King Fahd University of Petroleum and Minerals

Department of Electrical Engineering

EE 315 Probabilistic Methods in Electrical Engineering
Summer Semester 173

Major Exam I
Tuesday, 10 July 2018
7:00 pm – 9:00 pm

Name:

ID:

Sections: 1

Instructor: Wajih Abu-Al-Saud

Problem Score Out of

1 35

2 30

3 35

Total 100

Good luck!
Problem 1

Ahmad is a basketball player who is known to score basketballs he throws with probability of
(0.75). He is participating in a competition, where he wins if he scores 3 or more of the
basketballs given to him. The competition goes as follows:
- Ahmad throws a fair die that has 6 faces labeled (3, 3, 3, 4, 4, 5).
- He is given a number of basketballs equal to the outcome of the die.
- He throws the basketballs given to him and tries to score as many of them as possible.

a) Given that Ahmad received exactly 5 balls, find probability that he does NOT win.
b) Find probability that Ahmad wins the competition. (5 Points)
c) Find probability that Ahmad scores all balls given to him regardless of their number. (6
Points)
d) Given that Ahmad did NOT win, find probability that he received exactly 4 balls. (6 Points)
e) Given that Ahmad missed the first and scored the second ball that was given to him, find the
probability that he wins. (6 Points)
f) Find probability that Ahmad misses exactly two of the balls given to him such that these balls
are in consecutive throws. (6 Points)

a) Ahmad will not win given that he received 5 balls if he scores only 2 or less of these 5 balls.

b) Ahmad will win the competition if he score 3 or more balls regardless of the number of balls
given to him. To find this, we will have to use Total Probability knowing the following
c) Ahmad will score all balls given to him if he scores exactly 3 given that he gets 3 balls or
score exactly 4 given that he gets 4 balls or score exactly 5 given that he gets 5 balls. Here, we
will also need Total Probability in the following form:

d) Now, we have to use Bayes’ theorem to find this:

e) Given that Ahmad missed the first ball and scored the second ball, he clearly cannot win if
received only 3 balls. However, if he received 4 balls, he will be able to win if he scores the
remaining two balls, and if he received 5 balls, he will be able to win if he score 2 or more of
the remaining 3 balls. Again, we have to use total probability for this as follows:
f) We will also need to use Total Probability in this part. However, remember the following (let
S = Score and M = Miss):

- For 3 balls, there are 2 cases that Ahmad will miss exactly two balls that are consecutive
represented by (M-M-S) , (S-M-M)
Probability of each case is (0.75)1(0.25)2

- For 4 balls, there are 3 cases that Ahmad will miss exactly two balls that are consecutive
represented by (M-M-S-S) , (S-M-M-S) , (S-S-M-M)
Probability of each case is (0.75)2(0.25)2

- For 5 balls, there are 4 cases that Ahmad will miss exactly two balls that are consecutive
represented by (M-M-S-S-S) , (S-M-M-S-S) , (S-S-M-M-S) , (S-S-S-M-M)
Probability of each case is (0.75)3(0.25)2
Problem 2

A machine that manufactures small balls produces balls with mass that is a Gaussian random
variable (M) with mean aM = 102 grams and standard deviation M = 4 grams. Assume that balls
with mass in the range 93 – 107 grams are considered acceptable while balls with mass outside
this range are rejected.
a) Find the probability that a manufactured ball will be rejected. (9 Points)
b) Given that the mass of a ball was less than 109 grams, find the probability that it will be
rejected. (9 Points)
c) Given that a ball was rejected, find probability that its mass was less than 109 grams.
(6 Points)
d) If 6 balls were picket by random, given that the first was rejected, find probability that
second is accepted, third is rejected, and exactly two of the remaining three balls are
accepted. (6 Points)

a) One way to solve this is to find the probability of the complementing event. That is,
Probability of a ball being accepted because its mass is in the range 93 – 107 grams:

b) Now, we have to find the following:

The two events in the numerator (M  93 and 107 < M  109) are mutually
exclusive (no intersection). Therefore,
c) We need to use Bayes’ theorem:

d) This is a form of Bernoulli trials.

