Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814

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Groundwater for Sustainable Development

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Research paper

Influence of climate variability on water resource availability in the upper

basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa, Morocco
Amine Tahiri a, *, Fouad Amraoui a, Mohamed Sinan b, Lhoussaine Bouchaou c, d, Faouzi Berrada a,
Khalid Benjmel a
a
Laboratory of Geosciences Applied to Engineering Development (G.A.I.A), Scientific Research Team: Hydrology and Hydro-sciences, Hassan II University-Faculty of
Science Ain Chock. Km 8, Road El-Jadida, BP 5366 Maarif, Casablanca, Morocco
b
Hassania School of Civil Works, Department of Hydraulics, Environment and Climate, Scientific Research Team: Hydrogeology, Water Treatment and Climate Change,
Km7, Road El-Jadida, Casablanca, Morocco
c
Laboratory of Applied Geology and Geo-Environment, Ibn Zohr University, Agadir 80035, Morocco
d
Mohammed VI Polytechnic University (UM6P), International Water Research Institute (IWRI), Ben Guerir 43150, Morocco

H I G H L I G H T S G R A P H I C A L A B S T R A C T

• Identification of climate variability

through a statistical approach.
• The effect of the North Atlantic Oscilla­
tion on precipitation and springs flow.
• The consistency between climate vari­
ability and atmospheric circulation.
• Management of water resources under a
sustainable development perspective.

A R T I C L E I N F O A B S T R A C T

Keywords: This study aims to analyze rainfall data series of four hydrometric stations in a mountainous context in Morocco,
Climate variability over the period 1970–2017. Periods of disruption were identified through statistical approaches based on rupture
Rainfall dynamics detection: the Pettitt test, the Bayesian procedure of Lee and Heghinian, and the Buishand test. The results show
Spring
that the studied series are characterized by several breaks which indicate a variation in the overall trend of the
Water flows dynamics
Statistical analysis
rainfall regime during 1980, 1995, 2000, and around 2010. In addition, a diagnostic of dry and wet years is
Drought carried out by applying the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI); a prolonged period of drought was observed
from 1980 to 2010, with the exception of several short-term rainy events, such as in 1994–1996 and the early
2000s. The variability of spring discharge indicates an evolution consistent with that of rainfall; the largest
decrease in flow rates was recorded during the period from 1980 to 1993. In addition, periods of abrupt increases
were identified, with a maximum recorded in 1994–1996. The phase opposition showed a marked consistency
between the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the SPI, and the variability of spring discharge, which provides an
overview of the influence of atmospheric circulation on the evolution of precipitation and, consequently, on the
availability of water resources in the area.

