A Scientific Scenario for the Ten Plagues of Egypt

by Edward R Doench

Introduction

The story of the Ten Plagues of Egypt is one of the best known “horror stories” in
the world, one which Christians, Jews, and Muslims alike have learned from
childhood. Its most famous cinematic depictions were in Cecil B. DeMille’s 1956
epic The Ten Commandments starring Charlton Heston and Yul Brenner, and
DreamWorks Animation’s 1998 Prince of Egypt starring the voices of Val Kilmer
and Ralph Fiennes. The Plagues have been argued extensively by both theologians
and scientists, and theories about what really happened have included divine
intervention, a volcanic eruption, the effects of the nearby passing of a comet, the
acts of aliens, and even open denial that it ever happened at all.

Most theories regarding the Ten Plagues break down over questions that are
ultimately variations on “When was this supposed to have happened?” and “Why
were the Hebrews spared?” There are even questions about why the events were
not mentioned in the Egyptian historical records.

However, there is a common phrase, usually misattributed as “Occam’s Razor,”

that states some variation of: “The simplest solution is most likely the right one.”
With that in mind, an analysis of the effects of the plagues themselves, the time
frame and sequence in which they occurred, and modern epidemiological
knowledge can provide us with a possible, and even probable, scenario that would
answer many of the questions about the Plagues.

General Background

Although we obviously do not possess all the written records from that era, we can
safely assume that the events of the Plagues, if they happened, would have
occurred roughly 3500 years ago. According to Biblical historian W. Cleon
Skousen, Abraham was born in 2002 BCE (Skousen, First 2,000, 264) and arrived
in Canaan at the age of 75 (Skousen, First 2,000, 280), which would have his
arrival in 1947 BCE. If we assume the Hebrews lived in Egypt for 430 years
following this point (Skousen, Third Thousand, 187), this gives us the date for the
Plagues as 1517 BCE. Depending upon how you date your pharaohs, the current
pharaoh would have been Thutmose II.

Given the nature of the Plagues, this makes a certain sense. Gaston Maspero, the
French Egyptologist who unwrapped Thutmose II’s mummy in 1886, reported:
“He had scarcely reached the age of thirty when he fell a victim to a disease of
which the process of embalming could not remove the traces. The skin is scabrous
in patches, and covered with scars, while the upper part of the skull is bald; the
body is thin and somewhat shrunken, and appears to have lacked vigour and
muscular power” (Maspero).

When considering why the Hebrews were spared, it is important to note that they
were apparently spared only specific plagues, not necessarily all of them. Most
modern scholars place the capitol of Late Middle Period and Early Late Period
Egypt as being at Memphis, at the mouth of the Nile River. The story in Exodus
mentions several times that the Hebrews were in Goshan, which is identified as
being a region approximately fifty miles northeast of present-day Cairo and about
75-100 miles from the Egyptian capitol at Memphis. Due to the weather patterns in
the area, in which the prevailing wind tends to blow from the northeast for much of
the year, this places Goshan significantly upwind of Memphis. Such displacement
would prove important during the events of the Plagues.

As for why the events of the Ten Plagues do not appear in Egyptian historical
records, the Egyptians were indeed notorious record keepers. However, much of
what has been preserved were records of triumphs and religious ritual, and there is
little “bad news” that has been discovered and translated. As can be seen, the
Egyptians were not exactly in a position to make a durable record of the events
within this timeframe.

Plague #1 – Turning the River to Blood

“…he lifted up the rod, and smote the waters that were in the river, in the sight of
Pharaoh, and in the sight of his servants; and all the waters that were in the river
were turned to blood.
“And the fish that was in the river died; and the river stank, and the Egyptians
could not drink of the water of the river; and there was blood throughout all the
land of Egypt.”
“And all the Egyptians digged round about the river for water to drink; for they
could not drink of the water of the river.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 7: 20-21, 24)

Theories for the color change and toxicity of the Nile and the surrounding waters
are wide-rainging: dust from a passing comet; cinnabar dust from a volcano; an
earth-slip causing contamination by red clay; a “Red Tide” freshwater algae
bloom. While any of these theories are possible, the most probable culprit appears
to be some sort of protozoan or dinoflagellate infestation. Marr and Malloy
(1996) postulate a freshwater dinoflagellate biomass bloom that changed the color
of the water and deoxygenated it, rendering the water itself toxic. This would
have killed off the fish upon which the Egyptians relied as a primary source of
protein in their diets.

