. Floodplain wetlands
tors such as storms, pest outbreaks, drought and also provide protection against the erosion of river
forest fires. Such factors can be serious threats to banks and reduce the effects of moderate levels of
forest health, vitality and productivity. Research flooding. In addition they are important habitats
shows that forests where biodiversity is higher are for a wide range of species, such as migratory
better able to provide both provisioning and regu- birds that use them as staging areas. Many wet-
lating services, including water purification and lands in Norway, and particularly peatlands, have
the maintenance of biodiversity.3, 4 been damaged and lost through drainage and con-
According to the 2010 Norwegian Red List, version into farmland, the removal of peat for fuel,
about half of all threatened or near-threatened and other types of development. Because water
species in Norway are associated with forests. flow is already high in river systems, higher pre-
However, there is nothing to suggest that the situ- cipitation may increase the transport of soil and
ation of Norway’s threatened and near-threatened sediment, exacerbating erosion. Canalisation of
species has deteriorated between 2006 (when the rivers tends to result in faster water flow, and
previous Red List was published) and 2010. For higher and more intense precipitation can
example, none of the woodpecker species in Nor- increase the risk of flooding.
way are any longer on the Red List: in other words Climate change may influence biomass pro-
they are all considered to have viable populations duction, life cycles and species composition in
in Norway. The goshawk has been downgraded freshwater ecosystems. Together with an increase
from vulnerable in 2006 to near-threatened in in extreme precipitation events and flooding, this
2010. Knowledge about the impacts of climate will result in more runoff, transport of particulate
change on red-listed species is very limited. In matter and leaching of nutrients and other pollut-
general, a warmer climate will make conditions in ants. Higher erosion rates along river banks and
Norway more suitable for species with a southerly runoff of particulate matter and nutrients from
or south-westerly distribution, but more difficult farmland may become a greater problem, and
for species associated with the most northerly for- such tendencies have already been registered in
ests. smaller rivers in Eastern Norway. Particulate mat-
Cervid populations may also be affected by cli- ter and pollutants are transported downstream to
mate change. For example, higher temperatures coastal waters, adding to the overall environmen-
and an earlier spring may mean that moose calves tal pressure on marine ecosystems.
are no longer born at the right time to be able to Temperatures in excess of 20 ˚C can be critical
feed on the most nutritious plant shoots. This will for sensitive and important fish species such as
reduce calf body weight, which in turn will reduce salmon, trout and Arctic char. In parts of Norway,
the probability of their surviving the first winter prolonged periods of summer drought and low
water flow are expected, which will also make
high water temperatures more likely. Rivers that
3
are regulated for hydropower production, where a
Gamfeldt, L. et al. Higher levels of multiple ecosystem ser-
minimum water flow has been fixed, may be par-
vices are found in forests with more tree species. Nature
Communications (2012) ticularly vulnerable.
4
Aerts, R. and Honnay, O. Forest restoration, biodiversity In marine waters, climate change will result in
and ecosystem functioning. BMC Ecol. 2011: 11:29. higher temperatures, and a higher CO2 content in
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 21
Climate change adaptation in Norway
sea water will lead to ocean acidification, which affect species composition and total production in
may have serious impacts on marine ecosystems. marine ecosystems.
A large proportion of CO2 of anthropogenic origin Norway’s coastal waters will be influenced by
is absorbed by the oceans, where it reacts with what happens in the open sea as the climate
water to form carbonic acid, making the seawater changes, and also by land-based processes. There
more acidic (lowering the pH). The changes will has been a decline in several coastal cod stocks in
first become apparent in northern waters, recent years. Several factors are probably involved
because cold water can dissolve more CO2 than in this, one of which may be climate change. A
warmer water. This can have a range of impacts, plan for rebuilding coastal cod stocks has been
particularly on organisms that build calcium car- adopted. It has been suggested that a combination
bonate shells and skeletons. They include coral- of higher water temperature, eutrophication and
line algae, zooplankton, crustaceans, molluscs sediment deposition explains the loss of sugar
and corals. There are many cold-water coral reefs kelp forests (important as a nursery area for
in Norwegian waters, including the world’s larg- coastal cod and other species) from many areas
est known cold-water coral reef complex. Coral along the southern half of the Norwegian coast-
reefs are among the most species-rich ecosys- line. Climate change will have a number of
tems, and are a vital habitat for many types of fish. impacts on wild stocks of anadromous salmonids
Ocean acidification has negative impacts on these at different stages of their life cycle. A higher
ecosystems, and by the end of this century, up to water temperature may for example result in
70 % of all Norway’s coral communities are changes in the numbers and distribution of impor-
expected to show signs of reef erosion. Phyto- tant food species for anadromous salmonids in
plankton form the basis of marine ecosystems, coastal waters and the open sea, and of disease
and the zooplankton that graze on them are essen- organisms and parasites such as salmon lice. On
tial food for many fish species. Some plankton spe- the other hand, higher precipitation will increase
cies have calcareous skeletons, and may not sur- water flow in rivers and the freshwater content in
vive in more acidic seawater. Such changes at low the coastal zone. This may improve conditions for
levels in food chains can have major impacts at juvenile salmonids in rivers and reduce the
higher trophic levels. impacts of salmon lice. It is important to maintain
Higher sea temperatures also enable new spe- the genetic diversity of wild salmon stocks, among
cies to spread into Norwegian waters from further other things by reducing genetic interaction
south, while other species extend their range fur- between farmed and wild salmon, since this will
ther northwards. Newly-hatched fish larvae are ensure that the species as a whole and the differ-
dependent on specific types of plankton. In the ent stocks are more resilient to changes in condi-
North Sea, quantities of the common copepod tions resulting from climate change. Higher pre-
Calanus finmarchicus have dropped considerably cipitation will also result in more runoff from land,
as the sea temperature has risen; at the same which may lead to sediment deposition and pollu-
time, the quantities of a plankton species that pre- tion and subsequently to more frequent algal
fers higher temperatures but is less nutritious blooms, sometimes of toxic algae.
have increased. Spawning of C. finmarchicus and Seabirds along the coast are subject to a range
the commercially most important fish species is of different pressures, many of which are caused
normally synchronised. A decline in C. finmarchi- by human activity – pollution, fisheries, predators,
cus and an increase in plankton species that disturbance by people, habitat degradation and
spawn later in the season may result in a mis- the introduction of alien species. Many seabird
match between spring-spawning fish and their populations have shown a dramatic decline in
prey, and also between seabirds and marine mam- recent years. Moreover, a number of seabirds are
mals and the herring. Some fish species will specialised feeders, which makes them particu-
expand their distribution in response to climate larly sensitive to climate change and changes in
change, while species belonging to Arctic ecosys- the availability of prey species such as sandeels,
tems, such as Arctic char and polar cod, may dis- herring and capelin.
appear from parts of the Barents Sea because of Climate change will also have consequences
changes in food supplies in the form of zooplank- for outdoor recreation. Shorter duration of snow
ton species associated with the marginal ice zone. cover will reduce opportunities for winter sports
However, overall, it is very uncertain how in some southern and low-lying parts of Norway,
changes in the distribution of fish stocks will and may encourage more people to travel to the
mountains to find good snow conditions. The boat-
22 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
already present and new species. Higher tempera- coastal infrastructure. The sea will become
tures, more moisture and a longer growing sea- warmer and also more acidic, as a result of the
son may also result in a more varied weed flora uptake of large quantities of CO2 from the atmos-
that will benefit from the longer growing season, phere. There are signs that fish stocks are shifting
making it necessary to use larger quantities of further northwards and that more southerly spe-
chemical pesticides. Climate change may also cies are moving into Norwegian waters, among
result in changes in the degradation of chemical other things in response to higher seawater tem-
pesticides and their environmental impacts. Fur- peratures. Ocean acidification may have major
thermore, higher precipitation and unstable impacts on calcifying organisms, and thus on food
weather may make it more difficult to carry out chains and the availability of food for species at
plant protection measures at the appropriate time higher trophic levels. Extensive research is being
of year. done in this field, but there is still little detailed
Norway has a short growing season and a cold and reliable knowledge about the impacts these
climate, and agricultural areas are fragmented. changes will have on marine ecosystems. Climate
There is little arable land in relation to the size of change may also affect seafood safety. Inputs of
the population, but large areas of grassland and contaminants and their spread will be changed by
pasture. Norway is a high-cost country, and there higher precipitation and runoff from land, rising
is intense competition for skilled labour. These atmospheric deposition and releases from sedi-
factors, together with economic developments ments and sea ice, and more human activity in the
and global trade agreements, influence the devel- Arctic. Furthermore, rising temperatures and
opment of the Norwegian agricultural sector. ocean acidification may influence the transforma-
A warmer climate is likely to affect animal tion and degradation of contaminants, and there-
health and welfare, and this applies both to live- fore their toxicity.
stock and to wild species. Temperature has a con- There is great uncertainty associated with the
siderable effect, and in particular, winter tempera- economic consequences of climate change for the
tures above a certain threshold may allow a num- fisheries industry, and it is therefore difficult to
ber of organisms that until now have not been make any quantitative estimates for this sector.
found naturally in Norway to become established. More frequent extreme weather events and
Higher moisture levels will have a similar effect sea level rise will have impacts on fisheries and
for certain plant and animal species. Climate aquaculture infrastructure and on coastal roads.
change and globalisation may result in outbreaks Boats, equipment, safety installations and other
of new animal diseases, including diseases that infrastructure may have to withstand more severe
can also be transmitted to people, or allow known weather conditions, and must be designed and
diseases to become established in new areas. Wild dimensioned appropriately. If climate change
animals may also be infected, spreading diseases results in more frequent polar lows and an
over larger areas and making them more difficult increase in wave heights, this may cause prob-
to control. Climate change may particularly affect lems, especially for smaller vessels.
the prevalence and spread of vector-borne dis- For the aquaculture industry, temperature is a
eases that are transmitted by blood-sucking key factor, among other things for growth rates,
organisms such as ticks and mosquitoes. utilisation of feed, algal blooms and disease. Con-
Reindeer husbandry is a particularly vulnera- ditions will become less optimal for farmed spe-
ble sector, and may be severely affected by cli- cies that are adapted to cold water as the sea tem-
mate change. Ice crust may form on grazing areas perature rises. In the long term, rising sea temper-
in winter, entailing a risk of heavy stock losses. ature may result in changes in which species are
Climate change may also bring a greater risk of farmed, which are the best areas for aquaculture
stress caused by insects. On the other hand, a production and where facilities are located.
higher average temperature may mean that sum- The nature and level of the risks associated
mer grazing grounds can be used for longer peri- with communicable diseases in aquaculture spe-
ods of the year. Higher precipitation may also cies may also change with a rise in seawater tem-
result in better food supplies for reindeer because perature. Higher precipitation will result in a
lichens will grow faster, but this is based on the greater proportion of fresh water in the fjords: this
assumption that the lichens are not outcompeted may influence current patterns in these areas and
by other species. thus alter the patterns of spread of pathogens. It
Climate change will have impacts on the may also be necessary to change the composition
marine environment, fisheries, aquaculture and
24 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
of fish feed in response to higher seawater tem- into water pipelines and other parts of the water
peratures. supply infrastructure. There is no satisfactory
Aquaculture facilities may need to meet high information on which parts of the water distribu-
technical standards to withstand extreme weather tion system are most vulnerable. The situation
events. For example, it is important to avoid dam- may deteriorate if the drinking water and sewer-
age that may allow fish to escape from these facili- age pipelines become overloaded.
ties. In future, raw water from drinking water
sources is likely to be of poorer quality, and prob-
lems in the water pipelines are likely to arise more
3.3 Human life and health frequently. The National Institute of Public Health
and the Norwegian Directorate of Health have
Public health is generally good in Norway. This assessed the vulnerability of parts of the drinking
gives us a good starting point for coping with water pipeline system to be high. The vulnerabil-
changes in health risks. Climate-related factors ity of raw water sources and water treatment
always affect people’s health, and climate is plants is also relatively high, but lower than is the
already a general risk factor in Norway. case for water pipelines.6
A warmer climate may affect public health in a Food- and water-borne infections are among
number of ways, but the main effect will be to the commonest infections both in Norway and in
intensify the health risks posed by today’s climate. other parts of the world. They are considered to
The quality of drinking water may become poorer, be particularly sensitive to climate change, and
increasing the risk of waterborne infections. The show seasonal variation)*.
prevalence of communicable diseases may rise as Climate change may also entail a higher risk of
conditions become more suitable for infective vector-borne diseases carried by organisms such
agents such as ticks and mosquitoes. A longer and as mosquitoes, ticks and snails. These diseases
more intense pollen season may aggravate the spread because the distribution of vector species
symptoms of people who suffer from allergic dis- expands with higher temperatures, their popula-
eases. Climate change may also have indirect tions grow, and they are active for longer periods
impacts on health if for example medical transport of the year. Internationally, there is concern that
services are blocked by damage to transport or diseases such as malaria, schistosomiasis, dengue
other critical infrastructure caused by extreme and various types of encephalitis transmitted by
weather events. However, climate change is not mosquitoes or ticks may spread to new areas. As
expected to cause any large changes in mortality regards malaria and dengue, the higher risk is
in Norway. largely associated with travel abroad. It is less
Climate change may result in a negative trend likely that these two diseases will become estab-
in drinking water quality. In general terms, the lished in Norway.
impacts can be split into two categories, impacts An important disease vector in Norway is the
on the raw water and water treatment plants, and sheep tick (Ixodes ricinus), which can carry a
impacts on the distribution infrastructure. About variety of diseases, including borreliosis (or Lyme
90 % of the Norwegian population is supplied with disease), anaplasmosis, tick-borne encephalitis
drinking water from surface water sources. Cli- (TBE), babesiosis and tularaemia. At present,
mate change will probably result in higher aver- sheep ticks are common near the coast from part-
age water temperature, more intense precipitation way up the Oslofjord to Brønnøysund in Nord-
and more frequent flooding in such water sources. land, but there are also scattered records from
These changes will in turn increase the likelihood further inland. In recent years, there has been an
of larger numbers of microorganisms and larger increase in tick numbers, probably associated
amounts of organic material, nutrients and pollut- with higher temperatures, a longer growing sea-
ants in water sources. Norway’s 48 largest water son, an increase in moose, roe deer and red deer
works (which supply more than 20 000 people populations, and overgrowing of open landscapes,
each, and 2.6 million people in total) can maintain which is favourable for ticks.
drinking water quality even if the raw water qual-
ity deteriorates, but this is probably not the case 6
Source: Helsekonsekvenser av klimaendringer i Norge,
for most of the smaller water works. Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU 2010: 10 Norwegian Institute
of Public Health and Norwegian Directorate of Health
During periods of intense precipitation, a rise (Health effects of climate change in Norway. Background
in the groundwater level and water levels in drain- material for Official Norwegian Report on climate change
age channels may result in polluted water seeping adaptation. In Norwegian only)
26 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
Box 3.4 Climate change will influence the risk of food- and water-borne diseases
There are factors along the entire production – Changes in the conditions for algal and plank-
chain from fjord or farm to fork that will be influ- ton growth in the sea and in freshwater may
enced by climate change. increase the risk of diseases associated with
– Certain types of food- and water-borne infe- fish and seafood.
ctions that are not currently common in Nor- – Drinking water quality may deteriorate if hig-
way may become more widespread as far- her precipitation results in overloading of
mers have to operate in warmer and wetter sewerage systems.
conditions. – It will become more difficult to maintain food
– Heat waves or extreme precipitation may be hygiene standards in restaurants, instituti-
stressful for livestock and increase the risk of ons, workplaces and private households
diseases. Heat stress may also cause injury under warmer and wetter conditions
and higher mortality, for example during – Most infectious intestinal disease occurs
transport for slaughter. during the summer months, and a longer
– Climate change may create new ecological summer will result in a higher risk of such
niches, with changes in the bird and mammal infections.
fauna and corresponding changes in the – A higher prevalence of infections in livestock
microbial ecology, which may entail a higher may result in higher consumption of antibio-
risk of disease among livestock as well. This tics, increasing the risk that resistance will
in turn may result in a higher risk of patho- develop. More widespread resistance to anti-
gens in food. biotics will make it more difficult to treat infe-
ctions both in livestock and in humans.
Source: Helsekonsekvenser av klimaendringer i Norge, Bakgrunnsmateriale til NOU Klimatilpasning, 2010, Norwegian Insti-
tute of Public Health and Directorate of Health. (Health effects of climate change in Norway. Background material for Official
Norwegian Report on climate change adaptation. In Norwegian only.)
The duration of the growing season and snow Air quality may also be affected by climate
cover are probably the key climatic factors in change. A longer pollen season and the introduc-
determining tick distribution. According to projec- tion of new aeroallergens as species spread north-
tions of the length of the growing season in the wards with the rising temperatures will result in a
period up to 2100, all lowland areas of Norway higher risk of symptoms in the allergic population
except in the far north will probably provide suita- and a higher prevalence of pollen allergies in Nor-
ble conditions for ticks. It is therefore assumed way. It is considered likely that the quantity and/
that the prevalence of tick-borne diseases may or potency of important pollen types will increase,
increase with the expansion of suitable tick habi- and that the distribution of existing and perhaps
tat. new types of pollen-producing plants will expand.
Higher temperatures and a greater risk of heat Air pollution may worsen; for example, there may
waves may entail greater health risks in future, be higher levels of ground-level ozone and
although this will probably not have major impli- changes in the composition of airborne particu-
cations for public health in Norway in the near late matter.
future. The increase in mortality associated with Climate change may entail a greater risk of
heat waves indicates that people with chronic dis- flooding and landslides or avalanches later in the
eases and the elderly are most vulnerable. A rise present century. This may result in such events in
in the risk of prolonged heat waves in Norway is locations where they have not previously
to be expected, but there have been no studies of occurred, which will entail a greater risk to
the possible effects on public health. On the other human life and health. However, precisely how
hand, a reduction in cold-related mortality is and to what extent climate change will influence
expected, since the risk of prolonged extreme this risk is uncertain.
cold will be reduced as a result of global warming.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 27
Climate change adaptation in Norway
1961-1990 2071-2100
0-30 0-30
31-60 31-60
61-90 61-90
91-120 91-120
121-150 121-150
151-175 151-175
176-180 176-180
181-210 181-210
211-225 211-225
Figure 3.5 Tick distribution is related to the length of the growing season
The left-hand map shows the length of the growing season in Norway in the period 1961–90. The distribution of sheep ticks today
coincides with the area where the growing season lasts for 176–180 days or more (coloured orange to red on the map). The right-
hand map shows projections for the length of the growing season in the period 2071–2100, according to the model Hadley A2 2071–
2100. This indicates that the growing season will last for 176–180 days or more in almost all lowland areas of Norway except in the
far north.
Source: Norwegian Meteorological Institute 2013
ICT infrastructure have a short lifetime and this lighting facilities may suffer from erosion. Wet
infrastructure has a high adaptive capacity. Priori- runways reduce braking action and higher precip-
ties, divisions of responsibility and the resources itation levels will make drainage for stormwater
available for adaptation also influence the degree runoff more important but also more difficult. At
of vulnerability, and these factors make for exam- some airports more frequent temperature fluctua-
ple the water and sewerage sector especially vul- tions around freezing point and more precipitation
nerable. in the form of snow will pose problems for winter
Society is dependent on a well-functioning maintenance and snow clearance. Changes in
transport system. It is essential to avoid disrup- wind strength and direction, turbulence and per-
tion to road, rail, sea and air traffic for individuals, haps more frequent extreme low pressure events
emergency services, businesses and other key may affect air traffic.
services and actors. Norway’s power supply is primarily based on
The problems caused by the current mainte- hydropower, and the country has about 1 700
nance backlog in the land transport sector, both hydropower dams. These run-of-river or storage
roads and railways, will be intensified by climate hydropower systems deliver electricity through
change. In recent years flooding, landslides and the nationwide electricity grid. Higher precipita-
avalanches have in some cases had serious conse- tion resulting from climate change will probably
quences for the transport network and shown that make it possible to increase electricity production,
roads and railways are already vulnerable and will while higher temperatures may reduce the
be even more vulnerable to future climate change. demand for electricity. The electricity supply sys-
Higher precipitation levels will put more pressure tem is designed to withstand extreme weather
on drainage systems. The higher risk of flooding, events. This is a critical infrastructure, since soci-
landslides and avalanches is a threat to traffic ety depends on a secure and stable power supply
safety, and may increase the frequency of disrup- in order to function. Major disruption of the power
tion and cause considerably more damage to both supply would have significant economic conse-
roads and railways. Sea level rise and storm quences and pose a threat to life and health.
surges may cause wave erosion and inundation, Today the power supply system is vulnerable
which may disrupt traffic and lead to erosion dam- to climate conditions, and about half of all power
age. This could also increase the risk of water cuts and disruption of the electricity grid are
flowing into undersea tunnels, and increase weather-related. While lightning is the most com-
stresses and erosion of road embankments and mon cause of power cuts, these can also be caused
bridge foundations. by other factors such as overgrown vegetation,
Maritime traffic along the coast is important fallen trees, snow and ice. However, the NOU
for Norway, and is dependent on infrastructure in committee considers that the electricity sector
the form of fairways, lighthouses, buoys, break- infrastructure is well adapted to today’s climate.
waters, and ports and their associated infrastruc- Some of the factors that constitute risks to the
ture. The wind, wave and current conditions along electricity supply today may become more pro-
the Norwegian coast already pose problems for nounced in future. Higher humidity, higher pre-
maritime transport, and climate change may cipitation, a longer growing season and more
aggravate these conditions and increase the loads rapid shifts between frost and thaws and wet and
and wear on lighthouses, buoys, breakwaters and dry periods may increase the need for mainte-
quays. Sea level rise, storm surges, ocean acidifi- nance. A higher frequency of extreme weather
cation and harsher weather conditions will make events involving lightning strikes, icing on power
infrastructure operation and maintenance a more lines in areas that previously had stable cold con-
challenging task. Navigation infrastructure, ditions, extreme heat, flooding, landslides and
breakwaters, port facilities and so on must be avalanches, rising sea levels and less stable sea-
designed to withstand more rapid corrosion as a sonally frozen ground may result in more frequent
result of ocean acidification. damage. The higher risk of landslides and ava-
Norwegian airports will be affected by climate lanches could affect the safety of dams, since a
change in different ways and to different degrees. slide into a reservoir can cause damage to dams
Many airports in coastal areas are situated on flat and other infrastructure.
land close to the shore or open water, which Climate change will also result in a need for
makes them vulnerable to the effects of higher new power lines, for example to take account of
water levels and high waves. The infrastructure of increased hydropower production.
these airports is vulnerable, and safety zones and
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 29
Climate change adaptation in Norway
Buildings account for a large proportion of Higher precipitation will result in a warmer,
society’s investment in infrastructure. In 2008 more humid climate and an increase in the decay
there were 3.8 million buildings in Norway, 40 % of of wooden materials. Today 615 000 buildings in
which were residential. About 80 % of today’s Norway are in the high decay hazard category.
buildings will still be standing in 2050. Buildings According to SINTEF Building and Infrastruc-
are vulnerable to a number of different types of ture, this figure will increase substantially. By
natural hazards, including those caused by 2100, a total of 2.4 million of today’s buildings will
extreme weather events. In 2011 insurance com- be in the high decay hazard category, and this will
panies registered 37 113 cases of damage result- include to virtually all the buildings in Oslo, which
ing from water entering buildings, and according are currently in the moderate decay hazard cate-
to Finance Norway, the compensation payments gory (just over 125 000 buildings). In Hordaland
amounted to a total of NOK 2.2 billion. Many of about 190 000 buildings, or well over half the total
the risks to buildings posed by climate factors may stock, are currently in areas where the decay haz-
be intensified by climate change. The most impor- ard is high, and this will increase to about 220 000
tant variables will be higher precipitation, expo- of the existing buildings. In addition, a large pro-
sure to humidity, and changes in wind patterns. portion of the building stock in Buskerud,
Sea level rise and higher precipitation will mean Oppland and Hedmark will be affected by a rise in
that humidity becomes more of a problem, and the annual precipitation of more than 25 %.7
risk of exposure to decay is expected to increase In Norway almost 90 % of the population are
in large parts of the country. A higher frequency connected to the water supply and sewerage sys-
of extreme weather events such as storm surges, tems, which are municipally owned. Well-function-
landslides and avalanches, and flooding will pose ing water supply and sewerage systems are essen-
risks to buildings in exposed locations, and the
large maintenance backlog, especially in the 7
Source: Lisø, K.R. and Kvande, T.: Klimatilpasning av byg-
municipal building stock, will increase the risks. ninger (Climate proofing buildings, in Norwegian), SIN-
TEF Building and Infrastructure, Oslo 2007.
