Multifactor Ageing Models - Origin and Similarities

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d-qp F E A T U R E A R T I C L E

Key Words: Electrical insulation, electrical and thermal stress, synergy, interaction

by The type of deterioration of the insulation will depend on


GJERDE
ANNECATHRINE the chemistry of the particular case. Electrical ageing in
dielectrics may also be due to space charges [SI.The exist-
Norwegian Electric Power Research Institute (EFI) ence of field-enhancing defects in polymer insulation is a
necessary condition for dielectric ageing when no gaseous
cavities are present. Above a critical voltage charge, injection
T h e m a i n models for combined by such defects becomes an appreciable effect [6].
t h er ma 1-e 1e c t rica 1 age ing ha ue a Thermal stress is another important stress factor. Normal
load current in cables and transformers causes ohmic losses
c o m m o n origin in thermodynamics, in conductors. The heat generated must dissipate through
and several of t h e m o d e l s a y e the surrounding insulation. Dielectrics are poor heat conduc-
tors, and temperature gradients may build up in the insula-
essentially t h e same. tion. Dielectric losses may also contribute to thermal
stressing of the insulation. As a result of thermal stress the
insulation material degrades [7]. The specific form of degra-
dation depends on the material. Important chemical degra-
INTRODUCTION dation reactions are oxidation and hydrolysis. Transient or
lectrical insulation may be subjected to several types of

E stress in practical applications [ 1,2]. Obviously, electrz-


cal stress comes into consideration. Cavities occurring
in bulk material or at electrode interfaces are one of the main
periodic temperature gradients may also induce mechanical
stresses.
Environmental stress may also be of importance [8].
Examples of environmental stress are radiation from the sun,
sources of problems for solid electrical insulation. Due to the
radiation in nuclear power plants, humidity, and the type and
voltage of the system, the cavities will experience an electri-
pressure of the surrounding gas.
cal field. If the electrical field inside any cavity exceeds a
critical field determined by the criteria for gaseous break- Mechanical stress must also be considered. The result of
down, partial discharges (PD) will be ignited. The discharges different mechanical stresses, e.g., the bending of cables, the
cause material degradation and may eventually lead to the vibration of machine insulation, or different thermal expan-
complete breakdown of the insulation [3].Partial discharges sion in heterogeneous systems, may be fissures in the bulk of
are not only a bulk phenomenon; they can also appear across the insulation material or at interfaces between materials of
insulation surfaces [4]. Typically, interfaces between solid the insulation system [9].Consequently, partial discharges
insulation and surrounding gadatmosphere may give rise to may arise.
surface discharge activity. The difference in permittivity The action of the above-mentioned stress factors cause
causes field enhancement in the gas, and as explained for PD ageing of insulation systems. Insulation systems that are
in bulk material, this may lead to partial gaseous breakdown. exposed to several stress factors may in addition to the ageing
The result may be erosion, in addition to the creation of produced by each factor experience ageing due to synergy
conductive paths along the surface of the insulation. The effects. Ageing h i t s the time-to-failure of the insulation
latter phenomenon is known as “tracking.” Another electri- system. It is, therefore, essential to obtain models that can
cal ageing mechanism is electrolysis [2]. Mobile ions stem- describe the ageing process at different ageing conditions
ming either from moisture or from impurities must be [lo-131. The rate of ageing depends on the specific type or
present in considerable number to achieve such an effect. combination of ageing factors. In this paper, the focus will

6 0883-7554l97/$10.000 1997 IEEE Electrical Insulation Magazine


be on ageing caused by elevated temperature and electrical
Thermal Electrical
stress. The main models describing combined thermal-elec- 0 Oxidation 0 Partial Discharges
trical ageing will be reviewed. The models are compared to 0 Hydrolysis 0 Overvoltage
0 Tracking
emphasize differences and common features.

