IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 19, NO.

3, SEPTEMBER 2004 641

Generating Capacity Adequacy

Associated With Wind Energy
Roy Billinton, Life Fellow, IEEE, and Guang Bai

Abstract—The wind is a highly variable energy source and

behaves far differently than conventional energy sources. This
paper presents a methodology for capacity adequacy evaluation of
power systems including wind energy. The results and discussions
on two representative systems containing both conventional
generation units and wind energy conversion systems (WECS)
are presented. A Monte Carlo simulation approach is used to
conduct the analysis. The hourly wind speeds are simulated using
an autoregressive moving average time-series model. A wide range
of studies were conducted on two different sized reliability test
systems. The studies show that the contribution of a WECS to the
reliability performance of a generation system can be quantified
and is highly dependent on the wind site conditions. A WECS
can make a significant reliability contribution given a reasonably Fig. 1. Overall system configuration.
high wind speed. Wind energy independence also has a significant
positive impact on the reliability contribution of multiple WECS. expectation (LOEE) indices [1]. The reliability implications as-
Index Terms—Adequacy evaluation, generating systems, relia- sociated with removing different conventional generating units
bility, wind energy. from the test systems and replacing them with wind turbine gen-
erators (WTG) are illustrated. The wind turbine generating units
I. INTRODUCTION are assumed to be located at single and multiple independent
wind sites. A sequential Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) proce-

U TILIZATION of renewable energy, such as that provided

by the wind, for electric power generation is being
given serious consideration around the world due to the global
dure was used to assess the adequacy of the combined gener-
ating systems.

environmental concerns associated with conventional energy II. MODEL CONSIDERATIONS