Problem 3

The parts of this problem are unrelated.

a) Two fair dice each with three faces labeled (0, 1, 2) are tossed. A random variable X is
obtained by multiplying the outcomes of the two dice. Sketch and write a mathematical
expression for the CDF FX(x) of the random variable X. (8 points)

Table of Outcomes
Die 1 0 1 2
Die 2
0 0 0 0
1 0 1 2
2 0 2 4

All 9 boxes in the table above have equal probabilities

of occurring because the two dice are fair

, , , ,

So,

b) Find the probability that you throw a fair 6-face die two times and get a number on the second
throw that is different from the number obtained on the first throw. (5 points)

- There are 36 possible outcomes (1,1), (1,2), …. , (6,6).

- Out of these 36 possible outcomes, 6 of which have the same number for both throws.
- So, 30 out of the possible outcomes are due to the two appearing faces having different
numbers,

So,
c) In an experiment, two events and have probabilities , , and
. Determine if these two events are independent or not (Justify your answer).
(6 points)

For the two events A and B to be independent, the following relation must be satisfied

However,

So, and are NOT independent.

d) An airplane has three engines (E1, E2, and E3). The three engines have probability of failing
in a specific flight equal to
- P(E1 failing) = 0.15
- P(E2 failing) = 0.20
- P(E3 failing) = 0.25
Engines fail independently from each other. The airplane will crash in a specific flight if two
or more of its engines fail. Find probability that the airplane crashes in a specific flight.
(10 points)

Let us draw a tree diagram for this problem:

Since the different engines fail independently of each other, the probability for
each case of airplane crashing is obtained by
multiplying the probabilities of the corresponding
states for the different engines. We then add the
probabilities that will result in the airplane
crashing because the different sequences of failures are
Mutually Exclusive events. So:
e) Each of the following functions are INVALID Probability Density Functions (pdf). For each,
give only one reason that caused that function to be an invalid pdf. (6 points)

