Forecasting Production of Dates in Pakistan

Waqar Ali

BSTF18E039

2018-2022

Noureen Akhtar

Supervisor

A project submitted to the department of statistics, University of Sargodha,

Sargodha in the partial fulfillment of the Degree of Bachelor of Science in Statistics

June 2022

Department of Statistics

University of Sargodha

Sargodha, Pakistan

i
 Certificate of Originality of Research Work
I hereby that the research work reported in this thesis titled “Forecasting Production of
Dates in Pakistan”by Waqar Ali session 2018-2022 has been carried out under my
supervision in partial fulfillment of the requirement for the award of the degree of BS in
the subject of Statistics and is hereby approved for submission. It is further certified that
the research work carried out by the scholar is original and nothing is plagiarized in it.

Chairman:

________________

Chairman

Dr. Hafiz Zafar Nazir

Department of Statistics

University of Sargodha

Supervisor:

________________

Lecturer

Ms. Noureen Akhtar

Department of Statistics

University of Sargodha

Co-Supervisor: ________________

Visiting Lecturer

Mr. Usman Ali Khan

Department of Statistics

University of Sargodha

ii
 Acknowledgment

Boundless praise and gratitude to ALLAH Almighty, who is the most gracious, the most
benevolent, and kind, who bestowed me with the ability and strength to complete this
work, next to him, peace and blessing of Allah be upon the Holy Prophet (PBUH) and his
pure and pious progeny, who is the source of knowledge and guidance for the entire
world forever.

I would like to express my warmest sense of gratitude to the Respected Supervisor Ms.
Noureen Akhtar, and Co-Supervisor Mr. Usman Ali Khan whose encouragement,
mentorship, patience, affection, and prompt guidance have helped me to make the best of
my education. I am forever grateful to chairman Dr. Hafiz Zafar Nazeer for regarding the
provision of facilities needed for my study.

Thanks to my friends for providing me with some fruitful suggestions regarding this
research work and for providing me with pure and sincere motivation and guidelines
during the whole period of my research.

Finally, my sincere thanks to my parents and brothers. It was their love, Prayers, and care
that have brought me to this stage.

Waqar Ali

iii
 Dedication

I dedicate this humble effort to my Parents. Strong and gentle souls who taught me to
trust in ALLAH, believe in hard work and that so much could be done with my parents
for earning an honest living for us and for supporting and encouraging me to believe in
myself. Whose affection, love, and prayer of day and night made me able to get success
and honor.

My beloved brother and sister, whose love and support sustained me throughout. I also
dedicate this dissertation to my friends; they have supported me throughout the process.
The encouragement of my honorable Sir Mr. Usman Ali Khan gave me strength and
courage in every step which comes out with the fulfillment of this project.

iv
 Table of Content

Chapter1

Introduction………………………………………………………………….…… 01

Chapter 2

Literature Review………………………………………………………………… 09

Chapter 3

Methodology…………………………………………………………………….… 18

3.1 Time series …………………………………………………….……………… 18

3.2 Time series analysis …………………………………………………….…… 18
3.3 Types of time series analysis………………………………………………… 19
3.4 Component of time series analysis ………………………………………… 20
3.5 Box and Jenkins Methodology: …………………………………………… 21
3.6 Autocorrelation …………………………………………………….………… 22
3.7 Partial autocorrelation…………………………………………………….…… 23
3.8 Model selection criteria …………………………………………………….… 23

Chapter 4

Data Analysis ……………………………………………..……………..………… 24

Chapter 5

Conclusion…………………………………..………………………………….… 40

References ……………………………………..…………………………………. 41

v
 LIST OF FIGURE AND TABLE

Chapter 04

4.1 Estimation Period (Table)…………………………………………………….. . 24

4.1 Estimation Period (Figure) …………………………………………………… 25

4.2 Simple exponential smoothing with alpha (Table) …………………………… 26

4.3 Forecasting (Table) ……………………………………………………………. 27

4.3 Forecasting (Figure) ……………………………………………………………28

4.4 Estimation Period (Table) ……………………………………………………... 29

4.4 Residual Autocorrelation (Figure) …………………………………………… .. 33

4.5 Models is adequate for the data (Table) ………………………………………. 30

4.5 Residual for Partial Autocorrelation (Figure) ……………………………… … 35

4.6 Estimated Autocorrelations for residuals (Table) …………………………….. 32

4.6 Residual Periodgram (Figure) ……………………………………………….. 37

4.7 Estimated Partial Autocorrelations for residuals (Table) …………………....... 34

4.7 Periodgram for Residual (Figure) …………………………………………..…. 39

4.8 Periodogram for residuals (Table) ………………………………………..…… 36

vi
 Abstract

The purpose of this study is to forecast the production of dates in Pakistan. Forecasting is
the process of estimating unknown future estimations. Dates are important in many
factors. So by forecasting the amount of date’s production for a future year, we can get
help on working on other factors I.e. agriculture, etc. For this purpose dataset comprising
the period 1961 to 2018 was acquired from meteorological observations from the
FAOSTAT. The whole dataset was analyzed through the Stat-graphics model along with
finding autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation. Our objective was to ensure whether
the prediction we have made through this analysis is homogeneous or not. The results
show the p-value less than alpha and the graphs show that the rainfall in the years 2019 to
2031 is also stationary which means the statistical parameters are independent of time.

vii
 Chapter 1

Introduction

Dates are a variety of sweet fresh stone fruit that is also eaten dried. Dates are also a good
source of natural sugar. Granulated date sugar and date syrup are available in many
supermarkets. Once pitted, dates can be used in just about anything. Chopped and added
to salads or cookies or cakes, they bring their unique sweetness to all. There are many
cultures in North Africa and the Middle East where plates of dates, nuts, and other dried
fruits are always on the table, no matter the occasion. In Mexico, where dates are fichu de
la Frusta in Spanish, they have been used in moles and other sauces since the Spaniards
brought them over in the early 1500s.

Dates are sweet when they’re fresh off the tree and become even sweeter and chewy as
they dry. They have a caramel-honey like flavor that can be compared to raisins, but once
you try one, you’ll remember the taste and be able to identify it as a date forever. The
different varieties of dates have individual flavor profiles, but all are easy to identify as
dates. Texturally, they have a skin which is noticeable when you eat one whole, but not
when they are cooked.

Dates are native to North Africa and the Middle East, where they grow on palm trees
called (unsurprisingly) date palms. They grow at the tops of the trees in huge clusters,
just under the palm fronds that are typically 65 to 85 feet up in the air. Many are hand
harvested, which means a human in a safety rig climbs the tree and picks them. Most
dates are left on the tree to ripen and dry out, an energy-efficient, solar-powered
preservation process that ensures a long shelf life when harvested. Dates have been
featured for eons in the cuisines of the areas where they grow naturally.

There are two types of dates readily available at grocery stores across the U.S., Medjool
and Deglet Noor. Medjool dates are the most common and what you’ll find when you
buy whole dates, so they’re your go-to in any recipe that calls for dates. They’re plump
and juicy, with a flavor that skews towards maple syrup. Deglet Noor are the variety of
dates most often found in packages of pitted and chopped dates, and they’re perfect for

1
stirring into recipes like cookies and cakes, chutneys and sauces. They save a lot of
pitting time.

Like all nutrition info from the USDA, a portion of dates is 100 grams, which is about 5
to 6 dates. There are about 250 calories in 100 grams of dates, along with 2.4 mg protein,
58 g carbs in the form of glucose and fructose and 4 g dietary fiber.

Pakistan is the only country in South Asia which grows Dates on a commercial scale.
Pakistan produces a large variety of fruits and vegetables almost round the Year. Date
production in Pakistan ranks third in fruits and same is the case in case of Exports. It is
one of the largest commercial fruit of Pakistan. The harvesting season for dates starts in
July and runs until September.

Dates have an excellent nutrition profile. Since they’re dried, their calorie content is
higher than most fresh fruit. The calorie content of dates is similar to that of other dried
fruits, such as raisins and figs.

Most of the calories in dates come from carbs. The rest are from a very small amount of
protein. Despite their calories, dates contain some important vitamins and minerals in
addition to a significant amount of fiber.

A 3.5-ounce (100-gram) serving provides the following nutrients:

 Calories: 277
 Carbs: 75 grams
 Fiber: 7 grams
 Protein: 2 grams
 Potassium: 20% of the RDI
 Magnesium: 14% of the RDI
 Copper: 18% of the RDI
 Manganese: 15% of the RDI
 Iron: 5% of the RDI

2
 Vitamin B6: 12% of the RDI

Dates are also high in antioxidants, which may contribute too many of their health
benefits. With almost 7 grams of fiber in a 3.5-ounce serving, including dates in your diet
is a great way to increase your fiber intake.

Fiber can benefit your digestive health by preventing constipation. It promotes regular
bowel movements by contributing to the formation of stool.21 people who consumed 7
dates per day for 21 days experienced improvements in stool frequency and had a
significant increase in bowel movements compared to when they did not eat dates.
Furthermore, the fiber in dates may be beneficial for blood sugar control. Fiber slows
digestion and may help prevent blood sugar levels from spiking too high after eating. For
this reason, dates have a low glycemic index (GI), which measures how quickly your
blood sugar rises after eating a certain food.