WHATIS AGEING?
Ageing is an irreversible deleterious change to the service-
ability of an insulation system [ 141. The nature of this change
may vary. The properties of an insulation system that are Mechanical Environmental
0 Cracking 0 Gas, Acids
influenced by ageing depend on the type of applied stress
0 Tension 0 Pressure
and the kind of insulation material that is used. Stresses that 0 Vibrations 0 Radiation
produce ageing are called ageing factors. The ageing factors I
can be divided into four types: Electrical, thermal, mechani- Fig. 1 Ageing factors
cal, and environmental (see Fig. 1).
Ageing caused by only one ageing factor is denoted single
factor ageing. Ageing resulting from several ageing factors, process. Time to breakdown L for an insulation system aged
either simultaneously or sequentially applied, is called mul- at an absolute temperature T can then be obtained from the
tifactor ageing. In the lapse of time, ageing escalates so that inverse ageing rate:
eventually the serviceability becomes so poor that failure
occurs. Most commonly, failure means breakdown of the L = Aeq( );
insulation. In this case, insulation life is determined by
measuring the time to breakdown. Doing this in “real-time” where A and B are constants to be determined experimentally
would have been rather exhausting, given that most insula-
tion systems are expected to endure ageing for several dec- ELECTRICAL
AGEINGMODELS
ades before failure occurs. Instead, the ageing process is Little is known about the nature of electrical ageing. Most
accelerated in laboratory tests so that insulation life is se- commonly the following ageing models are used for single
verely reduced. This is done usually by increasing the in- electrical ageing:
tended design stress. When sufficient ageing data are
L = kE-” (2)
available, statistical aspects must be considered [15, 161.
From the results of accelerated ageing tests, insulation life at whch is the inverse power model, and
service conditions can be estimated from appropriate ageing
L = a exp(-bE) (3)
models [17-211. Any extrapolation must, however, be per-
formed with prudence. Acceleration of the ageing process which is the exponential model. E is the electrical field strength, k,
may not be the only effect of increasing the stress level. It is n, a, and b are constants to be determined experimentally The
possible that other ageing processes become dominant at the electrical ageing models describe ageing in any insulation system
accelerated stress level or that the ageing process changes that experiences an electrical field. It is not necessary to know the
non-linearly with increasing stress. Furthermore, it is not exact type of ageing process that takes place, e.g., whether partial
likely that the ageing rate remains constant during the life of discharges are present or not. The models do not depend on the
a practical insulation system. The dominant ageing process system structure, like the particular electrode configuration. Equa-
in the beginning of ageing may not be the same throughout tions (2)and (3)are solely empirically deduced models. However,
the insulation life. From this it may be reasoned that extrapo- the models have proved to fit reasonably well with experimental
lation from accelerated stress levels to service stress is rather data. At low stress values the linear shape of the inverse power
hazardous. The best way to increase the reliability of time- model (log-logplot) and the exponentd model (semi-logplot) may
to-breakdown estimations is better knowledge of the chem- no longer be valid [24]. Below a certain electrical field stress, ageing
istry and physics of fundamental ageing processes [22]. may no longer take place. The existence of a lower threshold field
can be accounted for by dividingEquations (2)and (3)byE - Ethhu.
SINGLEFACTOR
AGEINGMODELS
The Concepts of Synergy
ThermalAgeing Model If an insulation material is subjected to both elevated
The rating of most electrical equipment depends upon the temperature and an electrical field, then the result may be
thermal capability of its electrical insulation [23].This infor- that failure occurs much sooner than if the two stresses were
mation can only be supplied by ageing tests. The rate at which applied separately. The resulting ageing is not necessarily the
chemical reactions proceed is given by the well-known Ar- algebraic sum of the thermal ageing and the electrical ageing.
rhenius equation. Dakin adopted this relationship to describe In most cases new failure mechanisms may be created when
the thermal ageing of materials. According to Dakin, the several stresses are present. The synergy effects are due to
ageing rate is equal to the rate of the dominating ageing interactions between different ageing factors. There are two

