730 IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation , Vol. 9 No.

5,October2002

Progress in Electrothermal Life Modeling of

Eleckical Insulation during the Last Decades
G. C. Montanari, G. Mazzanti, L. Simoni
Department of Elechical Engineefing, University of Bologna, Italy

ABSTRACT
This paper has the purpose of highlighting the achievements during the last decades in life
modeling under electrothermal stress. Phenomenological and physical models are examined,
considering also a statistical approach, with applications to experimental results..

1 INTRODUCTION ments reached in the last two-three decades on the aspects mentioned
above, i.e. life modeling and aging process investigation, referring, in
The last two to three decades have brought considerable contribu- particular, to the huge of work published in the IEEE T ~ ~ ~ ~
tions to the understanding of aging for mate- ACTIONS ON ELECTRICAL INSULATION(TEI), and its successor, the
rials subjected to differenttypes of stress during service operation. In ~ E E E ON D~~~~~~~~~~AND^ E~~~~~~~~~ lNSULA.
the Same period, life modeling has reached significant goals, which TION (TDEI), under the guidance ofthe Editor A. van Roggen, as well as
go fromphenomenologicalframeworksable to lit failure time data lor in the conferencesof the DIELECTRICS AND ELECTRICALINSULATION
various Stresses (singly or ShuItaneouslY applied) and derive Param- SOCIETY (DEIS). Focus is placed, for the sake of brevity, on electrical
eters for 111, to physical and thermal stress, these being the stresses which mostly age and cause
different mechanisms related to insulation degradation [Z, 31: A conse- failure of electricalinsulation systems,
quence of the intense activity carried out with the purpose of under-
standing stress endurance of insulation, has been the introduction of 2 CHARACTERIZATION OF
normative references in IEC and IEEE publications (e.& [&6] regarding INSULATING MATERIALS AND
thermal, electrical, mechanical, environmental and multiple stresses), SYSTEMS
which support the maturity and the progress obtained on this topic. On
the other side, however, theneed of moreand moreknowledge requires 2.1 THERMAL STRESS
further research work (an example of the dissatisfaction of researchers The first of insulation regarded mainly thermal en.
is well represented by the documents coming from the activities of the durance, early insulation system design, in fact, the main require.
Multifactor Stress Committee of the IEEE DEIS, e.g. [7]). ment was to apply a large amount of current, with relatively low volt-
Such a huge amount of work was originated mainly by new needs agevalues andvery low electrical stresses. Then, the insulationovertem-
appearing in the last decades, which can be associated with the in- perature was, mostly, the prevailing aging factor.
creased usage of Polymeric insulation and the recent requirement of In the first half of the 1970s, the problem of modeling endurance of
increasing the d e s i p stress, in order to make more compact devices electrical insulation was well assessed for thermal endurance. In fact,
and to reduce costs without affecting insulation system reliability. The 1930 Montsinger [lo] studied the behavior of some insulating ma-
progressive growth in the use of polymeric materials (which are, Po- terials exposed to high t m p r r a k e s , in ordrr to find the relationship
tentially, cheaper, environmentally compatible, of wider and easier use bebeen temperature and time to failure, the latter defined as the time
and application than the non-polymeric ones) has brought Out a Prob- to reach a pre-established end point for a selected property related to
lem that, perhaps, had not been considered adequately at the h e of aging, nerelationship found by Montsinger was an exponential one
the origin of investigation on electrical breakdown, i.e. agmg. Poly- and thSled him to State the 'Montshger rule': life is halved by
meric materials undergo electrical and thermal degradation, with even a temperature increase of8 to 10°C , On the basis of this empirical rela-
strongly synergistic effects, as well as mechanical and environmental tionship, researchers tried to infer the agmg mechanism due to tenlper-
a@% (here 'a@%' is inknded as the Process leading to i r ~ ~ e ~ s i b lature.
e The most interesting approach was proposed by Dakn in 1948
changes of insulating material properties, which reduce the capability [11]and, successively,in 1960 (121, According to D a w s theory, the ef-
of insulation to withstand stresses). Therefore, fundamental contribu- feet of temperatureis to increase the of reactions, thus the
. tions on breakdown mechanisms (as, e.g. IS, 91) had, and have, to be relationship between the degradation rate R a n d temperature has the
integrated with the description of the aging processes. same form as the equation of the chemical reaction rate, the well-hiown
The purpose of this paper is to provide highlights on the achieve- Arrhenius equation:

107b9878/21$3.00 02002 IEEE

IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation! Val. 9 No. S,October200Z 731

R = R'cxp [-si
where A W is the activation energy of the (main) reaction involved, k.
the Boltzmann constant and 0 the absolute (thermodynamic) tempera-
ture. Since the time for the selected property to reach the end point (i.e.
the fixed limit beyond which the insulation can be considered failed) is
inversely proportional (with proportionality constant C) to its rate of
variation, the time-to-end point, i.e. thermal life, is given by:
[23] or loss of mass [ZO]), while the ordinate intercept of the line is ob-
tained by a conventional life test 141. This may require times shorter
than 1000 h, but the problem that still needs investigation is to find
the most appropriate properties (i.e. those sensitive to the degradation
mechanism expected in service) for categories of materials 1261.
An interesting result of these approaches, involving compensation
effect and analytical measurements, is the set up of a diagnostic tech-
nique to reveal the extent of bulk degradation of polymeric cables (and
which holds, in principle, for any insulation system employing poly-
meric materials sensitive to thermo-electric oxidative processes) 1221.
40
. T=LQo
+ 1=600
A T=90"