Dates provide various antioxidants that have a number of health benefits to offer,
including a reduced risk of several diseases. Antioxidants protect your cells from free
radicals, which are unstable molecules that may cause harmful reactions in your body and
lead to disease. Compared to similar types of fruit, such as figs and dried plums, dates
appear to have the highest antioxidant content.

Here’s an overview of the three most potent antioxidants in dates:

 Flavonoids: Flavonoids are powerful antioxidants that may help reduce inflammation

and have been studied for their potential to reduce the risk of diabetes, Alzheimer’s
disease and certain types of cancer.
 Carotenoids: Carotenoids are proven to promote heart health and may also reduce
the risk of eye-related disorders, such as macular degeneration.
 Phenolic acid: Known for its anti-inflammatory properties, phenolic acid may help
lower the risk of cancer and heart disease.

3
Dates have been claimed to have a few other health benefits that have not yet been
extensively studied.

 Bone health: Dates contain several minerals, including phosphorus, potassium,

calcium and magnesium. All of these have been studied for their potential to prevent
bone-related conditions like osteoporosis.
 Blood sugar control: Dates have the potential to help with blood sugar
regulation due to their low glycemic index, fiber and antioxidants. Thus, eating them
may benefit diabetes management.

Although these potential health benefits are promising, more human studies are needed
before conclusions can be made.

Dates are grown in all the four provinces of Pakistan over an area of about 75,000
Hectors.

 Khairpur /Sukkur in Sindh ,

 Turbat /Panjgur in Balochistan, ,
 D I Khan in KPK, and
 MuzaffarGarh&Jhang in Punjab.

Sindh is the largest date-producing province followed by Baluchistan, Punjab and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa.

The annual production of dates in Pakistan is estimated to be between 550,000 to 650,000

metric tons (MT). Sindh contributes around 50 percent of dates produced in Pakistan of
which 90 percent comes from the date palms of KhairpurMirs. Pakistan falls in such an
agro-ecological region where dates can grow on a large scale with superior quality.

There are more than 160 varieties of dates palm in the country, among them the popular
varieties are: Aseel, Zahidi, Fasli, Maazwati, Dhakki, Kharbalian, Begum Jangi, Dagh,
Goakna, Tota, Karwan, Hillavi, Khudrawi and MozawatiGulistan, Jowansur, Lango,
Sabzo, Kharuba, Karbala, and Kupro. Aseel of Khairpur, Dhakki of D.I.Khan and Begum
4
Jangi of Mekran are best of all varieties of dates grown in Pakistan in terms of demand
and popularity due to their exotic taste. These varieties have surpassed by none and are
matched with DegletNour, Zahidi and few others of world most popular dates. Out of
these varieties, Sindh contributes around 50% of dates produced in Pakistan.

Pakistan’s commercially important date varieties include

 Aseel, Karbala, Fasli, and Kupro of Sindh;

 Muzawati, Begum Jangi, Japan, Swore, Kehraba and Rabai of Balochistan;
 Dhakki and Gulistan of KPK.

Khairpur, Turbat (Makran), and D.I. Khan is major date growing regions in the country.

In 1999, Pakistan produced 540,000 tonnes of dates annually. Instead of growing, this
number went down to 467,000 tonnes in 2015-16, according to data collected by the
Trade.

Balochistan is the major producer of dates in Pakistan as it produces 45% of the total
production. Balochistan’sTurbat district produces 100,000 tonnes of dates, almost one-
fourth of the total production of Pakistan, while Panjgur produces 83,000 tonnes. On the
other hand, Sindh’s Khairpur district produces 237,000 tonnes, which is 42% of the total
production of the country. “This makes Khairpur a densely palm populated area,” said a
source at the Sindh Enterprise Development Fund (SEDF).

“The government needs to pay urgent attention to production, processing and quality
enhancement, preservation, research and marketing to save and ensure growth of this
potent source of foreign exchange,” he wrote in his report in October 2017.

There are myriad of problems, resulting in a decline in Pakistan’s date production,

according to the SEDF source. A palm tree, which is the source of date production, grows
in seven to eight years and produces the fruit at its optimal level for 25 years, after which
its production starts declining, therefore, the tree needs to be replaced.

5
The 300 varieties of dates, which Pakistan produces, are also 50 years old and are not in
great demand internationally, he said, adding due to that prices of Pakistani dates range
between Rs100 and Rs250 per kg in the international market.

Due to the lack of innovation, Pakistan is losing potential revenue. Pakistan exports fresh
dates to the US, Canada, France, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia and the UAE, but
these comprise only 10% of total production, while most of the dates are dried.

The scope of value addition and profitability is immense. With a little value addition,
dates can be used to make syrup, juice, paste, vinegar and so on, the source said.

“Instead of value addition, Pakistani traders push down the value of their dates by drying
them,” he said. Pakistan mainly exports dates to India, which itself is a big producer, but
due to immense consumption of dates and coconut in religious activities, India also
imports dates from Pakistan. “These days due to tensions between the two countries,
India has slapped 200% duty on Pakistani products, which is badly impacting the export
of Pakistani dates,” said Sukkur Chamber of Commerce and Industry Vice President
GurdasWadhwani.

“Dried dates cause a 60% weight and value loss,” said the SEDF source. Pakistan does
not have processing units or cold storages, especially for dates, so drying them remains
the only option. Dates contain more heat, so they need special cold storages.

Pakistan does not have a storage system due to which date growers cannot save their crop
and go for the second best option, which is to dry the dates, and that too is carried out in a
very unhygienic way, and not through mechanised dryers. “If you travel to Khairpur, you
will see dates lying at the roadside. Due to this unhygienic way of drying, dates carry
about 21% aflatoxin, a family of toxins produced by certain fungi on agricultural crops,
while internationally only 2.3-7.15% is acceptable,” stated the source.

Mechanised dryers are not difficult to build, he said, adding students of Karachi

6
University and IBA have often presented their prototypes, which can dehydrate 1,000 to
2,000 dates. This can be taken to a massive level if the government or private sector
supports these students.

Pakistan’s dates varieties are over 50 years old, which do not look or taste good, unlike
the juicy Middle Eastern dates. Even Pakistanis themselves do not prefer local dates.

Pakistan’s first dates dehydration plant and cold storage is going to be built soon by a
private firm in the Khairpur Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The Sindh government is
offering opportunities to the businessmen who want to set up the processing and storage
facilities. Date processing plants can ideally be established at the Khairpur SEZ,
developed by the district administration of Khairpur under the supervision of Sindh
investment department. 

Pakistan follows Iran, Egypt, Iraq and Saudi Arabia on the list of the top dates producing
countries in the world with around 11 percent share of the global production of this fruit.
Several varieties are similar to those cultivated in Iraq, Iran and the Gulf countries like
Hillawi, Zahdi, Shakeri, Basri etc. Pakistan, especially Sindh is blessed as a major grower
and exporter of dates due to its soil and season. Pakistan is the fifth largest date producer
as well as a fifth largest exporter in the world.

Dates are exported in two forms as either fresh dates or dried dates. Fresh dates are
exported to the USA, Canada, France, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Malaysia, Germany etc.
and UAE while 90% of dried dates are exported to India via Lahore. Around 95% of the
export consists of dried dates and only about 5% is exported in the form of pasteurized
fresh dates, which is less than even 1% of the total date production in the country. Over
the years, Pakistan has gained significant strength concerning dried dates. India and
Bangladesh are two largest importers of Pakistani dry dates. Pakistani dates have a huge
national and international market demand

Although Pakistan currently stands at fifth position in dates producing countries, it can
easily improve its position and production by improving farm management, pre-
harvesting, harvesting and post-harvesting practices. Pakistan has the capacity to supply
fully processed high-quality dates in various styles, shapes and forms, which include

7
pitted/ un-pitted whole dates, pressed date bricks, date chops, date paste in bulk, as well
as ready-to, and distribute small boxes/jars. Importers in other countries continue to buy
Pakistani dates only to add value and then re-export. This is the value being missed by
the country’s agricultural value chain. Dry dates dominate in the country’s exports
because of high demand in India. However fresh dates fetch better prices, globally.
Through the government support, in the form of financing and date farm infrastructure
development, Pakistani dates can fetch handsome foreign exchange.

8
 Chapter 2

Literature view

In this chapter, a brief review of past research papers or previous work is done by many
authors. This literature is related to the forecasting production of Dates in Pakistan.

Baloch et al. (2006)conducted a study on the Growth and yield of rice as affected by
transplanting dates and seedlings per hill under high temperature of Dera Ismail Khan,
Pakistan. Studies were initiated for two consecutive years to find out the effect of time of
transplanting and seedlings hill−1 on the productivity of rice in Dera Ismail Khan District
of North West Frontier Province (NWFP), Pakistan. The experiment was laid out in a
randomized complete block design with split plot arrangements. Main plots consisted of
four transplanting dates viz. 20th and 27th of June and 4th and 11th of July while sub-
plots contained 1, 2, 3 or 4 seedlings hill.

