Ijqrm 08 2018 0215

International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management
The effect of transformer parameters on reliability assessment with the help of

health index
Neelam Chantola, S.B. Singh,
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The effect of
The effect of transformer transformer
parameters on reliability parameters
assessment with the help of

health index
Neelam Chantola and S.B. Singh Received 13 August 2018
Revised 17 October 2018
Department of Mathematics, Statistics and Computer Science, Accepted 8 November 2018
Govind Ballabh Pant University of Agriculture and Technology, Pantnagar, India
Abstract
Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to study various reliability measures like reliability, mean time to failure
(MTTF) and sensitivity of transformer including different parameters of insulating oil/paper as health index.
Design/methodology/approach – The reliability characteristics of transformer incorporating different
parameters of insulating oil as well as paper have been evaluated using Markov process incorporating Gumbel–
Hougaard copula, Laplace transforms and supplementary variable technique. The parameters taken into
consideration are breakdown voltage (BDV ) and moisture content (MC) of both insulating oil and paper, and
other parameters considered are interfacial tension (IFT), dissipation factor (DF), degree of polymerization
(DOP) and furanic content (FC) for insulating oil and paper, respectively. By probability consideration and
continuity influence, difference-differential equations have been obtained for the considered model.
Findings – Transition state probabilities, reliability, MTTF and sensitivity of the transformer corresponding
to different parameters of insulating oil and paper have been evaluated with the help of aforementioned
technique. Variations of reliability with respect to time along with the variations of MTTF and sensitivity
have also been examined. Remarkable points during the study have also been pointed out.
Originality/value – Reliability characteristics of the transformer have been evaluated including two
parameters: insulating oil and paper with the help of supplementary variable technique, considering two
different types of repairs incorporating Gumbel–Hougaard family of copula unlike done earlier. Reliability,
MTTF and sensitivity of transformer have been analyzed considering the parameters: BDV, MC, IFT and FC
of insulating oil, and BDV, MC, DOP, DF of insulating paper.
Keywords Reliability, Sensitivity, Mean time to failure, Gumbel–Hougaard copula, Transformer
Paper type Research Paper
1. Introduction
In a power supply system, the most critical equipment is transformer. The internal situation of
transformer degrades with age and subsequently it fails to combat the system deviations such
as short circuit faults or transient overvoltages. Phenomenal events, such as excess in voltages,
short circuits in system and crisis loading, affect the insulation life expectancy of transformer
to a high degree (Arshad et al., 2014). The continuous operation of power transformers
throughout life depends on the long-standing life of the oil/paper insulation system (Wang et al.,
2011). Within the transformer, the thermal, hydrolytic, oxidative, electrical and mechanical
conditions contribute to the degradation of oil/paper insulation. When the combat strength of
transformer corresponding to oil/paper is exceeded by operational stresses (parameters), then it
results in the failure of the transformer ( Jahromi et al., 2009). Due to various aging processes,
there will be a natural decrease in the withstanding strength of a transformer over its life.
Under the impact of health index (oil/paper insulation), aging may occur faster than normal
(Arshad et al., 2014). Health index method is a main tool for the evaluation of a complex system
such as transformer and it is very useful for representing the overall health of transformer
( Jahromi et al., 2009). Further, it is based on numerous condition criteria which quantifies International Journal of Quality &
Reliability Management
equipment condition related to the long-standing degradation factors accumulatively leading to © Emerald Publishing Limited
0265-671X
an end-of-life of assets. DOI 10.1108/IJQRM-08-2018-0215
IJQRM For complex systems, reliability engineering needs a divergent, extra elaborated system
approach than reliability for non-complex systems. The reliability analyses have significant
links with function examination, requirements specification, designing of system,
manufacturing, testing, maintenance, technical documentation and more. Many systems in
the real world have dependent components, and failure of the components has some influence
on the working component thus causing an increased stress. Therefore, reliability
characteristics of such systems are dependent on their components as well as on the
interactions amongst the components. Usually, probability distribution is used to analyze the
reliability of the system. Generally in failure/repair analysis, a single distribution is used. But
one can take help of copula if two different distributions are to be applied simultaneously in
repair/failure which joins or couples a multivariate distribution function to its one-dimensional
marginal distribution functions. Many researchers have analyzed systems having different
failure modes using copula. Ram and Singh (2008) applied Gumbel–Hougaard family of
copula under preemptive repeat repair discipline to determine the availability, MTTF and cost
analysis of complex system. Nailwal and Singh (2016) calculated the reliability of cold
standby-redundant systems with preventive maintenance using Gumbel–Hougaard family of
the copula. Munjal and Singh (2014) considered the complex repairable system consisting of
2-out-of-3: G subsystems connected in parallel for finding the reliability characteristics using
Gumbel–Hougaard family of copula in repair. Nailwal and Singh (2011) evaluated the
performance and reliability analysis of the complex system having three types of repairs with
the application of copula. Srinivasan and Subramanian (2006) considered standby systems
with more than two units and these systems are studied when the lifetime or the repair time is
exponentially distributed. This study also included a special type of delay, namely, reboots
delay and used Gumbel–Hougaard family of copula to obtain different transition state
probabilities, reliability, availability, MTTF, sensitivity analysis and cost analysis. Nailwal
and Singh (2012) investigated the characteristics of reliability having nine subsystems
arranged in the form of a matrix in which each row contains three subsystems of a complex
system. The considered system analyzed the different types of power failures which also led
to the failure of the system.
In the past, the reliability of transformer with different parameters has been studied by
researchers by using different techniques. Wang et al. (2011) stated that the life of insulating
oil–paper was proven to obey the Weibull distribution under eight different temperatures.
Endrenyi et al. (1998) have given the probabilistic assessment of the effect of maintenance
on reliability. Jirutitijaroen and Singh (2004) have given the detail of models correlated with
maintenance parameter to reliability and cost analysis and then scrutinized the effects of
varying model parameters. A probabilistic model was introduced in Jirutitijaroen and Singh,
(2004) and Endrenyi et al. (1998) to study the effect of maintenance on reliability.
Jirutitijaroen and Singh (2004) discussed about repairs action which is related to the oil
condition as a health index can be in any of four states: good condition, essential
reconditioning before use, reduced condition and bad condition. This study included mean
time in each stage, inspection rate of each stage, failure cost, inspection cost and
maintenance cost. On the basis of aforementioned papers, one can easily observe that the
reliability assessment of transformer has been obtained considering only insulating oil as
the health index incorporating many failures with different techniques.
From above discussion, it is observed that no thought has been given for insulating paper
as a health index, which is also an essential component in the insulation system of
transformer. So, the present work has focused on a better understanding of reliability
characteristics of the transformer considering the importance of both insulating oil and paper
in its working. The purpose of this paper is to present a condition-based resource management
tool which has the parameters of health index of transformer. Different parameters
of health index (insulating oil/paper) are characterized as breakdown voltage (BDV), moisture
content (MC), interfacial tension (IFT), dissipation factor (DF)/BDV, MC, degree of The effect of
polymerization (DOP), furanic content (FC) that quantifies the degradation of power transformer
transformer and subsequently helps in deciding whether the transformer needs to be replaced parameters
or repaired ( Jirutitijaroen and Singh, 2004). Thus, this study presents a novel idea considering
the health index as insulating oil/paper with different characteristic parameters.
1.1 Problem description