January/February 1997 - Vol. 13, No. 1 7


Indirect Interaction
I Direct Interaction I
Fa r2

Factor 1 Factor 2
Succeeded
Fact BY tor 2
Fig. 2 The simultaneous presence of factor 1 and factor 2 gives rise to direct interaction I I
Fig. 3 Indirect interaction: Ageing produced by factor 1 influences the ageing caused by
factor 2

main types of interaction [25]:direct interaction and indirect


interaction. ULTIFACTOR AGEINGMODELS
Direct interaction is “interaction between simultaneous
applied factors of influence, which differs from that occur- Simoni’s Model
ring with sequentially applied factors of influence.” Generally, ageing depends on a property p selected to
Fig. 2 shows direct interaction schematically in case of an evaluate the ageing. Simoni denotes this dependency as the
insulation system exposed to two stress factors. Stress factors ageing function F , see Equation (4).
that produce direct interaction are not necessarily ageing Ageing = F ( p ) (4)
factors. An example of direct interaction is oxidation. Both
oxygen and elevated temperature are needed at the same Ageing is a dimensionless quantity. The property p must
time to give synergy effect. in some way be related to failure. That means that failure
occurs when p reaches a limiting value. The rate at which
Indirect interaction is “interaction between simultaneous
the ageing function changes is the ageing rate R. Then the
applied factors of influence, which remains essentially un-
ageing function, that is, the amount of ageing, can be derived
changed when the factors are applied sequentially.” from the product of ageing rate and time:
Indirect interaction can only be brought about by ageing
factors. Fig. 3 gives a schematic view of indirect interaction.
Although the simultaneous action of ageing factors is not
prerequisite, the order of succeeding ageing factors is, of If the ageing rate is constant in the stress range of interest,
course, decisive. Mechanical and electrical stress may cause then F ( p ) = Rt. The expression for R depends on the type of
interaction. Voids created by the mechanical stress may give ageing factors. When interactions are present the ageing rate
rise to partial discharges. If the voids are formed only when becomes complex.
mechanical stress is present, the ageing would be caused by As ageing proceeds the property p decays. Eventually the
direct interaction between mechanical and electrical stress. value of p becomes so low that the insulation system is unable
Indirect interaction, however, occurs if the voids formed due to maintain its serviceability. At this point p has reached the
to the mechanical stress are permanent. The insulation sys- limiting value p L and failure occurs. At that moment, the
tem may first be exposed to the void producing mechanical ageing time becomes the lifetime:
stress, and subsequently to an electrical stress, or the two
ageing factors can be applied simultaneously. In both cases
the result will be additional ageing due to synergy effects,
Simoni assumes that the amount of ageing at failure F ( ~ L )
namely, partial discharges. is a characteristic parameter for an insulation system. In this
The fact that stress factors may interact must be taken into way insulation life and ageing rate become inversely propor-
accouiit in the life models. There are several models to chose tional quantities.
from in order to describe combined thermal-electrical age- The ageing rate R must describe the thermal-electrical
ing. Most frequently the following models are referred to in ageng process. Simoni’s expression for the combined ageing
literature: Simoni’s models [28], Ramu’s model [27],Fallou’s rate originates from thermodynamics [301:
model [28], and Crine’s model [29]. It is interesting to
examine the approach of these models. How do they de- R = A esp(
((xe-): a +$)[(E))
scribe the interaction between an electrical field and elevated (7)
temperature? The models given by Ramu, Fallou, and Simoni where f(E)is an unspecified function of the electrical field. Simoni’s
are more or less empirical, while Crine’s model is intended model is fashoned after this rate equation. The rate equation
to be a physical model. expressesthe influence of an electrical field on a thermally activated