Baloch et al. (2006) conducted this study about Impact of controlled atmosphere on the
stability of Dhakki dates. The dates equilibrated at water activity (aw) of 0.52, 0.58 and
0.75 were stored at 40 1C for 4 months under the controlled atmosphere of nitrogen,
oxygen and air. The samples were evaluated monthly for darkening, pH, and titratable
acidity. The study indicates that the darkening and titratable acidity increased whereas the
pH declined gradually during the storage. The change in quality appeared to be a function
of storage atmosphere and water activity.

Gul and Ahmed (2007) conducted this study about effect of different sowing dates on the
vegetative and reproductive growth of canola (BRASSICA NAPUS L.) CULTIVARS
UNDER DIFFERENT SALINITY LEVELS. Effect of sowing date was investigated on
the growth of canola (Brassica napus L.) cv. Oscar and Rainbow under saline water
irrigation of different sea salt concentrations. Plants were sown at different dates and
subjected to control (non-saline), 0.4% (EC 4.5 dS.m-1) and 0.6% (EC 6.5 dS.m1) of sea
salt concentrations. Vegetative growth was recorded in terms of plant height, fresh and
dry shoot biomass per plant, while reproductive growth was noted in terms of number of

9
flowers and siliquae seed number and weight per plant. Plant growth on vegetative as
well as reproductive phases was found proportionately inhibited with respect of
increasing salinity in irrigation water.

Khushk et al. (2009) conducted a study at Technology Transfer Institute, Primary data for
this study were collected from major date produce date-producing areas of Sindh. For this
purpose, 150 date growers and market intermediaries were interviewed to understand the
existing date marketing system. Efforts were made to describe and analyzed the structure
and operations of date marketing channels and quantify the marketing margins of
producers and other market agencies. The results revealed that maximum share of
producer was 37 percent in fresh dates and 24 percent in hydrated dates. The highest
share of 42 percent was obtained by contractor in hydrated dates and minimum (20%) in
fresh dates. Very low share (14%) was obtained by retailers in dehydrated and hydrated
dates.

Jatoi et al. (2009) conducted a study about the Dates in Sindh: Facts and Figures. Date
palm is one of the oldest plants cultivated by man and its origin is thought to be
Mesopotamia (Iraq), Gulf region or Indus Civilization. The presence of date fruits in the
excavation of Moen-jo-Daro storage vases indicates the presence of date palm cultivation
in Sindh as early as 2000 B.C (Jandan, 1974). Whereas, silicified seeds or mineralized
date stones of 6000 B.C have been tested from Mehargarh IB and IIB sites of Pakistan
(Costantini, 1985). On the other hand some scholars believed that date palm have been
brought to the Indo-Pak subcontinent by Alexander the great (Pasha et al., 1972 and
Nixon, 1951). While it is a general concept among scholars that dates were probably
introduced in Sindh by Forces of Mohammed Bin Qasim in 712 A.D. Date palm belongs
to family Arecaceae, is a monocot, perennial plant extensively cultivated for its edible
sweet fruit. The fruit is a drupe known as a date. The term Phoenix dactylifera L. was
given by Carolus Linnaeus in his binomial nomenclature in 1753. The term Dactylifera is
derived from the Greek word “Dactylor” which means “finger”.

Jatoi et al. (2009) conducted a study about the Dates in Sindh: Facts and Figures. Date
palm is one of the oldest plants cultivated by man and its origin is thought to be
Mesopotamia (Iraq), Gulf region or Indus Civilization. The presence of date fruits in the

10
excavation of Moen-jo-Daro storage vases indicates the presence of date palm cultivation
in Sindh as early as 2000 B.C (Jandan, 1974). Whereas, silicified seeds or mineralized
date stones of 6000 B.C have been tested from Mehargarh IB and IIB sites of Pakistan
(Costantini, 1985). On the other hand some scholars believed that date palm have been
brought to the Indo-Pak subcontinent by Alexander the great (Pasha et al., 1972 and
Nixon, 1951). While it is a general concept among scholars that dates were probably
introduced in Sindh by Forces of Mohammed Bin Qasim in 712 A.D. Date palm belongs
to family Arecaceae, is a monocot, perennial plant extensively cultivated for its edible
sweet fruit. The fruit is a drupe known as a date. The term Phoenix dactylifera L. was
given by Carolus Linnaeus in his binomial nomenclature in 1753. The term Dactylifera is
derived from the Greek word “Dactylor” which means “finger”.

Tahir et al. (2009)conducted a study on Effect of Different Sowing Dates on Growth and
Yield of Wheat. In a field experiment at Faisalabad, Pakistan conducted during winter
2005-06, the effect of three sowing dates December 1, 15 and 30 on three wheat cultivars
Inqlab-91, AS-2002 and Bhakkar-2002 was studied. Sowing dates and varieties both
significantly affected the number of fertile tillers m-2, plant height, and number of
spikelet per spike, 1000-grain weight and grain yield. In case of sowing dates
significantly maximum grain yield (4289.54 kg ha-1) was obtained when crop was sown
on 1st December against the minimum grain yield (2109.50 kg ha1) in case of late
sowing i.e. 30th December.

Zahoor et al. (2011) conducted this study about Anti-nutritional Factors in Some Date
Palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) Varieties Grown in Pakistan. Twenty one Pakistani date
palm (Phoenix dactylifera L) varieties were investigated for their level of anti-nutritional
factors. All observations were made at tamr stage (maturity) of fruit. Significant
differences were recorded in the level of antinutritional factors among varieties. Tannin
contents range from 0.22±0.01-0.87±0.01% dry fruit weight basis in date cultivars. The
highest mean value was recorded in case of Desi red small (0.87±0.01%) and lowest
tannin content was observed in Aseel (0.22±0.01%), Dhakki (0.25±0.01%) and Hillavi
(0.28±0.01%). Maximum phytate content was found in Dora desi (0.77±0.01%) and
minimum value was recorded in cultivar Dora (0.30±0.01%). Oxalate content ranged

11
from 3.63±0.01-6.49±0.01% (on dry matter basis) among date cultivars. Maximum mean
value for oxalate content was found in Simple basraywal (6.49±0.01%) and lowest value
was recorded in Dora (3.63±0.01%).

Abul et al. (2011) conducted a study regarding the Date Palm Wilt Disease (Sudden
Decline Syndrome) in Pakistan, Symptoms and Remedy. Date palm (Phoenix dactylifera
L.) is one of the most important fruit crops of the tropical and subtropical regions of the
world and grown in large area in Pakistan. Date palm cultivated area is 93.3 thousands
hectares with total production 6, 80,107 tons. Dates production is distributed in Sindh
(45.4%), Balochistan (44.8%), and a limited production in Punjab (7.9%) and Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (1.9%). Approximately 85% of Sindh dates are produced in Khairpur
district. The date palm sudden decline disease could resemble some similar symptoms of
wilt diseases in the world such as Palm Lethal Yellowing caused by Phytoplasma which
is a fatal disease of Coconut and also infectious to date palm. The drying manner of
fronds displayed similar symptoms of Bayoud disease (Fusarium wilt) caused by
FusariumoxysporumSchlechtendahlf.sp.albedinis in Morocco and Algeria.

Farah, (2012)conducted a study on the Exports of the Dates in Pakistan. Export plays a
significant role in the economic growth of a country. Increase in export led to an increase
in production and ultimate outcome is economic growth. The purpose of this study was to
build a forecast model meant for the Exports of Dates in Pakistan for the next 15 years.
The yearly data of dates export for the period 1962-2008 was used based on the
assumptions that past trends (area planted and yield) and existence of normal weather
pattern will hold. The Box Jenkins methodology was taken as an appropriate set of
Autoregressive integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models that were constructed for
future forecast of date exports of Pakistan.

Marwat et al. (2012) conducted this study about Ethnobotanical Studies on Dwarf Palm
(Nannorhopsritchieana (Griff.) Aitchison) and Date Palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) in Dera
Ismail Khan, KPK, Pakistan. This paper is based on research work conducted during
2008-2010 in Dera Ismail Khan (D. I. Khan) District, Pakistan, to investigate Socio-
Economic Impacts of Dwarf Palm (Nannorhopsritchieana) and Date Palm (Phoenix
dactylifera) on the local inhabitants. A questionnaire for data collection of Dwarf Palm

12
was designed and local people were interviewed. The main Dwarf Palm (Mazri) areas are
lying between the Koh-i-Surkh and Marwat hill and yielding about 1000 tons of mazri
leaves annually. Date Palm plantations are concentrated in Paniala, Paharpur, Chawdwan
and Dhakki. The prominent varieties grown in the area are Dhakki, Shakri, Gulistan,
Zaidi, Hillawi, Basra, Azadi and khudarawi. Dhakki Dates are well-known among all
other varieties. Total area under date’s cultivation in the district is 100,000 hectares, with
total production of 11,000 tons dates. An average yield of Dhakki-Dates y−1 ranges from
6500 to 7000 tons i.e., 75% of the total production of dates in the area and dried dates
production ranges from 800 - 1000 tons·year−1.