sources. Many people consider the wind to be a promising and
encouraging alternative for power generation because of its The basic system structure is shown in Fig. 1.
tremendous environmental and social benefits, together with
A. Modeling Wind Speed
public support and government incentives.
The wind, however, is an intermittent and diffuse energy A crucial requirement in the reliability evaluation of a power
source as wind speed is highly variable and site specific. system containing wind energy is to accurately simulate the
Wind behavior is quite different from that associated with hourly wind speed. Wind speed varies with time and sites and at
conventional energy sources. Evaluation of the contribution to a specific hour is related to the wind speeds of previous hours.
generating capacity adequacy due to a wind energy conversion An autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time series [2] was
system (WECS), therefore, involves special modeling and data used as the wind speed model. The general expression is as fol-
considerations. The capacity benefit that can be assigned to lows:
a WECS is highly dependent on the wind regime at the site
location. A WECS is inherently less reliably than a conven-
tional generating unit and, therefore, plays a different role in (1)
electric utility energy supply. This phenomenon is illustrated by
where is the time-series value at time ,
comparing the performance of WECS and that of conventional
and are the autoregressive and moving
units from a system reliability point of view.
average parameters of the model respectively. is a normal
Two different sized reliability test systems were used to con-
white noise process with zero mean and a variance of (i.e.,
duct the studies. System adequacy was evaluated using the con-
), where “normally independently distribution is
ventional loss of load expectation (LOLE) and loss of energy
denoted NID.
The hourly wind speed at time is obtained from the
mean wind speed , its standard deviation and the time-
Manuscript received April 5, 2003. Paper no. TEC-00267-2002.
The authors are with the Power System Research Group, University of series value , as shown in
Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK S7N 5A9, Canada.
Digital Object Identifier 10.1109/TEC.2004.827718 (2)
0885-8969/04$20.00 © 2004 IEEE
642 IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 19, NO. 3, SEPTEMBER 2004
TABLE I
RBTS RELIABILITY DATA
B. Modeling Wind Turbine Generators
There is a nonlinear relationship between the power output
of the WTG and the wind speed. The relation can be described
by the operational parameters of the WTG. The commonly used
parameters are the cut-in, rated, and cut-out wind speeds. The
hourly power output can be obtained from the simulated hourly
wind speed using
(3)
where , , , and are the cut-in speed, the rated speed,
the cut-out speed, and the rated power of a WTG unit, respec-
tively. The constants A, B, and C are presented in [3]. WTG
rated at 225 kW, and cut-in, rated, and cut-out speeds of 14.4,
45, and 90 km/h, respectively, were used in the studies presented
in this paper. These values can be optimized for the site condi-
tions.
C. Reliability Test Systems
Two published reliability test systems with different capac-
ities, the Roy Billinton Test System (RBTS) [4] and the IEEE
Reliability Test System (IEEE-RTS) [5] were used in the studies
presented in this paper. The RBTS consists of 11 conventional
generating units with a total capacity of 240 MW. The gener-
ating unit ratings and reliability data for the RBTS are shown
in Table I. The detailed data for the IEEE-RTS are presented in
[4]. The total capacity of the IEEE-RTS is 3405 MW.
D. Load Model
The IEEE-RTS chronological load profile on a per unit basis
consisting of 8736 load points for a year was used in both RBTS
and IEEE-RTS studies. The annual peak load for the RBTS is
185 MW. The annual peak load is 2805 MW for the IEEE-RTS.
The annual hourly load is developed by multiplying the load
model per unit values by the annual peak load.
TABLE II
BENEFIT OF ADDING 22.5 MW OF WTG UNITS
III. MONTE CARLO SIMULATION
The simulation procedure for generating capacity adequacy
assessment including the WECS is briefly described as follows
[6].
a) Create a capacity model for the conventional generating
facilities using chronological simulation.
b) Construct a capacity model for the WTG units using the
time-series ARMA model and the WTG power output (2).
c) Create the total system generating capacity model by com-
bining the capacity models obtained in steps a) and b).
d) Form the required reliability indices by observing the
system capacity reserve model over a long time period.
The simulation can be terminated when a specified degree of
confidence has been achieved. The stopping criterion used in