8 IEEE Electrical Insulation Magazine


h
I

106

I DT

Fig. 4 Simoni’s model: life surface for combinedthermal electrical ageing


1o3

process (thermal ageing). The exact form of this influence is,


however, not described. Simoni suggests that f ( E )= In

being a reference gradent below which no electrical ageing takes


I:[ - , Eo

place. Based on h s choice of f(E)Simoni has deduced a life model


for thermal-electrical ageing, here called Model 1,which is com-
patible with the inverse power model for electrical ageing, see 1
Equation (2). 18 50 100 200 500 “C
Model 1
Fig. 5 Simoni’s model: life lines at constant electrical stress

where LOis time-to-breakdown at room temperature and E = EO,


N = n - bA(l/T), n is a constant, and A ( l m = 1/T- TO. As an
alternative,Simoni has proposed that f(E) = E -EO. The life model
based on h s alternative,here denoted Model 2, is compatible with
the exponential model for electrical ageing, see Equation (3).
Simoni’s models are only valid for stress ranges where insulation
life can be described by linear relationships.
Model 2

(9) 1 103 lo6 h

Simoni’s Model 1 resembles a pure multiplication of the Fig. 6 Simoni’s model: life lines at constant temperature
expressions for single electrical and single thermal ageing,
Except for the expression for electrical ageing, the inverse
power model entering the life model has been modified. A The intersections with the planes of constant temperature
new term has been introduced in the exponent of the elec- are straight lines (see Fig. 6). The line at room temperature
trical field. Synergy is expressed by the multiplication of the is the electrical life line, equal to the inverse power model.
single factor models and the “correction” term (E/E$A(l’q. Simoni’s model as described above is a linear model.
Equation (9) represents a surface in a three-dimensional Experimental results, however, do sometimes disagree with
space with temperature, electrical field strength, and life as linear models in the low-stress range. If the life line of an
coordinate axes (see Fig. 4). insulation system tends to become horizontal at test stresses
The intersections with the planes of constant electrical close to service conditions, then the ageing of this particular
stress are straight lines (see Fig. 5 ) . An important feature of
system is better described by the threshold model proposed
Simoni’s model is its compatibility with the single factor
by Simoni and Montanari [21].
ageing models. When E equals the threshold field Eo the life
model becomes identical with the model for thermal ageing.
Hence, the straight line at Eo is denoted the thermal life line. Ramu’s Model
For electrical field strengths below the threshold field only Ramu’s model is obtained from a multiplication of classi-
thermal ageing prevails. cal single stress rates. The model accounts for synergy effects

January/February 1997 -Vol. 13, No. 1 9


by treating the constants of the inverse power law as tem-
perature dependent. Ramu’s model is given by Equation (10)
10000
r
0
I
c
.-
a,
L
_I

1000
same as that defined for Simoni‘s

models. Ramu’s model can be simplified:


200 -

100
-, 2 5 10
Electric Stress kV/pm 1000
where c and E are constants. In this case, only four constants have T k-’
to be evaluated. On logarithc form, Ramu’s model reads Fig. 7 Ramu’s model: data far epoxy-bonded mica tape [24]
InL(E,T)= c, -EA(l/T)-(q -n,A(l/T))lnE. Then, experi-
mentsperformed at constant temperatureshould yield straight lines
for time to breakdown versus electricalstress plotted on bi-logpaper
(see Fig. 7).The slope of the life lines is I nl - n A ( l / T )I decreasing
as temperature increases, while the intersection with the time-to-
breakdown axis is (c, - gd(l/T ) ) . 20
Similarly, with constant electrical stress, straight lines for
time to breakdown versus temperature should be obtained
(see Fig. 7). The lines have slope IB - n2 1nE I and intersect
the time-to-breakdown axis at (c1 - nl I&). 10
If a reference stress Eo is included in Equation (lo), and
the constant c is eliminated by putting L = LOfor E = Eo and
h