Sarwar et al. (2013) conducted this study regarding the Effect of Different Planting Dates
on Growth and Development of Gladiolus grandiflorus under the Ecological Conditions
of Faisalabad, Pakistan. The present study was carried out to elucidate the effect of
different sowing dates and temperature on growth, yield and quality of two important
cultivars of Gladiolus grandiflorus L. Rose supreme and White prosperity. The results
showed that different planting dates have significant effect on number of days taken by
gladiolus corm to germinate. A significant superiority of T1 5.5 days over T2 with 9.10
days on all the treatments was observed.

Abul et al. (2015) performed a study on the Date Palm Status and Perspective in Pakistan.
Date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) is the third most important fruit crop after citrus and
mango in Pakistan. This crop is found in all four provinces of Pakistan on 90,000 ha with
a production of around 600,000 MT yr. −1. Pakistan’s position is always among the
seven largest producers and exporters of dates in the world. Sindh and Balochistan
provinces contribute more than 90 % of production and crop area in Pakistan. In Sindh,
Khairpur is the biodiversity center having more than 300 date palm cultivars.

Memon et al. (2015)conducted a study on the Date Palm. Date palm is possibly the most
ancient cultivated tree in the world. This tree is considered as an important constituent of
farming system in dry and semi-arid regions and is suitable for both small and large scale
farming. Dates are a very nutritious and delicious fruit containing mainly carbohydrates
and several types of sugars but also proteins, vitamins, and minerals. A kilogram of dates
contains 2500-3000 calories. Pakistan is the 4th largest producer of dates with total

13
annual production at around 650,000 tons in the form of over 300 varieties produced in
Pakistan.

Chandio et al. (2016) conducted this study about Impact of Area under Cultivation, Water
Availability, Credit Disbursement, and Fertilizer Off-take on Wheat Production in
Pakistan. This study investigates the impact of area under wheat cultivation, water
availability, credit disbursement and fertilizers off- take on wheat production in Pakistan
using annual time series data over the period of 1982 to 2011. The present study
employed a log-linear Cobb-Douglas production function in order to analyze the data.
The empirical results from the model show that area under wheat cultivation, water
availability, and credit disbursement has positive impact on wheat production. On the
other hand, the empirical results show that fertilizer off-take has a negative and no
significant impact on wheat production.

Abid et al. (2016) conducted a survey to examine prospect trends of dates area and
production in Pakistan by using time series data from 1980- 81 to 2012-13 (32
years).Three accuracy measures were used for the selection of best fitted model. These
accuracy measures are mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), mean absolute deviation
(MAD) and mean squared deviation (MSD). Double exponential trend was located to be
best fitted model among other five models (linear trend, quadratic trend, exponential
growth, s-curve and moving average) for estimating predicted values of area and
production of dates for upcoming seven years

Ali et al. (2018) conducted a study about Influence of Sowing Dates on Varying Maize
(Zea mays I.) Varieties Grown under Agro-Climatic Condition of Peshawar, Pakistan.
The rapid climate changes are imperative to evaluate and find ways that suite to maize-
specific varieties either hybrids or varieties with appropriate sowing dates to avoid the
critical growth stages from the stresses due to climate condition. Sowing at proper time
and selection of good verity are the most important factor cropping system.

Hussain et al. (2021) conducted a study on the Effect of Temperature on Sowing Dates of
Wheat under Arid and Semi-Arid Climatic Regions and Impact Quantification of Climate
Change through Mechanistic Modeling with Evidence from Field. Rising temperature
from climate change is the most threatening factor worldwide for crop production.

14
Sustainable wheat production is a challenge due to climate change and variability, which
is ultimately a serious threat to food security in Pakistan. A series of field experiments
were conducted during seasons 2013–2014 and 2014–2015 in the semi-arid (Faisalabad)
and arid (Layyah) regions of Punjab-Pakistan. Data for the model calibration and
evaluation were collected from field experiments following the standard procedures and
protocols. The grain yield under future climate scenarios was simulated by using a well
calibrated CERES-wheat model included in DSSAT v4.7.

Mudassir et al. (2021)conducted a study about Conformance of sowing dates for

maximizing heat use efficiency and seed cotton yield in arid to semi-arid cotton zone of
Pakistan. Pakistan is placed among the most vulnerable countries with relation to climate
change and its impacts on agricultural productivity. Cotton is staged as the cash crop of
the country and the main source of raw material for textile, oil, and feed industry.
Varying environmental attributes have significant effects on the duration of vegetative
and reproductive stages of cotton crop. To evaluate the potential impacts of varied
temperatures regimes in different sowing times, field experiments were carried out
throughout the cotton growing areas of Pakistan from Faisalabad in Central Punjab to
RYK in Southern Punjab and Sakrand in Sindh to Dera Ismail Khan in Khyber
Pakhtunkhwa (KPK) Province. Seed cotton yield and heat use efficiency were also varied
among the locations and sowing dates.

Bashir et al. (2010) conducted this study regarding the effect of different sowing dates on
yield and yield components of direct seeded coarse ricE (Oryza sativa L). Field
experiment was conducted to evaluate the effect of different sowing dates on yield and
yield components of the direct sown coarse rice during the Kharif season of 2008, at
Agronomic Research Area, University of Agriculture, and Faisalabad. Experiment
comprised of six sowing dates i.e. 31st May, 10th June, 20th June, 30th June, 10th July
and 20th July. Data on agronomic parameters and economics of coarse rice were
recorded. Results revealed that direct seeded rice sown on 20th June proved to be the best
for obtaining maximum grain yield and net return. 20th June sowing also gave maximum
number of productive (panicle bearing) tillers, number of kernels per panicle, 1000-grain
weight and benefit-cost ratio.

15
Zaid, (2010) studied about the the world date production: a challenging case study. The
Date Palm Research and Development Program in the UAE, Co implemented by the
UAE University and the United Nations Office for Project Services (UNOPS) since 16
June 2000, will be presented. The Project‘s background and justification, its development
objectives along with the immediate objectives, outputs and activities will also be
discussed.

Ali et al. (2010) conducted this study about the sowing date effect on yield of different
wheat varieties. This study was conducted at Adaptive Research Farm, Vehari, Pakistan
during the year 2003-06. Two newly evolved wheat varieties SH-2002 and AS-2002
alognwith a standard Uqab-2000 were subjected to different sowing times starting from
November 1 to December 30 at ten days interval. The pooled data revealed that
significantly higher grain yield (3826 kg/ha) was obtained from variety AS-2002 sown on
November 10 followed by same variety sown on November 20 (3731 kg/ha). Each
successive delay in sowing beyond November 20 progressively decreased the grain yield
significantly. Yield was reduced by 27.24 percent in sowing of December 30 as
compared to November 10. Wheat variety AS-2002 proved better than SH-2002 and
Uqab-2000. Three years results concluded that regardless of the varieties November 10 to
November 20 is the optimum sowing time for wheat under agro-ecological conditions of
Vehari.

Abbas et al. (2019) conducted this study regarding the Study of Sowing dates and
Hybrids Effect in Maize-based Cropping System under Arid Conditions of Southern
Punjab, Pakistan. Optimum sowing date and most suitable hybrid are two main
adaptation strategies for maize crop for managing the unfavorable weather circumstances.
The objective of this research was to determine the optimum sowing date and hybrid
during spring and autumn seasons. Field trials were carried out in spring and autumn
seasons during 2016 and 2017 at Agronomic Research Area, BahauddinZakariya
University, and Multan, Pakistan.

Kamal et al. (2020) conducted this study regarding the Effect of Irrigation on Chickpea
Varieties Sown on Different Dates on Irrigated Fields of Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa,
Pakistan. This study was conducted to examine the impact of irrigation on chickpea yield,

16
to select a variety/ varieties best suited for irrigated farming in irrigated region and to
standardize the production technology package of irrigated chickpea. The experiment was
conducted at ARS Bannu, in Randomized Complete Block Design with split plot
arrangement having three replications. Irrigations (No irrigation, pre-sowing irrigation
and irrigation at flowering stage) were allotted to the main plots while varieties (Karak-1,
Karak-2, Sheenghar and KC-98) and sowing dates (Oct. 1st, Oct. 15, Nov, 1, and Nov,
15) were kept in the sub plots. The sub plot size was 4 m by 1.8 m with row to row
distance of 30 cm and plant to plant distance of 10 cm. It was found from the results of
the above experiment that planting dates significantly affected grain yield and its
components. It is concluded from the above experiment that planting dates at Bannu
significantly affected grain yield and its components and higher grain yield was produced
in early planting (1st October) and decline with delay in planting at Bannu. Irrigation did
not influence grain yield of chickpea.

17
 Chapter 3
Methodology
3.1 Time Series
Time series is a sequence of data that is collected in a regular interval of time. In these
observations, data and results are obtained over a time. In time series these observations
are well defined. These measurements are taken hourly, daily, monthly and yearly and at
every regular interval. For example, monthly sales figures and daily bank balance.
Measuring the level of unemployment is deal in time series because employment and
unemployment are well defined and that are measured in equally interval of time.
Understanding the pattern of data is every important because if we understand the pattern
then we forecast the data for future. For understanding the data, we use time series plots.
These plots tell us about the regular pattern.
A time series containing the single variable is called univariate but if it is containing the
two or more variables it is called multivariate. A time series may be continuous or
discrete. In a continuous time, series observations are measured in every instant of time
but at discrete time series observations are measured in discrete set of interval. For
example, temperature reading, flow of river can be recorded as a continuous time series
and the population of a particular city and the production of a company are representing
as discrete time series.

