PPGA 503: Measurement and Data Analysis for Policy School of Public Policy & Global Affairs University of British Columbia Course time: Tues & Thurs, 9.30 to 11.00 am. ‘Term 1 ~ 2022/2023, Location: Chemistry C124 Instructor: Kai Ostwald Email: kai.ostwald@ube.ca Office Hours: TBD Telephone: 604-822-4686 ‘Teaching Assistants: ~~ Constant Courtin Email: constant.courtin@ube.ca - Viktoria Zlomanova Email: viktoria zlomanova@ube.ca - Julia Basten Email: jubasten@mail.ube.ca TA Office Hours: TBD Course Description ‘This course is an introduction to the quantitative tools and methods often used in the policy world. Tts emphasis is on developing, the ability to critically consume and clearly communicate quantitative evidence. Itis, in short, a practical course intended to provide a basic foundation for policy practitioners. This means it is not @ replacement for more in-depth methods courses geared towards training researchers for academic publication. ‘The course has three core objectives. First, you will develop the quantitative skills necessary to critically assess claims made on the basis of quantitative (and qualitative) evidence; this includes considering potential issues with sampling, measurement, and analysis, and understanding their implications for causal claims. Since public policy interventions are often intended to affect causal chains, these are foundational skills for any policy and global affairs professional. You will (I hopel), in other words, become a more critical and informed consumer of quantitative analysis. Second, you will develop the ability to choose among and use appropriate approaches and tools when conducting research on policy and global affairs issues. You will, in other words, become a more effective producer of quantitative analysis. Third, you will develop the ability to clearly communicate quantitative evidence in a manner that is accessible to a range of audiences, including by incorporating data visualization where appropriate. There are no formal prerequisites for this course aside from those specified for admission into the MPPGA program. Course Format and Structure Developing competence in quantitative methods is like developing competence in a language: practice is crucial. Given this, class time will be applied and hands-on whenever possible. ‘There is substantial variation in existing familiarity with quantitative methods across the cohort. The pace of the course will reflect this. Make sure, however, to see me, Constant, Viktoria, or Julia if you feel overwhelmed. Do not let yourself fall behind in the course! Remember to make use of the additional support in the form of office hours and the support session.All textbooks have strengths and weaknesses. In earlier years, I opted not to assign a book, but following student feedback, we now use the Agresti book as a primary resource. Older editions of the book are fine, though the latest version includes Stata resources. A softcover version of the book can often be found on Amazon.ca for a reasonable price (an e-book is available as well). In response to feedback, I have also included the Acock book as a recommended text to facilitate entry into Stata, I suggest it for those who feel very uneasy about Stata, but others may feel it is unnecessary or ill-suited to their earning styles. We will also have some readings from a research methods book by Trochim. As itis a very useful book, recommend acquiring a copy for those who foresee themselves working closely with research in the future, but many sections of it are also available online. SD =. hiss 2 comprehensive and accessible book that we use to structure the cour + Alan Acock, A Gentle Introduction to Stata. The book is a bit clunky and much of this material is available online from other sources, but there are advantages to having a text that follows a clear sequence and has everything in one place. ‘+ William Trochim, Research Methods Knowledge Base. This is an outstanding textbook on research methods, which we use to supplement the above books on specific issues like measurement and research design. Note that many parts of the book are available on the website iresearchmethods:net Tshould note that the basic concepts we cover are fairly standard, so you will find many other textbooks and online material to be potentially useful resources. I can recommend the following: * Richard De Veaux and Paul Velleman, Intro Stats. This is a basic book with clear explanation — it is very helpful for simple explanations of basic statistical concepts. + https:/ /stats.idre.ucla.edu/stata/ We will use Stata throughout course, particularly when we begin with regression analysis. As a UBC student in the faculty of arts, you are entitled to a Stata license without additional costs to you (so don’t buy it, atleast not yet!). If you have an older version of Stata already on your computer, you are welcome to use that (though our screens may not always be identical). I strongly prefer that you do not try to use a different program, but please do speak to me if you have a compelling case to make. Assessment “Assessment for this course will be based on five components, as specified below. The material for this course is sequential. As such, please ensure that you engage each session, whether synchronously or asynchronously (if that becomes necessary). This is especially important because your participation helps us gauge your grasp of the material. It will also comprise 10% of your grade. To encourage you to think about data in various domains, you will listen to a podcast (mainly Freakonomics) weekly and write a brief (150-400 word) reflection.