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Market Microstructure Term Paper
Market Microstructure Term Paper
Market Microstructure Term Paper
PhD Finance
July 9, 2022
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Title: Market Microstructure and Asset Pricing
Abstract
This paper discusses market microstructure and asset pricing. It explores an empirical analysis of
market microstructure and asset pricing, market microstructure and risk metrics, return volatility:
realized volatility, range- based volatility measures and market microstructure and information
disclosures.
Table of Contents
1. Introduction
2. Empirical review
1. Introduction
Asset pricing is developed around the concept of a state-price deflator which relates the price of
any asset to its future (risky) dividends and thus incorporates how to adjust for both time and risk
in asset valuation.
2. Empirical review
In all asset pricing models, returns to investors are regarded as the compensation for facing
systematic risks, also called market risks, because they are tied to broader economic factors
(Goyal, 2012). The main difference among the asset pricing models is what variables or
indicators represent the systematic risk in asset pricing models. In an early work, Markowitz
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(1959) developed a specific measure of portfolio risk and built a foundation for developing asset
pricing models, named portfolio theory. He argues that the main incentive for a risk-averse
investor who focuses on the mean and variance of the returns of every single asset included in a
portfolio is earning the highest possible profit given the lowest potential risk. Building on the
fact that investors tend to maximize the mean and minimize their investment variance,
Markowitz (1959) proves that investors' optimal choice is a portfolio selected from the efficient
frontier. Later, Tobin (1958), using the separation theorem, showed that the single market
portfolio is the efficient frontier that dominates any other combination. The capital asset pricing
model (CAPM), which relates the expected rate of return of an individual asset to a measure of
its systematic risk, is introduced and developed by Sharpe (1964) and Treynor (1961). Lintner
(1969), Mossin (1966), and Black (1972) extended this simple theory such that market portfolio
returns are treated as a single factor whose exposure determines expected returns. In portfolio
theory, an asset's price is exogenously given and cannot be affected by any investor, while
CAPM assumes that an asset's price is determined through an equilibrium of the market.
Generally, and relying on rational expectations, most of the empirical studies examining cross-
sectional asset pricing models assume that investors price assets according to the basic pricing
(𝑐𝑡+1)/(𝑢′(𝑐𝑡)) is denoted as the stochastic discount factor (SDF) or pricing kernel based on a
representative investor's preferences 𝛽 and 𝑅𝑖,𝑡+1 is the return of an asset at time 𝑡 + 1 and is
his recursive utility function proposed by Epstein and Zin (1991) and Weil (1990).
Jensen et al. (1972), Fama and MacBeth (1973), and Blume and Friend (1973) are the studies
that support the CAPM. However, since the late 1970s, some empirical literature documents the
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CAPM's failure in explaining cross-sectional return predictability. Return anomalies are other
examples of CAPM failure in explaining the cross-section variation of stock returns. Basu (1977)
and Ball (1978) discover that higher returns are observed for the firms with lower price-earnings
ratios (a negative relation between price-earnings (𝑃/𝐸) ratio and average return). Miller and
Scholes (1972) find that stocks with lower price gain higher returns. According to Banz (1981),
stocks with a small market capitalization (small firm premium) earn higher returns than large-
capitalization stocks. Bhandari (1988) found that a highly leveraged firm (high ratio of the book
value of debt to the equity market value) earns abnormally high returns. Similarly, Rosenberg et
al., (1985) found that firms with a high book-to-market equity (B/M) ratio earn higher returns
than ones with a low book-to-market ratio. The existing evidence in the literature shows that
2012). The value premium concept was introduced by Fama and French (1992), the implication
being that value stocks earn higher average returns than stocks with low book-to-market ratios
(i.e., growth stocks). They also show that, on average, small (capitalization) stocks earn a higher
return than large stocks. They find that the difference in betas of small vs. large stocks and value
vs. growth stocks is not enough to explain average returns' differences. Fama and French (1992),
however, argue that size (market value of equity) and book-to-market (B/M) ratio jointly explain
the cross-sectional difference in expected stock returns associated with the price-based variables
such as P/E ratio, B/M ratio, size, and leverage. This influential study motivated Fama and
French to introduce the most prominent factor model in the literature. Fama and French (1993)
propose a three-factor model consisting of market index return, 𝑅𝑚, the return difference
between large and small stock portfolios, 𝑆𝑀𝐵, and the difference in returns between portfolios
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Numerous studies in the literature, however, show that the Fama-French three-factor model is
profitability-based anomalies (Cochrane, 2009; Cooper & Maio, 2019; Fama & French, 2015;
Fama & French, 1996; Hou et al., 2015 & Maio, 2013). Jegadeesh and Titman (1993) define the
Moskowitz and Grinblatt (1999), the pattern by which assets in past winning industries continue
to earn a higher return than stocks in past losing industries is described as industry momentum.
