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HDFC Life Insurance - 1
HDFC Life Insurance - 1
14 January 2020 1
Highlights from the management commentary
With the merger with Exide Life, the management aims to remain margin
neutral. However, scope exists to touch 30% over the next two-years, assuming
no change in regulations and no loss in market share.
It launched several products to meet diverse customer needs – Sanchay FMP in
Non-PAR savings, a regular pay deferred Annuity plan, and a Term variant with
riders covering the 3Ds of death, disease, and disability.
The management aims to grow Individual Protection in double-digits in FY23.
For this, HDFCLIFE is developing tools for automated underwriting, video
medical checks, and tech to measure BMI, heart rate, and other vitals.
Key exhibits
Exhibit 2: Share of Non-PAR Savings/Annuity/Protection at
Exhibit 1: Share of Non-PAR healthy at 33% of Individual APE 30%/5%/~14% of total APE
ULIP PAR Non-PAR savings Group Term Annuity
ULIP PAR Non-PAR savings TermAnnuity
5% 4% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 5% 4% 5% 6% 3% 5%
4% 6% 14%
7% 8% 7% 6% 8% 6% 6% 17% 4% 5% 14% 16% 4%
13% 14%
17% 13%
15%
41% 31% 33% 32% 32% 35% 33% 6%
6%
6% 5% 7% 9% 30%
15% 7%
18% 13% 28% 27% 27% 27%
34% 26%
29% 25% 24% 26% 25% 25%
19% 34% 30% 29% 31% 30% 30% 16%
55%
46% 23% 22% 22% 22%
20% 22% 22%
28% 24% 26% 27% 25% 26% 26%
FY20
FY22
2QFY22
3QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
FY21
FY19
1QFY22
1QFY22
4QFY22
2QFY22
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
Calculation
Beta-
Historical Beta from stock prices (regression analysis) comes to 0.74.
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HDFC Life Insurance
WACC-
Using above, Cost of equity and cost of Debt WACC comes to 10.24%.
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HDFC Life Insurance
It views the listing of LIC as positive. It feels the low penetration of Insurance in
India will ensure enough room for everyone to exist & grow.
The management is not worried about growth in the future as the sector should
grow at 2x India’s GDP.
HDFC Pension crossed the INR280b AUM mark, up 73% YoY. It was numero uno
in terms of fund performance, with a market share of 37%.
Business mix
The management’s focus remains on maintaining a balanced product mix.
It launched several products to meet diverse customer needs – Sanchay FMP in
Non-PAR savings, a regular pay deferred Annuity plan, and a Term variant with
riders covering the 3Ds of death, disease, and disability.
HDFCLIFE has seen strong growth in Protection, with a 55% jump in Credit Life.
Demand for Individual Protection products remains robust. However, HDFCLIFE
is constrained due to underwriting challenges and lack of proper medical check-
ups across the country.
The management aims to grow Individual Protection in double-digits in FY23.
For this, HDFCLIFE is developing tools for automated underwriting, video
medical checks, and tech to measure BMI, heart rate, and other vitals.
HDFCLIFE grew its Annuity business at 24% v/s 3% for the industry.
Long tenured Non-PAR products will have a cap in terms of its contribution to
total mix.
Short tenured Non-PAR will have no cap as it is simpler to hedge. Typically, it is a
single premium 10-year product.
Since its launch, it constitutes ~15% of the business mix.
Distribution mix
All channels have reported healthy growth.
Bancassurance grew 13%, while proprietary posted a growth of 18%.
More than 40,000 agents were added in FY22 – the second highest among
private players.
Exide Life’s agents are eager to sell HDFCLIFE’s products as the latter has a much
wider portfolio and a stronger brand and thus is easier to sell.
There exist opportunities to cross-sell and upsell to its customer base with the
help of analytics.
Agent activation of Exide Life is in line with that of the industry.
HDFCLIFE is trying to build a team of women financial consultants. It expects this
team to be sticky and loyal, and with a right nudge lead to higher productivity.
