251772018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin CLLOOTRAMICA ‘ABlog about the Evolution of Civilizations The Presidential Election of 2016 through the Lens of Follow Peter Cliodynamics mwoie nant Wren nae secon OW todas elites, equity poten violence, structra demographic Subscribe w frwiter 20 | # fracenook 123 | & Jooogier Join 6.943 other subserbers This article was frst published on Evonomics =o eee ULTRA ‘The presidental election which we have experienced, unfortunately, confirms this forecast We S 0 C | E TY oop structural forces that brought us the current politcal crisis have nat gone away. If anything, the negatve trends seem to be accelerating My model tracks a number of factors. Some reflect the developments that have been noticed and extensively discussed: growing income and wealth inequality, stagnating and even declining wellbeing of most Americans, growing politcal fragmentation and governmental dysfunction (see Return of the Oppressed), But most social scientsts and poltical commentators tend to fecus on a particular slice ofthe problem. I's not broadly appreciated that these developments are all interconnected. Our society isa system in which diferent parts affect each other, often in Unexpected ways, PETER TURCHIN ‘ooperttors on earth Follow Peter Turchin on an epic Journey through time. From stono= age assassins fo the oiling cathedrals of the space age, from bloodthirsty god-kings to India’s first vegetarian emperor, discover the secret history of our species— and the evolutionary logic that governed ital Buy iton Amazon.com lar Posts hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidental-slection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-of-clodynamics! na251772018 The State Instability Size = Ratical ideologies Revenues, Expen- Terrorism and Riots ditures, Debt Revolution and Civil War Legitimacy Population Elites Numbers Numbers Age Structure | =~ Composition Urbanization Incomes and Wealth Incomes Conspicuous Consumption Social Optimism Social Cooperation Norms Intraelite Competition/Conflict Furthermore, there is another important development that has been missed by most commentators: the key role of “elite overproduction” in driving waves of politcal violence, both in historical societies and in our own (see Blame Rich, Overeducated Eltes as Our Society Frays). As wrote three years ago, Increasing inequality leads not only to the growth of top fortunes; it also results in greater numbers of wealth-holders. The “t percent” becomes "2 percent.” Or ‘even more. ... from 1983 to 2010 the number of American households worth at east $10 million grew to 350,000 from 66,000. Rich Americans tend to be more politically active than the rest of the population, ... In technical terms, such a situation is known as “elite overproduction." .. Elite overproduction generally leads to more intra-elite competition that gradually undermines the spirit of cooperation, which is followed by ideological polarization and fragmentation of the politcal class. This happens because the more contenders there are, the ‘more of them end up on the losing side. A large class of disgruntled elite- wannabes, often well-educated and highly capable, has been denied access to elite positions. This was writtan when Donald Trump was known only as a real estate mogul ane reality show host well before this presidential election characterized by an unprecedented collapse of socal norms governing civilized discourse—“epic ugliness’ in the words of the New York Times. columnist Frank Brunt hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidental-slection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-of-clodynamics! Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin Lissistsesee The Strange Disappearance of Cooperation in America 200 years ago Alexis de Tocqueville wrote about the exceptional abilly of Americans to cooperate in solving problems that requited concerted collective action. This capacity for cooperation apparently lasted into the post World War Il era, but ‘pumerous indicators suggest that during the last 3-4 decades ithas been unraveling. Cultural Evolution of Pants Pants are the standard item of clothing for people, especially men belonging to the Wester civilization. Why not aki, a robe, a tunic, a sarong, or a toga? ana2smno%e Peter Turchin The Presidential lection of 2016 though the Lens of Glodynamies - Peter Turchin Source ‘The Vielry of Donald Trump changes nothing inthis equation. The “social pump” ereating new aspirants or politcal offices continues to operate at ul strength. In addition to politically biious mult-millonaires, the second important source of such aspirants is US. law schools, hich every year churn twice as many law graduates as there are job openings for them—about 25,000 “surplus” lawyers, many of whom are in debt. It is emblematic thatthe 2016 election pitted a bilionaire against a lawyer. Another visible sign of inereasing intraelite competion and poltical polarization is the fragmentation of politcal partes, The Republican Party isin the process of spitting up into three factions: Traditional Republicans, Tea Party Republicans, and Trump Populists. These divisions run so deep that