Navigator

SumProduct Pty Limited

Primary Developer: Hanh Tran

General Cover Notes:

Example to show how to build rolling budgets and variance analysis.

Any queries, please e-mail: hanh.tran@sumproduct.com

Website: www.sumproduct.com
Navigator
Navigator
Error Checks: þ

1 Table of Contents

Cover
Style Guide
Model Parameters
Rolling Budgets_Input
Rolling Budgets_Output
Forecast Data
Actual Data
Bias and Estimates
Error Checks
Navigator
Error Checks: þ

1 Formatting of Headers / Dividers

Description Display Style Name

Sheet Title Sheet Title Sheet Title

Model Name Model Name Model Name

Header 1 Header 1 Header 1

Header 2 Header 2 Header 2
Header 3 Header 3 Header 3
Header 4 Header 4 Header 4

Notes Notes Notes

Table Heading Table Heading Table Heading

2 Individual Cell Styles

Description Display Style Name

Assumption Assumption Assumption

Constraint Constraint Constraint

Empty Empty

Error Check þ Error Check

Hyperlink Hyperlink Hyperlink

Internal Reference Example Internal Reference

Line Calculation 77 Line Calc

Line Total 77 Line Total

Parameter 365 Parameter

Range Name Description Not_Named Range Name Description

Row Reference Row 47 Row Ref

Row Summary 77 Row Summary

 Units A$ Units

WIP WIP

3 Numerical Styles

Description Display Style Name

Comma 123,456.79 Comma

Comma [0] (123,457) Comma [0]

Currency $ 123,456.79 Currency

Currency [0] $ 123,457 Currency [0]

Date 11 Sep 22 Date

Date Heading Sep 22 Date Heading

Numbers 0 (123,457) Numbers 0

Percent 50% Percent

Navigator
Error Checks: þ

1 General

Key Inputs

General
Model Name
Client Name SumProduct Pty Limited

2 General Range Names

Technical Assumptions
Days in Year 365
Months in Month 1
Months in Quarter 3
Months in Half Yr 6
Months in Year 12
Quarters in Year 4

Rounding Accuracy 5

Very Large Number 1E+99

Very Small Number 1E-08

Thousand 1000
Navigator
Error Checks: þ

Rolling Budgets - Input

Period No 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

Sales 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800

COGS 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45%

Key Forecast Inputs For Model

Rolling Budget Start Date

Rolling Budget Start Date May 20

Revenue
Sep 22 Oct 22 Nov 22 Dec 22 Jan 23
Sales 100 200 300 400 500

COGS

COGS % 16.0% 17.0% 18.0% 19.0% 20.0%

Opex

Amount 10 10 10 10 10
Growth Rates 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
 9 10 11 12
Sep Oct Nov Dec

900 1,000 1,100 1,200

50% 55% 60% 65%

Feb 23 Mar 23 Apr 23 May 23 Jun 23 Jul 23 Aug 23 Sep 23 Oct 23 Nov 23 Dec 23
600 700 800 900 1,000 1,100 1,200 1,300 1,400 1,500 1,600

21.0% 22.0% 23.0% 24.0% 25.0% 26.0% 27.0% 28.0% 29.0% 30.0% 31.0%

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
3.5% 4.0% 4.5% 5.0% 5.5% 6.0% 6.5% 7.0% 7.5% 8.0% 8.5%
Jan 24 Feb 24 Mar 24 Apr 24 May 24 Jun 24 Jul 24 Aug 24 Sep 24 Oct 24 Nov 24
1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200 2,300 2,400 2,500 2,600 2,700

32.0% 33.0% 34.0% 35.0% 36.0% 37.0% 38.0% 39.0% 40.0% 41.0% 42.0%

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
9.0% 9.5% 10.0% 10.5% 11.0% 11.5% 12.0% 12.5% 13.0% 13.5% 14.0%
Dec 24 Jan 25 Feb 25 Mar 25 Apr 25 May 25 Jun 25 Jul 25 Aug 25 Sep 25 Oct 25
2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,200 3,300 3,400 3,500 3,600 3,700 3,800

43.0% 44.0% 45.0% 46.0% 47.0% 48.0% 49.0% 50.0% 51.0% 52.0% 53.0%

10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10
14.5% 15.0% 15.5% 16.0% 16.5% 17.0% 17.5% 18.0% 18.5% 19.0% 19.5%
Navigator
Error Checks: þ