Equation (2) is known as the Arrhenius model and is usually repre-

sented in a so-called Arrhenius graph, having coordinates log(L) 3s.
-1/@,wherethemodelgivesrise toa straightlineofslopeB. Thisen-
ables the extrapolation from test to service temperatures. International
Standards have been established to evaluate thermal endurance coeffi-
cients of insulating materials, using indices like TI (temperature index,
the temperature corresponding to a life of 20000 h) and HIC (halving
interval in K, the temperature difference giving rise to halving of life,
starting from the temperature of TI) 141.
Actually, experimental data do not always provide a straight line in
the thermal graph, so various standards provide the statistical means
to check for the linearity. Moreover, Equation (2) can be considered ap-
proximate on the basis of Eyring's approach 1131, according to which
the pre-exponential term of Equation (2) is a function of 0. However,
the indices estimates obtained by Arrhenius or Eyring models generally
are almost coincident [14,15]. Hence, Equation (2) remains the basis
for any thermal test and the Arrhenius graph is commonly used by r e
searchers and engineers. Recent works on thermal life characterization
regard the generalization of the Eyring law to encompass electrother-
mal stress (dealt with below) [16], the observation of the compensation
effect [15,17-19], and the investigation of short-term techniques (ana-
lytical techniques) for the thermal endurance characterization of insu-
lating materials [2C-24]. Figure 1. Life lines for X L P L model cables, aged at different values
of constant electrical stress and temperature (20, 60 and 90°C). "he
The existence of the compensation effect, consisting of a linear re- experimental points, at probability 50% (with confidence intervals at
lationship between the ordinate intercept (log(A)) and the slope ( B ) probability 95%), are plotted both (a) in semilog and (b) in log-log
of the thermal life line, involves changes in the life models, so that e.g., coordinate systems (after [33,34]).
the Arrhenius equation (Equation (2))becomes [15,25]:
L = Acxp [hi b [ A ] k z ] + (3) 2.2 ELECTRICAL STRESS
0
where kl and kz are the regression parameters describing the log(A) As far as electrical (voltage) endurance is concerned, the basis work
as. B relationship. for insulation system design was mainly developed in the seventies.
The investigation of analytical techniques had a more practical con- Life models based either on the inverse power law, like the so-called
sequence, resulting also in an IEC Technical report 1241. The Standard inverse power model (IPM),
procedures 141 require, in fact, >5000 h of testing, which can become L = CIE-" (4)
a significant constraint for the characterization of new materials, es- or on the exponential law,
pecially when technology and material research progress so fast as in L = C~exp[-hE] (5)
recent times. According to 1241, the slope of the thermal endurance line were proposed. C I ,C,, rz and h are constants, depending on temper-
is determined by analytical measurements, which establish the rate of ature and other factors of influence, E is the magnitude of the electric
degradation of a specific property (such as oxidation induction time field. Equations (4) and (5) provide straight lines in log-log or semilog
 732 Montanan: Electrothermal Life Modeling of Electrical Insulation

w - as to derive design field estimation through extrapolation from there-

sults of accelerated life tests, carried out at stresses considerably larger
than the service one. However, both models can acquire a theoretical
‘0
\
- +++*+- , background. The inverse power model was associated to a statistical

. \
r l
.- approach based on the Weibull distribution, generally used for break-
g
:- - down of solid dielectrics, and was applied in particular to power cable
: BO
i .%scwo 6
u insulation [28-301. As regards the exponential model, an exponential
( 0 : dependence of breakdown times on applied stress was first proposed

A threshold behavior, i.e. a tendency of the life line to become hor-

izontal at low gradients, has been observed also for life data plotted
according to the IPM, obtained for various materials see, e.g. F i p e s
1 and 2, where life lines obtained from tests performed on XLPE model
cables and polyimide films are plotted both in semilog and in log-log
coordinate systems [33-351. Tbis promoted the definition of inverse-
power threshold models 11,36361, for example

where Lo is the life for E = EO,and EO is the stress below which

electrical aging can be neglected in the presence of any other stress. The
new concept of threshold for aging has been translated mathematically
as an infinite life for the threshold field in practice, this corresponds
-“,“I , n m m -
,
to an extremely long life at low fields, much longer than that expected
0.1 1 IO Ita Id @,‘ 103
Time [hl from linear extrapolation from high fields.
(b) The determination of threshold opened a clue for insulation design,
Figure 2. Life lines for polyimide films, aged at different values of since designing a system below the threshold would ensure very high
constant electric stress and 180°C. All failure times at each test field reliability, independently of dimensional effect and failure statistics (m
level Ei (i = 1 . . . 7 ) are displayed. A curved l i e is obtained by fact, aging below the threshold would not occur) [35,37]. The intro-
considering the points fit,E, (v; is mean value of failure times at duction of the aging threshold required a modification of the statistical
field E;) and a straight line is obtained by considering the points
framework of life models with respect to the early times [29,30]. A Si-
p t ,E, - Et (E,has been estimated to be 2.8 kV/mm). The ex-
perimental points are plotted in semilog coordinates (a), or in log-log ple approach was to associate the life model to the scale parameter a
coordinates (b) (after [9). of the Weibull function
r ,.,DI
coordinate systems, respectively, with slopes -l/n and - l / h , if, as
F ( t ,E ) = 1 - exp I-(3 I (8)

usual, E is the ordinate and log(L) the abscissa. Coefficient n (or h)is where 0is the shape parameter and t the failure time, so that a general
- called the voltage endurance coefficient (vEC). The larger the vEC, the failure model is obtained, that may differ even significantly from the
better the insulation endurance, i.e. its capability to endure electrical reference Weibull one [35,37,38].
stress. Hence, the VEC is a fundamental parameter for insulation char- Other work on applied statistics was triggered by an increased sen-
acterization (together with electric strength, related to C I and C E ) . sitivity in the statistical treatment of experimental results, and also by
Both models are used for constant-stress tests, although the inverse- vastly more efficient and fast computers, allowing long and complex
power one is more popular, while in the case of increasing-voltage tests calculations such as Monte Carlo simulations. This generated several
the IPM is generally preferred [27]. contributions aiming at the improvement of estimate accuracy of the
These models have essentially an empirical background, because failure probability distribution parameters and percentiles [39-45].
most of the accelerated life test data can be fitted by straight lines in The experimental evidence coming from very long test times of the
log-log or semilog plots. The linearization of the stress-liferelationship existence of a threshold stress, or, in general, the occurrence of upward
is needed to extract coefficients for material characterization, as well and/or downward curvatures of life lines when drawn in log-log and/
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 9 No. 5, October2002 733

or semilog plots, promoted investigations on non-parametric models. 5

Es"
For example, work was made applying the K a h n Filter to electrical,
thermal and electrothermal life test data (46-481. The disadvantage of 9
this approach is that coefficients useful for material characterization, 8
such as the VEC and threshold, are lost, but failure time estimates at
design stresses, based on accelerated life tests, may be considerably
more accurate than by using linear or threshold models. 5

PIP0 , 70 100 7000 >om f

Figure 4. Examples of electric strength Es /Es, us. t curves ob.

tained, at differentfield levels, for two different N values.

temperature but also for other stresses (such as electrical or mechani-

cal ones), this law must overcome the reaction rate theory. Instead of
Equation (7), a general law of the type
A = F ( p ) = Rt (12)
Figure 3. Example of diagnostic property p us. aging time 1, lines in
various cases: a < 0, a = 0, Q > 0. was suggested, where F ( p ) , an unspecified function of property, lin-
early varying with time at constant stress (thus at constant R),can be
defined as total aging A. Hence, the aging rate is R = A / t , depen-
2.3 THE RATE THEORY AND THE dent on stress, not on time. When p reaches the limit value pr,, failure
PHENOMENOLOGICAL AGING OCCUIS and time t becomes life L, thus (12) changes into the general life
THEORY equation
The fundamental aging law proposed by Dakin [ll,121 and other Ar. = F(pr.) = RL (13)
authors, which is the starting point of the rate theory, can be written as which shows that the aging rate and life are inversely proportional
quantities, since L = A & / R .
The phenomenological aging theory proposed by S i o n i is based
where R is the rate of chemical process, a the order of reaction and on Equations (12) and (13) [l, 501. By means of this theory, it is possible
P the property under consideration, which can be defined as the diag- to find the time-variation law of electric strength, Es, for a material
nostic property, r.e. a property having a time behavior correlated with subjected to an electrical Eradient E [49,51]
aging and failure. If Po is the initial value of the property (at t=O)and
p = P/Po its relative value, within the range 1 at t=O and p~ at
t = L, then Equation (9) can be rewritten as where E,T~, is the initial ( a t t i e t=O) value of ES and to is the corre-
dl) = -Rp" (10) sponding time to breakdown at constant stress, N is the so-called VEC
dt [l]. Figure 4 shows examples of curves Es(t) obtained, at different
The integral form of Equation (10) is
field levels, for two different N values. Equation (14) can be written in
a synthetic form as [l]
(11) N+1
1-[2)
The integration of Equation'(l1)provides [49] \ " " I