many Republicans refused to endorse Trump, and some even voted for Clinton. Similar disintegratve forces have also been at work within the Democratic Party, with a jor Ful line dividing Bernie Sanders’ Democratic Socialists from the Establishment Democrats of Obama and Clinton ‘So far inthis analysis | have emphasized elite overproduction, There are two reasons fori First, as | mentioned before, other factors are much better understood, and have been discussed, by social scientists and politcal commentators. Second, cladynamic research on past societies demonstrates that alte overproduction is by far the most important of the three ‘main historical drivers of social instabilty and poltical violence (see Secular Gyoles fortis analysis) But the other two factors in the model, popular immiseration (the stagnation and dectine of living standards) and declining fiscal health ofthe state (resulting from faling state revenues and rising expenses) are alsa important contributors From what | have seen so far, it seems unlikely thatthe Trump administration will succeed in reversing these negative trends. And some of the proposed policies will lkely make them worse For example, drastically reducing taxes on the wealthy Americans will arly strengthen fiscal heath ofthe state, Thus, | see no reason to revise the forveast | made three years ago: "We should expect many years of potical turmoil, peaking in the 2020s. But this isa science-based forecast, nota “prophecy” Its based on solid social science, the workings of which Ihave left “under the hood! inthis article intended for a general audience, But the science is there. I you are interested in looking under the hood, see my recently published book, Ages of Discord, hitpJpeterturcin comvcliodynamicaltne-presidental-slection-of 2016-through-thelens-f-clodynamics! anapsmno%e Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin Because it's a scientific theory, we also need to understand the limitations of what itcan forecast, Ciodynamics is about broad social trends and deep structural causes of these developments. It did not predict that Donald Trump would become the American President in 2016. Butit did predic sing social and politcal instability. And, unless something is done, instailty wll continue to rise. ‘So what's to be done? I find myself in the shoes of Hari Seldon, a fictional character in Isaac Asimov's Foundation, whose science of history (which he called psychohistory) predicted the dectine anc fall of his own society. Should we follow Seldon's lead and establish ‘2 Cliodynamic Foundation somewhere in the remote deserts of Australia? This would be precisely the wrong thing todo. It did't work even in Isaac Asimov's fictional universe. The problem with secrative cabals is that they quickly become selt-serving, and then mire themselves In internecine conflict. Asimov came up with the Second Foundation to watch over the First, But who watches the watchers? In the end it all came down to 8 uniquely powerful and uniquely benevolent super-robot, R, Danes! Olvaw, No, the only way forward is through an open discussion of problems and potential solutions and 1 broad-based collective action to implement them. Its messy and slow, but that's how lasting positive change usually comes about Another important consideration is that in Foundation Seldon’s equations told him that it would be impossible to stop the dectine of the Galactic Empire Trantor must all In real if, thankfully things are different. And tis is another way in which the forecasts of clodyramics Afr trom prophecies of doom. They give us tools not only to understand the problem, but also potentially to fixit But todo i, we need to develop much better science. What we need is a nonpoltical, indeed a fiercely non-partisan, centerfinsitutethink tank that would develop and refine a better scientific Understanding of how we got into this mess; and then translate that science into palicy to help Us get out oft ur society, lke all previous complex societies, is on a rollercoaster. Impersonal social forces bring us to the top; then comes the inevitable plunge. But the descent is not inevitable, Ours is the first society that can perceive how those Torces operate, even if dimly. This means that we can avoid the worst — perhaps by switching to a less harrowing track, perhaps by redesigning the rollercoaster altogether. hitptpeterturcin comvcliodynamicalte-presidental-slection-of 2016-hrough-the-lens-f-clodynamics! ana25172018 Peter Turchin The Presidential lection of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin aososg 36 Comments al looms sovenbers8,2016 at106 pm what needs tobe done? transfer power, from the alts tothe electorate. whatever ther falings, the people have the welfare of themselves and thei children in mind. no small group whether, rich, o connected or scientific, has the same Interest its democracy or extinction, and the smart maney is on extinction. Peter Turchin November 20,2016 «11254 All large-scale complex societies are governed by elites. | use the sociological of: elites are simply the small percentage of people who concentrate socal power in their hands. So if you transfer power from the established eles, it simply ends up in