Plague #2 – The Plague of Frogs

“…Aaron stretched out his hand over the waters of Egypt; and the frogs came up,
and covered the land of Egypt.”
“…and the frogs died out of the houses, out of the villages, and out of the fields.
“And they gathered them together upon heaps: and the land stank.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 8: 6, 13-14)

The death of the fish did more than impact the diet of the Egyptians; it also
removed them as the primary consumer of frog eggs and tadpoles. Absent this
ecological control, the frog population would have exploded. The rising toxicity
of the river would eventually force the frogs onto land and into the homes of the
Egyptians in record numbers. Without access to safe water, however, the frogs
would quickly die, releasing the ecological control that they themselves provided
over what was to be the next agent of the Plagues.

Plague #3 – The Plague of Lice

“…Aaron stretched out his hand with his rod, and smote the dust of the earth, and
it became lice in man, and in beast; all the dust of the land became lice throughout
all the land of Egypt.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 8:17)

It is important to realize that the term “lice” in this context is something of a

misnomer, as the Plagues would have occurred nearly a thousand years before
Aristotle classified insects. Rather, the term would have been applied at that time
to any vermin that were small enough to be visible to the unaided eye but too
small to see clearly.

Anyone who has been pestered by a gnat, midge, or “no-see-um” has met a
member of the species Culicoides, a nearly-microscopic, bloodsucking species of
the nematocerous flies that are usually held in check by frogs. The larvae of the
Culicoides feed upon microorganisms in decomposing organic matter… such as
the countless numbers of dead fish and frogs that were so conveniently lying
around the countryside. A sudden emergence of an overabundance of Culicoides
would look very much like the earth itself had turned dust into “lice.” Even
worse, Culicoides are biological vectors for several human and animal diseases.
 Plague #4 – The Plague of Flies

“…and there came a grievous swarm of flies into the house of Pharaoh, and into
his servants' houses, and into all the land of Egypt: the land was corrupted by
reason of the swarm of flies.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 8: 24)

Flying vermin larger than “lice” but obviously not beetles or locusts would have
been considered “flies.” Tsetse flies and stable flies both possess a nasty bite that
rips flesh and leaves open puncture wounds that can lead to secondary infections.
Such flies are known to attack humans, and the intensity and severity of the
attacks by swarms of such flies has been reported to cause anemia in penned
cattle and to cause stampedes in wild animals. Like their smaller cousins, the
Culicoides, they are vectors for disease. However, Tsetse flies are seldom seen in
northern Africa, which makes the far more cosmopolitan stable fly a better
candidate for the 4th Plague.

Plague #5 – The Murrain of Cattle

“…and all the cattle of Egypt died...”

(King James Version Bible, Exod. 9:6)

The 5th Plague struck not only cattle but at nearly all hooved mammals – horses,
donkeys, camels, cattle, oxen, and sheep. It appears to have spared humans, pigs,
domestic pets, wild carnivores, birds, amphibians, and reptiles. Although there is
not one singular disease that would explain this, there are two that, if they appeared
at the same time, would have the effect of the 5th Plague. African horse sickness
has a 95% fatality rate in horses, donkeys, mules, and other equines, but spares
other hooved mammals. Bluetongue in fatal in cattle, sheep, and goats, but not for
horses. Neither disease causes illness in humans or pigs.

Both African horse sickness and Bluetongue are transmitted by the Culicoides
midge. However, Culicoides is a weak flying vector, so anything outside of its
range would be relatively safe from these diseases. Since the Hebrews were in
Goshan, nearly 100 miles upwind from where the plague was occurring, their
animals were spared.