1961-90 2021-50
tial to health and for maintaining the natural envi- ability. Others, such as many of the service indus-
ronment and societal functions in general. Even tries, will primarily be affected if climate change
today, many municipalities suffer from flood and leads to disruption of services on which they
water damage and sewage backup resulting from depend. At the same time the business sector is a
intense precipitation events. This may be due to key actor in efforts to make society more resilient
under-dimensioning of the sewerage system and to climate change, since it is businesses that are
increased densification of urban areas, which in responsible for developing and constructing build-
turn results in overloading of the system. Studies ings and other infrastructure, and thus supply
indicate that there is a maintenance backlog in goods and services that will be substantially
these sectors, and the problem of poorer quality affected by climate change.
raw water in drinking water sources is growing, All businesses will be indirectly affected by cli-
due to higher temperatures and precipitation and mate change through the vulnerability of services
greater volumes of runoff. Climate change will on which they depend. This applies among other
increase the risk of disruption of water supply and things to infrastructure, such as communications
sewerage services. More stormwater runoff is (roads, railways, air and maritime transport),
also likely to lead to overloading of sewerage water supply and sewerage, power supplies, the
pipes and waste water treatment plants. If large electricity grid, ICT infrastructure, and buildings
volumes of stormwater enter the sewerage net- and equipment, all of which are largely outside
work, unnecessarily large volumes of water have the control of the individual business. Resilient
to be processed through the sewerage treatment infrastructure, communications and energy sup-
system, resulting in lower treatment efficiency. plies are essential for the maintenance of the wel-
Intense precipitation events and flooding may fare society, for future value creation and for the
increase the pollution risk due to polluted water competitiveness of the business sector. Thus the
from submerged pipes and cisterns seeping into impacts of climate change on society’s infrastruc-
the distribution network for drinking water. ture in the broadest sense will also have conse-
Climate change may also put pressure on ICT quences for the business sector.
infrastructure, in the form of flooding, landslides, The pace of restructuring in the business sec-
avalanches and icing of power lines. However, this tor influences the degree to which the various
sector is less vulnerable than many other infra- businesses are affected by climate change and
structure areas since new technology is continu- how rapidly they can adapt to new climatic condi-
ally being developed and installations upgraded. tions. This applies particularly to service indus-
The sector is fairly well adapted today, but in the tries such as the tourist industry. However, in the
long run measures to adapt to climate change and next few decades the industrial structure will have
ensure delivery will have to be considered. Nor- changed dramatically; for example, two of three
way’s widespread use of new and existing ICT new Norwegian businesses have a lifetime of less
technology gives the country a high degree of than five years, and in 50 years’ time most of them
resilience. ICT systems play an important role in will probably no longer exist and have been
ensuring efficient electricity distribution, and ICT replaced by new ones and new markets. In the
tools also play an important role in early warning course of this century the technology and prod-
and emergency response systems. ucts used by businesses today will have been
replaced several times. This flexibility and adap-
tive capacity is likely to make businesses more
3.5 The Norwegian business sector resilient to climate change.
The need and capacity to restructure in
The Norwegian business sector consists of more response to climate change vary from sector to
than 350 000 enterprises in many different sectors sector. The primary and related industries such as
located in all parts of the country. The effects of fish processing will be directly affected by climate
climate change on the various sectors will depend change and will have to undergo major adapta-
on the nature and location of the sector and its tions in order to maintain their earning power and
connection to the necessary infrastructure. The profitability under new climatic conditions. For
diversity of the business sector makes it difficult example, certain businesses might need to adapt
to gain an overview of the all the problems related by moving northwards from the coast of Western
to climate change faced by the sector as a whole. Norway to follow shifts in the distribution of
In some sectors, such as forestry, climate change resources such as fish stocks. This also applies to
will alter the framework for production and profit- service industries that are directly related to the
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 31
Climate change adaptation in Norway
primary industries and outdoor industries. For change adaptation by imposing requirements on
example, a shorter winter season will in some policy-holders, including businesses, to take pre-
areas have a significant impact on the operation of ventive measures to reduce damage resulting
ski resorts and the hotel industry in winter sports from climate change. The role of the insurance
areas. Thus climate change could have serious sector is described in more detail in Chapter 6.5.
impacts on small local communities reliant on a
single industry. Such situations will require high
adaptive capacity and measures to facilitate knowl- 3.6 Cultural heritage
edge-based business development.
However, climate change may also provide Tangible cultural heritage is a non-renewable
opportunities for new business activities and value resource that allows us to understand and appreci-
creation; for example, it could increase profitability
in the electricity sector. An analysis conducted in
connection with the report Adapting to a changing Box 3.5 Cultural monuments, sites
climate (NOU 2010: 10) estimated that production and environments
will increase by 7–22 % in the second half of this
century. On the basis of certain assumptions about The Cultural Heritage Act defines cultural
future prices, this means that revenues from monuments, sites and environments as «all
hydropower production could increase by NOK 5– traces of human activity in our physical envi-
16 billion annually. Another example is the melting ronment, including places associated with his-
of the Arctic sea ice, which could open up new torical events, beliefs and traditions.» The indi-
opportunities for maritime transport. Ice-free vidual cultural monument or site is usually
routes across the Arctic Ocean and through the part of a larger context that is also meaningful:
Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage a cultural environment. In addition, a cultural
provide new opportunities for maritime transport environment may consist of elements that are
in polar waters. For example, for ships sailing from not in themselves important but that taken
Asia to Europe, the Northeast Passage would be together form a visual or functional whole of
about 40 % shorter than the route through the Suez great cultural and historical value.
Canal, and bunker oil consumption about 20 % More than 250 000 archaeological monu-
lower. However, the volume of international com- ments and sites have been registered in Nor-
mercial maritime traffic in the future is uncertain. way, but there are far more that are unknown.
Proximity to the Arctic will probably give Norwe- Some, like burial mounds, rock carvings and
gian companies a competitive edge and increase animal trapping systems, are easily visible.
the use of ports in North Norway. However, a Others are hidden below the ground, like
greater volume of maritime traffic in the Arctic will stone-age sites and medieval streets and
pose a risk to the vulnerable environment. alleys, or under water, like sacrificial offerings
Extreme weather conditions, the period of dark- and submerged sites. Monuments and sites
ness in winter, incomplete mapping, inadequate dating back to before 1537 are automatically
communication systems and ice-covered waters protected under the Cultural Heritage Act.
are constant challenges. The remoteness of these The same applies to Sami monuments and
areas also makes search and rescue operations, sites that are more than 100 years old, and pre-
and preparedness and response to acute pollution, 1946 structures and sites in Svalbard.
difficult and costly. As for transport in other waters, In Norway there are around 6 000 buildings
ensuring safe maritime transport in polar waters that are protected under the Cultural Heritage
requires rules for ship standards and crew qualifi- Act and about another 5 500 in museums.
cations, and the necessary maritime infrastructure. Around 1 000 churches are protected or regis-
The insurance sector is in a unique position tered and managed in the same way as protected
because insurance products are directly affected buildings. In some cases the surroundings are
by climate change. By assuming the risk of also protected, for example historic gardens or
unforeseen damage, including that related to natu- valuable cultural landscapes. In addition a large
ral hazards, on behalf of other actors, insurance number of buildings are regulated for protection
companies play a potentially important role in under the Planning and Building Act. Around
reducing vulnerability and promoting progress 375 000 buildings were built before 1900. Most
towards a climate-resilient society. The sector also of them have no statutory protection, but many
has the potential to create incentives for climate of them are historically important.
32 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
tural heritage sites, increased loss of such sites, threaten built-up areas close to the coast and
changes in conservation conditions and new finds other elements of the cultural heritage in exposed
of archaeological artefacts and sites. areas. Extreme rainfall events are likely to lead to
A higher frequency of extreme weather events flooding and will threaten urban landscapes with
such as flooding, landslides and avalanches, inadequate storm drain systems.
storms and intense precipitation will increase the More gradual processes of climate change will
risk of damage to buildings and archaeological put more pressure on the cultural heritage. A
material. Global mean sea level is now rising by more humid climate will increase the risk of bio-
about 3 mm per year, and in the coming century logical, physical and chemical decomposition of
will probably rise by considerably more than this. cultural monuments, and wooden buildings and
Rising sea levels and larger storm surges will elements will be at higher risk of decay and dam-
Figure 3.8 Supports for an aerial cableway from a coal mine in Svalbard, part of its protected
cultural heritage.
Photo: Ministry of the Environment
34 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
age from pests. About four of five protected build- tected buildings in Norway are situated in existing
ings in Norway are constructed of wood, and in or previous farmland that is at high risk of becom-
virtually all of the remaining buildings wood is ing overgrown. Once woodland has encroached
used in roof structures or beams. on heritage sites, there is a risk of damage from
Higher temperatures lead to thawing of the per- tree roots or from windthrow, which puts build-
mafrost, which is already a threat to the conserva- ings at risk of physical decomposition and decay.
tion of archaeological remains in Svalbard. Coastal Another effect of overgrowing can be to alter the
erosion in Svalbard is also increasing due to the historical landscape context of cultural monu-
declining extent of the sea ice. Because so much of ments, obscuring their original function in the
the cultural heritage in the archipelago is located landscape. This reduces people’s enjoyment and
on the coast, coastal erosion is a serious threat. consequently the utility value of the site, which in
Svalbard’s cultural heritage used to be referred to turn reduces opportunities for value creation and
as being frozen in time, or preserved through natu- learning opportunities for the public.
ral freeze-drying processes in the cold climate. There is hard evidence of the climate change
Archaeological excavations of whalers’ graves now taking place in the form of the hundreds of
undertaken in the 1980s revealed 17th- and 18th- archaeological artefacts that are being exposed by
century corpses that still had skin and hair and the melting snowpack in the mountains of Nor-
almost intact woollen clothing. However, due to the way. They date from different historical periods,
warmer and more humid climate, many of the and the oldest, which have been discovered in the
archaeological remains in the Arctic have now Jotunheimen mountains, date back more than
reached a critical point as regards conservation. 3 000 years. In earlier historical periods people
A milder climate will prolong the growing sea- were drawn to the mountain snowpack and gla-
son, speeding up vegetation growth so that areas ciers by the opportunities for reindeer hunting,
around heritage buildings and sites and cultural and most of the finds are linked with this activity.
landscapes will become more rapidly overgrown. They are mainly made of organic materials that
A large number of archaeological sites and pro-
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 35
Climate change adaptation in Norway
change. However, their history of harvesting natu- important to ensure that the goal of maintaining
ral resources despite climate and weather variabil- the foundation for traditional Sami industries can
ity has given them a sound foundation of experi- be met and to recognise the value of traditional
ence and knowledge. The Sami have always knowledge in addressing climate change. Compe-
shown considerable flexibility in adapting and tence- and capacity-building within the Sami com-
diversifying their traditional economic activities. munity will also be essential to meet these chal-
Extensive, diversified harvesting of both terres- lenges. Sound methods of gathering and using tra-
trial and marine natural resources has allowed ditional knowledge and capacity should be devel-
them to adapt to fluctuations in the resource base, oped to equip the Sami to take advantage of any
and is the reason why so many Sami combine dif- new opportunities that may arise in traditional
ferent income-generating activities such as agri- occupations, while adapting to the new needs that
culture, fisheries, reindeer husbandry and har- may result from climate change.
vesting other resources from uncultivated areas. The overriding question from the perspective
Combinations that include paid employment and of the Sami and other indigenous peoples in the
tourism are becoming increasingly common. This Arctic is how to equip these communities to
flexibility in their use of traditional resources by address and adapt to the inevitable climate change
combining different forms of harvesting and har- while at the same time safeguarding the role and
vesting from different areas has made the Sami value of their traditional knowledge. Care must
highly adaptable. therefore be taken to ensure that climate change
It is important in the context of climate change adaptation measures do not weaken the founda-
adaptation to consider how various measures will tion for traditional Sami industries and thereby
affect indigenous communities. For example, it is undermine Sami culture.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 37
Climate change adaptation in Norway
and to integrate climate change considerations climate change will gradually become more
into planning and decision-making processes. The marked and will influence the nature and level of
authorities have management tools to facilitate the the risks in many areas of Norwegian society. Risk
incorporation of a range of different considera- assessments and planning today are largely based
tions into planning and decision-making. Wher- on historical data on the climate and natural haz-
ever relevant, climate change considerations ards such as flooding, landslides and avalanches.
should be integrated into management tools used Many of the decisions we make today will have
as a basis for general planning processes. implications far into the future. For example,
Climate change adaptation must be made an buildings have an average lifetime of 78 years, and
integral part of the work of actors in various fields, will therefore have to withstand the climatic condi-
and at the same time it is important to ensure that tions that are expected by the end of the present
everyone can use the same common knowledge century. The same applies to areas that are to be
base. The authorities also need to provide consist- zoned as residential areas today. It is therefore
ent guidelines on how different sectors, and par- important to ensure that climate projections are
ticularly the municipalities, should address cli- part of the basis for assessments made in connec-
mate change. tion with investments and planning processes with
a long time horizon. In this context «a long time
horizon» is related to the time frame of the availa-
4.2 Key considerations in climate ble climate projections. In general, climate projec-
change adaptation tions for Norway are made for 2050 and 2100. To
ensure that adaption measures are based on pro-
In Adapting to a changing climate, the committee jections, it is sensible to take climate change into
points out that if climate change considerations account in investments and planning processes
are not incorporated into long-term planning and with a time frame extending up to or beyond 2050,
decision-making, this may increase the risk of in other words with a lifetime of 30 years or more.
damage resulting from climate change and entail For investments and planning processes with a
substantial costs. The committee therefore shorter time frame, it will be sufficient to use the
emphasised the importance of starting adaptation climate today as a basis.
work now. Adaptation must be based on the Adapting to a changing climate takes into
knowledge available at any given time. There is account that it may not be possible to limit the rise
considerable uncertainty about climate change in global mean temperature to two degrees Cel-
and the impacts it will have on nature and society, sius, which is the international target. There is a
and our knowledge of these issues will change risk that global greenhouse gas emissions may
during the present century. The level of uncer- continue to rise and that the world will not achieve
tainty in climate projections can be reduced the two-degree target, even though Norway and
through research, but there will always be an ele- practically every other country in the world have
ment of uncertainty in connection with the future adopted it. As a precautionary approach, the Gov-
climate. The climate system is complex, and emis- ernment wishes assessments of the impacts of cli-
sion trends are uncertain. Moreover, it is not only mate change to be based on figures from the high
the climate that will change in the period up to end of the range of national climate projections.
2100; society will also change in ways that influ- However, when decisions are made in individual
ence the impacts of climate change in different cases, climate change considerations and underly-
sectors. Adapting to a changing climate also points ing assumptions about the degree of climate
out that although the level of uncertainty associ- change must be weighed against other considera-
ated with planning processes is increasing as a tions of the public interest, the lifetime of the
result of climate change, the uncertainty associ- development in question and its importance to
ated with future climate change is not does not society.
justify delaying adaptation. Even if figures from the high end of the range
The time horizon is an important factor in cli- of national climate projections are used to assess
mate change adaptation. Incorporating climate the impacts of climate change on an investment or
change considerations into planning processes is a planning process, climate change considerations
primarily necessary in long-term planning . The will in the individual case need to be weighed
climate has changed substantially in Norway over against other important considerations such as
the past 100 years – for example, precipitation has the implications for life and health or material
risen by about 20 %. In the course of this century, assets, and what level of risk is considered to be
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 39
Climate change adaptation in Norway
ures have been implemented. For example, all headed by the Ministry of the Environment. This
municipalities and counties are now offered ministry is responsible for Norway’s overall cli-
courses in climate change adaptation, and Nor- mate policy, including climate change adaptation,
way’s 13 largest cities and urban areas, which are and is also the central government planning
involved in the cooperation programme «Cities of authority. Knowledge about climate change is the
the Future», have established climate change common starting point for both mitigation and
adaptation plans. Various sectoral authorities have adaptation to climate change.
carried out surveys and made changes to require- In 2007, the Directorate for Civil Protection
ments and guidelines in order to take future cli- and Emergency Planning was given time-limited
mate change into account. responsibility for coordinating the work of central
Climate change adaptation involves many dif- government authorities on climate change adapta-
ferent central government authorities. The Direc- tion. The secretariat for this five-year project,
torate for Civil Protection and Emergency Plan- which was under the directorate, has focused
ning is responsible for assessing the risks associ- especially on facilitating the efforts of municipal
ated with different types of natural hazards, and authorities and others to address the long-term
draws up guidelines for making risk assessments challenges that climate change will bring. The
in connection with land-use planning. The Norwe- secretariat’s efforts have included information
gian Water Resources and Energy Directorate is work, courses and the development of a national
the government agency responsible for mapping portal that can be accessed from the Govern-
the risk of landslides and avalanches and flood- ment’s website. The portal provides relevant infor-
prone areas, for dam safety and for calculations of mation on climate change adaptation for public
flooding levels for use in designing infrastructure authorities, companies and other interested par-
near river systems. The Directorate for Nature ties, examples of practical adaptation work and
Management1 monitors and assesses the impacts links to key actors that can provide advice and
of climate change on the natural environment, the guidance within specific fields. The secretariat has
Norwegian Mapping Authority has important also been responsible for coordination of work on
functions relating to sea level rise, and the Climate climate change adaptation in the «Cities of the
and Pollution Agency evaluates current knowl- Future» cooperation, which includes Norway’s 13
edge about climate change, facilitates municipal largest cities. In addition, the secretariat has
planning for climate change and administers the established cooperation on climate change adapta-
legislation relating to water supplies and sewer- tion with Portugal, Latvia, Hungary and Slovakia
age. The Norwegian Building Authority and the under the EEA and Norway Grants scheme.
Norwegian Public Roads Administration are The organisation of central government agen-
responsible for assessing the implications of cli- cies’ adaptation work was evaluated in Adapting to
mate change for infrastructure such as buildings a changing climate, which points out that a flexi-
and roads. A number of other central government ble, project-based organisational model has a
authorities are also involved in climate change number of advantages in this new and unfamiliar
adaptation. In addition to ensuring the necessary area. However, the model also has limitations in
efforts within their own organisation, they are the longer term, particularly as regards predicta-
required to provide information to municipalities, bility and a long-term approach. The experience
counties and the general public. gained from the five-year project during which the
It is both practical and effective for municipal, Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency
county and central government authorities to base Planning provided the secretariat will be evalu-
climate change adaptation on a common knowl- ated, and after this it will be decided where the
edge base and to coordinate their efforts closely. responsibility for coordination of climate change
To promote coordination at the central govern- adaptation at directorate level is to be placed. The
ment level, a working group including representa- evaluation will include responsibility for work
tives of all the relevant ministries was established, relating to storm water management and sea level
rise. The Government will give a fuller account of
1
Since the white paper was published, the Directorate for how climate change adaptation at directorate level
Nature Management and the Climate and Pollution Agency is to be coordinated in connection with the 2014
have been merged to form the new Norwegian Environ-
ment Agency. budget.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 41
Climate change adaptation in Norway
change. The Institute of Marine Research has sim- services. The Water Resources and Energy Direc-
ilar responsibilities for the marine climate, from torate is Norway’s national centre of expertise for
the open sea to coastal waters and the fjords. The hydrology, and monitors hydrological changes,
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directo- including flooding.
rate has national responsibility for hydrological One important reason for establishing a centre
and cryosphere monitoring. All three institutions for climate services is to provide support for work
provide projections and information on various cli- on climate change adaptation by the municipali-
mate variables to municipalities, agencies and ties and sectoral authorities. The national centre
research institutions. for climate services is also one of the specific
Data tailored for specific purposes, combined measures recommended by the committee in the
with information about today’s climate, has report Adapting to a changing climate. The frame-
proved to be a good basis for assessments by com- work for the new centre must enable it to provide
panies and municipalities of how climate change practical support and make it easier for the munic-
will affect their activities in different areas. The ipalities to carry out the necessary impact assess-
report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU ments and climate change adaptation measures.
2010: 10) highlights the need to improve dissemi- Norway’s centre for climate services should
nation of data on both today’s and the future cli- be developed in a way that enables those who are
mate. The Government agrees with this conclu- responsible for risk assessment and for adapting
sion, and will step up the dissemination of relevant their activities to climate change to carry out their
climate data as a basis for assessing the impacts of work as effectively as possible and with clear tar-
climate change in various fields. The municipali- gets.
ties have a particular need for this kind of informa- The centre will:
tion. – make available and coordinate climate and hyd-
The term «climate services» is used to mean rological data and other information that is cur-
the delivery of climate information to different rently held by many different central govern-
users. This is a high-priority field internationally. ment agencies;
It is high on the agenda of the EU’s framework – improve dissemination of climate data and hyd-
research programmes, and research on climate rological projections for use by the public admi-
services is one of the main activities of the new nistration, especially at municipal level;
joint programming initiative JPI Climate. The – analyse how the consequences of climate
World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has change will vary from one part of Norway to
for a number of years been focusing on capacity another, as a basis for the development of cli-
building and international assistance to enable mate indexes and climate zones for use in
developing countries to build up climate services. practical climate change adaptation, see Chap-
Norway has played a key role in this vital interna- ter 8.5 on infrastructure and the 2012 white
tional work. paper on building policy (Gode bygg for eit betre
According to the WMO, climate services samfunn Meld. St. 28 (2011–2012), in Norwe-
include a wide range of activities intended to gen- gian only);
erate and make available information on the his- – share its expertise on climate change through
torical, current and future climate and its impacts advice and courses held in cooperation with
on human and natural systems. Climate services other authorities.
also include information and support that can help
users to choose the right product for the decisions The centre will be developed in close dialogue
they need to make and explain the uncertainty with its users. A pilot project in Troms county,
associated with the information provided. also involving the Directorate for Civil Protection
In Norway, cooperation on the development of and Emergency Planning, is currently developing
a national centre for climate services was estab- and evaluating products that municipalities can
lished in 2001, involving the Norwegian Meteoro- use to incorporate climate change into their plan-
logical Institute, the Norwegian Water Resources ning activities. Information technology plays an
and Energy Directorate and the Bjerknes Centre essential role in climate research. Basic climate
for Climate Research, in Bergen. The Bjerknes research, including modelling of the climate sys-
Centre has Norway’s leading expertise on climate tem, requires high-performance computing
modelling and has provided important input to the resources. The use and development of ICT tools
IPCC’s work. The Meteorological Institute has and products will be a key task for the centre.
overall responsibility for the centre for climate
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 47
Climate change adaptation in Norway
The national centre for climate services will from a wide range of institutions with relevant
provide a better basis for practical work on cli- expertise. Up till now, it has been run by the
mate change adaptation. Climate projections for national secretariat for climate change adaptation
Norway need to be updated regularly as new in the Directorate for Civil Protection and Emer-
results become available from the global climate gency Planning.
models. The Climate and Pollution Agency is Norway’s
The expertise developed by the centre for cli- national focal point for the IPCC, and is responsi-
mate services will also be relevant in other con- ble for coordinating all processes relating to the
texts, for example as a basis for integrating cli- IPCC’s work and for providing information on the
mate considerations more fully as an element of results. The IPCC assesses scientific information
development policy. on the climate system and ways of mitigating cli-
mate change and adapting society to both gradual
climate change and extreme weather events. The
Other sources of relevant information Climate and Pollution Agency is therefore in a
Many other research institutes, universities and good position to assisting in the development of
directorates also have relevant expertise and pro- the Norwegian knowledge base for climate
vide information on how the projected climate change adaptation.
change will affect Norway. They include the Cli- The Climate and Pollution Agency is responsi-
mate and Pollution Agency, the Public Roads ble for performance monitoring of Norway’s work
Administration, the Institute of Marine Research, on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and for
the Norwegian Polar Institute, the National Rail international reporting. The Agency is also
Administration, the Norwegian Institute for Air responsible for ensuring climate change adapta-
Research, the National Institute of Nutrition and tion in the sectors for which it is responsible, for
Seafood Research, the Norwegian Forest and example water supply and sewerage and landfills.