these studies is
(4)
where is the LOLE, is the number of sampling years,
is the function mean value, and is the function stan-
dard deviation.
The WTG units are considered to be base loaded in that
energy is supplied whenever the wind is sufficient. A computer
program designated as BGWind based on the simulation
procedure presented above was developed at the University of
Saskatchewan and used in the studies described in this paper.
IV. RELIABILITY BENEFIT OF WIND ENERGY
Case studies with respect to reliability assessment of wind
energy have been conducted using wind data from sites located
at North Battleford, Saskatoon, and Regina in Saskatchewan,
Canada. The average wind speeds at North Battleford, Saska-
toon, and Regina are 14.63, 16.78, and 19.52 km/h, respectively.
Table II presents the reliability indices before and after 100
WTG units located at a single wind site with a total capacity
of 22.5 MW are added to the RBTS. It can be seen from the
table that the adequacy of the RBTS improves with the addition
of WTG units.
A. Effect of WECS Capacity
Fig. 2 shows the change in LOLE as additional WTG capacity
is added to the RBTS. It can be seen from Fig. 2 that there is a
reliability benefit from the WECS capacity. The changes in the
LOLE are significant in the beginning and tend to saturate when
more WTG units are added. This phenomenon is due to the fact
that all the WTG in a wind farm are subject to the availability of
the wind at the specific location. It can also be seen in the figure
BILLINTON AND BAI: GENERATING CAPACITY ADEQUACY ASSOCIATED WITH WIND ENERGY
Fig. 2. LOLE versus WTG total capacity (RBTS).
Fig. 3. LOEE versus WTG total capacity (RBTS).
that the same WECS produces different reliability contributions
from wind farms with different mean wind speeds. The curve
for the Regina data indicates a better reliability performance
because the mean wind speed at Regina is higher than at the
two other sites.
Fig. 3 shows the change in the LOEE as additional WTG
capacity is added to the RBTS. It can be seen that the trend in
the LOEE in Fig. 3 is very similar to that of the LOLE shown
in Fig. 2.
B. Effect of Mean Wind Speed
The power output of a WECS is extremely site specific and
will increase if the facilities are located at a point where a higher
average wind velocity is experienced. In order to illustrate this
phenomenon, the hourly mean wind speed was modified by a
simple multiplying factor, and used to calculate the reliability
indices.
The LOLE and LOEE values for the 100-WTG unit case are
shown in Figs. 4 and 5, respectively. It can be seen from the fig-
ures that both the LOLE and LOEE decrease slowly in the early
stages and drop quickly in the middle stage as the wind speed
multiplication factor increases, but tend to increase at the end.
This can be explained by the unique nonlinear characteristics
of a WTG. A WTG is not operational when the wind speed is
643
Fig. 4. LOLE versus mean wind speed multiplication factor (RBTS).
Fig. 5. LOEE versus mean wind speed multiplication factor (RBTS).
below the cut-in speed and is shut down for safety reasons if the
wind velocity is higher than the cut-out speed. In both cases, the
power output of the WTG is zero. The power output of a WTG
increases with wind speeds between the cut-in speed and rated
speed after which the rated power output is constant.
V. RELIABILITY CONTRIBUTION DIFFERENCE BETWEEN
CONVENTIONAL GENERATION UNITS AND WTG
An important consideration in adequacy evaluation of power
systems containing wind energy is the reliability contribution
that WTG units make compared with that of conventional gener-
ating units. In order to investigate this, different units in the reli-
ability test systems were removed and the number of WTG units
required to maintain the criterion reliability was determined.
A. Case Studies of the RBTS
A 5-MW conventional generating unit was first removed from
the RBTS and replaced by WTG units. A Regina location wind
regime was assumed. The risk criterion is the RBTS original
LOLE of 1.05 h/year. Fig. 6 shows the variation in the LOLE as
a function of the WTG capacity for different mean wind speeds.
Fig. 6 shows that the LOLE increases from 1.05 to 1.68 h/year
after the 5-MW unit is removed from the RBTS. It also shows
644
Fig. 6. LOLE versus WTG total capacity assuming a 5-MW unit is removed
from the RBTS.
TABLE III
WTG UNITS RELATIVE TO A 5-MW CONVENTIONAL GENERATING
UNIT (RBTS)
that the LOLE decreases with increasing WTG capacity. The
LOLE is restored to 1.05 h/year when 45 MW of WTG is added
at a wind speed factor of 1.0. This indicates that 45 MW of
WTG is able to replace a 5-MW conventional generating unit
under this particular condition. Fig. 6 also shows that less WTG
capacity is required to replace the 5-MW unit at higher average
