Bullion News June 06, 2022

Gold futures inched down 0.08% and has been trading in a narrow range
between $1,828 and $1,864, for about a week, remaining around $1,850
overall.August Comex gold is trading down -0.24%. On Thursday, the
SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) settled at $174.35, up $2.12 or +1.23%.
Outlook
Gold
Prev
Yellow metal prices extended gains for third week in row with settling Commodities Close Chg (%)
Close
the week above 21-week EMA at 50970, slightly higher from previous
Gold 50970 50913 0.11%
week. Prices formed doji formation on weekly chart, indicating pause or
reversal in ongoing trend. Moreover, gold is forming falling wedge Silver 61669 62116 -0.72%
pattern on weekly chart, which strengthens the case for bullish scenario
ahead with expected upsurge toward 52000 and then 53200. The weekly MCXBULLDEX 14459.08 14504.08 -0.31%
RSI continued to hover above rising trend line support with forming
double bottom formation, while fast stochastic is likely to generate
crossover buy signal. Following the ongoing technical developments, we MCX Gold
can’t rule the expectations of correctional fall that should be containing
around 49700-49400, where fresh round of buying will emerge. On the
flip side, sellers could show interest in the precious metal if it manages to
move through 49300 – the vicinity 55-week EMA, and starts using that
level as resistance. We believe buy on decline will remain in favour for
this week. On Comex, prices are likely to trade in the range of $1767 to
$1910 with sideways to higher tendency.

Silver
White metal settled lower last week, snapping two-week gaining streak.
Prices declined by nearly 0.7% to end the week at 61669. Prices are
currently trading near lower range value of symmetrical triangle, which
strengthens the case for resumption of winning streak. The fast stochastic
has also generated crossover buy signal in oversold territory. With the
validation of 57600-support area, prices may approach towards 67500
and then 70000. We believe, any decline towards 60000-59800 will
provide opportunity to build fresh long positions. Conversely, sustainable
MCX Silver
fall below 58200-57600 with full conviction will confirm bearish move
for 51500. We expect buyers will remain dominant from lower levels. On
Comex, immediate support is seen around $20.50, while resistance is
seen around $25.50.
Technical Strategy
Commodity Trend
Gold Sideway Up
Silver Sideway Up

Technical levels for The Week

Commodity S2 S1 Close R1 R2
Gold 47300 49300 50970 52000 53200
Silver 51500 57600 61669 67500 70000
MCXBULLDEX 13700 14015 14459.08 14900 15500

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Base Metal News
China's army of metal processors and traders has flipped from buyers to
sellers amid a sharp downshift in economic activity in the world's top
manufacturer, heralding a potential warning sign for steel, aluminum and
other key industrial commodities.In response to the downbeat activity Prev Change
Commodities Close
Close (%)
across China, Goldman Sachs lowered its 2022 growth forecast to 4%, Copper 800 776.9 2.97%
compared with China's official target of around 5.5%.
Aluminium 232.85 241.55 -3.60%
Copper Lead 184.05 184.45 -0.22%
Red metal prices traded firm last week, extending gains for third Zinc 335.4 330.4 1.51%
consecutive week. Metal prices gained by around 3.0% to settle the week
above 21-week EMA at 800. Short-term momentum seems to have Nickel 2304 2124 8.47%
turned sideways up as fast stochastic has generated crossover buy signal. METLDEX 19943 19028 4.81%
Although, prices need to move above 814-816 to confirm bullish
scenario for 854 and then 886. Weekly RSI moved above 50-mark and MCX Copper
21-period EMA, which further strengthens the case for bullish move
ahead. We expect any correctional fall from present juncture should be
containing around 770, where fresh round of buying can be emerged.
However, decisive fall below 763 will take prices further lower towards
740-720. With a weekly close below that support zone, additional losses
toward 680 and 656 could be witnessed. On LME, prices are likely to
drift in the range of $9000 to $10300 with sideways to higher tendency.

Other Base Metals

Zinc prices continued to extend their ongoing bullish journey for third
straight week. Prices rose by nearly 1.5% to end the week at 335.40,
above 21-week EMA. Momentum is positive as the MACD line recently
generated a crossover sell signal. The short-term sentiments seems to
have turned sideways up as fast stochastic has generated crossover buy Technical Trend
signal, while weekly RSI has also moved above 50-mark, further
inducing bullish momentum. However, the MACD index still has Commodity Trend
negative crossover but trajectory of histogram has shifted to upward.
Prices are now likely to trade higher towards 355-360, the vicinity of Copper Sideways Up
61.8% retracement level of prior down move. Fresh buying can be Aluminium Sideways
initiated on correctional fall close to 315-310. Conversely, sustainable
Nickel Sideways
move below 301 will be seen as a completion of head and shoulder
pattern with expected downfall towards 270 Zinc Sideways Up
Lead Sideways

