Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA): A Tool

for Incorporating Professional Judgment

and Modeling into Exposure Control
Banding

Paul Hewett Ph.D. CIH

Exposure Assessment Solutions, Inc.

Copyright 2006 Exposure

Assessment Solutions, Inc. 1
Abstract
Bayesian statistical methods have recently been applied to industrial
hygiene decision making. This technique, called Bayesian Decision
Analysis (BDA), provides a mechanism for explicitly incorporating
professional judgment into the statistical analysis and interpretation of
occupational exposure data. The analysis goal is to determine with
high accuracy whether the SEG exposure profile can be classified as a
Control Band Category 0, 1, 2, 3, or 4 exposure (using the AIHA
exposure categories). The output of BDA is a set of three "decision
charts": one summarizing professional judgment, the second
representing the analysis of the exposure data, and the third
representing a combination of professional judgment and data analysis.
Each chart depicts the probability that the true exposure profile is in
each of the five exposure control band categories. BDA automatically
provides feedback regarding the accuracy of the professional
judgment: if the professional judgment-based decision chart and the
data-based decision charts are substantially different then it is likely
that the basis for the professional judgment was faulty.

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Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA): A Tool for
Incorporating Professional Judgment and Modeling into
Exposure Control Banding

I. Scenario
II. AIHA & UK/ILO Control Banding Models
III. Intro to Bayesian Decision Analysis
IV. Incorporating Professional Judgment
V. Incorporating Exposure Modeling
VI. Feedback

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I. Scenario
Dimethyl Death
„ OEL (TLV) = 1 ppm
„ R-phrases: R48/20 Æ Hazard Band C
Two Similar Exposure Groups:
„ SEG1
„ SEG2

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Assume the following for the SEG1:
„ <100 ml are used per batch
„ the liquid has a medium vaporization
potential
„ the task is performed inside a ventilated
enclosure

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Assume the following for the SEG2:
„ >900 ml but less than 1 L quantities are
used per batch
„ the liquid has a medium vaporization
potential
„ the task is performed inside a ventilated
enclosure

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Example (Traditional) IH Survey
During a baseline exposure assessment for
SEG1, an IH collected the following full-shift
measurements from an SEG:
„ x = {0.20, 0.05, 0.10} ppm
„ n=3
„ gm = 0.1 ppm 90%CI( 0.03, 0.32 )
„ gsd = 2.0 90%CI( 1.5, 21 )
The sample 95th percentile was 0.31 ppm
but with a 95%UCL of 20 ppm

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The point estimate of the 95th percentile is <
50% of the limit.
Exposures appear to be a Category 2
exposure.
However, the 95%UCL(X0.95) is considerably
greater than the OEL.
What would you do?
„ Make a decision ?
„ Collect more data ?

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Our IH concludes:
„ This SEG (operation) is well-controlled (i.e.,
Category 2) with just the existing dilution
ventilation.
„ Although the 95%UCLs were excessive, our IH
took into account his extensive past experience
with this type of operation.
His recommendations:
„ Further sampling is not necessary.
„ Routine surveillance samples should be collected
using the established schedule for well-controlled
operations
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Questions
Is the SEG in compliance?
„ What is the definition of “compliance”?
Š All measurements < OEL
Š True 95th percentile < OEL
„ Can the confidence level for a decision composed
of Data Analysis + Professional Judgment be
quantified?
Is there a way to combine Professional
Judgment and Data Analysis into an objective
and transparent Decision Making Process?

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II. AIHA and UK/ILO Control Banding
Models

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The AIHA Model uses “Exposure Control
Banding”
AIHA Exposure Control Ratings for TWA OELs
„ Which control zone is appropriate?
Exposure Control
Ratings * Cutoff (%OEL) Confidence level

0 X0.95 < 1%
High
1 1% > X0.95 < 10%
2 10% > X0.95 < 50% Medium
3 50% > X0.95 < 100%
4 X0.95 > 100% Low

* Adapted from Tables 5.2 and 6.2; rating 0 taken from 1991 version
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Example Control Category Follow-up
(Exposure Control Banding)
Exposure Control Recommended Control
Category**
0 (<1% of OEL) No action

1 (<10% of OEL) general HazCom

2 (10-50% of OEL) + chemical specific HazCom
3 (50-100% of OEL) + exposure surveillance, medical surveillance, work
practices
4 (>100% of OEL) + respirators & engineering controls, work practice
controls
5 (Multiples of OEL; + immediate engineering controls or process
e.g., based on shutdown, validate respirator selection
respirator APFs)

** - Decision statistic = 95th percentile

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SEG1
gm = 0.1 ppm 90%CI( 0.03, 0.32 )
gsd = 2.0 90%CI( 1.5, 21 )

5
4

3
GSD

2
0 1 2 3 4

1
0.001 0.01 0.1 1
GM
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UK and ILO “Control Banding”:
Hazard group vs. target exposure range
Target airborne concentration
Hazard Group range
(w/ examples)
Particulate Vapors

A - Skin and eye irritants >1-10 mg/m3 >50-500 ppm

B - Harmful on single exposure >0.1-1 mg/m3 >5-50 ppm

C - Severely irritating & corrosive;

>0.01-0.1 mg/m3 >0.5-5 ppm
skin sensitizers
D - Very toxic on single exposure;
<0.01 mg/m3 <0.5 ppm
reproductive hazard

E - Carcinogens, asthmagens Seek specialist advice

Prevent or reduce skin and/or eye

S: skin and eye contact
exposure
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SEG1
gm = 0.1 ppm 90%CI( 0.03, 0.32 )
gsd = 2.0 90%CI( 1.5, 21 )

5
4

3
GSD

2 D C B A NR

1
0.01 0.1 1 10 100 1,000
GM

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Comments
The category cutoffs and ranges for the AIHA
Exposure Control Band model is substance-
specific and correspond to regimens of
Actions.
The UK/ILO Control Banding model is used
solely for determining if exposures tend to be
in the target Control Band.