Invalid pdf because

Invalid pdf because

Invalid pdf because

Invalid pdf because

Evaluation of Standard Normal Function for values of 0  x  4.09

x 0 0.01 0.02 0.03 0.04 0.05 0.06 0.07 0.08 0.09

0.5000 0.5039 0.5079 0.5119 0.5159 0.5199 0.5239 0.5279 0.5318 0.5358
0.0 0 9 8 7 5 4 2 0 8 6
0.5398 0.5438 0.5477 0.5517 0.5556 0.5596 0.5635 0.5674 0.5714 0.5753
0.1 3 0 6 2 7 2 6 9 2 5
0.5792 0.5831 0.5870 0.5909 0.5948 0.5987 0.6025 0.6064 0.6102 0.6140
0.2 6 7 6 5 3 1 7 2 6 9
0.6179 0.6217 0.6255 0.6293 0.6330 0.6368 0.6405 0.6443 0.6480 0.6517
0.3 1 2 2 0 7 3 8 1 3 3
0.6554 0.6591 0.6627 0.6664 0.6700 0.6736 0.6772 0.6808 0.6843 0.6879
0.4 2 0 6 0 3 4 4 2 9 3
0.6914 0.6949 0.6984 0.7019 0.7054 0.7088 0.7122 0.7156 0.7190 0.7224
0.5 6 7 7 4 0 4 6 6 4 0
0.7257 0.7290 0.7323 0.7356 0.7389 0.7421 0.7453 0.7485 0.7517 0.7549
0.6 5 7 7 5 1 5 7 7 5 0
0.7580 0.7611 0.7642 0.7673 0.7703 0.7733 0.7763 0.7793 0.7823 0.7852
0.7 4 5 4 0 5 7 7 5 0 4
0.7881 0.7910 0.7938 0.7967 0.7995 0.8023 0.8051 0.8078 0.8105 0.8132
0.8 4 3 9 3 5 4 1 5 7 7
0.8159 0.8185 0.8212 0.8238 0.8263 0.8289 0.8314 0.8339 0.8364 0.8389
0.9 4 9 1 1 9 4 7 8 6 1
0.8413 0.8437 0.8461 0.8484 0.8508 0.8531 0.8554 0.8576 0.8599 0.8621
1.0 4 5 4 9 3 4 3 9 3 4
0.8643 0.8665 0.8686 0.8707 0.8728 0.8749 0.8769 0.8790 0.8810 0.8829
1.1 3 0 4 6 6 3 8 0 0 8
0.8849 0.8868 0.8887 0.8906 0.8925 0.8943 0.8961 0.8979 0.8997 0.9014
1.2 3 6 7 5 1 5 7 6 3 7
0.9032 0.9049 0.9065 0.9082 0.9098 0.9114 0.9130 0.9146 0.9162 0.9177
1.3 0 0 8 4 8 9 9 6 1 4
0.9192 0.9207 0.9222 0.9236 0.9250 0.9264 0.9278 0.9292 0.9305 0.9318
1.4 4 3 0 4 7 7 5 2 6 9
0.9331 0.9344 0.9357 0.9369 0.9382 0.9394 0.9406 0.9417 0.9429 0.9440
1.5 9 8 4 9 2 3 2 9 5 8
0.9452 0.9463 0.9473 0.9484 0.9495 0.9505 0.9515 0.9525 0.9535 0.9544
1.6 0 0 8 5 0 3 4 4 2 9
0.9554 0.9563 0.9572 0.9581 0.9590 0.9599 0.9608 0.9616 0.9624 0.9632
1.7 3 7 8 8 7 4 0 4 6 7
0.9640 0.9648 0.9656 0.9663 0.9671 0.9678 0.9685 0.9692 0.9699 0.9706
1.8 7 5 2 8 2 4 6 6 5 2
0.9712 0.9719 0.9725 0.9732 0.9738 0.9744 0.9750 0.9755 0.9761 0.9767
1.9 8 3 7 0 1 1 0 8 5 0
0.9772 0.9777 0.9783 0.9788 0.9793 0.9798 0.9803 0.9807 0.9812 0.9816
2.0 5 8 1 2 2 2 0 7 4 9
0.9821 0.9825 0.9830 0.9834 0.9838 0.9842 0.9846 0.9850 0.9853 0.9857
2.1 4 7 0 1 2 2 1 0 7 4
0.9861 0.9864 0.9867 0.9871 0.9874 0.9877 0.9880 0.9884 0.9887 0.9889
2.2 0 5 9 3 5 8 9 0 0 9
2.3 0.9892 0.9895 0.9898 0.9901 0.9903 0.9906 0.9908 0.9911 0.9913 0.9915
 8 6 3 0 6 1 6 1 4 8
0.9918 0.9920 0.9922 0.9924 0.9926 0.9928 0.9930 0.9932 0.9934 0.9936
2.4 0 2 4 5 6 6 5 4 3 1
0.9937 0.9939 0.9941 0.9943 0.9944 0.9946 0.9947 0.9949 0.9950 0.9952
2.5 9 6 3 0 6 1 7 2 6 0
0.9953 0.9954 0.9956 0.9957 0.9958 0.9959 0.9960 0.9962 0.9963 0.9964
2.6 4 7 0 3 5 8 9 1 2 3
0.9965 0.9966 0.9967 0.9968 0.9969 0.9970 0.9971 0.9972 0.9972 0.9973
2.7 3 4 4 3 3 2 1 0 8 6
0.9974 0.9975 0.9976 0.9976 0.9977 0.9978 0.9978 0.9979 0.9980 0.9980
2.8 4 2 0 7 4 1 8 5 1 7
0.9981 0.9981 0.9982 0.9983 0.9983 0.9984 0.9984 0.9985 0.9985 0.9986
2.9 3 9 5 1 6 1 6 1 6 1
0.9986 0.9986 0.9987 0.9987 0.9988 0.9988 0.9988 0.9989 0.9989 0.9990
3.0 5 9 4 8 2 6 9 3 6 0
0.9990 0.9990 0.9991 0.9991 0.9991 0.9991 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992 0.9992
3.1 3 6 0 3 6 8 1 4 6 9
0.9993 0.9993 0.9993 0.9993 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9994 0.9995
3.2 1 4 6 8 0 2 4 6 8 0
0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9995 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9996
3.3 2 3 5 7 8 0 1 2 4 5
0.9996 0.9996 0.9996 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997
3.4 6 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9997 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998
3.5 7 8 8 9 0 1 1 2 3 3
0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998 0.9998
3.6 4 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9
0.9998 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.7 9 0 0 0 1 1 2 2 2 2
0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.8 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 5 5 5
0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
3.9 5 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7
0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999 0.9999
4.0 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8