Landscape Institute, and Cicero (Center for Inter- This puts the Agency in a good position to con-
national Climate and Environmental Research). sider the links between mitigation and adaptation.
Information is already being shared with others to The Climate and Pollution Agency is also respon-
some extent. A great deal of information is col- sible for assessing whether climate change affects
lected together on the website Klimatilpasning.no, other pollution and environmental pressures, and
which is part of the Norwegian Government por- must adjust regulation in other sectors to avoid
tal. The website provides targeted information negative effects.
48 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
The national centre for climate services must coastline are still rising. The Norwegian Mapping
be developed in close cooperation with relevant Authority has therefore attached special impor-
authorities. It should also be considered whether tance to strengthening its geodetic expertise, and
more agencies and research institutes should be will continue this process so that it can provide
linked to the centre, in addition to those that are the necessary support for Norwegian and interna-
already cooperating on its development at present. tional climate research.
The Government:
• Will appoint a committee to evaluate the cur-
rent legislation and as appropriate make pro-
posals for amendments to provide a better
framework for the municipalities, which will
have to deal with increasing volumes of storm-
water as a result of climate change.
tection and Emergency Planning, the risk of natu- (meaning that crises should be dealt with at the
ral hazard events such as flooding associated with lowest possible administrative level); and the prin-
extreme weather events is assessed as high in ciple that the organisational structures set up to
Norway.1 Climate change is expected to reinforce deal with crises should be as similar as possible to
this picture. The Directorate emphasises that the those used in normal circumstances. In the 2012
consequences of different types of climate-related white paper on civil protection, the Government
events will depend on how well Norway is pre- introduced a fourth principle, that crisis manage-
pared. The review highlights steps to make infra- ment must also be based on cooperation. This was
structure more resilient and strengthen early intended to clarify the Government’s overall
warning systems as important ways of reducing responsibility for civil protection and emergency
loss and damage. There are close links between planning across sectors. In accordance with these
the preventive aspect of civil protection and cli- principles, civil protection and emergency plan-
mate change adaptation. ning is an integral part of the work of all sectors in
Norway. The authorities in each sector are there-
fore required to develop their own civil protection
Division of responsibilities and emergency plans and instruments for their
A variety of tools and instruments can be used in area of responsibility, and that the municipalities
civil protection and emergency planning work. In have overall responsibility for civil protection and
Norway, this work is based on the principle that emergency planning at local level.
those responsible for a particular field under nor- The Ministry of Justice and Public Security
mal circumstances are also responsible for deal- has the overall responsibility for ensuring policy
ing with crises; the principle of subsidiarity coherence in the field of civil protection. In addi-
tion to initiating and carrying out measures, the
1 Ministry takes initiatives vis-à-vis other govern-
Nasjonalt risikobilde 2012, Directorate for Civil Protection
and Emergency Planning (National Risk Review for Nor- ment agencies and is responsible for coordinating
way 2012, in Norwegian only) policy and for performance monitoring in all sec-
52 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
CONSEQUENCE
Influenza pandemic
Energy shortage
Ship collision
Gas/Oil blow-out
Fjellskred
Cyber attack
Industrial fire
Volcanic eruption
Terrorist attack
Gas leak
Solar storm
Forest fire
PROBABILITY
Figure 6.3 Risk matrix showing the probability and consequences of particularly serious events, from
the 2012 edition of the national risk review for Norway
Source: Nasjonalt risikobilde 2012, Directorate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning (National Risk Review for Norway, in
Norwegian only)
operational support during emergencies. Its the system. Emergency plans must include an
responsibilities include many types of climate- overview of the measures the municipality has
related events, and it is an important part of the implemented for crisis management.
emergency services in this area. For example, the Thus the importance of incorporating climate
Civil Defence is used to reinforce municipal change considerations into municipal civil protec-
resources for fighting forest fires. tion and emergency planning work, in line with
After major natural hazard events, extensive other considerations of civil protection, is strongly
clean-up may be needed. In special cases, exper- emphasised in Norway.
tise and construction resources can be obtained The county governors are the supervisory
through the Council for Emergency Preparedness authorities and ensure that the municipalities
in the Construction Sector, which is appointed by comply with their emergency preparedness
the Ministry of Trade and Industry. duties. They are also responsible for coordinating
civil protection and emergency planning and
maintaining an overview of risks and vulnerability
Civil protection in municipal planning processes at county level, and function as contact points and
Norway’s Civil Protection Act sets out the duties receive reports in the event of incidents and emer-
of the municipalities in the field of emergency pre- gencies.
paredness, and is designed to ensure that civil
protection and emergency planning are incorpo-
rated into general planning processes and in con- 6.2 Stormwater management
nection with specific planning proposals. Under
the Act, municipalities are required to carry out Stormwater means runoff on impermeable sur-
an overall risk and vulnerability analysis. This faces such as roofs and roads that originates from
must identify the types of incidents or emergen- precipitation, a storm surge or meltwater. Climate
cies that may arise, including impacts of climate projections indicate a trend towards more, and
change. The analysis must be followed up by the more intense, precipitation in Norway, which will
preparation of an overall emergency plan for the result in more stormwater runoff in urban areas
municipality, and exercises must be held to test and may lead to urban flooding. This may cause
serious damage to buildings and other infrastruc-
ture and entail a threat to life and health. The
report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010:
Box 6.1 Goals for civil protection 10) stresses that climate change, with higher total
Norwegian society has to deal with a varied
and complex set of risks and threats. The Gov-
ernment’s goal for civil protection is to provide
the population with a strong sense of safety
and security by:
– effectively reducing the risk of and if possi-
ble preventing incidents that may threaten
life, health, key assets, functions of the
public authorities or other critical societal
functions;
– ensuring effective emergency planning and
the necessary response capacity to deal
with serious crime, emergencies and acci-
dents;
– ensuring the capacity to restore critical
societal functions quickly if it is not possi-
ble to prevent an incident or emergency;
– ensuring that lessons are learned from inci-
dents and exercises.
– Retention ponds and rain gardens can be esta- Water Directive, which has been incorporated into
blished for temporary water storage. the EEA Agreement. There are different require-
– Parts of culverted streams and rivers can be re- ments for discharges of municipal waste water
opened. from larger urban areas, where the county gover-
nor is the pollution control authority, and for
smaller urban areas, where the municipality is the
Key legislation competent authority. These provisions are also
Stormwater management is a municipal responsi- relevant to stormwater management, since
bility. However, several different authorities requirements for the design capacity of sewer sys-
administer the legislation and determine the tems, storm drains and waste water treatment
framework for municipal stormwater manage- plants depend on the quantity of stormwater
ment in urban areas. The most important legisla- entering the system. The Climate and Pollution
tion is described below. Agency administers the Pollution Control Act and
The Planning and Building Act is the most Pollution Regulations on behalf of the Ministry of
important tool for the municipalities in their the Environment. The Agency also administers
efforts to ensure that land use plans and individ- the Act relating to municipal water supply and
ual building projects take into account the need to sewerage systems, which together with the rele-
manage increasing volumes of stormwater. The vant provisions of the Pollution Regulations pro-
Act is divided into two parts: the Ministry of the vides the legal authority for the municipalities to
Environment is the administrative authority for finance water supply and sewerage systems
the planning part, while the Ministry of Local Gov- through fees paid by customers. The water and
ernment and Regional Development is responsi- waste water fees may not exceed the necessary
ble for the part on building matters. The Regula- costs incurred by the municipalities in these sec-
tions on technical requirements for building tors. If stormwater is transported through the
works under the Act set out various requirements sewer system, the municipality may also include
that developers must meet: for example concern- these costs in the fees.
ing local infiltration of stormwater and mainte-
nance of drainage systems, protection against nat-
ural hazards, upgrading and maintenance of water Municipal planning processes
supply and sewerage systems and requirements The Planning and Building Act provides the
for resolving water seepage problems between municipalities with the authority to set a frame-
neighbours. As a general rule, these provisions work for sound stormwater management in plan-
apply to new building projects and substantial ning processes and for new developments in
modification of existing buildings. The Norwegian urban areas. Municipalities should draw up over-
Building Authority administers the regulations on all strategies for stormwater management in such
behalf of the Ministry of Local Government and areas. Projected climate change and the accompa-
Regional Development. nying increase in precipitation will make this even
The Water Resources Act includes provisions more important. A stormwater management strat-
on the flow of water in river systems and infiltra- egy should give an account of expected precipita-
tion into the ground. Section 7 of the Act states tion and runoff, evaluate the acceptable level of
that when land is built up or otherwise developed, flood risk, and identify priority steps towards sus-
this should as a general rule be done in such a tainable stormwater management. Key elements
way that precipitation can continue to drain away of the strategy should then be into the land-use
by infiltration into the ground. The water element of the municipal master plan. This will
resources authorities (the municipalities) may make it possible for municipalities to include
order measures to improve infiltration into the sound stormwater management as a factor in
ground provided that this can be done without preparations for zoning plans and in individual
unreasonable costs. The Norwegian Water decisions on building matters. In this context,
Resources and Energy Directorate administers Chapter 7 on climate-resilient municipalities and
the Water Resources Act on behalf of the Ministry the policy instruments discussed there are also
of Petroleum and Energy. relevant.
The Pollution Control Act sets out provisions The Government considers it important for
on pollution from waste water, and there are more the municipalities to make use of the authority
detailed rules in the Pollution Regulations under provided Planning and Building Act and the Regu-
the Act. These implement the EU Urban Waste lations on technical requirements for building
56 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
works to plan and lay down requirements for sus- clearer guidelines are needed for determining
tainable stormwater management. which conditions the municipalities may impose
on residents.
In future, increasing volumes of stormwater
Improving the framework for stormwater will also make it necessary to consider pollution
management from different types of stormwater, and what the
In connection with the consultation process on the implications may be for the provisions on waste
report Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010: water in the pollution control legislation. For
10), the municipalities pointed to a need for example, it may be necessary to amend require-
clearer rules and a better framework for munici- ments for treatment of stormwater, design specifi-
pal stormwater management, particularly in cations for sewers, define waste water to distin-
already built-up areas. guish it from unpolluted surface water, or alter
As mentioned above, the Planning and Build- guidelines or amend other parts of the legislation.
ing Act and the Regulations on technical require- In the Government’s view, the changing cli-
ments for building works primarily authorise the mate, accompanied by increasingly intense pre-
municipalities to include stormwater management cipitation events and more severe flooding and
as a consideration in land-use planning processes storm surges, makes it essential to provide the
and when processing applications for new devel- municipalities with a sound legislative framework
opments. However, it must be considered whether that will enable them to prevent stormwater dam-
these rules for new developments need to be age in urban areas.
strengthened so that the municipalities have As described above, the current framework
wider powers to set requirements for stormwater includes legislation in several areas, which needs
management. The municipalities’ authority to to be considered as a whole and has major impli-
order measures to improve infiltration into the cations for a range of interest groups. This field
ground under section 7 of the Water Resources involves complex issues, and evaluating them
Act is also mainly intended to be used in connec- requires specific expertise.
tion with land-use planning (zoning plans and The Government therefore considers it impor-
building development plans). tant to ensure that the different interest groups
Thus, the current legislation only gives the are involved in an evaluation of the current frame-
municipalities limited authority to require work and whether the legislation needs to be
changes in stormwater management in existing amended. To ensure that this is a thorough, inclu-
built-up areas – which could include replacing sive process, the Government will appoint a com-
impermeable surfaces such as asphalt with mittee to evaluate the legislation and key parts of
porous materials, channelling water to streams or the framework for effective municipal stormwater
to areas where natural infiltration can take place, management.
re-opening parts of culverted rivers and streams,
or establishing green roofs. Further consideration
should be given to widening the municipalities’ 6.3 Flooding, landslides and
powers to require improvements to stormwater avalanches
management in existing built-up areas.
At present, the rules on municipal water sup- Flooding, landslides and avalanches are natural
ply and waste water fees limit the possibilities for processes that are influenced by the climate and
financing stormwater management measures thus by climate change. The Government’s aim is
through these fees. Fees may only be imposed if to improve Norway’s ability to reduce the risks
stormwater is channelled through municipal sew- posed by these phenomena. Work is in progress
ers and pipelines. Changes to the rules should be to identify hazard zones, avoid developments in
considered, including how the criteria for impos- these zones, and protect buildings and settle-
ing fees should be formulated. ments at risk. This was described in more detail in
During the consultation process on the report a 2012 white paper on flooding, landslides and ava-
Adapting to a changing climate, a number of lanches (Meld. St. 15 (2011–2012) Hvordan leve
organisations also identified a need to clarify the med farene – om flom og skred, in Norwegian
duties and responsibilities of the municipalities in only).
their capacity as providers of waste water treat- The consequences of flooding, landslides and
ment services, and what residents are entitled to avalanches may become worse with climate
expect. This also raises the question of whether change, since these events are expected to occur
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 57
Climate change adaptation in Norway
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987 Total damages all types: NOK 551 million
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995 Total damages all types: NOK 1509 million
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011 Total damages all types: NOK: 701 million
2012*
Figure 6.6 Monetary value of damages related to flooding, landslides and avalanches registered in Nor-
way from 1980 to 2012.
Source: Norwegian Natural Disaster Fund/Norwegian Natural Perils Pool
more frequently, become more severe and occur sea, and the consequences of flooding will
in other areas than today. Climate projections indi- become more severe near river mouths.
cate that episodes of locally intense precipitation Mapping of current flood hazard shows that
will occur more frequently. This will cause particu- there are 22 000 residents and 7500 buildings in
lar problems in small, steep river valleys and in areas exposed to a 1 in 200-year risk of flooding,
urban areas, where there are large areas of imper- with the largest numbers of both people and build-
meable surfaces. Rising temperatures and a gen- ings in Hedmark and Buskerud counties. These
eral rise in precipitation will result in changes in figures are based on areas that have already been
patterns of flooding, see Chapter 2.2. Current cli- mapped. In addition, there will be residents and
mate projections indicate that in some areas the buildings in flood-prone areas where the flood risk
size of floods will rise by more than 20 %. Sea level has not yet been mapped.
will probably rise, resulting in higher storm Landslides and avalanches are often triggered
surges. This will directly affect areas close to the by meteorological conditions, and both ava-
58 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
lanches and soil slides may be caused by extreme regional plans required by the Planning and Build-
weather events. There are clear links between ing Act. They are also major infrastructure owners
precipitation, temperature and wind conditions – for example, they are responsible for county
and different types of avalanches. Higher temper- roads.
atures will reduce the risk of dry snow avalanches The Ministry of Petroleum and Energy has
at altitudes below 500–1000 metres, but will overall administrative responsibility for managing
increase the risk of wet snow avalanches and flood, landslide and avalanche risk in Norway.
slush flows. A higher frequency of intense precipi- Operational responsibility for risk reduction in
tation events will increase the risk of landslides this field has been assigned to the Norwegian
and flood-related debris flows. Quick clay slides Water Resources and Energy Directorate, whose
are often triggered by human activity, but may tasks include:
also be triggered by prolonged heavy rain and – mapping hazard areas and providing informa-
high water flow. Changes in precipitation patterns tion on them;
may increase the risk of debris flows and slush – ensuring that flood, landslide and avalanche
flows in areas that have not been at risk previ- hazards are taken into account in municipal
ously. The vulnerability of an area to landslides land-use plans;
and avalanches depends on the infrastructure, – providing the municipalities with technical and
buildings and types of buildings within it. The sit- financial support for planning and carrying out
ing of residential buildings and other infrastruc- risk reduction measures;
ture, the choice of building type, control and – monitoring the situation and providing flood,
enforcement routines, and maintenance are all landslide and avalanche warnings;
very important issues in areas where there is a – providing municipalities, the police and other
landslide or avalanche hazard. The risk of rockfall emergency services with technical support
and avalanche susceptibility and hazard has been during emergencies;
mapped for most municipalities in coastal and – generating and spreading knowledge about
mountain areas of Western Norway and North flooding, landslides and avalanches.
Norway, and maps of susceptibility to quick clay However, every central government body has an
slides have been produced for 70 municipalities. independent responsibility for risk reduction and
At present, 72 000 people (24 000 households) response to flooding, landslides and avalanches
live in areas that are susceptible to rockfalls and within its own sphere of responsibility, whether as
avalanches, and there are 64 000 people and the authority responsible for legislation and guide-
17 000 buildings in areas that are susceptible to lines in a sector, as a service provider, or as the
quick clay slides. manager of its property and infrastructure.
The county governors’ responsibilities include
coordinating civil protection work at county level
Division of responsibilities and promoting and providing advice on civil pro-
Many different actors are responsible for reduc- tection and emergency planning.
ing the risk of damage from flooding, landslides
and avalanches. Individual people are responsible
for their own safety, and should take precautions Mapping flood, landslide and avalanche hazard areas
on their own property, when out and about in the The Norwegian Water Resources and Energy
countryside and during other activities in areas Directorate is to draw up a plan for flood hazard
where there is a flood, landslide or avalanche haz- mapping to clarify the priorities for initial mapping
ard. of new areas and for updating existing maps, and
Under the Planning and Building Act, the that will include all elements and levels of the
municipalities are responsible for ensuring that mapping programme. A rolling plan is required to
natural hazards, including flood, landslide and make it possible to incorporate new needs that
avalanche hazards, are assessed and taken prop- arise as a result of climate change, new technol-
erly into account in land-use planning and pro- ogy or other changes that have implications for
cessing of building applications. The municipali- the mapping process.
ties also have responsibilities as the owners of The Directorate will continue flood hazard
land, buildings and other infrastructure such as mapping in flood-prone areas. Existing maps are
roads and water supply and sewerage systems. to be updated on the basis of specific criteria, one
The counties are the regional planning author- of which is that rivers will be included if climate
ities, and are responsible for drawing up the projections indicate that there will be major
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 59
Climate change adaptation in Norway
changes in the areas exposed to a 1 in 200-year areas in their catchments and for stormwater
risk of flooding in their catchments. flooding. Flood hazard mapping of Norway’s
All municipalities should map tributaries and smaller rivers has not received much attention so
streams where the damage potential is high. Pro- far. In addition to causing problems in urban
jections of more frequent local flooding caused by areas, flooding in small river systems and streams
heavy rainfall and thus of a higher risk of damage can have serious consequences for the road and
along smaller rivers and streams indicate that railway systems. Their safety is partly dependent
higher priority should be given to mapping hazard on adequate design specifications for the very
60 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
large numbers of culverts and bridges where and species and habitats. Particular caution must
roads and railways cross streams and small rivers. be exercised along steep rivers and streams
The Water Resources and Energy Directorate where the water may find a new course or wash
will draw up guidelines for municipal mapping to out soil and debris. Maps of potential flood chan-
ensure that sound, uniform procedures are fol- nels can provide a good basis for municipal map-
lowed. The Directorate can also provide grants for ping of high-risk areas. It is particularly important
municipal mapping of river systems, within the to take into account the role of wetlands in flood
framework of the government programme for haz- control, see Chapter 8.1. Mires and other wet-
ard mapping. The municipalities should coordi- lands store water and release it slowly, which
nate flood hazard mapping with mapping storm- slows down the speed of floodwater. As a general
water-related hazards and planning safe flood rule, mires and other wetlands should not be
channels. State infrastructure owners need to drained or developed. Natural riparian vegetation
maintain an overview of the status of culverts and provides good protection against flood damage
bridges, and regularly assess the need for upgrad- and erosion of riverbanks, and should be safe-
ing. Where feasible, mapping by municipalities guarded in municipal land-use plans.
and central government agencies should be coor- In its climate change adaptation strategy, the
dinated, particularly collection and analysis of Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directo-
hydrological data. rate states that if climate projections show that
The frequency of landslides and avalanches flooding will increase by more than 20 % in the
triggered by intense rainfall/flooding and snow- next 100 years, the projected figures should be
falls may rise in parts of Norway as a result of cli- used as a basis for land-use planning. This is
mate change. As in the case of flood hazard map- already being implemented in practice.
ping, the impacts of climate change must be taken The frequency of landslides and avalanches
into account in landslide and avalanche hazard triggered by intense rainfall/flooding and snow-
mapping wherever relevant, in a way that is falls may also rise in parts of Norway. So far, little
adapted to the use of the data. is known about how this will influence the delimi-
Assessing and mapping flood, landslide and tation of hazard zones for landslides and ava-
avalanche hazard and risk requires a great deal of lanches using the probability limits that are the
information and high-quality underlying data. basis for land-use planning. Even using today’s cli-
For analyses relating to flooding, landslides mate as a basis, the level of uncertainty associated
and avalanches, it is particularly important to have with the delimitation of hazard zones for land-
detailed topographic data that can be used as a slides with an annual probability of less than 1/
basis for analyses of the terrain and geological 1000 is so great that there is no reason to add an
structures. extra margin of error to take account of climate
change.
In addition, it is clear that sea levels will rise.
The importance of municipal land-use planning However, there will be regional variations, and in
Under the Planning and Building Act, the munici- several areas the rise in sea level will be reduced
palities are chiefly responsible, through their plan- by glacial rebound. In 2011, the Directorate for
ning activities, for shaping the physical environ- Civil Protection and Emergency Planning pub-
ment, maintaining its quality, and finding a bal- lished guidelines on how to take sea level rise into
ance between development and conservation on account in municipal planning, in cooperation with
the basis of its characteristics and local factors. several other agencies.