Plague #6 – The Plague of Boils

“…it became a boil breaking forth with blains upon man, and upon beast.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 9:10)
Glanders is a highly contagious airborne disease found throughout the Middle
East and Africa. Transmitted by direct contact, through fly bites, or the
consumption of tainted meat, it is primarily a respiratory infection that affects
horses, donkeys, mules, goats and humans. Most importantly, among other
symptoms is the production of boil-like nodular eruptions on the face, legs, and
arms.

Again, the Hebrews were fortunate in living far enough away to be out of range
of the airborne vector (stable flies) and therefore their livestock was spared this
plague.

Plague #7 – The Plague of Hail

“So there was hail, and fire mingled with the hail, very grievous, such as there was
none like it in all the land of Egypt since it became a nation.
“And the hail smote throughout all the land of Egypt all that was in the field, both
man and beast; and the hail smote every herb of the field, and brake every tree of
the field.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 9: 24-25)

Hailstorms are a seasonal phenomenon that occur throughout temperate and

tropical regions of the world, and Egypt is no exception. Normally a hailstorm –
even a large one – would have been only a relatively minor inconvenience…but
with the series of disasters that had been striking the Egyptians, this one would
have proven deadly. A particularly large storm would generally not only include
hail but also lightning and torrential rain. None of the previous Plagues had
affected the crops, but they had taken their toll upon man and beast alike and the
crops, which should have already been started to be harvested, were still in the
fields where they were exposed to the harsh weather.

Hailstorms, even large ones, tend to be regional phenomenon; the Hebrews in

Goshan may have had some bad weather but were far enough away from the heart
of the storm to avoid the majority of the damage. Also, they would not have
suffered nearly as badly from the Murrain of Cattle and the Plague of Boils as did
the Egyptians themselves, and would have therefore been able to bring in the
majority of their harvest.

Plague #8 – The Plague of Locusts

“…brought an east wind upon the land all that day, and all that night; and when it
was morning, the east wind brought the locusts.
“And the locust went up over all the land of Egypt, and rested in all the coasts of
Egypt: very grievous were they; before them there were no such locusts as they,
neither after them shall be such.
“For they covered the face of the whole earth, so that the land was darkened; and
they did eat every herb of the land, and all the fruit of the trees which the hail had
left: and there remained not any green thing in the trees, or in the herbs of the field,
through all the land of Egypt.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 10: 13-15)

The desert locust, native to Africa, India, and the Middle East, will form swarms
that devour all standing crops – and pretty much every other form of living
vegetation – in its path. A period of heavy rain, such as that which would
accompany a massive hailstorm, forms an ideal breeding environment for desert
locusts, causing swarms to appear to arise spontaneously.

To the Egyptians, this would have been yet another devastating blow to their
already-precarious food supply. The crops remaining in the fields and the fruit-
bearing trees that had been damaged but not destroyed by the hail were now at the
mercy of the ravenous swarms of locusts which, once they passed, would have
left nothing edible in their wake. The only way to save what was left of the
harvest – a harvest that was broken by hail, saturated by rain, and contaminated
by insect feces – would to be gather up everything even remotely edible and
hustle it off to safety in secure granaries and underground storage rooms.

It is likely that the locusts struck at Goshan as well, but by that point the Hebrews
would have already been able to bring in much of the harvest. The locust swarms
would not have had as much impact upon them.

Plague #9 – The Plague of Darkness

“…there was a thick darkness in all the land of Egypt three days”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 10: 22)

An Egyptian khamsin is a massive and hot wind that frequently carries with it a
dust storm capable of blotting out the sun. Although most khamsins last only hours,
it is not unheard of for the most extreme of them to last three or four days or more,
particularly if they are stalled against strong winds that are blowing in the opposite
direction. The only protection against such a storm is to seek shelter indoors, and
even then, the wind is powerful enough to erode holes in walls and force drafts into
homes, extinguishing light sources nearly as fast as they can be lit.

Even after the storm had passed, enough dust and sand would have been deposited
to cover windows and make it difficult to even open doors.
According to Exodus, the Hebrews were unaffected by this darkness. It is likely
that they were out of the direct path of the worst of the storm, and their local winds
patterns would have been enough to hold the lesser khamsins at bay if not disrupt
them entirely.

