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Spe 945228 G
Spe 945228 G
Petroleum Economics
Analysis of Decline Curves
By J. J. ARPs, * MEMBER A.I.M.E.
(Houston Meeting. May 1944)
show the possible ultimate production as certain minerals by states or nations. Such
a function of the initial production rate. a curve will rise from zero value at the
W. W. Cutler,S in 1924, pointed out, after time of first production to a maximum
an intensive investigation of a large and then slowly decline, presumably to
number of oil-field decline curves, that zero value. The possibilities of various
the assumption of constant percentage mathematical relationships and different
decline and a straight-line relationship methods of curve fitting are described in
on semilog paper generally gave results this paper. The best results were obtained
that were too conservative in the final with a curve of the type:
of this relationship will lead to a rate-time In most actual pools, however, the
equation of the general form: aforementioned idealized conditions do
Dot 1- - not occur. Pressures usually are not
P = P.eIOo(m I) proportional to the remaining oil, but seem
to decline at a gradually slower rate as
It may be noted that this relationship the amount of remaining oil diminishes.
will not straighten out on semilog or At the same time the productivity indexes
log-log paper, but shows the interesting are generally not constant, but show a
characteristic of straightening out when tendency to decline as the reservoir is
a second column and the ratio of the two Average loss ratio July 1940 to January 1944. 86.8.
(a = loss ratio) in a third. If this loss ·
n ccI me IOO
percentage 86.8 = LIS per cent.
ratio is constant or nearly constant, the Extrapolation until January 1947 by means of
curve can be assumed to be of the expo- average loss ratio. 86.8.
nential type. The mathematical basis for followed in this extrapolation is self-
this will be discussed hereafter. explanatory; the same method that was
It will often be found, if time intervals used to arrive at the loss ratio from the
of one month are used and when the decline known production rates in the upper half
percentage is small, that' the general trend of the tabulation is used in reverse to find
is disturbed considerably by irregularities the unknown future production rates from
in the monthly figures, and in such cases the constant loss-ratio values.
it is better to take the production rates
further apart. As an example, Table I Mathematical A nalysis 16
shows the data from a lease in the Cutbank Rate-time Relationship.-The rate-time
field, Montana, where the monthly produc- curve for the case of exponential decline
tion rates are taken at six-month intervals. has a constant loss ratio, as shown in the
Since the loss ratio is defined as the preceding section, which leads to the follow-
production rate per unit of time divided ing differential equation (see list of symbols
by. the first derivative of the rate-time on page 20):
curve, it is necessary in this case to intro-
P
duce a 'factor 6 in the last column to correct dPjdt = -a [I}
the drop in production rate during the six
months interval back to a monthly basis. IIIwhich a is a positive constant. After
The loss ratios in the fifth column of the integration of this equation, and after
table appear to be approximately constant. elimination of the integration-constant by
234 ANALYSIS OF DECLINE CURVES
Graphical Extrapolation and Practical this strip for various values of the decline
Shortcuts percentage D, it is possible to carry the
As pointed out before, the rate-time multiplication out on the same graph paper
curve for exponential decline will show used for the curves, and read the answer
a straight-line relationship on semilog on its vertical log scale. Figs. I and 2 show
paper and can, therefore, be extrapolated how such a calculator, designed for deter-
by continuing the straight line. mination of both decline percentage and
J. J. ARPS 235
CAlCUL-ATOf~
nll- Exponential
Decline
mJ
f~~ure
·ProductiQ~-
tOO,OI!,g - r'" ______y_.,..,......
,..~,..,.',...,~"":r..'"""""'.L_' __ ...........
~'= ~~<>1I .:;
SO,ooo - f---"-~-"- - . - - - - , - - - ~
70,00" _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ .. _ _ _ _ _ _ __
$ t,ooo --11""---
~ - ~~"'I"<
-'1"''''< ~~ : /
.-g -vj ~IQ ~
9 <> ~~
.., ',000___ ---1+'10--- • :; / ----,---",- - , -
~ :~: - ;- V "" ~~ __ ~~ j / ---------+----t
II 700 -j--------Fr~==::i!!~~;;;;::-g 0 -,---,----+----i
D. Iloo--lf--------\ MonthllJ ~ ,-~Icl: / ' 0,5-t---------+---..-
500-::11--·-------\ Dec:line ~ ~ P"..... t----------- - - -
400_:t_ _ _ _ _ _ -L!:i=::4-='1o=O==::J-I---_~?~ ............