The importance of municipal land-use planning in The Ministry of the Environment, in coopera-
natural hazards risk reduction and climate change tion with the Ministry of Local Government and
adaptation was highlighted in a 1997 white paper Regional Development and the Ministry of Petro-
on flood control and protection measures leum and Energy, intends to develop recommen-
(St.meld. nr. 42 (1996–97) Tiltak mot flom, in Nor- dations or guidelines on how to include the effects
wegian only), the 2012 white paper on civil protec- of climate change on flooding, landslides and ava-
tion, and the report Adapting to a changing climate lanches, and storm surges/sea level rise in munic-
(NOU 2010: 10). ipal planning. Municipal plans must be based on
The increasing flood hazard must be taken environmental criteria designed to ensure that the
into account in land-use planning. There can be natural environment and water quality are taken
major benefits in taking an integrated approach to into account when planning and implementing cli-
planning that also includes ecosystem services mate change adaptation measures.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 61
Climate change adaptation in Norway
ment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel siderable rise in the risk of damage and perhaps in
on Climate Change (IPCC), but corrected for the higher insurance premiums and insurance pay-
contribution to sea level rise from the large ice outs. If events that are considered to be extreme
sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, which the today become common, it may not be possible to
IPCC report did not include. The risk of an obtain insurance cover at all. A study by the insur-
increase in the rate of melting has been included ance company Gjensidige indicates that by the
in accordance with the precautionary principle, end of the present century, higher precipitation
even though there is a great deal of scientific could result in a 50 % increase in the number of
uncertainty as to how much this will contribute to cases of water damage in certain counties.2
sea level rise in the period up to 2100. The Dutch The insurance companies play an important
and British authorities, and more recently the role in reducing the economic risk borne by com-
Danish authorities, have made similar recommen- panies and private households. Under Norwegian
dations. legislation, insurance companies must determine
It is very uncertain how much and how insurance premiums on the basis of risk levels.
quickly sea level will rise. Knowledge about how This means that they can for example offer lower
climate change is influencing sea level is con- premiums to customers who take steps to prevent
stantly being developed, so that current informa- climate-related damage. In this way, they can play
tion rapidly becomes outdated. Advice should an important part in reducing overall damage
therefore be updated regularly. caused by climate change.
7 Climate-resilient municipalities
huge costs. Stormwater runoff in urban areas also lar survey in 2007, and eight out of ten municipali-
causes substantial damage every year to buildings ties answered that they expect climate change to
and other infrastructure. Climate change could have impacts in their communities. Many of those
intensify existing problems and result in a higher that have already taken steps to adapt to climate
frequency of natural hazard events that inflict change have done so after being struck by a natu-
major damage, even in places where such events ral hazard event. A combination of information,
used to be rare. guidance and cooperation with other municipali-
Areas that could previously be developed ties has been shown to produce good results. The
safely may become unsuitable because they are adaptation efforts made in response to natural
exposed to a higher risk of flooding, landslides hazard events and as a result of participation in
and avalanches, or rising sea levels. In built-up projects are a positive development. However, in
areas the higher risk of climate-related damage the long term climate change may have major
could make it necessary to impose requirements impacts beyond those affecting municipalities
for preventive measures or altered use. Thus cli- today. In the long run, regular evaluation of adap-
mate change could involve major costs in exposed tation measures based on actual events will not be
locations and limit the availability of suitable areas enough to ensure secure and sustainable local
for development. communities.
For the municipalities, which are responsible Furthermore, adaptation efforts compete for
for civil protection at the local level, climate attention with many equally important local gov-
change will influence the risk profile used as a ernment tasks, and it can be difficult for a munici-
basis for community development. It can be a pality to give sufficient priority to adaptation over
challenging task to identify how climate change is other necessary activities.
likely to alter the risk profile and thus to adjust the The 2011 survey of municipal adaptation
preventive aspects of municipal planning appropri- efforts also showed that there are large differ-
ately. ences between municipalities, and that many
However, climate change may also provide small municipalities are finding it difficult to
opportunities for positive development in local address the challenges of climate change. It is an
communities. For example, higher precipitation important goal of the national adaptation work to
will make it more important to maintain and fur- ensure that climate change does not increase dis-
ther develop the green structure that is such a val- parities between municipalities.
uable resource in urban areas. In towns especially,
where much of the available area has already been
allocated, there are a number of examples of inno- 7.2 The municipalities’ responsibility
vative stormwater management measures to pre- for climate change adaptation
vent damage, such as improving green spaces and
reopening natural waterways. Such measures will The municipalities have the overall responsibility
also benefit health, recreational activities and the for community development within their geo-
environment. graphical catchment areas. They have obligations
Water, sea and land temperatures are rising as and exercise authority under various acts of legis-
a result of climate change. Higher temperatures lation, and their responsibility for planning is reg-
are leading to environmental changes that will ulated by the Planning and Building Act.
gradually alter the framework for business devel- The future consequences of climate change
opment, especially in tourism and the primary for the municipalities will be partly determined by
industries. While this could open up new opportu- decisions taken today, for example on land use
nities for local development, it could also pose and the development of municipal infrastructure.
problems for existing business activities. Changes The Government will therefore require municipal-
in the natural environment will create new condi- ities to use relevant knowledge about current and
tions for sports and outdoor recreation. For exam- future climate change as a basis for their planning
ple, in areas that are now on the outskirts of activities and exercise of authority. This will be
regions with stable winter weather conditions, necessary for example in their application of legis-
higher temperatures will gradually limit opportu- lation relating to civil protection and nature man-
nities for winter activities. agement, where they have vital tasks. The local
In 2011 a survey was made of climate change authorities must also take climate change into
adaptation work in Norwegian counties and account when applying the rules on the construc-
municipalities was made, as a follow-up to a simi- tion of housing, roads and other infrastructure.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 67
Climate change adaptation in Norway
Climate change will also affect a number of other The counties draw up regional planning strate-
municipal services, such as provision of drinking gies that are used in deciding which regional plan-
water and waste water and waste management. ning issues should be addressed by a newly
Climate change considerations are particularly elected county or municipal council. The Govern-
important in long-term planning for the develop- ment considers that climate change adaptation
ment of municipal services and associated infra- must be a key premise for this work.
structure. The municipal master plan is more concrete,
The Government wishes counties and munici- and the municipalities need to decide how the
palities to take account of climate change and of impacts of climate change in their particular
the vulnerability of society and the environment in municipality should be addressed in the social,
their planning activities under the Planning and land-use and implementation elements of the mas-
Building Act and in other areas where they exer- ter plan. The social element addresses long-term
cise authority. All municipalities should consider challenges, goals and strategies for development
how they will be affected by climate change and of the community as a whole, including strategies
draw up measures to make themselves more resil- for social development, sectoral activities and
ient and thereby avoid future costs and a higher long-term land-use needs. It should be focused
risk of loss of life. and action-oriented, and identify priority areas
All municipal planning is based on the munici- that need to be addressed. The assignment of pri-
pal planning strategy. When drafting its planning orities will largely depend on a vulnerability
strategy, which is done at least once during each assessment for the various areas. The assessment
electoral term, it is very important that the munic- should cover environmental status, water quality,
ipality gives prominence to the impacts of climate nature management, buildings, transport, health
change. This also applies to any planning pro- and pollution. The vulnerability assessment and
gramme drawn up when the municipal master priorities in the social element of the master plan
plan is revised. are important, since the social element serves as
68 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
the basis for the municipal sector plans and activi- planning processes and decision-making in differ-
ties. ent sectors.
The social element of the master plan is con- The central government planning guidelines
cerned with community development; it describes will be designed to assist coordination across sec-
the needs of the community and provides land-use tors and administrative levels. They will make it
guidelines. A land-use plan for the entire munici- easier for counties and municipalities to include
pality is also required, linking land use with future climate change adaptation in their planning under
social development. In many municipalities, the the Planning and Building Act and take it into
land-use guidelines will be strongly influenced by account in the exercise of their authority and the
the need for adaptation in various areas. Thus by fulfilment of their obligations.
including adaptation measures in their land-use To enable the counties and municipalities to
planning, municipalities will be able to reduce the ensure that Norwegian communities are resilient
scale of the damage done by climate change. in the future, adaptation to climate change must
The implementation element of the master be made an integral part of their responsibilities.
plan contains an action programme based on the Climate change adaptation, which is a long-term,
adaptation needs identified in the social and land- cross-cutting issue, needs to be integrated into the
use elements, and is coordinated with the finance municipalities’ existing tasks. The purpose of the
plan that is required by the master plan. The guidelines is to encourage municipalities to use
implementation element and the finance plan are their long-term planning activities, particularly
the most important tools available to the munici- their land-use planning, to reduce vulnerability to
palities for ensuring efficient implementation and climate change. They will also provide informa-
sound economic management. tion and guidance on where and how the local
authorities can obtain adequate knowledge about
the impacts of climate change and which knowl-
7.3 Central government planning edge is most applicable to their particular region.
guidelines for climate change The new guidelines will also set out national
adaptation goals and expectations, together with clear guide-
lines, concerning municipal planning of climate
The Government intends to draw up central gov- change adaptation. They will apply both to overall
ernment planning guidelines describing how cli- regional and municipal planning strategies and to
mate change adaptation should be addressed in more specific municipal planning, in other words
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 69
Climate change adaptation in Norway
to the social, land-use and implementation ele- site www.klimatilpasning.no to coordinate this
ments of the municipal master plan. type of information and make it easily accessible
A key part of the central government guide- for regional and municipal authorities. The web-
lines will be to specify the considerations and site, which is managed by the Norwegian Climate
assessments that must be taken into account in Adaptation Programme, is also intended as a tool
order to ensure that the impacts of climate change for municipalities and others who find it difficult
are given sufficient priority in planning and other to start on adaptation work, and contains a set of
municipal activities and in the exercise of their practical guidelines. These include background
authority. information, tools and advice on how to include
The local government authorities must also climate change considerations in planning pro-
take into account the fact that the impacts will dif- cesses. The website has so far been a success, but
fer from one part of the country to another. if it is to continue to be relevant and serve as a key
In addition, the central government guidelines knowledge base and communication channel, it
will provide a more detailed overview of the meas- will require regular maintenance, development
ures that should be evaluated and implemented in and updating. Priority will be given to maintaining
the long-term social element of the municipal mas- the role of klimatilpasning.no as a knowledge plat-
ter plan, in the land-use element and in zoning form for adaptation efforts in Norway.
plans. Specific, action-oriented guidelines will be In order to be of practical use in planning,
given for various sectors: for drawing up risk and knowledge about climate change adaptation must
vulnerability assessments, incorporating environ- be further developed through collaboration
mental considerations and identifying how the between municipalities and resource centres that
natural environment can be used to prevent dam- can interpret climate modelling and projections to
age, and for building technology, road construc- provide locally adapted information.
tion and so on. Studies can form a sound basis for adaptation
The central government guidelines will pro- efforts, but the practical measures must be devel-
vide general, overall directions, and will also be oped by the municipalities themselves. Networks
more specific and detailed in certain areas. They and regional cooperation have been shown to be
will be incorporated into the existing central gov- effective learning tools for strengthening the
ernment guidelines for climate change mitigation adaptive capacity of municipalities and enabling
and energy planning by counties and municipali- them to exchange experience. This is important in
ties. They are also intended to serve as a basis for an area like climate change adaptation, which is
individual decisions made by central government, new to many people and where experience is lim-
regional and municipal bodies under the Planning ited. Networked learning is also very effective.
and Building Act and other legislation. Cooperation with central government agencies,
suppliers of climate projections and other knowl-
edge centres can save municipalities time and
7.4 Information, cooperation and money. For example, the cooperation within river
advice basin districts under the Water Management Reg-
ulations is an important arena for intermunicipal
Regardless of how the municipalities organise collaboration and knowledge-building and also rel-
their adaptation efforts, knowledge of the local evant to adaptation measures to maintain or
impacts of climate change will be essential. For improve the environmental status of inland and
example, without information about sea level rise, coastal waters.
precipitation trends and the resulting changes in Several types of networks for cooperation and
the risks associated with flooding, landslides and sharing experience have been set up. While Cities
avalanches, local authorities will not know which of the Future involves the largest towns and their
changes they need to adapt to. Priority will be adjacent municipalities, regardless of geographi-
given to improving dissemination of information cal location, the networked learning for which the
on climate change to the counties and municipali- counties and county governors are responsible is
ties. linked to specific geographical regions. Both mod-
Today there is a great deal of information avail- els have their strengths. Cities of the Future pro-
able from studies and the central government vides a forum for exchange of experience between
administration on climate change and the practi- urban areas on specifically urban problems, such
cal results of various adaptation efforts. In 2009 as stormwater. The county networks link the
the Ministry of the Environment set up the web- municipalities within each regional administrative
70 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
structure, which enables county authorities, for economic, environmental, social and cultural
county governors and key state agencies with a development within each county and to provide
regional presence, such as the Norwegian Public guidance and assistance on planning to the munic-
Roads Administration and the Norwegian Water ipalities. In their planning guidance for the munic-
Resources and Energy Directorate, to provide ipalities, the county authorities include input on
clear and coordinated guidance to the municipali- regional interests in the planning area and guid-
ties. This form of cooperation also promotes inter- ance on processes and requirements regarding
municipal collaboration on joint vulnerability planning documents. This means that the county
assessments and regional challenges. The Gov- authorities have an important advisory role as
ernment considers that intermunicipal coopera- regards municipal climate-related work in land-
tion will be an effective means of implementing use planning.
central government guidelines on adaptation. The county governors’ offices are responsible
Regional networks and the provision of guid- for ensuring that national policies are imple-
ance and advice to the municipalities should be mented locally and coordinate central govern-
considered together. The county authorities and ment policy signals to the municipalities. Under
county governors have a number of tasks and the Planning and Building Act, they also provide
functions at the regional level that are relevant to advice and guidance on following up government
municipal adaptation efforts. guidelines and act as appeal and supervisory bod-
The counties are the regional planning author- ies. They coordinate civil protection and emer-
ities, with overall responsibility for regional plan- gency planning at the regional and municipal lev-
ning strategies, regional master plans and els, and are responsible for county-level risk and
regional planning provisions. Their planning activ- vulnerability assessments. They have also been
ities are intended to implement political objectives made responsible for maintaining an overview
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 71
Climate change adaptation in Norway
and providing guidance to the municipalities on guidelines on climate change adaptation, and for
climate change adaptation within their spheres of providing guidance to the municipalities. The
responsibility. Under the Planning and Building county governors’ offices cooperate with the
Act, the county governors will be responsible for county authorities in these tasks.
ensuring compliance with the central government
72 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
There is nothing new about the idea of taking far the different sectors have progressed in their
weather and climatic conditions into account in work on climate change adaptation. Some actors
planning processes. However, climate change will are already carrying out practical work, whereas
make it more challenging to deal with the climate- others have barely started. The main focus is on
related problems Norway already faces, and there reviews and surveys, and most of the work has
will be new challenges to deal with in addition. been organised in the form of projects.
Plans will have to be adjusted to take account of
more frequent and more intense extreme weather
events and gradual changes in the natural environ- 8.1 Nature management
ment. Planning for a different climate means that
current planning processes have to address both Climate change has impacts on both species com-
today’s climate and the projected future climate. position and biomass production in ecosystems,
It is particularly important to take climate and will have positive effects on some species and
change adaptation into account in all investments adverse effects on others. This section discusses
with a long time horizon, regardless of sector. how nature management in Norway can be
However, some sectors will be more strongly adapted to climate change.
affected by climate change than others. Several of The report Adapting to a changing climate
these, such as the electricity supply and transport (NOU 2010: 10) points out that nature’s capacity
sectors, have already started to address climate to adapt to rapid climate change is limited, but
change adaptation through surveys, analyses and that there are ways of strengthening the adaptive
policy development in their own fields. It is impor- capacity of ecosystems and species. High species
tant to ensure that this work is systematically diversity and wide genetic diversity combined
incorporated into planning and decision-making with many different habitats and niches make eco-
processes in the different sectors. systems resilient, in other words capable of with-
In recent years, sectoral authorities have standing and adapting to environmental change.
begun reviewing the situation and implementing High biodiversity and resilience is therefore
the first steps towards climate change adaptation. important for adaptation to climate change. One
The Directorate for Nature Management and the example is the importance of a wide variety of pol-
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directo- linators for some types of plant production.
rate have for example both carried out reviews Healthy ecosystems can also reduce the impacts
and presented action plans and strategies for cli- of climate change on human society. For example,
mate change adaptation. In 2010, the Norwegian forests can prevent landslides and erosion, and
Public Roads Administration completed a three- riparian vegetation can reduce inundation during
year review of the impacts of climate change on smaller flooding events. Thus, the natural environ-
transport infrastructure. The Norwegian Building ment can fulfil an important function in adaptation
Authority has also carried out major research pro- of human society to climate change.
jects and studies relating to the construction sec- Much of the nature management work being
tor in cooperation with SINTEF Building and done today consists of important measures to
Infrastructure. In 2009, the Government pre- ensure that biodiversity is resilient, which can
sented a white paper on climate change and the also be classified as climate change adaptation.
agriculture and forestry sectors, which discussed The overall goal of climate change adaptation in
both mitigation and adaptation (Report No. 39 the field of nature management is to maintain the
(2008–2009) to the Storting, Klimautfordringene – adaptive capacity of natural systems. This goal
landbruket en del av løsningen (Climate challenges must be achieved by finding a balance between
– agriculture part of the solution. Summary in conservation and sustainable use, and must be
English). There is considerable variation in how incorporated into the management of species and
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 73
Climate change adaptation in Norway
habitat types that may be exposed to climate results for society as a whole (section 12). There
change, for example by designating priority spe- are similar provisions on the management of
cies and selected habitats under the Nature Diver- marine species in section 7 of the Marine
sity Act. It is also important to maintain the range Resources Act. At the same time, section 14 of the
of ecosystem services provided by habitats such Nature Diversity Act requires measures under the
as wetlands, forest and river systems. As part of Act to be weighed against other important public
the work of following up decisions under the Con- interests.
vention on Biological Diversity, Norway is seek- The capacity of the natural environment to
ing to reduce the negative impacts of climate withstand extreme weather and to moderate the
change on biodiversity through conservation and negative impacts of climate change are important
sustainable use strategies that maintain biodiver- ecosystem services. Research shows that includ-
sity.1 This work involves finding good ways of inte- ing more aspects of the value of biodiversity in
grating climate change considerations into nature planning and management of the natural environ-
management. ment in order to enhance ecosystem services can
Activities in many different sectors and admin- bring major benefits. At national level, Norway
istrative areas have impacts on the natural envi- needs more knowledge and a better overview of
ronment. This makes it essential to take an inte- ecosystem services and their importance for eco-
grated approach to environmental management nomic development and human well-being, and
and to consider climate change in conjunction also the possible impacts of the loss and degrada-
with other environmental pressures. The report tion of ecosystems. Norway’s follow up of the Eco-
Adapting to a changing climate highlights the nomics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB)
importance of ecosystem-based management for study will be able to provide a valuable contribu-
strengthening the adaptive capacity of the natural tion here. The Government has appointed a com-
environment, and this is also emphasised in deci- mittee to review the values associated with biodi-
sions under the Convention on Biological Diver- versity and ecosystem services in Norway so that
sity. The same approach is being used in Norway we are in a better able to integrate this knowledge
as a basis in adaptation efforts in nature manage- into decision-making processes. The committee
ment, in the form of a good balance between con- has been asked to focus particularly on ecosystem
servation and sustainable use. services that will be important in dealing with cli-
The Nature Diversity Act sets out principles mate change.
for sustainable use, and is an important tool for The Conference of the Parties under the Con-
promoting ecosystem-based management. The vention on Biological Diversity in Nagoya, Japan,
authorities must use these principles as a basis in 2010 adopted the Aichi targets, 20 targets for
when evaluating and designing measures and new the conservation of biodiversity and maintenance
policy instruments. One of the fundamental of ecosystem services. According to these, the
requirements of the Act is that all decisions must, countries that are parties to the Convention are to
as far as is reasonable, be based on scientific update their national biodiversity action plans by
knowledge of the population status of species, the 2015, in line with the new targets. Norway is pre-
range and ecological status of habitat types, and paring a national action plan for biodiversity that
the impacts of environmental pressures (section will meet its obligations. Climate change consider-
8). Any pressure on an ecosystem must be ations and the capacity of ecosystems to help soci-
assessed on the basis of the cumulative environ- ety adapt to change will be integrated into the
mental effects on the ecosystem now or in the action plan.
future (section 10). In the absence of adequate
information on biological, geological or landscape
diversity or cumulative environmental effects on Conservation and climate change adaptation
the ecosystem, the aim must be to avoid possible Substantial work has been done over many years
significant damage, in accordance with the pre- to implement Norway’s nationwide national park
cautionary principle (section 9). The costs of plan and various thematic conservation plans.
avoiding environmental degradation must be This work is now nearing completion, and large
borne by the project owner (the user-pays princi- areas, particularly in the mountains, have been
ple, section 11), and methods, techniques and sit- safeguarded. However, some lowland habitat
ing of activities must be chosen to give the best types still have little statutory protection, and
many protected areas are small. Climate change
1
Convention on Biological Diversity, COP10, Decision X/33 may increase the vulnerability of such areas to cli-
74 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
mate-related factors such as strong winds and provisions will be further elaborated in two sets of
intense precipitation. Steps are already being regulations. The regulations relating to the plant-
taken to integrate climate change considerations ing or sowing of foreign tree species for forestry
into the management of protected areas, for exam- purposes enter into force on 1 July 2012, and
ple by increasing the size of protected areas and require anyone who wishes to plant or sow foreign
adjusting their boundaries. The connectivity of tree species to obtain a permit. Applications are
terrestrial habitats is important, since it enables processed by the county governors. Regulations
animals and plants to move to other, more suitable relating to the import and release of alien organ-
areas over time if ecological conditions change as isms are being drawn up. Risk factors are
the climate changes. This intensifies the need for expected to change as a result of climate change,
good land-use and general planning, so that net- and these regulations may help to protect Nor-
works of natural habitat can be maintained and way’s native biodiversity by preventing the intro-
allow species to move when necessary. Areas that duction and spread of invasive alien organisms. A
stretch from sea level to the mountains or through similar provision prohibiting the release of alien
several vegetation zones can be particularly organisms is set out in section 7 of the Marine
important in this connection.2, 3 Resources Act. Cooperation between sectors will
In the vicinity of urban areas, the Government play a key role in action against invasive alien
will make active use of land-use planning under organisms that become established and spread
the Planning and Building Act and the Nature more rapidly as a result of climate change. The
Diversity Act to safeguard areas of natural envi- Government’s Strategy on Invasive Alien Species
ronment that moderate the impacts of flooding contains a programme of measures to prevent the
and extreme weather events on housing and other spread and establishment of invasive alien spe-
infrastructure. Establishing protected areas can cies, which includes both measures to be taken by
also be an appropriate tool to use in this work. the individual sectors and joint measures on
which they are to cooperate. The strategy was
drawn up in cooperation between ten different
Invasive alien organisms and climate change ministries.