Profitability or Return-on-equity (ROE) anomaly corresponds to the state that stocks with higher
ROE generate higher returns than stocks with lower ROE (Balakrishnan et al., 2010; Fama &
French, 2008; Haugen & Baker, 1996; Jegadeesh & Livnat, 2006 & Novy-Marx, 2013). Cooper
et al. (2008) and Hou et al. (2015) introduce asset growth anomaly as a pattern where stocks of
firms with low asset growth earn higher average returns than stocks of firms with higher asset
growth. The investment anomaly is associated with the state when the average returns earned by
stocks of firms with a higher investment are lower than those with less investment ( Fama &
French, 2008 & Xing, 2008). To overcome the incapability of traditional factor models in
explaining the cross-section dispersion and correct the momentum anomaly in the Fama and
French three-factor model, Carhart (1997) introduced a new factor called momentum factor
(UMD). Empirical evidence provides significant evidence about the relationship between stock
returns and profitability and investment after controlling Fama and French's three factors
(Aharoni et al., 2013 & Novy-Marx, 2013 among others). Relying on the present-value valuation
model of Miller and Modigliani (1961), Fama and French (2015, 2016) add profitability (𝑅𝑀𝑊)
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and investment (or asset growth, 𝐶𝑀𝐴) into their three factors model. They propose a five-factor
model that can describe investment-based and profitability-based anomalies. They define the
profitability (𝑅𝑀𝑊) factor as a difference between the return of the portfolio of stocks with high
and low operating profitability. The investment (𝐶𝑀𝐴) factor is defined as the difference in
returns of the portfolio of assets with conservative and aggressive investment. They document
that compared to Fama and French (1993), the five-factor model performs better.
The failure of CAPM in explaining the cross-section returns dispersion also motivated some
researchers to introduce other asset pricing models such as Intertemporal CAPM (ICAPM).
CAPM assumes investors maximize their expected utility of wealth in a single period model. In
contrast, Merton (1973) derives an intertemporal capital asset pricing model, ICAPM, where
investors maximize their expected utility of lifetime consumption and assets are traded
continuously at every point of time. With ICAPM, investors' current demands for portfolios are
ICAPM of Merton (1973) asserts that expected returns are the reward to investors for bearing the
market risk and taking the risk of adverse changes in the investment opportunity set. Therefore,
risky assets with no exposure to the market risk, a beta of zero, may have higher expected returns
than the risk-free rate of return due to the exposure to an adverse change in the state variable.
The static CAPM does not explain such a relation. Therefore, the ICAPM is a linear factor
model, including the market portfolio and additional factors built on the innovations in one (or
more) state variables. According to static CAPMs, excess returns compensate investors for
bearing systematic risk and taking on an unexpected change in the state variable. The intuition is
that in general, investors will pay more for assets that perform well when future investment
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opportunities are expected to worsen, which causes expected returns to plunge. Due to their
ability to hedge against adverse changes in investment opportunities, these assets require a
smaller risk premium. Investors will, however, demand a higher price for holding assets that do
Risk measures are statistical measures that are historical predictors of investment risk
and volatility, and they are also major components in modern portfolio theory (MPT)/ mean
variance theory/ Markowitz portfolio theory. MPT is a standard financial and academic
its benchmark index.
There are five principal risk measures, and each measure provides a unique way to assess the
risk present in investments that are under consideration. The five measures include
investments, it is wise to compare like for like to determine which investment holds the most
3.1 Profit-at-Risk (PaR) is a risk management quantity most often used for electricity
portfolios that contain some mixture of generation assets, trading contracts and end-user
portfolio of physical and financial assets, analyzed by time periods in which the energy is
delivered. For example, the expected profitability and associated downside risk (PaR)
might be calculated and monitored for each of the forward looking 24 months. The
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measure considers both price risk and volume risk (e.g. due to uncertainty in electricity
generation volumes or consumer demand). Mathematically, the PaR is the quantile of the
profit distribution of a portfolio. Since weather related volume risk drivers can be
represented in the form of historical weather records over many years, a Monte-Carlo
3.2 Value at Risk (VAR) is a statistic that is used in risk management to predict the greatest
possible losses over a specific time frame. VAR is determined by three variables: a
specific time period, a confidence level, and the size of the possible loss. There are three
1. One way of calculating VAR is based on historical data, assuming that future returns
2. The variance-covariance method assumes that returns will follow a normal statistical
distribution.