Keeping above facts in view, here reliability characteristics of transformer incorporating
different parameters of insulating oil as well as insulating paper are evaluated in this present
study unlike done in the past. BDV and MC are the parameters considered for both insulating
oil and paper, whereas IFT, DF for insulating oil and DOP, FC are considered for insulating
paper in the proposed study. In the considered system (transformer), we have considered three
different possible states, namely, operable, partial failure and complete failure. The transformer
is said to be in a partial failure state if one of the parameters of insulating oil/paper or one of
parameters of insulating paper/oil fails but system is still working. Subsequently, if any further
failure occurs due to the failure of remaining three parameters of oil/paper or paper/oil in the
transformer, then the system is in a completely failed state. When the system is in completely
failed state, it is repaired by a general distribution for insulation paper whereas insulation oil is
repaired by using two different types of distributions, namely, general and exponential. These
two repairs are coupled by using Gumbel–Hougaard family of copula. The coupling of repair in
the study of transformer has never been considered in the past. The proposed system
(transformer) has been studied to evaluate the reliability characteristic using Markovian
process with Gumbel–Hougaard family of copula, supplementary variable technique and
Laplace transforms. The reliability measures such as transition state probability, reliability,
mean time to failure (MTTF) and sensitivity have been obtained. Transition diagram and its
descriptions of states of the proposed system are shown in Figure 1 and Table I, respectively.
Let us discuss in brief the key failures (parameters) in insulation oil condition and
insulation paper condition and also understand the parameters failure mechanism in power
transformers. As mentioned earlier, the degradation of oil and paper insulation depends on
BDV, DF, IFT, MC and BDV, DOP, MC, FC, respectively.
1.2 Insulating oil

Insulating oil is commonly known as transformer oil; it is obtained by fractional distillation
and consequent action of crude petroleum. Transformer oil serves in two forms: first, it
dissipates heat from the winding and other active materials of the transformer as a coolant
and it also works as an insulator in power transformer. Transformer oil prevents the
components from the direct contact of the oxygen; due to this, oxidation process is reduced.
Factors affecting the property of insulating oil:
(1) DF – aging occurs in transformer oil with its service life (Martin et al., 2017).
Atmospheric oxygen reacts with the transformer oil whenever it enters in the tank of
the transformer. Due to this reaction, not only oil is oxidized but also water particles
are formed. DF also loses the heat through transformer insulation; hence it is
expected to be low for a good insulating material. The IEEE recommended the
standards of dielectric DF of mineral oil in the research articles (Martin et al., 2017;
Martin et al., 2015).
(2) MC – moisture particles inside the insulating oil degrades the insulating property of
the transformer oil. It also deteriorates the solid insulation of the transformer such as
paper insulation. MC is produced in the transformer oil due to oxidation and
hydrolysis or it can come from the atmosphere. If the water is formed within the
tank, the electric strength of transformer oil will be reduced (Ashkezari et al., 2013).
IJQRM P25
P33
3′P P34 B
4′P P26
C 3′P
C
P35 B
4′P
P18 P19 3′P P27 P36
P1 P17
30 30 4′P 3′P

30
BDV
C C 30
C P28 B
P9 P10 C P20
P2 P11
MC BDV MC 4′P
IFT
C P12
DF
P3
IFT
C P0
P4
A ′FC
DF P16 C
′MC 40
P5 ′BDV ′DOP 3′P P32
P40
B 30
P24
A ′MC P15
P6 ′BDV C
P14 3′P 40
A B
P13
P7 ′DOP P23 P31 30
P39
C
′FC 3′P
B
3′P
P8 A 40
40 P22 P30 30
Figure 1. P38
Transition state P21 C
diagram B P29 30
P37
(3) BDV – BDV of insulating oil specifies to give the withstand capability of oil against
various electrical stress without any failure Gray (2009). Moisture particles or other
contamination are the main causes of the reduction of BDV of insulating oil
(Newesely, 2005). Therefore, reduction in the BDV may indicate the sludge formation
or presence of other dust particles in transformer oil (Ashkezari et al., 2012). A high
value of BDV is recommended for any kind of insulating oil to reduce the failure risk
of transformer (Martin et al., 2017).
(4) IFT – IFT is defined as the intermolecular attractive force between transformer oil
and water. Due to the aging process, IFT between transformer oil and water reduces.
The oil must be changed when the value of IFT is reduced from a prescribed value.
IFT of insulating oil must be high for large service span of the transformer.
1.3 Insulating paper