adaptation To ensure good control of the spread of inva-
Alien organisms are species, subspecies or popu- sive alien organisms, it will be important to ensure
lations that have been introduced outside their that the new legislation is properly enforced and
natural past or present distribution by human applied, and to develop early warning and rapid
agency (populations established in Norway before response systems for new invasive alien organ-
1800 are considered to be indigenous). Some of isms. Many counties have already established or
them are invasive, meaning that they displace are implementing action plans for dealing with
native species and disturb local ecosystems. Cli- alien organisms. This work must be continued,
mate change is expected to make it easier for alien since it is part of Norway’s efforts to meet its
organisms to become established in Norway and international commitments to introduce measures
some of them may pose a threat to native biodiver- to eradicate, contain and control invasive alien
sity. The Norwegian Biodiversity Information organisms. Policy instruments for eradication,
Centre’s report Alien species in Norway – with the containment and control, information work and
Norwegian Black List 2012 includes ecological mapping of alien organisms must also be coordi-
risk assessments of species that do not occur nat- nated between sectors.
urally in Norway. These provide an important
basis for eradicating, containing and controlling
invasive alien organisms in Norway. Climate change adaptation and outdoor recreation
Chapter IV of the Nature Diversity Act deals Making sure that everyone has the opportunity to
with the import and release of alien organisms. Its take part in outdoor recreation on an everyday
basis is an important objective of the Govern-
2
ment’s efforts to promote active outdoor recrea-
Framstad et. al. Naturfaglig evaluering av norske verneom-
råder. Verneområdenes funksjon som økologisk nettverk tion in Norway. The Government is drawing up a
og toleranse for klimaendringer (Assessment of Norwe- national action plan for state involvement in the
gian conservation areas. Their functions as ecological provision of outdoor recreation areas and on
networks and tolerance to climate change. Summary in
English) NINA report 888, 2012 arrangements for public access, which is to be
3
IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007 – completed in summer 2013. Its overall objective is
Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability, Chapter 4.6 to identify which areas should be set aside for out-
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 75
Climate change adaptation in Norway
door recreation and what arrangements are including montane forest, and will incorporate cli-
needed for access, for example low-impact facili- mate change considerations into planning pro-
ties that make access easy for as many people as cesses. The Government will consider whether
possible. The action plan will focus particularly on current policy instruments are sufficient to
the need to set aside areas and make arrange- ensure integrated land-use planning incorporating
ments for public access near urban areas. It will climate change considerations in mountain areas.
also discuss the need for adaptation to the chang- The need for new national guidelines for planning
ing climate. More public information may have to and designing holiday housing in the mountains
be provided, such as more information about the will be considered. One of the objectives of the
rules on open fires as the risk of forest fire regional plans for Norway’s national conservation
increases, and more information on sheep ticks as areas for wild reindeer is to safeguard continuous
their distribution area expands. areas of wild reindeer habitat. These plans are to
be completed by the end of 2012, and their imple-
mentation through decisions at county and munic-
Climate change adaptation in different ecosystems ipal level will play a key role in ensuring continu-
Many of the current policy instruments for man- ous areas of wild reindeer habitat in the future.
agement of mountain areas were not primarily Climate change may also alter food availability
established with climate change adaptation in for many species, including mountain and forest
mind, but may nevertheless be important in safe- game species. Populations must be regulated in a
guarding species and habitats in a changing cli- way that takes other pressures and climate
mate. About 75 % of the total area of Norway’s change into account. As one element of a sustaina-
national parks is in the mountains, and the corre- ble wildlife management regime, it may be appro-
sponding figures for protected landscapes and priate to consider adjustments of quotas and open
nature reserves are 71 % and 22 % respectively. seasons for game species to ensure that the vul-
When the national park plan has been completed, nerability of different species to climate change is
about 27 % of Norway’s mountain areas will be taken into account.
protected under the Nature Diversity Act. Forest covers about 130 000 square kilometres
Montane forest is the term used to describe or about 34 % of mainland Norway. About 50 % of
forest growing so high up that the trees clearly the most seriously threatened species in Norway
show the effects of the harsh climate. In general, (1838 species) are associated with forest. Condi-
Norway’s montane forests are less influenced by tions for many of these have improved with
forestry operations and have a higher proportion increasing environmental awareness in the for-
of old-growth forest than those in lowland areas. estry industry. Forests are also very important as
Many threatened species are associated with old- an economic resource and for outdoor recreation
growth forest, and montane forests are therefore and enjoyment of the outdoors – the local outdoor
important for their survival. Climate change may areas most used by many Norwegians are in for-
allow forest to become established in areas that est. Forests provide other important ecosystem
are currently above the treeline. This could have services too – they store carbon, are a source of
positive effects on forest species, but will reduce renewable energy and building materials, and
available areas of habitat for alpine species, creat- help to control landslides and avalanches, flood-
ing future conservation challenges. On the other ing, runoff and erosion. For example, a buffer
hand, montane forests in many areas are under zone of riparian forest plays an important part in
severe pressure because of holiday cabin develop- stabilising river banks.
ments, and species that live in these habitats may The way forests are managed strongly influ-
therefore be particularly vulnerable to further ences their productivity, the species composition
pressure such as climate change. and age distribution of trees, forest health, species
Climate change is one of the greatest threats diversity and the capacity of forests to deliver eco-
to wild reindeer and other species that are system services. Climate change intensifies the
adapted to alpine habitats. To help these species need for adaptation in the forestry industry,
to survive, it is therefore important to reduce including the development of seeds and plant
other negative factors such as habitat loss and material that are better adapted to the climate. Cli-
fragmentation. To safeguard vulnerable habitats mate change will also make it more important to
and threatened species in the mountains, the Gov- continue current practices such as ensuring that
ernment will focus on strengthening an integrated forestry roads follow appropriate routes and tak-
land-use planning regime for mountain areas,
76 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
ing other steps to prevent erosion, particularly in habitat types and eight priority species have been
steep terrain and flood-prone areas. designated, several of which are associated with
Forestry conservation areas that cover several the cultural landscape. Various arrangements,
vegetation zones can enable some species to including the scheme for specific environmental
spread more readily, and thus facilitate climate measures in agriculture and the regional environ-
change adaptation in forest habitats. In privately- mental programmes, include grant schemes for
owned areas, forest conservation is largely volun- management and restoration of habitats such as
tary, involving cooperation between landowners wetlands, hay meadows and coastal heaths, and
and the environmental authorities. In addition, for ditching and drainage of cultivated land. There
publicly owned areas of forests are protected. It is are regional water management plans that provide
essential to ensure that areas of the highest con- a basis for targeted measures to reduce runoff
servation value are protected. and nutrient loss from agriculture along rivers and
Responsibility for forest management in Nor- lakes. These help to improve the ecological status
way is shared: the Ministry of the Environment is of rivers and lakes, in accordance with the EU
responsible for biodiversity and outdoor recrea- Water Framework Directive.
tion interests, and can make use of the Nature The Government considers the instruments
Diversity Act, the Planning and Building Act, the used by the agricultural sector for conservation of
Oslo Forest and Countryside Act and funding for the agricultural landscape and associated species
protection of forest areas on a voluntary basis. and ecosystems to be important in addressing cli-
The Norwegian Agricultural Authority adminis- mate change. They improve management of the
ters the Forestry Act, the Natural Hazards Act and agricultural landscape and make vulnerable habi-
various regulations and grant schemes for the tat types more resilient to climate change. Climate
Ministry of Agriculture and Food. Forums for change may also make it necessary to make
cooperation between the agricultural and environ- adjustments to ensuretargeted and efficient use of
mental authorities have been established. This agricultural policy instruments. It is also essential
cooperation is also intended to facilitate climate to ensure close coordination of the use of policy
change adaptation in the forest sector. instruments by the agricultural and environmen-
Climate change may result in changes in spe- tal authorities.
cies and habitat diversity in the cultural landscape. About 10 % of mainland Norway is covered by
For example, with higher temperatures and a wetlands, mostly peatland – bogs or mires. Many
longer growing season, scrub and woodland will of these areas can play a part in flood control,
encroach more quickly on open landscapes unless groundwater recharge and moderating water
steps are taken to counteract this. Various flow4. However, the capacity of wetlands to retain
arrangements and grant schemes have been water varies greatly, and depends on hydrological
established for the maintenance of cultural land- processes. Floodplains and riparian ecosystems
scapes. Many of these form part of the national are generally recognised as one of the most
and regional environmental programmes under important defences against flood damage and ero-
the Agricultural Agreement, which have total sion of riverbanks. This means that safeguarding
almost NOK 5 billion per year. The national envi- and restoring such wetlands can be a win-win
ronmental programme includes general support solution, which reduces vulnerability to climate
for maintaining agricultural areas and cultural change, enhances carbon storage and maintains
landscapes, while the regional environmental pro- habitats for many different species.
grammes contain more specific measures to safe- The fact that the ecosystem services wetlands
guard cultural landscapes, the cultural heritage provide are public goods that benefit society as a
and biodiversity, and also pollution- and climate- whole, whereas the value for those responsible for
related measures. The environmental authorities managing a specific area is not as obvious, creates
are cooperating with the agricultural sector to major challenges in wetland management. Many
ensure that economic and other types of instru- wetlands have been severely degraded by pro-
ments counteract negative effects such as over- cesses such as straightening and channelling
growing of open landscapes. stretches of river, culverting, road-building along-
The Nature Diversity Act provides the legal side rivers, and more recently also the spread of
authority to designate priority species and
selected habitat types, which makes it possible to 4
Rusch, G. M. (2012): Climate and ecosystem services. The
adopt regulations to safeguard species and habi- potential of Norwegian ecosystems for climate mitigation
tats that are at particular risk. So far, five selected and adaptation. – NINA Report 791.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 77
Climate change adaptation in Norway
alien species. Sound knowledge and information Watercourse Regulation Act, the Aquaculture Act,
about the importance of ecosystem services from the Planning and Building Act and the Nature
wetlands is therefore needed, so that drainage and Diversity Act. Economic instruments are also
development of peatlands and other wetlands can important, including grants from the agricultural
be avoided through integrated land-use planning. authorities that encourage the implementation of
Some wetlands have been protected, but there measures to reduce runoff, for example establish-
are several types that are not included or are ing buffer zones, grassed waterways and hydro-
under-represented in Norway’s system of pro- technical installations.
tected areas. Particularly in highly productive low- Under the Common Implementation Strategy
land areas, wetlands are under severe and grow- for the Water Framework Directive, a guidance
ing pressure from development projects for hous- document has been drawn up on river basin man-
ing, industry and infrastructure. Many wetlands agement in a changing climate. Climate change
have also been drained, have become overgrown adaptation is an important consideration in devel-
or have changed in other ways, reducing their oping both monitoring programmes and pro-
capacity to buffer flooding or drought resulting grammes of measures as part of these plans.
from climate change. To reduce the vulnerability of freshwater spe-
A survey has shown that about 350 of Nor- cies to climate change, the Government will seek
way’s wetlands need restoration to maintain their to ensure that populations are as resilient as possi-
conservation value. A national plan for the restora- ble by regulating harvesting and other removal,
tion of priority wetlands is being drawn up. The carrying out stock enhancement measures where
purpose is to improve conditions for threatened appropriate, maintaining areas with specific eco-
species, safeguard threatened habitat types and logical functions, removing barriers to migration
enhance ecosystem services. Efforts to restore created by physical disturbance or alteration, and
and maintain wetlands so that they can continue to taking steps to prevent new developments from
deliver ecosystem services will be continued. creating such barriers. Cross-sectoral cooperation
Freshwater habitats and species may be is also need to ensure stable flow and good water
affected by more frequent and larger changes in quality even if precipitation patterns change.
water flow, temperature changes and an increase The overall framework for management of
in runoff and accompanying pollution as a result Norwegian sea areas has been laid down in the
of climate change. The integrated, cross-sectoral integrated management plans for these areas,
system of water resource planning under the while the Water Management Regulations and the
Water Management Regulations makes an impor- Planning and Building Act are important for inte-
tant contribution towards ecosystem-based man- grated management of the coastal zone. An impor-
agement of freshwater. This system applies to all tant element of both systems is a monitoring pro-
of Norway’s groundwater, freshwater bodies and gramme for selected indicators to give an over-
coastal waters to one nautical mile outside the view of status and trends for ecosystems. The
baseline. The overall objective is for all water bod- Marine Resources Act provides the legal basis for
ies to achieve good ecological and chemical sta- management of Norway’s living marine
tus. resources. The countries around the Northeast
Norway has been divided into eleven national Atlantic have extensive monitoring programmes
river basin districts and five5 river basin districts for ecosystems and fish stocks. The International
that are shared with Finland and Sweden. These Council for the Exploration of the Sea (ICES) uses
divisions are based on the natural boundaries of the monitoring results in drawing up its advice on
river basins and are independent of county and fish stocks, which is a key part of the basis for
municipal boundaries. Management plans are resource management. Quota recommendations
being drawn up for each region in accordance from ICES are based on updated information on
with the requirements of the Water Management stocks, ecosystems and climatic and environmen-
Regulations. They include both monitoring pro- tal factors, and decisions on quotas for stocks that
grammes and programmes of measures to are harvested are based on this advice. This sys-
achieve the environmental objectives. Measures tem is essential for ensuring that harvesting levels
have to be implemented under legislation adminis- are in accordance with the goal of maintaining
tered by various authorities, particularly the Pollu- resilient marine ecosystems. Scientists consider
tion Control Act, the Water Resources Act, the that most Norwegian stocks are being harvested
within safe ecological limits.
5
Corrected from six in the original Norwegian text.
78 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
that new alien species will be introduced will therefore important to continue the current moni-
intensify the need for knowledge. It will also be toring programmes for marine ecosystems.
important to follow up the new Norwegian Black
List from 2012 and establish a good overview of
measures already in use to eradicate, contain and 8.2 Agriculture and forestry
control the most invasive alien species and iden-
tify where action needs to be taken. The agricultural and forestry sector in Norway
The Norwegian Nature Index measures the includes a wide range of activities, including rein-
status and trends of biodiversity in nine major eco- deer husbandry and other activities based on
systems in Norway, and the first edition was pub- farming and forestry resources. Adaptation of
lished in 2010. It is based on monitoring data and these activities to climate change is essential to
expert assessments. The first edition was only the prevent or limit damage both from extreme
beginning of a long-term process of following weather events and from more gradual processes
environmental change to provide a constantly of change, and at the same time ensure that poten-
improving basis for deciding on priorities for envi- tial production gains resulting from climate
ronmental measures and for mapping and moni- change are realised. Well-functioning ecosystems
toring. One aim is to replace the large numbers of need to be maintained to prevent forest fire, land-
assessments by experts with monitoring and mod- slides/avalanches, flooding and other problems
elling based on monitoring data in the next edition caused by climate change. Soil structure will need
of the Nature Index. to be improved and more climate-resilient produc-
Systematic, long-term monitoring is an essen- tion systems developed. The agricultural and for-
tial basis for evaluating the impacts of climate estry sector is responsible for managing large
change on the natural environment. It is particu- areas of Norway, and sound management here
larly important to develop long time series of mon- can reduce the risk of damage in other sectors. A
itoring data. The Nature Index has identified a dynamic agricultural and forestry sector is there-
number of major gaps in our knowledge, espe- fore a vital basis for addressing the challenges of
cially as regards coastal waters and certain groups climate change.
of organisms, including plants and invertebrates. Climate change adaptation in the agricultural
Although many mapping and monitoring pro- and forestry sector has been reviewed in connec-
jects are already in progress, further development tion with the 2009 white paper Climate challenges
of the knowledge base is still needed, and relevant – agriculture part of the solution and the report
actors need sound advice and information on cli- Adapting to a changing climate (NOU 2010: 10).
mate change adaptation in nature management Another white paper dealing with agriculture, for-
and the important role nature has to play in mak- estry and food policy more generally was pub-
ing human societies resilient to climate change. lished at the end of 2011 (Meld. St. 9 (2011–2012)
This can be provided through better use of Landbruks- og matpolitikken. Velkommen til bords.
already existing information channels, for exam- In Norwegian only).
ple www.miljøkommune.no, which provides infor-
mation and advice to the municipalities, and by
strengthening cooperation between different lev- Management of land resources
els in the public administration. The large areas of land managed by the agricul-
A number of research projects have been initi- tural and forestry sector provide vital common
ated to learn more about the effects of climate goods and ecosystem services for society as a
change on the natural environment and the value whole. Farmland, forest and other areas that have
of ecosystem services in climate change adapta- not been developed can act as important buffers
tion. These efforts are being continued. It is par- against climate-related events such as landslides,
ticularly important to focus on the pace and avalanches and flooding. If such areas are devel-
impacts of climate change in Arctic areas and how oped for buildings, roads and other infrastructure,
these developments contribute to the cumulative parts of the surface are made impermeable,
environmental effects on ecosystems, and on resulting in more surface water runoff and storm-
ocean acidification and climate change and the water management problems.
synergistic effects they may have. Norwegian Climate change will result in a longer growing
waters will be some of the first areas in the world season and make it possible for primary produc-
to be affected by ocean acidification, and it is tion to increase, but will also speed up the spread
of forest and scrub in open landscapes. Cultivated
80 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
land must be used actively and grazing pressure From 2013, a climate and environment pro-
in uncultivated areas must be maintained to pre- gramme has been established under the Agricul-
vent overgrowing, which displaces species and tural Agreement. This will provide funding for
habitats associated with agriculture and causes projects on topics including greenhouse gas emis-
the loss of agricultural and cultural heritage and sions, climate change adaptation, reducing runoff,
landscapes. The visual impact of the cultural land- the cultural landscape and biodiversity. Total fund-
scape is of great value in connection with tourism. ing of NOK 18 million has been allocated to the
On the other hand, the growth of trees and scrub programme for 2013, and will be administered by
on open agricultural landscapes may enhance car- the Norwegian Agricultural Authority and the
bon storage and offer niches for new species, and county governors. Knowledge development relat-
may in certain cases help to prevent landslides, ing to climate change adaptation will be a natural
avalanches, drifting snow, etc. Grant schemes topic to include in the programme.
have been established to ensure that active use of Well-drained soils with a good soil structure
farmland continues, including its use as pasture. are resilient to high precipitation. In 2013,a new
Cooperation between the environmental and agri- grant scheme for drainage projects was therefore
cultural authorities is needed to maintain hay introduced, with an allocation of NOK 100 million.
meadows and other traditional types of farmland This will encourage more ditching and draining,
that are no longer used for production. and will increase the adaptive capacity of the agri-
According to the Government expectations for cultural sector and reduce erosion and runoff
regional and municipal planning adopted by Royal from cultivated areas.
Decree on 24 June 2011, the Government expects The state compensation scheme for crop dam-
the counties and municipalities to take steps to age is important in reducing the risk borne by
prevent development of and building on valuable farmers. On the other hand, it is important to
designated agricultural areas, areas of natural ensure that it does not discourage necessary
environment and outdoor recreation areas. adaptation to climate change. At present, there is
Regional plans should identify valuable agricul- a deductible for any claim, so that farmers bear
tural areas and through long-term development part of the risk themselves. This means that it is
strategies draw clear boundaries between devel- not profitable for farmer to continue producing a
opment areas and agricultural land and green specific crop or variety if there is extensive crop
structures. damage for several years in a row. In this way, the
scheme encourages necessary adaptations to cli-
mate change, while protecting farmers’ financial
Grant schemes in the agricultural sector position in the short term.
Over the past 25 years, an increasing proportion
of the financial support provided through the
Agricultural Agreement between the state and the National emergency stocks of seed
farmers has been channelled through grant In 2011, high rainfall reduced seed corn produc-
schemes intended to maintain and improve the tion in Norway, making it necessary to import
environment. Many of these are designed to deal larger quantities in 2012. In the longer term, it
with runoff problems and maintenance of the cul- may become difficult to obtain GMO-free seed.
tural landscape, and are therefore relevant to cli- During negotiations on the 2011 Agricultural
mate change adaptation. Some grant schemes are Agreement, it was therefore decided to establish a
key elements of the national environmental pro- grant scheme from 2012 for the maintenance of
gramme, and play a part in counteracting over- contingency stocks of seed corn. The Ministry of
growing of open agricultural landscapes (area- Agriculture and Food adopted regulations for the
based schemes for agricultural production and the scheme in October 2012. A complete review of the
cultural landscape, a number-based scheme for situation as regards crop seed (both grain and
livestock kept at pasture outdoors), while others other crops) is also needed, to consider possible
are part of the regional environmental pro- measures for ensuring stable supplies of seed in
grammes (for example schemes to reduce nutri- the future. In the first instance, the Ministry has
ent runoff from farmland and to maintain the cul- asked the Norwegian Agricultural Authority to
tural landscape). Other environmental grant review the problems associated with ensuring sta-
schemes are organised at municipal level, for ble supplies of seed, for example clover and grass
example a scheme for specific environmental seed. In response to the recent food crises, the
measures in agriculture. Ministry of Agriculture and Food has also started
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 81
Climate change adaptation in Norway
an assessment of whether to re-establish national table sharing of the benefits that arise from their
contingency stocks of seed corn, as announced in use.
the 2011 white paper on agricultural, forestry and
food policy.
