C1 Costs

Affirming would be incredibly expensive

O’toole-21
Randal O’Toole, 4-20-2021, "The High-Speed Rail Money Sink: Why the United States Should Not Spend Trillions on Obsolete Technology," Cato
Institute, https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/high-speed-money-sink-why-united-states-should-not-spend-trillions-obsolete, accessed
7-6-2022//IB

Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg’s proposal to make the United States a “world leader” in high‐speed rail would add
more than $4 trillion to the federal debt for construction of new rail lines plus tens of billions of dollars of annual deficit
spending to subsidize operating costs. In exchange, such a high‐speed rail network is likely to carry less than 2 percent of the nation’s passenger
travel and no freight.
[...]

California has spent an average of more than $100 million per route‐mile building 220 mph track on flat land.17 The latest estimates project

that the entire 520‐mile route will cost $100 billion, of which $20 billion is for 120 miles of flat land and $80 billion is for 400 miles of hilly or

mountainous territory.18 That works out to $200 million a mile for hilly areas. At these costs, Obama’s original high‐speed rail plan
would require well over $1 trillion, while the USHSR’s plan would need well over $3 trillion. Building a system longer than China’s would cost at

least $4 trillion. High‐speed rail proponents are likely to predict lower costs, but costs always end up being higher
than originally projected. In 1999, the 520‐mile Los Angeles–San Francisco line was projected to cost $25 billion.19 The most recent projection is
$100 billion.20 Even after adjusting for inflation, costs have nearly tripled. Cost overruns are typical in other countries as well. Britain’s 345‐mile
London–Scotland HS2 high‐speed rail line was originally projected to cost £32.7 billion (about $123 million per mile) and is currently expected to
cost £106 billion ($400 million per mile).21 Even Japan’s original bullet train had a nearly 100 percent cost overrun.22 Once built, high‐speed rail

systems are expensive to maintain. Long‐run capital renewal requirements include replacement of rails
and trainsets as frequently as every 10 years. Transit agencies in the United States currently have a $176 billion maintenance backlog,
mostly for rail infrastructure.23 A country that can’t keep its urban rail systems in shape is not likely to keep even more expensive high‐speed rail
lines running. Rail planners often ignore these capital replacement costs. The California High‐Speed Rail Authority is legally required to earn
enough revenues to cover its operations and maintenance costs. The agency’s business plans estimate future capital replacement costs (which it
calls “lifecycle costs”), but when it projects the future profitability of the project, it only counts operations and maintenance costs, not lifecycle
costs, against the revenues.24 This means taxpayers will be on the hook to cover those costs even in the unlikely event that the system manages
to cover its operations and maintenance costs.

There are 2 impacts

First is Downturn

Salmon-20
Veronique De, 4-15-2020, "Debt and Growth: A Decade of Studies," Mercatus Center,
https://www.mercatus.org/publications/government-spending/debt-and-growth-decade-studies, accessed 7-6-2022//IB
Economists have long noted several macroeconomic channels through which debt can adversely impact medium- and long-run economic
growth. More recent observations suggest that large increases in the debt-to-GDP ratio could lead to much higher taxes, lower future incomes,

and intergenerational inequity. High public debt can negatively affect capital stock accumulation and economic growth
via heightened long-term interest rates, higher distortionary tax rates, inflation, and a general constraint on
countercyclical fiscal policies, which may lead to increased volatility and lower growth rates. Studies on the channels through
which debt adversely impacts growth also find that when the debt-to-GDP ratio reaches elevated levels, the private sector seems to start
dissaving. These findings contradict the Ricardian equivalence hypothesis, which holds that households are forward looking and increase their
saving in response to increases in government borrowing. As America’s federal debt burden continues to grow, the government must increase
borrowing in order to fund its expansive spending programs. This increased government borrowing competes for funds in the nation’s capital
markets, which in turn raises interest rates and crowds out private investment. With entrepreneurs in the private sector facing higher costs of
capital, innovation and productivity are stifled, which reduces the growth potential of the economy. If the government’s debt trajectory spirals
upward persistently, investors may start to question the government’s ability to repay debt and may therefore demand even higher interest
rates. Over time, this pattern of crowding out private investment coupled with higher rates of interest will drive down business confidence and
investment, which drags productivity and growth down even further.

Antiplanner-20
Antiplanner, 11-3-2020, "10 Reasons Not to Build High-Speed Rail – The Antiplanner," No Publication,
https://ti.org/antiplanner/?p=17764, accessed 7-6-2022//IB
The coronavirus has increased people’s willingness to take long auto trips as an alternative to mass transportation. At the same time,
driver-assist systems such as adaptive cruise control are making driving less stressful and increasing people’s tolerance for such long trips. With
Waymo actually having self-driving cars for hire in the Phoenix area and Ford, GM, and Tesla working hard to catch up, the time-cost of auto
travel is likely to sharply decline before the United States can build much of a high-speed rail network. 8. A Threat to the National Economy A
major problem for every country that has built high-speed rail is that, even if the first lines make economic sense, political pressures demand

that the countries build more and more lines that are less and less sensible. Financing these lines requires huge amounts of debt that can

significantly harm the national economies. China has built more miles of high-speed rail than any other country and also
has gone more into debt doing it. At the end of 2019, China’s state railway had $773 billion worth of debt and most of its high-speed rail lines
aren’t covering their operating costs, much less their capital costs. France’s state-owned railroad has piled up debts of more than $50 billion and
has been repeatedly bailed out by the government. About half the debt is due to operating losses and half is due to the expense of building new
high-speed rail lines. Spain has built its high-speed rail system with an availability-payment public-private partnership. Officially, the private
partner has gone into debt by $18.5 billion. While the country is obligated to pay the private partner enough money that it can repay the debt,
the debt isn’t on Spain’s books, which allows it to evade eurozone debt limits. If the EU changes its rules, however, Spain would be in serious
trouble.