Insulating paper is the most essential component in the insulation system of the transformer
(Arshad et al., 2014). The statement is much admired that the life-span of the transformer
resolute by life of the insulating paper. The paper’s tensile strength determines its capability
States Descriptions Status
The effect of
transformer
S0 The state when all the parameters of the system are in working Good parameters
condition
Si (i ¼ 1, 2, 3, 4) The states when the ith parameter BDV/MC/IFT/DF, respectively, of Completely failed
insulation oil fails
Si (i ¼ 5, 6, 7, 8) The states when the ith parameter BDV/MC/DOP/FC, respectively, Completely failed
of insulation paper fails
Si (i ¼ 9, 10, 11, 12) The state when one of the ith parameters BDV/MC/IFT/DF, Partially failed
respectively, of insulation oil fails
Si (i ¼ 13, 14, 15, 16) The state when one of the ith parameters BDV/MC/DOP/FC of Partially failed
insulation paper fails
Si (i ¼ 17, 18, 19, 20) The state when anyone of the ith parameters (BDV/MC/IFT/DF) of Completely failed
insulating oil fails
Si (i ¼ 21, 22, 23, 24) The state when anyone of the ith parameters (BDV/MC/DOP/FC) of Completely failed
insulating paper fails
Si (i ¼ 25, 26, 27, 28) The state when insulating oil is affected by failure of any ith Partially failed
parameter BDV/MC/DOP/FC of insulating paper of the system
resulting into degraded failure
Si (i ¼ 29, 30, 31, 32) The state when insulating paper is affected by failure of any ith Partially failed
parameter, i.e. either BDV/MC/IFT/DF of insulating oil of the system
Si (i ¼ 33, 34, 35, 36) The state when anyone of the ith parameters (BDV/MC/DOP/FC) of Completely failed Table I.
insulating paper fails Descriptions of states
Si (i ¼ 37, 38, 39, 40) The state when anyone of the ith parameters (BDV/MC/IFT/DF) of Completely failed used in transition
insulating oil fails diagram
to resist short circuits (Hohlein and Kachler, 2005). Insulating paper is used for twisting wire
as well as in the form of strips of insulating paper between twisting layers for power
transformers. Paper insulation provides the mechanical support to the transformer winding
as well as it prevents the windings from short circuits.
Factors affecting the property of insulating paper:
(1) MC– the presence of moisture reduces the dielectric strength of insulating paper,
which may become a cause of transformer failure. If the water content of the paper
exceeds from 2 percent by weight when the paper insulation adsorbs/desorbs water
from the oil when the oil cools/heats, the paper insulation may also become wet as
stated in an IEEE guide ( Jahromi et al., 2009). MC of insulating paper must be low
because the rising temperature creates bubbles and these bubbles move toward
winding which may result into a short circuit or explosion (Martin et al., 2017).
(2) FC – furans are strongly dependent on MCs in insulating oil and cellulose (Ashkezari
et al., 2013). Furanic compounds are produced due to the degradation of cellulosic
materials used in the insulating paper of the power transformer. When they react
with CO2 then moisture produces and it degrades the insulating paper. Degradation
of paper is a main cause of generation of furans in transformer oil. Quantification of
the FC of insulating oil can be used for a bulkiness evaluation of the DOP of the
insulating paper (Ashkezari et al., 2013). Evaluation of FC might serve as an early
caution of a disastrous failure if ignored.
(3) BDV – breakdown strength is an important electrical property of insulating paper
(Wang et al., 2011), namely, it provides the electrical strength to the paper. The values
of the applied voltage at which paper losses its dielectric strength and due to which
the paper fails to insulate across the windings within the transformer tank. This leads
to the fluctuation in voltage over the baring limit of the transformer and results into
the failure of the transformer. So, the BDV of the paper insulation must be high.
IJQRM (4) DOP – for a good insulation in transformer windings, DOP of paper must be high because
of the strength of paper is quantified by paper’s DOP. The DOP of a recent, unused, of the
paper within transformer is generally around 1,000 which can reduce to 200. At this point,
the paper becomes fragile and loses its mechanical strength (Lelekakis et al., 2012).
2. Assumptions
• Originally, the system (transformer) is in absolutely good state, i.e., all parameters are
in a desirable condition.
• The transformer has three possible states: good, partially and completely failed.
• Transformer has two types of failure: partial and complete.
• The transformer is repaired when it is in a complete failed state.

• The system is having two subsystems (insulation oil and paper). Both the
subsystems are connected in series and may fail partially or completely. If any
subsystem completely fails, the whole system fails.
• At t ¼ 0, insulation oil–paper is in perfect condition, and t W0 they start operating
with their parameters.
• The failure of system may occur due to problem BDV, MC, DF, IFT in insulation
oil and BDV, MC, DOP, FC in insulation paper, which are the parameters of
the subsystem.
• Due to the partial failure of any parameter of insulation oil/paper the system fails
partially. The system remains in partial failure state due to any further partial failure
in paper/oil. This failure may lead to the reduction in the life of the transformer.
• Transitions from complete failure state Sj (where j ¼ 5, 6, 7, 8, 21, 22, 23, 24, 33, 34, 35,
36) to initial state S0 follow the general distribution.
• Transitions from the completely failed states Sk, where k ¼ 1, 2, 3, 4, 17, 18, 19, 20, 37,
38, 39, 40 to initial state S0 follow two different distributions incorporating Gumbel-
Hougaard family of copula.
• System is as good as new after repair.
The notations used in the model are listed in Table II.
λBDV/λMC/λIFT/λDF/λO Failure rate due to breakdown voltage/moisture content/inter facial tension/

dissipation factor
l0BDV =l0M C =l0DOP =l0FC =l0P Failure rate due to breakdown voltage/moisture content/degree of polymerization/
furanic content
λBDV/λMC/λIFT/λDF/λO The different failure rates corresponding to insulating oil in the transformer
l0BDV =l0M C =l0DOP =l0FC =l0P The different failure rates corresponding to insulating paper in the transformer
ϕA(x) Replacement rate of insulating paper (state S5, S6, S7, S8)
ϕB(x) Replacement rate of insulating paper (state S33, S34 S35 S36)
ϕC(x) Repair rate in state Sk (k ¼ 1, 2, 3, 4, 17, 18, 19, 20, 37, 38, 39, 40) in the system with
the elapsed repair time x
Table II. pi(t) The probability that at instant time t the system is in Si state, where, i ¼ 0–40
Descriptions of pi ðsÞ Laplace transform of pi(t)
notations used in ϕ(x) Rate of coupled repair
transition diagram x Elapsed repair time
Letting u1 ¼ ex and u2 ¼ ϕC(x), the expression for joint probability (complete failure The effect of
state Sk (k ¼ 1, 2, 3, 4, 17, 18, 19, 20, 37, 38, 39, 40) to good working state S0) coupled by transformer
Gumbel–Hougaard family of copula is given by: parameters
h y i
fðxÞ ¼ exp ðxÞy þ log fC ðxÞ :1=y
3. Mathematical models formulation

