No Atron readings Forecast Error Abs Err Sqr Err APE α

1 60.00 60
2 81.00 60.0
3 72.00 60.9
4 78.00 61.4
5 61.50 62.2
6 78.00 62.1
7 57.00 62.8
8 84.00 62.6
9 72.00 63.5
10 67.50 63.9
11 99.00 64.1
12 25.50 65.6
13 93.00 63.8
14 75.00 65.1
15 57.00 65.6
16 88.50 65.2
17 76.50 66.2
18 82.50 66.7
19 72.00 67.4
20 76.50 67.6
21 75.00 74.70328 0.30 0.296725 0.09 0%
22 78.00 75.49935 2.50 2.500652 6.25 3%
23 66.00 73.9072 -7.91 7.907203 62.52 12%
24 97.50 80.27579 17.22 17.22421 296.67 18%
25 60.00 63.55826 -3.56 3.558255 12.66 6%
26 97.50 83.46008 14.04 14.03992 197.12 14%
27 61.50 63.55826 -2.06 2.058255 4.24 3%
28 96.00 82.664 13.34 13.336 177.85 14%
29 79.50 64.35433 15.15 15.14567 229.39 19%
30 72.00 73.11113 -1.11 1.11113 1.23 2%
31 79.50 77.09149 2.41 2.408506 5.80 3%
32 64.50 73.11113 -8.61 8.61113 74.15 13%
33 99.00 81.07186 17.93 17.92814 321.42 18%
34 72.00 62.76218 9.24 9.237818 85.34 13%
35 78.00 77.09149 0.91 0.908506 0.83 1%
36 63.00 73.9072 -10.91 10.9072 118.97 17%
37 66.00 81.86793 -15.87 15.86793 251.79 24%
38 84.00 80.27579 3.72 3.724215 13.87 4%
39 66.00 70.72291 -4.72 4.722911 22.31 7%
40 87.00 80.27579 6.72 6.724215 45.22 8%
41 61.50 69.13077 -7.63 7.630765 58.23 12%
42 81.00 82.664 -1.66 1.664004 2.77 2%
43 76.50 72.31506 4.18 4.184943 17.51 5%
44 84.00 74.70328 9.30 9.296725 86.43 11%
45 57.00 70.72291 -13.72 13.72291 188.32 24%
46 84.00 85.05222 -1.05 1.052223 1.11 1%
47 73.50 70.72291 2.78 2.777089 7.71 4%
48 78.00 76.29542 1.70 1.704579 2.91 2%
49 49.50 73.9072 -24.41 24.4072 595.71 49%
50 78.00 89.03259 -11.03 11.03259 121.72 14%
51 88.50 73.9072 14.59 14.5928 212.95 16%
52 51.00 68.33469 -17.33 17.33469 300.49 34%
53 85.50 88.23651 -2.74 2.736514 7.49 3%
54 58.50 69.92684 -11.43 11.42684 130.57 20%
55 90.00 84.25615 5.74 5.74385 32.99 6%
56 60.00 67.53862 -7.54 7.53862 56.83 13%
57 78.00 83.46008 -5.46 5.460077 29.81 7%
58 66.00 73.9072 -7.91 7.907203 62.52 12%
59 97.50 80.27579 17.22 17.22421 296.67 18%
60 64.50 63.55826 0.94 0.941745 0.89 1%
61 72.00 81.07186 -9.07 9.071858 82.30 13%
62 66.00 77.09149 -11.09 11.09149 123.02 17%
63 73.50 80.27579 -6.78 6.775785 45.91 9%
64 66.00 76.29542 -10.30 10.29542 106.00 16%
65 73.50 80.27579 -6.78 6.775785 45.91 9%
66 103.50 76.29542 27.20 27.20458 740.09 26%
67 60.00 60.37396 -0.37 0.373964 0.14 1%
68 81.00 83.46008 -2.46 2.460077 6.05 3%
69 87.00 72.31506 14.68 14.68494 215.65 17%
70 73.50 69.13077 4.37 4.369235 19.09 6%
71 90.00 76.29542 13.70 13.70458 187.82 15%
72 78.00 67.53862 10.46 10.46138 109.44 13%
73 87.00 73.9072 13.09 13.0928 171.42 15%
74 99.00 69.13077 29.87 29.86923 892.17 30%
75 72.00 62.76218 9.24 9.237818 85.34 13%

ME MAE MSE MAPE

76 80.88 1.26 9.02 126.76 12%
77 80.88 RMSE
11.26
0.044498
 Chart Title
110.00

100.00

90.00

80.00

70.00

60.00

50.00

40.00
21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52 53 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65

Actual Forecast
4 55 56 57 58 59 60 61 62 63 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75
No Atron readings Forecast
1 60 60

2 81 60.0

3 72 70.5
4 78 71.3
5 61.5 74.6
6 78 68.1
7 57 73.0
8 84 65.0
9 72 74.5
10 67.5 73.3
11 99 70.4
12 25.5 84.7
13 93 55.1
14 75 74.0
15 57 74.5
16 88.5 65.8
17 76.5 77.1
18 82.5 76.8
19 72 79.7
20 76.5 75.8
21 75 76.2
22 78 75.6
23 66 76.8
24 97.5 71.4
25 60 84.4
26 97.5 72.2
27 61.5 84.9
28 96 73.2
29 79.5 84.6
30 72 82.0
31 79.5 77.0
32 64.5 78.3
33 99 71.4
34 72 85.2
35 78 78.6
36 63 78.3
37 66 70.6
38 84 68.3
39 66 76.2
40 87 71.1
41 61.5 79.0
42 81 70.3
43 76.5 75.6
44 84 76.1
45 57 80.0
46 84 68.5
47 73.5 76.3
48 78 74.9
49 49.5 76.4
50 78 63.0
51 88.5 70.5
52 51 79.5
53 85.5 65.2
54 58.5 75.4
55 90 66.9
56 60 78.5
57 78 69.2
58 66 73.6
59 97.5 69.8
60 64.5 83.7
61 72 74.1
62 66 73.0
63 73.5 69.5
64 66 71.5
65 73.5 68.8
66 103.5 71.1
67 60 87.3
68 81 73.7
69 87 77.3
70 73.5 82.2
71 90 77.8
72 78 83.9
73 87 81.0
74 99 84.0
75 72 91.5
α 0.5

F1=Y1
Ft+1 = α*Yt + (1-α) Ft
Model MAPE LB
NF1 26%
MA(3) 17%
MA(12) 15%
α=0.5 19%
α=0.9 24%
α=0.1 15%
α=0.044 14%
R(SES) 14% 3.73E-06
SPSS(SES) 14% 0
ARIMA(1,0,0) 12% 0.508