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III. Intro to Bayesian Decision Analysis
(BDA)

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Bayesian Decision Analysis (BDA)
An adjunct or alternative to the calculation
and interpretation of traditional statistics.
The goal of BDA is to estimate the probability
that the true exposure profile falls into a
particular category, or Exposure Rating.
BDA can explicitly incorporate professional
judgment.

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Foundation of BDA:
Bayes’ Theorem

Posterior Likelihood Prior

Correction Factor
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Modified Bayes’ Equation

Popi = all combinations of G and D within the ith

Exposure Control Category.

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References
Hewett, P. et al.: Rating Exposure
Control Using Bayesian Decision
Analysis. Journal of Occupational and
Environmental Health, in press (2006).

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BDA Summary
Input: professional judgment + data
Output: Decision Charts
„ Prior decision distribution - represents our
professional judgment regarding the probability of
each of the five Exposure Ratings.
„ Likelihood decision distribution - the set of
probabilities of each Exposure Rating calculated
using only the collected data.
„ Posterior decision distribution - the set of
probabilities of each Exposure Rating calculated
using Bayes’ equation.

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IV. Incorporating Professional
Judgment

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Prior Decision Distribution
Categorical
„ Assign an a priori
probability to each
Exposure Rating zone
Prior

Decision Probability
0.6
0.8
0.6
0.17 0.17
0.4
0.03 0.03
0.2
0
0 1 2 3 4
Exposure Rating

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Basis for the Prior Decision Distribution
„ Past data from this or similar SEGs
„ Personal experience with this SEG or job
„ Peak readings from a direct reading
instrument
„ Recommendations from other IHs
„ Physical / chemical modeling calculations
„ Expert system recommendations
Š e.g., UK/ILO Control Banding model
„ and so on …
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SEG1 data:
x = {0.20, 0.05, 0.10} ppm
OEL = 1 ppm
Substance: Dimethyl Death
AIHC Exposure Categories
„ 4 : X0.95 > 1ppm
„ 3 : 0.5ppm < X0.95 < 1ppm
„ 2 : 0.1ppm < X0.95 < 0.5ppm
„ 1 : 0.01ppm < X0.95 < 0.1ppm
„ 0 : X0.95 < 0.01ppm

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SEG2 data:
x = {2.0, 0.5, 1.0} ppm
OEL = 1 ppm
Substance: Dimethyl Death
AIHA Exposure Categories
„ 4 : X0.95 > 1ppm
„ 3 : 0.5ppm < X0.95 < 1ppm
„ 2 : 0.1ppm < X0.95 < 0.5ppm
„ 1 : 0.01ppm < X0.95 < 0.1ppm
„ 0 : X0.95 < 0.01ppm

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V. Incorporating Exposure Modeling
or an Expert System
Example: Let’s use the UK/ILO Control
Banding “expert system” to inform our
Professional Judgment.
The UK/ILO Control Banding predicts the
range of probable exposures, as function of
three exposure determinants:
„ Quantity
„ Dustiness or vaporization potential
„ Level of control

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Example: UK/ILO Control Banding -
Predicted exposures for both SEG1 and SEG2
Exposure Predictor Band (ppm)
Control
Approach ml – med,hi m3 – med
ml – lo m3 – hi
L, m3 – lo L – med,hi
General
<5 5-50 50-500 >500
ventilation

Local Exhaust <0.5 0.5-5 5-50 5-500

Containment <0.05 0.05-0.5 0.5-5 0.5-5

Quantity – ml, L, m3
Vaporization potential – lo, med, hi
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A typical “Control Banding” Posterior
Decision Chart ? ? ? ?
Decision Probability 1.000
0.996Prior

1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.000
0.001 0.000
0.001 0.000
0.001 0.000
0.001
0.2
0
D C B A NR
Exposure Rating

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SEG1 data:
x = {0.20, 0.05, 0.10} ppm
OEL = 1 ppm
Substance: Dimethyl Death
R-phrases: R48/20
Hazard Band C
„ NR: X0.95 > 500ppm
„ A : 50ppm < X0.95 < 500ppm
„ B : 5ppm < X0.95 < 50ppm
„ C : 0.5ppm < X0.95 < 5ppm
„ D : X0.95 < 0.5ppm

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SEG2 data:
x = {2.0, 0.5, 1.0} ppm
OEL = 1 ppm
Substance: Dimethyl Death
R-phrases: R48/20
Hazard Band C
„ NR: X0.95 > 500ppm
„ A : 50ppm < X0.95 < 500ppm
„ B : 5ppm < X0.95 < 50ppm
„ C : 0.5ppm < X0.95 < 5ppm
„ D : X0.95 < 0.5ppm

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VI. Feedback
The Prior and the Likelihood Decision
Charts may not agree.
This could be considered feedback.

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What if my Initial
Rating was AIHA
Category 4 but the BDA
analysis of the data
suggest Category 2?

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What if my Initial
Rating was AIHA
Category 2, and I
collect one
measurement, which
was 90% of the OEL?

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Contact Information
Paul Hewett PhD CIH
Exposure Assessment Solutions, Inc.
phewett@oesh.com
304.685.7050

Copyright 2006 Exposure Assessment Solutions, Inc. 38