By probability consideration and continuity influence, the following difference-differential
equations leading the performance of the system are obtained:
Z 1
d
þ 2 l0BDV þ l0M C þ l0DOP þ l0FC þ lBDV þ lM C þlI FT þ lDF p0 ðt Þ ¼ p1 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdx
dt 0
Z 1 Z 1 Z 1 Z 1
þ p2 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdx þ p3 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdx þ p4 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdxþ p5 ðx; t ÞfA ðxÞdx
0 0 0 0
Z 1 Z 1 Z 1 Z 1
þ p6 ðx; t ÞfA ðxÞdxþ p7 ðx; t ÞfA ðxÞdxþ p8 ðx; t ÞfA ðxÞdx þ p17 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdx
0 0 0 0
Z 1 Z 1 Z 1
þ p18 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdxþ p19 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdxþ p20 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdxþ p21 ðx; t ÞfD ðxÞdx
0 0 0
Z 1 Z 1 Z 1 Z 1
þ p22 ðx; t ÞfD ðxÞdxþ p23 ðx; t ÞfD ðxÞdx þ p24 ðx; t ÞfD ðxÞdxþ p33 ðx; t ÞfB ðxÞdx
0 0 0 0
Z 1 Z 1 Z 1 Z 1
þ p34 ðx; t ÞfB ðxÞdxþ p35 ðx; t ÞfB ðxÞdx þ p36 ðx; t ÞfB ðxÞdxþ p37 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdx
0 0 0 0
Z 1 Z 1 Z 1
þ p38 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdxþ p39 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdxþ p40 ðx; t ÞfC ðxÞdx (1)
0 0 0

@ @
þ þfC p1 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (2)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC p2 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (3)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC p3 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (4)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC p4 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (5)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfA p5 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (6)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfA p6 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (7)
@t @x

IJQRM @ @
þ þfA p7 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (8)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfA p8 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (9)
@t @x

d
þ4l0P þ3l0 p9 ðt Þ ¼ lBDV p0 ðt Þ; (10)
dt

d 0
þ4lP þ3l0 p10 ðt Þ ¼ lM C p0 ðt Þ; (11)
dt

d
þ4l0P þ3l0 p11 ðt Þ ¼ lIFT p0 ðt Þ; (12)
dt

d
þ4l0P þ3l0 p12 ðt Þ ¼ lDF p0 ðt Þ; (13)
dt

d
þ3l0P þ4l0 p13 ðt Þ ¼ l0FC p0 ðt Þ; (14)
dt

d
þ3lP þ4l0 p14 ðt Þ ¼ l0DOP p0 ðt Þ;
0
(15)
dt

d
þ3l0P þ4l0 p15 ðt Þ ¼ l0M C p0 ðt Þ; (16)
dt

d
þ3l0P þ4l0 p16 ðt Þ ¼ l0BDV p0 ðt Þ; (17)
dt

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p17 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (18)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p18 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (19)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p19 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (20)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p20 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (21)
@t @x

@ @ The effect of
þ þfD ðxÞ p21 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0 (22)
@t @x transformer
parameters

@ @
þ þfD ðxÞ p22 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (23)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfD ðxÞ p23 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (24)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfD ðxÞ p24 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (25)
@t @x

d
þ3l0P p25 ðt Þ ¼ 4l0P p9 ðt Þ; (26)
dt

d
þ3l0P p26 ðt Þ ¼ 4l0P p10 ðt Þ; (27)
dt

d
þ3l0P p27 ðt Þ ¼ 4l0P p11 ðt Þ; (28)
dt

d
þ3lP p28 ðt Þ ¼ 4l0P p12 ðt Þ;
0
(29)
dt

d
þ3lO p29 ðt Þ ¼ 4lO p13 ðt Þ; (30)
dt

d
þ3lO p30 ðt Þ ¼ 4lO p14 ðt Þ; (31)
dt

d
þ3lO p31 ðt Þ ¼ 4lO p15 ðt Þ; (32)
dt

d
þ3lO p32 ðt Þ ¼ 4l0 p16 ðt Þ; (33)
dt

@ @
þ þfB ðxÞ p33 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (34)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfB ðxÞ p34 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (35)
@t @x

IJQRM @ @
þ þfB ðxÞ p35 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (36)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfB ðxÞ p36 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (37)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p37 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (38)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p38 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (39)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p39 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0; (40)
@t @x

@ @
þ þfC ðxÞ p40 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0: (41)
@t @x
Boundary conditions:
p1 ð0; t Þ ¼ lBDV :p0 ðt Þ; (42)
p2 ð0; t Þ ¼ lM C :p0 ðt Þ; (43)
p3 ð0; t Þ ¼ lI FT :p0 ðt Þ; (44)
p4 ð0; t Þ ¼ lDF :p0 ðt Þ; (45)
p5 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0BDV :p0 ðt Þ; (46)
p6 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0M C :p0 ðt Þ; (47)
p7 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0DOP :p0 ðt Þ; (48)
p8 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0FC :p0 ðt Þ; (49)
p17 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p9 ðt Þ; (50)
p18 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p10 ðt Þ; (51)
p19 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p11 ðt Þ; (52)
p20 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p12 ðt Þ; (53)

p21 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p13 ðt Þ; (54) The effect of
transformer
p22 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p14 ðt Þ; (55) parameters
p23 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p15 ðt Þ; (56)
p24 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p16 ðt Þ; (57)
p33 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p25 ðt Þ; (58)

p34 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p26 ðt Þ; (59)
p35 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p26 ðt Þ; (60)
p36 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p28 ðt Þ; (61)
p37 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p29 ðt Þ; (62)
p38 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p30 ðt Þ; (63)
p39 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p31 ðt Þ; (64)
p40 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p32 ðt Þ: (65)

Initial condition:
P0(0) ¼ 1 and at t ¼ 0 other state probabilities are 0.
4. Solution of model
Taking Laplace transformation of Equations (1)–(65) and on further simplifications, one can
obtain transition state probabilities of the system as:
1
pO ðsÞ ¼ ; (66)
C ðsÞ

