TOMA DE DECISIONES

Tema: Análisis de Decisiones

Actividad 1
Actividad socialmente responsable
Ing. Alicia Díaz Hurtado
Emiliano Lopez Benavides
CASE: Gypsy Moth in Oregon.
Gypsy Moth (GM) caterpillars are one of the most destructive tree defoliators in the US.
They prefer oak but will eat hundreds of species of trees and shrubs. The caterpillars have
defoliated millions of acres of trees and shrubs in the northeastern United States. When
the caterpillars eat the leaves of broad-leaved trees year after year the trees become
weak. These trees become susceptible to disease and fire, and may provide poor habitat
for other forms of animal and plant life. Fir trees can die after just one year if the
caterpillars strip all of the needles. Not only do caterpillars strip trees and shrubs of
foliage, they can become a nuisance when crawling on sidewalks, patios, houses, and
other structures. They also create a continuous and audible rain of messy droppings under
infested trees. In some cases, people develop an allergy to the hairs of the gypsy moth
larvae.
In the winter of 1985, the Oregon Department of Agriculture (ODA) grappled with the
problem of gypsy moth infestation in Lane County in Western Oregon. Forest Industry
representatives argued strongly for an aggressive eradication campaign using potent
chemical insecticides. The ODA instead proposed a plan that involved spraying most of the
affected area with BTK (Bacillus thuringiensis var. kurstaki), a bacterial insecticide known
to be:
(1) target-specific (that is, it does little damage to organisms other than moths),
(2) is safest for people, environment and other organisms and
(3) reasonable effective.

The next table shows some characteristics of BTK.

As well as using BTK, the ODA proposed spraying three smaller areas near the city of Lane
with the Chemical Spray Orthene (CSO). Although Orthene was registered as an
acceptable insecticide for garden use, there was some doubt as to its ultimate ecological
effects as well as its dangers to humans.
Other methods to eradicate gypsy moths were not chosen either because they are not
effective or as safe:
Forestry officials argued that the chemical insecticide (Orthene) was more potent than BT
and was necessary to ensure eradication in the most heavily affected areas.
Environmentalists argued that the potential danger from the chemical spray was too great
to warrant its use. Some individuals argued that spraying would not help because the
infestation already was so advanced that no program would be successful. Others argued
that an aggressive spray program could solve the problem once and for all, but only if
done immediately. Clearly in making its final Decision the ODA would have to deal with
many issues.
References:
http://www.oregon.gov/ODA/shared/Documents/Publications/PesticidesPARC/PesticideBulletinFall.pdf
https://digital.osl.state.or.us/islandora/object/osl%3A1020/datastream/OBJ/view

En base a la lectura anterior, discutamos sobre:

¿Porqué las Decisiones son Difíciles?
Para ello identifique los elementos de las preguntas: <20 puntos por pregunta>
1.- ¿Cuáles son los elementos de complejidad en el caso?
La infestación que hay en algunas partes de estados unidos haciendo que las
polillas y las orugas afecten diferentes hábitats, seres vivos o molestando a seres
humanos con alergias y deshechos infestados en patios, calles o casas.

2.- ¿Cuáles son las fuentes clave de incertidumbre?

Como afectan las orugas en los arboles generando fuego tras pasar el tiempo o que
estos mismos se debiliten haciendo que no sea un hábitat para diferentes seres
vivos

3.- En este caso hay varios objetivos, ¿cuáles son?

Poder reducir la infestación de orugas en las partes de estados unidos

4.- ¿En este caso hay diferentes perspectivas para la solución, cuáles son?
Rociar con químicos las áreas afectadas
Crear una bacteria especifica para las orugas

5.- Escribe una breve reflexión de la lectura

Podemos ver como una infestación de orugas afectan en muchas y diferentes cosas
que no teníamos en cuenta.
Y también vemos como diferentes asociaciones están tomando cartas en el asunto
con diferentes propuestas pero con un mismo objetivo, reducir las orugas en las
áreas afectadas