Running head: MANAGING PROJECT UNCERTAINTY 1

Paper four

MANAGING UNCERTAINTY BY PROBLEM SOLVING

AND BECAMING KNOWLEDGE CENTRIC
OGL 321: Project Leadership, Strategy, and Scope
Written by Glory Tshokama
Arizona State University
04. 15.2021
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Managing Uncertainty by Problem Solving and Becoming Knowledge Centric

How did these resources enhance your knowledge of project management?

Explain & Elaborate.

Chapter three expanded my knowledge in the area of problem-solving and

uncertainty management. In chapter three titled, "Problem Solving Strategies for

Managing Uncertainty." I learn the different techniques and strategies to problem solve

during adverse challenges and uncertainty. I understand the value of thinking differently,

which reminds me of one of my favorite quotes by Albert Einstein when he said and quote,

"It is not possible to solve a problem using the same thinking that created it." This lesson

reminded me that I must think outside the box to generate some new thinking that is

different from the previous thoughts whenever I face difficulties. A new way of thinking is

one efficient strategy for problem-solving.

Chapter three expanded my knowledge in the mental model area, for example,

confrontation modes, which taught me the different ways to confront uncertainty problems

that arise in achieving goals. Here are four models and tools that I learn and that I attend

to use in the future to problem solve: Suppress, Adapt, Detour, and Reorient. These

strategies will enable me to do pre-emptive steps to reduce uncertainty, do adaptive

planning, replicate, and solve insurmountable uncertainty. I learn that there is more than

one way to deal with uncertainty as they arise. This lesson gave me the confidence to
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utilize this knowledge and concentrate on delivering results even when faced with

difficulties. I learn that exposing the underlying problems caused by uncertainty is an

effective strategy to manage and strategically solve problems. (Cleden, 2016).

David Cleden said something interesting in the text that captivated my attention,

and I quote, ". An adaption strategy means using problem-solving skills to deal with

unexpected events as they occur, and reorientation is a special case where the problems

are severe enough to consider redefining the goals. In all of these situations, problem-

solving is a vital tool." The quote reminded me of the video that I watched about a high-

performance driver at the beginning of this class. The takeaway is that the setbacks during

a project aren't as significant as delivering the overall project. I learn that even high

performers face difficulties, but it is their mindset of never giving up and working extra

hours to get things done that matter. I believe that the knowledge shared in this chapter

will enable me to strengthen my problem-solving skills.

I am thankful that I also learn how to get to the root of the uncertainty, recognize

faulty pattern recognition, and resolve symptomatic and root problems. Learning the value

of analyzing the problem from the root while collecting the problem's symptoms,

diagnosing the underlying causes, deriving the root problems, and then validating the root

problem against the observation taught me a new process to root cause analysis.

(Cleden,2016).
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In chapter four titled, "knowledge Centric Strategies." I learn how to use knowledge

to visualize the future. Isaac Asimov's quote well explains this concept at the beginning

of the chapter, and I quote, "No sensible decision can be made any longer without taking

into account not only the world as it is, but the world as it will be." I learn the importance

of knowing how to manage uncertainty by modeling possible events during the

management of a project.

Chapter four introduced the forecasting model, which is determined by two project

knowledge, according to David Cleden, Drivers and Relationships. This concept can be

simply understood as variable and their relationship with one another. I also learned the

importance of mapping what I know and what I don't know.

I love how D. Cleden explains this concept in the book, and I quote, "This is

essentially the case of unfathomable uncertainty, where we don't know what it is that we

don't know. However, looking at the boundary of what is known can be quite informative."

And he continues by stating, "Organizing knowledge (that is, those things that we do know

about the project) into some kind of structure, will often reveal gaps in our knowledge.

Once these gaps are revealed, we have learnt something about the uncertainties. This is

the first step towards converting unknown unknowns into known unknowns where risk

management can take over." I agree with David on the importance of mapping our

knowledge area and what we don't know. We become aware of the things that we don't

know, therefore moving the unknown unknowns to known unknowns.

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This week I read three blogs, but two captivated my attention: Managing Stress In

Project Management Written by One Jing Teak, and What Are Some Good Risk

Management Techniques written by Doug Uptmor. In the managing stress blog, I learned

the causes of stress in project management, which One Jing Teak shared, and I quote:

"Unrealistic timeline, Working in a matrix system which PM does not have the full control

of the resources, Lack of resources – human and/or equipment, Proliferation of virtual

teams and cross cultural influences, Inter-group conflict in organization, Project

environment" (Teak, 2015). The takeaway in this blog is to pay attention to work-life

balance. I am glad to learn these lessons here again.