the hands of another small group-the new elites. ‘Skip Wiliams: november 29,2016 at 1201 pm ‘A comolex sociely therefore might require elites we could assume | ‘suppose from this. Would the problem be with elites themselves being cut (for isolated or where elites governance is nat transparent, ...maybe both ’As those who concentrate social power...” Ifyou are ooking at outcomes, «lites would also include influencers and not just those identified by their position or authority or wealth, ‘Tome it seems as society becomes more complex, sites should operate Within a context of consensus where the outcomes can be rationalized hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidental-lection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-of-clodynamics! ona251772018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin within the broader society. There must be some way of continuous, albeit Slubrious ertique that informs not just the governance but objective ‘outcomes, We don't elect all elites; some elites emerge from the discussion. “The more smokeSmirors elite govemance becomes, the more prone to ‘manipulation by both eltes and the broader saciely. The more important it ‘may be to create institutions that keep opening windows. The more Important that it may be to encourage functional ates beyond a wealth and authorty criteria. Things Ike an apolitical civil service (government ops). An independent-minded league of women voters whose purpose isthe ‘exchange of ideas, access tothe vote, and fair and honest elections (free association) Broadcasters that must broadcast inthe public interest (a business requirement if they want to be recognized as news fr instance). It would take a set of institutions and people t fil the role envisioned in the Foundation set of novels. Nichol sovember2e, 2016 at 6 pm Aninteresting idea, and one that hopefully draws from the concept of @ mass Inteligence. By that I mean that a group of people will gonarate @ more correct answer than a single parson via a kind of sampling Aside from small tribal sociaties, | can't say that's ever been done. For the life ‘of me, I can think of a longdasting system for large human groups that couldn't be roughly defined as a sort of monarchy (even the few so-called republics’) with 2 smal elite running the show. The last couple of hundred years have been {an interesting experiment and may yet provide something different. My quess is. that you just end up with rhyming systems with diferent names. Vineyard November20,2016 at 5:56am ‘While | agree that a elte institution tke the Second Foundation might not be the Fight way to solve things in RL, | have to through in one ting. ‘That Asimov imo, made a grave mistake in trying to merge the Foundation and Robot Universe, You can clearly see that it ended up in favoring the later (which is no surprise, since ‘Asimov apparently saw Foundation as a bore: hil:iwwa.asimovonline.corvasimav_FAQ.him! ) which ended up creating his imo. rather messy 80's novel, (The Prequel were half decent, while Edge and Earth were... ughahh....And not only because ofthe tons of contradictions fo the original Foundation Tellogy.) ‘And don't come with the Benford, Bear, Brin Tlogy, were only Brn's book was decent, (| actully really iked Seldon's portrayal i it.) Peter Turchin November 202016 «11150 em | actualy read all of them, inckacing the acklitions othe three Bs (two of whom | recently met) Thanks for the link; didn’t know that Asimov ended up hating the hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidential-lection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-f-clodynamics! ena25172018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 though the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin D. Reale november 20 2016 at 720 an ‘What willis think tank be able to do when Trump and his partisans do not consider scientists very highly and seem to put scientists and the elite into the sam basket? ter Turchin November 22016 at 181 am Presidents come and go, but the underlying dynamics unfold driven by much deeper forces Gone Anderson November 202016 atc? am ‘This is toric, The dagree to which your theories predicted Trump had alroady ‘occurred to me, Ibn Khaldun looks good too-a lot more accurate than the polls and exper! It tow appears, though, thatthe Republicans gamed the election through voter suppression, closing poll, and outright disappearance of possibly millions of ballots. Stl, Trump had a huge and broad base of support, and nobody but you and a 1éth-century Tunisian really has a good predictor going. Peter Turchin November 20,2016 401151 am ‘Thanks, Gene, Ibn Khaldun ules! Nichol sovenber20 2016 at1147 am It sounds premature to jump directly to defining corrective measures. If you just accomplish the abilly to show times and cycles when/where there is increased potential for disorder, that sounds lke enough fo me. Feedback loops can put us in a weird spot once there's abit of energy behind them, although is fun to muse about how eivie cohesion willbe redefined as we swi the drain. It certainly doesn't take much fo got the ho! pollo al worked up. Within the current ‘madlstrom, all Trump supportors are racistsixenophobesluneducated