3. A Monte Carlo simulation creates a simplified model that predicts future stock returns
3.3 The economic value of equity (EVE) is a cash flow calculation that takes the present
value of all asset cash flows and subtracts the present value of all liability cash flows.
Unlike earnings at risk and value at risk (VAR), a bank uses the economic value of equity
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Harry Markowitz (1952) considered and rejected the idea that an investor could combine
increasing their wealth and minimize their risk associated with the potential gain. A portfolio is a
collection of different investments held by an investor. He explained that, “the portfolio with the
maximum expected return is not necessarily the one with the minimum variance. There is a rate
at which the investor can gain expected return by taking on variance, or reduce variance by
giving up expected return”. He notes, “In trying to make the variance small it is not enough to
invest in many securities with high covariances among themselves”. Covariance is the degree to
which two variables move together relative to their means (average) over time. A positive sign
would indicate a positive covariance in the sense that if one variable is increasing relative to its
mean then the other variable would also increase relative to its mean. A negative covariance
indicates that if one variable is increasing relative to its mean the other would be reducing
relative to its mean thus using the negative covariance the investor is able to diversify his
Markowitz came up with the efficient frontier, which represents the best attainable combination
of assets for an individual portfolio. An efficient frontier could also be defined as a set of
portfolio’s combination that contain the maximum possible return for a given level of risk or the
minimum level of risk for a given level of return. All investors would like to get portfolio of
asset combinations along the frontier to get a trade-off between expected return and risk. It is
Markowitz explains that an investor will choose a portfolio at the point of tangency between the
investor’s utility curve and the Markowitz efficient frontier. Roy (1952) also supports Markowitz
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and represented his problem, with risk as the independent variable and expected return as the
dependent variable, was adopted as a standard to the finance profession. Markowitz is regarded
Volatility refers to the rate at which the price of a security increases or decreases for a given set
of returns. Volatility is measured by calculating the standard deviation of the annualized returns
over a given period of time. It shows the range to which the price of a security may increase or
decrease. Volatility measures the risk of a security. It is used in option pricing formula to gauge
the fluctuations in the returns of the underlying assets. Volatility indicates the pricing behavior of
the security and helps estimate the fluctuations that may happen in a short period of time. If the
prices of a security fluctuate rapidly in a short time span, it is termed to have high volatility. If
the prices of a security fluctuate slowly in a longer time span, it is termed to have low volatility.
measures how much a security moves over a certain period. The individual types of volatility
i. What that period is (historical volatility is for some period in the past, while future or
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ii. How we find or calculate the volatility (implied volatility is calculated from option
1. The wider the swings in an investment's price, the harder emotionally it is to not worry.
3. When certain cash flows from selling a security are needed at a specific future date,
4. Higher volatility of returns while saving for retirement results in a wider distribution of
5. Higher volatility of return when retired gives withdrawals a larger permanent impact on
6. Price volatility presents opportunities to buy assets cheaply and sell when overpriced;
7. Portfolio volatility has a negative impact on the compound annual growth rate (CAGR)
of that portfolio.
Volatility is particularly important for option traders, because it affects options prices (or option
values). In general, higher volatility makes options more valuable, and vice versa. The subtle
difference between an option's price and its value is key to understanding the difference between
implied and realized volatility. Price is what you pay. Value is what you get. To make a profit
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you must buy high value for low price (or sell low value for high price). This is true when
Implied volatility is what you pay – it is the volatility implied (contained or reflected) in an
option's price. Option pricing models such as the Black-Scholes model can calculate exact option
price for a particular level of volatility (assuming we also know the other factors, such as the
option's strike price, time to expiration, or underlying price). They can also be reversed to find
the exact volatility that is implied in a particular option price. This is how we calculate implied
volatility – from option prices. Therefore, implied volatility is the future volatility expected by
Realized volatility is what you get – it is the volatility actually realized in the underlying market.
It can be calculated from underlying price moves (e.g., daily stock price changes). Although
there are various approaches, the most common way is to calculate realized volatility as standard
deviation of daily logarithmic returns. This is why realized volatility is sometimes called
statistical volatility. Option prices don't affect realized volatility in any way. In fact, you can
calculate realized volatility even for securities without any options on them. On the contrary,
there is no implied volatility without options. At the same time, when there are multiple options
listed on the same underlying and same expiration (calls and puts, different strikes), each of these
options can have different implied volatility (this is very common and known as volatility skew
or smile).