* You will also have regular homework assignments (35%). These will be discussed in class and a prompt will be circulated. Late submissions will be penalized at a rate of 10 points per day, unless they are excused. You will have a short midterm (20%) as well as a ‘comprehensive final (25%) that will require you to incorporate material from each section of the class. * Participation 10% * Reflections: 10% * Homework: 35% + Midterm: 20% © Final Exam: 25% 2 Freakonomics is not perfect and can/should be criticized. But it’s accessible and engages many of the core themes ‘we explore in this course. I will assign an episode on some weeks, you will choose you own episode other weeks.‘The material we cover in this course is cumulative in nature. This makes it critical that you do not fall behind, since catching up is difficult in the short 13-week semester. The labs are intended to support your learning. We will also offer a weekly support session once we get further into the semester. Please make use of those resources and reach out to us early if you have any concerns about your grasp of the material or the pace of the course. Covid-19 and our course This course is being held during a complex moment in time. We are fortunate to have the opportunity for face-to-face interaction, but the pandemic is not over. This leaves open the possibility that that we will need to make adjustments to our class format and policies (as well as this syllabus) during the term in response to evolving public health guidance. We are entering this year on the tail of a difficult last two years that imposed extraordinary personal hardships on many. As much as we wish to be fully back to normal, we are not yet, and we may face additional challenges during our time together in this course. I value you as an important part of our community, so I will do all I can to be accommodating of the circumstances and supportive of your learning. But we also face some inevitable constraints due to class size and external policies from various levels, So I ask that you recognize and be patient with the range of challenges that the pandemic continues to impose. Let’s collectively do our best to stay healthy (both physically and mentally), enjoy the course, and emerge better equipped to engage the complex world of public policy and global affairs. Now, on to specific policies. Mask wee ‘As you know, there is currently no mask mandate for indoor spaces at UBC or in British Columbia. Students who wish to wear a mask are welcome to do so, of course. We will follow the guidance of UBC and BC Provincial Health, so there is a possibility that we will be return to masking during the semester. Task, in any case, that all students respond to individual choices and collective policies respectfully. Tine: © Ifyou are sick, ortant that you stay home. Complete a self-assessment for Covid-19 symptoms here: hips Poe thrive health/covidi® /en. We will do everything possible to enstite that staying home when you are symptomatic does not impose substantial additional academic hardships on you. ‘© Ifyou miss class because of illness: © Please contact both your TA and me as soon as you are able to, which will allow us to determine an appropriate plan. © Please continue to do the assigned readings as far as possible, and consult other materials on Canvas, including class slides and (when available) class recording. We have requested ArtsIT to record our main Tue/ ‘Thurs class for the first month (while some students are awaiting entry into Canada); we will determine toward the end of that time whether to record all classes. Regarding the recordings: please DO NOT post or circulate these online, as they are meant exclusively for the members of our course. © Please connect with classmates, who may be able to share notes from class. I would strongly recommend that you form small, informal study groups with your classmates. Ideally those would have a mix of familiarity with quantitative methods in them. © Please attend office hours, which will be held via Zoom, © Of course, in the case of a serious illness, you may be unable to focus on class material ‘We can discuss appropriate steps in that case. © Midterm and Final Exams: As with other meetings, please do not attend the exams if you are feeling unwell. If this situation should arise, please contact me right away. If you arrive for a test and are clearly ill, we will make alternate arrangements with you. It is better to email ahead oftime and not attend. Note that if we have a significant number of illnesses during the term, we may move exams fully online. © If 1am feeling ill: In order to protect you and others, I will not come to class if I am feeling ‘unwell. Assuming I am able to, we will move the class online (via Zoom) until I am able to return to class. In the unlikely event that Iam unable to teach even online for multiple sessions, we will make every reasonable effort to have an alternative instructor until Ican resume teaching. I will keep you updated via Canvas and email. xm concessions 1ce we are a relatively small graduate program, I anticipate being able to work with students individually to accommodate illness and related absences. From my perspective, the key to this working is communication: please inform me as soon as possible if you will miss class time or assignments due to illness, For a relatively small number of absences, I can offer some combination of due date flexibility (for homework assignments) and reweighting. Note that I cannot be flexible with due dates for all assignments (for example, because some are group based). If a previous illness caused a poor midterm exam performance, I can offer to reweight towards the final exam. If illness causes an extended absence, we can work together with the MPPGA program and Arts Advising to find a solution. Additional policies Academic Integrity: The academic enterprise is founded on honesty, civility, and integrity. As members of this enterprise, all students are expected to know, understand, and follow the codes of conduct regarding academic integrity. At the most