Convergence Devices: Mid-term Report

Submitted by: Group Number: 10 Aniket Ghosh 1011082 Harsh Singh 1011097 Mohit Arora - 1011112 Sai Prasad Viswanathan 1011127 Varun Bahri 1011142 On: 21st October, 2010

Convergence
Convergence is defined as an approach towards a definite point or opinion. At almost all times this point is illusory, dynamic and ill defined. However, this point has a unique property the property of equilibrium. Once the equilibrium state has been attained the convergence is complete. The innovation status before such a point is reached is called the disruptive state. There is no fixed pattern to it and the jumps between various stages are ill defined. Stages are skipped by various disruptions. However, beyond the convergence state there would be only incremental innovations. It has typically been seen that the first person towards this culmination point loses advantage significantly because of costs and efforts required to educate the customer. The ultimate goal of convergence is to deliver seamless [customer] experience across multiple locations, multiple devices, and multiple types of use.We will discuss convergence later with the example of entertainment industry to better understand how the whole scenario is going to pan out. We will also present some finding from research forecasts on the impacts of convergence on society and what social, cultural, political and economic influences will shape its final form. Physical-Digital Convergence

Physical World

Digital World

Over the last decade, the boundary of separation between the physical world and the digital world has blurred. Every domain, right from social networking to communication has slowly moved out of the physical domain and transferred on to the digital and the cyber domains. This trend will necessitate the need for more sophisticated devices and would eventually lead to an increased presence of Convergence Devices. Convergence devices would serve the purpose of bridging this gap. Convergence in the Entertainment domain: an Example Let us take an example of the entertainment domain and how it has been moving towards convergence. This obviously forms a branch in the convergence tree of the convergence device we are aiming to hypothesize but this would help us explain market and industry trends around the convergence phenomenon. Entertainment in the physical world (was) is characterized by theatrical plays and live concerts. The rich colors and the live entertainment that one gets to experience were considered irreplaceable. As digital media and entertainment systems progressed from the days of the radio and television to CDS and blueray discs, a large majority of the population started enjoying most of the programs and live feeds from the comfort of their own homes. With the advent of the home theater, digital entertainment took a quantum leap towards enhancing home entertainment and now, with the introduction of 3 D television 1|P ag e

and 3 D home theaters, the divide between the digital and the physical realms has been further narrowed.
concerts

mehfil streaming Live Theatre Physical Entertainment

Nautankis 3D Television Radio, TV LPs gramaphone streaming Blue ray DVD CD cassette erasable memory

Digital Entertainment

Future of Convergence: How we think it will pan out We propose the hypothesis that convergence in the future will not be device convergence only. Convergence would have various aspects to it. Convergence would entail the following:

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Let us evaluate these one by one. Device Convergence: Let us look at the example of smart-phones. The first smart-phone tried to bring about features that were required by users using multiple devices in a single phone. The first smart-phone was launched in 2001- the Ericsson R380. Previously people had been using electronic diaries and phones separately. This device tried to bring the two together. The recent trend has been to try bringing phones and computers together. The iphone and the Google Nexus One are prime examples. These devices tend to create ecosystems around them. But once we have many convergence devices we need them to plug together the need of the hour is application convergence. We have been witnessing device convergence in smart-phones from 2001. Applications convergence: Let us look at an example. All the big brokerage houses in the world are trying to shift their trading platforms to mobiles. They have realized that the distribution channels have to change in the business has to change in order to drive volumes. But there is a big problem. Blackberry phones run on blackberry OS. HTC phones run on windows 7 and android. Nokia phones run on Symbian. Iphone runs on iphone OS and Samsung, well the least said the better. Now one particular brokerage firm had invested over 5 million dollars in coming up with a common trading platform that runs on all Operating Systems. However, they did not meet with much success. Two years and there were no visible results to be seen. Then, there came along a company in Chennai which has a unified access platform for all operating systems. The company operating on the platform as a service business model has mobilized the top 5 brokerages in the US. The first step in convergence will be applications convergence which we have been seeing for the past 4 years. Network Convergence How many networks do we deal with in our daily life? Internet, telecom, social, business. All networks have been trying to converge. The physical social network has translated to facebook. The physical business networks have translated to linkedin. The telecom networks are the only sore point as far as final convergence to internet is concerned. But Google has different plans. Certain important trends: y y Google acquired Admobs for a highly inflated price of $700 million undercutting Apple in the process Admobs is a mobile adverstisement platforme Google acquired Gizmo5 and extended it into what is today Google voice, which is the concept of a free online telecom network with a single no. for ever user (mobile business all phones are routed to this number) Google is actively trying to buy 3G frequency in various parts of the world including India Google launched the Nexus one early this is year which was pitched as the web phone and Google has made Google voice free on the android platform