Water pollution
A wetter climate will exacerbate water pollution
Genetic resources in agriculture and forestry resulting from nutrient runoff and the use of
To adapt agriculture and forestry to climate and chemical pesticides in agriculture, and may result
environmental change and changes in production in eutrophication, algal blooms and pollution of
conditions, it is essential to safeguard the genetic drinking water. Climate change may also result in
resources in crops, livestock and trees. Unless changes in the degradation of chemical pesticides
this is done – whether resources are actively used and their environmental impacts. For example,
by individual farmers or maintained by breeding frequent, intense precipitation events may
programmes, by companies, in gene banks or in increase runoff and leaching of pesticides. In par-
situ – genetic diversity will be lost. According to ticular, more rain-related flooding just after crops
the Food and Agriculture Organization of the have been sprayed will increase the risk of pollu-
United Nations (FAO), about 75 % of crop genetic tion of drinking water.
diversity was lost between 1900 and 20006. Breed- The Norwegian Agricultural Environmental
ing livestock and crops that are adapted to a Monitoring Programme measures soil erosion,
changed climate requires a long-term strategic nutrient runoff and pesticide loss from agricul-
effort and access to varied genetic material. The tural areas. Data from the programme are used to
Nordic countries are cooperating on the manage- further develop and target environmental instru-
ment of Nordic genetic resources through Nord- ments in the agricultural sector, in implementing
Gen (the Nordic Genetic Resource Centre). The the Water Management Regulations and in
Norwegian company Graminor AS has national national and international reporting.
responsibility for plant breeding in areas where Amended soil management (no autumn tilling)
the Norwegian market does not have sufficient is the most important measure for reducing run-
supplies of foreign varieties. Grants are available off of nutrients and particulate matter to river sys-
through the Agricultural Agreement for plant tems. In autumn 2011, about 60 % of all cereal
breeding and the development of new varieties to acreage was left under stubble. Although this is a
ensure that Norwegian agriculture and horticul- good way of reducing runoff from agriculture,
ture has access to a range of disease-resistant research indicates that fungi and weeds are a
crop varieties that are adapted to the climate. The greater problem in these areas than in areas that
overall responsibility for breeding and seed of are tilled in autumn. As a result, farmers tend to
Norwegian forest plants lies with the Ministry of use more pesticides. The Ministry of Agriculture
Agriculture and Food. A foundation called the and Food has adopted an action plan to reduce the
Norwegian Forest Seed Center is responsible for risk of damage to health and the environment
practical aspects of this work under an agreement associated with the use of pesticides and make
with the Ministry. Norwegian agriculture less dependent on chemi-
The Norwegian Genetic Resource Centre initi- cal pesticides.
ates and coordinates activities relating to the con- Higher precipitation will increase problems
servation and sustainable use of Norway’s genetic related to the loss of nutrients and runoff to lakes
resources. Norway is involved in international and rivers. The Water Management Regulations
cooperation in the FAO Commission on Genetic require the implementation of measures to
Resources for Food and Agriculture to draw up achieve good ecological status in river systems by
global status reports and action plans to ensure 2021. In the long term, climate change may
the conservation and sustainable use of these increase runoff from agricultural areas, and this
resources. The International Treaty on Plant must be taken into account in future agricultural
Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture and policy. The situation will be particularly challeng-
the Nagoya Protocol to the Convention on Biologi- ing in parts of the country where livestock density
cal Diversity provide the international framework is high or that are vulnerable to erosion. There are
for access to genetic resources and fair and equi- wide variations in natural conditions, climate and
farming methods in Norway, and priorities for
6
Corrected from ‘the past 50 years’ in the original Norwe- measures to prevent pollution and nutrient runoff,
gian text. and thus losses to farmers, must therefore be var-
82 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
ied accordingly. Measures of these kinds are cov- be able to reproduce more rapidly, spread more
ered by grant schemes under the Agricultural widely and survive the winter better. Further
Agreement. They will also be included in pro- development of the «VIPS» forecasting system
grammes of measures under the Water Manage- will be an important way of preventing crop losses
ment Regulations. The system of management and poor crop quality. The system provides fore-
cycles and rolling six-year management plans casts of the risk of damage from plant diseases,
under the regulations makes it possible to adapt pests and weeds for important agricultural and
measures to climate change and its conse- horticultural crops, and helps farmers assess the
quences. need to use pesticides. Fungal diseases are par-
ticularly likely to become more of a problem as
precipitation rises. Researchers have observed
Plant and animal health more widespread occurrence of fungi that pro-
A milder climate and higher precipitation may duce mycotoxins, which can be harmful to both
increase the problems associated with plant and people and animals. Growing problems associated
animal diseases, pests and weeds. Plant pests will with plant diseases, pests and weeds may result in
more use of pesticides, making it even more bandry districts greater responsibility for manage-
important to continue efforts to make agriculture ment of grazing resources. Reindeer numbers
less dependent on chemical pesticides and reduce need to be kept stable at a level that allows flexibil-
the risks associated with their use. ity in the way different areas are used. For exam-
In order to address the challenges associated ple, reindeer owners need to be able to move to
with climate change, it is important to maintain an other areas if the normal winter grazing grounds
effective and clearly targeted inspection and are inaccessible because of deep snow or the for-
enforcement regime and ensure that active moni- mation of a hard ice crust («ice-locked»). A sys-
toring and emergency preparedness activities are tem of emergency groups with representatives of
part of the Norwegian Food Safety Authority’s the authorities and the reindeer husbandry indus-
responsibilities in the field of animal health. These try has been established, and a group can take
activities must be based on ongoing research and action if large areas of reindeer grazing are inac-
knowledge development by the Norwegian Veteri- cessible because of weather conditions.
nary Institute. We need to know which serious More knowledge is needed about interactions
animal diseases are expected to show a higher between different impacts of climate change, and
risk of introduction, spread and establishment in how this will affect different reindeer grazing
Norway, and what implications this will have for areas. New knowledge about the consequences of
agriculture and food production. climate change for reindeer husbandry may make
The results of monitoring and control pro- it necessary to review adaptation measures in the
grammes are vital to an understanding of the situ- industry at regular intervals. The Norwegian
ation at any given time. Monitoring programmes, Reindeer Husbandry Association already makes
contingency tools and plans for combating animal regular assessments of the need for measures to
disease must be in accordance with current legis- mitigate the impacts of factors such as overgrow-
lation and updated risk assessments. ing of grazing areas and changes in the manage-
The effects of climate change on the animal ment regime.
health situation, including the expected increase
in the number of disease-causing organisms, will
make it necessary to step up efforts to combat dis- The forestry industry and climate change adaptation
ease. Environmental change and a change in the Forest plant breeding programmes in Norway
balance between pathogens and hosts, together need to be stepped up to obtain the climate-related
with the possible increase in the incidence of benefits described in the 2012 white paper on Nor-
zoonoses, must be met with sound emergency wegian climate policy (Meld. St. 21 (2011–2012)),
planning and preventive measures. and to ensure that Norwegian forests are adapted
to future climate change, as discussed in the 2011
white paper on agricultural, forestry and food pol-
Reindeer husbandry and climate change adaptation icy (Meld. St. 21 (2011–2012)). Forest plant
Reindeer husbandry will be strongly influenced breeding with a view to adaptation makes use of
by climate change. The Norwegian Reindeer Hus- the wide genetic diversity in Norway’s forest trees
bandry Act is intended to facilitate sustainable use to produce plant material that is more resilient to
of reindeer grazing resources to benefit both climate change. Forest plant material produced
those involved in reindeer husbandry and society through breeding programmes can be used
as a whole. Reindeer husbandry is to be main- across wider climatic gradients than material pro-
tained as an important basis for Sami culture, in duced by natural reproduction. Climate change
accordance with Article 110a of the Norwegian adaptation is an important element of the strategy
Constitution and the provisions of international for forest plant breeding for 2010–40 drawn up by
law on indigenous peoples and minorities. the Norwegian Forest Seed Center.
Reindeer husbandry in Norway is organised in Improving the resilience of forests is an impor-
the traditional way, with migration between sea- tant element of the adaptation of a sustainable for-
sonal grazing grounds. It is therefore vulnerable est management regime to climate change. Appro-
to climate change, which adds to the pressure priate measures include good forest hygiene, the
from other commercial interests, land-use con- choice of tree species, the choice of resilient seed
flicts and predators. Such external pressures have trees and stand boundaries, appropriate pro-
implications for use of grazing resources, migra- grammes for tending young-growth stands, and
tion routes and the timing of migration. The 2007 caution when thinning at a late stage and during
Reindeer Husbandry Act gave the reindeer hus- selection cutting. Existing tools for stand manage-
84 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
ment should be adapted to incorporate climate ards for forest and farm roads. Guidelines have
change considerations, and steps must be taken to been issued on the risk of soil slides when forest
ensure that the existing legislation takes forest roads are built in steep terrain, and how they can
hygiene properly into account. be prevented by using appropriate construction
Higher temperatures and a longer growing techniques and suitable design and specifications
season will increase the production capacity of for- for ditches, culverts and drains. The Ministry of
ests. It will be important for the forestry industry Agriculture and Food has begun revision of the
to make use of the opportunities this offers legislation on planning and constructing forestry
through forest plant breeding, promoting regener- and farm roads, and will consider these in the con-
ation and forest management. Such opportunities text of relevant provisions in the Planning and
should also be considered in forestry planning Building Act and the Nature Diversity Act. The
and in economic calculations where forests are legislation is intended to promote good overall
classified according to site quality. solutions that ensure the necessary infrastructure
Climate change may also have indirect conse- for the forestry industry and at the same time take
quences for forest health. There is particular con- into account safety, important environmental con-
cern about the possible establishment of forest siderations and the risk of flooding, landslides and
pests or diseases whose natural distribution is in avalanches.
milder climates outside Norway. New diseases Access to forest resources is essential not only
affecting ash and elm trees in Norway are exam- for forestry operations, but also in connection
ples of the spread of climate-related diseases. with forest fires and forest hygiene measures,
The Norwegian Scientific Committee for Food such as the removal of damaged trees that could
Safety, which carries out independent risk assess- provide suitable breeding sites for various insect
ments relating to plant health, has detected traces pests. Both the forest road network and the public
of plant pests that could have very serious impacts roads system are of crucial importance for clean-
in the form of forest disease or death if they up operations and the removal of timber after
become established in Norway. large-scale forest damage. When damage has
The risk has increased considerably in recent occurred, effective application processes are
years with the growing trade in timber and timber needed. Coordination between the ministries
products. Some pests would be capable of estab- involved and the public roads authorities must be
lishing themselves in Norway in the current cli- improved so that clean-up operations can rapidly
mate, but damage will only become apparent at be initiated.
higher temperatures. More knowledge of how to There have been a number of major forest
control forest pests that already occur naturally in fires (for example in Froland in Aust-Agder in
Norway is also needed, since they are expected to 2008) and storms that have caused damage (for
become more widespread in a warmer climate. example «Dagmar» in 2011) in Norwegian forests
In addition to developing contingency strate- in recent years, which have been challenging to
gies and plans, it may therefore be necessary to deal with. Better coordination is needed between
strengthen monitoring programmes and certain the public and private sectors in contingency
preventive measures, for example for forest near plans for the forestry sector, so that all parties
Norway’s main import nodes, as mentioned in the involved can work together efficiently during
2011 white paper on agricultural, forestry and emergencies. In 2008, a government-appointed
food policy. working group delivered a report on emergency
Norway’s regulations on forest tree seed and preparedness and response to forest fires in Nor-
plant material date from 1996. They are to be way, and its conclusions need to be followed up
revised in keeping with new knowledge and new further. For example, the report pointed out the
legislation, for example the new regulations on importance of deploying resources fully at an
foreign tree species for forestry purposes. These early stage to prevent small forest fires from
new regulations must be implemented in a way developing into large-scale incidents that are diffi-
that takes both biodiversity considerations and cult to deal with and involve several sectors (such
adaptation of Norwegian forests to climate change as the Froland forest fire).
into account. Rules on plant quality and on the Responsibility for cover against natural hazard
import and export of genetic material must also damage, including damage directly caused by
be improved when the regulations are revised. events such as landslides, avalanches, storms and
Climate change adaptation is being considered flooding, is shared between the Norwegian Natu-
in connection with an ongoing revision of stand- ral Disaster Fund and private insurance compa-
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 85
Climate change adaptation in Norway
nies. About 50 % of the total area of forest in Nor- longer, making it possible to increase yields and
way is not covered by private insurance arrange- grow new types of crops. To make use of these
ments and is therefore not eligible for compensa- opportunities, more knowledge will be needed
tion from the Fund. In view of the climate change about:
projected for Norway, the Ministry of Agriculture – plant material (new varieties and adaptation of
and Food will look more closely at how it would be existing varieties by means of breeding pro-
possible to provide protection against financial grammes);
losses resulting from climate-related damage for a – farming techniques (e.g. more use of grazing
larger proportion of Norwegian forests. Informa- resources);
tion on forest owners’ own responsibility for pre- – cultivation techniques (potentially longer
ventive measures and for obtaining insurance growing season, frost damage, water issues);
against storm damage and the like must be – social and economic impacts of changes in the
improved. crops and livestock produced and in the areas
Forest that provides protection against natural used on production and food quality (e.g. pre-
hazards such as landslides, avalanches, wind- venting any increase in fungal infection pres-
throw and flooding is managed in accordance with sure from resulting in the presence of toxins in
Norwegian forestry law. The same applies to for- food and animal feedstuffs).
est that protects other areas of forest, farmland or
built-up areas. The county departments of agricul- Biotechnology makes use of natural biological
ture are responsible for mapping theses areas, processes and offers unique opportunities for
and the municipal councils determine their environmentally sound, climate-friendly innova-
boundaries, which are also shown in municipal tion. According to the report The Bioeconomy to
master plans. Owners are required to provide noti- 2030: Designing a Policy Agenda, published by the
fication before any logging in such areas, and the OECD in 2009, agricultural and industrial applica-
county governors can issue guidelines for logging tions of biotechnology are expected to show the
in protective forests. Protective forests can pro- greatest growth up to 2010. The report estimates
vide important ecosystem services in connection that in 2030, 36 % of all applications of biotechnol-
with climate change adaptation. ogy will be in the agricultural sector, often based
on new research findings.
Knowledge production
Climate change will influence biological produc- 2. Sustainable production of sufficient quantities of
tion systems, including agriculture and forestry. safe food
These sectors are therefore vulnerable both to A warmer climate will allow pests and diseases to
gradual climate change and to extreme weather become established and spread to new areas. In
events. Research and development projects, moni- future, threats to animal, plant and human health
toring programmes, international cooperation and and to biodiversity may to a considerable degree
dissemination activities are designed to identify come from as yet unknown diseases and pests
the impacts climate change will have on agricul- (weeds, insects, bacteria, viruses, fungi, nema-
ture and forestry in Norway and how different todes). This will require more knowledge in vari-
production types in different parts of the country ous fields, including the following:
best can be adapted. The Ministry of Agriculture – diagnosis, prevention, treatment, pathogenic
and Food is giving priority to funding four agents and control of infection;
research areas: – zoonoses (diseases that can be transmitted bet-
ween animals and humans);
– breeding of more resistant plant varieties;
1. Innovation and competitiveness in the agricultural, – environmental impacts of pesticides, and alter-
forestry and food sector natives to chemical pesticides;
Climate change will make it more difficult for the – adaptation of farming and cultivation techni-
global food system to provide enough food to ques;
meet growing demand. However, in northern lati- – impacts of climate change on grazing resour-
tudes the growing season is expected to become ces and on reindeer parasites/diseases.
86 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
8.3 Fisheries and aquaculture related to climate change, and to reduce green-
house gas emissions from the sector. One impor-
The projected impacts of changes in water tem- tant measure for adaptation measure is the contin-
perature, higher water levels and wilder weather uation of important monitoring series. Following
will require adaptations in all areas of responsibil- developments in factors such as temperature,
ity under the Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal acidification, populations, fish health and food
Affairs. Adequate information about the impacts safety closely gives a good basis for taking the
of climate change and ocean acidification on necessary action. The Institute of Marine
marine ecosystems is needed so that fisheries and Research is responsible for most climate-related
coastal management can be adapted to new condi- monitoring in the marine environment. Rising lev-
tions. Chapter 8.5 on infrastructure discusses els of CO2 in the atmosphere lead to higher CO2
assessments by the transport agencies of the risks uptake in seawater. The Institute of Marine
associated with the consequences of climate Research started monitoring of ocean acidification
change, for example extreme weather events and in 2010. A number of projects have been started to
storm surges. investigate the impacts of acidification on species
A concerted research effort has been at different levels in food chains, such as the cope-
launched to learn more about the role of the pod Calanus finmarchicus, lobster, mackerel, cod
oceans in the climate system and the impacts of and scallops. The National Institute of Nutrition
climate change on marine ecosystems and and Seafood Research is responsible for research
resources. Projects have shown that a range of cli- and development on environmentally sound feed
mate factors will have effects on marine organ- for farmed fish and on seafood safety and quality.
isms at both individual and population level. Cli- As regards the reduction of greenhouse gas
mate change will entail management challenges emissions, the Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal
for the Ministry of Fisheries and Coastal Affairs. Affairs has taken the initiative for the develop-
The Ministry has drawn up a climate change ment of a Norwegian standard for calculating the
strategy for its own areas of responsibility. Its goal carbon footprint of seafood under the auspices of
is to put the fisheries and coastal administration in Standards Norway. The work is expected to be
the best possible position to meet challenges completed in spring 2013.
edge concerning the risks facing the transport The project focuses on areas where closer cooper-
sector. The projects have identified critical assets ation between the various agencies is essential for
in the transport and ICT sectors, such as improving preparedness, risk management and
stretches of road or rail, terminals and control management of extreme events, particularly in
centres, the disruption of which would have par- relation to landslides, avalanches and flooding.
ticularly serious implications for the transport and The project includes risk and vulnerability assess-
communications system. Specific measures have ments, stormwater management, mapping, early
been proposed for protecting these assets, warning and safety measures in connection with
together with emergency plans in the event of dis- landslides, avalanches and flooding, and quick
ruption. The goal is to ensure that critical assets in clay. The project was launched in 2012 and will
these sectors are sufficiently resilient to different last for four years.
types of stress, including extreme weather events Avinor has made substantial efforts to assess
and climate change. In the field of maritime trans- the probable impacts of climate change on air-
port, risk and vulnerability assessments are being ports in Norway. A major project is being started
conducted for exposed fairways and navigation in 2013 to provide a more systematic overview of
infrastructure. The Norwegian Coastal Adminis- vulnerability to climate change.
tration will consider the need to install more The new knowledge that is being generated is
buoys to measure wind speed, currents and wave used to develop specific measures. The transport
height, and will publish the resulting data. authorities ensure that the new knowledge and
Surveys and research are a key part of adapta- lessons learned from ongoing projects are system-
tion work by the Norwegian transport authorities. atised and disseminated to all administrative lev-
In close cooperation with the National Rail Admin- els in the transport sector. Thus the Norwegian
istration, the Public Roads Administration has Public Roads Administration has made changes in
conducted an R&D project called «Climate and its rules and manuals as a result of the «Climate
transport», which proposed measures in four and transport» project. Other developments
areas: new transport infrastructure, existing road include stricter requirements for including cli-
and railway networks, emergency preparedness mate considerations in road and railway planning
and development of a knowledge base for climate and in risk and vulnerability assessments, stricter
change adaptation. The project has provided sub- requirements for the choice of design values for
stantial information on the impacts of climate flooding and runoff, measures to increase drain-
change and on how the transport sectors can take age capacity, and new guidelines for landslide and
account of climate and climate change considera- avalanche risk management and safety measures.
tions. Coordination, exchange of experience and In addition to amendments to the legislation, pro-
cooperation with other agencies will enable the posals are being discussed for adaptation meas-
transport authorities to carry out more effective ures in connection with management of the road
safety measures and develop better preparedness network. In 2013 the Norwegian Coastal Adminis-
systems against extreme weather events. The tration is to revise its guidelines for breakwaters
National Rail Administration has developed a sys- to include climate change considerations.
tem of preparedness levels and early warning pro- It is especially important to ensure that there
cedures for extreme weather events and flooding, are adequate rules and sufficient expertise and
and the Public Roads Administration is doing the capacity at municipal level to ensure that the con-
same. The transport authorities cooperate closely sequences of climate change are taken properly
with the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy into account in connection with local road build-
Directorate, among other things on a national ing. The changes in the rules set out in the manu-
warning system for landslides and avalanches. als of the Norwegian Public Roads Administration
However, further knowledge-building is still are applicable to all administrative levels. Higher
needed. precipitation and more intense precipitation
The Public Roads Administration, the National events often have even more severe impacts on
Rail Administration and the Water Resources and municipal roads than elsewhere. This is because
Energy Directorate have started an R&D project, there are often larger areas of impermeable sur-
«Natural hazards – infrastructure, flooding, land- faces, they are affected by streams with a short
slides and avalanches», that is partly based on the response time, and in some places the infrastruc-
«Climate and transport» project. The aim is to ture is poorly maintained, making it difficult to
make infrastructure more resilient and improve drain away stormwater effectively.
coordination when natural hazard events occur.
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 91
Climate change adaptation in Norway
The road and railway maintenance backlog is ogy and the Norwegian Forest and Landscape
increasing the vulnerability of this infrastructure Institute to find ways of improving protection of
to climate change, and reducing the backlog will wooden structures against moisture. These
be an essential step in adaptation. involve appropriate structural design, develop-
ment of new, environmentally friendly impregna-
tion agents, preservatives that can be brushed or
Buildings spread on the wood surface, use of the correct
The building sector is large, complex and frag- type and quality of wood, and new protection
mented. Buildings are vital to everyone’s lives, methods such as the use of electrodes. Many of
and the sector includes the construction industry, the projects have been supported by the innova-
a major industry with a strong influence on other tion programme for wooden materials under Inno-
sectors. The Government’s overall goal is for vation Norway.
buildings in Norway to be well designed, safe, The Planning and Building Act and the techni-
energy efficient and healthy. cal regulations under the Act are key instruments
The impacts of climate change in Norway will for the planning and building authorities in pre-
have major implications for the requirements that venting the harmful effects of climate change.
will have to be set for siting buildings and for Clear, up-to-date and effective legislation provides
building technology to take account of the higher guidelines for adaptation efforts in the construc-
risk of landslides, avalanches and flooding, larger tion industry. This is emphasised in a white paper
volumes of stormwater and rising sea levels. from the Ministry of Local Government and
The building sector is the responsibility of the Regional Development on building policy (Gode
Ministry of Local Government and Regional bygg for eit betre samfunn, Meld. St. 28 (2011–
Development, which establishes the overall 2012), in Norwegian only). The white paper high-
framework for legislation, budget funding, lights the importance of focusing on climate
research, organisation and information. The Nor- change and the need for adaptation to future cli-
wegian Building Authority plays a central role in mate change when building today.
administering and developing the technical build- According to the white paper, the need to
ing requirements, ensuring that up-to-date knowl- amend legislation in the light of new knowledge
edge is available and providing guidelines and about the impacts of climate change will be con-
information. The building sector is made up of sidered. This applies particularly to amendments
many different actors with important roles in to the regulations on technical requirements for
building policy, including the construction indus- buildings. The white paper also states that the
try, owners of public and private buildings, county Government will promote competence-building in
governors, counties, municipalities and a number the municipalities and the development of a better
of government agencies. factual basis on climate change adaptation and cli-
The sector has given high priority to improv- mate risks. The introduction of new tools and
ing knowledge about the impacts of climate methods to make it easier for municipalities to
change on buildings. Knowledge-building is an take climate change into account will be consid-
essential part of the first phase of adaptation. SIN- ered. For example, tools that ensure good mois-
TEF Building and Infrastructure was commis- ture management will be considered to ensure
sioned by the Norwegian Building Authority to that this is taken seriously throughout building
conduct a risk and vulnerability assessment for a processes.
number of climate parameters. The assessment The white paper also states that the Govern-
provides an overview by county, and is intended to ment will consider the development of local cli-
provide a better foundation for deciding on appro- mate indexes and climate zones to clarify which
priate measures. On the basis of the assessment, requirements should apply to buildings and in
SINTEF Building and Infrastructure has proposed municipal land-use planning. Geographically dif-
a number of measures for reducing the vulnerabil- ferentiated climate data and indexes have not pre-
ity of the construction industry to climate change viously been available, making it difficult to assess
and increasing its adaptive capacity. With regard the suitability of particular technical solutions for
to the risk of decay in the event of a more humid a particular type of climate. Climate indexes can
climate, R&D is being conducted under the aus- be an important tool for developing adaptation
pices of the Norwegian Institute of Wood Technol- measures.
92 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
followed in the plans for new dams and the control winter, and plans for the necessary maintenance
of existing ones. and upgrading should be adapted to changes in
The regulations relating to dam safety cover runoff patterns. The dam safety regulations
all dams that represent a risk of damage to third include requirements for preparedness and emer-
parties and require safety reviews of all dams at gency planning by dam owners for situations that
intervals of 15–20 years. One of the purposes is to could represent a risk of damage. Emergency
identify changes in the loads to which the dam is plans must be based on risk and vulnerability
subject, such as changes in flood volumes, wind, assessments, be kept up to date and revised at
waves and ice loads, both under existing condi- least every third year, and reflect any increase in
tions and in the context of future climate change. risk as a result of climate change.
In 2012 the Water Resources and Energy Directo- The Water Resources and Energy Directo-
rate conducted a survey of the hydropower sec- rate’s licensing procedures are required to take
tor’s awareness of climate change. security of supply into account. Improving secu-
Monitoring and inspection of dams under nor- rity of supply is often given as a reason for applica-
mal operating conditions and in emergencies tions for licences for reinvestment and upgrading.
should be adapted to the probable effects of cli- Much of the power grid in Norway was con-
mate change, such as more frequent flooding in structed during the 1960s, 70s and 80s, and given
Box 8.6 Excerpt from the 2010 climate change adaptation strategy of the
Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate
The changing climate makes it necessary to – Measures and decisions should be resilient
adapt continuously in order to prevent adverse to climate change, in other words they should
environmental impacts that may entail a threat function as intended even if actual climate
to human life and damage critical infrastructure change is rather different from projected cli-
and societal functions. Adaptation includes both mate change.
physical measures and steps to acquire suffi- – Adaptation measures that also contribute to
cient knowledge about climate change to make results in other areas (such as nature conser-
effective decisions. The speed of climate change vation, flood protection, or security of supply)
and its impacts will vary between the different represent a win-win situation and should be
parts of the country. Moreover, the Water given high priority.