basic level, this means submitting only original ‘work done by you and acknowledging all sources of information or ideas and attributing them to others as required. This also means you must not cheat, copy, or mislead others about what is your work. Violations of academic integrity (ic, misconduct) lead to the breakdown of the academic enterprise, and therefore serious consequences arise and harsh sanctions are imposed. For example, incidences of plagiarism or cheating may result in a mark of zero on the assignment or exam and more serious consequences may apply if the matter is referred to the President's Advisory Committee on Student Discipline. Careful records are kept in order to monitor and prevent recurrences. A more detailed description of academic integrity, including the University’s policies and procedures, may be found in the Academic Calendar at: hittp:/ /www.calendar.ube.ca/ vancouver /index.cfm?tree=3,54,111,0. Plagiarism, which is intellectual theft, occurs where an individual submits or presents the oral or written work of another person as his or her own. Scholarship quite properly rests upon examining and referring to the thoughts and writings of others. However, when another person's words (ie. phrases, sentences, or paragraphs), ideas, or entire works are used, the author must be acknowledged in the text, in footnotes, in endnotes, or in another accepted form of academic citation. Where direct quotations are made, they must be clearly delineated (for example, within quotation marks or separately indented). Failure to provide proper attribution is plagiarism because it represents someone else's work as one's ‘own. Plagiarism should not occur in submitted drafts or final works. A student who seeks assistance from a tutor or other scholastic aids must ensure that the work submitted is the student's own. Students are responsible for ensuring that any work submitted does not constitute plagiarism. Students who are in any doubt as to what constitutes plagiarism should consult their instructor before handing in any assignments. http:/ /www.calendar.ube.ca /vancouver/ index.cfm?tree=3,54,111,959 ‘Access & Diversity works with the university to create an inclusive living and learning environment in which all students can thrive. The university accommodates students with disabilities who have registered with the Access & Diversity unit: [http:/ /www.students.ube.ca access /dre.cfm]. Students must register with the Disability Resource Centre fo be granted special accommodations for any on- going conditions.Religious Accommodation: The university accommodates students whose religious obligations conflict with attendance, submitting assignments, or completing scheduled tests and examinations. Students should let their instructor know in advance, preferably in the first week of class, if they will require any accommodation on these grounds. Students who plan to be absent for varsity athletics, family obligations, or other similar commitments, cannot assume they will be accommodated, and should discuss their commitments with the instructor before the course drop date. UBC policy on Religious Holidays: ht ‘www.universitycounsel.ubc.ca policies, UBC Statement on Respectful Environment for Students, Faculty and Staff: The University of British Columbia envisions a climate in which students, faculty and staff are provided with the best possible conditions for learning, researching and working, including an environment that is dedicated to excellence, equity and mutual respect. The University of British Columbia strives to realize this vision by establishing employment and educational practices that respect the dignity of individuals and make it possible for everyone to live, work, and study in a positive and supportive environment, free from harmful behaviours such as bullying and harassment. Weekly Schedule ‘The tentative weekly schedule is detailed below. We may accelerate or slow progression, depending on need. Corresponding readings are noted below. The homework due dates are tentative and may be moved forward or back, depending on progress. Week 1 (Sept 6/8): Welcome and course overview; Data Types © Agresti, ch 1 and 2 (for Thursday) Week 2 (Sept 13/16): ‘Measurement; Sampling; Intro to Stata © Trochim, ch 3 (measurement); ch 4 & 5 optional © Acock, ch 1, 2, 3,4 (optional) © NOTE: Thursday's class will be on Zoom, but labs will be in person © HW1 prompt distributed Tuesday; deliver survey Friday Week 3 (Sept 20/22): Descriptive Statistics; Basics of Data Visualization © Agresti, ch 3 © Acoek, ch 5 (optional) © Complete surveys by Monday (11:59 pm) © HW 1 (create dataset) due on Friday (11:59 pm) Week 4 (Sept 27/29): Probability and Distribution © Agresti, ch 4 © Circulate draft of class memo (HW2) on Thursday Week 5 (Oct 4/6): Probability and Distribution cont.; Correlation, Causation, and Research Design © Trochimt, ch 6 (design); skim cht 7 & 8 (experimental and quasi) ‘* Memo feedback due before class Tuesday * HW 2 (final class memo) due on FridayWeek 6 (Oct 11/13): Week 7 (Oct 18/20): Week 8 (Oct 25/27): Week 9 (Nov 1/3): Week 10 (Nov 8}: Week 11 (Nov 15/17): Week 12 (Nov 22/24): Week 13 (Nov 29/Dec 1) Week 14 (Dec 6): Statistical Inferences; Significance Tests © Agresti, ch 5 &6 © Acock, ch 6 & 7 (optional) Presentations (Oct 18) & Midterm (Oct 20) ‘Comparison of Groups; Associations Between Variables © Agresti, ch7 6 8 Introduction to Regression Analysis © Agresti, ch 9 © Acock, ch 8 (optional) * (easy) HW 3 (probability tests) due on Tuesday (Nov 1) Multiple Regression © Agresti, ch 11 © Acock, ch 10 (optional) ‘+ HW4 (basic regression analysis) due on Friday Multiple Regression and Measures of Model Fit © Agresti, ch 13 Regression Extensions © Agresti, ch 14 Review and Looking Forward © Agresti, ch15 (if you'd like!) ‘¢ HWS (analytic memo) due on Tuesday Final Exam (in-class)