T = To, then Ramu’s model becomes identical with Simoni’s c


Y

5
Model 1. -J

Fallou’s Model
Fallou has proposed a semi-empirical ageing model based
on the exponential model for electrical ageing:
2
L = exp/A(E) + $1,
I )
Ez0
(12)
+
where A(E)= AI + A$, andB(E) = BI B2E must be determined
experimentally from time-to-breakdown curves at constant tem- 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6
peratures. The model does not take into account the existence of 1000/T(K-’)
a threshold field for electrical ageing. After substitution of the
Fig. 8 Fallou’s model. Variations of characteristic time to breakdown with temperature
constants, Fallou’s model can be written
at different electrical stress for polypropylene-oil system [25]

with physical significance. Crine suggests that the ageing


where = exp A,.Plotting InL versus 1/T straight lines should process can be characterized by an energy barrier (see Fig.
appear for each value of the applied electrical field (see Fig. 8). 9). The energy barrier separates the initial “good” insulation
Fallou’s model can be compared to Simoni’s Model 2, from the final breakdown or failure state.
Equation (9). Fallou’s model is basically equal to Simoni’s To surpass the energy barrier the system needs sufficient
Model 2. energy. The probability of achieving enough energy is given
by Boltzman statistics. An external electrical field facilitates
Crine’s Model the surpassing of the energy barrier. The electrical field
The models so far discussed have mainly been of empirical deforms the energy barrier, as depicted in Fig. 9. The barrier
nature. Crine’s model, on the other hand, aspires to be a height is reduced at one side of the barrier and increased by
thermodynamic model, thus featuring model parameters the same amount on the other side.

10 IEEE Electrical Insulation Magazine


A
P
C
w

,\ With Field

I ,
10-2 100 102 1o4
-
Time (Hours)
Distance
Fig. 10 Crine’s model: life curve of XLPE cable [29]
Fig. 9 Crine’s thermodynamic model

Crine proposes that the time to cross the energy barrier


I Thermodvnamics

is the lifetime of the insulation. It is at this point that Crine’s


approach becomes questionable. Crine says that the time for
a single passage of the energy barrier is equal to the mean
time of passage that can be described by thermodynamic

c
relations [3 11:

(14)
h being the Planck constant, KB the Boltzmann constant, AG is the
free energy of activation, h is the distance between A and B, and e
is the charge of the particle talung part in the ageing process. It Fallou Ramu
should be noted that if the electrical field is zero, Crine’s model is
Fig. 11 Comparison of the multifactor ageing models
not defined. Crine’s model is not compatible with single thermal
ageing as was the case for Simoni’s model. The parameters AG and
h are functions of temperature and remain unspecified by Crine. models described in literature appreciably resemble each
On this background it can be said that Crine’s model has yet to be other (see Fig. 11).
developed in order to become a proper multifactor ageing model. Ramu’s model and Fallou’s model can be represented by
There are also other aspects of Crine’s approach that add to the Simoni’s model as already shown. Simoni’s model is distinct
reluctance to use it [lI]. from the other two in the way that Simoni gives a thorough
At high fields ehE > > ksT, and Crine’s model becomes description of how the model has been established. In addi-
tion, Simoni exploits the life equation to give a graphical
L = - exp
(4,hT) (AGi;”) (15)
portrayal that provides visual insight into the model.
Both Simoni’s model and Crine’s model are based on
It can be seen from Equation (15) how synergy effects are relationships collected from thermodynamics [111.Thermo-
included in Crine’s model. The presence of an electrical field dynamics describe how a thermally activated process is
lowers the energy barrier AG and thereby reduces the value influenced by an external electrical field. The thermally
of L. The time-to-breakdown curve according to Equation activated process may be a chemical reaction or it can be the
(15) should exhibit an exponential regime in the high field transport of an electrical charged particle. Neither Simoni
region and a “tail” at low fields. In a semilog presentation nor Crine has described what kind of process they believe
there will be a linear relation between time-to-breakdown dominates the ageing process. Crine, however, moves one
and E at high stresses. Fig. 10 shows the time-to-breakdown step further than Simoni by assuming that it is a particle with
curve of a XLPE cable [29]. negative charge that takes part in the ageing process.
A major difference between Crine’s model and Simoni’s
COMPARISON
OF THE AGEING
MODELS model is how they relate life to the ageing rate. In Simoni’s
A great deal has been written about multifactor ageing model life is inversely proportional to the ageing rate. Crine,
models. It is however important to note that several of the on the other hand, suggests that life is equal to the reciprocal