1S c ðsÞ
p1 ðsÞ ¼ lBDV P 0 ðsÞ; (67)
s

1S c ðsÞ
p2 ðsÞ ¼ lM C P 0 ðsÞ; (68)
s

1S c ðsÞ
p3 ðsÞ ¼ lI FT p0 ðsÞ; (69)
s

IJQRM 1S c ðsÞ
p4 ðsÞ ¼ lDF p0 ðsÞ; (70)
s

1S A ðsÞ
p5 ðsÞ ¼ l0BDV p0 ðsÞ; (71)
s

1S A ðsÞ
p6 ðsÞ ¼ l0M C p0 ðsÞ; (72)
s

1S A ðsÞ
p7 ðsÞ ¼ l0DOP p0 ðsÞ; (73)

1S A ðsÞ
p8 ðsÞ ¼ l0FC p0 ðsÞ; (74)
s
lBDV
p9 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (75)
sþ4l0P þ3lO O
lM C
p10 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (76)
s þ4l0P þ3lO O
lI FT
p11 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (77)
s þ4l0P þ3lO O
lDF
p12 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (78)
s þ4l0P þ3lO O
l0BDV
p13 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (79)
s þ3l0P þ4lO O
l0M C
p14 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (80)
s þ3l0P þ4lO O
l0FC
p15 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (81)
s þ3l0P þ4lO O
l0DOP
p16 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (82)
s þ3l0P þ4lO O

1S c ðsÞ lBDV
p17 ðsÞ ¼ 3lO pO ðsÞ; (83)
s s þ4l0P þ3lO

1S c ðsÞ lM C The effect of
s sþ4l0P þ3lO transformer
parameters

1S c ðsÞ lIFT
s sþ4l0P þ3lO

1S c ðsÞ lDF
s sþ4l0P þ3lO

1S D ðsÞ l0BDV
p21 ðsÞ ¼ 3l0P pO ðsÞ; (87)
s s þ3l0P þ4lO

1S D ðsÞ l0M C
s s þ3l0P þ4lO

1S D ðsÞ l0FC
s s þ3l0P þ4lO

1S D ðsÞ l0DOP
s s þ3l0P þ4lO
4l0P lBDV
p25 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (91)
s þ3l0P s þ4l0P þ3lO O
4l0P lM C
p26 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (92)
4l0P lI FT
p27 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (93)
4l0P lDF
p28 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (94)
4lO l0FC
p29 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (95)
ðsþ3lO Þ sþ3l0P þ 4lO O
4lO l0DOP
p30 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (96)
4lO l0M C
p31 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (97)
IJQRM 4lO l0BDV
p32 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (98)
ðsþ3lO Þ s þ3l0P þ4lO O

12l02 1S B ðsÞ lBDV
p33 ðsÞ ¼ P
p ðsÞ; (99)
sþ3l0P s sþ4l0P þ3lO O

12l02 1S B ðsÞ lM C
p34 ðsÞ ¼ P
p ðsÞ; (100)

12l02 1S B ðsÞ lI FT
p35 ðsÞ ¼ P
0 0 pO ðsÞ; (101)
P þ3lO
sþ3lP s sþ4l

12l02 1S B ðsÞ lDF
p36 ðsÞ ¼ P
p ðsÞ; (102)

12l2o 1S c ðsÞ l0BDV
p37 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (103)
ðsþ3lO Þ s sþ3l0P þ4lO O

12l2o 1S c ðsÞ l0M C
p38 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (104)

12l2o 1S c ðsÞ l0FC
p39 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (105)

12l2o 1S c ðsÞ l0DOP
p40 ðsÞ ¼ p ðsÞ; (106)
where:

C ðsÞ ¼ sþ 2 lBDV þ lM C þ lI FT þlFC þ l0BDV þl0M C þ l0I FT þ l0FC ðlBDV þlM C þlI FT þlFC ÞS c ðsÞ
0
3lO ðlBDV þ lM C þ lI FT þlFC Þ 12l2o lBDV þ l0MC þ l0IFT þl0FC
þ S ðsÞþ S c ðsÞ
sþ 4l0P þ3lO s þ3l0P þ4lO
c
ðs þ3lO Þ

0 0 0 0
3l0P l0BDV þl0M C þl0I FT þl0FC
lBDV þ lM C þ lI FT þlFC S A ðsÞ S D ðsÞ
sþ3l0P þ4lO
12l02 ðlBDV þlM C þlI FT þlFC Þ

P
S B ðsÞ:
sþ3l0P sþ4l0P þ3lO
Also up (working and partially working) and down ( failed) states’ probabilities of the
proposed system are given by:
P up ðsÞ ¼ P 0 ðsÞ þP 9 ðsÞ þP 10 ðsÞþP 11 ðsÞþP 12 ðsÞ þP 13 ðsÞþP 14 ðsÞþP 15 ðsÞ þP 16 ðsÞþP 25 ðsÞ
þP 26 ðsÞ þP 27 ðsÞþ P 28 ðsÞþP 29 ðsÞ þP 30 ðsÞþ P 31 ðsÞþP 32 ðsÞ

28 The effect of
< c1 c2 1 4l0 c1 transformer
¼ 4 1þ 0 þ 0 þ p parameters
: sþ4lp þ3lo s þ3lp þ 4lo s þ4l0p þ3lo sþ3l0p
9 3
1 4lo c2 =
þ p ðsÞ5: (107)
sþ3l0 þ4l ðsþ3lo Þ; o
o
p
P down ðsÞ ¼ P 1 ðsÞþP 2 ðsÞþP 3 ðsÞþP 4 ðsÞþP 5 ðsÞþP 6 ðsÞ þP 7 ðsÞ þP 8 ðsÞ þP 17 ðsÞþP 18 ðsÞ
þP 19 ðsÞþP 20 ðsÞ þP 21 ðsÞþP 22 ðsÞþP 23 ðsÞ þP 24 ðsÞþP 33 ðsÞþP 34 ðsÞ þP 35 ðsÞ
þP 36 ðsÞþ P 37 ðsÞþP 38 ðsÞ þP 39 ðsÞþ P 40 ðsÞ
(
1S c ðsÞ 1S A ðsÞ 3lo c1 1S c ðsÞ
¼ c1 þ c2 þ
s s sþ4l0p þ3lo s