For example
O’toole-21
Randal O’Toole, 4-20-2021, "The High-Speed Rail Money Sink: Why the United States Should Not Spend Trillions on Obsolete Technology," Cato
Institute, https://www.cato.org/policy-analysis/high-speed-money-sink-why-united-states-should-not-spend-trillions-obsolete, accessed
7-6-2022//IB
While the country is obligated to pay the private partner enough money to repay its debt, the debt isn’t on Spain’s books, which allows it to

evade eurozone debt limits.59 If the EU changes its rules, however, Spain would be in serious trouble. Japan provides an object lesson for

what happens when a country has a rail debt crisis. In 1987, state‐owned Japanese National Railways had a debt of $550 billion (in today’s

dollars), much of it due to political demands to build money‐losing high‐speed rail lines.60 The government privatized rail lines that were

profitable, continued to subsidize those that weren’t, and hoped to recover some of the debt by selling railway property.61 But Japan was in the
midst of a property bubble—at its peak, the few hundred acres making up the Tokyo Imperial Palace was estimated to be worth more than all
the land in California.62 Government plans to sell former railway land contributed to the bubble’s collapse, and the government ended up

absorbing more than $400 billion in railway debt. Together, these led to at least two decades of economic
stagnation.63 Despite having to absorb the losses from lines built before 1987, the Japanese government has continued to build more
high‐speed rail lines.

In America, the impact would not just be felt at home, as due to economic
interconnections
Arora-04
Vivek Arora and Athanasios Vamvakidis, 3-xx-2004, “The Impact of U.S. Economic Growth on the Rest of the World: How Much Does It Matter?”,
Journal of Economic Integration,
https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/23000624.pdf?refreqid=excelsior%3A64cc362896820d4b041a1070c508c0a8&seq=1

with the other regressors for most specifications. The results suggest a positive and statistically significant impact of
U.S. growth on growth in other countries, particularly developing countries. The regression results reported in Table 4
cover all countries in the sample. The first regression includes U.S. per capita real GDP growth in addition to the standard growth determinants,
while the second regression also includes non-U.S. world per capita real GDP growth.15 A
1 percent increase in U.S. growth is
correlated with an average 1.0 percent increase in growth in other countries. The estimate for non U.S.
world growth in the second regression is positive (0.4 percent), although much smaller than the U.S. coefficient and not statistically
significant. To test whether growth in countries that trade more with the United States is more highly correlated with
U.S. growth, the third regression includes an interaction term of U.S. per capita real GDP growth with the share of
exports to the United States in total exports. The interaction term is indeed positive and statistically significant at
the 10 percent level (it is significant at the 5 percent level if the t-statistics are corrected for heteroskedasticity). The estimated impact of
U.S. growth remains statistically significant even when non-U.S. world growth is included in the regressions, which suggests that the
influence of U.S. growth on growth in other countries is distinct from the influence of any common global
shocks on growth across countries. Furthermore, the estimated impact of U.S. growth is considerably
larger than the estimated impact of growth in the rest of the world, which suggests that the U.S. effect
dominates any impact from common global shock

Bajoria-08
Jayshree Bajoria, 11-19-2008, "Financial Crisis May Worsen Poverty in China, India," Council on Foreign Relations,
https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/financial-crisis-may-worsen-poverty-china-india

By year’s end, the impact of the global financial crisis of 2008 was starting to be felt in the developing world, with slowdowns expected in all
emerging economies. These growth declines could have significant effects on the world’s poorest populations. The World Bank
estimates that a 1 percent decline in developing country growth rates traps an additional 20
million people in poverty. Concern centers on slowing growth in India and China, the world’s two most populous nations and the
largest contributors to reductions in global poverty in the last two decades, according to many academic studies. Reduced economic

growth in both countries could reverse poverty alleviation efforts and even push more people into
poverty, say some experts. The financial crisis has also likely made the achievement of the United Nations’ Millenium Development Goals
(MDGs) on poverty--to halve the proportion of people in extreme poverty by 2015--more difficult. The Poverty and Hunger Challenge With an
average annual growth rate of 10 percent, China has lifted over 600 million of its 1.3 billion citizens out of extreme poverty--those who earn less
than $1 a day--since 1981. In the same time period, India’s 6.2 percent average annual growth rate has brought an estimated 30 million out of its
1.1 billion pe

Second is War

USGO-09
United States Government Accountability Office, ’09 – the audit, evaluation, and investigation arm of the United States Congress (“High Speed
Passenger Rail: Future Development Will Depend on Addressing Financial and Other Challenges and Establishing a Clear Federal Role,” Report to
Congressional Requesters, March 2009, preface, http://www.gao.gov/new.items/d09317.pdf?source=ra) // SP
Once projects are deemed economically viable, project sponsors face the challenging tasks of securing the up-front investment for construction
costs and sustaining public and political support and stakeholder consensus. In the three countries GAO visited, the central government
generally funded the majority of the up-front costs of high speed rail lines. By contrast, federal funding for high speed rail has been derived
from general revenues, not from trust funds or other dedicated funding sources. Consequently, high speed rail projects must
compete with other nontransportation demands on federal funds (e.g., national defense or health care) as opposed to being
compared with other alternative transportation investments in a corridor. Available federal loan programs can support only a

fraction of potential high speed rail project costs. Without substantial public sector commitment, private sector participation is
difficult to secure. The challenge of sustaining public support and stakeholder consensus is compounded by long project lead times, by
numerous stakeholders, and by the absence of an established institutional framework.

This causes global instability

Leiberthal-12
Kenneth Lieberthal and Michael O'Hanlon, Senior Fellows in Foreign Policy @ Brookings, "The Real National Security Threat: America's Debt,"
06-10-2012, https://www.brookings.edu/opinions/the-real-national-security-threat-americas-debt/ //WP

According to the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget, President Obama’s long-term budget plan would allow publicly held
debt as a fraction of GDP to rise further, up to 75%, within a decade. Mitt Romney’s proposal, featuring tax cuts and defense spending increases
and as-yet-unspecified (and thus less than fully credible) entitlement reform, appears worse. It would probably drive publicly held debt to 95%
of GDP over the same period. Put differently, though both are serious and pragmatic men, neither major party’s presidential candidate is

adequately stepping up to the plate, with Romney’s plan the more troubling of the two. Why is this situation so serious? First, we are headed

for a level of debt that within a decade could require us to spend the first trillion dollars of every year’s federal budget servicing that debt.
Much less money will be left for other things. That is a prescription for a vicious cycle of underfinancing for our infrastructure, national
education efforts, science research and all the other functions of government that are crucial to long-term economic growth. Robust