3.2 Time series Analysis

The analysis of q time series is the analysis in which the set of observations in a time
series are analyzed. The observations are denoted by Y1, Y2… Yp are made in equal
intervals of time “t”.
The first step in analyzing a time series is to plot a given series on the graph taking time
interval “t” along x-axis as an independent value and observed value “Yt” on y-axis as a
dependent value.
Such graph shows different types of fluctuations. A time series is called stationary when
there is no systematic change in their mean and when there is no change in their variance

18
and periodic variations are removed. Stationary time series always plays an important
role in a time series.

3.3 Component of time series

A time series is affected by the four components which can be separated by the observer
data. The components are:
 Secular trend or Trend
 Cyclic
 Seasonal
 Irregularity
3.3.1 Trend variations
It is the long term effect. When the time series is increased or decreased over a long time
period is termed as secular trend or simply trend for example number of houses in a city
are show upward trend. The downward trend is observed in series relating to mortality
rates etc.
3.3.2 Seasonal variations
Seasonal variations are the fluctuations within the year during the season. There are
different factors that are causing the seasonal variations. These factors are climate and
weather conditions, customs and traditional habits for example sales of gold drinks are
increased in summer and sale of wool cloths increase in winter season. Seasonal factor is
very important factor for businessman, shopkeepers, and producers because they make
future plan.
3.3.3 Irregular variations
Irregular or random variations in a time series are the variation which are not regular and
they do not repeat in a regular time period. These variations do not come in a specific
time period so these variations are random. For example, war, earthquake, and flood etc.
are irregular variations. There is no definite statistical technique for measuring the
irregular or random variations in a time series.

19
3.3.4 Cyclic variations
These are long term variations. The cyclic fluctuations are long term oscillations which
tend to occur in more or less regular trend over a period of certain number of years.

3.4 Types of Time series

Following are the types of time series
3.4.1 Stationary Time Series
The time series is called stationary time series when there is no systematic change in their
mean and variance. In other words, one observation in the data is much related to another
observation 9
3.4.2 Non stationary Time Series
The time series is called non stationary time series if there is a trend in a series. In other
words, there are variations in the data.
3.4.3 Discrete Time Series
The time series is called discrete when observations are taken at specific time period.
3.4.4 Continuous Time Series
A time series is said to be continuous when observations are taken continuously through
time.
3.4.5 Deterministic Time Series
A time series which is predicted exactly is known as deterministic time series.
3.4.6 Stochastic Time Series
A time series in which future values are partially determine by past values is known as
stochastic time series. In stochastic time series models it is usually assumed that the
errors are uncorrelated which shows that observations are also uncorrelated. However,
this assumption is rarely met in practice.
3.4.7 Interval Time Series
An interval time series does not contain value for points in time but rather for particular
intervals of time. These time intervals can be equidistantly or randomly distributed in

20
time. Equidistance in term of year of months’ stills means that actual intervals have
different length 10.
3.4.8 Momentary Time Series
The momentary time series is the rarest form of time series. It contrasts to the other time
series. A momentary time series is only defined for a discrete set of points in time. Time
series does not contain any information for the time between these points. Interpolation is
not meaningful, and the value function thus have the value undefined for these points.
3.5 Box and Jenkins Methodology
Box-Jenkins method is used for forecasting. Box-Jenkins forecasting models are based on
statistical concepts and principles and are able to model a wide variety of time series
behavior. It consists of large class of models to choose from and a systematic approach
for identifying the correct model form. It has following steps.
 Stationary Checking

 Model identification

 Parameter estimation

 Diagnostic checking

 Forecasting

3.5.1 Stationary Checking:

The first step in developing a box Jenkin model is to determine if the time series is
stationary. This means that we check either our mean or variances are constant through
time or not.
3.5.2 Model Identification
Identification involves determine the order of the model required (p, d, q). In this step we
use graphical method. We plotting the series ACF and PACF etc. If the graphical plot
indicates non stationary, then we move towards the difference. Difference is the best way
to transform the non-stationary series into stationary one. If the transformation is done

21
only once we can say that data has been first difference. If data is still non-stationary,
then we apply second difference and we say that data has been second difference.
3.5.3 Parameter Estimation
Estimation involves estimation of parameters of the different models and we proceed to
the first selection of model. For this purpose, we use information criteria. After selection
of appropriate model, we estimate the parameters of ARIMA (p, d, and q). The main
approach to fitting Box-Jenkin models are nonlinear least square and maximum
likelihood estimation.
3.5.4 Diagnostic checking
Model diagnostic for Box-Jenkins model is similar to model validation. We assume that
the residuals should be independent when their distribution is normal with fixed mean
and variance. If the Box-Jenkins model is good model for the data, then the residuals
should satisfy this assumption. If this assumption is not satisfied, we need to fit a more
appropriate model. For this purpose, we move back to the step of model identification
and develop a better one model.

3.5.5 Forecasting

One of the primary objectives of building a model for a time series is to be able to forecast the
values for that series at future times.

3.6 Auto Correlation

Autocorrelation is a numerical value that indicates how the data series is related to itself
over time. More precisely, it measures how strongly data values at a specific number of
periods apart are correlated to each other over time. The number of period apart is usually
called the “lag”. For example, an autocorrelation at lag 1 measure hoe value 1 period
apart are correlated to one another throughout the series. An autocorrelation at lag 2
measures how the data two period apart are correlated throughout the series.
Autocorrelation range is +1 to -1. A value that is close to +1 indicate that high positive
correlation while a value that is close to -1 shows a high negative correlation. These
values are evaluated through the graph plot. This graph is called Correlogram.
Correlogram plots the auto-correlation values for a given series at different lags. This is

22
called autocorrelation function and it is very important for ARIMA model. The
autocorrelation function is used for following two purposes:
 To detect non-randomness in the data.

 To identify any appropriate time series model if the data are not random.

3.7 Partial Correlation

In general, partial correlation is a conditional correlation. A measure of autocorrelation at

log k that takes account of the correlation at lags less than k. The plot of the PACF can be
useful guide to the appropriate order of an autoregressive time series. In time series
analysis, the partial autocorrelation function (PACF) plays an important role in data
analysis aimed at identifying the extent of the lag in an autoregressive model. The use of
this function was introduced as part of the Box-Jenkins approach to time series
modelling, where by plotting the partial autocorrelation function one could determine the
appropriate lags p in an AR (p) model or in an extended ARIMA (p, d, q) model.

3.8 Model selection criteria

Model selection is the method of selecting of statistical model from given data. In this
simplest case pre-existing set of data is considered.
3.8.1 Akaike information criterion
It is the measure of relative goodness of fit of statistical model. It was developed by
Akaike under the name of an information criterion (AIC). It was first published by
Akaike in 1974. It can describe the accuracy and complexity of the model. AIC provides
a means for model selection. If all candidates’ models fit poorly then AIC will not give
any warning of that.
3.8.2 Schwarz Criterion
The Bayesian information criterion (BIC) or Schwarz criterion (SBC) is a criterion for
model selection among a class of parametric models with different numbers of
parameters. When estimating model parameters by using maximum likelihood estimation

23
then we can say that it is possible to increase the likelihood by adding parameters and as
a result in over fitting.

Chapter 4

Data Analysis

All the analysis is done by using StatsGraphics. In the present study, the data for the
production of Dates for the period 1961 to 2018 was collected from the source
FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization Corporate Statistical Database). In order
to examine the nature of change and degree of relationship in the production of Dates.

Forecasting Summary:

Number of observations = 59
Forecast model selected: Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607
Number of forecasts generated: 12
Number of periods withheld for validation: 0

Table 4.1 Estimation Period

Statistic Estimation Period

RMSE 13.5829
MAE 7.44594
MAPE 10.238
ME 2.29628
MPE 2.91902

This procedure will forecast future values of Col_2. The data cover 59 time periods.
Currently, a simple exponential smoothing model has been selected. This model assumes
that the best forecast for future data is given by an exponentially weighted average of all
previous data values. The table also summarizes the performance of the currently
selected model in fitting the historical data. It displays:
(1) The root mean squared error (RMSE)
24
(2) The mean absolute error (MAE)
(3) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE)
(4) The mean error (ME)
(5) The mean percentage error (MPE)

Each of the statistics is based on the one-ahead forecast errors, which are the differences
between the data value at time t and the forecast of that value made at time t-1. The first
three statistics measure the magnitude of the errors. A better model will give a smaller
value. The last two statistics measure bias. A better model will give a value close to 0.

Time Sequence Plot for Col_2

Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

160
actual
forecast
95.0% limits
120
Col_2

80

40

0
1960 1980 2000 2020 2040
Col_1

Figure 4.1 Time Series Plot for table 4.1 (Estimation Period)

This plot shows the observed and forecasted values of Col_2. Also included on the plot
are 95.0% prediction limits for the forecasts. These limits show where the true value of
Col_2 at any point in the future is likely to be with 95.0% confidence.