Resources and Energy Directorate makes deci- – Adaptation measures that are cost-effective
sions with very different time horizons. The cli- and will function equally well or better if the
mate change adaptation strategy has to reflect climate changes as projected should be given
these factors in order to enable the directorate high priority.
to do the right things at the right times. This – Costly adaptation measures whose effects
means that the strategy must be dynamic and be will be reduced by projected climate change
continuously updated as new knowledge should have low priority.
becomes available.
A dynamic climate change strategy should The Water Resources and Energy Directorate
be based on the following principles: must pay special attention to areas of responsi-
– Measures and decisions with a short lifetime bility where climate change is expected to have
should be assessed on the basis of today’s cli- particularly serious impacts. This may involve
mate. amending regulations or clarifying require-
– Measures and decisions with a long lifetime ments, such as requirements for maintenance,
should be assessed to determine whether modernisation, emergency preparedness in the
they should be designed to withstand the cli- power supply sector and dam safety. It may also
mate change projected to occur within their include support for flood protection and protec-
lifetime or on the basis of today’s climate but tion against landslides and avalanches, and steps
in such a way that necessary adaptations can to ensure sound land use planning that reduces
be retrofitted. risks.
the normal lifetime of such installations, large- The Ministry of Trade and Industry is respon-
scale reinvestment and upgrading will be needed sible for drawing up a future-oriented business
in the years ahead. Adaptation will be a key ele- policy for all policy areas of importance for value
ment of this work, and power lines must be creation. A knowledge-based business sector is
designed to withstand the projected loads in dif- necessary to maximise value creation, and this
ferent types of extreme weather. Safe operation needs to be further developed. The allocations to
and maintenance under all weather conditions is Innovation Norway, SIVA (the Industrial Develop-
another vital consideration. Routeing of power ment Corporation of Norway) and the Research
lines is important, since appropriate choices can Council of Norway are among the largest adminis-
reduce climate-related risks and facilitate control tered by the ministry. One of the areas that the
and maintenance. The directorate expects all ministry emphasises in its dialogue with Innova-
transmission system operators to place sufficient tion Norway is environment and energy, and Inno-
weight on risk and vulnerability assessments in vation Norway is extensively involved in environ-
their planning. mentally relevant networking activities.
More knowledge is needed about how much Climate change could alter much of the basic
the climate is expected to change before appropri- framework for parts of the Norwegian business
ate requirements can be set during licensing pro- sector. For the primary industries and other
cedures and in other contexts. The Water industries that are closely linked to the natural
Resources and Energy Directorate already resource base, it could necessitate considerable
imposes strict requirements for impact assess- restructuring. Restructuring will also be neces-
ments, but will focus more on climate change in sary if climate change imposes new requirements
connection with licensing procedures, impact with respect to siting or development. The Norwe-
assessments and power system studies. R&D on gian Public Roads Administration has already
the challenges associated with climate change is changed the manuals setting out conditions for
being conducted under the auspices of the direc- road construction, and contractors will have to fol-
torate, including studies of the hydrological low the new rules. The technical regulations for
impacts, climate-related challenges in the power buildings may have to be amended to address the
sector, changes in the frequency of lightning, the higher risk of water damage and decay, imposing
significance of changes in sea level and storm fresh requirements on the industry. Climate
surges, the frequency of storms and the effects of change could also make restructuring necessary
hurricane-force winds, icing on power lines, ice for local businesses. This applies particularly to
loads on dams and the effects of slide-generated outdoor industries, which could be forced to
waves on dams. replace their existing activities with new ones.
The legislation administered by the Directo- This requires considerable expertise and innova-
rate for Civil Protection and Emergency Planning tive capacity, and may be a challenging task in
include safety requirements for electricity infra- small communities with a poorly diversified econ-
structure, which in practice mean that installa- omy.
tions must be designed to withstand future cli- Climate change intensifies the need for knowl-
matic conditions. edge-based business development, and restruc-
turing that takes climate change into account will
require research and innovation. Since the busi-
8.6 The business sector ness sector has an important role to play in adap-
tation, it is important to promote its involvement
Climate change will have impacts on the Norwe- in public-sector research and innovation efforts.
gian business sector. Because the sector is so var- One way of encouraging businesses to engage in
ied, there will also be wide variations in how cli- innovation and knowledge development is
mate change affects earning power and profitabil- through intellectual property rights such as pat-
ity. The sector also has a vital role to play in Nor- ents. Climate-resilient business development will
way’s transition to a low-emission economy and also require new types of knowledge. For exam-
through the introduction of production methods ple, if new, climate-resilient activities are being
and equipment that are adapted to a changed cli- planned as part of a local restructuring process,
mate. In addition, the sector supplies products information tailored to local needs about how cli-
and services that will play a large part in deter- mate change will affect that particular geographi-
mining Norwegian society’s resilience to climate cal area will be valuable. If sectors that supply for
change. example infrastructure services are to do so sus-
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 95
Climate change adaptation in Norway
tainably, they will need reliable data on factors ity for sustainability through their own activities
such as precipitation patterns and sea level rise. and operations. This means that businesses must
While the authorities have an important be able meet the adaptation requirements
responsibility for providing information tailored to imposed by the authorities on the one hand, and
different needs and a suitable overall framework, on the other take an active approach by ensuring
companies themselves must also take responsibil- that their investments are climate-resilient. Thus
ity for climate-resilient development of their own the impacts of climate change on society’s infra-
activities. A good dialogue between businesses structure in the broadest sense will also have con-
and the authorities is essential. In Norway dia- sequences for the business sector. The individual
logue between these two parties is already well company must consider how disruption, for exam-
established, and it is important to ensure that it ple of the transport system, will affect its activities
also encompasses climate change. It is also impor- and as far as possible take the necessary meas-
tant to adopt a precautionary approach to new ures to limit the consequences.
business opportunities created by climate change, The report Adapting to a changing climate
especially in North Norway. (NOU 2010: 10) points out how important it is for
On 16 December 2011, Norway adopted the industries themselves to ensure competence-
Act relating to supply chain preparedness, which building and training to meet changes in require-
emphasises the need for cooperation between the ments in different areas. Knowledge-building will
public authorities and the business sector in the also be necessary for some branches, for example
field of civil protection and emergency planning. consultancy firms that often advise municipalities
This legislation also applies to problems that may on planning and will need expertise if they are to
arise as a result of climate change. Issues related assist municipalities to include climate change
to climate change have therefore been raised in adaptation in planning processes.
the ongoing emergency planning cooperation The travel and tourism industry is one of those
between the public authorities and the business that will be strongly affected by climate change.
sector. There are several emergency response Considerable restructuring will be necessary to
organisations under the auspices of the Ministry take advantage of changed conditions and avoid
of Trade and Industry, and the Council for Emer- negative effects of climate change as far as possi-
gency Preparedness in the Construction Sector in ble. Successful adaptation in this sector will
particular has devoted considerable attention to depend on better assessments of how climate
this topic. change will affect global travel patterns, since this
Cooperation between the authorities and the is a global industry and the Norwegian tourism
business sector is also important for community market may be affected by climate change in
and local business development. Regional plan- other parts of the world. In spite of the predictions
ning is an example of current cooperation in this of higher precipitation, shorter duration of snow
context. Adaptation needs to be made an integral cover, melting of glaciers and more rapid spread
part of the relevant dialogue between the local of forest and woodland in mountainous areas and
and regional authorities and the business sector. cultural landscapes, Norway’s geographical loca-
The business sector itself also has an inde- tion is still likely to make it an exotic and attractive
pendent responsibility to integrate climate change tourist destination. Furthermore, drier summers
adaptation into its activities. For example deci- in southern Norway may make this region more
sions are constantly being made on long-term attractive to summer tourists.
investments, such as the siting and design of com- Climate change may also lead to considerable
mercial buildings. The business sector also has a changes in national travel patterns, particularly in
wider social mission that requires climate change winter, when the direction of traffic flows will be
to be taken into account. This includes a wide strongly influenced by access to stable snow con-
range of businesses, for example the construction ditions. Such changes will have considerable
industry, contractors and consultants supplying effects on tourism. In order for the sector to be
services for general municipal planning. Although able to plan for sustainable adaptation, capacity
it is the authorities that determine the framework needs assessments will have to be made for all
conditions, businesses must also take responsibil- parts of the tourist industry.
96 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
9 The Arctic
The temperature in the Arctic is rising faster than 9.1 Climate change in the Arctic
in any other part of the world. Moreover, the phys-
ical environment associated with snow and ice is In recent decades, temperatures in the Arctic
particularly sensitive to a warmer climate. Climate have been rising twice as fast as the global aver-
change is therefore the most serious threat facing age. The annual mean temperature in the region
Arctic species and ecosystems. For the same rea- is 2 °C higher than it was a hundred years ago,
sons, communities that depend on the living and data indicate that the summer temperatures
resources of the Arctic are also vulnerable to cli- are now higher than at any time during the past
mate change. Climate change adaptation in the 2000 years.
Arctic will therefore entail special challenges. As The rising temperatures are causing rapid, far-
the sea ice melts, the Arctic is becoming more reaching changes to the physical environment in
accessible for new activities such as oil and gas the Arctic. The transition to an ice-free Arctic
extraction, mining, shipping, fisheries and tour- Ocean appears to be occurring much faster than
ism. This can open up new opportunities, but may the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
also exacerbate negative impacts on the environ- (IPCC) projected in its Fourth Assessment Report
ment and on traditional ways of using the living in 2007. The summer sea ice cover has been
resources of the Arctic. Climate change may also reduced by about a third in recent years com-
intensify the negative impacts of other pressures pared with the average for the normal period
such as ocean acidification and pollutants on the 1979–2000. In September 2012, the extent of the
Arctic environment. In the Government’s view, sea ice reached the lowest level since measure-
management of the natural environment in the ments started, and was 48 % under the average for
Arctic must therefore be based on an ecosystem the period 1979–2000. The extent and duration of
approach that will make it possible to adapt man- snow coverage have also decreased significantly.
agement to rapid changes in the climate, environ- The estimated annual loss of mass from the
mental conditions and human activity. An Greenland ice sheet has quadrupled since 2000,
approach of this kind is intended both to facilitate and the loss of mass from other ice caps and gla-
value creation through sustainable use and to ciers in the Arctic is also increasing sharply.
maintain the high environmental value of the Arc- The Svalbard archipelago has also experi-
tic environment and its biodiversity. enced rapidly rising temperatures, combined with
This chapter discusses climate change in the a rise in precipitation. Since the mid-1960s, the
Arctic and the specific challenges that need to be average temperature in Longyearbyen has risen
addressed in Norway’s most northerly waters and by 0.9 °C per decade. The extent of the sea ice has
in Svalbard, where climate change is already alter- been showing a clear downward trend both in the
ing environmental conditions and patterns of Barents Sea and in the Fram Strait between Sval-
activity. The chapter also gives an account of Arc- bard and Greenland since satellite monitoring
tic cooperation on the climate and climate change, began in 1979. Svalbard’s glaciers are also retreat-
and the Government’s efforts to strengthen the ing rapidly and their mass balance is negative. In
knowledge base for climate change adaptation in addition, the temperature of the permafrost is ris-
the Arctic. Issues relating to mainland Norway ing.
and to Norway’s sea areas more generally are dis- Because of polar amplification, it is expected
cussed in other chapters of the white paper. that temperatures in the Arctic will continue to
rise twice as fast as the global average. The esti-
mated rate of temperature rise in Svalbard and the
northern Barents Sea is far higher than for areas
further south. There are also considerable
smaller-scale variations. For Svalbard, the pro-
98 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
jected rise in mean air temperature ranges from with the sea ice are particularly vulnerable to cli-
about 3 °C in the southwestern part of the archi- mate change, and may disappear from larger and
pelago to 8 °C in the northeastern part towards larger areas of the Arctic.
the end of the present century. For the sea, the Rising temperatures will result in a northward
projected temperature rises are more moderate: shift in the distribution of species and habitats.
sea temperature in the northern Barents Sea is The Arctic species and habitats found in the
projected to rise by 2–3 °C. It is very uncertain region now are expected to be gradually displaced
how fast the Arctic sea ice will retreat, but both by species and habitats that are currently found
modelling results and the rapid reduction in the further south. The tundra areas north of the Arc-
area and volume of the ice indicate that the Arctic tic treeline are some of the terrestrial habitats that
seas may be almost ice-free in summer by the are expected to undergo the most dramatic
middle of this century. Melting of the Greenland changes.
ice sheet and other ice caps and glaciers is Marine ecosystems will change as the sea tem-
expected to accelerate, but it is uncertain just how perature rises. Higher temperatures and the
rapid the process will be. The thawing of perma- retreat of the sea ice will allow more southerly
frost and the reduction in snow coverage are also species to move into Arctic sea areas, and purely
expected to continue, and ocean circulation and Arctic species will meet growing competition,
weather patterns may change considerably. greater predation pressure and a higher risk of
Future climate change in the Arctic will disease and parasites. Coastal waters and conti-
depend on processes such as melting of sea ice nental shelf areas along the margins of the Arctic
and land ice, and changes in ocean currents and Ocean will be ice-free for longer and longer peri-
atmospheric circulation, which govern the trans- ods, which will be a serious threat to the drift ice
port of heat from further south. Some of these ecosystem and the species it supports. Areas of
processes involve positive feedback loops, which suitable habitat for the polar bear, ringed seal, wal-
can cause changes to accelerate. Sea ice melt and rus, narwhal, little auk, ivory gull, polar cod and a
the release of methane (a greenhouse gas) from number of other species that are part of the mar-
melting permafrost are the best known of these ginal ice zone ecosystem are expected to be
feedback mechanisms. Other mechanisms, such greatly reduced. The distribution of commercially
as changes in cloud cover as the areas of open sea important fish species such as cod, haddock and
become larger, and cooling of the surface water as capelin may change. Warmer water and a reduc-
a result of faster melting of the Greenland ice tion in ice cover may result in larger quantities of
sheet, may moderate the warming process. Many phyto- and zooplankton, but there is no guarantee
of these mechanisms are difficult to incorporate that fish and other animals will be able to make
into climate models, which adds to the uncer- use of the greater availability of food.
tainty of climate projections for this region. Cli- On land, the Arctic treeline is expected to shift
mate change in the Arctic and the processes gov- northwards and upwards, a trend that is already
erning it also have major implications for climate apparent today. In certain parts of the Arctic, the
change and sea level rise at global level, which treeline is expected to move as much as 500 kilo-
adds to the uncertainty of projections of future metres northwards in the course of this century.
global change. Within the same time frame, half of the current
area of tundra in the Arctic may be replaced by
forest and scrub, which would entail major
9.2 Impacts and adaptation needs changes in species diversity.
Since Arctic land areas border on the Arctic
Impacts on the Arctic environment Ocean in the north, some Arctic species and eco-
The rapid temperature rise in the Arctic is systems may disappear completely in the longer
expected to intensify many of the same types of term, or become restricted to isolated Arctic
impacts that are expected to become apparent fur- islands north of the mainland. Animals and plants
ther south. Many species and habitats that are on isolated islands are particularly vulnerable
characteristic of the Arctic today are expected to because it is more difficult for them to shift north-
have difficulties in adapting to climate change, wards to stay in the same climate zone as the tem-
both because of the rapid pace of change and perature rises. At present, the sea ice functions as
because many species will be unable to move fur- a bridge that animals can follow between Arctic
ther north to find new areas of habitat with a suita- islands or between islands and the mainland. As
ble climate. Species and ecosystems associated the ice disappears, more or less continuous popu-
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 99
Climate change adaptation in Norway
lations of species such as the Arctic fox, reindeer mental value of the Arctic environment and its bio-
and polar bear may be split into much more iso- diversity.
lated and therefore more vulnerable populations. In the Government’s view, the integrated man-
This could make isolated Arctic archipelagos such agement plans for the Barents Sea–Lofoten area
as Svalbard even more important in future conser- and the Norwegian Sea will be very important
vation strategies, but could also make conserva- tools for overall adaptation of the framework for
tion efforts more challenging. activities in Arctic seas to changes in the climate,
Changes in snow cover will have impacts on environmental conditions and patterns of activity.
soils, vegetation and the fauna. Some migratory The management plans are already contributing
species in the Arctic, such as geese, many benefit to an integrated, resilient management regime
when the snow melts earlier in spring. On the that incorporates climate change considerations.
other hand, if increasing amounts of winter rain A range of measures to protect particularly valua-
result in more frequent formation of a hard ice ble areas and reduce pressure on the environment
crust, this may have serious impacts on animals and the risk of accidents and pollution have
such as reindeer that are dependent on digging already been adopted within the framework of the
through the snow to find food in winter. This phe- management plans, in response to the observed
nomenon is already being observed more fre- and expected increase in the level of activity in our
quently in Svalbard and elsewhere in the Arctic. northern seas.
If climate change is already putting pressure Human activity in northern sea areas is
on species, for example through habitat loss or expected to increase in future, and it is uncertain
poorer food supplies, they will be less resilient to what cumulative environmental effects we can
other pressures, both external pressures such as expect on ecosystems as a result of activities in
long-range pollutants, UV radiation and ocean various sectors, climate change and ocean acidifi-
acidification, and those caused by local activities, cation. The pace of climate change and ocean acid-
such as harvesting, local pollution, land develop- ification is higher than previously expected. This
ment and disturbance. Climate change may also may result in more marked cumulative environ-
intensify other pressures, either directly or indi- mental effects in the years ahead, and means that
rectly. The declining sea ice cover is making it is important to introduce management meas-
marine and coastal waters in the Arctic more ures that increase the resilience of ecosystems.
accessible for fisheries, maritime transport, cruise Any pressure on an ecosystem must be assessed
ships and oil and gas activities. In certain areas, a on the basis of the cumulative environmental
reduction in ice cover may make it easier to start effects on the ecosystem now or in the future, tak-
mining activities and extract minerals. The ing into account the structure and functioning of
increase in activity levels may lead to more har- the ecosystem. This principle applies in the Arctic
vesting, infrastructure development, habitat loss as well. Cumulative effects must be assessed for
and fragmentation, the spread of invasive alien each ecosystem component, for species and habi-
species, disturbance of the fauna, and pollution tats, and for the ecosystem as a whole. The princi-
and the risk of pollution. It is therefore essential to ple that cumulative effects on the ecosystem must
set limits for activities in the Arctic that will keep be assessed underlies the management plans for
the risk level and cumulative environmental Norwegian sea areas, the Svalbard Environmental
effects on species and ecosystems within reasona- Protection Act and the Nature Diversity Act. The
ble bounds. Marine Resources Act takes the cumulative envi-
ronmental effects of utilisation of living marine
resources into account, and requires the authori-
Ecosystem-based management ties to ensure that they are managed sustainably.
The speed of climate change in the Arctic high-
lights the need for an ecosystem-based approach
to management of the Arctic environment. This 9.3 Adapting nature management in
will make it possible to adapt the management Svalbard to climate change
regime and environmental standards to rapid
changes in the climate, environmental conditions Climate change will pose considerable challenges
and human activity. An approach of this kind is for nature management in Svalbard: it will have
intended both to facilitate value creation through major impacts on the species, ecosystems and
sustainable use and to maintain the high environ- landscapes Norway is seeking to protect, and may
result in more traffic and pressure on the islands
100 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
from various types of activities. The distribution of mate change. This applies especially to species
species will change. Areas that have been impor- that are heavily dependent on ice-covered areas of
tant for ice-dependent species may lose their value sea, such as the polar bear and Arctic seals, since
as habitats, while other areas become more their distribution may change considerably and
important. Thus, the distribution of species and become much more restricted. Another factor it
ecosystems in space and time will be constantly may be necessary to consider is the increasing
changing, as will their vulnerability to local activ- isolation and consequent vulnerability of some
ity, and the authorities need mechanisms that species and populations as the loss of sea ice
make it possible to adapt the management regime weakens links between the Svalbard islands and
to this situation. between Svalbard and Arctic islands and mainland
The comprehensive protection regime and areas further east. These considerations must be
strict environmental rules set out in the Svalbard incorporated into species and habitat manage-
Environmental Protection Act and regulations ment in Svalbard.
under the Act are a good starting point, because Most animal species in Svalbard are protected,
intact ecosystems in themselves make nature but limited hunting and trapping is permitted.
more resilient to the impacts of climate change. It Game species include reindeer, Arctic fox, ptarmi-
is therefore important to maintain the current pro- gan and certain seabird species. It may be neces-
tection regime. A management regime clearly sary to adjust quotas and hunting seasons to take
cannot prevent loss of ice cover and rapidly rising account of the vulnerability of these species to cli-
temperatures from altering the physical condi- mate change.
tions and species’ habitats. But it can help to Extensive research, monitoring and mapping
ensure that the changing climate and the possibil- of species and ecosystems in Svalbard is in pro-
ity that species and habitats will become more vul- gress, and results are reported through the envi-
nerable are taken into account in local activities. ronmental monitoring programme for Svalbard
Important measures have already been intro- and Jan Mayen (MOSJ), which includes several
duced in Svalbard in response to the decline in the indicators of impacts of climate change in Sval-
extent of the sea ice, which has made some areas bard. The monitoring programme needs to be fur-
more accessible and exposed vulnerable species ther developed so that changes can be identified
and habitats to more traffic and human activity. To at an early stage and the management regime can
reduce the risk of a shipwreck or grounding caus- be adjusted as necessary. Knowledge of popula-
ing serious pollution or the loss of human life, tion trends for vulnerable species such as the
ships sailing within the protected areas of Sval- polar bear is currently inadequate. To make it pos-
bard (which cover most of the territorial waters) sible to implemented targeted measures, it is also
are now prohibited from carrying heavy bunker important to identify areas that will become either
oil, and cruise ships that call in the nature more vulnerable or more important as habitats for
reserves in the eastern part of Svalbard may not vulnerable species as the climate changes.
carry more than 200 passengers. In addition, com-
pulsory pilotage is being introduced, and charting
of the waters around Svalbard is being improved. 9.4 Settlements and human activity in
Climate change adaptation is one of the elements Svalbard: impacts of climate
of the management plans that are being drawn up change and adaptation needs
for the protected areas in Svalbard. The protected
areas cover 65 % of the land area of the islands and In Svalbard, as in mainland Norway, climate
87 % of the territorial waters. Management plans change may increase the risk of landslides, ava-
for these areas will therefore be an important tool lanches and flooding, and result in more frequent
for adapting the management regime to a chang- and more severe extreme weather events, sea
ing climate. Climate change is expected to make it level rise and storm surges. Infrastructure such as
easier for alien species to survive and spread in roads, buildings and port facilities will be vulnera-
Svalbard. An action plan to prevent the introduc- ble to such climate-related events. Only about
tion and spread of invasive alien species in Sval- 2500 people are resident in Svalbard, and infra-
bard is being drawn up. structure is limited to a few areas, including the
In the same way as in mainland Norway, it will mines, that are not linked together by roads or
be necessary to strengthen instruments to safe- power lines. Their isolation may make the settle-
guard threatened species and habitats that may ments more vulnerable to climate-related events
come under increasing pressure as a result of cli- that disrupt critical infrastructure. Heavy rainfall
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 101
Climate change adaptation in Norway
in winter has already begun to occur more fre- and heating infrastructure, and buildings. Cli-
quently in Svalbard, and in winter 2012 this mate-related events may put even more pressure
resulted in a slush flow in Longyearbyen that dam- on the already vulnerable critical infrastructure in
aged the road system. The active layer (the soil the Arctic, creating a need for upgrading and
layer above the permafrost that thaws each sum- adaptation.
mer) is becoming deeper and deeper, which Research and the travel and tourism industry
makes the ground unstable and is a threat to are important sectors in Svalbard, and will be
buildings and other infrastructure. Coastal ero- affected by climate change. Even today, the
sion may also become a growing problem for increasing length of periods without sea ice in
buildings and cultural heritage sites near the summer is making areas more accessible to
shoreline in Svalbard, since wave action will cruise ships. At the same time, an earlier spring
increase as sea ice is lost. See box 3.8 in Chapter thaw and a reduction in ice cover on the fjords has
3.6 for more about climate change and Svalbard’s resulted in a shorter season for snowmobile-based
cultural heritage. The Governor of Svalbard is tourism, and restricted the areas available for
revising the risk and vulnerability analysis for such activities. These trends are expected to con-
Svalbard, which dates from 2009. The work is tinue. There will be less opportunity for visitors to
being carried out in close cooperation with Long- observe ice-dependent species such as walruses,
yearbyen Local Administration and other mem- ringed seals and polar bears, and this may make
bers of the emergency planning council. Possible some tourism products less attractive. On the
social consequences of climate change are an other hand, new species that move into the area,
important element of this analysis, which is such as whale species that are commonly seen fur-
expected to be completed in spring 2013. Climate ther south today, may partly compensate for this.
change considerations must also be incorporated Svalbard also has other important qualities such
into land-use and general planning processes in as its wild landscapes and unspoiled nature, which
Svalbard. This work is in progress. During the are likely to make it an attractive destination even
most recent revision of the land-use plan for Long- with a warmer climate. Thus the travel and tour-
yearbyen, adaptation to changed conditions, ism industry will have to adapt its activities to a sit-
including landslides, avalanches and flooding, was uation in which many species are under stress as
one of the topics that was highlighted. The guide- a result of climate change, which means that visi-
lines on land-use planning under the Svalbard tors will have to show special consideration, and
Environmental Protection Act are now to be certain areas will need to be shielded from distur-
revised, starting early in 2013, to include a bance and traffic to maintain their value as refer-
detailed description of how climate change consid- ence areas for climate research. The industry may
erations are to be taken into account for the differ- also have to comply with new and stricter environ-
ent land-use planning areas in Svalbard. Input on mental standards.
how this should be done should be obtained in Research in Svalbard is generating important
close dialogue with relevant actors. Adaptation of knowledge that will be valuable for projections of
land-use management in Svalbard to climate future changes in the climate, ice cover and envi-
change will require enhanced expertise and ronmental conditions. This is key information for
knowledge. An important task for the Governor of planning activities and climate change adaptation
Svalbard is to provide guidance for Longyearbyen both within the region and in a wider context.