* Corresponding author.
E-mail addresses: tahiri.amine28@gmail.com, amine-tahiri-etu@etu.univh2c.ma (A. Tahiri).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsd.2022.100814
Received 4 September 2020; Received in revised form 4 July 2022; Accepted 23 July 2022
Available online 13 August 2022
2352-801X/© 2022 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
A. Tahiri et al.
1. Introduction
Recently, climate variability in Morocco has become a major concern
in many debates on development strategies (Schilling et al., 2012;
Hssaisoune et al., 2020). In Morocco, the notion of climate variability
and water resource scarcity is not a recent phenomenon; the rainfall
distribution has been studied since the 1940s through the research
studies conducted by Emberger (1955), where the first rainfall maps of
Morocco were produced. These were supplemented by other authors
(Meko, 1985; Badri et al., 1994) revealing that the climate in Morocco is
irregular with two distinct seasons: (i) a wet season from October to
April, when almost all of the rainy episodes take place, and accounting
for 86–92% of the annual rainfall, and (ii) a dry season from May to
September with only 8–14% of the annual rainfall. Thereafter, several
authors have attempted to analyze the rainfall variability (Safi, 1990;
Bouchaou et al., 1997, 2017; Amraoui et al., 2004; Stour and Agoumi,
2009; Chamchati and Bahir, 2011; Sebbar et al., 2012; Babqiqi, 2014) all
of these works have confirmed that recent decades have been charac­
terized by a net irregularity in the distribution of precipitation and
highlighted a significant decrease in rainfall inputs since 1980, with
significant depletion in the quantity, and deterioration in the quality, of
water resources (Yacoubi, 2001; Sinan et al., 2009; Babqiqi and Mes­
souli, 2013; Sinan and Belhouji, 2016). Furthermore, during the past few
decades, Morocco has also experienced storms with extreme rainfall and
higher volumes of rain in short time periods, resulting in significant
human losses and economic damage (e.g., Ourika Valley in 1995 and
Casablanca, Rabat, in 2002) (Daoudi and Saidi, 2008).
The geographical situation of Morocco in the subtropical subsidence
belt generates a climate mainly regulated by the combination of two
main poles of influence: the Azores anticyclone and the Saharan
depression (Schilling et al., 2012; Agoussine, 2003). This situation be­
tween two climatic belts—one temperate in the north and the other
tropical in the south—leads to a large spatio-temporal variability of the
climate with a rainfall pattern that fluctuates from more than 1000 mm
per year on the northern reliefs to less than 25 mm on the desert plains in
the south (Sebbar et al., 2011; Ait Brahim et al., 2017). Large-scale at­
mospheric circulation patterns further contribute to the understanding
of this variability. One such pattern is the North Atlantic Oscillation
(NAO), which depicts a broad oscillation of the atmospheric mass be­
tween the North Atlantic regions of the subtropical anti cyclone close to
the Azores and the sub-polar low pressure system around Iceland (Cor­
te-Real et al., 1995).Previous studies have shown that the NAO index
significantly influences the rainfall regime in the Mediterranean region
(Hurrell, 1995; Wanner et al., 2001; Knippertz et al., 2003; Driouech,
2010; López-Moreno et al., 2011; Kjellström, 2016). Hence, a judicious
understanding of the consistency between the NAO index, rainfall, and
discharge patterns could improve the understanding of climate vari­
ability in connection with water resource availability.
In climatology, the statistical analysis of time series is a key element
to detect potential changes in hydro-climatic patterns. In Morocco, most
research based on statistical tests for the detection of modifications in
climatic patterns have been conducted at broad national and regional
scales (Sebbar et al., 2011, 2012; Knippertz et al., 2003; Driouech, 2010;
Aoubouazza and Rajel, 2013; Filahi et al., 2015; Bouaich and Benab­
delfadel, 2010; Zhao et al., 2019). Recently, investigations have focused
on the catchment scale, with a special focus on rainfall to address the
various challenges facing the Moroccan water sector, which are widely
different from one basin to another (Zamrane et al., 2016; Seif-Ennasr
et al., 2017; Abahous et al., 2017; Ouatiki et al., 2019).
In the current study, the focus is on the mountainous area of Oum-Er-
Rabiaa basin in order to clearly identify the extent of climate variability
and its impact on the availability of water resources. We note that the
climate variability in this area is poorly understood. Moreover, it is
important to point out that climatic fluctuations are likely to induce
several forms of damage, notably on the socioeconomic level; the
mountainous areas are one of the most sensitive contexts, and slight
2
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814
changes in climate have a serious impact on the availability of water
resources, thus generating a real obstacle for all development strategies
and influencing the vital sectors of activity (agriculture, tourism) (Parish
and Funnell, 1999; Balaghi et al., 2013). Taking into consideration all of
these issues, the link between climate variability, rainfall distribution,
and water resource availability requires consideration, not only as a
natural event that must be endured, but as a phenomenon that needs to
be examined and explained.
In this study, the use of statistical approaches in the analysis of
annual rainfall and spring discharge time series allows recognition of the
variability of rainfall patterns and its impact on the flow fluctuations.
The expected information regarding dry and wet sequences, and their
temporal evolution, could provide a key element for decision makers
and managers for the elaboration of strategies and policies to preserve
and manage water resources of the area.
2. Study area
2.1. General location
The study area corresponds to the upper basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa,
covering an area of about 3400 km2. It is located in the south-western
part of the Middle Atlas Mountains in the province of Khenifra, and
drained by Oum-Er-Rabiaa, the largest river in Morocco. The
geographical coordinates range from the longitudes 5◦ 05′ and 5◦ 50′
west and the latitudes 32◦ 35′ and 33◦ north. (Fig. 1).
The basin is characterized by a complex morphology and structure
due to the existence of tabular and rugged areas; the maximum altitude
reaches 2400 m above sea level (m.a.s.l.) at Hayane Mountain. The
annual rainfall in the Oum-Er-Rabiaa basin varies from 800 mm in the
upstream (Middle Atlas Mountains) to 300 mm in the downstream part,
with an average of 500 mm. Snow cover occurs, on average, on 20 days/
year above an elevation of 800 m.a.s.l. The temperature values vary
between 10 and 50 ◦ C and the potential evaporation is around 2000
mm/year, with a maximum of 300 mm in July and August (Oum-Er-R­
biaa Hydraulic Basin Agency, 2009). The high temperatures and the lack
of precipitation in summer, as well as the high evaporation rates,
highlight the important water needs in this area.
2.2. Hydrogeological characteristics
2.2.1. Surface water
In terms of hydrology, this area is an important water reservoir with
an extensive hydrographic network comprising the Oum-Er-Rabiaa
River and its main tributaries: Srou, Chbouka, and Ouaoumana (Fig. 1).
2.2.2. Groundwater
The upper basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa contains an aquifer system con­
sisting mainly of several springs of varying discharge and quality. The
fresh springs are the most abundant (≈600 m3/s) with a mineralization
rate generally lower than 0.5 g/L; these are mainly exploited for
drinking water supply and irrigation. The second group is of poor quality
(≈17 g/L) with a lower flow rate (≈0.15 m3/s) (Oum-Er-Rbiaa Hy­
draulic Basin Agency, 2009).
2.3. Sub-basins
The study area includes the Oum-Er-Rabiaa River and its tributaries.
The hydrographic network is represented linearly by hydraulic axes cut
into sections to which the elementary watersheds have been associated.
This hydrographic division was carried out using the topographic maps
of Khenifra and Mrirt at a scale of 1:100,000 (Ministry of Equipment,
Transport, Logistics and Water, 1965). In such a manner that all runoff
waters converge towards the main river of Oum-Er-Rabiaa.
The study area is subdivided into four sub-basins as shown in Fig. 1.
The sub-basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa located in the north is the largest with a
A. Tahiri et al.
surface area of about 1400 km2. It intercepts the main river at the hy­
drometric station of Tarhat and its contribution to the total river flow is
estimated at around 46%. The middle part is occupied by the Chbouka
sub-basin, which intercepts the main river at the hydrometric station of
EL-Heri, and has a surface area of about 186 km2. The Srou sub-basin
intercepts the main river at the hydrometric station of Chacha’NMel­
lah, and covers the southern part of the study area with a surface area of
roughly 1066 km2, with an important contribution estimated at about
38% of the total flow. The Ouaoumana, in the far west of the study area,
with a surface area of about 766 km2, intercepts the main river at the
hydrometric station of Taghzout.
3. Meteorological data
The main data employed in this study are rainfall and spring
discharge time series, and the NAO climate index.
Fig. 1. Map showing the location of the Upper Oum-Er-Rabiaa Basin in northwestern Morocco and the drainage network.
3
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814
3.1. Rainfall and spring discharge data
The precipitation and spring discharge data used in this study are
complete data series and the oldest recorded climate variables for the
studied region. For this reason, they are important indicators on which
this hydro-climatic variation study was based. Several additional rea­
sons justify the focus on these two parameters: (i) rainfall is the most
powerful parameter in the analysis of climate variability (Assani, 1999;
Barbé et al., 2002; Halmstad et al., 2012); (ii) rainfall plays a deter­
mining role in the sustainable planning and management of water re­
sources in hydrological basins, particularly in the management of flood
risks and the size of dams, and (iii) because agriculture is the major
activity practiced by the local population and the surface water of
Oum-Er-Rabiaa River is the unique source of irrigation in the area.
A statistical description of the rainfall is shown in Table 1. The
minimum values recorded during the studied period range between 75
and 193 mm while the maximum values fluctuate between 511 and 600
A. Tahiri et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814