25
Table 4.2 Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607
Period Data Forecast Residual
1961.0 15.29 15.2261 0.0639387
1962.0 13.15 15.2649 -2.11487
1963.0 10.95 13.9811 -3.03114
1964.0 27.76 12.1412 15.6188
1965.0 33.01 21.6218 11.3882
1966.0 29.42 28.5344 0.885552
1967.0 30.29 29.072 1.21802
1968.0 31.33 29.8113 1.51868
1969.0 29.67 30.7332 -1.06316
1970.0 32.68 30.0878 2.59218
1971.0 38.04 31.6613 6.37873
1972.0 41.05 35.5332 5.51684
1973.0 37.02 38.8819 -1.86188
1974.0 32.99 37.7517 -4.76172
1975.0 34.43 34.8614 -0.431356
1976.0 41.97 34.5995 7.37048
1977.0 41.11 39.0734 2.0366
1978.0 41.1 40.3096 0.790383
1979.0 41.22 40.7894 0.43062
1980.0 40.33 41.0508 -0.720766
1981.0 44.56 40.6133 3.94674
1982.0 46.48 43.0089 3.47107
1983.0 47.94 45.1159 2.82413
1984.0 48.67 46.8301 1.83988
1985.0 55.81 47.9469 7.86307
1986.0 56.89 52.7198 4.17019
1987.0 57.45 55.2511 2.19888
1988.0 58.51 56.5858 1.92416
1989.0 59.03 57.7538 1.2762
1990.0 59.69 58.5285 1.16154
1991.0 60.85 59.2335 1.61649
1992.0 57.17 60.2147 -3.04472
1993.0 119.79 58.3666 61.4234
1994.0 120.21 95.6506 24.5594
1995.0 110.64 110.558 0.0818465
1996.0 111.04 110.608 0.432166
1997.0 111.67 110.87 0.799841
1998.0 149.93 111.356 38.5743

26
 1999.0 120.48 134.77 -14.2903
2000.0 127.25 126.096 1.15392
2001.0 130.95 126.797 4.15349
2002.0 129.85 129.318 0.532321
2003.0 88.68 129.641 -40.9608
2004.0 129.31 104.778 24.5324
2005.0 103.17 119.669 -16.4988
2006.0 88.57 109.654 -21.084
2007.0 115.83 96.856 18.974
2008.0 117.68 108.373 9.30678
2009.0 110.36 114.022 -3.66244
2010.0 108.88 111.799 -2.91934
2011.0 115.78 110.027 5.7527
2012.0 109.0 113.519 -4.51919
2013.0 109.44 110.776 -1.33604
2014.0 111.61 109.965 1.64494
2015.0 97.18 110.964 -13.7835
2016.0 91.21 102.597 -11.3869
2017.0 91.54 95.6851 -4.14506
2018.0 92.87 93.169 -0.29901
2019.0 100.36 92.9875 7.37249

Table 4.3 Forecasting Period 2020 to 2031 with control Limits

Period Forecast Lower 95% Limit Upper 95% Limit
2020.0 97.4626 71.0672 123.858
2021.0 97.4626 66.585 128.34
2022.0 97.4626 62.6757 132.25
2023.0 97.4626 59.1633 135.762
2024.0 97.4626 55.9471 138.978
2025.0 97.4626 52.9627 141.963
2026.0 97.4626 50.1662 144.759
2027.0 97.4626 47.5261 147.399
2028.0 97.4626 45.0187 149.906
2029.0 97.4626 42.6259 152.299
2030.0 97.4626 40.3332 154.592
2031.0 97.4626 38.129 156.796

This table shows the forecasted values for Col_2. During the period where actual data is

27
available, it also displays the predicted values from the fitted model and the residuals
(data-forecast). For time periods beyond the end of the series, it shows 95.0% prediction
limits for the forecasts. These limits show where the true data value at a selected future
time is likely to be with 95.0% confidence, assuming the fitted model is appropriate for
the data. You can plot the forecasts by selecting Forecast Plot from the list of graphical
options. You can change the confidence level while viewing the plot if you press the
alternate mouse button and select Pane Options. To test whether the model fits the data
adequately, select Model Comparisons from the list of Tabular Options.

Forecast Plot for Col_2

Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

160
actual
forecast
95.0% limits
120
Col_2

80

40

0
2010 2014 2018 2022 2026 2030 2034
Col_1

Figure 4.2 Forecasting Plot for table 4.3

Model Comparison
Number of observations = 59

Models
(A) Random walk
(B) Random walk with drift = 1.46672
(C) Constant mean = 73.0363
(D) Linear trend = 15.5543 + 1.91607 t
(E) Quadratic trend = -1.56033 + 3.59947 t + -0.0280567 t^2
(F) Exponential trend = exp(3.14245 + 0.0326469 t)
(G) S-curve trend = exp(4.34408 + -2.81162 /t)

28
 (H) Simple moving average of 2 terms
(I) Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607
(J) Brown's linear exp. smoothing with alpha = 0.2978
(K) Holt's linear exp. smoothing with alpha = 0.578 and beta = 0.0288
(L) Brown's quadratic exp. smoothing with alpha = 0.201
(M) ARIMA(0,1,1)
(N) ARIMA(2,1,0)
(O) ARIMA(1,0,1)
(P) ARIMA(1,1,0)
(Q) ARIMA(0,1,2)
Table 4.4 Estimation Period

Model RMSE MAE MAPE ME MPE AIC HQC SBIC

(A) 14.6338 7.71155 10.0411 1.46672 1.5646 5.36667 5.36667 5.36667
(B) 14.6873 7.72594 10.3455 -2.45015E-16 -1.27898 5.40786 5.4216 5.44307
(C) 38.3936 35.2983 77.9095 -5.78069E-15 -47.2939 7.32968 7.34342 7.36489
(D) 19.9472 14.673 20.6262 -9.87534E-15 -7.23039 6.05397 6.08146 6.1244
(E) 18.6881 14.9933 24.5632 1.20431E-15 -2.24255 5.95747 5.99871 6.06311
(F) 26.1737 16.4781 20.8711 1.37989 -4.2973 6.5973 6.6248 6.66773
(G) 32.5195 28.11 44.7853 8.2009 -11.2586 7.03148 7.05897 7.1019
(H) 14.2948 8.31754 11.0824 2.21053 2.87479 5.3537 5.36744 5.38891
(I) 13.5829 7.44594 10.238 2.29628 2.91902 5.25152 5.26526 5.28673
(J) 13.9615 8.32475 11.3303 0.203737 1.58619 5.3065 5.32024 5.34171
(K) 13.6697 8.13179 12.1619 -1.68919 -4.5244 5.29817 5.32566 5.36859
(L) 14.5243 9.06976 12.4421 -0.149603 0.503219 5.38555 5.39929 5.42076
(M) 13.7015 7.56834 10.3971 2.32847 2.95223 5.26891 5.28266 5.30412
(N) 13.6647 7.5835 10.377 2.36642 3.14648 5.29742 5.32491 5.36785
(O) 13.6718 7.41504 10.1921 1.51726 2.18868 5.29847 5.32596 5.36889
(P) 13.9448 7.90223 10.5825 1.91571 2.2476 5.30411 5.31786 5.33932
(Q) 13.8183 7.55574 10.3767 2.29392 2.90327 5.31979 5.34728 5.39021

29
 Table 4.5 Models is adequate for the data

Model RMSE RUNS RUNM AUTO MEAN VAR

(A) 14.6338 OK OK OK OK ***
(B) 14.6873 OK OK OK OK ***
(C) 38.3936 *** *** *** *** **
(D) 19.9472 *** *** *** * ***
(E) 18.6881 *** *** *** * **
(F) 26.1737 *** *** *** OK ***
(G) 32.5195 *** *** *** *** ***
(H) 14.2948 OK OK OK OK ***
(I) 13.5829 ** OK OK OK ***
(J) 13.9615 *** * OK OK ***
(K) 13.6697 ** OK OK OK ***
(L) 14.5243 *** *** OK OK ***
(M) 13.7015 * OK OK OK ***
(N) 13.6647 * OK OK OK ***
(O) 13.6718 ** OK OK OK ***
(P) 13.9448 OK OK OK OK ***
(Q) 13.8183 * OK OK OK ***

RMSE = Root Mean Squared Error

RUNS = Test for excessive runs up and down
RUNM = Test for excessive runs above and below median
AUTO = Ljung-Box test for excessive autocorrelation
MEAN = Test for difference in mean 1st half to 2nd half
VAR = Test for difference in variance 1st half to 2nd half
OK = not significant (p >= 0.05)
* = marginally significant (0.01 < p <= 0.05)
** = significant (0.001 < p <= 0.01)
*** = highly significant (p <= 0.001)
This table compares the results of fitting different models to the data. The model with the
lowest value of the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) is model I, which has been used
to generate the forecasts.
The table also summarizes the results of five tests run on the residuals to determine
whether each model is adequate for the data. An OK means that the model passes the

30
test. One * means that it fails at the 95% confidence level. Two *'s means that it fails at
the 99% confidence level. Three *'s means that it fails at the 99.9% confidence level.
Note that the currently selected model, model we, pass 3 tests. Since one or more tests
are statistically significant at the 95% or higher confidence level, you should seriously
consider selecting another model.