and Hilary {oks are snowflakes and criminal youths supported by Soros and the MSM, but | can't say that demonizing the other team is enough to provide any kind of long lasting social glue for applying force. m hoping forthe kind of belief system or event that provides a kemel to form around, rather like planet formation. Holding your hands just so when making the sign of the Crass was a serious business al one time, Disintegrative phases strike me as things that require integrative steps on the way towards a finer collapse. On the other hand, maybe I's turtles al the way down, Peter Turchin november 20,2016 at11.54 am It sounds premature to jump directly to defining corrective measures.” Yes, hich is why my main focus Is on improving the sclance. That's aso playing to rniy strengths — Iam a scientist, not polical organizer. Ross Hartshorn sovenber20 2016 0235 po | think that one ofthe things which has occurred in climate science, is that the people doing the science got caught up in doing the persuasion as wel (in some cases), and this ended up making them less, not more, infuential. Corrective hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidential-lection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-f-clodynamics! m9251772018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin measures should be developediadvocated by a totally different group of people, with ‘access tothe results ofthe scientists, As soon as scientists are regarded as partisan and advocating for a set of policies, they become less influential Also, to be honest, there's litle chance we willbe able to ameliorate this time through the cyte. But, we can probably record, analyze, and interpret well enough that the next time through the cycle people will consider it important and take early action. This perhaps makes me a pessimist, but ony forthe shor term. Developing the science (which means also developing the gathering of data) is what we ace able todo now, anyway. Peter Turchin sovember 20,2016 at s00 pm Agreed on both poins. The science institute should be flreely nonpolitcal and pursue the best of science. On the second point, realistically, | expect litle positive change before both people and leaders are thoroughly tightened, hich implies susstantal amount of poltical violence, But one sill must do what Nichol November 206 at pm Exactly right (on separating science from downstream responses). I's probably best to view the basic research vs, solutions vs. persuasion walls as a form of ‘usiting procedure, The moment that science becomes advocacy, there's a lessening of is persuasive ably. Social scientists, especially in the more soft lsciplines, seem tobe the most prone to this. It certainly didnt help Gould's legacy and economists, good heavens, what can you say In that case? Besides the odd fudging of the numbers and general alarmism, it didn't help that climate sciontists had every appearance of wanting to change the economy (and worl) in ways that suited them beyond lowering the amount of human caused environmental damage, Inany case, damage to the ecology just sounds tke a bog-standard situation involing an oversupply ofthe non-elite and is woll studied with Dr. Turchin's ‘models. Il corect itself one way or the other, and i's probably best thatthe crisis happens early, The last thing you probably want is 15 blion sola-panel- sing vegetarian humans running up against a carrying capacity imi Peter Turchin November 2i,2016 at 427 pm ‘And I certainly don't want to be one of those vegetarians. Bad for your healt! Richart sovember25 2016 at 1145p Wouldn't happen anyway. Have you seen how fast bithrates are decreasing globally? Vineyard Novemter20,2016 at S¢ pm Another problem is that, hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidential-lection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-f-clodynamics! ana251772018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin hito:tiww.huffingtonpost.com/bil-shiremanvhow-environmentalists- ‘re_b_A8558B1, html atleast in terms of the Climate Change Debatte, both sides have kinda radicalized each other. ‘The Rise of Trump can partially also be explained tke this. hitpswww youtube.comiwatch?v=beSy3r2AQOM hip: iw. vox.comithe-big-ides/2016/10/12/13244444\trump-conservative-igure- defense-pe Yep, Hegel (kinda) precicted Trump. Guillaume Belanger sovember21,2016 «12034 Have you considered a different model entirely where groups of people run their ‘9wn agricultural production, their own factorées, their own banks, and all share ‘equally in the decision making process, inthe invested efforts to make things run, and in the benesits that comes ofthis? Are you ofthe opinion that ths is @ social anarchis's fantasy that has no hope of ever being realised, not even in an approximation? And have you thought of how the elite that holds the power will be made to release it, because, obviously, none that hold power will ever give it away willingly. On another note, has anyone with any real power ever expressed intorest in your work and your ideas about shaping palcy, ors isjust a handful of scholars {and concemed citizens that take pleasure in reading and commenting on your articles and books? I'm honestly curious