Table 1
Statistical description of the annual precipitation series.SD: standard deviation,
CV: coefficient of variation.
Min Max Average SD CV
(mm) (mm) (mm) (mm) (%)

EL-Heri station 75 511 261 87 33

Chacha’N Mellah 96 600 286 108 38
station
Tarhat station 193 562 301 112 37
Taghzout station 87 560 234 121 52
Fig. 3. Distribution of annual average precipitation recorded in the four
monitoring stations and the flows from fresh and salt springs.
mm. The coefficient of variation varies between 33% and 52%, indi­
cating that the studied rainfall series are characterized by a significant
consideration of the relationship between the rainfall regime and the
inter-annual variation.
spring discharge in the upper basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa.
Considering the context outlined above, the present study is based on
3.2. NAO climate index the analysis of sub-period dynamics using a set of indicators that make it
possible, on one hand, to highlight the different evolutionary trends
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index is generally measured as existing within the series and the fluctuations around the central ten­
the difference in atmospheric pressure between the North Atlantic re­ dency, and on the other hand, to separate the impact of extreme events.
gions of the subtropical anticyclone close to the Azores and the sub-polar All of these considerations fully justify the use of the statistical methods
low pressure system around Iceland (Corte-Real et al., 1995). The NAO in this study in order to identify the hydro-climatic fluctuations
index values used in the current study were retrieved from the National throughout statistical distribution assumptions.
Weather Service’s website (https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pr
oducts/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.
table, (Accessed on 02/March/2020). 4.1. Basic principle of break detection

A statistical approach to detect breaks is used in this work to analyze

4. Problematic and method
the chronological precipitation series and identify the periods of their
disruption. A “break” is defined by a change in the probability law of the
Fig. 2 shows graphical representations of the studied rainfall series.
random variables whose successive realizations define the chronological
For all series it is noted that there is a global downward trend in rainfall
precipitation series (Lubes et al., 1994). The statistical approach adop­
and the slopes of the regression lines show negative values ranging from
ted in this work provides a better characterization and identification of
− 1.88 to − 0.52. However, the main question proposed at the beginning
the pivotal sub-episodes of the climate fluctuations. Their adoption in
of this study is: do these slope values observed on the distributions of
the current study is justified beyond their robustness by their successful
rainfall time series meaningfully reflect the climate reality? This ques­
implementation in various previous studies (Aka et al., 1996; Paturel
tion is particularly relevant in a climatic context characterized by abrupt
et al., 1997; Servat et al., 1997; Shanshan et al., 2019; Hanane et al.,
and extreme events, which influence the rainfall regime and the real
2020; Kanani et al., 2020).
evolutionary trends.
Fig. 3 highlights the significant inter-annual variability in rainfall
and spring discharge. The flows are low in the years in which recorded 4.2. Statistical tests
rainfall was less than 250 mm (1982, 1990 and 2012). In addition, it can
be seen that the wet periods are sudden events with very short durations The significance of breaks depends mainly on the tests that have
not exceeding 3–4 years; nevertheless, there is a significant increase in detected the change in series. A break detected by a single test indicates
water flows during these short periods, such as in the wettest year of a lower probability of a break or an event with low amplitude. A
1994/1995. This first assessment therefore requires a careful probable break means that it is detected by at least two statistical tests. A

Fig. 2. Graphical overview of the annual precipitation series over the whole period (1970–2017).(a)El-Heri station,(b) ChachaN’Mellah station, (c) Tarhat station,
(d) Taghzout station.

