CEE 588

GEOTECHNICAL EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING

& GROUND DYNAMICS

Date: 13.09.2022
Prepared by: Ola Bou Ghannam
Title: Reading Summary #5

Summary of Chapter 4 (Kramer 1996), (Bommer 2002), (Krinitzsky-1995), (Idriss 1985)

1. The deterministic seismic hazard analysis (DSHA) calculates ground motion at the site based
on a controlling, most unfavorable event. The objective is to design against any reasonable
eventuality regardless of time as there is no way to know whether an earthquake, whose
recurrence is in any number of years may not happen during the design lifetime. The DSHA
is applicable to critical structures for which failures could have been catastrophic.

2. The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis alternatively provides a framework in which

uncertainties of seismic events can be identified, quantified, and rationally combined. All
possible earthquakes that could affect the site, including all feasible combinations of
magnitude and distance, are identified and incorporated. Therefore, the PSHA incorporates
the element of time in the assessment.

3. Although there is a prominent dichotomy between the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis
(PSHA) and the Deterministic Seismic Hazard Analysis (DSHA), both approaches share
common grounds in [Bommer 2002]:

a. Identifying potential sources of earthquakes, through collecting data from geological

evidences from paleoecology, tectonic evidences as well historical and instrumental
seismicity records
b. Modelling of the ground motion through the use of attenuation relationships -ground-
motion prediction equations

4. PSHA includes four main steps:

• Step 1: Identifying and characterizing the Earthquake sources according to a uniform
distribution of probability of rupture for each source (distance and orientation).
• Step 2: Characterizing the seismicity/ temporal distribution of EQ using recurrence
relationship, average rate which an EQ of certain size will be exceeded
• Step 3: Determining the ground motion parameter The ground motion produced at
the site by earthquakes of any possible size occurring at any possible point in each
source using predictive relations
• Step 4: Obtain probability that ground motion parameter will be exceeded during a
particular time period.

5. The Gutenberg-Richter Recurrence Law is utilized in step 2 of the analysis, defines a mean
annual rate of exceedance of an earthquake of magnitude m. The recurrence law results in a
linear relationship between the magnitude and the return period, that was later bounded by
minimum and maximum magnitudes. A more recent interpretation of fault activity has
produced the characteristic earthquake recurrence law.

CEE-588-Reading Assignment # 5 Page | 1

 CEE 588
GEOTECHNICAL EARTHQUAKE ENGINEERING
& GROUND DYNAMICS

6. The probabilities of earthquakes of various sizes occurring in finite periods of time are
computed assuming that earthquakes occur as Poisson processes.

7. De-aggregation is the process where the contribution of a particular earthquake magnitude

or source-site distance is estimated.

8. Logic tree methods allows that uncertainty in selection of models for attenuation, magnitude
distribution and maximum magnitude to be considered. A seismic hazard analysis is carried
out for the combination of models and or parameters associated with each terminal branch.
The result of each analysis is weighted by the relative likelihood of its combination of
branches. with the final result taken as the sum of the weighted individual results.

9. PSHA currently enjoys almost total domination in seismic hazard mapping, particularly for
seismic design codes. However, it is believed that the Gutenberg-Richtere relations
employed in PSHA can be applied on larger regions but cannot be adopted in small specific
areas such as our project. This is due to flaws attributed to circular reasoning, on which
earthquakes with unknown recurrence rates are projected over the b-line which could be
highly unrealistic and costly as well as the uncertainty through averaging non-combinable
multiple expert opinions.

10. The deterministic estimates are typically considered as an upper bond, and therefore the
DSHA can be used to cap the results of PSHA by not allowing motions higher than those
corresponding to a deterministic scenario.

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