wind speeds.
Table III shows the WTG capacity required to maintain a
LOLE of 1.05 h/year, and the ratio of this capacity to the 5-MW
conventional unit capacity removed from the RBTS, for dif-
ferent mean wind speeds.
Table III shows that the mean wind speed has a significant
influence on the ability of WTG to replace conventional gener-
ating units. In order to meet the adequacy criterion, 45 MW of
WTG units are required to replace a 5-MW conventional unit at
a site with a mean wind speed of 19.52 km/h. Table III shows
that only 11 MW of WTG capacity is required if the mean wind
speed is increased by 50%.
A similar study was conducted by removing a 10-MW unit
from the RBTS. The results are shown in Table IV.
A further study was conducted by removing a 20-MW unit
from the RBTS. The results are shown in Table V.
Table V shows that if the mean wind speed is 19.52 km/h,
it is not possible to maintain the LOLE reliability criterion of
1.05 h/year with the addition of WTG. The LOLE saturates at a
higher LOLE under this wind condition. If the mean wind speed
increases by 20% or more, however, it is possible to maintain the
criterion reliability by the addition of WTG.
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 19, NO. 3, SEPTEMBER 2004
TABLE IV
WTG UNITS RELATIVE TO A10-MW CONVENTIONAL GENERATING
UNIT (RBTS)
TABLE V
WTG UNITS RELATIVE TO A20-MW CONVENTIONAL GENERATING
UNIT (RBTS)
TABLE VI
WTG UNITS RELATIVE TO A40-MW CONVENTIONAL GENERATING
UNIT (RBTS)
This is an important consideration. The addition of large
amounts of WTG may be extremely advantageous from an
energy point of view but may also require the commensurate
addition of conventional capacity to sustain an acceptable level
of system adequacy. This is illustrated by the following study
in which a 40-MW unit was removed from the RBTS. The
results are shown in Table VI.
Table VI shows that it is not possible to maintain the LOLE
criterion at 1.05 h/year by the addition of WTG, even if the mean
wind speed is increased by 50%.
Fig. 7 was created using the replacement ratio from Ta-
bles III–VI. The columns with diagonal shading indicate that
no replacement ratio is available, as the criterion reliability
cannot be maintained at the mean wind speeds shown.
B. Case Studies of the IEEE-RTS
A similar WECS analysis to that illustrated in the above sec-
tion was conducted using the IEEE-RTS. A 12-MW conven-
tional generating unit was first removed from the system, fol-
lowed by a 50-MW unit, a 100-MW unit and a 350-MW unit re-
BILLINTON AND BAI: GENERATING CAPACITY ADEQUACY ASSOCIATED WITH WIND ENERGY
Fig. 7. Replacement ratio versus mean wind speed multiplication factor
(RBTS).
Fig. 8. Replacement ratio versus mean wind speed multiplication factor
(IEEE-RTS).
moval. The WTG units required to maintain the LOLE risk cri-
terion of 6.9 h/year were determined in each case. The replace-
ment ratios are shown in Fig. 8. As in Fig. 7, the columns with
diagonal shading indicate that the criterion reliability cannot be
maintained at the wind speeds shown. Replacement ratios exist
and are shown for mean wind speed multiplication factors of 1.4
and 1.5, with a 350-MW unit removal.
Figs. 7 and 8 show that the reliability contribution of WECS
depends on many factors including the wind conditions and the
WTG capacity. The mean wind speed has a very significant in-
fluence on the ability to replace conventional generation with
WTG.
VI. RELIABILITY BENEFITS OF INDEPENDENT
WIND ENERGY SOURCES
A WTG produces no power in the absence of sufficient wind
and under these circumstances makes no contribution to the
power system. There is a definable probability that there will
be insufficient wind at a given site. The probability, however,
of there being no wind simultaneously at two widely separated
645
Fig. 9. LOLE versus WTG total capacity assuming a 20-MW unit is removed
from the RBTS (single-, two-, and three-wind farms).
Fig. 10. Replacement ratio versus the capacity removed from the RBTS
(single-, two-, and three-wind farms).
independent wind sites is much less, and locating WTG at in-
dependent wind sites should be of considerable benefit in im-
proving the WTG reliability performance.
Fig. 9 shows that after a 20-MW unit is removed from the
RBTS, the system reliability level cannot be sustained by the
addition of WTG if they all located at a single wind site, but it
can be restored by adding 220 MW of WTG if they are equally
located at two independent wind sites, or by 150 MW of WTG
if they are located at three independent wind sites. The Regina
location wind regime was used in this study.
The same conventional units used in the previous case studies
were removed from the RBTS. Similar analyses were conducted
assuming that the WTG were equally located at two and three