4
A. Tahiri et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814

certain break means that it is detected by all the tests, thus indicating a
∑k ∑N
high probability of a break or a large amplitude event. Sk = (Xi − X ) for ​ K = 1,&.Nand σ x =
(Xi − X)
(7)
i=1 i=1
N
4.2.1. Pettitt statistical test
Finally, the Buishand U statistic is defined as follows (Buishand,
The Pettitt approach is derived from the Mann–Whitney test. The
1982):
Pettitt test considers a sequence of independent random variables X1, X2,
….XN. The use of the test supposes that for any time t with a value be­ ∑ ( )2
N− 1 Sk
tween 1 and N, a break occurs if the distribution function F1(x) of the U=
K=1 σx
(8)
random variables Xi (i = 1to t) is different from the distribution function N(N + 1)
F2(x) of the random variables Xi (i = t+1 to N) (Pettitt, 1979; Demarée, It should be noted that the test allows the construction of a control
1990; Sutherland et al., 1991; Vannitsem and Demarée, 1991). To ellipse associated with a confidence threshold, consisting of a graphical
identify the point of disturbance, a statistical analysis is performed by complement to Buishand’s U statistic. The limits of the ellipse are based
calculating the index Ut,N which is defined as follows (L’hote et al., on the sum of cumulative deviations from average (Sk).The series Sk
2002): follows a normal distribution with a variance defined as follows (Bois,
∑
t ∑
N 1971, 1986):
Ut,N = Di,j (1)
K(N − K)
i=1 j=t+1
σ2 = (9)
N
⎧
⎨ 1 if X > 0
( ) where N is the length of the observation, and K is the number of ob­
Di, j ​ = ​ sgn ​ (X) = ​ sgn Xi − Xj ​ With ​ sgn(X) = − 1 if X < 0 (2)
⎩
0 if X = 0 servations (K = 1 to N).
It is therefore possible to plot the confidence intervals of these cu­
KN is the variable defined by the maximum absolute values of Ut,N for mulative deviations, for a given confidence level (1 − α2); then, the
t varying from 1 to N and K designates the value of KN taken from the confidence thresholds are defined as follows:
studied series under the null hypothesis. The probability of exceeding √̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅
the value K, according to a two-sided test, is given by the following U(1− α) K(N − K)
2
√̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅̅ (10)
equation (Rosine et al., 2014): N− 1
6K2 In this study, the control ellipse was used to graphically assess the
prob (KN > K) ≅ 2exp − (3)
N3+ N2 importance of deviations (breaks).
Given a certain significance level α, if prob <0.05 the null hypothesis
is rejected, then an estimation of the date of the break is provided by the 4.3. Drought severity
moment t defining the maximum in absolute terms of the Ut,N variable
(Xie et al., 2013): 4.3.1. Dry and wet sub-periods
⃒ ⃒ The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was designed to study
Kt = max⃒Ut,N ⃒ (4) drought or humidity at different time scales for a defined area (Mckee
et al., 1993). It was officially adopted and recommended in 2012 by the
4.2.2. Bayesian procedure of Lee and Heghinian World Meteorological Organization (WMO) as a tool for calculating the
This procedure is applied under the assumption that the studied se­ distribution of dry and wet cycles (World Meteorological Organization,
ries is normally distributed. The method aims to confirm or disprove the 2012). To calculate the SPI index, it is necessary to have monthly rainfall
hypothesis of a change in the mean of the studied series (Lee and data covering a period of at least 20 years (Guttman, 1994). For this
Heghinian, 1977; Bruneau and Rassam, 1983; Chaouche, 1988). The study, the index was calculated according to the following procedure:
basic model of the procedure is as follows: Firstly, the monthly data for the monitored period (1970–2017) were
{ ( ⃒
⃒ 2
) adjusted to a gamma probability distribution, which was then trans­
Xi ≈ N X ( i μ⃒1 , σ i2=) 1, ………, τ, (5) formed into a normal distribution (Mckee et al., 1995; Edwards and
​ Xi ≈ N Xi ⃒μ+δ , σ ​ i = τ+1 , ………, N
Mckee, 1997; Zarei and Eslamian, 2017). To identify the intensity of dry
and wet episodes, it is possible to refer to the classification shown below
where Xi is a random variable with characteristic data of mean μ and
(Table 2), (Mckee et al., 1993). A drought period occurs when the index
variance σ 2 at the moment i. N, τ, and δ represent, respectively, the
has continuously negative values, whereas, wet periods are character­
length of the observation, the position of the break in time, and the
ized by positive values.
amplitude of the change in the mean. Taking into account their a priori
It should be noted that for this study the calculation was made ac­
distributions and supposing that the break time follows a uniform dis­
cording to a 12-month scale; this made it possible to compare the pre­
tribution, the method therefore defines the a posteriori probability dis­
cipitation for 12 consecutive months with that recorded in the same 12
tribution.
consecutive months in all previous years of the available data. The
calculation of the index according to this range made it possible to
4.2.3. Buishand test
The Buishand statistic is derived from an original formulation given
Table 2
by Gardner (1969). The Gardner statistic used for a two-tailed test of the
Climatic trends according to the Standardized Precipita­
break in the mean is written:
tion Index (SPI) values.
∑
N− 1 ( )2
Sk Index Value Characterization
G= Pk (6)
k=1
σx 2.0+ Extremely wet
1.5 to 1.99 Very wet
where Pk designates the probability that the break will occur after K 1.0 to 1.49 Moderately wet
− 0.99 to 0.99 Near normal
observations. The terms Sk and σx represent the partial sum and the
− 1.0 to − 1.49 Moderately dry
standard deviation, defined by the following equations, respectively: − 1.5 to − 1.99 Severely dry
− 2 and less Extremely dry