How well do you agree with all of their assertions? Please give examples of

your workplace or other areas.

Yes, I agree with all assertions made by the author, David Cleden, in chapter three

and chapter four of the book called "Managing Project Uncertainty." One of the assertions

that I agree with him is on the importance of mapping knowledge area. Knowing what we

know and what we don't know is of tremendous significance for solving a team problem.

This knowledge will facilitate the decision-making process on the key area of a project.

For example, if I know that my team is composed of Engineers, marketers, account

managers, and developers. When a marketing opportunity arises, I know who is in the

best position to make marketing decisions based on knowledge, experiences, and

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practical knowledge. In this case, it would be unreasonable to trust an engineer with

marketing tactics and technical implementation pieces of advice. The importance of

knowing each person's area of expertise becomes crucial when it comes to solving

uncertainty.

Yes, I also agree with all the assertion made in the blogs that read this week. Here

is the list of blogs that I read this week: Managing Stress In Project Management Written

by One Jing Teak, What Are Some Good Risk Management Techniques? Written by

Doug Uptmor, and 4 Key Software Features for Smarter Construction Inventory

Management written by Robert Hoyt. One particular blog that I agree with Risk

management techniques shared by Doug Uptmor. I like when he wrote, and I quote,

"The objective of risk management is to ensure uncertainty never deflects the endeavor

from the established business goals. It is a process that includes the identification,

assessment, and prioritization of risk to control the probability of impact." This simple

explanation of what risk management is captivates the wisdom and role of risk

management. I found these lessons quite important, especially that I have been traveling

across the world without the internet. I wonder how I could have mitigated this risk without

relying on the airline's promises of WIFI.

Citing specific examples from Simulation earlier in this module, discuss any

connections you may find that can be drawn.

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One specific example that I can cite from the Simulation is the uncertainty of how

the team performance will go when the budget is insufficient. I remember how this

uncertainty is attached to each decision in the Simulation. Not knowing exactly the best

combination of management practices to get to the Simulation's ideal results is quite

challenging. It can sometimes feel as if one is in the game of trying to figure out the right

combination to get to an ideal utopia. I hope that the Simulation's author would have

written some guidelines and share best practices to get to the desired results.

The connection that can be drawn between the Simulation and chapters three and

four of David Cleden's book is the ability to build mental models to problem solve. I believe

this might be why the Harvard simulation authors didn't hand out any guidelines that will

help students get to their desired results. This decision alone is at the core of learning

from experiences and figuring things out, knowing which management practices work and

which one doesn't work under different circumstances. I found the connection between

these two chapters and Simulation quite remarkable—what a learning curve.

Discuss any personal experiences that relate to the reading or blog entries from

your past and/or how these takeaways may be related to future plans or goals.

These takeaways will enable me to lead with certainty as I move forward in my

career and my life with confidence and knowledge. I plan to utilize these takeaways to

become agile in my decision-making processes and problem-solve with agility. I intended

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to practice every lesson that I learned from this chapter in my business and organization.

At every place where I am called to lead, I will serve with dedication while being

knowledge-centric when faced with adversity and use problem-solving strategies to

resolve any form of difficulties or uncertainty. I am confident that the lessons that I learned

from this class will take me further in the right direction toward the fulfillment of humanity's

most daring goals. I am excited about the future.

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References

Cleden, D. (2021). Managing Project Uncertainty by David Cleden (2009–04-28).

Gower.

Cleden, D. (Ed.). (2021b). Problem Solving Strategies for Managing Uncertainty.

In Managing Project Uncertainty (pp. 37–55). Gower.

Cleden, D. (Ed.). (2021a). Knowledge-Centric Strategies. In Managing Project

Uncertainty by David Cleden (2009–04-28) (pp. 58–69). Gower.


Teak, O. J. (2015, March 18). Managing Stress in Project Management. Project Times.

https://www.projecttimes.com/articles/managing-stress-in-project-

management.html


Uptmor, D. (2018, March 16). What Are Some Good Risk Management Techniques? |

dedicated to Project Controls. Www.Projecttimes.Com.

http://www.planningplanet.com/blog/what-are-some-good-risk-management-

techniques

Hoyt, R. (2017, May 1). 4 Key Software Features for Smarter Construction Inventory

Management. Capterra. https://blog.capterra.com/4-key-software-features-for-

smarter-construction-inventory-management/