JanuaryIFebruary 1997 -Vol. 13, No. 1 11


ageing rate. Generally, thermodynamics is based on prob- In Simoni’s model, insulation life is inverselypropomonal to
ability considerations. The reaction rates give the mean the ageing rate, whle Crine’s model states that life is equal
frequency of an event. Crine’s application of thermodynam- to the reciprocal ageing rate. If one were to follow the
ics to describe a single event (one passage of the energy fundamentals of thermodynamictheory, it is more reasonable
barrier) must therefore be considered quite unconventional. that insulation life is reached after the energy barrier hasbeen
Although thermodynamics is a common basis for both crossed a critical number of times and not only once. The
Simoni’s model and Crine’s model, when it comes to inter- critical number of passages should be related to the sewice-
preting combined thermal-electrical ageing, the empirical ability of the insulating system.
adjustments performed by Simoni lead him to a different 0 Thermodynamics gives a general description of how an
conclusion than Crine. In Crine’s model synergy is expressed electrical field affects a thermally activated process. Crine
by the deformation of the energy barrier, which accelerates applies the same concept in his model.
the thermally activated process. Simoni describes the influ- 0 Simoni’s model is obtained by multiplication of the life
ence of an electrical field in a similar manner. Still, Simoni models for singlethermal andsingleelectricalageingtogether
also includes another effect, namely, electrical ageing as with a correction term. The origin of &s expression can,
described by the single factor ageing models. Hence, while however, be traced back to thermodynamics.
Crine views thermal-electrical ageing as an acceleration of a
thermally activated process, Simoni describes it as accelera- ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
tion and electrical ageing taking place at the same time. The author thanks Professor Jarle Sletbak from the Nor-
The selection of ageing models has been reduced by letting wegian University of Science and Technology for helpful
Simoni’s model represent both Fallou’s model and Ramu’s advice during the preparation of this paper.
model. It is hoped this will facilitate choosing the proper
ageing model for different types of insulation systems. To ANNE CATHRINE
GJERDE
received her M.Sc. (phys-
assess the validity of any model, its ability to fit experimental ics) and Ph.D. (hgh voltage engineering) degrees
data is essential. Comparison of ageing models by applying from the Norwegian University of Science and
them to experimental data can be found in the literature [11, Technology (“NU) in 1987 and 1994, respec-
17, 211. As an example, the models by Simoni, Fallou, and tively She has since 1987 been with the Norwe-
Crine have been applied to experimental data for polyethyle- gian Electric Power Research Institute (EFI),
neterephtalate (PET)-films. It was shown that the best ap- Department of Materials Technology During ths
proximation of the experimental data was provided by period she has been working with the diagnosis
Simoni’s model [17] (see Fig. 12). and ageing of different insulation systems. Dr. Gjzrde may be
reached at EFI, 7034 Trondheim, Norway Telephone: 73 59 72
C ONc LUSI o NS 00; E-mad: Anne. Gjerde@efi.sintef.no
0 Ramu’s model can be represented by Sirnoni’s Model 1,
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Erratum
The following corrects errors that appeared in Table I11 of “Research and Devel-
opment of Electrical Insulation of Superconducting Cables by Extruded Polymers” by
M. Kosaki in the SeptembedOctober 1996 issue of Electrical Insulation Magazine (p.
23, Vol. 12, No. 5).

I Table 111: AC Tree-Starting Voltage of Polymers I


AC Tree-Startino Vokige (Wrms)
77 K
LDPE 38.6
XLPE 35
EPR 29
WC (hard) 21.1 19.9

January/February 1997 - Vol. 13, No. 1 13

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