Testing of Hypothesis In order to arrive at a decision regarding the population through a samp population we have to make certain assumption referred to as hypothesis ii or may not be true. Much depends on the framing of hypothesis. the ich may The hypothesis formulated for the purpose of its rejection under the assumption that it is true is called the Null Hypothesis denoted by H,, Any hypothesis which is complimentary to the null hypothesis is called Alternative Hypothesis denoted by H.el Examples (1) To test whether a process B is better than a process A we can formulate the hypothesis as there is no difference between the process A and B. (2) To test whether there isa relationship between two variates we can formulate the hypothesis as there is no relationship between them. Ina test process there can be four possible situations of which two of the situations Jeads to the two types of errors and the same is presented. as follows Accepting the hypothesis Rejecting the hypothesis Hypothesis Correct decision Wrong decision true (Type Lerror) Hypothesis Wrong decision Correct decision false (ype I error) In order to minimize both these types of errors we need to increase the sample siz. It is further important to note that acceptance or non acceptance ofa hypothesis is purely based on the information revealed by the sample and what is indicated by a particular sample may not always be true in respect of the population, A region which amounts to the rejection of null hypothesis is called critical region or region of rejection. « 8. 2] Significance level The probability level, below which leads to the rejecion of the hypothesis is known as the significance level. This probability is conventionally fixed at 0.03 or 001 ie. 3. or Wo, These are called significance levels. We feel confident in rejecting a hypothesis at 1% level of significance than at 3° level Of significance. 5% level of significance can also be understood as, the prota committing errors of either types, (Type lor Type Ih is 0.05. [8:5] Tests of significance and Confidence intervals Theprocess which helps us to decideabout the accepta iscalled the test of significance or rejection ot theh pothesis Let us suppose that we have a normal popitlat sample mean of a random sample of sit with mean land So IT is the fn the quantity > dletined by wo (oA) ‘scalled the Standard Normal Variate (5.N.V)el From the table of normal areas we find that 95% of the area lies between z = ~ 1.96 and 2 = +1.96. In other words we can say with 95% confidence that z liesbetween ~ 1.96and + 1.96, Further 5% level of significance is denoted by 2g 95. Thus we can write the verbal statement in the mathematical form, Faw -196 s 9S Ain § 196 7 — spo w> LaryTests of significance for large samples Test of significance of proportions In the discussion of probability distributions we have remarked that the normal distribution is the limiting form of the binomial distribution when nis large and neither pnor gis small. Let us suppose that we take N samples, each having n members. Let p be the probability of success of each member and q of failure so that p+q = 1.The frequencies of samples with successes 0, 1, 2,... 1 are the terms of the binomial expansion of N (q +p)". Thus the binomial distribution is regarded as the sampling distribution of the number of successes in the sample. We know that the mean of this distribution is np and $.D is Vnpq. Let us consider the proportion of successes.=e qa) mean proportion of successes = > = P. (2) S.DorS.E proportion of successes = ae = \pq/n Let x be the observed number of successes in a sample size of n and qt = np be the expected number of successes. Let the associated standard normal variate Z be defined by HW x—np o ~ Vnpq If | Z| > 2.58 we conclude that the difference is highly significant and reject the hypothesis. Since p is the probability of success and vpq/n is the S.E proportion of successes, p + 2.58 \pq/n are the probable limits.Test of significance of a sample mean 21. A manufacturer claimed tht alenst 95% of he exipment whl he supplied ta factory conformed to specifications . An examination of a sample of 200 pieces of equipment revealed that 18 of them were faulty. Test his claim ata significance level of Meand ''h, >>. Letp be the probability of success which being the probability of the equip supplied to the factory conformal to the specifications, by data p = 0.95 and hence q = 0.05 Hg: p = 0.95and the claimis correct. 1H, :p-<095 and the claim is false We choose the one tailed test to determine whether the supply is conformal to the specification. H = np =2000.95 = 190 o = Vipq = \200%0.95 0.05 = 3.082 Expected number of equipments according to the specification = 190 = Mea" Actual number = 182 since 18 out of 200 were faulty 5 [200 - 18 diference= 190-189, = 8 tg (7-4) =o 8 4° Now Z= vn, = 3082 = 26 ‘The value of Z is greater than the critical value 1.645 at 5% level and 2.33.4 significance. The claim of the manufacturer (ull hypothesis that the clatm 1s csrr0.2 1s rejected at 5% as well as at 1% level of significance in accordence with the tailed test. : fone joded WX) 7 2a PEoor 2 1bAS (one Invited [7 Go = 233 [> ~y )a 1 has been found from experience Of tinea 5275.6 pm ce ett the men breaking strength of prtclar brand significance level of (a) 0.05 (b) 0.01 that the thread has become inferior? >> We have to decide between the two hypothess Hy ‘= 2756gms,meanbreakingstength © 23r 7g H, + W < 275.6gms inferiorinbreakingstrength, We choose the one tailed test. Mean breaking strength of a sample of 36 pieces =253.2 @- ») difference= 275.6 ~ 253.2 ‘The value of level of significance. Under the hypothesis H, that the thread has become inferior is accepted at both 0.05 and 0.01 levels in accordence with one tailed test Innan examination given to students ata large numberof different schools the mean grade twas 74.5 and S.D grade was 8. At one particular school where 200 students took the examination the mean grade was 75.9. Discuss the significance of this result from the view point of (a) one tailed test (b) tao tailed test at both 5% and 1% level of significa >> Hy + = 74Sand there iso change in the mean grade. Hy sw # 745ie," > 74S and < 745. [t= 74.5 and mean of a sample of size 200 (1) 8759 14 difference = 759-745 difference 14 - difeence 1 27s a (o/Vn) 8/V200 We have the table for the critical values of Z in the ease of one and two tailead tests. | Test | a ‘oo Towns f tts ax Two tailed +196The calculated value of Z is more than Zy 95, Zoo, in one tailed test as well as Z,, 5 in two tailed test. Thus we conclude that the difference in the mean grade is significant in these tests but the same is not significant in the two tailed test at 1% level of significance.