defense spending will be unsustainable too. Once we get in this rut, getting out will be very hard. Second, such a chronic
economic decline would undercut what has been 70 years of strong national political consensus in favor of an activist and engaged American
foreign policy. One reason the United States was so engaged through the Cold War and the first 20 years of the post-Cold War world was fear of
threats. But the other reason was that the strategy was associated with improvements in our quality of life as well. America became even more
prosperous, and all major segments of society benefited. Alas, globalization and automation trends of the last generation have increasingly
called the American dream into question for the working classes. Another decade of underinvestment in what is required to remedy this
situation will make an isolationist or populist president far more likely because much of the country will question whether an internationalist
role makes sense for America — especially if it costs us well over half a trillion dollars in defense spending annually yet seems correlated with
more job losses.Lastly, American economic weakness undercuts U.S. leadership abroad. Other countries sense our weakness and wonder
about our purported decline. If this perception becomes more widespread, and the case that we are in decline becomes
more persuasive, countries will begin to take actions that reflect their skepticism about America's future. Allies and friends
will doubt our commitment and may pursue nuclear weapons for their own security, for example; adversaries
will sense opportunity and be less restrained in throwing around their weight in their own neighborhoods.
The crucial Persian Gulf and Western Pacific regions will likely become less stable. Major war will become
more likely. When running for president last time, Obama eloquently articulated big foreign policy visions: healing
America's breach with the Muslim world, controlling global climate change, dramatically curbing global
poverty through development aid, moving toward a world free of nuclear weapons. These were, and remain, worthy if elusive
goals. However, for Obama or his successor, there is now a much more urgent big-picture issue: restoring U.S.
economic strength. Nothing else is really possible if that fundamental prerequisite to effective foreign
policy is not reestablished.

Devastatingly
Dowd-15
(senior fellow with the Sagamore Institute Center for America's Purpose). Alan Dowd. 2015. “Shield & Sword: The Case for Military Deterrence”.
https://providencemag.com/2015/12/shield-sword-the-case-for-military-deterrence/.
Moreover, the likelihood that the
next great-power war would involve multiple nuclear-weapons states
means that it could end civilization. Therefore, a posture that leaves peer adversaries doubting the West’s capabilities and

resolve—thus inviting miscalculation—is not only unsound, but immoral and inhumane—unchristian. “Deterrence of war is more
humanitarian than anything,” Gen. Park Yong Ok, a longtime South Korean military official, argues. “If we fail to deter war, a tremendous
number of civilians will be killed.”[ix]

Starr-15
Steven Starr 15, 2-28-2015, "Steven Starr: Nuclear War: An Unrecognized Mass Extinction Event Waiting to Happen," Symposium: The Dynamics
of Possible Nuclear Extinction, https://ratical.org/radiation/NuclearExtinction/StevenStarr022815.html //BC
A war fought with 21st century strategic nuclear weapons would be more than just a great catastrophe in human history. If we allow it to
happen, such a war would be a mass extinction event that ends human history. There is a profound difference between extinction and “an
unprecedented disaster,” or even “the end of civilization,” because even after such an immense catastrophe, human life would go on. But
extinction, by definition, is an event of utter finality, and a nuclear war that could cause human extinction should really be considered as the
ultimate criminal act. It certainly would be the crime to end all crimes The world’s leading climatologists now tell us that nuclear war threatens

our continued existence as a species. Their studies predict that a large nuclear war, especially one fought with strategic nuclear
weapons, would create a post-war environment in which for many years it would be too cold and dark to even grow
food. Their findings make it clear that not only humans, but most large animals and many other forms of complex life would likely
vanish forever in a nuclear darkness of our own making. The environmental consequences of nuclear war would attack the ecological
support systems of life at every level. Radioactive fallout, produced not only by nuclear bombs, but also by the destruction of nuclear power
plants and their spent fuel pools, would poison the biosphere. Millions of tons of smoke would act to destroy Earth’s protective ozone layer and
block most sunlight from reaching Earth’s surface, creating Ice Age weather conditions that would last for decades. Yet the political and military
leaders who control nuclear weapons strictly avoid any direct public discussion of the consequences of nuclear war. They do so by arguing that
nuclear weapons are not intended to be used, but only to deter. Remarkably, the leaders of the Nuclear Weapon States have chosen to ignore
the authoritative, long-standing scientific research done by the climatologists, research that predicts virtually any nuclear war, fought with even
a fraction of the operational and deployed nuclear arsenals, will leave the Earth essentially uninhabitable.

C2: Terror
HSR would be another target for terrorism as Luxton and Marino 20 write,

Luxton, Abigail, and Marin Marinov. “Terrorist Threat Mitigation Strategies for the Railways.” Sustainability, vol. 12, no. 8, 22 Apr.
2020, p. 3408, www.mdpi.com/2071-1050/12/8/3408/htm, 10.3390/su12083408. Accessed 8 July 2022. [PT]

‌Terrorism is an ever-present threat that is becoming more prevalent in today’s society. The railway has always been [is] a favourable
target for terrorists due to the high volume of people that utilise it, as well as the vital services it
provides to the nation. The railway is expanding and this will likely result in it becoming increasingly
vulnerable to attack, unless new mitigation solutions are devised. In this paper risk assessment
analyses by a software package conducted on different sections of the railway station provided insight
into the present vulnerabilities. Mitigation solutions were devised to abolish these weaknesses in the system, to avoid terrorist exploitation. They
were then evaluated to establish a workable solution: a modified version of the Thales Smart Corridor. This workable solution should be implemented across the
nation to ensure passenger and rail infrastructure protection. Keywords: terrorist attacks; railways; risk assessment; analysis; terrorist threat mitigation strategies 1.
Introduction September 11th is a date forever ingrained in the memories of the world as one of the worst aterrorist attacks in modern history. With 2996 dead in a
day, [1], the incident highlighted the global requirement to re-evaluate how safety is ensured. Global terrorism is becoming increasingly common, with
approximately 700 incidents in 1970 rising to near 16,800 incidents in 2014 alone [2]. Stories of conflict and destruction fill our newspapers, the latest of which in
Europe, occurred on 22 March 2017 on Westminster Bridge in London [3]. Attacks of terror take many forms. Although their purposes are often unknown, they incite
fear and are typically used to demonstrate rebellion against an aspect of a civilisation they disagree with. A recurrent target of these attacks is popular infrastructure,
with establishments such as airports and train stations being prime targets, due to the heavy foot traffic, the ‘open and accessible designs’ of railway stations [4], and
vital services they provide to society. Airports have rigorous security checks and extensive safety protocols. However, railway stations do not have such procedures in
place, although a study conducted by Professor Arnold Barnett, the George Eastman Professor of Management Science and a Professor of Statistics at the MIT Sloan
School of Management [5], found the risk per mile of rail travel is ten times greater than if you were to travel by air [6]. Yet the railway stations rely on CCTV, public
vigilance, and the occasional security guard to maintain the peace. Despite the acknowledgement from Adrian Dwyer, the British Transport Police’s counter terrorism
risk advisor, that ‘ensuring anything like 100% protection against terrorist attack is not a viable option’ [7], the current means of terrorism mitigation are insufficient
in providing consistently assured public safety. The 2004 attack on the Metro in Madrid demonstrated just how vulnerable the railway currently is, with 191 dead and
1841 wounded [8]. Terrorism is on the rise and the railways are expanding. Due to the developments in high speed rail technology [9,10,11], baggage handling
systems [12,13,14], and urban freight by rail [15,16,17], the railway network is set to expand [18]. This expansion will make rail travel a greater target for terrorist
activities. Alternate, effective terrorist threat mitigation strategies must be devised to ensure the sustained protection of the public and railway infrastructure. 2.
Objective, Methodology, and Scope The objective of this study is to identify the prevalent risks/threats to railway, metro, and urban passenger freight, and propose a
workable solution to help mitigate these risks/threats and to most effectively implement it. This has been achieved through the following stepwise methodology:
Identify the potential risks and threats to people and infrastructure. Establish where these risks and threats have the most devastating impact. Provide mitigation
strategies for these risks and threats. Evaluate the mitigation strategies used to obtain a workable solution. Determine how this workable solution is to be
implemented.

