Can Climate change be a catalyst for social reform?

Do you know that several catastrophic events occurred in the year 2020 and resulted in
becoming the third-warmest year on record. The emerging of Severe acute respiratory
syndrome (SARS-CoV-2) at the same time took a backseat to face the health-crisis which
resulted in the continuation leading to the contribution in weather events that remains to be
volatile in nature.
The wildfires on the U.S west coast have set the records in which the 10 largest wildfires
happened in the year 2020. According to the California Department of Forestry and Fire
Protection, nearly 4.2 million acres were burned by the estimation of nearly more than 9,600
wildfires through mid-December. The primary factors behind the wildfires are the Greater
availability of fuel, the expansion of urban areas, and a changing climate.

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Observed Data and Forecasting
Due to the warming of the climate, both air and vegetation are drying and warming. The
severity and frequency of droughts and heatwaves have increased in the past few decades in
the west of the U.S which has led to the warmed climate. According to the National Oceanic
and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), since the beginning of the 20th century, the
temperatures in California have increased by approximately 1.1 degrees Celsius which has led
to the dried air, shrinking of snowpacks, earlier and longer snowmelt and more intense dry
seasons.

(i) The above observed data are for the years 1900 to 2014 for the temperature changes
in California and the forecasted data are from 2006 to 2100, which has been
assumed by global climate models for two possible futures: 1st one is continued
increase in emission of Greenhouse gas (higher emission) and 2nd one is emission
of Greenhouse gas at a slower rate (lower emission).
(ii) The orange line in the graph shows that from the year 1900 – 2014, from the global
climate change models, the temperatures in California have been on rinse for about
2 degrees Fahrenheit from the beginning of the 20th century.
(iii) The shades in the graph indicates the range of annual temperatures from the set of
models.
(iv) The grey shading illustrates that the observed temperatures are within th envelope
of model simulations of the historical period. It is confirmed truth that historically
unprecedented warming in our globe is projected during the 21st century.
(v) The green shading indicates that the warming is expected to be less under the lower
emission in future, where the coldest years will be about 2 degrees Fahrenheit
warmer than the historical average.
(vi) The red shading delineates more warming under higher emission in future, where
the hottest years being 9 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than the hottest year in the
historical records. [according to CISC-NC and NOAA NCEI]

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Background and Predictions
Since 1984 on average 4 per cent of the land in California has been burned. In the year 2003,
800 homes were destroyed in California by the Grand Prix, the old and Padua wildfires which
forced 100,000 residents to evacuate that has cost nearly a loss of $1.3 billion. The smoke of
wildfire reduces the quality of air and affects human health. Also, the landscape of California
has changed due to the increase in the combination of more fires and drier conditions that have
led to the expansion in deserts and other areas under effect. Natural hazards such as droughts
are a purely defined catalyst for climate change. The persistence and frequency of droughts in
the regions of California have triggered changes in their water laws and the behaviour of water
users.
Apart from modelled historical data, the graph predicts the projected changes in the future from
global climate models, which leads to a fight to overcome global climate change in the future.

Why we chose this particular visualization?

It is important to make people aware of climate change. There are many reasons to opt for this
visualization, such as:
(i) Tufte Rules of Visualization: The visualization is based on points, lines, number,
words, shading and colours, which makes it apt to follow the principle of the
American statistician Edward Rolf Tufte.
(ii) Data Integrity: The source of the above graph is NASA’s Global Climate Change
blog, which was published on 22nd February, 2021.
(iii) Significance of Data Points: X – axis and Y – axis indicate years and temperature
change per year respectively. So the data points of the graph are significantly
considered as this is vital for prediction of climate condition in upcoming years.
(iv) Utilization of Range: The graph on temperature change is starting from the year
1900 and it contains the probable data of upcoming years upto the year 2100, which
makes this graph worthy on range utilization.
(v) Choice of Graph: Line graph is well suited for the huge data starting from the years
1900 to 2100. The graph is conveying the predictions successfully. Its focus is on
chages in temperature over time without any distraction.
(vi) Simplicity and Effectiveness: The graph is simply conveying the data and clearly
showing data of each year. Line graph is one of the most efficient types to represent
data for multiple sources and it skillfully demonstrates the required data.
(vii) Visual Representation and Updates: The line graph is having most recent updates
with past data and future predictions. So it is very useful for detailed visualization.
Moreover, we have the freedom of viewing past, present and future data from the
graph.
(viii) Pattern of Graph: The graph depicts a particular pattern with some exponential
increment and decrement both.

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Conclusions
The concern related to the climatic changes eventually leads to the broad uncertainties around
outcomes of the climate change in combination with the uncertainties about the trends of the
urban socio-economic which emphasizes the requirement of prudent management of risk
strategies to be integrated into the present decision making. Hence the climate change leads to
the destruction of habitat and loss of ecosystem by adversely affecting the wildlife habitats,
plants and the ecosystem.
The visualization conveys very clearly how we can improve our activities and at what rate we
need to control greenhouse gas emission. Lower emission may lead us to a controllable level,
whereas the higher emission of greenhouse gas can become the reason for any disastrous
misfortune.

Feedback and Improvement Suggestions For The Blog

The blog and the visual representation is perfect as we went through the historical background
and forecasting of climate change and came to a conclusion how this can be an influential
catalyzer for our society. But the chart provided can be reformed by making it more attractive.
(i) Using Tableau, we can merge various charts, graphs and images in one page. One
example video is attached below for reference.

(ii) The graph could have been a bar graph with every year’s average temperature
clearly mentioned. An example bar graph of Carbon emissions per year is provided
below:

(iii) Line graph is containing temperature change per year, but the temperature usually
varies depending upon the seasons and various climate conditions.

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