"'0,30
r-------..- - -
300-_,______________~I--___________~ar__---_------4A~----
100,000
--I--- . 90,;000
f-. 80,000
------~.------ '---.<~-----I-~-----+--..-,'F, 70.000
---~-.'''~" -.~~.~ ,~--,,---I-, ___ ~~ __ -+-_,_____ .~-+ __ '.- -::
-
;o~OOq
';):~f~Q.
II
- 40,00':'
~
<I) - lO}OCeJ
..
·S
; " t~,Ooo
.;:
g.-
10,aGO
9,0'00
s,uoo
'1,OOQ
f.-
r-----------+----------~ -- I- 6,000
~--------4--,-------- SIO Gb
E 4,~OO 0
~,coo '"
-;
.....
~
CO
- 1.,000
::..
1,000
~uo
S6t,
-1,00
'tOO
0.'-
J. J. ARPS 237
future production, is used. The monthly m.atched with this production rate of
decline percentage was read off from scale 190 bbl. per month and the future recovt:ry
Be in :Fig. 1 as 4 per cent and the constant is read off opposite arrow E as 4750 ban:els.
.
~"Q.OO
<)0,00
.:-:
..:
1
tU,OIll
"'0.00
40,#0\)
~O.OO 0
.-
0-:
40,011 0-:
" ...0-: 'J
t~
.,..0-1
.. 't ~:;
tO,OO
oe
.~
~
rJ1'. t
- - --- - -- .... +:.,, , ,
I
,
I
, ,
,
, , ,
c: ',00 0-: .:. OrnU",
... I
! .5 ~,..~
---- - -- ~~
1\1-\
~.00i'J 0_ - -t--
I
1_ ",00 o~ I '-
I
I
l.
~
0-'
",000
,
I
,
I '-
'-
'-
~~
: :'1,000 - I
r' '.
£
.... "\.~
,,
j
'- ,
:. 't,OO 0-:
,
,," ~i ,
(i '- I '-
~ --
li
~
I '- ,,
I '- ,,
I :c~ ~.
.. ....··...,
"'0 t.O~ 0
, '"J
I T, ,
! ::• , , I"
"
• , '- , I
r-_
, ,, ,,•
II '"
,,- I
4. ...~-
..• .. _, - - - ,,»\
I
-- -- .. --~
I"
--~;T
<>-
m~
to
,0 ~
0
IUS 195& IU7 .9311 I'~~ 19,,0 1541 194't "4~ 1944 1945 1S4i iS4? I!i<'>l)
t:; Tim.e
FIG. 3.-GRAPHICAL EXTRAPOLATION OF HYPERBOLIC RATE-T~!lE CURVE ON SEWLOG PAPER.
ratios ue constant or n~arly um::;tant I2 ,1i> to find the proper'ld.lues. The loss ratios
As an e;;:a;~lple, Table 2 shows the loss ratio thus ol.,tained indicated a fairly uniform
for production data frum a lease producing arithmetic series and consequently the
from the Arbuckle lime in Kansas. This differenCes between successive loss ratio
lease had been producing under conditions values b are reasonably constant. The
of capacity production since the completion average is 0.508.
of dtilling and shows a rate·time curve on These differences represent the d.:riva-
sel.llilog f!::tper, curvIng steadily to the tives of the loss ratios with respect to
right (Fig. 3). To eliminate ineg,.llarities, time; and since six·moIith intervals are
it waJ nece;sary to smooth out the origh,al used, a cOirectioll factor of 76 was intro-
data (see curve J B on Fig, 3). The p,.'oduc- duced to find the proper values of b. The
the production rate has dropped to lOO bbl. tion construction for the hyperbolic-type
per month. decline curve on semilog paper as illustrated
Three-point Rule.-The hyperbolic de- hy Fig. 3 and discussed hereafter.