Local Administration and other bodies responsi- Focusing on climate research in the Arctic, includ-
ble for planning in Svalbard. Staffing for planning ing Svalbard, is thus an essential part of climate
and mapping functions at the Governor’s office change adaptation. However, climate change also
has been strengthened in recent years. affects research activities themselves, in a num-
Much of the infrastructure in Longyearbyen – ber of ways. Much of the research being carried
roads, bridges, buildings – was constructed in the out in Svalbard is climate related, and the opportu-
1970s. Thawing of the permafrost makes the nity to study climate change in the Arctic is one of
ground unstable and is a threat to buildings and the drivers behind the growing interest in
other structures, and this combined with variable research and teaching activities in the archipel-
maintenance standards, an increase in the popula- ago. The great socio-economic value attached to
tion and a generally higher activity level resulting this research is influencing the willingness to
in more wear and tear, means that Longyearbyen invest in research infrastructure and carry out
now has a maintenance backlog for important and projects and field work in Svalbard. However, in
critical infrastructure such as roads, electricity the long term the retreat of the sea ice may con-
102 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
siderably restrict opportunities for research on medium-sized helicopter to two large helicopters.
processes, ecosystems and species associated In addition, a new search and rescue vessel of a
with the sea ice. suitable size for the new helicopters will be availa-
Svalbard and the protected areas of the archi- ble from 2014. This will strengthen search and
pelago are not much affected by local activity. This rescue capacity in Svalbard and nearby sea areas.
is an important factor, because it makes it possible Since 2010, the Norwegian Space Centre has
to distinguish between the impacts of climate been running a project to test satellite technology
change and those of other pressures. The large to monitor maritime traffic in northern waters.
nature reserves in eastern Svalbard are particu- Moreover, in 2009 the International Maritime
larly valuable as undisturbed reference areas for Organization (IMO) introduced obligatory long-
research on the impacts of climate change on Arc- range identification and tracking of cargo and pas-
tic species and ecosystems, and it is important to senger ships at sea (LRIT), with global coverage.
manage these areas in a way that will maintain This means that Norway will from now on have
their intended function as reference areas. access to better information on maritime activity
Research field work must, like tourism and fisher- in Arctic waters, which will also be valuable for
ies activities, be adapted to an environment where search and rescue operations. From 1 July 2012,
many species are under stress as a result of cli- the Pilotage Act and associated regulations were
mate change, and special caution and protection made applicable to Svalbard. This means that the
are needed. rules relating to the state pilotage service, com-
The warmer climate and loss of sea ice are pulsory pilotage and pilot exemption certificates
also resulting in changes in activity patterns in the also apply in the waters around Svalbard. Compul-
waters around Svalbard. Fisheries activity has sory pilotage is being introduced gradually in the
already increased. Cruise traffic has also grown period 2012 to 2015. It has applied to coal vessels
considerably in recent decades, and activities to and from the Svea mine since 2012, and from
have expanded to larger and larger parts of the 2013 includes large passenger vessels (length 150
archipelago, partly because the extent of the sea metres or more). From 2015, the rules for the
ice has declined. A continued increase in the vol- waters around Svalbard will be the same as for
ume of shipping, both cruise ships and fishing mainland Norway, meaning that vessels of a
vessels, around Svalbard and in the northern part length of 70 metres or more and passenger ves-
of the Barents Sea is to be expected. Such sels of a length of 24 metres or more must use a
changes in activity patterns may make it neces- pilot when sailing inside the baselines. Smaller
sary to upgrade fisheries inspection, maritime size limits apply to vessels carrying dangerous
safety, oil spill preparedness and response, and cargo.
search and rescue capacity in these waters. The
Governor of Svalbard, the Norwegian Coastal
Administration and the Norwegian Coast Guard 9.5 Climate change adaptation and
may all need additional resources and capacity as Arctic cooperation
a result.
Most of the Arctic has already been divided The Arctic states, particularly the five states that
into search and rescue regions (SAR regions), but border on the Arctic Ocean, share important chal-
in certain areas the division of responsibility is lenges and interests when it comes to addressing
unclear or inappropriate. Norway, Denmark climate change and the higher level of human
(Greenland) and Russia have therefore agreed on activity in the Arctic. This applies not least to envi-
a more suitable delimitation of our SAR regions. ronmental problems and the framework for activi-
Norway’s SAR region has been extended, so that ties in areas where use of natural resources and
it now includes the area north of Svalbard and to maritime transport will become possible as the
the North Pole, and its border with the Russian melting ice makes them more accessible.
SAR region has been moved slightly further east. There is effective, binding international coop-
This gives a natural division of responsibility eration in the Arctic, which promotes environmen-
between the various countries, and reflects their tal protection and sound resource management.
actual search and rescue capacity. In response to Even though parts of the Arctic Ocean are cov-
the increase in activity and the wider geographical ered by ice, the Law of the Sea applies fully in this
area of responsibility, it has been decided that the region, as it does in other sea areas around the
Governor of Svalbard’s helicopter service is to be world. The international legal framework for all
expanded from one large helicopter and one activity in the Arctic Ocean is set out in the Con-
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 103
Climate change adaptation in Norway
vention on the Law of the Sea, which clarifies a rapidly changing Arctic. It will develop a range
questions relating to jurisdiction in the area, as of Arctic scenarios for the period up to 2050 as a
well as rights and duties. Under the Law of the basis for adaptation strategies and planning. It
Sea the coastal states bordering the Arctic Ocean consists of three elements: identifying relevant
have special duties and rights in the area. The information from existing reports and projects;
melting ice and expected increase in activity in the identifying other relevant work on adaptation; and
Arctic will make cooperation on the implementa- assessing models and scenarios that can improve
tion of existing instruments and the development projections of climate change and other factors of
of supplementary rules in various areas essential. change in the Arctic. The work will be concluded
New regulatory measures are being developed to in 2017.
meet growing needs, within the framework of The Arctic Resilience Report is a flagship pro-
international law. ject for the Swedish chairmanship of the Arctic
Although various actors may have differing, Council. It is focusing on the risk of reaching tip-
legitimate interests in the north, the Arctic is cur- ping points beyond which there may be sudden
rently a peaceful region in which states display a shifts in Arctic ecosystems and communities, and
willingness to cooperate and to resolve conten- on resilience to such shifts. Norway is repre-
tious issues in accordance with the principles of sented on the steering committee and is taking
international law. part at expert level. The project is to be concluded
The Arctic Council is the most important in 2015.
arena for dealing with common challenges in the Ecosystem-based management of Arctic seas
Arctic. It is the only political circumpolar coopera- is a priority cooperation topic for the Arctic Coun-
tion forum at government level, and plays a lead- cil, and is also an important approach in climate
ing role in generating and communicating knowl- change adaptation. The Ecosystem Approach
edge about climate change in the Arctic. Environ- Expert Group is co-chaired by Norway. So far, it
mental issues are a central part of its work, par- has focused on discussing concepts and terminol-
ticularly assessments of environmental status, cli- ogy for ecosystem-based management, and on
mate change, sustainable development and mapping different marine ecosystems in the Arc-
environmental protection as activity increases. tic. The expert group will recommend guidelines
The Arctic Council has published a number of for ecosystem-based management to the ministe-
reports that synthesise and assess new knowl- rial meeting in 2013. The Arctic Council is also
edge on climate change in the Arctic. In 2011, surveying areas of particular ecological and cul-
reports presenting the results of the Snow, Water, tural value in the Arctic. The results will be used
Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) assess- as a basis for assessing whether any of these areas
ment were published, bringing together the latest will need special protection when the volume of
knowledge about the changing state of the cry- shipping in the Arctic rises. The application of eco-
osphere. The Circumpolar Biodiversity Monitor- system-based management is also one of the basic
ing Program (CBMP) is building up a coordinated principles that is to be followed in developing a
monitoring system with a strong focus on the revised Arctic Council Arctic Marine Strategic
impacts of climate change. The Arctic Biodiversity Plan, which is scheduled to be ready for the 2015
Assessment, a major review of the status and ministerial meeting.
trends of Arctic biodiversity and projections for Specific cooperation agreements are also
the future, will shortly be published. The impacts being negotiated under the Arctic Council to
of climate change are one of the key topics in this address the challenges posed by the increase in
review as well. The project Vulnerability and traffic and activity in Arctic waters. The Agree-
Adaptation to Climate Change in the Arctic ment on Cooperation on Aeronautical and Mari-
(VACCA), also under the Arctic Council, has con- time Search and Rescue in the Arctic, which was
ducted and published an initial scoping study. signed during the ministerial meeting in Nuuk in
Two recently started projects are intended to 2011, was the first legally binding agreement to be
improve understanding of climate change in the negotiated under the auspices of the Arctic Coun-
Arctic and how climate change together with cil. During the Nuuk ministerial, the foreign min-
other drivers and pressures will change the natu- isters also decided to establish a task force co-
ral environment and human society in the future. chaired by Norway, the US and Russia to develop
Adaptation Actions for a Changing Arctic an international instrument on Arctic marine oil
(AACA) is a Norwegian initiative that is intended pollution preparedness and response. The pur-
to enable more informed and timely adaptation in pose of the initiative is to simplify procedures for
104 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
international assistance in the event of acute pollu- to climate change in the Arctic and its impacts.
tion in the Arctic. Negotiations on the instrument For example, the Norwegian Polar Institute, the
have been finalised, and will according to plan be Norwegian Meteorological Institute and the Insti-
signed at the foreign minister meeting of the Arc- tute of Marine Research run research and
tic Council in spring 2013. The agreement should national monitoring programmes that cover land,
make it easier for Norway to draw on relevant the sea ice, the atmosphere and the oceans. The
emergency resources in the event of serious oil Polar Institute’s research activities are designed
spills in our waters. to improve the knowledge base in fields where the
The IMO is working on the development of a environmental authorities have direct manage-
Polar Code of rules for ships operating in polar ment responsibilities in the polar regions. The
waters. This will set out specific requirements for main priorities are climate change, ocean acidifi-
vessels and crews operating in these waters, cation, hazardous substances and biodiversity. Cli-
including ship design, equipment, operations, mate research is coordinated by the Polar Insti-
environmental protection and damage limitation. tute’s Centre for Ice, Climate and Ecosystems
Norway considers it important to ensure that ship (ICE). The Centre’s activities include studies of
design and equipment are suitable for operations the physical processes that control the behaviour
in polar waters and that environmental considera- of the Arctic sea ice. Another priority is research
tions are taken properly into account. on Arctic ecosystems, focusing on indigenous ice-
Climate change in the Arctic and the High associated species, which are some of the species
North is also on the agenda of the Barents cooper- that are most seriously threatened by future cli-
ation and Norway’s bilateral cooperation with Rus- mate change. There is also extensive research on
sia. Cooperation on ecosystem-based manage- the Antarctic climate and the impacts that climate
ment and joint environmental monitoring arrange- change in Antarctica may have on the rest of the
ments are important topics in environmental coop- world. The Polar Institute is also responsible for
eration between Norway and Russia. As part of and runs the environmental monitoring pro-
the environmental cooperation in the Barents gramme MOSJ, which collects and processes data
region, a climate change action plan is being from the atmosphere, land and sea areas around
drawn up, in which adaptation will be an impor- Svalbard and Jan Mayen.
tant element. This work is being chaired by Nor- The Institute of Marine Research also runs
way, and the plan is scheduled to be adopted in extensive research and monitoring activities and
the course of 2013. provides advice relating to the impacts of climate
The Government will seek to ensure that coop- change on the marine ecosystem. In the present
eration in the Arctic Council and other interna- context, research in the northern Barents Sea and
tional cooperation in the High North results in a the waters west and north of Svalbard on biodiver-
joint knowledge base for climate change adapta- sity, alien species, the northward shift in distribu-
tion and ecosystem-based management in the Arc- tion of commercial and other species, changes in
tic. the plankton and benthic communities, changes
in biological production (phyto- and zooplankton,
fish, seals and whales) and changes in the resil-
9.6 Knowledge and competence ience of the ecosystem to environmental pres-
building sures and stress is particularly relevant. Such
comprehensive studies are made possible by the
The rapid changes in the climate and environmen- annual joint Norwegian/Russian ecosystem sur-
tal conditions in the Arctic make great demands veys, which look at the entire ecosystem «from
on people’s knowledge and understanding of cli- physics to whales».
mate change and its impacts. Such knowledge is Climate and environmental research in the
an essential basis for management and planning in North has been considerably strengthened by the
the Arctic, a region where activity levels are rising establishment of the Fram Centre (the High
rapidly. In addition, knowledge about climate North Research Centre for Climate and the Envi-
change in the region is important because ronment), which opened in Tromsø in 2010. This
changes in the climate system in the Arctic have is an umbrella organisation, under which 20 Nor-
major implications for global climate change and wegian institutions, including the Institute of
for sea level rise. Marine Research and the Norwegian Polar Insti-
Norwegian institutions have for many years tute, are cooperating to generate new knowledge.
been involved in research and monitoring relating
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 105
Climate change adaptation in Norway
At the Fram Centre, research is being carried ledge with a view to promoting more commercial
out on climate change and how it affects all ele- activity in the north. The Government intends to
ments of Arctic ecosystems. One key research strengthen knowledge about climate change and
topic is how indigenous peoples and local commu- the environmental impacts of increasing activity in
nities can adapt as quickly and as effectively as the Arctic and the High North. Knowledge is
possible to climate change in order to maintain important for the development of management
their way of life and income base, and thus their strategies that can limit negative environmental
local communities and indigenous culture. impacts and ensure that new commercial activities
The Fram Centre is also preparing to launch are carried out within environmentally sound lim-
an observatory for the ecological impacts of cli- its. This will be an essential element of an inte-
mate change on the Arctic tundra, known as grated approach to developments in the High
KOAT. The plan is for observations to be carried North. An initiative has been taken to develop a
out in two areas – on the Varanger peninsula in framework for the environmental impacts of
the far northeast of mainland Norway (in the sub- increasing activity in the Arctic and the High
arctic zone), and in Svalbard (in the arctic zone). North as a new priority research area for the
The purpose is to build up knowledge of climate- Fram Centre in the course of 2013.
related changes that are relevant to the manage- The High North and the Arctic are an integral
ment of these ecosystems. part of Norway’s national climate-related monitor-
Other research at the Fram Centre is looking ing programmes. Norway collects large amounts
into how climate change affects the spread of haz- of data through field work in Svalbard and
ardous substances and studying the negative research cruises in the surrounding Arctic
impacts of such pollutants on health and the envi- waters, in the Fram Strait and in the Barents Sea.
ronment. Concentrations of about 30 different greenhouse
Ocean acidification in Arctic waters is another gases and ozone-depleting substances are moni-
important research topic at the Centre. The tored from the Zeppelin Observatory in Ny-
impacts on ecosystems are being studied to pro- Ålesund in Svalbard. Ocean acidification is being
vide a basis for estimating the economic conse- measured at different times of year in Norwegian
quences as regards marine resources. One pro- waters, among other things along a transect from
ject, a scoping study called «The Economics of Tromsø to Longyearbyen. The monitoring pro-
Ocean Acidification», is a first step towards a grammes make it possible to measure climate
multidisciplinary approach, which will provide a
more integrated understanding of ocean acidifica-
tion and related adaptation needs.
Changes in the climate and marine environ-
ment will result in new patterns of use of the Arc-
tic that require new knowledge and innovative
technology. Researchers are looking at the future
of the Arctic and at economic and political aspects
of change. There are also shipping-related pro-
jects on topics such as traffic statistics, transport
corridors, regulation of Arctic shipping and the
detection, effects and clean-up of oil spills in ice-
covered waters.
Climate change will open up opportunities for
more commercial activity in the High North and
the Arctic. This applies particularly to oil and gas
activity and maritime transport, but mining opera-
tions may also be expanded as areas become
more easily accessible and demand grows. The
impacts of developments, disturbance, pollution
and waste will depend on the scale of such activi-
ties, their geographical distribution and what envi-
ronmental standards are imposed. Figure 9.1 Ice research – scientists with an ice
At national level, a number of initiatives have core
been taken to build up competence and know- Photo: Ole Magnus Rapp/Aftenposten/NTB scanpix
106 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 2012–2013
Climate change adaptation in Norway
change in the Arctic and to predict future changes knowledge base for management of Svalbard’s
and impacts that may entail a need for adaptation. natural environment is being developed and tai-
A great deal of work is also being done in con- lored to the needs of the authorities. A key ele-
nection with the management plans for the Bar- ment of this work is obtaining and tailoring the
ents Sea–Lofoten area and the Norwegian Sea to knowledge needed as a basis for management
collect and collate information that can provide a plans for the large protected areas in Svalbard.
better basis for ecosystem-based management of Much of the work focuses on the impacts of cli-
Norway’s northern sea areas. Much of the knowl- mate change, and is providing the authorities with
edge generated is also important for adaptation of better knowledge of how climate change consider-
the management regime to a changing climate ations can be incorporated into their work.
and to the resulting increase in activity. The
2012–2013 Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper) 107
Climate change adaptation in Norway
Climate change is one of the greatest threats ply, sewerage and drainage systems are costly.
humanity is facing in the present century. However, unless the sewerage and drainage sys-
Changes in temperature and precipitation pat- tems that are being replaced in Norwegian munic-
terns and sea level rise are examples of factors ipalities today are designed for a changing cli-
that will have increasing impacts on natural and mate, they may not have sufficient capacity to deal
human systems. These changes will become grad- with future precipitation levels. This could reduce
ually more marked as the atmospheric concentra- their lifetime and entail far greater costs for soci-
tion of greenhouse gases rises, and greenhouse ety. Preventing negative impacts of climate
gas emissions will have increasingly serious change through adaptation can reduce future
impacts. Climate change may have significant costs. The cost-effectiveness of adaptation meas-
adverse impacts on nature and on human life and ures must be evaluated on a case-to-case basis.
health. The impacts in countries that are more vul- For a more detailed review of the costs and
nerable than Norway may also influence interna- impacts of climate change in Norway, the reader
tional politics and trade. This white paper is based is referred to the report Adapting to a changing
on the impacts climate change is expected to have climate (NOU 2010: 10).
in Norway. No assessment has been made of pos- The municipal, county and central government
sible indirect impacts on Norway of the effects of authorities are responsible for taking into account
climate change in other countries and regions. climatic conditions, including climate change, in
Climate change may have serious adverse relevant areas of their activities. This is not a new
impacts on natural and human systems. Changes in responsibility, but the present white paper high-
precipitation patterns in recent decades have lights the authorities’ responsibility for taking cli-
resulted in increasing damage to buildings and mate change into account and describes its sub-
roads. In 2011, insurance companies paid out more stance more specifically. The measures proposed
than NOK 2 billion in compensation for damage here, such as the development of a national centre
caused by water entering buildings. However, the for climate services, will facilitate adaptation in
increase in damage costs partly reflects the increase municipal planning processes.
in the value of buildings and contents with the rising It is presumed that in many cases, the reduc-
incomes and greater prosperity in Norway. tion in future damage costs will compensate for
Society’s vulnerability is partly related to the additional costs involved in incorporating cli-
important infrastructure such as roads, water sup- mate change considerations into planning pro-
ply systems and buildings. Climate change will cesses. The development of climate services and
increase the need for maintenance and upgrading improvement of the knowledge base, expertise,
of key infrastructure in Norway. The climate is map data and other practical tools for municipal
already changing, and inadequate maintenance of adaptation work will make it possible for the
roads and water supply and sewerage systems municipalities and others to fulfil their responsibil-
means that parts of Norwegian society are not ities without substantial economic and administra-
well adapted to today’s climate. tive consequences.
The combined measures and policy instru-
ments proposed in this white paper constitute an
active, coordinated approach to making Norway The Ministry of the Environment
more resilient to climate change. A key purpose of recommends:
climate change adaptation is to avoid future costs,
for example related to accidents, disruption of that the Recommendation from the Ministry of
operations and other damage caused by climate the Environment concerning climate change
change. Measures such as flood, landslide and adaptation in Norway dated 7 May 2013 should be
avalanche protection, and upgrading of water sup- submitted to the Storting.
Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper)
Meld. St. 33 (2012–2013) Report to the Storting (white paper)
Internet address:
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www.government.no
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