Residual Normal Probability Plot

Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

99.9

99
95

80
percentage

50

20

5
1

0.1
-50 -30 -10 10 30 50 70
Residual

Figure 4.3 Residual Normal Probability Plot

This graph shows a normal probability plot for the residuals from the fitted model. To
create this plot, the residuals have been sorted from smallest to largest. They have then
been plotted versus the values (i-0.375)/(n+0.25), where n is the number of residuals. If
the residuals come from a normal distribution, the points should fall approximately along
a straight line. To help you judge how close to a straight line they are, a reference line
has been superimposed on the plot. The reference line passes through the median with
slope determined from the interquartile range. If the points show significant curvature, it
may well be an indication of skewness in the residuals.

31
 Table 4.6 Estimated Autocorrelations for residuals
Data variable: Col_2
Model: Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

Lag Autocorrelation Stnd. Error Lower 95.0% Prob. Upper 95.0% Prob.
Limit Limit
1 -0.0380607 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
2 -0.0863254 0.130377 -0.255535 0.255535
3 0.127561 0.131343 -0.257427 0.257427
4 0.0929765 0.133426 -0.26151 0.26151
5 -0.0664336 0.134519 -0.263654 0.263654
6 0.0394497 0.135074 -0.264742 0.264742
7 0.0402308 0.13527 -0.265124 0.265124
8 -0.114114 0.135472 -0.265521 0.265521
9 -0.0311065 0.137092 -0.268695 0.268695
10 -0.107184 0.137211 -0.26893 0.26893
11 0.112943 0.138623 -0.271697 0.271697
12 -0.102041 0.140174 -0.274737 0.274737
13 -0.0189447 0.141428 -0.277193 0.277193
14 0.0904834 0.141471 -0.277278 0.277278
15 0.0196672 0.142448 -0.279194 0.279194
16 -0.0458306 0.142494 -0.279284 0.279284
17 -0.0204289 0.142744 -0.279773 0.279773
18 -0.0573806 0.142793 -0.27987 0.27987
19 -0.100246 0.143184 -0.280635 0.280635

This table shows the estimated autocorrelations between the residuals at various lags.
The lag k autocorrelation coefficient measures the correlation between the residuals at
time t and time t-k. Also shown are 95.0% probability limits around 0. If the probability
limits at a particular lag do not contain the estimated coefficient, there is a statistically
significant correlation at that lag at the 95.0% confidence level. In this case, none of the
24 autocorrelations coefficients are statistically significant, implying that the time series
may well be completely random (white noise). You can plot the autocorrelation
coefficients by selecting Residual Autocorrelation Function from the list of Graphical
Options.

32
 Residual Autocorrelations for Col_2
Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

0.6
Autocorrelations

0.2

-0.2

-0.6

-1
0 4 8 12 16 20
lag

Figure 4.4 Residual Autocorrelation for Col_2

This graph shows the estimated autocorrelations between the residuals at various lags.
The lag k autocorrelation coefficient measures the correlation between the residuals at
time t and time t-k. Also shown are 95.0% probability limits around 0. If the probability
limits at a particular lag do not contain the estimated coefficient, there is a statistically
significant correlation at that lag at the 95.0% confidence level. In this case, none of the
24 autocorrelations coefficients are statistically significant, implying that the time series
may well be completely random (white noise).

33
 Table 4.7 Estimated Partial Autocorrelations for residuals
Data variable: Col_2
Model: Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

Lag Partial Stnd. Error Lower 95.0% Prob. Upper 95.0% Prob.
Autocorrelation Limit Limit
1 -0.0380607 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
2 -0.0879014 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
3 0.121757 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
4 0.0966804 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
5 -0.0398025 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
6 0.0357707 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
7 0.0119515 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
8 -0.106386 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
9 -0.0361927 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
10 -0.147905 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
11 0.13089 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
12 -0.0901659 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
13 0.0230584 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
14 0.0832159 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
15 0.0208042 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
16 -0.00187329 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
17 -0.0654274 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
18 -0.124537 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166
19 -0.0867708 0.130189 -0.255166 0.255166

This table shows the estimated partial autocorrelations between the residuals at various
lags. The lag k partial autocorrelation coefficient measures the correlation between the
residuals at time t and time t+k having accounted for the correlations at all lower lags. It
can be used to judge the order of autoregressive model needed to fit the data. Also shown
are 95.0% probability limits around 0. If the probability limits at a particular lag do not
contain the estimated coefficient, there is a statistically significant correlation at that lag
at the 95.0% confidence level. In this case, none of the 24 partial autocorrelations
coefficients is statistically significant at the 95.0% confidence level. You can plot the
partial autocorrelation coefficients by selecting Partial Autocorrelation Function from the
list of Graphical Options.

34
 Residual Partial Autocorrelations for Col_2
Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

Partial Autocorrelations 0.6

0.2

-0.2

-0.6

-1
0 4 8 12 16 20
lag

Figure 4.5 Residual for Partial Autocorrelation

This graph shows the estimated partial autocorrelations between the residuals at various
lags. The lag k partial autocorrelation coefficient measures the correlation between the
residuals at time t and time t+k having accounted for the correlations at all lower lags. It
can be used to judge the order of autoregressive model needed to fit the data. Also shown
are 95.0% probability limits around 0. If the probability limits at a particular lag do not
contain the estimated coefficient, there is a statistically significant correlation at that lag
at the 95.0% confidence level. In this case, none of the 24 partial autocorrelations
coefficients is statistically significant at the 95.0% confidence level.

35
 Table 4.8 Periodogram for residuals
Data variable: Col_2
Model: Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

I Frequency Period Ordinate Cumulative Sum Integrated

Periodogram
0 0.0 2.0965E-29 2.0965E-29 2.01788E-33

1 0.0169492 59.0 455.465 455.465 0.0438386

2 0.0338983 29.5 566.898 1022.36 0.0984026
3 0.0508475 19.6667 152.37 1174.73 0.113068
4 0.0677966 14.75 705.369 1880.1 0.18096
5 0.0847458 11.8 197.717 2077.82 0.199991
6 0.101695 9.83333 31.3408 2109.16 0.203007
7 0.118644 8.42857 119.289 2228.45 0.214489
8 0.135593 7.375 277.217 2505.67 0.241171
9 0.152542 6.55556 229.331 2735.0 0.263244
10 0.169492 5.9 259.565 2994.56 0.288227
11 0.186441 5.36364 489.664 3484.23 0.335358
12 0.20339 4.91667 401.399 3885.63 0.373992
13 0.220339 4.53846 175.852 4061.48 0.390918
14 0.237288 4.21429 397.597 4459.08 0.429187
15 0.254237 3.93333 193.064 4652.14 0.447769
16 0.271186 3.6875 830.941 5483.08 0.527748
17 0.288136 3.47059 557.021 6040.1 0.581361
18 0.305085 3.27778 617.42 6657.52 0.640788
19 0.322034 3.10526 436.097 7093.62 0.682762
20 0.338983 2.95 396.284 7489.9 0.720905
21 0.355932 2.80952 592.743 8082.65 0.777956
22 0.372881 2.68182 326.47 8409.12 0.809379
23 0.389831 2.56522 182.056 8591.17 0.826902
24 0.40678 2.45833 6.81172 8597.98 0.827558
25 0.423729 2.36 376.377 8974.36 0.863784
26 0.440678 2.26923 443.384 9417.74 0.90646
27 0.457627 2.18519 465.433 9883.18 0.951258
28 0.474576 2.10714 410.019 10293.2 0.990722
29 0.491525 2.03448 96.3906 10389.6 1.0

This table shows the periodogram ordinates for the residuals. It is often used to identify

36
cycles of fixed frequency in the data. The periodogram is constructed by fitting a series
of sine functions at each of 30 frequencies. The ordinates are equal to the squared
amplitudes of the sine functions. The periodogram can be thought of as an analysis of
variance by frequency, since the sum of the ordinates equals the total corrected sum of
squares in an ANOVA table. You can plot the periodogram ordinates by selecting
Periodogram from the list of Graphical Options.

Residual Periodogram for Col_2

Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

1000

800

600
Ordinate

400

200

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
frequency

Figure 4.6 Residual Periodgram for Col_2

This plot shows the periodogram ordinates for the residuals. It is often used to identify
cycles of fixed frequency in the data. The periodogram is constructed by fitting a series
of sine functions at each of 30 frequencies. The ordinates are equal to the squared
amplitudes of the sine functions. The periodogram can be thought of as an analysis of
variance by frequency, since the sum of the ordinates equals the total sum of squares in
an ANOVA table.