3l0p c2 1S D ðsÞ 12l02
p c1 1S B s
þ þ
sþ3l0p þ4lo s sþ4l0 þ3lo sþ3l0 s
p p

12l2o c2 1S C ðsÞ

þ P o ðsÞ: (108)
sþ4lo þ3l0p ðsþ3lo Þ s
where:
c1 ¼ λBDV+λMC+λIFT+λDF and c2 ¼ l0BDV þl0M C þl0DOP þl0FC .
From Equations (107) and (108), we have:
P Up þP down ¼ 1=s:
5. Particular case
When repair follows exponential distribution, then:
fA ðxÞ fB ðxÞ fD ðxÞ
S 1 ðsÞ ¼ ; S 2 ðsÞ ¼ ; S 3 ðsÞ ¼ ;
s þfA ðxÞ sþfB ðxÞ sþfD ðxÞ
h y i1=y
y
fD ðxÞ exp x þ log f C ðx Þ
S 3 ðsÞ ¼ ; S 4 ðsÞ ¼ h y i1=y : (109)
sþfD ðxÞ
s þexp xy þ log fC ðxÞ
6. Reliability analysis of the transformer

Let the failure rates of the transformer corresponding to different parameters are λBDV ¼ 0.1,
λMC ¼ 0.2, λIFT ¼ 0.3, λDF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0M C ¼ 0:2; l0I FT ¼ 0:3; l0DF ¼ 0:4;lO ¼ 0:2;
l0P ¼ 0:3 and repair rates: ϕ ¼ 0, θ ¼ 1 and x ¼ 1. Putting these values in the expression of
Pup(s) and then taking Laplace inverse, we get the reliability in terms of t as given
in Equation (110). Substituting the considered values in Equation (110), one can obtain
Table III. Consequently, Figure 2 represents the relation between reliability R(t) and time t:
Rðt Þ ¼ P up ðt Þ ¼ 0:3889268062e4t þ0:2139037433e0:6t 0:1515151515e1:8t

þ0:4301075269e0:9t þ0:1185770751e1:7t : (110)
IJQRM Time (t) Reliability (R (t))
0 1
1 0.296002
2 0.135471
3 0.064305
4 0.031176
5 0.015433
6 0.007789
7 0.003998
Table III. 8 0.002082
Time (t) vs 9 0.001097
reliability (R (t)) 10 0.000583
1.0
Reliability(R(t))
0.8
Reliability(R(t))
0.6
0.4
0.2
Figure 2. 0.0
Time vs reliability 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time
7. MTTF of the transformer

MTTF of the transformer can be obtained by:
MTTF ¼ lim P up ðsÞ:

s-0
If repair rates follow exponential distribution, i.e., using Equation (109) and letting the repair
rate ϕ ¼ 0, θ ¼ 1 and x ¼ 1. Now using Equations (107) and (109) and taking its Laplace
inverse, we can determine the variation of MTTF with respect to different parameters as
discussed below:
(1) Setting λMC ¼ 0.2, λIFT ¼ 0.3, λDF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0M C ¼ 0:2; l0DOP ¼ 0:3; l0FC ¼
0:4; λO ¼ 0.2, l0P ¼ 0:3 and varying λBDV as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, one
can get the variation of MTTF with respect of λBDV. The obtained values are given
in Table IV.
(2) Assuming λBDV ¼ 0.1, λIFT ¼ 0.3, λDF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0M C ¼ 0:2; l0DOP ¼ 0:3;
λO ¼ 0.2, l0P ¼ 0:3 and changing λMC as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, we can
see the variation of MTTF with respect to λMC.
MTTF wrt
The effect of
Failure rate λBDV λMC λIFT λDF λO transformer
parameters
0.1 0.917211 0.931373 0.947107 0.964693 1.087607
0.2 0.904399 0.917211 0.931373 0.947107 0.917211
0.3 0.892751 0.904399 0.917211 0.931373 0.805556
0.4 0.882116 0.892751 0.904399 0.917211 0.726389
0.5 0.872367 0.882116 0.892751 0.904399 0.667199
0.6 0.863399 0.872367 0.882116 0.892751 0.621212
0.7 0.85512 0.863399 0.872367 0.882116 0.584425 Table IV.
0.8 0.847454 0.85512 0.863399 0.872367 0.554313 Variation in MTTF
0.9 0.840336 0.847454 0.85512 0.863399 0.529202 wrt failure rates of
1 0.833709 0.840336 0.847454 0.85512 0.507937 insulation oil
(3) Lettingλ BDV ¼ 0.1, λ MC ¼ 0.2, λ DF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0M C ¼ 0:2; l0DOP ¼
0:3; l0FC ¼ 0:4; λO ¼ 0.2, l0P ¼ 0:3 and altering λIFT as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7,
0.8, 0.9, 1, one can determine the variation of MTTF with respect to λIFT.
(4) Assuming λ BDV ¼ 0.1, λ MC ¼ 0.2, λ DF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0M C ¼ 0:2; l0DOP ¼
0:3; l0FC ¼ 0:4; λO ¼ 0.2, l0P ¼ 0:3 and changing λDF as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6,
0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, we can get the variation of MTTF with respect toλDF.
(5) Setting λBDV ¼ 0.1, λMC ¼ 0.2, λIFT ¼ 0.3, λDF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0M C ¼ 0:2; l0DOP ¼
0:3 lFC ¼ 0:4; l0P ¼ 0:3 and varying l0O as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, one
can find the variation of MTTF with respect to λO.
The variation of MTTF with respect to different parameters obtained in the cases
of (1), (2), (3), (4) and (5) are listed in Table IV and shown in Figure 3.
(6) Setting λBDV ¼ 0.1, λMC ¼ 0.2, λIFT ¼ 0.3, λDF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0DOP ¼ 0:3; l0FC ¼
0:4; lO ¼ 0:2; l0P ¼ 0:3 and varying l0BDV as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1,
one can obtain the variation of MTTF with respect to l0BDV .
BDV
1.1
MC
IFT
1.0
DF
O
0.9
MTTF
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.5
Figure 3.
Failure rate of MTTF
0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 vs oil parameters
Failure rates of insulation oil
IJQRM (7) Setting λBDV ¼ 0.1, λMC ¼ 0.2, λIFT ¼ 0.3, λDF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0DOP ¼ 0:3; l0FC ¼
0:4; lO ¼ 0:2; l0P ¼ 0:3 and varying l0M C as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1,
one can obtain the variation of MTTF with respect to l0M C .
(8) Setting λBDV ¼ 0.1, λMC ¼ 0.2, λIFT ¼ 0.3, λDF ¼ 0.4, l0BDV ¼ 0:1; l0M C ¼ 0:2; l0FC ¼
0:4; lO ¼ 0:2; l0P ¼ 0:3 and varying l0DOP as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1,
one can get the change of MTTF with respect to l0DOP .
0:3 lO ¼ 0:2; l0P ¼ 0:3 and varying l0FC as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, we
can see how MTTF changes with respect to l0FC .
0:3 lFC ¼ 0:4; lO ¼ 0:2 and varying l0P as 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.4, 0.5, 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, 0.9, 1, one
can obtain the variation of MTTF with respect to l0P .