about all of these things. Don't read me as being negative or rhetorical in my questions. Iind your work very stimulating and interesting, Peter Turchin November 24,2016 «1405 pm For your 1st question: hitpipeterturchin.convciodynamicathe-pipe-dream-of- anareho-populismy! Forthe 2nd: no. It may change, but so far no interest whatsoever. Pingback: Dally Reading #1 | thinkpatriot Roger Cooper november21 2016 at 54pm You stated that politcal fragmentation is increasing. This isa testable statement. Can you supply numerical evidence. | would expect the folowing thing to be ‘curring with increased political fragmentation: 1. More defections on important congressional votes 2, Higher ant-ncumbent votes on primaries/caucuses (or more defeats of incumbents) 3, More defections of voters trom thelr partes 4, Higher votes for 3rd party candidates | don't think that there is a consistent pattern of here of party fragmentation, but I ‘would like to see the data Peter Turchin Novenber 21,2016 «11032 pe In Ages of Discord | show the trajectories of @ numberof proxies for elite fragmentation and itraeite conflict. They include O-Nominate scores, the hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidential-lection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-f-clodynamics! ona251772018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin frequency of flbusters, the proportion of appointments to federal judges nixed, «tc, They all show the same pattern, lturium November 22,2096 at 42am HiPeter, | nave a great respect for your ideas but | have to politely disagree with your hope {or mitigation and transformation, The best model | have seen is the wiw3 from LTG and it puts 2020 and onward in the danger category. The brillant part of their model ‘was to pick somewhat available measurement methods. And to focus on system ddynamies wit feedback. The real question is measuring diminishing returns on resources. | suspect thal your efforts, however heroic, may be susceptible to imprecise data points. But all of this researen will help future scientists, “There isa lot of evidence for collapse, ifone bothers to look. Dmity Orlov is right in saying that we are in mid colapse, Peak ol is certainly having a different effect on prices than expected and the deflationist deserve credit for ther foresight, ‘The LTG folks were right in saying that their model does predict anything when the chaos begins. | beleve we have enlered that period of chaos and that makes modeling dificult f not impossible, Unfortunately, humans are glorified apes not fallen creatures fom the garden of Eden, The complex emotions and desires that have propelled our success will now lead to hubris, confusion, and further sel-inflcted wounds, You are a voice of reason shouting nto the hurricane. A full dissipative system tha is losing its energy, cheap fossil fuels and cheaper debt. Ugo Bardi has the right name for his blog, Cassandra's Legacy. |oved Asimov's books and his ideas! And I apologize for being so sanguine. I ust don't think human society has ever realy experienced an industrial collapse. Ever, ‘There have been small ones, but we have fo look atthe whole system, globally ‘Thank you and | will defintely read your book! Pater Turchin november 22016 at 23pm Al data are imprecise. That's wy science cannot proceed without statistical inference, The Limits to Growth models also rely on data that are not perfectly known. The problem with them is that they don't handle well the social aspects of change. They address a diferent problem — that we might be running out of resources — which admittedly! have lef out of my model. So these approaches are complementary, rather than theoretical alternatives. Roger Cooper november24 2016 at 1016. | think that you are canflaing political polarization with political fragmentation. There has been an increase in political polarization between the parties. This isthe opposite of political fragmentation within the parties. There are certainly factions with each US politcal party, but this rarely affects actualy voting. This quite different {rom the 1960's to 1980's when Southern Democrats acted almost as @ 3rd partyin congress. Pater Turchin November 242016 at 28pm ‘Yes? And the Republican Party splting into three, while the Democratic is spliting into two is not fragmentation? hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidental-slection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-of-clodynamics! son251772018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin Roger Cooper Noventer25 2016 eet am What evidence do you have tat the poltical parties are spiiting? 