Tests for Randomness of residuals

Data variable: Col_2
Model: Simple exponential smoothing with alpha = 0.607

(1) Runs above and below median

37
 Median = 1.16154
Number of runs above and below median = 26
Expected number of runs = 30.0
Large sample test statistic z = 0.927315
P-value = 0.353761

(2) Runs up and down

Number of runs up and down = 30
Expected number of runs = 39.0
Large sample test statistic z = 2.66581
P-value = 0.00768032

(3) Ljung-Box Test

Test based on first 19 autocorrelations
Large sample test statistic = 8.38913
P-value = 0.972263

Three tests have been run to determine whether or not the residuals form a random
sequence of numbers. A sequence of random numbers is often called white noise, since it
contains equal contributions at many frequencies. The first test counts the number of
times the sequence was above or below the median. The number of such runs equals 26,
as compared to an expected value of 30.0 if the sequence were random. Since the P-
value for this test is greater than or equal to 0.05, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the
residuals are random at the 95.0% or higher confidence level. The second test counts the
number of times the sequence rose or fell. The number of such runs equals 30, as
compared to an expected value of 39.0 if the sequence were random. Since the P-value
for this test is less than 0.05, we can reject the hypothesis that the series is random at the
95.0% confidence level. The third test is based on the sum of squares of the first 24
autocorrelation coefficients. Since the P-value for this test is greater than or equal to
0.05, we cannot reject the hypothesis that the series is random at the 95.0% or higher
confidence level. Since the three tests are sensitive to different types of departures from

38
random behavior, failure to pass any test suggests that the residuals are not completely
random, and that the selected model does not capture all of the structure in the data.

Periodogram for Residuals

0.8

0.6
Ordinate

0.4

0.2

0
0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5
frequency

Figure 4.7 Periodgram for Residual

The integrated periodogram plots the cumulative sum of the periodogram ordinates. Also
shown are 95% and 99% Kolmogorov-Smirnov bounds. If the residuals form a purely
random time series, the integrated periodogram should fall approximately along the
diagonal line. Since it stays within the inner 95% bounds, we cannot reject the
hypothesis that the series is random at the 95% confidence level.

39
 Chapter 5

Conclusion

Dates are a variety of sweet fresh stone fruit that is also eaten dried. Dates are also a
good source of natural sugar. Granulated date sugar and date syrup are available in
many supermarkets. Once pitted, dates can be used in just about anything. Chopped and
added to salads or cookies or cakes, they bring their unique sweetness to all.

Pakistan’s first date dehydration plant and cold storage is going to be built soon by a
private firm in the Khairpur Special Economic Zone (SEZ). The Sindh government is
offering opportunities to businessmen who want to set up processing and storage
facilities. Date processing plants can ideally be established at the Khairpur SEZ,
developed by the district administration of Khairpur under the supervision of the Sindh
investment department.

Although Pakistan currently stands at fifth position in dates-producing countries, it can

easily improve its position and production by improving farm management, pre-
harvesting, harvesting, and post-harvesting practices. Pakistan has the capacity to supply
fully processed high-quality dates in various styles, shapes and forms, which include
pitted/ un-pitted whole dates, pressed date bricks, date chops, date paste in bulk, as well
as ready-to, and distribute small boxes/jars. Importers in other countries continue to buy
Pakistani dates only to add value and then re-export. This is the value being missed by
the country’s agricultural value chain. Dry dates dominate the country’s exports because
of high demand in India. However fresh dates fetch better prices, globally. Through
government support, in the form of financing and date farm infrastructure development,
Pakistani dates can fetch handsome foreign exchange.

In the present study, we use the data for the production of Dates for the period 1961 to
2018 collected from the source FAOSTAT (Food and Agriculture Organization
Corporate Statistical Database). In order to examine the nature of change and degree of
relationship in the production of Dates. We forecast the data for over the period of 2019
to 2031 and use different statistical models for estimating the production of dates. we
analyzed that the production of dates increase.

40
 References

1. Abbas, G., Fatima, Z., Riaz, F., Iqbal, P., Hussain, S., Zakir, I., ...& Ahmad, S. (2019).
Study of Sowing dates and Hybrids Effect in M aize-based Cropping System under Arid
Conditions of Southern Punjab, Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Life & Social
Sciences, 17(1).
2. Abid, S., Fatima, A., Naheed, S., Sarwar, A., & Khan, M. N. (2016). Double exponential
forecasting model for dates production in Pakistan. Pakistan Journal of Agricultural
Research, 29(3).
3. Abul-Soad, A. A., Mahdi, S. M., &Markhand, G. S. (2015). Date palm status and
perspective in Pakistan. In Date palm genetic resources and utilization (pp. 153-205).
Springer, Dordrecht.
4. Abul-Soad, A. A., Maitlo, W. A., Markhand, G. S., & Mahdi, S. M. (2011). Date palm
wilt disease (sudden decline syndrome) in Pakistan, symptoms and remedy. Bless
Tree, 3(4), 38-43.
5. Ali, M. A., Ali, M., Sattar, M., & Ali, L. (2010). Sowing date effect on yield of different
wheat varieties. J. Agric. Res, 48(2), 157-162.
6. Ali, W., Ali, M., Ahmad, Z., Iqbal, J., Anwar, S., & Kamal, M. K. A. (2018). Influence of
sowing dates on varying maize (Zea mays L.) varieties grown under agro-climatic
condition of Peshawar, Pakistan. European Journal of Experimental Biology, 8(6), 36.
7. Baloch, M. K., Saleem, S. A., Baloch, A. K., & Baloch, W. A. (2006). Impact of
controlled atmosphere on the stability of Dhakki dates. LWT-food Science and
Technology, 39(6), 671-676.
8. Baloch, M. S., Awan, I. U., & Hassan, G. (2006). Growth and yield of rice as affected by
transplanting dates and seedlings per hill under high temperature of Dera Ismail Khan,
Pakistan. Journal of Zhejiang University Science B, 7(7), 572-579.
9. Bashir, M. U., Akbar, N., Iqbal, A., & Zaman, H. (2010). Effect of different sowing dates
on yield and yield components of direct-seeded coarse rice (Oryza sativa L). Pak. J. Agri.
Sci, 47(4), 361-365.

41
10. Chandio, A. A., Jiang, Y., Joyo, M. A., &Rehman, A. (2016). Impact of area under
cultivation, water availability, credit disbursement, and fertilizer off-take on wheat
production in Pakistan. Journal of Applied Environmental and Biological Sciences, 6(10),
10-18.
11. Gul, H., & Ahmad, R. (2007). Effect of different sowing dates on the vegetative and
reproductive growth of canola (Brassica napus L.) cultivars under different salinity
levels. Pakistan Journal of Botany, 39(4), 1161.
12. Hussain, J., Khaliq, T., Rahman, M. H. U., Ullah, A., Ahmed, I., Srivastava, A. K., ...&
Ahmad, A. (2021). Effect of temperature on sowing dates of wheat under arid and semi-
arid climatic regions and impact quantification of climate change through mechanistic
modeling with evidence from field. Atmosphere, 12(7), 927.
13. Jatoi, M. A., Markhand, Z., &Solangi, N. (2009, July). Dates in Sindh: facts and figures.
In Proceedings of the “International Dates Seminar” organized by Date Palm Research
Institute, Shah Abdul Latif University, Khairpur, Sindh, Pakistan.
14. Kamal, K. N. T., & Iqbal, A. R. R. M. Effect of Irrigation on Chickpea Varieties Sown on
Different Dates on Irrigated Fields of Bannu, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.
15. Khushk, A. M., Memon, A., &Aujla, K. M. (2009). Marketing channels and margins of
dates in Sindh, Pakistan. Journal of Agricultural Research (03681157), 47(3).
16. Marwat, S. K., Usman, K., Khan, E. A., Ghulam, S., Baloch, J., Tauqeer, A. M.,
&Rehman, F. U. (2012). Ethnobotanical studies on dwarf palm (Nannorhopsritchieana
(Griff.) Aitchison) and date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.) in Dera Ismail Khan, KPK,
Pakistan. American Journal of Plant Sciences, 3(8), 1162.
17. Memon, M. I. N., Noonari, S., Kalwar, A. M., &Sial, S. A. (2015). Performance of date
palm production under contract farming in Khairpur Sindh Pakistan. Journal of Biology
Agriculture and Healthcare, 5, 19-27.
18. Mudassir, M. A., Rasul, F., Khaliq, T., &Yaseen, M. (2021). Conformance of sowing
dates for maximizing heat use efficiency and seed cotton yield in arid to semi-arid cotton
zone of Pakistan. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 1-15.
19. Naz, F. (2012). A univariate time series modelling of dates exports in Pakistan. Journal of
Contemporary Issues in Business Research, 1(2), 57-68.

42
20. Sarwar, M. A., Salman, M., Ghani, M. I., &Iqabal, M. (2013). Effect of Different
Planting Dates on Growth and Development of Gladiolus grandiflorus under the
Ecological Conditions of Faisalabad, Pakistan.
21. Tahir, M., Ali, A., Nadeem, M. A., Hussain, A., & Khalid, F. (2009). Effect of different
sowing dates on growth and yield of wheat (Triticumaestivum L.) varieties in district
Jhang, Pakistan. Pak. j. life soc.sci, 7(1), 66-69.
22. Zahoor, T., Saeed, F., & Ahmad, A. (2011). Antinutritional factors in some date palm
(Phoenix dactylifera L.) varieties grown in Pakistan. Internet Journal of Food Safety, 13,
386-390.
23. Zaid, A. (2010). The world date production: a challenging case study. Date Palm
Research and Development Programme. United Nations Office for Project
Services/UNOPS. Al Ain.

43