The Economic Impact of BRI

1) Global income increases by 0.7 percent (in 2030 relative to

the baseline). This translates to almost 930 billion dollars
in 2014 prices and market exchange rates. The BRI area
sees an overall gain of $73 billion.

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)

2) The BRI area captures 70% of the gain, with China

garnering around 20% of the total global gain. In
percentage terms, the largest return accrues to Pakistan
with an increase of 10.5% in overall real income and
Kyrgyz Republic with 10.4%. East Asian economies also
seeing sizable gains: Thailand (8.2%), Malaysia (7.7%) and
Cambodia (5%).

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)

3) The non-BRI area sees some gains with an increase of

0.3%, most of which is captured by Ethiopia, Europe and
Rest of High-Income countries.

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)

4) The volume of global exports increases by 1.7% (in 2030

relative to the baseline), translating to an increase of some
$565 billion (in 2014).
 (source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental
Impacts)

5) Most of the increase in exports occurs in the BRI area

($438 billion), which witnesses an increase in exports of
some 2.8 percent. The largest increases in exports in
percentage terms include Thailand (14.9%), Malaysia
(12.4%), and Pakistan (9.8%). The non-BRI area shows a
small increase in terms of exports (0.7%): the highest
percentage growth in exports in the non-BRI area is
Ethiopia (3.9%).

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)

6) At the global level, import growth is 3.4% (in 2030 relative

to the baseline), evaluating to over $1,153 billion (in 2014
prices): Thailand (21.4%), Malaysia (18.5%) and Kyrgyz
Republic (17.5%) witness the highest import growth.

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)

7) The BRI could reduce the percentage of people living in

extreme poverty, with less than PPP US$1.90 a day. Under
baseline conditions, it is expected that global extreme
poverty will fall from 9.5% in 2015 to 3.9% by 2030 (CGE
model). At the global level, BRI-related investments could
lift 7.6 million from extreme poverty: 4.3 million in BRI
corridor economies and 3.3 million in non-BRI countries.
 (source__Belt and Road Economies: Opportunities and
Risks of Transport Corridors)

8) BRI-related investments could additionally lift up to 32

million people from moderate poverty, with less than PPP
US$3.20 a day, with 26.7 million from corridor economies
and 5.3 million from non-BRI countries. The global
percentage of people below the moderate poverty line
was estimated at 25.8% in 2015 and is projected to decline
to 10.4% by 2030 under business-as-usual conditions.

(source__Belt and Road Economies: Opportunities and

Risks of Transport Corridors)

9) In Kenya and Tanzania, an additional 700,000 poor people

would be expected to be lifted from extreme poverty by
2030. This is approximately equivalent to an additional
1.0% and 0.9% point reduction in the extreme poverty
headcount. In South Asia, Pakistan would see additional
reductions in extreme poverty for 1.1 million people;
Bangladesh is expected to see 200,000 people lifted out of
extreme poverty (0.11% of headcount).

(source__Belt and Road Economies: Opportunities and

Risks of Transport Corridors)

10) For the BRI area in aggregate, the return to labor has
a higher increase than the return to capital (including land
and natural resources), 1.37% versus 0.87%. Unskilled
workers would see a gain (1.36%) and skilled workers a
slightly higher gain (1.38%).
 (source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental
Impacts)

11) BRI projects are expected to increase world GDP by

2.9% -- the increase for non-BRI economies at 2.6% and for
corridor economies at 3.4%.

(source__Belt and Road Economies: Opportunities and

Risks of Transport Corridors)

12) With moderate assumptions on BRI investment, the

simulation results indicate a global welfare gain of 1.3% of
global GDP by 2030 with a boost to global trade by 5%.

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)

13) Maryla Maliszewka and Dominique van der

Mensbrugghe estimate that BRI GDP growth rates could
increase by 0.1-0.7 percentage points, while total exports
of BRI countries could increase by between $5 billion and
$135 billion depending on the assumpions on trade costs
reductions.

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)

14) Pakistan presents the highest welfare gain of the

countries involved in the initiative, with a gain of 10.5% by
2030 (relative to the baseline), and an 8.6% share of the
total gain of the BRI area.

(source__the BRI: Economic, Poverty, and Environmental

Impacts)