5
A. Tahiri et al.
associate the information provided by the index with trends and
anomalies in the study area’s spring discharges.
4.3.2. Seasonal variation
The monthly rainfall index method was applied in order to assess the
impact of drought severity on the seasonal rainfall pattern. This method
has the advantage of highlighting the periods of abundance and deficit
in rainfall regime at a monthly scale. The monthly rainfall index is
defined by the following equation(Odekunle, 2005):
Xi − Xm
I = (11)
σ
where Xi is the precipitation recorded in month i, Xm is the inter-
monthly average precipitation values over the considered period, and
σ is the standard deviation (corresponding to the root mean square of the
deviations from the mean value of precipitation recorded during the
considered period).
4.3.3. Hydrological drought
The method allows a distinction to be made between wet and dry
periods through the fluctuations of the water flow regime. The model is
based on the deviations (Ec) occurring between the annual (Qma) and the
inter-annual (Qmi) mean flows. According to the following formula
(Probst, 1989; Haida et al., 1999):
Ec =
(Qma ) − (Qmi )
X (100) (12)
(Qmi )
wet periods are marked by positive values of Ec (Ec > 0), while the
negative values (Ec < 0) indicate dry periods (Probst, 1989).
4.4. Sub-period dynamics
Annual analysis of the rainfall time series available in this basin was
used to place the climate variability in a historical perspective; the
precession of this information and its assessment allows the identifica­
tion of the alternation of dry and wet sub-periods. In order to clearly
define the connection between the rainfall variability and the water
resource availability in the upper basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa, the fluctua­
tion rates of the hydro-climatic variables on both sides of the identified
breaks were calculated using the following equation (Mestre, 2000):
( )
D=
Xj
− 1 (13)
Xi
where D is the variation rate, Xj is the sub-period average after the
break, and Xi is the sub-period average before the break.
The units of Xi and Xj were expressed in (mm) for rainfall data and
(L/s) for spring discharges.
5. Results
5.1. Rainfall dynamics
5.1.1. Pettitt test
The statistical analysis using the Pettitt test allowed the definition of
the rainfall dynamics in the four monitoring stations. The main finding is
that the appearance of the curves varies with sudden and clear changes.
According to the principle of the test, a time series is considered
homogeneous if it does not contain any fluctuation points. In contrast, a
break is defined by a sudden change in the probability distribution at a
given time. This change is marked by positive peaks, pointing to a
maximum value of the Pettitt U statistic and indicating the onset of a
significant change in the rainfall dynamics. Conversely, minimum
values indicate that the series tends to regain the central tendency (Xie
et al., 2013; Hawkins, 2001).In this way, the entire series is segmented
6
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814
into several sub-periods according to the location of the fluctuation
points.
The indications of the different change points are illustrated in Fig. 4.
It can be clearly seen that the years 1980, 1993/1994, 2001, and 2010
triggered the beginning of a change in the rainfall dynamics. It can also
be noted that the most significant breaks are those produced in 1980 and
the early 2000s where the values of Pettitt’s U statistic reached
U=Umax, implying a significant decrease in the rainfall pattern. On the
other hand, it is clearly noted that the ruptures occurred in the mid-
1990s and around 2010 are pursued by negative values, below the
zero U line, indicating that the rainfall series were able to reach the
central trend as a result of an intensification of rainfall in a relatively
short period of time (storm events) which made it possible to compen­
sate the deviation with respect to the distribution function (Pettitt,
1979).
5.1.2. Bayesian procedure of Lee and Heghinian
Fig. 5 shows the results of the application of the Lee and Heghinian
method. The years of break are defined by calculating the break prob­
abilities throughout the monitoring period. It appears that the density of
probability follows a similar trend and that the breaks occur in a specific
dates in the studied stations. For the results presented in Fig. 5, the
maximum mode of the distribution of the probability density is used as
the breakpoint estimate (Booth and Smith, 1982; Szentimrey, 1996).
Graphically, it can be noted that the values classes are potentially
concentrated in the early 1980s and around 2002 and 2010 indicating a
significant change in the means compared to the stationary model of the
studied series (Lee and Heghinian, 1977). It can also be noted that a
slight change in the probability density is shown in the mid-1990s in
both El-Heri and Tarhat stations implying the occurrence of an event of
short duration which allowed the series to balance the average and
restore the stationary pattern.
5.1.3. Buishand test
The application of the Buishand test with the positioning of a control
ellipse allowed the monitoring of the rainfall regime variability and
definition of the years of break. For this test, the break periods corre­
spond to the positive peaks, indicating a trend reversal in the precipi­
tation time series. According to the graphical representation (Fig. 6), it is
noted that, for all the studied stations, the breaks with the most signif­
icant confidence level are those produced in the early 1980s and 2000s,
and around 2010, with a confidence threshold ranging from 90% to
95%. On the other hand, it is clear that the event occurring in the mid-
1990s can be considered a break, but at a lower confidence level than the
other breaks. This could be explained by the fact that this break corre­
sponds to an event of very short duration but which nonetheless suffi­
ciently influenced the global trend of the studied series (Bois, 1971,
1986; Alexandersson, 1986).
Throughout the monitoring period of 1970–2017, the curves pre­
senting the results of the statistical tests have the same shape and syn­
chronization, which means that the different methods used in this work
indicate similar evolutional trends across the upper basin of Oum-Er-
Rabiaa. Fig. 7 illustrates the distribution of the point clouds for the
different breaks, which helps to clearly identify the years of major
breaks. According to this graphical representation, the four break years
of 1980, 1995, 2000, and 2010 were most clearly detected by the sta­
tistical tests.
5.2. Drought severity
5.2.1. Dry and wet sub-periods
The calculation of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)
allowed the identification of the distribution of dry and wet sub-periods
in the study area (Fig. 8), as well as the frequencies of dry and wet years
for the whole monitoring period (Fig. 9). The main findings can be
summarized as follows: The first sub-period can be considered a normal
A. Tahiri et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814