Rolling Budget Output

Period Start Apr

Month Number 4

Period No 4 5 6 7 8 9
Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

Sales 400 500 600 700 800 900 =OFFSET($Input.$E13,,G$

COGS (100) (150) (210) (280) (360) (450) =-OFFSET($Input.$E15,,G

Gross Profit 300 350 390 420 440 450

Example Outputs

May 20 Jun 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20

Revenue #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

COGS #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Gross Profit #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Opex #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

EBITDA #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

=OFFSET($Input.$E13,,G$13)

=-OFFSET($Input.$E15,,G$13)*$Output.G16

Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

#N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A #N/A

Navigator
Error Checks: þ

Forecast Data
Change scenario number here (value should
Key Forecast Inputs For Model be an integer greater than zero).

Scenario Selected: 4

Assumption Description Amts Used 1 2 3

Base Year Sales 2012 8,000 10,000 20,000 15,000
Sales Growth 2013 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% 2.0%
Sales Growth 2014 3.0% 3.0% 1.5% 3.0%
Sales Growth 2015 2.5% 2.5% 4.0% 2.5%
Sales Growth 2016 2.0% 2.0% 4.0% 2.0%
Sales Growth 2017 3.0% 3.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Sales Growth 2018 2.0% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0%

OFFSET formulae are used in this column to

obtain the required scenario (others are all
clearly visible).

Calculations

Data Selected and Corresponding Sales

Period 1 2 3
Year 2012 2013 2014

Inputs 8,000 2.0% 3.0%

Sales 8,000 8,160 8,405

Take care calculating amounts using a mix of

amounts and growth rates. Ensure the
percentages reference the correct period (i.e.
not the following period - common mistake).
mber here (value should Add further scenarios here if you wish
r than zero). (simply type in Scenario Number in Row 13
or drag formula across).

4 5
8,000 10,000
2.0% 0.0%
3.0% 0.0%
2.5% 0.0%
2.0% 0.0%
3.0% 0.0%
2.0% 0.0%

used in this column to

cenario (others are all

OFFSET formulae used to transpose data

from columns to rows.

4 5 6 7
2015 2016 2017 2018

2.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0%

8,615 8,787 9,051 9,232

Navigator
Error Checks: þ

Period 1 2 3
Year 2012 2013 2014

to be Used for Calculations Referenced from other worksheet.

Budget / Forecast Data Used

Inputs 8,000 2.0% 3.0%

Sales 8,000 8,160 8,405

Input if budgets are to be overwritten.

Actual Inputs

Actual Data Override If blank, then unused 9,000 8,500

Reforecast Data

Reforecast Data 8,000 9,000 8,500

Summary of above.
Summary

Year No. 1 2 3
Budget 8,000 8,160 8,405
Actual 8,000 9,000 8,500
Variance - 840 95
 4 5 6 7
2015 2016 2017 2018

2.5% 2.0% 3.0% 2.0%

8,615 8,787 9,051 9,232

8,713 8,887 9,153 9,336

4 5 6 7
8,615 8,787 9,051 9,232
8,713 8,887 9,153 9,336
98 100 103 105
Navigator
Error Checks: þ

Bias and Estimates

There are two aspects of forecasting errors to be concerned about - Bias and Accuracy

Bias - A forecast is biased if it errs more in one direction than in the other

- whether the method tends to under-forecast or over-forecast.

Accuracy - Forecast accuracy refers to the distance of the forecasts from actual demand, igno

Example

For six periods forecasts and actual demand have been tracked. The following table gives actual de

t Dt Ft Et (Et)2 |Et| |Et|/Dt

1 170 200 -30 900 30 17.65%
2 230 195 35 1225 35 15.22%
3 250 210 40 1600 40 16.00%
4 200 220 -20 400 20 10.00%
5 185 210 -25 625 25 13.51%
6 180 200 -20 400 20 11.11%
Total -20 5150 170 83.49%

Forecast Measure

1. Cumulative sum of Forecast Errors (CFE) = -20

2. Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) = 170 / 6 = 28.33
3. Mean Squared Error (MSE) = 5,150 / 6 = 858.33
4. Standard Deviation (SD) = SQRT(5,150 / 6) = 29.30
5. Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) = 83.49% / 6 = 13.91%
m actual demand, ignoring the direction of that error.

ng table gives actual demand Dt and forecast demand Ft for six periods:
Navigator
Error Checks: þ

1 Error Checks

Summary of Errors

Assumptions

Example

Summary of Errors þ