dine curve shows another interesting
Graphical Extrapolation .~reth(ds
feature, which can sometimes be used to
advrmtage. It can be expressed as: "For Log-log Paper.--As pointed out before,
;my tviO points on a hyperbolic rate-time both the rate-time and rate·-cumulative
\;urve, of which the production rates are in curves for hyperbolic decline can be repre~,
'l given ratio, the point midway between sen ted and extrapolated as straight lines
9, = Po ( ! + !!... e)-1I6
or P,-b = Po-b (I + ~ e) [181
" aD
lI.nd
P.+. = Po { I + ~ (t + v) } -lib or
By adding together the right sides of even though the decline may be of the
~qs. 11 and 19. the time interval 'II is hyperbolic type. The reason seems to be
.Jiminated and %1I.n cl!pression is obtained that this procedure allows a wide range
tb~t i!' twice t.he value of the right side of in small space on the vertical log scale
F~q. xlt Therefore: and at the same time has a simple linear
2P,-t = P,_.-b + p,{.•-'J; [-zo] horizontal time scale. The curvature in the
rate-timl': relationship for this case, how-
If the rate at the first point is n times ever. makes extrapolation difficult and
the rate at the last point, the value of the uncertain.
rate at the middle point (P,) can be With the help of the" three-p";':C!; rule"
c:<tpre!!sed as: for hyperbolic decline. it is now possible
!
to extrapolate such a curved hyperbolic
PI = (t'-I> ~t- 1) - b PH> [nJ rate-time curve on semilog paper with a
fair degree of accuracy by simple graphica.l
This relationship was used advan- construction. This procedure is shown on
tageously for a simple graphical extrapola- Fig, 3. Three points, A, E and B, are
tlJO 400 S!vG f>C)Q GQO SOC IpOO
~
eOO I
I
'/w.
,! II +
...0
V
...Z:z:
~
'00-
600 I ".§
.. .. .. 15 40,000
~ s.. I I 0
tl-t
:::;
\0,000 II:
':-'
r-
<Ii
I&j
a.
':-'
.J
. i If)
:.-
1
..J
lSI 1
ell ~
til III 'tI
'00
! ~
1&1
iii
!( !(
1(
cr: .0,000
a:
9,000
z0 8.~OQ
Z
'1/;)00
i= 0
j:
,.
'.000
u &,000
U
::l
Q "',ClOO. ::l
0 0
cr: ',000 0
cr:
a.
I.
'&.,000 Il.
"
CI.
Q.
••0
19~5 19~6 19~7 mtl 1'~9 1940 1941 \942. 1943 1944 1945 1946 1945 190;,0 1951
Tll\AE"I t:
FIG. 4.-STRAIGHT-LINE DECLINE CHART 1'0R lIYPE.Il:"OLIC DECLINE. b = 0.5.
To be l:sed f('\"( production curves wh~:re rle<:line is proportiona- t<> 1(,,. "O'lare root of the pO~l1ctiOJl late.
:n~~<.~;<;,:\,l,;t~1 ~~<~b iiac., ir!,\ttl ~~~ ;;,~,::,s ".:,:. i:r.\;~~~, !}j<!dllC'n~ ::.:""6°/U ~}u·}' '\.':~ j~ Ur·"··~,
ANALYSIS OF D}:CUNE CURVES
The chart for b ,,- 0.5 is shown in Fig. 4 right should be used in conjunction with
and the data from Table 2 are plotted on the linear cumulative scale on the top of
this chart to show the straight-line extra- the chart,'while the scale on the left should
polation procedure. The scale on the right be used in combination with the linear
o
e
Q. 40,OOO~ 30,000Ci.
Q.
"
Q. Cl.,
1000..,
qOO-
800 - . 30,000
700 - 20,000
600-
500 -:
400- 20,000
200
300- 10,000
~
100 ~.J...J....'--'-L_~':-'-:::'
1000 1000
t=Time
a 100
FIG. 5.--STRAIGHT-LINE DECLINE CHART FOR
EXPONENTIAL DECLINE. FIG. 6.--STRAIGHT··LINE DECLINE CHART FOR
a = constant; b = o. HYPERBOLIC DECLINE.
(For curves with constant decline,) b = 0.25.
(To be used.if decline is proportional to the
is designed to match the b value of the one ~ power of the production rate.)
on the left, so that it will fit the rate- time scale on the bottom. Both curves
cumulative relationship. The scale on the can then be plotted and extrapolated as
244 ANALYSIS OF DECLINE CURVES
-;traight lines, simultaneously. Vertical points are selected on the available curve
scales for similar charts, designed for in such a manner that the production rate
b values of 0, '0.25 and 1.0 are shown of the first point is twice the rate at the last
In Figs .. 5,6 and 7, respectively. point. The production rate at the midway
point is then read off and its ratio to the
c= Cumulotive 0"11 production 100000
iOO,OOO last point determined. If this ratio has a
5000- I I qO;OOO
r- 80,000 value between 1.414 and 1.396, the chart
2000 -: t-. 70,000 for b = ° should be used; if it is between
100
m I
t=Time
I
-
100
application for approximate estimates
because of its simplicity, and the hyperbolic
type of decline, which is more complicated,
but-also generally more accurate, there are
FIG. 7.-STRAIGHT-LINE DECLINE CHART FOR several empirical equations that can
HARMONIC DECLINE.
b = I. sometimes be used to represent production-
(To be used if decline is proportional to the decline curves if the simpler types are
production rate.) inadequate. Three of the more important
To determine which chart should! be used, types are discussed in the following
the three-point rule c~.'l b~ used: Two pages.