Al Qaeda has already expressed interest in attacking US HSR. Bridget 19.

Johnson, Bridget. “How the Terror Threat to Rail Has Evolved 15 Years after Madrid.” Hstoday, 12 Mar. 2019,
www.hstoday.us/subject-matter-areas/transportation/how-the-terror-threat-to-rail-has-evolved-15-years-after-madrid/.
Accessed 8 July 2022. [PT]

“America’s railroads are estimated to be a 1/3 of the world’s railway. So how can they protect 240,000 km of railroad … it is practically impossible. The same goes to
Britain, with 18,500 km and France, with 29,473 km. It is a daunting and almost impossible task to protect the long railroad length, and yet one of the easiest to
target. That may result to great damage and destruction on different levels,” al-Qaeda’s “Lone Jihad Guidance Team” wrote, adding that “it is time that we instill fear
and make them impose strict security measures to trains as they did with their air transportation.”“[Quote:] We have to expose more of their vulnerabilities in their
security,” the writers added. “And when they spend millions of dollars to tackle a vulnerability we should be ready to open a new [front]… we expect that there will

be no effective solution to the security gaps that may be caused by these types of operations that target the train system.” AQAP
[, Al Qaeda] was
particularly interested in the popular Acela high-speed route running between D.C. and Boston, as well
as discussing the Amtrak Cascades, the Coast Starlight, the Pacific Surfliner, the Palmetto line and
more.“[Quote:] This is the most suited condition for a successful train derail operation. When a train
reaches high speed then it has to be reduced to around 100 km/h. This is because a train at a very high
speed is hard to control or manage using brakes. For example America’s high-speed train ‘Acela’ requires a whole mile so that it can come to a halt,
this is because of the train’s very high speed. Another reason is that the train losses weight and stability when it is at high speeds,” the article stated. “Therefore a Mujahid must
be aware of areas where the train increases its speed and places where the train moves at a high speed. Even better, al-Qaeda argued, is a scenario “that makes the
different security agencies sleepless” — if a jihadist could wage a complex “dual operation” attacking a train hauling hazardous materials through a well-populated
area. “Observing and surveilling the movements of these Hazmat trains” was key, the magazine said, as well as tapping into open-source intelligence available from
government agencies and other outlets in the U.S.

A similar thing happened pre-9/11, however, the statements were ignored.

There are 2 key links:

First is Capacity.

FDF 16 writes
“What Is the World’s Largest Passenger Aircraft? | FlightDeckFriend.com.” FlightDeckFriend.com | Pilot Jobs | Flight Training |
Aspiring Pilots, 30 Dec. 2016, www.flightdeckfriend.com/what-is-the-worlds-largest-passenger-aircraft. Accessed 8 July
2022. [PT]
The World’s largest commercial passenger jet is the Airbus 380 (A380), nicknamed the ‘Super Jumbo’
which can carry a maximum of 853 passengers. However, in reality, it is rarely configured to hold more
than 500 passengers due to the inclusion of Business and First Class taking up more cabin space. The A380
was Airbus’ answer to the Boeing 747 Jumbo Jet which was the largest commercial passenger aircraft for over 30 years prior to the A380 entering into service with
Singapore Airlines in October 2007. As well as being the largest aircraft, it also flys the longest route from Sydney to Dallas which is operated by Qantas. A380 Facts &
Specification Maximum Passenger Capacity: 853 People Range: 15,700 km Mmo: M0.89 Max ramp weight: 562 tonnes Max take-off weight: 560 tonnes Max landing
weight: 386 tonnes Max zero fuel weight: 361 tonnes Max fuel capacity: 320,000 litres

Unfortunately, HSR will carry more passengers, drawing more terrorism. Railway Tech
21

cmsadmin. “California High-Speed Rail Network, US.” Railway Technology, Railway Technology, Oct. 2021,
www.railway-technology.com/projects/california/#:~:text=Each%20train%20will%20be%20up,capable%20of%20carryi
ng%201%2C300%20passengers. Accessed 8 July 2022. [PT]

‌The electric-powered, high-speed train system would draw electric power from overhead wires connected to the commercial power grid. In braking, it would
regenerate electricity back to the grid, conserving power and reducing costs. California high-speed rolling stock Even though the final funding was not in place for the
project, consideration was given to the types of train that could be developed for the new high-speed line. Technology will be based on already proven high-speed

trains from similar systems in Japan, Germany and France. Each

train will be up to 1,300ft-long and capable of carrying 1,300
passengers. A variety of different cars will be included in the formation, such as quiet cars, play areas
for younger families, café and bar cars, and possibly even a conference facility. It [and] is expected that
150 intercity trains will operate through the line each day. The high-speed train will reflect the design of the new Series 500 and
700 Shinkansen trains that operate with a maximum speed of approximately 187mph in Japan and French TGV and AGV (Automotrice Grande Vitesse).
Steel-wheel-on-steel-rail technology has been preferred to maglev (magnetic levitation systems) technology. Signalling and communications High-speed train traffic
control and communications systems are centrally regulated and managed during all hours of operation. These systems monitor and limit the train’s speed, schedule,
routing and headway.