The variation of MTTF in the cases of (6), (7), (8), (9) and (10) with respect to different failure
rates is listed in Table V and shown in Figure 4.
MTTF wrt
Failure rate l0BDV l0M C l0DOP l0FC l0P
0.1 0.917211 0.929366 0.942871 0.957965 1.363636

0.2 0.906214 0.917211 0.929366 0.942871 1.083333
0.3 0.896217 0.906214 0.917211 0.929366 0.917211
0.4 0.887089 0.896217 0.906214 0.917211 0.806818
0.5 0.878722 0.887089 0.896217 0.906214 0.727982
0.6 0.871024 0.878722 0.887089 0.896217 0.668803
Table V. 0.7 0.863918 0.871024 0.878722 0.887089 0.622718
Variation in MTTF 0.8 0.857339 0.863918 0.871024 0.878722 0.5858
wrt failure rates of 0.9 0.851229 0.857339 0.863918 0.871024 0.555556
insulation paper 1 0.845541 0.851229 0.857339 0.863918 0.53032
′BDV
1.4
′MC
′DOP
1.2 ′FC
′P
MTTF
1.0
0.8
0.6
Figure 4.
Failure rate of MTTF 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0
vs paper parameters
Failure rates of insulation paper
8. Sensitivity analysis The effect of
The sensitivity of the network with respect to parameters η can be obtained by Sη ¼ ∂R/∂η, where transformer
η ¼ λBDV /λMC /λIFT /λFC /λO l0BDV =l0M C =l0IFT =l0FC =l0P . The computed sensitivities with respect parameters
to different parameters are listed in Tables VI and VII. The same is also shown in Figures 5 and 6.
9. Conclusion
In the current study, different reliability measures have been evaluated for the complex
system (transformer) using different probability states along with supplementary variable
technique incorporating different types of failure with the help of Gumbel–Hougaard family
of copula. The reliability measures obtained are state transition probabilities, reliability,
MTTF and sensitivity with respect to various parameters with the help of the proposed
method unlike done in the past.
Figure 2 provides the deviation of reliability with respect to time. By observing the
figure, one can observe that it decreases from its initial stage with respect to time.
By critically examining Figure 3, one can conclude that MTTF of the system decreases
from 0.917211 to 0.833709, from 0.931373 to 0.840336, from 0.947107 to 0.847454, from
0.964693 to 0.85512 and from 1.087607 to 0.507937 with respect to oil parameters λBDV, λMC,
λIFT, λDF and λO, respectively, in an almost same manner for the considered values. In other
words, MTTF of the system has been obtained in the order: MTTF wrt λDF WMTTF wrt
λIFT WMTTF wrt λMC WMTTF wrt λBDV WMTTF wrt λO. So, MTTF of the system is
highest and lowest with respect to λDF and λO, respectively.
Sensitivity wrt
Time BDV MC IFT DF Oil
0 −3.46945E−17 −4.85723E−17 −1.04083E−16 −2.43196 2.22045E−16

1 −0.10202541 −0.10202541 −0.702630193 −1.11431 −0.26814385
2 −0.056003893 −0.056003893 −0.382230239 −0.45926 −0.29680938
3 −0.029331787 −0.029331787 −0.178084016 −0.19132 −0.23968608
4 −0.015084251 −0.015084251 −0.07836599 −0.0806 −0.17613977
5 −0.007787694 −0.007787694 −0.033991066 −0.03437 −0.12290751
6 −0.004062048 −0.004062048 −0.014795751 −0.01486 −0.08266563 Table VI.
7 −0.002141238 −0.002141238 −0.006518796 −0.00653 −0.0540533 Sensitivity wrt
8 −0.00113905 −0.00113905 −0.002921128 −0.00292 −0.03456756 different parameters
9 −0.000610411 −0.000610411 −0.001335339 −0.00134 −0.02171618 of insulating oil of
10 −0.000329013 −0.000329013 −0.000623813 −0.00062 −0.01344661 transformer
Sensitivity wrt
Time BDV MC DOP FC Paper
0 −1.04083E−17 2.08167E−17 2.22045E−16 2.77556E−16 −2.22045E−16