which relates the two basic quantities for material life, strength ( E s )
1. for a=O,1 - p = Rt; and endurance ( N ) .If N is function of all stresses acting on the ma-
2. for a=l,l l p = exp[Rt];and terial and L is life under combination of such stresses, Equation (IS)
3. forageneralvaluecol, (1/p)--I - 1 = ( a - 1)Rt takes a general validity, including all possible models for aging and life
The pt lines in the various cases are shown in Figure 3. The concav- of insulating materials. Note that the form of Equation (14) is similar to
ity of the curves is always upwards; however it is well known that the the integral of Equation (10) with c1 = -N. This integration provides
shape of practical degradahon curves may be differentand of opposite
curve, with downwards concavity. A typical case of this latter behav- .. , .
ior is the clcctric strength of specimens subjected to electrical stress, so that for the aging rate, the expression
which remains practically constant for a long time and dramatically
drops down approaching breakdown. A downwards curvature can be
obtained from Equation (11) if negative values are taken for a. Since
the order of chemical reaction obviously cannot become negative, this is obtained.
means that, if a general law is searched which is valid not only for Therefore, the general aging equation takes the following expression
734 Montanari: Electrothermal Life Modeling of Electrical Insulation
wherep = Es/Es,. Fort = L, aging becomes agmg at failure AL,
given by 1/(N + 1). "his permits comparison of materials having
different values of A': the larger N, the smaller the aging at failure, but
much more reduced the aging rate, so aging at any time is smaller and
life is longer.
A similar approach holds, in principle, for any other diagnostic
property and for other stresses, properly modifying the expression of
R. Agmg and life models can then be checked observing various ag-
ing markers which are sensitive to the degradation caused by different
stresses.
2
Figure 5. Graphical representation of the life surface given by Equa-
tion (23).
2.4 MULTISTRESS
The problem of electrothermal life modeling was intensively inves-
tigated in the seventies and eighties, either starting from the Eyring
law 1131, or by composing thermal and elechical models (e.g. [52,53]).
The clue for the construction of an electrothermal life model is to ex-
plain thoroughly the dependence of the model parameters on the two
stresses, electrical and thermal (otherwise, an electrical life model can
be used to fit to any set of data coming from life tests performed at a
given temperature under different levels of electrical field, or vice versa,
referring to thermal life models). The other important aspect is to intro-
duce appropriate additional terms in order to account for the synergism
between electrical and thermal stress.
Accordingly, Endicott et nl. explained the dependence of thermal
reaction rate parameters as a function of electrical stress (the same ap-
proach works for mechanical stress [54]),rewriting the Eyring equation
as 1161
where S is stress (electrical or mechanical), k l , kz, k~ are constants,
independent of time, temperature and stress; exponent w % 1. If
f(S)= 0, Equation (19) becomes the thermal life equation, different
from Equation (1)only in the pre-exponential term Ow,hence in the
form of the above mentioned Eyring model for thermal aging. Similar
models were obtained by other researchers [53,55].
If 0 is constant and S = E (electrical stress), Equation (19) be-
comes
T increasing
E.
(a) '- log L
log L
E S E.
Ea
E'
Tm
(c)
Figure 6 . Intersections of the surface of Figure 5 with the coordinate
planes for (a) constant T ,electrical life lines at various temperatures;
(b) for constant E , thermal life lines at various electrical stresses; and
(c) for constant L, isochronal or E-T lines.
R ( E ) = C'exp[hf(E)] (20)
with h = k z + k3/@ and C' = klOWexp[-B/O]. Consider-
ing f(E)= E , the exponential model for electrical life is obtained
(Equation (5)),whereas for f(E) = log[E] the inverse power model
is achieved (Equation (4)). Therefore, the fundamental relationships for
life of electrical insulation as a function of temperature and/or electri-
cal stress are included in Equation (19), so that this equation can then
be taken as a h e a r (in semilog, three dimensional plot [56])combined-
stress model. It must be underlined that expression (19)is a multiplica-
tive one, i.e. the thermal and electrical rates are multiplied to obtain
the combined-stress rate. However, it takes into account a dependence
of the VEC on temperature. Rearranging Equation (19), Simoni con-
structed his first model with proper boundary conditions [1,56]. This
model can be written as
L = Lo exp(-BT hE' + bE'T]
~
(21)
where E' is electrical stress, given by E - Eo, or log[E/E,,], ac-
cording to the selected electrical model exponential or inverse-power,
respectively; Tis thermal stress, defined as T = 1 / 0 0 1 / 0 , and~
Oo the temperature below which thermal aging can be neglected; often
room temperature is taken for convenience. This model provides 4 co-
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation
Figure 7. Scheme of an ac-power network r*.ith distorting and non-
distorting loads (a); examples of distorted voltage waveform recorded
in an electrical plant, at a MVILV bus (distortiondue to the presence
of a 5th harmonic) (b), and of a typical voltage waveform at FWM-
controlled motor terminals (c).
efficients for insulation characterization, i.e. B and h for thermal and
electrical endurance, respectively, b for the extent of stress synergism,
and LOas the scale parameter. This model was fitted satisfactorily to
several sets of data, relevant to different materials 157-601.
However, the discovery of the existence of a threshold field and the
consequent modification of the electrical life models (e.g. Equations (6)
and (7)) forced changes in the multistress model, in such a way that
the life line tends to horirontality when stress tends to the threshold.
The tendency of the electrical life towards infinity at room temperature
implies the existence of a threshold temperature not lower than room
temperature. Then, both single-stress models must be changed by the
introduction of a denominator tending to 0 when stress tends to the
threshold value. The simplest expression of this denominator D is
D=--1
S
(22)
st
S being the generic stress, either T or E'. Starting from Equa-
tion (Z), the multistress threshold model that satisfies the boundary
conditions and gives rise to a threshold line (D-0) having a shape in
aareement with the exoerimental data becomes II.611
where Tt, and E:,, are the threshold values of T for E':O and of
Vol. 9 No. 5,October2002 735
E' for T=O,respectively; IC, is a coefficient affecting the shape of the
isochronal lines, i.e. the constant life lines obtained from the life model
for given life values and corresponding to proper E' and T values; see
later, in Figure 6c.
Model (23) is valid for threshold materials, whereas model (21) is
for no-threshold ones. The two models can be unified in a single model,
valid for threshold and no-threshold materials 1621, if the denominator
of Equation (23) is raised to an exponent p = p ( E ,T )such that p=O
if both stresses are larger than the thresholds, i.e. T T,, and E' 2 >
E;, (behavior as no-threshold material), and p 0 if at least one of the
stresses is lower than the threshold (behavior as threshold material).
Then, for p=O, D=1 and the model coincides with Equation (ZI),
which holds in the absence of thresholds, while for p=1, model (23)
is found again. Of course, this new general model may be modified
further to account for the more complex practical cases 1631, but this
leads to useless complications from a practical point of view.
It should be emphasized that the combined-stress life equation rep-
resents a surface, the life surface of the material or system under con-
Fideration. Figure 5 shows, as an example, the surface of Equation (23).
The surface has three types of intersections with the coordinate planes:
1. For constant T , the electrical life lines at various temperatures
(Figure 64;
2. For constant E, the thermal life lines at various electric stresses
(Figure 6b); and
3. For constant L, the isochronal (or E-T)lines (Figure 6c).
The threshold line has a special significance among the E-T lines
(see Figure 6c). Indeed, the knowledge of this line allows evaluation of
the long-term behavior of materials to be carried out. Determination of
this lime, which should be the main purpose of an endurance test, may
be possible within'a reasonable time by resorting to the test method
proposed in references [1,64,65], independently of any mathematical
model. Another method for long-term endurance evaluation, using the
quite complex equalization of aging rate theory, is proposed in 1661.
100
0.)
, , - 10
f i m e ~ f o ~ e npdi n t [hl
100 >om
Figure 8. Electrical life line for self-healing capacitors subjected to
various combinations of lundamental and harmonic voltage compv
nents (after [69]); the voltage peak is used as y-axis The failure times
are mean values. Results obtained under 50 Ha sinusoidal voltage are
also shown.
 736 Montanan: Electrothermal Life Modeling of Electrical Insulation