The higher the population density, the higher the likelihood of terrorism. Nemeth et
al. 14

“The Primacy of the Local: Identifying Terrorist Hot Spots Using Geographic Information Systems | the Journal of Politics: Vol 76,
No 2.” The Journal of Politics, 2014, www.journals.uchicago.edu/doi/10.1017/S0022381613001333. Accessed 8 July 2022.
[PT]

‌Despite the wide range of studies focused on the causes of terrorism, most use the state as the unit of analysis. Doing so, however, overlooks important variation
that occurs within the state. Our research seeks to determine the causes of domestic terrorism through a more refined unit of analysis. We do this by using the
PRIO-GRID cell structure spatially merged with a geocoded version of the GTD dataset. We then perform a Getis-Ord Gi* hot spot analysis to uncover those local

areas most prone to domestic terrorism. Our

results indicate the following attributes increase the likelihood of
terrorism: mountainous terrain, close proximity to a state capital, large population, high population
density [increase the likelihood of terrorism], and poor economic conditions. When testing between regime types, we
find that factors such as population, economic conditions, and the number of ethnic groups are significant only in democracies, while distance to capital is significant
only in autocracies. Researchers have long struggled to determine the causes of domestic and international terrorism.1 In the search for answers, scholars have
focused on a wide range of political, economic, and social factors, typically relying on the state as a unit of analysis (see Young and Findley 2011). While this has
yielded a wealth of findings, the availability of new theory and data allows us to consider a novel approach that takes into account both the enormous heterogeneity
within states and the fundamental differences between international and domestic terrorism
Second is Security.

Maurillo 11
Maurillo, Donna. High-Speed Rail in the US: Will It Be a More Attractive Terror Target than Inter-City Rail? [PT]
‌Second, the discovery of Osama bin Laden’s trove of correspondence and terrorrelated documents has heightened America’s sensitivity to possible attacks on its rail
system. Although rail professionals and counter-terrorism experts have long recognized it, Americans are just beginning to realize that rail is much more vulnerable
than the relatively closed airline system. In fact, a recent editorial in the Peoria Journal Star said, “It's clear that our enemies view our rail system as having some
security holes. Furthermore, ridership on Amtrak continues to increase, up 10 percent so far over last year on Illinois routes for example. “It has been said that 9-11
happened because of a failure of American imagination. We no longer have that excuse. High-speed rail investment is an Obama 8 administration priority. Nothing

would kill that concept faster than a high-profile train terrorist strike in the U.S. Passenger safety has to be a part of this discussion.” 1 Third,
rail security
is more difficult than airline security because it must address much larger numbers of travelers. Of
necessity, screening must be brief to keep the crowds moving efficiently. This can allow lethal devices
to pass through undetected into the cars. Even chemical-sniffing canines and random screening are imperfect enough to leave certain
vulnerabilities in the rail system. And crowds standing in long screening lines can be vulnerable to attack, as well. In
addition, a new HSR system in the United States could become a tempting target for those who would wish to destroy any icon of Western values – especially if the
nation had just invested a staggering sum of money into it. Attacking airlines is not an easy endeavor. The majority of US transportation security investment has
focused on air travel, making another attack much more daunting. On the other hand, rail is so much more accessible and vulnerable not only at the stations, but
also along the entire route, where derailments can be carried out in remote areas. By contrast, an airliner is reasonably safe once it has left the ground.

This was empirically proven in Paris. Ray 22 finds that

“Paris Attacks of 2015 | Timeline, Events, & Aftermath | Britannica.” Encyclopædia Britannica, 2022,
www.britannica.com/event/Paris-attacks-of-2015. Accessed 8 July 2022. [PT]

‌The attacks led to a dramatic increase in domestic security spending, with French Pres. François Hollande pledging more than $850 million to fund counterterrorism
efforts. There was also a spike in the number of reported Islamophobic incidents following the attacks, a worrying development given that France was home to

western Europe’s largest Muslim community. The increased

security measures did not prevent an attempted attack on a
high-speed passenger train in northern France on August 21. Ayoub El-Khazzani, [in 2015 when] a militant with ties to ISIL, smuggled an
AK-47, a semiautomatic pistol, and hundreds of rounds of ammunition onto the crowded Paris-bound train. A potential massacre was averted when El-Khazzani was
subdued by passengers, among them a pair of off-duty U.S. military personnel who were traveling on holiday. In September French warplanes began striking ISIL
targets inside Syria; France already had been targeting ISIL positions inside Iraq since September 2014. The November 13 attacks The November 13 attacks on Paris
and environs began at 9:20 PM, when a suicide bomber was foiled in his attempt to enter the Stade de France in the northern suburb of Saint-Denis. Inside the
stadium, Hollande was among the 80,000 people watching an association football (soccer) match between the French and German national teams. When security
officers at one of the stadium’s main entrances detected the attacker’s bomb belt, he detonated it, killing one passerby. The belt was an improvised device consisting
of the highly unstable explosive compound triacetone triperoxide and shrapnel such as nails and ball bearings; identical devices would be employed by other
attackers throughout the evening. Although the blast was audible to those inside the stadium, play on the field continued.

The impact is extinction

Terrorism causes the US to turn inward, causing use of nuclear weapons. Kagan et al.
16
Kagan, Frederick W. “One-Pager: Al Qaeda and Isis: Existential Threats to the US ... - Aei.org.” AL QAEDA AND ISIS: EXISTENTIAL
THREATS TO THE U.S. AND EUROPE, AEI, Jan. 2016,
https://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2016/01/Al_Qaeda_ISIS_PlanEx_Report_1_One_pager_012116.pdf. [PT]