Plague #10 – Death of the Firstborn

“And it came to pass, that at midnight the LORD smote all the firstborn in the land
of Egypt, from the firstborn of Pharaoh that sat on his throne unto the firstborn of
the captive that was in the dungeon; and all the firstborn of cattle.
“And Pharaoh rose up in the night, he, and all his servants, and all the Egyptians;
and there was a great cry in Egypt; for there was not a house where there was not
one dead.”
(King James Version Bible, Exod. 11: 29-30)

Of all the Plagues, this one has long been the trickiest to define. Many researchers
have suggested such things as food poisoning, anthrax, or some sort of
communicable disease. However, what stands out is the very lack of
documentation about it. All that we know is that it happened very swiftly, had no
visible symptoms, and affected only select individuals. None of those three
features match any of the suggested causes.

After more than nine months of catastrophe followed by catastrophe, the

Egyptians are in pretty dire straits. There is little reliable fresh water. Nearly all
the fish are dead, and they cannot be sure how safe it would be to eat those that
remain. The remaining livestock are too tainted to eat, too weak to be of any use
in the fields, and are needed to rebuild the herds. The people are emaciated and
bear the scars of grievous diseases. The crops, be it fruit, vegetables, or grain, are
gone; that which was not destroyed by the hail or flooded out by the rain –
including any surviving seedlings that could have provided the start of next year’s
crops – was devoured by locusts, save for the little that could be salvaged before
the locusts struck. The khamsin has deposited enough sand that the lands will
have to be re-tilled and re-irrigated before any new crops can be grown; it has
also buried the storehouses under a layer of thick, warm sand.

With no available food sources visible, the Egyptians rush to dig out the buried
storehouses. The first few to enter the chambers are struck down almost instantly
by an invisible enemy. Order is maintained, and the grains are brought out to be
baked into bread. As is their right in this patriarchal society, the most important
individuals (the “first-born”) eat first while the strongest among the surviving
animals have forced the others away from the fodder… and within mere hours,
the first-born among the Egyptians and the most dominant of their animals are
dead.

Just as hay that is cut and stored while still wet will rapidly grow mold, so too
will grains. The ancient Egyptians were likely unaware that their damaged and
wet crops, stored for several days in a warm, dark environment, would breed
deadly mycotoxins that would contaminate the upper, most recently gathered
layers of stored foods. Airborne mycotoxins, such as those made airborne when
the formerly still air in the storage chambers was disturbed, can kill almost
immediately when inhaled; others remain toxic even after they have been baked
into bread. This would not be normal food poisoning, which could take days or
even weeks to kill someone and would have easily identifiable symptoms. The
younger people and less-capable animals had not been similarly exposed to the
contaminated grains; the food they consumed had been made using still-
uncontaminated grains located in lower levels.

Conclusion

Although this scenario does not necessarily tell exactly what happened, it fits the
available information and, if filtered through 3500 years of oral tradition and
translation through several different languages and theopolitical agendas, does
present a reasonable and realistic explanation.

Oddly enough, this scenario does not rule out the possibility of extra-normal
intervention that could very well have been seen as “divine” at the time. Arthur C.
Clarke’s Third Law states “Any sufficiently advanced technology is
indistinguishable from magic.” Certain events, starting with the proposed
freshwater dinoflagellate biomass bloom that kicked everything off, had to occur
in a specific sequence for the Ten Plagues to happen as recorded, and our modern
scientific and technological knowledge is currently on the cusp of being able to
replicate those same events.
 Works Cited

Marr, J. A., Malloy, C. E. (1996). An Epidemiologic Analysis of the Ten Plagues of

Egypt. Caduceus, 15(3), 7-24.

Maspero, Gaston. History Of Egypt, Chaldæa, Syria, Babylonia, and Assyria, Volume 4
(of 12). Project Gutenberg EBook. www.gutenberg.org/files/17324/17324-h/17324-
h.htm. Accessed 08 December 2019.

Skousen, W. Cleon. The First 2,000 Years. Bookcraft, 1968

---. The Third Thousand Years. Bookcraft, 1975