harmonic components, w1 and wo are the angular frequency of the fun-

damental component and the reference sinusoid (50 or 60 Hz), h i s the
harmonic order, ah = V,, /VI. This approach leads to the following
electrothermal life model (which includes all the significant aging fac-
tors and uses the Arrhenius model, Equations (3) and @I), to account
, for thermal degradation)

L =L ~ K ; " ~ K ~ exp[-~w]
~ ~ P K ~ (27) ~ ~ ~
where Ls is life under reference sinusoidal conditions.
Different estimates of the model coefficients are reported in [69] for
self-healing capacitors and cable-grade crosslinked polyethylene (XLPE)
om, 001 01 I 10 100 ,om i"O 10"
1 specimens. The time-varying behavior of harmonics can be taken into
Failure tlme [h] account through statistical approaches, where cumulative degradation
Figure 9. Electric life lines for motor winding specimens (twisted
laws (e.g. [71])areused [72].
pairs), insulated by polyamide-imide(failure probability 63.2%). Ihe Considerable aging acceleration effects can occur also on insulation
results are relevant to life tests under 10 kHa sinusoidal wave, in the of ac motors controlled by inverters (e.g. used for speed control). As
presence (when in air) and in the absence (cvhen in oil) of PD. A com- shown in Figure 7c, motors are subjected to square waveforms, with
parkon with the results obtained at 50 Hz is shown. high rate of voltage rise and commutation frequency, which, moreover,
may present commutation spikes and ringing related to impedance mis-
2.5 GENERALIZATION TO matches of the chain inverter-connecting cable-motor [7>76). Several
works focused on the aspects of the voltage waveform which affect
.NON-SINUSOIDALWAVEFORMS
more significantly insulation degradation, from the rate of voltage rise
The above electrothermal life models hold for sinusoidal electrical to the peak and frequency (e.8. [7>78]). Figure 9 reports data at fail-
field (at 50 and 60 Hz, or moderately higher frequency [65,67]),dc field, ure probability 63.2%, obtained for motor winding specimens (twisted
and constant temperature. However, the large, and still increasing, dif- pairs), insulated by polyimide-amide. The results are relevant to life
fusion of power conditioning systems using electronic components has tests under bipolar square voltage wave, 10 kHz, carried out above or
opened new perspectives for aging investigation of electrical insula- below the threshold for PD inception. The comparison with the results
tion systems, i.e. the effect of voltage distortion on aging acceleration. obtained at 50 Hz sinusoidal voltage shows the dramatic life shorten-
As shown by Figure 7, electronic power conditioners, such as ac/dc ing effect due to the applied non-sinusoidal voltage which simulates,
converters, inject harmonic currents in electrical networks (Figure 7a), according to 1791, the bipolar phase to ground square wave supplying
which may distort voltage (Figure 7b)applied to any electrical appa- controlled motors. Several tests underlined that the main factors caus-
ratus connected with network buses (mainly at the MV/LV side) [68]. ing accelerated aging (besides frequency) are voltage waveform peak
Voltage distortion may increase the peak and/or the rms and the rate and shape;so that a model was proposed for electrical stress-life rela-
of voltage rise with respect to sinusoidal conditions, and this can cause tionship, similar to Equation (27), i.e. h e a r in log-log plot 1781, Le.
accelerated aging both in the presence and in the absence of partial dis- L = .CK;("'+"l"I~'l)K~np P (28)
charges (PD). Extensive research has shown that the main factor for where the coefficient K f defmed in Equation (24)must be rewritten for
accelerated degradation is voltage peak 1691 or a parameter related to square waveforms as follows
it 1701. As an example, Figure 6 shows electrical life data at probabil-
ity 63.2% for self-healing capacitors subjected to various combinations
of fundamental and harmonic voltage components (described in [69]).
and f is the switching frequency, t , the rise time of the considered
Using the voltage peak as :y axis and a log-log plot, a good fit to straight
waveform, here equal to the fall time; X is a coefficient depending on
l i e s can be obtained, which means that simple models such as the in-
waveform shape (e.8. X=2 or 2& for unipolar or bipolar waveforms,
verse power one (Equation (4)) can hold also in the case of voltage dis-
tortion. However, a more general data processing involves three basicrespectively), and C a scale coefficient. The temperature dependence
quantities extracted from voltage waveform, i.e. of C can be expressed, as for Equation (27), by the Arrhenius law. It
I hi must be underlined that model (26) must be applied to failure times
caused by homogeneous degradation mechanisms, i.e. to stresses either
above or below the the PD inception threshold. The whole life behavior,
including failures due to PD, and in the absence of PD, can be described
only by curvilinear models even in log-log or semilog plots. In some
cases, considerina the much lareer
" a ~ n acceleration
Y
a Y
due to PD with
Y

respect to the absence of PD,threshold models as Equations (6) or (7)

(26) might be applied.
where V; is the reference (50 or 60 Hz)croltage, VP and &I are peak it is noteworthy that the electrical field applied to wire and ground
and rms value of the considered waveform, N is the number of voltage insulation of the first windings at the motor terminals can be much

IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation
larger than at 50 Hz (at the same nominal rms voltage), due to the
uneven potential distribution which is caused by the high frequency
content of the supply voltage waveform and the stray stator circuit pa-
rameters. Hence, voltage peak amplification can be the main cause of
premature motor failure.
I
100 f
Figure 10. R e characteristic Sshaped c w e of electrical life. The
shaded area corresponds to the treeing growth. E, is the tree incep-
tion field, Et the electrical threshold, and t is aging time.
3 ELECTROTHERMAL
DEGRADATION AND
PHYSICAL MODELS'
An example of the characteristic Sshaped curve of electrical life is
shown in Figure 10. The shaded area corresponds to the treeing growth.
For high electrical fields, larger than the tree inception voltage, electri-
cal trees occur since the beginning of voltage application. For smaller
gradients there is a period during which no PD can be detected this
is the period of treeing formation or treeing incubation. In fact, at a
certain aging time, trees start, and increase to insulation breakdown:
this is the period of tree growth. For very low gradients the line tends
to horizoutality and life tends to become extremely long: a threshold
exists below which electrical aging does not occur anymore:
Referring to the last two decades, the major advances in under-
standing degradation mechanisms under electrothermal stress regard
the last period of aging, Le. the growth of electrical trees, as well as
some phenomena occurring in the period of tree induction (or incuba-
tion), particularly those relevant to water tree growth. Tree incubation
can be affected by several factors, e.8. stress magnitude, environmen-
tal conditions, material structure properties, including the presence of
impurities and microcavities [80].It will take, in general, much longer
time than tree growth, especially close to service stresses, so that inves.
tigating the incubation period still constitutes an important challenge.
For high stresses, on the contrary, the tree growth period becomes prac-
tically coincident with the time to breakdown, i.e: the insulation life.
3.1 WATER TREEING
A deeply investigated phenomenon, which gave rise to significant
economical losses to utilities, is water treeing, caused by the synergistic
effect of electrothermal stress and environment. This problem appeared
dramatically in the seventies, affecting HV and mediun-voltage poly-
meric cable reliability and constituting an accelerated path to electrical
treeing and cable breakdown. Several theories have been proposed to
~
Vol. 9 No. S,October2002 737
explain this phenomenon, involving dielectrophoresis,diffusion, chem-
ical potentials, electro-osmosis, hydrostatic or gas pressure, Maxwell
stress, dielectric heating, electrostriction,and other processes which de-
scribe tree inception and propagation, but none has been considered to
provide an exhaustive answer. A huge amount of research work and
papers (e.g. [3,8@89]) has been produced, and research is still going
on, mainly in the direction of studying new, water tree resistant ma-
terials (mostly polyethylene based). However, this is likely one of the
cases where the pragmatic approach of cable manufacturers achieved
faster results than research: reasonable cable reliability even in wet en-
vironment was obtained, in fact, using an outer metallic shield, as for
oil/paper cables.
log(l [ml)
-5
-6
-7
-8
-9
9
-10
6 7 8 9 10
IodE Iviml)
Figure 11. Relation between electrical field E, free path of charge
carriers in an insulating material I, and the energy gained by the car-
riers in a free path (expressedin eV). After [90].
3.2 ELECTRICAL TREEING:
GENERAL CONSIDERATIONS
ON ITS MECHANISM
The factors affecting electrical tree incubation in dry conditions be-
long to those mentioned above for water trees, but the degradation
mechanisms follow different paths, being even more sensitive than in
the case of water trees to electrical field magnitude, microstructure, di-
electric and mechanical properties (3,801. The mechanisms generating
the amount of damage needed to incept electrical trees at high fields
were attributed generally to bond disruption caused by highly ener-
getic exchanges between charge carriers accelerated by electric field in
insulation cavities (ig. hot electrons) and insulating material structure
(lattice). An example of this interpretation is given by Figure 11, taken
from Jonscher-Lacoste[90]. It shows that the combination of high fields
(Le. high supply voltage and/or suitable geometrical factors enhancing
locally internal field) and long free paths @.e. large microcavities) can
increase the kinetic energy of charge carriers (mainly electrons). This
can cause severe insulation damage, through impact ionization, bond
breakdown, free radical formation, secondav electron emission and
avalanche generation [3,91-941, which promotes cavity growth until
738 Montanan: Electrothermal Life Modeling of Electrical Insulation
avalanches involve so much charges and energy that PD can be ob-
served in the external measurement circuit [95-97). PD inception is the
last stage of electrical tree induction period. At high fields PD, in the
form of avalanches, translate very quickly into an electrical tree which,
in turn, rapidly grows until breakdown.
The interaction of.different mechanisms, function of material mor-
phology, distribution, type and size of defects and impurities, as well
as stress magnitude, did not allow the achievement of a set of models
(certainly not a single model) able to describe thoroughly the electrical
tree incubation period, unless specific assumptions regarding material
microstructure, type and size of cavities and defects, range of applied
fields and temperatures are made.
Breakdown phenomena at high fields have been extensively investi-
gated, going from models based simply on energy threshold for grow-
ing damage to more complex models which consider morphological
features typical of polymers, such as the presence of the three phases
(crystalline, paracrystalline and amorphous), of defects with tips able
to enhance field significantly, of localized states able to trap charge car-
riers. Life models belonging to the former family are, for example, the
Fowler-Nordheim one, which was applied to breakdown due to mas-
sive injection or fast-growing electrical treeing [2,98,99]
where C' and B are material parameters, qh is the effective work func-
tion of the injecting electrode, Et is the threshold field above which the
injected electrons generate enough energy to enable growing of dam-
age. The existence of an aging threshold comes out clearly from Fig-
ure 12, where data obtained from electrical life tests at very high fields,
performed by the needleplane configuration on PE specimens, are fit-
ted to Equation (30) [98,100].
. .
loo0 I I I the shorter the life. Injected charge is given by (1061
\'
:L
O io iw too0 1-10' 1.105 1.106
LIS1
Figure 12. Data obtained from electrical life tests (at room temper-
ature) performed by the needle-plane configuration on PE specimens,
fitted to the Fowler-Nordheim model (Equation(30)).After [98,100].
3.3 INFLUENCE OF SPACE
CHARGE AND RELATED
MODELS
Referring to Figure 12, it must be underlined that the field values
reported in the ordinate axis are calculated geometrically The real field
in insulation can be, however, considerably different from that expected
from the knowledge of the external (Laplacian)field and the electrode
geometry Expressions for geometric field are provided in the literature
for several different electrode or metallic particle configurations, e.g.
[101,1021, due to, e.g. the hyperlmear (exponential) field dependmce
of mobility and the accumulation of space charges at the electrode (de-
fect)/insulation interface. It is shown in [103], for example, that urtder
the assumption of absence of space charges, a field limiting effect is
obtained, for a coaxial geometry, which constitutes the basis of defect-
tolerant dielectric system design. In the presence of space charges, the
situation becomes more complex, according to the description reported
in [10P106]. A threshold field E, was introduced, below which the
standard space charge limited current (SCLC) model holds (1071. i.e.
space charge accumulation occurs at the electrodeidielectric interface
(accumulationoccurs above another field Et, much lower than the for-
mer [108,109]), and above which the strongly nonlinear dependence of
mobility on electric field causes space charge clouds (or packets [IIO])
to diffuse in the insulation bulk, and reduces the electric field at the
electrodeidielectric interface. Sharp electrodes, such as metallic parti-
cles, which generate highly inhomogeneous fields are mostly consid-
ered. R e field-limited space-charge currents (FLSC), thus produced,
may cause dielectric heating (under ac voltage), as well as Maxwell
stress (enhanced by a factor related to E, and electrode radius) which
will incept local damage (particularly if fdamentary currents are gener-
ated) [104]. An electrical life model can be derived from this approach
considering that life is inversely proportional to injected charge Q
L - Q-' (31)
since the higher the charge, the larger the extent of degradation, thus
where R is the tip radius of the injecting electrode and V, the external
voltage at which E, is reached.
Equation (32) holds for 1V1 > V', while it provides zero charge,
thus infinite life, for field lower than the threshold. Depending on the
ratio between intemal field and critical (threshold) fihd, EIE,, the
local damage will grow instantaneously into an electrical tree, hence
to breakdown, or it will cause breakdown in longer times, through an
incubation period during which the initial defect forms a cavity of in-
creasing size, then PD occurs, followed by treeing.
This picture agrees well with the theory behind Figure 11, but it has
been speculated recently that long-term degradation of polymeric in-
sulation can OCCUI at fields much lower than E,, which is of the order
of 100 kV/mm. Experimental results show that breakdown OCCUIS also
at low fields (see, e.g. Figures 1, 2) and, in fact, threshold field values
for electrical aging which are -.lo% of the initial electric strength were
observed for both dc and ac stresses [3M5,111]. Even considering in-
ternal defects as cavities, the field amplification will not reach values
IEEE Transactions on Dielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 9 No. 5,October2002 739