While implied volatility is always forward looking (it is the expected volatility from now until
the option's expiration), realized volatility can relate either to the past (then it is called historical
volatility) or the future (then it is called future realized volatility). Another important
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characteristic of realized volatility (historical or future) is the length of the period over which it is
measured. For example, "20-day historical volatility" measures realized volatility over last 20
days (it is typically calculated as standard deviation of last 20 daily price changes).
When talking about future volatility, we must distinguish between our opinion or prediction of
what the future volatility will be – this is often called forecast volatility – and the reality, which
we will only know after it happens – the future realized volatility. Our ability to forecast
volatility is essential for successful option trading – we want our forecast volatility (what we
think will happen) to be as close as possible to the future realized volatility (what actually
happens). If we can do that consistently, we only need to buy options which are underpriced
relative to our expectation (the option's implied volatility is lower than our forecast volatility) or
sell options which are overpriced (implied volatility is higher than our forecast volatility). This
won't guarantee that we make a profit on one particular trade (besides volatility there are other
factors affecting option prices, including particularly underlying price direction, though these can
be hedged). However, it should make us profitable in the long run, over a large number of trades.
Therefore, Implied volatility is calculated from an option's price. It is the volatility that the
buyers and sellers of this particular option expect to be realized in the period from now until the
option's expiration. Different options can have different implied volatilities, even when they are
on the same underlying and with the same expiration date. Realized volatility is calculated from
underlying price changes over a certain. If this certain period is in the past, we call it historical
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5.1 Introduction
Asset volatility, a measure of risk, plays a crucial role in many areas of finance and economics.
Therefore, volatility modelling and forecasting become one of the most developed parts of
financial econometrics. However, since the volatility is not directly observable, the first problem
which must be dealt with before modelling or forecasting is always a volatility measurement (or,
more precisely, estimation). Consider stock price over several days. From a statistician’s point of
view, daily relative changes of stock price (stock returns) are almost random. Moreover, even
though daily stock returns are typically of a magnitude of 1% or 2%, they are approximately
equally often positive and negative, making average daily return very close to zero. The most
natural measure for how much stock price changes is the variance of the stock returns. Variance
can be easily calculated and it is a natural measure of the volatility. However, this way we can
get only an average volatility over an investigated time period. This might not be sufficient,
because volatility changes from one day to another. When we have daily closing prices and we
need to estimate volatility on a daily basis, the only estimate we have is squared (demeaned)
daily return. This estimate is very noisy, but since it is very often the only one, we have, it is
commonly used. In fact, we can look at most of the volatility models (e.g., GARCH class of
models or stochastic volatility models) in such a way that daily volatility is first estimated as
squared returns and consequently processed by applying time series techniques. When not only
daily closing prices, but intraday high frequency data are available too, we can estimate daily
volatility more precisely. However, high frequency data are in many cases not available at all or
available only over a shorter time horizon and costly to obtain and work with. Moreover, due to
market microstructure effects the volatility estimation from high frequency data is rather a
complex issue. However, closing prices are not the only easily available daily data. For the most
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of financial assets, daily open, high and low prices are available too. Range, the difference
between high and low prices is a natural candidate for the volatility estimation. The assumption
that the stock return follows a Brownian motion with zero drift during the day allows Parkinson
(1980) to formalize this intuition and derive a volatility estimator for the diffusion parameter of
the Brownian motion. This estimator based on the range (the difference between high and low
prices) is much less noisy than squared returns. Garman and Klass (1980) subsequently introduce
estimator based on open, high, low and close prices, which is even less noisy.
5.2.1 Parkinson
Parkinson (1980) introduced the first advanced volatility estimator based only on high and low
prices, (the current day’s high during the trading interval (Hi) and the current day’s low during
the trading interval (Li)). As Parkinson measure does not take into account the opening jumps,
the Parkinson volatility estimator tends to underestimate the volatility. On the other hand, since it
does not handle drift [and assumes that drift is zero], in a trendy market it may overestimate the
5.2.2 Garman-Klass
Garman and Klass proposed an estimator that is based on all commonly available prices of the
current day of trading open-high-low-close chart (OHLC). The Garman–Klass estimator includes
opening and closing prices for the current trading day. From this perspective, the estimator
extends and improves the performance offered by the Parkinson estimator. It does not include the
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5.3 Conclusion
Volatility is not directly observable and must be estimated. Estimator based on daily close data is
imprecise. Range-based volatility estimators provide significantly more precision. The Garman-
Klass volatility estimator is the best volatility estimator based on daily (open, high, low and
close) data.