y y

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What is Google s plan? Google wants to kill telecom. It wants one free network the Internet. Why? More the people that come onto that platform, the more searches happen and it makes more money. Life Style Convergence: Ultimately all convergence is about lifestyle convergence-all lifestyles converging into one. Business and family and entertainment and fun all wrapped up into one. This is what will be the ultimate culmination point according to us. The physical and digital worlds will unite. How that shall happen is what we need to look into. The first level of interaction for human beings was in the physical realm. The digital world had its origins in analog devices (analog clocks and vacuum tubes) which slowly transformed mainly due to the improvements in integrated chip technology. The last ten years have seen the rapid emergence of devices that have brought the physical and the digital worlds much closer to each other. Everything right from entertainment to communication has transcended the digital barrier and integrated seamlessly, to give users the ultimate experience. From the current trends and the technology enhancements that we have witnessed, convergence is a reality and is going to be one of the biggest drivers of technology to break new ground. Market Outlook: Non-technology perspective It is essential to realize that envisioning convergence devices from a strictly technological point of view will not give a complete picture of realistic possibilities. Some basic principles that will help us understand the realistic feasibility of convergence arei,ii: 1. More mature the underlying technology, the more convergence is favored. 2. Wider the disparity among the converging functionalities, less the likelihood that convergence wins. 3. Greater the value of converged scenarios , more the likelihood that convergence wins. 4. More the cost of a dedicated device, the more the likelihood that convergence wins 5. Stronger the externalities of dedicated devices, the lesser the likelihood that convergence wins 6. Convergence will affect not just telecommunications and broadcasting. The scope of convergence is the entire knowledge and transaction-intensive services sector. 7. Convergence is structural in nature, and changes to industry structure are the most profound changes associated with it.

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8. Convergence is enabled by technological change, but is not driven by it. The drivers of convergence are mainly commercial. 9. As sectors merge and the benefits of convergence transcend national boundaries, regulation and policy convergence at various levels will be a major enabler and controller in technology convergence. What stopped convergence earlier and what wont now?iii Consumers are demanding more immediacy and convenience and the most attractive services. The commercial need will stimulate the growth of convergence. But if there is anything that can hold back convergence it is infrastructure to keep pace with the pace of convergence. Infrastructure has always been a bottleneck when it comes to the pace of innovation. However, a big piece in the puzzle has come forward and promises to solve the infrastructure problem. Cloud computing is Internet-based computing, whereby shared resources, software, and information are provided to computers and other devices on demand, like the electricity gridiv.

Cloud platform services or "Platform as a Service (PaaS)" deliver a computing platform and/or solution stack as a service, often consuming cloud infrastructure and sustaining cloud applications. It facilitates deployment of applications without the cost and complexity of buying and managing the underlying hardware and software layers. Convergence Map: Going by the current trends and recent developments that we have seen in the information and communication markets, we perceive that the future will be dominated by digital products which are based on audio-visual and perceptual means of operation. The smart phones and the recent advancements in laptops and other information devices will occupy a large portion of the market. These devices are already making their presence felt in the market and the integration of one or more of these devices is a necessity and will eventually drive the need for the so called convergence devices. Let us take a look at the various devices that we think might be the product that meets these requirements and chart out a convergence road map.

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Convergence Devices

Vision

Perception

Information and Communication Devices

Other Devices

The Brain Chip

Smartphones

Smart-tops

i-watches

i-goggles

Foldable/ Rolling

The Chameleon phone

Surface Computing Rolling Laptops Sixth Sense

I-Goggles Goggles today are an excellent style icon. But going ahead, do these small screens covering our eyes have the potential to redefine style with technology. Can they be representative of the future convergence? Well the answer is affirmative and it s reflected through following potentials y y y y The device glasses can be used as screens for internet surfing to facilitate instant navigation etc. It can be used as an entertainment device with attached earphones It can be used as spy-cam concealing a video camera with suitable memory storage capabilities. They can be used as an aid for memory recall wherein it can remember where people last saw their keys, cell phones, wallets, etc.

I-Watches- Watches that come with inbuilt memory, tachometers, projectors, electronic diaries, navigation facilities, audio-visual players, communication devices, digital image recorders and trackers. Watches could become empowered with robust processors that could be coupled with holographic input devices. Smartphones/Chameleon phones Phones can be as simple as a basic set that we are using currently with unique and affordable multifunctional jackets that can be used alternatively to provide multiple functionalities and enhanced feature like holographic keyboards, projection screens, advanced application software like Adobe Photoshop, digital picture frames, personal music players, digital image

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recorders, etc. We already have a product with similar features in some markets manufactured by Modu, Israel.

(Source: http://canesta.com) Surface computing is replacing input devices and has made the experience of computing more user friendly and more space economic. It gives the users simplicity, convenience and flexibility and simultaneously lets them experience virtual reality. Foldable Laptops and Phones: With the latest advancements in technology, it is possible to create integrated circuits on thin, laminas which are foldable and this will lead to laptops and phones being extremely compact and foldable in nature.

(Source: http://www.tuvie.com/packet-foldable-concept-mobile-phone/) Sixth Sensev: This is a revolutionary technology that supports both multi-touch and multi-user interaction. The gadget comprises of a micro projector, a reflecting mirror and a pendant like wearable camera, connected to a mobile computing device. The projector projects the screen on almost any interface like walls, tables, etc while the camera captures the hand movement of the user and translates them into cursory movements, thereby bridging the gap between physical and the virtual world.