Fig. 4. Pettitt test.(a)El-Heri station,(b) Chacha’NMellah station, (c) Tarhat station, (d) Taghzout station.

Fig. 5. Lee and Heghinian test. (a)El-Heri station,(b) Chacha’NMellah station, (c) Tarhat station, (d) Taghzout station.

period starting in 1970 with an SPI index balanced between negative
and positive values; this equilibrium phase was interrupted around 1976
with a slight upward trend in rainfall. Subsequently, a prolonged period
of drought was observed in the study area from 1980 to 2010, with the
exception of two short-term events: the first was extremely rainy (SPI =
4.3), occurring between 1994 and 1996 (in the midst of the drought
crisis), while the second took place in the early 2000s. The index vari­
ation also revealed a third period from 2010 to 2012 that can be
considered a wet period (SPI = 2.5). From 2012 onwards, the observed
trend indicates that a moderately dry period with low rainfall intensity
took place.
5.2.2. Seasonal variation
In this section, an assessment of the impact of drought severity on the
seasonal rainfall pattern was carried out by studying the monthly rain­
fall variability. It should be noted that the two decades of 1970–1980
and 1980–1990 were chosen as a reference periods for this seasonal
variation analysis. This choice was reinforced by the results obtained in
the present study, in particular, through the subdivision based on the
Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), which revealed that the first

7
A. Tahiri et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814

Fig. 6. Buishand test.(a)El-Heri station,(b) Chacha’NMellah station, (c) Tarhat station, (d) Taghzout station.

Fig. 9. Frequency of dry and wet years over the monitoring

Fig. 7. Summary of the break periods according to the statistical test results. period (1970–2017).

period (1970–1980) corresponds to a balanced period while the second

(1980–1990) corresponds to the occurrence of a long drought phase.
The graphical representations (Fig. 10) make it possible to define the
seasonal pattern of the two periods considered as references. It should be
noted that a rainy season is defined by the position of the curve within
the range of positive values, while a dry season is defined by the position
of the curve in the range of negative values. It emerges from the
graphical representations that the 1970–1980 decade (before the
occurrence of the drought crisis) is characterized, on one hand, by an
early start of the rainy season around September and, on the other hand,
by a late end of this season around April (with about seven months of
rain). In contrast, during the second phase (1980–1990), it can be clearly
noted that the length of the rainy season was significantly reduced with
a belated beginning in October and an early end around the beginning of
March (about four months).

Fig. 8. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) for the four stations studied. 5.2.3. Hydrological drought
The inter-annual flows variations were used to characterize the hy­
drological drought over the monitoring period of 1970–2017. According
to the graphical representation (Fig. 11), it can be noted that for both

8
A. Tahiri et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814

Fig. 11. Springs discharges variability index.(a) Fresh springs, (b) Salt springs.

5.3. Rainfall and water flow matching

The correlation between rainfall and spring discharge from fresh and
salt springs in the upper basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa allowed an assessment
of the adequacy of the model in relation to the observed data. The co­
efficient of determination for both springs was about 0.76. However,
From Fig. 12, it can be noted that the scatter plot is not adjusted
perfectly around the regression line; this could be explained by the fact
that the hydrological response of the basin is influenced by other factors.
This could include the climatic conditions of the area, such as inputs due
to snow melt providing support to the spring discharges, and therefore
the recorded flows do not fully correspond to the rainfall. In addition, it
could be caused by the underground geomorphology of the basin, in
particular, the presence of Triassic clay formations (with low porosity)
in juxtaposition with Liassic carbonate formations, which minimize the
ability of the basin to deliver water.