dation reaction that affects a moiety The current expression of.the space
. .
charee life model is .1113.1141
Y

h exp[d]In[B]
L ( E ,0 ) = -
2 k 0 cosh[C]

'13)

h - C'E2b
c= k
20
where A,,(E) is the equilibrium value of A, the conversion rate of
\ I moieties from state 1to 2. Other quantities that appear in Equation (33)
are: A*, the critical limit of A (when exceeded, failure is said to take
place); h a n d k the Planck and Boltzmann constants, respectively; C'
+
and b, material constants; A H = Ha ( H I H z ) / 2 and A, =
~

j , ,,LA
m

10' 10'
,

,I 10. 10' 10" 10' 10"

+
Sa- (4 S 2 ) / 2are the enthalpy and entropy contributions of acti-
vation free energy per moiety ( H and S are enthalpy and entropy per
moiety). Figure 13b shows the experimental points at probability 63.2%,
derived from dc electrical life tests performed on XLPE insulation and
(bi L m, the relevant life line obtained applying the space charge life model of
Equation (33) [114]. From this latter Figure, two main observations can
Figure 13. (a) free energy diagram illustrating the degradation reac- be made: firstly, a fairly good model fit is achieved at high fields, i.e.
tion path; @) Experimental points (probability 63.2%) derived from dc those at which the accelerated life tests were carried out; secondly, the
electrical life tests performedon XLPE insulation and life line obtained model clearly exhibits an electrical threshold at low fields, that cannot,
applying the space charge life model of Equation (33) (after [Ill]).
however, be checked by life tests, due to their excessive duration.
so large as those expected in Equation (31), and cavity size may be not 'Strictly speaking, model (33) holds for dc voltage only However, it
large enough to allow generation of electron avalanches. This is partic- has been attempted to apply it also for ac voltage by splitting activa-
ularly evident for dc electrical stress which, especially in the presence tion entropy and enthalpy into a dc part plus an ac contribution, the
of voltage polarity inversions, causes premature insulation failure even latter proportional to W,,l(w),the mechanical energy of the polymer
at low stresses, due to the presence of space charges. lattice that oscillates at a frequency f (angular frequency w = Znf)
equal to that of the supply voltage 11131. Then, by proper rearrange-
Therefore, the soTalled space charge life model was proposed in ments (extensively described in [113]),the ac version of the model i s
[96,112-114], that explains electrothermal aging as caused by the elec- obtained (omitted here for the sake of brevity), similar to the dc one
tromechanical energy stored in space charge centers. According to a (Equation (33)), but with additional ac terms containing a proper func-
thermodynamic approach, time-to-failure is assumed as inversely pro- tion of frequency, i.e.
portional to the rate constant of the main degradation reaction. The rate
W2
constant rises with temperawe and is govemed by a free energy bar- (34)
f ( w ) = (w wo)2 + ?2
~

rier (between reactant state and degraded state) that must be overcome
in order that the degradation reaction can take place. It is then assumed where wuis the natural oscillation frequency . . of the lattice and y is a
that electric field lowers such barrier by rising reactant free energy of an damping constant. The model, arranged in this way, provides an ex-
amount proportional to the electromechanical energy stored in space planation for ac degradation at moderate to low fields, which involves
charge centers. Figure 13a illustrates the degradation reaction path in electromechanical fatigue.
the absence (solid line) and in the presence (dashed line) of voltage; G As can be seen, model (33) is fully explained as a function of applied
is free energy, subscripts 1, a, and 2 are relevant to reactant, activated stresses, namely electric field and temperature, Its parameters are AH,
and degraded state of the reacting polymer units (referred to as moi- As, A, b, C', and A*. They are related to microstructure, thermody-
eties), A = GZ GI, and A, = G, (GI G z ) / are
~ ~ + ~ free namic properties and space charge characteristics of the material, thus
energy barrier and activation free energy per moiety in the absence of most of them can be derived by short-term analytical measurements.
voltage, A ( E ) is the free energy barrier in the presence of an applied The limits of validity of the space charge model come from the as-
field E. sumptions on which it is based. First of all, the model holds for materi-
The model, initially conceived only for the dc regime, was devel- als that are homogeneous on a macroscale, but contain microcavities or
oped over the last few years by attempting to extend it5 application to small dishomogeneities (including the paracrystalline phase, the pres-
the ac regime [113] and by introducing the concept of elemental strain ence of clusters of contaminants) which can act as space charge cen-
11141, i.e. the mechanical deformation associated with each single degra- ters. Moreover, the source of degradation, according to model (33), is
 740 Montanan: Electrothermal Life Modeling of Electrical Insulation