1 −0.101319837 −0.10131984 −0.71150957 −0.71150957 −0.337472403
2 −0.055023571 −0.05502357 −0.39181532 −0.39181532 −0.376562382
3 −0.027254545 −0.02725454 −0.17825656 −0.17825656 −0.263795685
4 −0.012970533 −0.01297053 −0.07667203 −0.07667203 −0.156312593
5 −0.006158365 −0.00615836 −0.03243863 −0.03243863 −0.08545477
6 −0.002962286 −0.00296229 −0.01371004 −0.01371004 −0.044710595 Table VII.
7 −0.001451185 −0.00145119 −0.00583131 −0.00583131 −0.022815713 Sensitivity wrt
8 −0.000724608 −0.00072461 −0.00250716 −0.00250716 −0.011483845 different parameters
9 −0.000368323 −0.00036832 −0.00109334 −0.00109334 −0.005743504 of insulating paper of
10 −0.00019018 −0.00019018 −0.000485 −0.000485 −0.00286914 transformer
IJQRM From Figure 4, we can easily visualize that MTTF of the system with respect to paper
parameters decreases from 0.917211 to 0.845541, from 0.929366 to 0.851229, from 0.942871
to 0.857339 and from 1.363636 to 0.53032 with respect to l0BDV , lMC 0 0
, lDOP and l0P ,
respectively, in a same manner for the considered values, but the MTTF of the system
with respect to l0FC varies from 0.957965 to 0.863918. MTTF of the system has been
obtained in the order: MTTF wrt l0FC W MTTF wrt l0DOP W MTTF wrt l0MC W MTTF wrt
l0BDV W MTTF wrt l0P . So, MTTF of the system is highest with respect to l0FC and lowest
with respect to l0P .
Figure 5 shows that the sensitivity of the transformer corresponding to different
parameters of insulating oil. Critical examination of the figure reveals that
sensitivity of transformer related to the parameter λDF is increasing exponentially with
respect to time. Moreover, it is observed that sensitivity of the system corresponding to
the parameters λBDV and λMC first decreases and then increases slowly whereas sensitivity
corresponding to both λIFT and λO instantly decreases then increases slowly with
respect to time.
Similarly, Figure 6 shows the sensitivity of the transformer with respect to different
parameters of insulating paper. Critical examination of the figure reveals that sensitivity of
transformer related to the parameter l0P is decreasing and then increasing exponentially
with respect to time. Moreover, it is observed that sensitivity of the system corresponding to
the parameters l0BDV and l0MC first decreases and then slowly increases whereas with
respect to l0DOP and l0FC instantly decreases then slowly increases.
Figures 5 and 6 reveal that the transformer is more sensitive with respect to λBDV and l0MC for
insulating oil and paper, respectively. Therefore, the values of BDV and MC must be close to the
limit recommended in IEEE standards otherwise the chances of failure of system may increase.
The study suggests that a system manager can easily recognize the reliability and
MTTF of the transformer variations with respect to different parameters. Sensitivity
analysis of the transformer will help engineers and system managers to ensure the values of
various considered parameters under limit as suggested in IEEE standard, otherwise
system may get defected.
0.0
–0.5
–1.0
Sensitivity
BDV
MC
–1.5 IFT
DF
O
–2.0
–2.5
Figure 5.
Sensitivity (wrt oil
parameters) vs time 0 2 4 6 8 10
Time
0.1 The effect of
0.0
transformer
parameters
–0.1
–0.2
Sensitivity
–0.3 ′BDV
′MC
–0.4
′DOP
–0.5 ′FC
′P
–0.6
–0.7
–0.8 Figure 6.
0 2 4 6 8 10 Sensitivity (wrt paper
parameters) vs time
Time
References
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Appendix 1
The probability of system to be in State 1 is given by following difference equation:

P 1 ðx þD; t þ DÞ ¼ P 1 ðx; t Þ 1fC D ;
P 1 ðx þ D; t þ DÞP 1 ðx; t Þ ¼ fC DP 1 ðx; t Þ;
P 1 ðx þ D; t þ DÞP 1 ðx; t Þ
¼ fC P 1 ðx; t Þ;
D
P 1 ðx þD; t þDÞP 1 ðx þ D; t Þ þ P 1 ðx þ D; t ÞP 1 ðx; t Þ

lim ¼ fC P 1 ðx; t Þ: (A1)
t-0 D
On taking limit in Equation (A1), we get differential equation as shown below:

@=@t þ @=@x þfC ðxÞ P 1 ðx; t Þ ¼ 0:
Similarly, we can find out the difference equations for all remaining states. With the help of difference
equation, we have derived the differential Equations (1)–(48).
Corresponding author
Neelam Chantola can be contacted at: neel.chantola@gmail.com
For instructions on how to order reprints of this article, please visit our website:
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International Journal of Quality & Reliability Management

The effect of transformer parameters on reliability assessment with the help of

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assessment with the help of

1.1 Problem description

1.2 Insulating oil

30 30 4′P 3′P

1.3 Insulating paper

• The transformer is repaired when it is in a complete failed state.

λBDV/λMC/λIFT/λDF/λO Failure rate due to breakdown voltage/moisture content/inter facial tension/

3. Mathematical models formulation

p2 ð0; t Þ ¼ lM C :p0 ðt Þ; (43)

p3 ð0; t Þ ¼ lI FT :p0 ðt Þ; (44)

p4 ð0; t Þ ¼ lDF :p0 ðt Þ; (45)

p5 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0BDV :p0 ðt Þ; (46)

p6 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0M C :p0 ðt Þ; (47)

p7 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0DOP :p0 ðt Þ; (48)

p8 ð0; t Þ ¼ l0FC :p0 ðt Þ; (49)

p17 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p9 ðt Þ; (50)

p18 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p10 ðt Þ; (51)

p19 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p11 ðt Þ; (52)

p20 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p12 ðt Þ; (53)

p23 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p15 ðt Þ; (56)

p24 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p16 ðt Þ; (57)

p33 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p25 ðt Þ; (58)

p34 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p26 ðt Þ; (59)

p35 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p26 ðt Þ; (60)

p36 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3l0P :p28 ðt Þ; (61)

p37 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p29 ðt Þ; (62)

p38 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p30 ðt Þ; (63)

p39 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p31 ðt Þ; (64)

p40 ð0; t Þ ¼ 3lO :p32 ðt Þ: (65)

12l02 ðlBDV þlM C þlI FT þlFC Þ

þP 26 ðsÞ þP 27 ðsÞþ P 28 ðsÞþP 29 ðsÞ þP 30 ðsÞþ P 31 ðsÞþP 32 ðsÞ

12l2o c2 1S C ðsÞ

6. Reliability analysis of the transformer

Rðt Þ ¼ P up ðt Þ ¼ 0:3889268062e4t þ0:2139037433e0:6t 0:1515151515e1:8t

7. MTTF of the transformer

MTTF ¼ lim P up ðsÞ:

can obtain the variation of MTTF with respect to l0P .

0.1 0.917211 0.929366 0.942871 0.957965 1.363636

0 −3.46945E−17 −4.85723E−17 −1.04083E−16 −2.43196 2.22045E−16

0 −1.04083E−17 2.08167E−17 2.22045E−16 2.77556E−16 −2.22045E−16

Elektrotechnik und Informationstechnik, Vol. 122 No. 11, pp. 427-430.

P 1 ðx þ D; t þ DÞP 1 ðx; t Þ ¼ fC DP 1 ðx; t Þ;

P 1 ðx þD; t þDÞP 1 ðx þ D; t Þ þ P 1 ðx þ D; t ÞP 1 ðx; t Þ

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