Fig. 10. Seasonal pattern during the sub-periods (1970–1980) and

(1980–1990).(a)El-Heri station; (b) Chacha’NMellah station; (c) Tarhat station;
(d) Taghzout station.

springs (fresh and salt), the water flow dynamics varied similarly: the
period from 1980 to 1993 recorded the largest decrease in the flow
compared to the inter-annual average with a minimum recorded around
1990–1991. The results also show periods of abrupt increases in the flow
rates, with a maximum recorded in 1994–1995. Overall, the hydrolog­
ical drought dynamics in this basin follow almost the same trends as
those identified in the rainfall series using the SPI index.
Nevertheless, it should be noted that during some periods the hy­
drological response of these two groups of springs showed slight varia­
tions, such as in 2003. This could be explained by the fact that these two
groups of springs are not exploited with the same intensity and that the
effect of drought is sometimes combined with the overexploitation of
these water bodies. In addition, this slight difference could also be
related to the variation in groundwater flow trajectories from the im­
mediate or distant areas feeding these outlets.

Fig. 12. Correlation between the average annual precipitation recorded in the
upper basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa, and water flows.(a) Fresh springs discharges, (b)
Salt springs discharges.

9
A. Tahiri et al. Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814

Table 3
Rainfall regime variation.
Sub-periods

1970–1980 1980–1994 1994–1996 1996–2010 2010–2012 2012–2017

El Heri Min (mm) 261 75 360 154 193 121

Station Max (mm) 374 320 511 360 287 287
Average (mm) 332 200 388 229 255 199
Variation rate (%) – -40% þ 94% -41% þ12% -22%
Chacha’N Mellah station Min (mm) 221 96 221 121 206 112
Max (mm) 403 265 600 381 320 251
Average (mm) 305 173 505 236 245 177
Variation rate (%) – -43% þ190% ¡53% þ4% -28%
Tarhat station Min (mm) 281 195 398 147 221 201
Max (mm) 387 361 561 398 320 287
Average (mm) 348 246 471 244 264 227
Variation rate (%) – ¡29% þ91% ¡48% þ8% ¡14%
Taghzout station Min (mm) 212 87 411 121 211 121
Max (mm) 414 245 560 321 312 268
Average (mm) 304 156 366 247 260 197
Variation rate (%) – -49% þ 135% -32% þ 5% -24%

Table 4
Flow rates variation.
Sub-periods

1970–1980 1980–1994 1994–1996 1996–2010 2010–2012 2012–2017

Spring 1 Min (L/s) 282 190 335 253 262 242

Max (L/s) 420 391 580 331 420 310
Average (L/s) 316 198 323 254 286 223
Variation rate (%) – -37% þ63% -21% þ3% -22%
Spring 2 Min (L/s) 29 21 81 40 32 32
Max (L/s) 98 95 197 180 180 46
Average (L/s) 65 45 71 49 53 40
Variation rate (%) – -30% þ58% -31% þ8% -23%

5.4. Sub-Period dynamics
A summary of the different subdivisions obtained for all the studied
stations, as well as the variations in the rainfall and the water flow rates
are summarized in Tables 3 and 4. These tables show that the averages
established before and after the break for each sub-period indicate a
change in the rainfall and the hydrological regime. Furthermore, it can
be noted that the deficit is large and sometimes exceeds 50%, thus
initiating the beginning of a global change in the climate regime. In
addition, it can be clearly noted that the rainfall variability was reflected
in the flow rates following the same trend and that the flow deficits
reached a threshold of 45%. On the other hand, the extreme events also
presented another aspect of climate variability, as highlighted
throughout this study; these short duration events were characterized by
an intensification of rainfall in a relatively short period of time, with a
pronounced variation in the rainfall dynamics exceeding 100%, and
resulting in abundant runoffs with nearly the same level of intensity.
6. Discussion
The results obtained in this study show that the precipitation and the
runoff patterns experienced different periods of disturbance, indicating
a change in the climate dynamics. Furthermore, the analysis of drought
severity showed that the area has experienced a long period of drought
during recent decades. The analysis at a seasonal scale also showed that,
during these drought periods, the rainy season was reduced consider­
ably. Previous studies carried out in other areas in Morocco seem to
indicate similar fluctuations in the hydro-climatic regime as those
identified in this study. The studies carried out in the northern part of
the country highlighted several periods of disruption, particularly in
1984 (Sebbar et al., 2011). This break period was accompanied by a
rainfall deficit varying between 15% and 25% in the southern Atlantic
part and around 30% in the eastern region. In addition, in the Fes-Saiss
plain and the Liasic karstic aquifer, the long period of drought initiated
in 1980 resulted in a significant decrease in the flow rates (Amraoui
et al., 2004; Bouchaou et al., 1997). On the other hand, the phase be­
tween 1994 and 1996 was extremely wet and reflects the same level of
intensity as the one identified in the eastern Atlas Mountains and in the
Tizin’Isly area (Daoudi and Saidi, 2008; Driouech, 2010; Ouatiki et al.,
2019). These indications show a clear link, implying that the study area
is part of a global climatic dynamic previously observed in other areas of
Morocco; and that the rainfall breaks and the flow regime fluctuations
highlighted in this study were derived from an irregular climatic dy­
namic where climate change is tending towards aridity. This finding is
also reinforced by a comparison with previous studies on a regional
scale, notably with some studies conducted in neighboring countries. In
Algeria, a previous study showed a decrease in the annual rainfall
exceeding 36% in the Mascara region and in the extreme west around
1980 (Meddi and Meddi, 2009). Research studies conducted in the
north-western part of Algeria demonstrated that since the 1980s, aquifer
output has decreased by more than 50% (Khaldi, 2005; Nekkache and
Megnounif, 2013). From the same perspective, a study carried out in
central Tunisia revealed a significant decrease, with a break in the
annual rainfall series distribution between 1979 and 1985 (Kingumbi
et al., 2000).
The aforementioned findings require linking these results with
regional phenomena at a broad scale. One such pattern is the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). The choice of this index is justified by the
geographical position of Morocco, which is mainly located in the sub­
tropical subsidence belt with a climate regime largely regulated by the
influence of the Azores anticyclone (Agoussine, 2003; Knippertz et al.,
2003).
Fig. 13 shows the opposing phases of the NAO index, the SPI index,
and the spring discharge variability during the monitoring period