The key findings of this first report are: • Salafi-jihadi military organizations, particularly ISIS and al Qaeda, are the greatest threat to the security
and values of American and European citizens. ISIS and al Qaeda pose an existential threat because they accelerate the
collapse of world order, provoke domestic and global trends that endanger American values and way of
life, and plan direct attacks against the U.S. and its partners. • Syrian al Qaeda affiliate Jabhat al Nusra poses one of the most significant
long-term threats of any Salafi-jihadi group. This al Qaeda affiliate has established an expansive network of partnerships with local opposition groups that have grown either dependent on or
fiercely loyal to the organization. Its defeat and destruction must be one of the highest priorities of any strategy to defend the United States and Europe from al Qaeda attacks. • ISIS and al
Qaeda are more than terrorist groups; they are insurgencies. They use terrorism as a tactic, but these organizations are insurgencies that aim first to overthrow all existing governments in the
Muslim world and replace them with their own, and later, to attack the West from a position of power to spread their ideology to all of humanity. Separating the elements of ISIS and al Qaeda
that are actively working to attack the West from the main bodies of those groups fighting in the Middle East, Africa, and South Asia is impossible. All al Qaeda groups and ISIS affiliates seek to
take the war into the West to fulfill their grand strategic objective of establishing a global caliphate, albeit according to different timelines. • Current counter-ISIS and –al Qaeda policies do not
ensure the safety of the American people or the homeland. The primary objective of the U.S. government remains protecting the homeland and the American people, including safeguarding
American values both in the homeland and abroad. The activities of ISIS and al Qaeda interact with the policies of Russia, Iran, and China to endanger the international systems upon which
American safety and freedom depend. Any strategy to counter ISIS and al Qaeda will require coalition partners. However, there is no natural coalition of states with common goals that can
readily work together to resolve this problem. The U.S. must lead its partners and ensure the continuation of existing guarantors of international security such as NATO. • American and
Western security requires the elimination of ISIS and al Qaeda regional bases and safe havens. Salafi-jihadi groups independent of al Qaeda and ISIS form a base of support from which the
enemy draws strength and resilience. ISIS and al Qaeda use the extensive safe haven and infrastructure of locally focused Salafi-jihadi groups to help plan, train, and equip fighters for attacks
against the West. Destroying specific cells or nodes actively preparing attacks against the West is not sufficient. Al Qaeda and ISIS will be able to reconstitute the threat as long as Salafi-jihadi
military organizations continue to support them. By Frederick W. Kagan, Kimberly Kagan, Jennifer Cafarella, Harleen Gambhir, and Katherine Zimmerman U.S. GRAND STRATEGY: DESTROYING
ISIS AND AL QAEDA, REPORT ONE INTRODUCTION The terrorist attacks in Paris, France, and San Bernardino, California have focused the West again on the threat that militant Salafi-jihadi
groups pose to its security and way of life. They have provoked France, Britain, and the United States to increase their military efforts against the Islamic State of Iraq and al Sham (ISIS) in Syria
and Iraq. They have demonstrated the fallacy of the idea that ISIS can be indefinitely contained within Iraq and Syria, the Middle East, or even the Muslim-majority world. They have revealed
the inadequacy of current strategies to address the threat. These tragedies have thus created space for a serious discussion about the nature of the threat and the responses required to

counter it. PERVASIVE MISCHARACTERIZATIONS OF THE CHALLENGE The media’s and policymakers’ single-minded focus on ISIS encourages Americans to
overlook the fundamental incompatibility of Iranian and Russian regional and global objectives with those of the U.S. and Europe. Such a narrow lens ignores Russia’s
revisionist grand strategy that links Moscow’s actions in Syria with its continued war in Ukraine, its subversive activities in the Baltics, and its mounting global military aggression. It
simplifies an extremely complicated set of multi-actor, multi-theater conflicts into a problem that can
be solved through counter-terrorism-targeting and homeland security measures. It guarantees that the
West will not design or execute a coherent strategy to secure its vital national interests. The San
Bernardino attack in California adds superficial validity to the idea that the U.S. must turn inward to
secure itself. It brings to the fore domestic issues such as gun control, law enforcement procedures, immigration policies, religious freedom, profiling, and many others. Each issue is
important in its own right, and finding the right balance among competing valid concerns is essential to enhance America’s ability to protect its citizens without compromising the civil liberties

and individual rights that are the bedrock of our society. Defensive and internal measures will not adequately protect Americans at home, however. Passivity abroad will
facilitate the continued collapse of the international order, including the global economy on which
American prosperity and the American way of life depend. More states will fail; more conflict will displace refugees;
adversaries will revise borders by force and will contest the freedom of the seas; others will test weapons of mass
destruction. The symptoms of the collapsing world order have appeared already: the promises of the
Arab Spring have largely failed states; ISIS has overrun the borders of Iraq and Syria; Russia has annexed
border provinces in Ukraine; refugees and migrants have overwhelmed Europe and collapsed the
Schengen Zone; Iran has fired missiles in the Straits of Hormuz; China has built islands to allow it to
project power; and North Korea has tested a nuclear weapon. The collapse of world order creates the
vacuums that allow Salafi-jihadi military organizations such as al Qaeda and ISIS to amass resources to plan and conduct attacks on
scales that could overwhelm any defenses the United States might raise. Even a marginal increase in such
attacks could provoke Western societies to impose severe controls on the freedoms and civil liberties
of their populations that would damage the very ideals that must most be defended. Sound strategy
against these enemies requires effective action against their bases as well appropriate domestic efforts. The inextricable
interrelationship between the strength of ISIS and al Qaeda in the Muslim-majority world and the threat of direct attack the groups pose within Europe and the United States is one of the most

important findings of this exercise. Attempts to identify and target the specific enemy cells planning, preparing, or
executing attacks on the U.S. homeland separately from the larger groups of which those cells are a part will inevitably fail to protect the American people. The
regional bases of ISIS and al Qaeda provide a pool of resources and specific capabilities that will enable them to direct growing numbers of
sophisticated attacks into the West whenever they so desire. American and Western security requires the
elimination of ISIS and al Qaeda regional bases and safe havens.

A nuclear strike would cause extinction, Avery-13

John Avery, 9-06-2013, "An Attack On Iran Could Escalate Into Global Nuclear War By John Scales Avery," Counter Currents,
https://www.countercurrents.org/avery061113.htm (QUALS: John Avery studied theoretical chemistry at the University of
London, and was awarded a Ph.D. there in 1965. He is now Associate Professor, at the Department of Chemistry, University of
Copenhagen. He has been the Contact Person in Denmark for Pugwash Conferences on Science and World Affairs. In 1995, this
group received the Nobel Peace Prize for their efforts.)//IB

Despite the willingness of Iran's new President, Hassan Rouhani to make all reasonable concessions to [the] US demands, Israeli pressure groups in Washington
continue to demand an attack on Iran. But such an attack might escalate into a global nuclear war, with catastrophic consequences. As we approach the 100th
anniversary World War I, we should remember that this colossal disaster escalated uncontrollably from what was intended to be a minor conflict. There is a danger
that an attack on Iran would escalate into a large-scale war in the Middle East, entirely destabilizing a region that is already deep in problems. The unstable
government of Pakistan might be overthrown, and the revolutionary Pakistani government might enter the war on the side of Iran, thus introducing nuclear weapons
into the conflict. Russia and China, firm allies of Iran, might also be drawn into a general war in the Middle East. Since much of the world's oil comes from the region,
such a war would certainly cause the price of oil to reach unheard-of heights, with catastrophic effects on the global economy. In the dangerous situation that could

potentially result from an attack on Iran, there is a risk that [and] nuclear weapons would be used, either intentionally, or
by accident or miscalculation. Recent research has shown that besides making large areas of the world uninhabitable through long-lasting radioactive
contamination, a nuclear war would damage global agriculture to such a extent that a global famine of previously unknown

proportions would result. Thus, nuclear war is the ultimate ecological catastrophe. It could destroy
human civilization and much of the biosphere. To risk such a war would be an unforgivable offense against the lives and future of all
the peoples of the world, US citizens included. To accept money from agents of a foreign power to perform actions that put one's own country in danger is, by
definition, an act of treason. Why are members of the US Senate and House of Representatives, who demonstrably have accepted money from agents of a foreign
power, the State of Israel, not accused of treason when they are bribed to take actions that put their country in danger? If members of the US government should
vote for an attack on Iran, they would be traitors not only to the United States, but to all of humanity, and indeed traitors to all living things.