stored electromechanical energy Such energy will give rise to strains expression (35) to the scale parameter, when the inversion frequency is
that enlarge already-existing cavities [95] up to the dimension which established (even throu h a robability distribution).
can incept PD. After PD inception, the aging mechanism will be dif- 3.4 ELECfROMECHANICAL AND
ferent, since degradation will be led by highly energetic reactions (90, ELECTROKINETIC MODELS
107,115,116,117],causing chain scission and growth of damage until
An attention to electromechanical effects, at low and high fields, as
the eventual start of the electrical tree. Thus, the space charge model
the trigger of degradation processes in the incubation period of electri-
can only give an estimate of the time to PD inception, and not of the
cal trees, through microvoid enlargement, constitutes also the basis of
total time to breakdown. As a consequence, such model can provide
the modeling work from Lewis et al. [12C-l22]. The final stage of aging,
insulation life inference only at medium to low field levels, at which the
promoting the appearance of electrical trees, is explained by the Grifnth
above-described highly energetic degradation mechanisms [hot elec-
crack propagation theory The time t to initiate crack growth (assumed
trons, etc.) are not active [106-108], and the time to formation of cavities to be largely predominant in the total failure process, thus coinciding
large enough for starting PD activity is much longer than tree growth
with life), is given by
time.
It is noteworthy that model (33)is not in contrast with(31),the latter
accounting for breakdown time at very high fields. These models ap-
plied together would be-able to describe the typical double curvature
(or Sshaped: see Figure 10) shown by electrical life lmes when plotted
from fields close to breakdown strength down to the lowest threshold.
From high to medium field, in fact, the life line (plotted in log-log or where h and k are, as usual, the Planck and Boltzmam constants, N
semilog E us. L coordinate systems) shows generally a steep change of is the number of breakable bonds, U, and Ub are the energies for bond
slope (from low to high, i.e. downward curvature), so that small vari- forming and breaking, respectively, q is the number of broken bonds
ations of field are associated with large variation of life. This behavior and qc is its critical value. This model shows a threshold field below
could be described as a transition from model (31),with fields above the which electrical degradation does not occur. It would not differ sig-
threshold field to reach the high-mobility region, to model (33). Close nificantly from the space charge model of Equation (33), in respect of
to the lowest aging threshold, the slope of the life line again decreases the thermodynamic basis, electromechanical energy causing local dam-
steeply (upward curvature), giving rise to extremely long lives, as ex- age, partially-reversible reactions and existence of electrical threshold,
pected from Equation (33):see Figure 2a as an example 1351. but it does not consider the presence of space charges as the trigger for
degradation.
The relation between space charge phenomena and life under dc
stress with voltage polarity inversions (experienced by dc HV cables The thermodynamic approach is also followed by another model
for power flow regulation) has been investigated in [118,119]referring which considers damage deriving from high to low-energy electrons,
to life tests and space charge measwements performed on several PE- accelerated in microcavities according to the scheme of Figure 11 and
based materials. AS a first approximation, a linear function was found thus holding mamly for defected materials [19,67,123],i.e.
to be able to describe the relation between the logarithm of the ratio of
life without ( L )and with inversions (Li)and the logarithm of space (37)
charge derived quantities
where 6, also called the scattering distance, is the width of the energy
= AI + A2 In[qs(E)] + ABl n [ E ~ , v ( E ) ] barrier with height AG, related to the microstructural characteristics
(35) of the material, e is the electronic charge accelerated by electric field so
+ A d In[s(E)]+ As In[f] as to gain mean energy e6E. Equation (37) simplifies for high electrical
w h e r e q s ( E ) , E N M ( E ) a n d s ( E ) areobtainedbyspacechargemea- stresses, where the aging reaction prevailingly goes in the forward di-
surements (see e.8. [109]), f is the voltage inversion frequency and rection, to an exponential model similar to the D a h one, Equation (5)
AI to AS are model coefficients. Precisely, qs(E) is the total abso- 131,321. The electrical threshold, in this case, is associated with the
lute stored charge density in steady state during poling at field E, minimum energy required to break Van der Waals bonds. A relation
ENM ( E ) is the maximum electric field in the specimen thickness after between 6 and the time of formation of submicrocavities in the mate-
polarity inversion, s ( E )is the slope of the depolarization characteris- rial, due to bond breakdown, is proposed in [123]. It is noteworthy
tic obtained by plotting qs(E,t ) as a function of depolarization time that the temperature dependence of model parameters (i.e. C, 6) is not
t. The model has a large number of coefficients, which, however, can explained as function of temperature, so that the model can fit exper-
be estimated resorting to a few life tests and space charge measure- imental results of electrical life tests at given temperatures but cannot
ments [118,119]. However, a further simplification, which still provides be exploited to temperatures different from the test ones. Moreover,
good data fitting, is feasible, neglecting term E N Mand considering also the dependence of 6 on time is unexplained, which characterizes
A,=l [119]. This model can be applied to estimate the expected life the model as a static one, with 6 having a time-averaged value. On
of cables (or, in general, insulation systems) at a chosen failure per- the other hand, all models described above are static models, with the
centile. The Weibull distribution, Equation (17),can be used associating exception of the nonparametric Kalman-filter approach [47]).
 ~

IEEE Transactions onDielectrics and Electrical Insulation Vol. 9 No. 5,October2002 741

100, between the discharge inception and extinction voltages measured dy-
t - EPR data at 100T
model
naniically) and the Miner (cumulative damage) law [l,711. The reaction

Faol
rate is adapted to the modification of the diagnostic property as func-
.
k BO
tion of aging time, allowing for dynamic residual life prediction (as e.g.
in the case of an autoregressive procedure [47]). The aging amount at
failure is expressed as
h/_>

“8
.3 o b ]
20

ET-
0
1oO 10‘ lr? loj ld lor 106

Figure 14. Experimental life times at probability 50%, obtained from

with Do and Dt the reference diagnostic property at the beginning of
tests performed on EPR cables at IOOT, fitted successfully to model
aging and at timet, respectively, uiis the extent (in relative,value) of
(41).
consumed life a at the ith measurement, si is the sojoum time between
i a n d i + l , r o andrt theelectroderadiusand theradiusofthedamaged
3.5 MATCHING OF (delaminated) region at time t, n the VEC (Equation (4)). According to
THERMODYNAMIC AND Equation (13),predicted life after diagnostic measurements at time t i s
PHENOMENOLOGICAL extracted from Equations (40) and (41) as the ratio between aging limit
MODELS at failure, FL, and aging rate constant R.
Working on this kind of approach, and expressing in an appropriate ‘Electrical tree growth mechanisms have been modeled resorting to
way the temperature dependence of the Eyring law [21], thermody- various approaches, from physical to purely phenomenological, which
namic models without and with threshold are obtained which can be were investigated extensively during the last few decades and are still

