Name: Dranreb L.

Estayani Section: N1Ar Date: 9/15/2022 Rating:

Activity No. 4
CHANCE, PROBABILITIES AND GENETIC RATIOS

Probability is a mathematical measure of likelihood of an event. It is expressed as a

fraction whose denominator is the total number of equally possible events and whose numerator
is the number of event(s) that took place. It is best illustrated in coin flipping where the two
possible events are landing on tail and on head thus the probability of getting tail or head is ½.
The probability of an event is a positive number between 0 and 1, with 1 representing certainty
of success and 0 as certainty of failure.

The difference between the observed values and what you expect to obtain is called
deviation. Suppose you obtained 6 tails and 4 heads in one of the groups of 10 throws, then the
deviation would be 1 for tail (6-5) and 1 for heads (5-4) or a total of 2 out of 10 throws (20%)

Objectives:

At the end of the activity, you are expected to:

1. simulate probability, chance and ratios using one-coin and two-coin tosses,
2. exemplify the significance of probability, chance and ratios in genetic events,
3. compare probability of events in one-coin and two-coin tosses and relate these to genetic
events.

Materials:
Two 25-centavo coins

Procedure:
1. Using a 25-centavo coin, work in pairs (with your housemate), with one of you throwing
the coin and the other recording the results as to head or tail. Alternatingly, one of you
throw the coin 10 times until a total of 100 throws has been done. Enter your data in
Table 1.
2. Combine the results of the class and record in Table 2.
3. Calculate the deviations for each of the 10 groups of throws as well as for the total 100
throws expressing them as percentages. The deviation is computed by determining the
difference between the observed and number of expected. The number of expected is 5
for both tails and heads in a throw of 10.
Ex.
No. Number of Tails Number of Heads Deviation from Expected Value
Throw
s Observed Expected Observed Expected Tails Head Total %

1 5 5 5 5 0 0 0/10 0%
2 8 5 2 5 3 3 6/10 60%

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 4. Now, each team should throw two coins at the same time. To distinguish one coin from
the other, mark one of them with a pentel pen or ink spot and call it coin II. Record
results in Table 3. As in the previous activity, let one student throw the coins first, while
the other one records and vice versa. Make a total of 100 throws, then combine the results
of the whole class in Table 4.

Data:
Table 1. Individual group tally sheet for a single-coin toss.

No. Number of Tails Number of Heads Deviation from Expected Value

Throw
s Observed Expected Observed Expected Tails Head Total %

1 4 5 6 5 1 1 2/10 20%
2 3 5 7 5 2 2 4/10 40%
3 5 5 5 5 0 0 0/10 0%
4 9 5 1 5 4 4 8/10 80%
5 7 5 3 5 2 2 4/10 40%
6 6 5 4 5 1 1 2/10 20%
7 2 5 8 5 3 3 6/10 60%
8 1 5 9 5 4 4 8/10 80%
9 10 5 0 5 5 0 5/10 50%
10 6 5 4 5 1 1 2/10 20%

Group of 10 Number of Tails Number of Heads Deviation from

Throws Expected Value
1 4 6 2
2 3 7 4
3 5 5 0
4 9 1 8
5 7 3 4

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 6 6 4 2
7 2 8 6
8 1 9 8
9 10 0 5
10 6 4 2

Table 2. Class Tally Sheet for Single-coin Toss.

Group Number of Tails Number of Heads Deviation from
Expected Value
1 29 21 8
2 22 28 6
3 18 32 14
4 28 22 6
5 26 24 2
6 27 23 4
7 24 26 2
8 22 28 6
9 26 24 2
10 28 22 6

Table 3. Individual group tally sheet for two-coin toss.

Combinations Observed Number Expected Deviation from
Number Expected
Coin I Coin II
Head Head 22 25 3
Head Tail 27 25 2
Tail Head 23 25 2
Tail Tail 28 25 3

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 Tot 100 100 10
al

Table 4. Class tally sheet for two-coin toss.

Combinations Observed Number Expected Deviation from
Number Expected
Coin I Coin II
Head Head 127 125 2
Head Tail 120 125 5
Tail Head 124 125 1
Tail Tail 129 125 4
Tota 520 500
l

Discussion Questions:
1. In every group of 10 throws, did you exactly get ½ heads and ½ tails? Why or why not?
No, I did not do so. Perhaps because the likelihood of getting ½ is uncertain. I once received
exactly ½ heads and ½ tails, resulting in 0 deviations from the expected value and 50%, but I
only got it by luck, which I suppose is how probability works. There are numerous aspects that
influence how you will receive a specific result that is outside our control. Probability only
computes and predicts the outcome; it does not manipulate it.

2. Is the total of 100 throws closer to ½ heads and ½ tails than the 10 throws? Why or why
not?

It is, indeed. Based on the tally and the data I collected in table 3, which required me to throw
two coins 100 times, I got all of the data that was close to the expected value of 25. The observed
value showed the head/head outcome 22 times, head/tails 27 times, tails/tails 23 times, and
tails/head 28 times. This simply indicates that the more you toss a coin, especially two coins, the
more likely it is that the observed value will be close to the expected value.

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 3. How do the deviations of the small groups of 10 compare with the deviation of 100
throws?

There is no distinction. When I computed the deviation in table 1, which requires only one coin,
and the deviation in table 3, which requires two coins, I got less than ten. Perhaps this is due to
the fact that both tables have the same amount of throws.

4. What is the importance of sample size in studies involving probabilities?

The sample size is important because it determines the outcome of the study. There will be no
expected and observed values, as well as deviations and percentages of the results, without the
sample size, which is in the case of probability the number of throws.

5. In the two-coin toss, how many combinations did you expect? What is the probability
that any one of the expected combinations will be obtained?

4 combinations. It is head/head, head/tail, tail/tail, tail/head. The probability that I will get heads
and tails is ½.

6. Does combining the class results give a smaller deviation from the expected? Why or
why not?

It doesn’t change the amount of deviation. As long as the difference between the
observed value and expected value is not too far from each other, the result will always
be small.

7. How is the probability of a combination (HH, HT, TH or TT) related to the probabilities
of its components (H or T)?

H and T are the two sides of a coin. If you'll toss it you'll get either of the two if you are using
only one coin. But if you use two coins the result will no longer be H and T anymore, but rather
HH, HT, TT, and TH. These combinations of the side of the coin is the outcome of the
probability of the throws.

8. How does the chance of a coin landing on each side compare to the chance that a gamete
cell will receive a particular gene at meiosis?

The likelihood of a coin landing on one side or the other is related to a gamete cell developing in
a specific gene during meiosis because there is a 50% chance that one of the genes will gain the
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right to develop over the other because there are only two providing cells. As a result, we have a
50% chance on either side.

Critical Insights
I find it difficult because of the task of tossing coins multiple times. It’s timely and it requires
effort. However when I already got the data, tallying it in the table and computing it’s deviation
is already easy. Hence, answering the guide questions.

Reference:
Barrion, A., G. Diaz., R. Laude, M. Mendioro, J. Mendoza, J., & D. Ramirez. (2010).
Genetics: Laboratory Manual, 12th edition. Genetics and Molecular Biology
Division, Institute of Biological Sciences, College of Arts and Sciences, UPLB, Laguna.

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