financial market quality and stability. Recently, these efforts have been very prominent, with the
Sarbanes–Oxley Act of 2002 and the Dodd–Frank Act of 2010 emphasizing various aspects of
improved disclosure. For example, the Sarbanes–Oxley Act was passed “to protect investors by
improving the accuracy and reliability of corporate disclosures made pursuant to the securities
Disclosure regulation comes in different forms and affects different activities. Over time, firms
have increasingly been required to disclose information about their operations and financial
activities in financial reports to their investors. Similarly, investors are required to disclose
information about their holdings in firms that might pertain to activism, intentions of activism, or
Moreover, improved quality of public information is also achieved by increasing the reliability of
Recently, following the financial crisis of 2008, governments increased the amount of disclosure
available about banks by conducting annual stress tests and making their results publicly
available.
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Disclosure can potentially promote some important goals: By leveling the playing field in
financial markets, it can increase market liquidity and market efficiency and can decrease the
cost of capital for firms. There are potential unintended consequences of disclosure, which occur
because of the crowding out of private information production, the destruction of risk-sharing
opportunities, and the promotion of destabilizing beauty-contest incentives. Given the flow of
new regulations related to disclosure in recent years, researchers have been delving more and
more into the topic, trying to understand the pros and cons and answering key questions, such as:
What is the optimal level of disclosure in terms of promoting market quality and social welfare?
What types of disclosure are most beneficial? In what circumstances is disclosure desirable?
The effect of disclosure is often understood by examining different measures of market quality’
6.1.1 Market liquidity. Market liquidity refers to a market’s ability to facilitate the purchase or
sale of an asset without drastically affecting the asset’s price. Disclosure improves market
liquidity; that is, Intuitively, more precise public information implies that there is less uncertainty
about the asset value, so rational traders trade more aggressively against liquidity traders. As a
result, changes in liquidity trading are absorbed with a smaller price change.
6.1.2 Market efficiency. Market efficiency, also called price efficiency or informational
efficiency, concerns how informative the prevailing market prices are about the future values of
the traded assets. An underlying reason for promoting market efficiency is that it is believed to
be a good proxy for real efficiency, by which more information in prices about underlying values
improves real investment decisions. Disclosure improves market efficiency, that is, Intuitively,
more public information before the price is formed directly injects more fundamental
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information into the price through updating traders’ forecasts about the asset payoff. This implies
6.1.3 Cost of capital. The expected return is often interpreted as the cost of capital on the risky
asset. A lower cost of capital benefits the issuer of the security, as it enables the issuer to sell the
security at a higher price. The cost of capital is positively affected by risk aversion and asset
supply in the numerator. This is because traders are willing to pay a lower price when they are
more risk averse and have to hold more of the asset on average, so the risk they have to bear is
higher. The expression in the denominator is inversely related to the average risk perceived by
traders per unit of the security. When the perceived risk goes up, the cost of capital also
increases. Disclosure affects the cost of capital only through affecting the perceived risk: A
higher level of disclosure lowers the cost of capital by lowering traders’ average risk.
6.1.4 Return volatility. Return volatility is another measure that attracts attention from
academics and regulators. Disclosure lowers return volatility. This is because more public
information improves market efficiency, which thus brings the asset price closer to the
fundamental value.
Starting from low disclosure, all traders choose to become informed, and an increase in
disclosure reduces the precision of their information. Then, at some point, the fraction of
informed traders starts decreasing as disclosure continues to improve, eventually drying up all
the information produced privately in the market. Hence, public disclosure clearly crowds out
private information.
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Another important issue that has to be considered in evaluating the effects of disclosure is the
The well-known Hirshleifer (1971) effect is a powerful argument against public disclosure of
information. The idea is that when traders face idiosyncratic risks arising from, say,
heterogeneous endowment shocks, public disclosure decreases welfare by reducing the risk-
6.5 Conclusion
The analysis provided in this article demonstrates key insights from the literature on how
information disclosure in financial markets affects market quality, information production, real
efficiency, and traders’ welfare. As the analysis shows, there are many aspects to consider when
evaluating the effects of disclosure and the optimal regulation of the level and form of disclosure.
We have showed here how many of these effects can be manifested in a cohesive analytical
framework that has proven useful in understanding trading and information in financial markets.
As disclosure is being used more and more as a tool by regulators to increase market quality, it is
important to consider its different implications. We hope that our review will be useful for
researchers interested in advancing the theoretical and empirical work in the area and for policy
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