C3 Pandemics

High speed rail increases the spread of pandemics faster than other transport methods
Zhu and Guo 21, Zhu P, Guo Y. The role of high-speed rail and air travel in the spread of COVID-19 in China. Travel Med Infect Dis.
2021 Jul-Aug;42:102097. doi: 10.1016/j.tmaid.2021.102097. Epub 2021 May 31. PMID: 34082087; PMCID: PMC8166159.
Public transportation is a major facilitator of the spread of infectious diseases and has been a focus of policy interventions aiming to suppress
the current COVID-19 epidemic.Methods: We use a random-effects panel data model and a Difference-in-Differences in Reverse (DDR) model to
examine how air and rail transport links with Wuhan as well as the suspension of these transport links influenced the development of the
We find high-speed rail (HSR) and air connectivity with Wuhan resulted in 25.4%
epidemic in China.Results:

and 21.2% increases in the average number of daily new confirmed cases, respectively, while their
suspension led to 18.6% and 13.3% decreases in that number. We also find that the suspension effect was dynamic,
growing stronger over time and peaking 20-23 days after the Wuhan lockdown, then gradually wearing off. It took approximately four weeks for
this effect to fully materialize, roughly twice the maximum incubation period, and similar dynamic patterns were seen in both HSR and air
models. Overall, HSR had a greater impact on COVID-19 development than air transport.Conclusions: Our
research provides important evidence for implementing transportation-related policies in controlling future infectious diseases.

More travel increases chances of infection

Liu et al. 20, Liu Rucheng, Li Dan, Kaewunruen Sakdirat 2020. ‘Role of Railway Transportation in the Spread of the Coronavirus: Evidence
From Wuhan-Beijing Railway Corridor’. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fbuil.2020.590146/full
The last few months have marked a notable surge in COVID-19. The disease has infected 10 million people around the world and has gained
attention in the field of research. Allegedly originating in China, the virus has spread to nearly every country. The
current study aims
to analyze the potential spread of the coronavirus through rail transport by considering the case of the
Wuhan-Beijing railway corridor in China. It has been found that approximately 43,000 people travel
daily through this railway line, which indicates a high chance for this railway line to spread the virus.
This study adopts a quantitative methodology to analyze the spread of the disease due to a large number of people traveling on the
Wuhan-Beijing railway line. The findings of this study establish that the railway line leaving Wuhan carries approximately 43,000 people daily.
The more people travel, the higher the chances are for the spread of the disease through this railway
line. In line with that, the study has also analyzed the effectiveness of control measures such as lockdown, the use of masks, sanitization, and
social distancing for railway authorities as well as passengers. This study concludes by proposing new practical recommendations for further
controlling the spread of the disease in Wuhan.

The next pandemic is around the corner and threatens all of humanity
Chan and Salzman 20 Dr. Jonathan Chan and Sony Salzman September 3, 2020 As COVID-19 continues, experts warn of next

pandemic likely to come from animals https://abcnews.go.com/Health/covid-19-continues-experts-warn-pandemic-animals/story?id=72755696

Even as the COVID-19 pandemic rages on, experts are warning that the next pandemic could arrive at
any moment, and again, it could come from animals. To prevent history from repeating itself, experts
say governments need to start investing heavily in pandemic prevention efforts. That means deploying teams of
biologists, zoologists and veterinarians to begin monitoring animals and the people who interact with them -- an army of scientists tasked with stamping out the next deadly virus before an
animal disease balloons into a global pandemic. According to the World Health Organization, approximately 1 billion cases and millions of deaths each year can be traced back to diseases
originating from animal populations. In the past three decades, researchers have found more than 30 bacteria or viruses that are capable of infecting humans. Over three quarters of those

are believed to have come from animal populations. And while the current pandemic may feel like a very rare happening,
scientists say the pace of these pandemics is accelerating dramatically thanks to humans'
ever-encroaching proximity to wildlife. Beginning with SARS almost two decades ago and followed by West Nile, Ebola, Zika and currently, COVID-19, many
of these pandemics originated with species of bats, and can be spread between people through coughing and sneezing or through insects such as mosquitoes . "The time
between these outbreaks is getting shorter and shorter," said Dr. Tracey McNamara, a professor of
pathology at Western University of Health Sciences College of Veterinary Medicine. And it's becoming increasingly
clear that these viruses aren't just a threat to our health -- they're also a threat to the global economy. "We are only able to sustain an outbreak maybe once every decade," said Dr. Peter

Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance. "The rate we are going is not sustainable." The COVID-19 pandemic did not surprise McNamara and Daszak . For decades, they,
and other scientists, have been warning politicians and the public that wild and domestic animals --
and the viruses they carry -- pose a threat to humanity. Without proper monitoring and surveillance of
these creatures, they warned, we would be ill-prepared to stop a virus from spreading across the
globe. McNamara was part of the "Red Dawn" group, a now-infamous email chain of top scientists that asked powerful U.S. government officials to mount a more vigorous domestic
defense back when coronavirus was still considered a problem confined to China's borders. And Daszak, who has spent much of his career hunting for the next pandemic-causing virus in
bat caves in Asia, saw U.S. government funding for his science slashed back in April. Perhaps most ominously, a U.S.-funded early-warning system called PREDICT, which was launched in
2009 in response to the H5N1 bird flu outbreak, saw its funding quietly lapse in late 2019. Daszak, whose group EcoHealth Alliance received some funding from PREDICT, lamented its loss at
the time, arguing it's much cheaper for governments to stamp out small outbreaks than try to control a massive pandemic. But there are some signs now, with the coronavirus pandemic in
full swing, that funding to these crucial programs is coming back. PREDICT was granted an emergency six-month extension, and a new program, called Stop Spillover, is slated to launch in

October . And while it may be too late to stop this coronavirus in its tracks, scientists say the threat of the
spillover event grows more imminent each year. As our population continues to expand, the interactions between humans and wildlife grow closer
and closer. Cutting down forests and altering habitats push animals out of their own homes and deeper into human communities. Poorly developed hygiene and sanitation systems can

make it more likely for germs to build up. With humans and animals living in such close proximity, bacteria and viruses can easily jump from one species to another. Once people
become infected, the increasing interconnectedness of our world makes the spread of the disease
easier. People and domestic animals are able to traverse the globe in a matter of hours. Illegal trade of exotic animals can move across borders undetected, carrying with them deadly
bacteria and viruses. "Several epidemiological drivers have been identified that make bacteria and viruses from animal populations suitable to emerge in a susceptible population. These
drivers include climate change, industrial development, ecosystem change and social inequality," said Dr. John Brownstein, an epidemiologist, chief innovation officer at Boston Children's
Hospital and contributor to ABC News.