independent wind sites. It can be seen from Fig. 10 that in-
creased wind independence has a significant positive impact on
the WTG reliability contribution. The replacement ratios associ-
ated with the two and three wind site studies are always less that
those for a single wind site. The studies conducted also show
that there are decreasing benefits associated with increasing the
number of wind sites. It is important to note that the criterion
reliability can maintained by adding WTG when a 40-MW unit
is removed, if the WTG are located at three completely indepen-
dent wind sites. It is also important to realize that 650 MW of
WTG capacity is required in this case. If the mean wind speed
at each of the three independent wind sites is increased by 50%,
646
Fig. 11. Replacement ratio versus the capacity removed from the IEEE-RTS
(single-, two-, and three-wind farms).
then 60 MW would be required to maintain the reliability crite-
rion level.
Fig. 11 shows a similar phenomenon in the case of the
IEEE-RTS. In this case, 2400 MW of WTG capacity is required
to replace a 350-MW unit in a three-wind site expansion. If the
mean wind speed at each of the three independent wind sites is
increased by 50%, then 600 MW would be required to maintain
the reliability criterion level.
VII. CONCLUSIONS
The studies described in this paper were conducted using a
sequential Monte Carlo Simulation procedure. The results ob-
tained using the RBTS and the IEEE-RTS show that the contri-
bution of a WECS to the reliability performance of a generation
system is highly dependent on the site wind condition. This is
an obvious conclusion that is rarely quantified. The focus in this
paper is on the ability to quantify WECS adequacy contribu-
tions and therefore facilitate meaningful appraisals. A WECS
can make a significant reliability contribution at a site with a
high mean wind speed. The WTG capacity required to sustain a
given reliability criterion can, however, be considerably higher
than that associated with conventional generating units. This
is clearly shown by the replacement ratios developed for the
sample systems. In certain situations, it may not be possible to
sustain a given criterion by the addition of WTG capacity at
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENERGY CONVERSION, VOL. 19, NO. 3, SEPTEMBER 2004
a single site. Wind site independence has a significant positive
impact on the WTG reliability contribution, and therefore, lo-
cating WTG units at multiple independent wind sites can im-
prove the system reliability. The studies described in this paper
are focussed on generating capacity adequacy associated with
WECS. Increased wind energy penetration will also require at-
tention to system control and spinning reserve requirements.
These aspects are not included in the studies presented. The
models, methodologies and results presented in this paper can
assist power system planners and utility managers to quantita-
tively assess the capacity benefits of WECS and provide useful
input to the managerial decision process.
REFERENCES
[1] R. Billinton and R. N. Allan, Reliability Evaluation of Power Sys-
tems. New York: Plenum, 1996.
[2] R. Billinton, H. Chen, and R. Ghajar, “Time-series models for reliability
evaluation of power systems including wind energy,” Microelectron. Re-
liab., vol. 36, no. 9, pp. 1253–1261, 1996.
[3] P. Giorsetto and K. F. Utsurogi, “Development of a new procedure for re-
liability modeling of wind turbine generators,” IEEE Trans. Power App.
Syst., vol. PAS-102, pp. 134–143, 1983.
[4] R. Billinton and S. Kumar, “A reliability test system for educational
purposes—basic data,” IEEE Trans. Power Syst., vol. 4, pp. 1238–1244,
Aug. 1989.
[5] IEEE Committee Report, “A reliability test system,” IEEE Trans. Power
App. Syst., vol. 4, pp. 1238–1244, 1989.
[6] R. Billinton and G. Bai, “Adequacy evaluation of generation systems in-
cluding wind energy,” in Proc. IEEE CCECE02, vol. 1, 2002, pp. 24–29.
Roy Billinton (S’59–M’64–SM’73–F’78–LF’01) received the B.Sc. and M.Sc.
degrees from the University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada, and the
Ph.D. and D.Sc. degrees from the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK,
Canada.
He is the author of papers on power system analysis, stability, and economic
system operation and reliability.
Dr. Billinton is a Fellow of the EIC, the Canadian Academy of Engineering,
and the Royal Society of Canada.
Guang Bai received the B.Sc. degree in electrical engineering from the
Gezhouba Institute of Hydraulic and Electrical Engineering, China, in 1994,
and the M.Sc. degree in electrical engineering in 2002.
He was an Electrical Engineer with the Northeast China Electrical Power De-
sign Institute before joining the University of Saskatchewan, Saskatoon, SK,
Canada, as a graduate student in 2000.