Lifetime data analysis

Professor Jane L Hutton, Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick

December 2008

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Examples
Aluminium smelting : Alumina liqueed in steel-lined cell. Cell replaced when carbon lining cracks. Record days of service until cell replacement. Australian Prime Ministers : Months in oce of Australian Prime Minister. Leukaemia patients : Survival time in weeks of two groups of leukaemia patients. The groups are AG+ and AG-, and white blood cell count is known. (Feigl and Zelen).
Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Examples
Electrical insulating uid : Investigate time to breakdon for insulating uid. Relate to high voltage level, and then normal voltage level. Brain tumours and Epilepsy : Which drug reduces the number of seizures in children? Does the same drug work in adults? Cerebral Palsy : What aects long will my child live?

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Aluminium smelting
Failure time for reduction cells in aluminium smelting, in days: 1540,1415,660,999,1193,1006,869,1035, 797, 296, 775, 1424, 1169, 1500, 728, 670, 841 Sort into increasing order: 296 660 670 728 775 797 841 869 999 1005 1035 1169 1193 1415 1424 1500 1540 Five number summary: Minimum Lower Quartile 296.0 775.0 Median Upper Maximum Quartile 999.0 1193.0 1540.0

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

ailure time for reduction cells in aluminium smeltin

1.2 0.8 400
Lifetime data analysis

0.9

1.0

1.1

600

800

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick

1000 Days

1200

1400

Distribution of failure time for reduction cells in aluminium smelting

1.0 Estimated survival function 0.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

500

1000

1500

Days Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick

Lifetime data analysis

Leukaemia patients
Survival of leukaemia patients
1.0

AG AG +
Estimated survival function 0.8 0.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6

50

100

150

Weeks Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick

Lifetime data analysis

Survival of leukaemia patients

1.0

AG AG +
Estimated survival function 0.8 0.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6

50 Weeks

100

150

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Electrical insulating uid

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Breakdown time by voltage level

36 32 34 38

30

4 2 2 0 20 40 60 80 100 Breakdown time (minutes) 120

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

26

28

Breakdown by voltage level; log plot

8 Breakdown time (log minutes) -2 26 0 2 4 6

28

30

32

34

36

38

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, TheVoltage level(kV) University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Breakdown time by voltage level

1.0

kV=28
0.8 Estimated survival function 0.6

0.2

0.4

kV=30

kV=32 kV=36
kV=38

kV=34

0.0 0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Minutes Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick

Lifetime data analysis

Brain tumours and Epilepsy

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Survival of people with brain tumours

1.0 Estimated survival 0.0 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8

20

40

60

80

Time to death of Warwick Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University (months)

Lifetime data analysis

Survival of people with brain tumours F

1.00 Estimated survival 0.05 0 0.10 0.50

Time to death (years) Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick

Lifetime data analysis

Survival of people with brain tumours R

1.00 Estimated survival 0.05 0 0.10 0.50

Time to death (years) Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick

Lifetime data analysis

Cerebral Palsy
Dear Professor Hutton John Winter v Royal York Hospital I act on behalf of John Winter, who was born on 1 May 2003 at Royal York Hospital. My clients claim is being pursued through the High Court. The Defendants have made some admissions in relation to both breach of duty and causation. John suers from cerebral palsy, with profound developmental delay and quadraplegia. He has severe visual impairment, and suers from epilepsy. I write to see whether you and Professor Pharoah would be wiling to prepare a report on life expectancy in this case.
Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Predicted survival from age two years

1.0

No severe disabilities, low bw

Only severe ambulatory disability, low bw Only severe ambulatory disability, normal bw

Predicted survival function

0.8

Severe motor disabilities, low bw

Severe motor disabilities, normal bw

0.6

Severe motor & cognitive disabilities, low bw

Severe motor & cognitive disabilities, normal bw

0.4

Severe motor, cognitive & visual disabilities, low bw normal bw: birthweight > 2500g low bw: birthweight <= 2500g Severe motor, cognitive & visual disabilities, normal bw

10

20 Age in years

30

40

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Statistical model
Let t denote lifetime, Amb indicate whether in wheel-chair, Mand indicate able to feed and dress self, IQ denote IQ level, Blind indicate blindness, Lowbw indicate low birth weight, Yob denote year of birth, and x a vector of all covariates.

Tx = 11.37 1.11Amb 1.02Mand 0.81IQ 0.70Blind 0.02Yob + 0.3Yob + , where is a random variable with a logistic distribution, S(t) = x 1/0.76 /{1 + x 1/0.76 }.
Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis

Course outline
Introduction Main denitions and formulae Non-parametric survival analysis

Kaplan-Meier estimate Actuarial estimate Log-rank test Survival functions Likelihood methods Diagnostic plots Accelerated life models Proportional hazards models

Parametric survival analysis

Regression models for survival data

Professor Jane L Hutton,Department of Statistics, The University of Warwick Lifetime data analysis