Levels
Metal prices swung between profit and declines before settling the week
almost unchanged at 184.05 below 21-week EMA. Prices are likely to
Commodity S2 S1 Close R1 R2
drift in broad horizontal band of 178 to 198 with sideways tendency.
Medium-term momentum has negative as the MACD index generated a Copper 720 763 800 816 854
crossover sell signal. The MACD histogram is printing in negative Aluminium 204 221 260 295
territory with a downward sloping trajectory, which points to lower 232.85
prices. Weekly RSI managed to drift below 21-period EMA and 50- Lead 160 178 184.05 192 198
mark. The fast stochastic, however, has generated crossover buy signal, Zinc 301 315 360 385
335.4
which could foreshadow correctional rise. We expect any correctional
rise towards 187-190 will attract fresh selling. In downside, 178 will act Nickel 1700 2100 2304 2560 2760
as an immediate support. Prices need to fall below the same support area METLDEX 17000 18900 19943 20890 22300
to confirm further sell-off towards 160 and then 150.

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 Energy News

Brent crude fell 0.4%, after rising $2 intra-day on Thursday. U.S. WTI Prev Chng
Commodities Close
Close (%)
crude slipped 0.3%.Although Brent was on track to fall for the week,
U.S. crude was heading for a sixth weekly gain on tight U.S. supply, Crude Oil 9235 8897 3.80%
which has prompted talk of fuel export curbs or a windfall tax on oil Natural Gas 667.2 670.5 -0.49%
and gas producers.U.S. crude stockpiles rose by 4.6 million barrels
last week, exceeding expectations, boosted by a rebound in output as
offshore facilities shut in by two U.S. Gulf hurricanes resumed
activity.
Crude Oil
Crude Oil
Crude oil prices extended their winning streak for six-consecutive
week, surging nearly 3.8% to settle the week at 9235. Medium-term
momentum has positive as the MACD index generated a crossover
buy signal. The MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with
an upward sloping trajectory. The fast stochastic has generated
crossover buy signal, while weekly RSI has crossed above 21-period
EMA. Prices had been trading in rising channel for last many weeks
that’s upper range value has been violated briefly last week, which
supports the scenario of continuation of bullish move. Following the
ongoing technical development and price pattern, prices are all set to
extend their ongoing winning streak for 9700 and then 9990, where
profit-booking decline could be triggered. Any decline towards 8300
will be seen as an opportunity to create fresh long positions. However,
sustainable move below 8000-7800 – the vicinity of 21-week EMA,
will shift near term bias sideways down with expected downfall
towards 7100 and below. On Nymex, prices have nearest resistance at
$130, while support is seen at $106.
Natural Gas
Natural Gas
Natural gas prices swung between profit and declines before settling
the week slightly lower, snapping two-week gaining streak. Initial
sentiments are still bullish as the MACD index has positive crossover
with MACD histogram is printing in positive territory with an upward
sloping trajectory, which points to higher prices. On the other side,
stochastic and RSI both are in overbought region, which could
foreshadow correctional fall. We expect any decline from the present
juncture should be containing around 590-600 where fresh round of
buying can be initiated. However, decisive fall below 580 will shift
near term sentiments sideways down with expected downfall towards
490. In upside, 735 will act as an immediate resistance, which if
broken decisively will set fresh upward momentum for 800.
Technical strategy

Commodity Trend
Crude Oil Sideways Up
Natural Gas Sideways Up

Pivot levels
Commodity S2 S1 Close R1 R2

Crude Oil 7800 8300 9235 9990 10500

Natural Gas 490 580 667.2 735 800

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 Most Important US Data For The Week
Date Currency Event Expectation Previous
8.6.22 USA Crude oil inventories -5.068M
9.6.22 USA Initial jobless claims 200K
9.6.22 USA Natural gas storage 90B
10.6.22 USA Core CPI (MoM) (May) 0.5% 0.6%

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Agriculture News

Cotton planting in India, the world's biggest producer of the fibre, could jump as much as 15% in 2022 to an all-time high,
as strong prices prompt farmers to switch away from other crops, an industry association said.Southwest Monsoon has
further advanced into some parts of northwest Bay of Bengal, some more parts of northeast and east central Bay of Bengal
and most parts of Mizoram, Manipur and Nagaland, the India Meteorological Department said.

Cotton Seed Ncdex:

Prices continued to drift in tight horizontal band with settling the week in red territory, declining around 2.08% to end the
week at 2821. Prices have been drifting in rising channel on weekly chart since long and currently residing near lower range
value, which strengthens the case for u-turn from present juncture. Weekly RSI is forming double bottom formation. The
MACD index is in negative but histogram trajectory started to slop upward. With the validation of 2750 support zone, prices
may trade higher towards 2950-3000, the vicinity of 21-week EMA, which if broken decisively will propel prices further
higher towards 3280. Conversely, sustainable fall below 2750 will be seen as a resumption of losing streak for 2400.

OUTLOOK: SIDEWAYS

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 Disclaimer

Recommendation Parameters for Fundamental/Technical Reports:

Buy – Absolute return of over +10%

Accumulate – Absolute return between 0% to +10%
Reduce – Absolute return between 0% to -10%
Sell – Absolute return below -10%

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