L = -exp
h
k0
[+
-DL
exp [z
transformed to the phenomenological models (21) and (23) [124], i.e.
-- -
k
~

k@
under study [97-100,126-135]. Considerable steps forward in the in-
crease of knowledge on this phenomenon came from the possibility
to carry out simultaneous PD and electroluminescence measuremen@
[126]. A precursor model was presented in 11271, which holds for ini-
kexp [q;] E& exp [% - 9 ‘El - tiation and growth of electrical trees in polymeric cable insulation. It
L= (39) assumes that local stress enhancements, which can take place in insula-
( E - E,O)r
where Dr, is the activation enthalpy of the main degradation reaction tion due, for example, to contaminants or protrusions, cause inception
and Db is the relevant activation entropy in correspondence with the of PD in adjacent small cavities once the electric field exceeds a thresh-
chosen end-point, 6)0 and 61 are the coefficients of the (assumed) linear old value Etg.Electric charges thus penetrate into the insulation, giv-
+
dependence of b on temperature, namely a(@) = SO 610, E,(@) ing rise to channels which form the electrical tree and grow with time
and E,, are the threshold fields at a given temperature 0 and at refer- until breakdown. The resulting model is
ence temperature OO,respectively, and fi is an exponent that govems
the tendency of electrical life lines to threshold. . . . . .
3.6 ELECTRICAL TREE GROWTH where f is the frequency of the supply voltage, bl to bd are parameters
which depend upon the material, temperature and geometry These
Focusing on the latest stages of agmg before breakdown, a huge constants, besides Et,, constitute the five parameters of the model
amount of work and significant step forward have been made in recent (which are not explained, however, as function of temperature). It is
years on PD detection and PD degradation mechanism interpretation. noteworthy that Equation (42) is a threshold model, and indeed, the
Digital systems for PD measurement have allowed many quantities to needle-plane tests generally carried out to investigate electrical tree
be derived, providing a broad picture of the PD degradation-related inception and growth provided often life data following a threshold
phenomena. Some of these have been proved to be associated with the behavior. In addition, it is mentioned in [I281 that a critical field (again
degradation amount, thus becoming diagnostic quantities (the work on a threshold) exists above which a continuous propagation of discharges .
this field is so extensive that it is even difficult to select a few papers in tree channels is assured. Figure 14 shows experimental results,
for the Reference section). Hence, the growth of damage under the PD obtained from tests performed on EPR cables, fitted successfully to
regime may allow, in principle, an aging model to be applied where the model (42). As mentioned above, the tree growth time is much shorter
diagnostic property is associated with PD quantities. than the incubation time, at medium to low fields, thus tc << L,
Examples of this kind of approach are provided by [59,125]. In par- while at very high field the approximation tc x L may hold.
ticular, the model proposed in 1125) provides a dynamic description On the basis of the observation that the electrical tree has a frac-
of damage growth, following the above-described phenomenological tal structtue [129-131] and referring to the same growth mechanism
approach (Equations (12) and (13), where property p is the difference described above, another model which includes explicitly the fractal
 742 Montanan: Electrothermal Life Modeling of Electrical Insulation

dimension of tree d, was proposed [1291, ;.e. diffusion of polymeric materials, very sensitive to electrothermal ag-

tc =
Sc Nc 5 ing, generated the industrial need of stress design estimation, at fixcmd
(43) failure probability Phenomenological models have the merit to pro-
~.
CxPlLha(E)1 .. - 1
where SC.is the number of tree branches at failure (end point), Nc is vide methods for material endurance comparison, test plan, insulation
a parameter related to material, Lb is tree-branch length and cy is pri- system design. Physical investigations still suffer for the inherent corn-
mary ionization coefficient of the Townsend avalanche model [3]. De- plexity of the agihg means under electrical stress which promote at the
pending on the (Y us. E relationship, the model can have four or more same time local and bulk degradation, but can also cause failure in insu-
parameters, which, however, are unexplained functions of temperahre, lation systems that have not suffered bulk aging at all. However, recent
and, thus different life characteristics with or without threshold can be techniques for the measurement of space charges and microstructural
obtained from Equation (43). observation have brought encouraging results which are increasing the
understanding of aging processes. This finds considerable support in
Aging and life models based on tree growth and PD measurements
the growing computing facilities, which allow simulationof more and
are reported in [132], which are based on the phenomenological ap-
more complex phenomena to be performed and artificial intelligence
proach(withdiagnosticpropertyconsistingofquanti1esof the PD height
tools to be employed.
distribution [136]), the expression of tree growth rate from [127], a
threshold model for the dependence of tree length on electrical stress The contribution to this evolution from the DEIS, and in particular,
and the fractal dimension of tree d 1129,1331.The life model becomes from the Transactions, has been vital, providing a discussion forum for
theory and experiment, as well as educating a series of new generations
to this complex, interdisciplinar and fascinating science.
(44)
where Q,,Lis charge height at a given percentile, corresponding to the REFERENCES
fixed end point, and related to charge penetration depth [132], k l and [I] L. Simani, Fundamentals of endurance of electrical insulating materials, CLUEB
kd are coefficients depending on material and tree growth phenomenol- Publ., Bologna, Italy, 1 i t issue1983,Z nd issue in Italian 1994 (English version pro-
vided on request by the author)
ogy, and Et is the threshold. This model may be employed to estimate
121 T. Tanaka, A. Greenwwd. Advanced power cable technology, CRC p s i , Boa Ra-
the failure time of an insulation once a limiting value for the amount ton, Florida, 1983.
of the chosen charge height quantile has been selected. It can be used, 131 L. A. Dissado, I. C. Fothergill, Electrical degradation and breakdown in polymers,
hence, for insulation system diagnosis and residual life prediction, once I? Percgrinus, London, 1992.
on-line PD measurements are performed, thus acquiring a dynamic fea- 111 IEC 60216, Guide far the determination of thermalendurancepropertiesaf electrical
ture, as model (40). insulating materials. Part 1:General guidelines for aging procedures and evaluation
of test results, 5 th issue, 2000.
3.7 NEW PERSPECTIVES [SI IEC60727-1, Evaluation of electrical endurance of electrical insulation systems,
1996.
Recent insight into the mechanisms of tree growth, as well as new 161 IEC 60505,Evaluation and qualification of electrical imulation systems.Part 1: Gen-
achievements on the theory of chaotic systems, allowed physical mod- eral; Part2: Thermal, Electrical, Environmental, Mechanical and Multi-Factor, 2000.
els to be investigated more in depth [97,133-135]. However, taking 171 V K. Agarwal. H.M. Banford, B. S. Bemstein, E. L. Biancato, R. A. Fouracre, G. C.
profit of the enormously increased computing facilities, the new ap- Montanari, I. L. Parpal, D. M. Ryder and I. Tmka, "The mysteries a1 multifactor
proaches are based on computer simulation, rather than on analytical agllg'', IEEE El. Ins.Mag., Vol. 11, No. 3, pp. 3743,Iune 1995.
models. Tree-growth models, still based on fractal features, have been 181 H. Frdich, Theory of dielectrics, Oxford Press, Oxford, U.K., 1949.
proposed where the random assumptions which affected at the begin- 191 S. Whitehead, Dielectric breakdown of solids, Clarendan Press, Oxford, 1951.
ning the physical validity of this kmd of approach are being substituted [IO] V. M. Montsinger, "Loading transformers by temperahre", AlEE Trans., Vol. 67, pp.
113-122.1944
by deterministic conditions [133-1351. Hence, simulating the growth of
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