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(Source: http://www.scribd.com/doc/28704893/Sixth-Sense-FINAL-Ppt) The Brain Chip: So far, we have only witnessed electronic gadgets that incorporate some functionality that bridge the physical-digital gap. However, the ultimate convergence device would be a brain chip which when integrated into a human s sensory and perception system will enable a human being to perform activities as just an extension of the daily routines and tasks. Microsoft: Current and Future Microsoft has been the pioneer in delivering quality software to its consumers. Microsoft has traditionally been regarded as a quick follower, i.e., it doesn't innovate frequently but is quick to copy and implement any technological innovation in the market. But in our research we've found that recently this trend has been changing with Microsoft launching many next-generation products which are aimed at tomorrow. Here we discuss the three most prominent of these innovations that the company has come up with in last couple of years which can shape the future of Convergent Devices: Microsoft Surface: Surface is a multi-touch interface developed by Microsoft. It consists of a large surface , typically a glass-based interface such as a wall or table-top which identifies hand gestures from multiple users and even product recognition. It has been implemented successfully in various industries across a breadth of applications such as restaurants, where customers can go through the entire menu on their table top as they search various facts about different meals or can get their wine identified just by placing it on the surface; in classrooms, where they will replace blackboards as an interactive medium to explain complex subject matter; and in offices where they form an attractive and efficient tool for multiple people to work, discuss, and edit simultaneously on a project.

Surface used in an office setting (Source: Microsoft Promotional Picture)

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Windows Phone 7: Windows Phone 7 is Microsoft's answer to Apple's iOS and Google's Android Mobile Operating System. Launched just last week, Windows Phone 7 is smartphone OS succeeding the ageing Windows Mobile Platform. Though it has come late in market, it is already fiercely competed by Apple and Google; it tries to distinguish itself by efficiently integrating two of Microsoft's core brands: Office and Xbox. Windows Phone 7 delivers complete compatibility with Office products allowing editing and storing the documents on PC and phone simultaneously using Cloud computing, thus making it an attractive product for Enterprise customers. Similarly, a deep integration with Xbox Live, Microsoft's industry leading premium online gaming service, is aimed at niche video gamers market. Apart from that, Windows Phone 7 uses Zune service, Microsoft's critically acclaimed music service, to enhance the user's experience. According to our analysis, there are a couple of interesting points associated with launch of Windows Phone 7. First, in our opinion, development of Windows Phone 7 is the first step taken by Microsoft in developing a true convergent device. It delivers the features of Microsoft's best products across breadth of market; be it Enterprise oriented Office, or Gaming oriented Xbox Live, or Music oriented Zune; into a single package for the end-consumer. The ubiquity of these products gives the consumers a choice to really replace their desktops given appropriate hardware is developed for this. Besides that, the use of Cloud Computing allows users to seamlessly transfer their works across platforms such as Phone, PC, or Xbox, making the experience truly converged. But as we mentioned earlier, this is only the first step and its success or failure would be defined by the hardware developed for this as well as Microsoft's commitment in providing customer support for the platform. Secondly, in our opinion, development of Windows Phone 7 is an interesting study as it signifies the transition from company's traditional focus on resisting innovation and being just famous for notorious updates to understanding consumer requirements and redesigning a mobile platform from scratch. This signifies a major change in company's outlook and it positions itself as a future oriented company.

An early launch model of Windows Phone 7 showing Custom UI (Source: Engadget) Project Natal/ Kinect: If Windows Phone 7 showed Microsoft's commitment to innovation, Kinect, also known as Project Natal in its early stages, shows its vision for future. Competing in a heavily competitive segment of motion 9|P ag e

control gaming where competitors are fighting over accuracy of their motion controller peripherals, Microsoft created a storm last year when it announced the launch of Kinect, which doesn't require any sort of peripherals, and rather relies on your gestures and body movements. In principle, Kinect operates as highly efficient camera sensor with advance depth and motion tracking technology. With its state of the art technology, Kinect is able to map player's motions in real time accuracy on the screen. So, for example, if the player instinctively ducks to avoid a bullet while playing a shooting game, his or her virtual avatar follows the suit. Apart from that, Kinect has advance voice and gesture recognition systems which allow for browsing through menus of Xbox a breeze by using hand and voice gestures: a feat only seen as a part of Science Fiction till now. According to our analysis, gesture sensing technology behind Kinect would be one of the major parts of tomorrow's convergent device, like discussed in the case of Sixth Sense. Like Sixth Sense, Kinect is an advance human interface platform which relies on inputs on various dimensions, such as: threedimensional gesture sensor, and voice sensor. Further development of this technology would be one of the paths taken by Microsoft's towards the Convergence.

A shot of Kinect showing Gesture Control in action (Source: Microsoft)

References:
i

http://mohansawhney.com/2010/01/29/do-dedicated-devices-die-principles-of-convergence/

ii

http://www.dbsa.org/Research/Documents/Digital%20convergence%20and%20its%20economic%20im plications.pdf
iii

http://nuevosmedios.files.wordpress.com/2008/03/rep-capitalising-on-convergence-intellect-2006.pdf http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cloud_computing http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/SixthSense

iv v

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