1 easy to focus on current headlines and forget the disputes of the past. Give some: ‘numeral evidence that party fragmantation is worse now than then. This should be measurable. | suspect thal you wil ind that party fragmentation was greater during the days of the "Conservative Coalition’ (1836-1994) than today. Nichol Novenber2s, 2016 at 1051 “ANI data are imprecise” Speaking of which, hitps:imedium.con/@nntalebisyra-and:the-stalistcs-of-war-910eb1a00bbd Peter Turchin xovember 24,2016 at208pm Incidentally, when analyzing Seshal data | use a statistical lechnique to deal with uncertainty and disagreement very similar tothe one mentioned by Taleb Vineyard November 242016 «720m ‘The LTG Model is basicly that dimishing retums ether for Industry or Agraculture wll load toa sociatical callapse, when vihe costs become unsubstainable. Economists ike Wiliam Nordhaus called it Junk Science, because Jay Forrester and Co. didn't know anything empirical evidence an economic growth or the history of past modeling efforts, because nobody inthe group was an economists. Plus, the living members ofthe LTG study are in a disarray. Meadows stil thnks the model is correct, while Randers uses anather one. (that Meadows thinks is Junk Science.) Happens allthe time, spectally if people misuse certain “models” for thelr own message. (Like Gait Tverberg misusing Prof. Turchin’s book "Secular Cycles" in a pseudo LTS. context to make her message look more credible.) Richara sovender 2s 2018 at 11:50pm Holo Prof, Turchin: ‘Any idea where various other countiesirogions (the main counties of the EU, New Zealand, China, Japan, Russia, etc.) are in their cycles? ladimir Dinets.necenbers,2016 31224 pm “The two parties might seem to be fragmenting, but they are prevented from actually spliting by one major faw of US electoral system, namely the lack of runot? hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidental-slection-o-2016-Hrough-the-lene-of-clodynamics! sa251772018 Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin elections, And removal of that flaw requires a consitutonal amendment, which is Unlikely to be possible in the foreseeable future, OF course, the foreseeable future means only afew weeks nowadays @ Roger Cooper pecemter 2016 at 25pm Itis not completely true thatthe US lacks runoff elections. A number of states Use runof's (or non-partisan primary, including California, Louisiana and Georgia, Furthermore, plurality voting does not guarantee a two-party system, Canada ‘and the United Kingdom have mutiple parties. Canada in particular has had Wild swings ints elections (the Conservative party was reduced to 1 seat in an clacton, with a decade it held a majority) | suggest that fragmentation is less now that is was in the petiad from 1964 to 1994, Dick Burkhart pscenber27 2016 st 16am What Bemie Sanders is trying todo is explicity integrative, to counter the Aisintogration going on: Ha wants (1) a 60 state strategy, and (2) a focus on economic policies that will unite the 99%. Of course this will nt directly help the elites, unlike what Teump is already tying to do. But Bemie’s strategy stars to work then you can predict that alass-dominant {action ofthe etes will join forces with him to challenge the other elites. If successful, his could resolve the crisis, The likely method of resolution would be a ‘massive debt forgiveness to benef the middle class by wiping out much of Wall Street (ust listen to Michael Hudson on US debt = the primary too of the class warfare of the 1% against the 99%), Stephanie Brazell january s,2017 at1217am Dr. Turchin- | read an article that mentioned your name, followed a link to read more about clodynamies, watched the videos, followed your FB page, and here | am- reading al ofthis in fascination. be buying your book soon as well as the sc cone and a few others you mentioned above ® | nave a question though: If understand what ve read so far, itis @ working premise of yours that “elite overproduction’ is possibly one ofthe leading factors in the destabilzation of a society. this hypothesis is actually correc, then the USA is sunk before we bogin to tr to save it, are we not? | say this because (and perhaps 'm wrong...2)| always had this idea that with enough hard work and education, any kid could grow up tobe anything here. And most kids defntvely do not aspire to mediocrity. They want to grow up to be President, Astronauts, NFL football players, lawyers, doctors etc. Of course some ‘want to be teachers/policeremeniwelders...but MOST either set their own bars higher or have parents or teachers who push them. And those higher-aspiration jobs all have the capability of earning wol into the high low 7 figures, so itis easy to imagine the successful ones breaking into the elte. Or maybe pushing their children there. So, doesnt this mean that ultimately in American society, eventually there will be a complete saturation ofthe ete? hip peterturchin.comiciodynamicaltne-presidental-slection-o-2016-Hrough-he-lene-f-clodynamics! anapsmno%e Peter Turchin The Presidential Election of 2016 tough the Lens of Clodynamics - Peter Turchin Altnough | applaud, admire, and deeply appreciate your stated stance of not using the science to advocate for change, the above question begs another: If that (US will at some point have elite saturation, i not for other influences) is a true statement (as ! believe itis) then what would your studies indicate is the way forward ifwe are to escape with as litle harm done as possible? ‘Thank you, again, for your time and! for making all ofthis terribly interesting sttt available to laypeople lke me! 8 Upcoming events: Recent Posts: Peter Turchin Links Contact Peter Name 220 27 JUL JL Submit = hitptpeterturcin comvcliodynamicalte-presidental-slection-of 2016-hrough-the-lens-f-clodynamics! sana