IPBES finds in 2020 that Infrastructure increases disease.

Rampell, C. (2022, June 7). Opinion | we already achieved 'energy independence.' what good did it do us? The Washington Post. Retrieved July
13, 2022, from https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/07/energy-independence-oil-gas-renewables/

Rampant deforestation, uncontrolled expansion of agriculture, intensive farming, mining and

infrastructure development, as well as the exploitation of wild species have created a ‘perfect storm’
for the spillover of diseases from wildlife to people. This often occurs in areas where communities
live that are most vulnerable to infectious diseases.

Pandemics have two impacts. First, recessions

Pandemics worsen global recessions

World Bank 20 World Bank, June 8 2020, The World Bank. “COVID-19 to Plunge Global Economy into Worst Recession since World War
II.”https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press-release/2020/06/08/covid-19-to-plunge-global-economy-into-worst-recession-since-world-war-ii
#:~:text=WASHINGTON%2C%20June%208%2C%202020%20%E2%80%94,shrink%20by%205.2%25%20this%20year.The World Bank Group is one
of the world’s largest sources of funding and knowledge for developing countries. Its five institutions share a commitment to reducing poverty,
increasing shared prosperity, and promoting sustainable development. //CHS EK
The swift and massive shock of the coronavirus pandemic and shutdown measures to contain it have
plunged the global economy into a severe contraction. According to World Bank forecasts, the global
economy will shrink by 5.2% this year. That would represent the deepest recession since the Second World War, with the largest
fraction of economies experiencing declines in per capita output since 1870, the World Bank says in its June 2020 Global Economic Prospects.
Economic activity among advanced economies is anticipated to shrink 7% in 2020 as domestic demand and supply, trade, and finance have been
severely disrupted. Emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) are expected to shrink by 2.5% this year, their first contraction as a

group in at least sixty years. Per capita incomes are expected to decline by 3.6%, which will tip millions of
people into extreme poverty this year. The blow is hitting hardest in countries where the pandemic has
been the most severe and where there is heavy reliance on global trade, tourism, commodity exports,
and external financing. While the magnitude of disruption will vary from region to region, all EMDEs have vulnerabilities that are
magnified by external shocks. Moreover, interruptions in schooling and primary healthcare access are likely to have lasting impacts on human
capital development.

Second, Extinction

Bar-Yam 16 Yaneer Bar-Yam, July 3, 2016. Professor and President, New England Complex System Institute; PhD in Physics,
MIT. “Transition to extinction: Pandemics in a connected world.” July 3. http://necsi.edu/research/social/pandemics/transition. //recut AHS

Watch as one of the more aggressive—brighter red — strains rapidly expands. After a time it goes extinct leaving a black region. Why does it
go extinct? The answer is that it spreads so rapidly that it kills the hosts around it. Without new hosts to infect it then dies out itself. That the
rapidly spreading pathogens die out has important implications for evolutionary research which we have talked about elsewhere [1–7]. In the
research I want to discuss here, what we were interested in is the effect of adding long range transportation [8]. This includes natural means of
dispersal as well as unintentional dispersal by humans, like adding airplane routes, which is being done by real world airlines (Figure 2). When we introduce long
range transportation into the model, the success of more aggressive strains changes. They can use the long range transportation to find new
hosts and escape local extinction. Figure 3 shows that the more transportation routes introduced into the model, the more higher aggressive pathogens

are able to survive and spread. As we add more long range transportation, there is a critical point at which
pathogens become so aggressive that the entire host population dies. The pathogens die at the same
time, but that is not exactly a consolation to the hosts. We call this the phase transition to extinction
(Figure 4). With increasing levels of global transportation, human civilization may be approaching such a
critical threshold. In the paper we wrote in 2006 about the dangers of global transportation for pathogen evolution and pandemics [8],
we mentioned the risk from Ebola. Ebola is a horrendous disease that was present only in isolated villages in Africa. It was far away from the
rest of the world only because of that isolation. Since Africa was developing, it was only a matter of time before it reached population
centers and airports. While the model is about evolution, it is really about which pathogens will be found in a system that is highly
connected, and Ebola can spread in a highly connected world. The traditional approach to public health uses historical evidence analyzed
statistically to assess the potential impacts of a disease. As a result, many were surprised by the spread of Ebola through West Africa in 2014.

As the connectivity of the world increases, past experience is not a good guide to future events. A key
point about the phase transition to extinction is its suddenness. Even a system that seems stable, can
be destabilized by a few more long-range connections, and connectivity is continuing to increase. So how
close are we to the tipping point? We don’t know but it would be good to find out before it happens. While Ebola ravaged three countries in
West Africa, it only resulted in a handful of cases outside that region. One possible reason is that many of the airlines that fly to west Africa
stopped or reduced flights during the epidemic [9]. In the absence of a clear connection, public health authorities who downplayed the
dangers of the epidemic spreading to the West might seem to be vindicated. As with the choice of airlines to stop flying to west Africa, our
analysis didn’t take into consideration how people respond to epidemics. It does tell us what the outcome will be unless we respond fast

enough and well enough to stop the spread of future diseases, which may not be the same as the ones we saw in the past. As the world
becomes more connected, the dangers increase. Are people in western countries safe because of higher quality health
systems? Countries like the U.S. have highly skewed networks of social interactions with some very
highly connected individuals that can be “superspreaders.” The chances of such an individual becoming infected may
be low but events like a mass outbreak pose a much greater risk if they do happen. If a sick food service
worker in an airport infects 100 passengers, or a contagion event happens in mass transportation, an
outbreak could [be] very well prove unstoppable.