Computing the Probability of an Event

LEARNING OUTCOMES

 Describe a sample space and simple and compound events in it using standard
notation
 Calculate the probability of an event using standard notation
 Calculate the probability of two independent events using standard notation
 Recognize when two events are mutually exclusive
 Calculate a conditional probability using standard notation

Probability is the likelihood of a particular outcome or event happening. Statisticians and

actuaries use probability to make predictions about events.  An actuary that works for a
car insurance company would, for example, be interested in how likely a 17 year old
male would be to get in a car accident.  They would use data from past events to make
predictions about future events using the characteristics of probabilities, then use this
information to calculate an insurance rate.

In this section, we will explore the definition of an event, and learn how to calculate the
probability of it’s occurrence.  We will also practice using standard mathematical
notation to calculate and describe different kinds of probabilities.

EVENTS AND OUTCOMES

 The result of an experiment is called an outcome.
 An event is any particular outcome or group of outcomes.
 A simple event is an event that cannot be broken down further
 The sample space is the set of all possible simple events.
EXAMPLE

If we roll a standard 6-sided die, describe the sample space and some simple events.
Show Solution

The sample space is the set of all possible simple events: {1,2,3,4,5,6}
Some examples of simple events:
 We roll a 1
 We roll a 5
Some compound events:
 We roll a number bigger than 4
 We roll an even number
 
BASIC PROBABILITY
Given that all outcomes are equally likely, we can compute the probability of an
event E using this formula:
P(E)=Number of outcomes corresponding to the event E
Total number of equally-likely outcomes

EXAMPLES

If we roll a 6-sided die, calculate

 1. P(rolling a 1)
2. P(rolling a number bigger than 4)
Show Solution
Recall that the sample space is {1,2,3,4,5,6}
1. There is one outcome corresponding to “rolling a 1,” so the probability is 1616
2. There are two outcomes bigger than a 4, so the probability is 26=1326=13
Probabilities are essentially fractions, and can be reduced to lower terms like fractions.
 Let’s say you have a bag with 20 cherries, 14 sweet and 6 sour. If you pick a
cherry at random, what is the probability that it will be sweet?
Show Solution
There are 20 possible cherries that could be picked, so the number of possible outcomes is 20.
Of these 20 possible outcomes, 14 are favorable (sweet), so the probability that the cherry will
be sweet is 1420=7101420=710.
There is one potential complication to this example, however. It must be assumed that the
probability of picking any of the cherries is the same as the probability of picking any other. This
wouldn’t be true if (let us imagine) the sweet cherries are smaller than the sour ones. (The sour
cherries would come to hand more readily when you sampled from the bag.) Let us keep in
mind, therefore, that when we assess probabilities in terms of the ratio of favorable to all
potential cases, we rely heavily on the assumption of equal probability for all outcomes.

EXAMPLE

Compute the probability of randomly drawing one card from a deck and getting an Ace.
Show Solution

There are 52 cards in the deck and 4 Aces

so P(Ace)=452=113≈0.0769P(Ace)=452=113≈0.0769
We can also think of probabilities as percents: There is a 7.69% chance that a randomly
selected card will be an Ace.
Notice that the smallest possible probability is 0 – if there are no outcomes that correspond with
the event. The largest possible probability is 1 – if all possible outcomes correspond with the
event.

In an experiment, an event is the result that we are interested in.

The probability of an event A, written P(A), is defined as

Example:

When a fair dice is thrown, what is the probability of getting

a) the number 5
b) a number that is a multiple of 3
c) a number that is greater than 6
d) a number that is less than 7

Solution:
A fair die is an unbiased die where each of the six numbers is equally likely to
turn up.

S = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

a) Let A = event of getting the number 5 = {5}

Let n(A) = number of outcomes in event A = 1

n(S) = number of outcomes in S = 6

b) Let B = event of getting a multiple of 3

Multiple of 3 = {3, 6}

c) Let C = event of getting a number greater than 6

There is no number greater than 6 in the sample space S.

C ={}

A probability of 0 means the event will never occur.

d) Let D = event of getting a number less than 7

Numbers less than 7 = {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}

A probability of 1 means the event will always occur.

xample :

Each of the letters HELLO is written on a card. A card is chosen at random from
the bag. What is the probability of getting the letter ‘L’?

Solution:

Since the card is randomly selected, it means that each card has the same
chance of being selected.
S = {H, E, L 1, L 2, O} There are two cards with the letter ‘L’

Let A = event of getting the letter ‘L’ = {L 1, L 2}

Probability of events
Probability is a type of ratio where we compare how many times an outcome can occur compared to all possible outcomes.

Probability=ThenumberofwantedoutcomesThenumberofpossibleoutcomesPr
obability=ThenumberofwantedoutcomesThenumberofpossibleoutcomes

Example

What is the probability to get a 6 when you roll a die?

A die has 6 sides, 1 side contain the number 6 that give us 1 wanted outcome in 6 possible outcomes.

Independent events: Two events are independent when the outcome of the first event does not influence the outcome of the second event.

When we determine the probability of two independent events we multiply the probability of the first event by the probability of the second
event.

P(XandY)=P(X)⋅P(Y)P(XandY)=P(X)⋅P(Y)
To find the probability of an independent event we are using this rule:

Example

If one has three dice what is the probability of getting three 4s?

The probability of getting a 4 on one die is 1/6

The probability of getting 3 4s is:

P(4and4and4)=16⋅16⋅16=1216P(4and4and4)=16⋅16⋅16=1216
When the outcome affects the second outcome, which is what we called dependent events.
Dependent events: Two events are dependent when the outcome of the first event influences the outcome of the second event. The
probability of two dependent events is the product of the probability of X and the probability of Y AFTER X occurs.

P(XandY)=P(X)⋅P(Yafterx)P(XandY)=P(X)⋅P(Yafterx)

Example

What is the probability for you to choose two red cards in a deck of cards?

A deck of cards has 26 black and 26 red cards. The probability of choosing a red card randomly is:

P(red)=2652=12P(red)=2652=12
The probability of choosing a second red card from the deck is now:

P(red)=2551P(red)=2551
The probability:

P(2red)=12⋅2551=25102P(2red)=12⋅2551=25102
Two events are mutually exclusive when two events cannot happen at the same time. The probability that one of the mutually exclusive
events occur is the sum of their individual probabilities.

P(XorY)=P(X)+P(Y)P(XorY)=P(X)+P(Y)
An example of two mutually exclusive events is a wheel of fortune. Let's say you win a bar of chocolate if you end up in a red or a pink field.

What is the probability that the wheel stops at red or pink?

P(red or pink)=P(red)+P(pink)

P(red)=2/8=1/4P(red)=2/8=1/4

P(pink)=1/8P(pink)=1/8

P(redorpink)=1/8+2/8=3/8P(redorpink)=1/8+2/8=3/8
Inclusive events are events that can happen at the same time. To find the probability of an inclusive event we first add the probabilities of the
individual events and then subtract the probability of the two events happening at the same time.

P(XorY)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(XandY)P(XorY)=P(X)+P(Y)−P(XandY)

Example
What is the probability of drawing a black card or a ten in a deck of cards?

There are 4 tens in a deck of cards P(10) = 4/52

There are 26 black cards P(black) = 26/52

There are 2 black tens P(black and 10) = 2/52

P(blackorten)=452+2652−252=3052−252=2852=713