Q-01/PRP/SPR’19 26/02/2019 Marks: 20 / Time: 15 min

Name: ____________________________________________ Roll No: _________________ Section: ________

1. [Marks 5] All possible outcomes of an experiment are squares of the elements in the set {−1,1,3 } .
In the following cases write the value of the probability if it is well-defined, otherwise write the
reason (one word or one phrase):

1) P[9]=¿ 9 is not a valid event, {9} is.

2
2) P[ { 1 } ]=¿ Square of a set (or event) is not defined.

2
3) P[ { P[ { 1,9 } ] } ]=P [ {1 } ] =
3

4) P[ P ( { 1,9 } ) ]=¿ P ( { 1,9 } ) is invalid notation. Even if it was P[ { 1,9 } ] which would be P[1] and 1
is not a valid event.

[ ]
5) P { P [ { 1 } ] } =P {[ 23 }] {23 }
, is an invalid event.

2. [Marks 4] The sample space, S of a random experiment is shown. The outcomes of the experiment
are not equally likely. There are 3 kinds of outcomes -- those marked with a ( * ) have a probability
α to occur, the ones marked as ( + ) have a probability β and the ones marked with a ( $ ) have
probability μ. There are three events, A (marked as a circle), B (marked as a dotted rectangle) and
C (marked as a triangle). Find:

Pr ( S ) =9 α + 6 β+6 μ=1
Pr ( A )=α + β+ μ
α + β+ μ
Pr (B∨C)=
2 α+ β+ μ

Knowing that B has occurred, are A and C independent?

If Pr ( A ∩C|B )=Pr ( A|B ) . Pr ⁡(C∨B) then we can say they are independent. Let us find out.
Pr ( A ∩C|B )=Pr ( ∅|B ) =0
Pr ⁡( A ∩ B)
Pr ( A|B )= =0
Pr ⁡(B)
α+β +μ
Pr ( C|B )= ≥0
3 α +3 β +2 μ
Thus A and C are independent conditioned on B.

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 Q-01/PRP/SPR’19 26/02/2019 Marks: 20 / Time: 15 min
Name: ____________________________________________ Roll No: _________________ Section: ________

3. [Marks 4] A tree for medical test kit diagnosis for some disease is as shown below. The event S
represents the case when a patient is sick (i.e., suffering from that disease). T+ is the event that the
medical test kit tested positive for the disease. T- when the kit tested negative for the disease.
Some probability values are listed on the tree. Find the 5 missing probability values and put them
in the rectangular boxes. The values listed on right are leaf probabilities.

4. [1+1+1+1+1+2+3=10 Marks] A coin is tossed until a Heads is obtained.

i. What is the experiment?
Tossing a coin OR Tossing a coin until Heads is obtained.
ii. What is the terminating condition?
Obtaining the first Heads in coin tossing.

iii. What are the outcomes of a trial?

{H , T }
iv. Write S.
S={H ,TH , TTH , TTTH , … }
v. What is the nature of S?
Countably Infinite

vi. Create a partition, C and highlight the rationale for it.

C={ { H } , { TH } , {TTH } , …}
Rationale: Number of trials to get first Heads

vii. The P [ Heads∈one toss ] = p. Find the probability that a heads occur in k -th toss.
k−1
P [ Heads occur ∈k toss ] =( 1− p ) .p

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