10
A. Tahiri et al.
Fig. 13. Phase opposition during the period 1970–2017 (a) between the North
Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and the SPI, (b) between the NAO index and
discharge variability of fresh springs, and (c) between the NAO index and
discharge variability of saline springs.
1970–2017. From the graphical representation, it appears that the
evolutionary trends are clearly identifiable; from the 1980s onwards, a
strongly positive phase of the NAO index was established, with a clear
succession of several years in which the index was positive, indicating a
persistence of the Azores anticyclone and elevated values of pressure on
the Atlantic Ocean around the Azores (Corte-Real et al., 1995; Hurrell,
1995). This led to a northward deviation of the atmospheric circulation
and consequently contributed to the onset of a long period of drought in
the study area (Fig. 13a). In contrast, the most negative values of the
NAO index reflect rainy climatic conditions with sometimes extreme
events and abundant runoffs, as was the case for the 1994–1996 phase
(Fig. 13 b,c). This could be attributed to the fact that the attenuation of
the pressure gradient allows the transition of the Atlantic disturbances
towards the south, which is advantageous for the rainfall in the study
area. Our finding therefore leads to the hypothesis that the breaks and
the sub-period dynamics detected are mainly due to the regional at­
mospheric circulation, which, in turn, is largely attributed to the
changes in the NAO phases. This implies that mountainous regions, and
their water balance, are not immune to climate variability, contrary to
what has been previously considered.
7. Conclusions
The data used in this work was drawn from four hydrometric
monitoring stations for a long period ranging from 1970 to 2017. The
study identified the main fluctuations in rainfall and spring discharge
data, and helped to trace their evolutionary trends. The main conclu­
sions can be outlined as follows:
11
Groundwater for Sustainable Development 19 (2022) 100814
• The statistical methods (Pettitt, Buishand, and Lee and Heghinian)
clearly identified the climate instability at the four monitoring sta­
tions with four major breaks in 1980, 1995, 2000, and 2010.
• The use of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) allowed char­
acterization of the extent of dry and wet periods, as well as their
intensity. A prolonged period of drought was observed in the study
area from 1980 to 2010, with the exception of several short-term
rainy events, such as in the 1994–1996 phase and the early 2000s.
• The monthly rainfall index method allowed assessment of the impact
of drought severity on the seasonal rainfall pattern. It was noted that
the length of the rainy season was significantly reduced, with a
belated beginning in October and an early end around the beginning
of March.
• The variation of spring discharge highlighted a relevant finding,
namely, that the analysis of climate fluctuations based on the water
flows indicates a trend and evolution consistent with those of rain­
fall. The period from 1980 to 1993 recorded the largest decrease in
the flow, and results also revealed periods of abrupt increases in the
flow rates, with a maximum recorded in 1994–1996.
• The phase opposition between the SPI, the NAO index, and the spring
discharge variability during the period 1970–2017 allowed the
determination of the influence of the atmospheric circulation on the
evolution of precipitation and the availability of water resources in
the area.
Overall, these results indicate that water resource availability in the
upper basin of Oum-Er-Rabiaa is mainly related to precipitation, which
is in turn, significantly influenced by climate variability. Consequently,
it is strongly recommended to take into consideration several measures
to adapt the water sector in this basin to this climate variability. Firstly,
to cope with the periods of dryness, it is necessary to develop more ef­
forts to save water used in irrigation, which uses 80% of the annual
mobilized water resources in the area (e.g., by developing the artificial
recharge of the over exploited groundwater). Secondly, it would be of
interest to realize projects to improve protection against extreme and
unforeseen floods.
Funding
This work was partially funded by the National Centre for Scientific
and Technical Research (data acquisition and field missions). REF/
CNRST-51UH2C2017.
Declaration of competing interest
The authors declare that they have no known competing financial
interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence
the work reported in this paper.
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to express their sincere gratitude to the Di­
rector of the Hydraulic Basin Agency of Oum-Er-Rabiaa for his permis­
sion to access to data archive and documentations.
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