J. J. ARPS 245
Loss Ratios Form a Geometric Series TABI.E 4.-Loss Ratio for the Family
(Ratio Decline) Decline Cur~e of a Field Producing from
the Wilcox Sand in Oklahoma
A curve of this type has the charac- (TYPICAL CASE OF RATIO DECLINE)
teristic that the decline percentage-time
relationship is similar to the rate-time ] Loos In Loos Ratio of
Produc-
Monthly tion Rate Ratio. on Succes c
relationship for exponential decline and M onth Year Pr'!duc- during 6 Monthly sive L05~
Basis, Ratios,
can be plotted as a straight line on semilog tI~n Months p
RatIO. P Interval. a=6t.P r • =a~ -
- - - - - - - - ._--- _.__
paper. In other words, the decline fraction t.P an_I
..
.-
itself is declining at a constant percentage
--
July .. 9 565 45 -75·974
P = Poe a.logr an .. . 10 528 37 -85.631 • I. 127
July .. 10 497 31 -96.5 14 1. 127
The simplest way to recognize this type The ratio of successive loss ratios is approximately
constant; average value, 1.127.
d decline, and to extrapolate it, is by Extrapolation until the tenth year. in the lower
half of the tabulation. by means of this average value
means of the loss-ratio tabulation. The
equation for the rate-cumulative curve, First Derivatives of Loss Ratios Form
which can be found by integration of Eq. an Arithmetic Series
25, is too complicated for practical use. The first derivatives of the loss ratios
As an example of the statistical treatment form an arithmetic series and the second
(,f production curves of this type, Table 4 derivatives are constant. S. T. Pirson 16
shows a loss-ratio tabulation of the family worked out the three possible mathematical
decline curve from a Wilcox sand pool in solutions for the rate-time equations, and
Oklahoma. As before, the per well produc- complete details may be found in his paper.
tion rates at equal time intervals are It has been found that these equatiom
t.abulated in column 3, the drop in produc- are generally too complicated for practical
tion rate in column 4 and the loss ratio usc. The simplest way to extrapolate a
in column 5. In this case the loss ratios curve, showing these characteristics, is by
form approximately a geometric series. means of the loss-ratio method.
This is evidenced by the fact that the
figures in column 6, which represent the Straight-line Relationship between
ratios of successive loss-ratio values, are Decline Percentage a.nd Time on Log-log
approximatel)C constant. Their average Paper
value is 1.127 and this figure was used This type of decline was discussed in a
for the extrapolation of column 6 in thc general way on pages 4 ~,) 5, and for
lower half of the table. The extrapolated more details we refer to the orieinal artick
values for the production rate were then by P. J. Jones. 21
found by reversing the process used in the Aside from the fact that there is a
upper part of the tabulation. straight-line relationship between decline
ANALYSIS OF DECUNE CURVES
and time on log-log paper, this type of If the loss ratio is COllstan t, the decline
curve can l':lso be extrapolated as a straight curve must be of the exponential type.
line by plotting. the log-log of the produc- If the loss-rf!.tio figures are not constant,
tion rate against the log of the time. but form an arithmetic series, the decline
Statistical extrapolation by means of the will be of the hyperbolic or' harmonic type,
loss-ratio method is possible but too com- depending on the value of the increment b.
plicated for practical use. If the loss-ratio figures indicate a geometric
series, the curve must be of the ra.tio-
TENTATIVE CLASSIFICATION OF
decline type.
DECLINE CURVES, BASED
C = alP, - P)
:t:i~~_~:::;~~:g_logi;a~e:;:e;::::ng)_ - To=plica~ed ._-
Cumulative-rate re- - PH) -logP)
lationship (C, Pl (Straight line on special decline charts)
(Straight line on co- (Straight line on log- (Straight line on
ordinate paper log paper after shift- semilog paper)
ing)
.---.---.--~-.--------