Source: MOFSL, Company Source: MOFSL, Company
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HDFC Life Insurance
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HDFC Life Insurance
Story in charts
Exhibit 3: Net premium income grew by ~11% YoY Exhibit 4: Proportion of premium trends
Net Premium First Yr Premium Renewal Premium Single Premium
100%
36.4%
34.8%
31.7%
29.2%
27.8%
27.3%
23.0%
25.8%
20.8%
75%
15.1%
13.9%
13.9%
11.0%
10.0%
2.1%
50%
-11.3%
25%
0%
1QFY19
2QFY19
3QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
2QFY20
3QFY20
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY19
2QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
4QFY20
3QFY21
2QFY22
3QFY22
4QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
3QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
3QFY19
2QFY20
3QFY20
1QFY21
2QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
4QFY22
Source: Company reports Source: Company reports
Exhibit 5: Trend in PAT, existing business surplus, and new Exhibit 6: Trend in underwriting profit and shareholders’
business strain surplus
New Business Strain Existing business surplus PAT
Shareholder's surplus Underwriting profits
34.9 13%
29.9 32.3
36% 32% 41%
54% 56%
12.913.612.16.53.08.32.78.52.811.63.6 84%
87%
-6.1 -7.4 -7.4 -9.6
-19.1 64% 64%63%
-25.0 46%44%
-30.5 16%
FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 4QFY22 FY20 FY21 FY22 1QFY22 2QFY22 3QFY22 4QFY22
Source: Company reports
Source: Company reports
Exhibit 7: Persistency trends remain steady Exhibit 8: Solvency ratio moderates to 176% in 4QFY22
13th Month 25th Month 61st Month
Solvency Ratio Regulatory requirement
92%
92%
91%
90%
90%
90%
90%
89%
89%
88%
87%
86%
58%
58%
57%
56%
56%
55%
55%
54%
53%
53%
53%
53%
198%
201%
191%
192%
197%
193%
191%
188%
193%
192%
195%
184%
190%
203%
202%
201%
203%
190%
190%
176%
80%
80%
80%
81%
85%
86%
78%
75%
81%
79%
84%
84%
FY21
9MFY22
FY22
1HFY20
9MFY20
FY20
1HFY21
9MFY21
1QFY22
1HFY22
1QFY20
1QFY21
4QFY18
1QFY19
4QFY19
1QFY20
4QFY20
1QFY21
4QFY21
1QFY22
4QFY22
1QFY18
2QFY18
3QFY18
2QFY19
3QFY19
2QFY20
3QFY20
2QFY21
3QFY21
2QFY22
3QFY22
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HDFC Life Insurance
Premium (INR b) and growth (%) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
NBP – unweighted 149.7 172.4 201.1 241.5 314.0 380.0
NBP – WRP 60.5 71.6 81.8 96.6 129.5 154.9
Renewal premium 142.1 154.7 184.8 218.1 259.8 322.7
Total premium – unweighted 291.9 327.1 385.8 459.6 573.8 702.6
NBP growth – unweighted 31.9% 15.1% 16.6% 20.1% 30.0% 21.0%
NBP growth – WRP 12.0% 18.4% 14.2% 18.1% 34.0% 19.7%
Renewal premium growth 16.4% 8.8% 19.4% 18.0% 19.1% 24.2%
Tot. premium growth – unweighted 23.9% 12.1% 18.0% 19.1% 24.8% 22.4%
Indi premium sourcing mix (%) FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Individual agents 13.8% 13.3% 12.3% 15.0% 17.0% 18.0%
Corporate agents – Banks 46.7% 41.8% 45.8% 49.5% 46.6% 46.5%
Direct business 31.8% 35.0% 33.4% 28.0% 29.0% 28.0%
Others 7.8% 9.9% 8.5% 7.5% 7.4% 7.5%
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HDFC Life Insurance
Valuation and key data FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23E FY24E
Total AUM (INR b) 1,256 1,272 1,738 2,042 2,492 2,946
- of which equity AUM (%) 38% 29% 36% 36% 38% 39%
Dividend (%) 16% 0% 0% 17% 20% 25%
Dividend payout ratio (%) 31% 0% 0% 0% 27% 29%
EPS (INR) 6.3 6.4 6.7 5.7 7.5 8.5
VNB (INR b) 15.40 19.18 21.85 26.75 35.7 44.6
Embedded Value (INR b) 182.7 206.3 266.2 329.5 388.6 461.3
EV per share (INR) 90.4 102.1 131.7 163.0 192.3 228.2
VIF as a percentage of EV 68% 65% 66% 69% 71% 73%
P/VIF (%) 8.9 8.3 6.3 4.9 4.0 3.3
P/AUM (%) 88% 87% 64% 54% 45% 38%
P/EV (x) 6.1 5.4 4.2 3.4 2.9 2.4
P/EPS (x) 86.7 85.6 81.6 96.3 73.8 64.5
P/EVOP (x) 36.3 33.5 29.0 25.2 17.4 14.2
P/VNB (x) 72.1 57.9 50.8 41.5 31.1 24.9
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HDFC Life Insurance
Note- Here I have not used DCF method, because it is more challenging to predict cash flow, it has less value. This is
because it is more difficult to estimate the cash flow coming from the insurance activities due to the impact of the
investment portfolio and the consequent cash flows on the cash flow statement. Another issue raised above is that it
takes years to produce these flows.
Technical Analysis
RSI- 64.1
RSI is 64.1, RSI below 30 is considered oversold and above 70 overbought. Stock is averagely bought.
Stock Volume Analysis- Currently stock volume is greater than month average. So, high volume.
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HDFC Life Insurance
Sensitivity Analysis
P/E and EPS are the two important variables which in turn are dependent on profits and margins.
Stock prices are calculated. The highest can be seen if EPS grows at 9% and P/E grows at 3.5%.
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