Course Code: QTTM509 Course Title: Research Methodology-I

Course Instructor: Mr. Tanveer Kajla

Academic Task No. 1 Academic Task Title: Assignment II

Date of Allotment: 1|10|2021 Date of Submission: 14|10|2021

Student Name Student Reg. No. Student Roll no.:

Lalit Kumar 12111750 RQ2144B74

Robin Jaiswal 12112555 RQ2144B75

Gopal Gupta 12112760 RQ2144B77

Jagrati Upadhyaya 12114222 RQ2144B84

Learning Outcome: During finishing this task went over different strategies for examining
information and different strategies/procedures for assessing the information gathered, that can
be utilized further recorded as a hard copy of the end and proposals of a similar task.

Declaration: We proclaim that this Assignment is my work. We have not replicated it from
some other understudy's work or some other source with the exception of where due affirmation
is made unequivocally in the text, nor has any part been composed for me by some other
individual.

Student’s signature

General Observation Suggestion for Improvement The best part of assignment

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 IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON TOURISM SECTOR

CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
2. METHODOLOGY
3. DATA ANALYSIS
4. RESEARCH RELATED QUESTIONNAIRE
5. CONCLUSION
6. RECOMMENDATIONS

REFERENCESINTRODUCTION

Coronavirus pandemic, marked as a „black swan event, ‟ is bound to make extreme harm the
economy from an illness episode (Shretta, 2020). Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) is another
infection that makes extreme harm the respiratory framework. The novel Covid sickness was
first distinguished in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. The episode has altogether extended
across around the world, driving the World Health Organization to pronounce COVID-19 as a
pandemic on eleventh Walk 2020. The COVID-19 has tainted more than ten-million individuals
and caused more than 500,000 passings worldwide by June 2020 (WHO, 2020). The infection
spread internationally, and every day cases in the USA, South East Asia, and Africa are
expanding quickly while the cases in Europe are declining.

Development limitations, curfews, and travel boycotts were executed by state run
administrations across the world to handle the pandemic. Most nations are at present confronting
a second influx of the infection, which causes more harm than the primary wave. In this way,
most states have shut their boundaries to travelers. According to the IMF figures, the worldwide

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economy might be bound to decrease by - 3%, what's more, the deficiency of GDP because of
pandemic circumstances could associate with nine-trillion US$ in 2020 (IMF, 2020a).
Consequently, COVID-19 makes financial downturn because of strategic isolations, travel
limitations, and social removing, and essentially impacts monetary development around the
world. The United Nations World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) announced 100% travel
limitations on worldwide objections in 2020. Subsequently, global the travel industry and
homegrown the travel industry have become more muddled than in different enterprises.

Travel and Tourism is one of the basic areas in the worldwide economy, which represented US$
2.9 trillion to GDP in 2019; this is the most elevated commitment by area to the GDP, 29% of
world assistance trades, and 300 million positions around the world (Gamage et al. 2020;
UNWTO, 2020). The travel industry area has the most elevated monetary commitment in
creating (Gamage et al. 2018) what's more, created nations and is one of the quickest developing
financial areas around the world; in 2018, 1.4 billion global traveler appearances worldwide have
been distinguished. The movement and the travel industry area is one of the most influenced
areas in the economy due to the Coronavirus pandemic (Shretta, 2020). Because of the wellbeing
and financial emergency brought about by the pandemic, the travel industry area is influenced
for a huge scope. The UNWTO has assessed a deficiency of roughly 1.1 billion global vacationer
appearances, with a deficiency of US$ 910 billion to US$ 1.1 trillion product incomes and 100-
120 million positions because of the more extensive spread of the book Covid.

The principle objective of this review is to decide the effect of the COVID-19 episode on the
worldwide the travel industry. The exploration centers around all nations and decides the
difficulties they looked in the travel industry, and the methodologies to defeat those difficulties
in the short-and long haul while limiting the worldwide financial shocks because of the
pandemic. The concentrate additionally focuses on the effect of the other primary sub-
administrations supporting the travel industry area advancement, for example, neighborliness, air
travel, food and drinks, transport, and correspondence. A creating district requirement to secure
individuals and keep a sound the travel industry temporarily. The legislatures should make
systems to secure specialists in the travel industry, and at the equivalent time, states can offer
monetary alleviation with low-interest advances or awards. Accordingly, this review centers
around the effect of COVID-19 on the travel industry and assesses difficulties looked by the
travel industry as a principle sub-area of the economy.

Examinations on the effect of COVID-19 on the worldwide the travel industry are very
uncommon in the current writing. Just restricted writing was accessible on the impact of
COVID-19 on monetary development, and it was hard to recognize a huge exploration article
that addresses the moves for the travel industry area because of the pandemic. In any case, many
reports by UNWTC, WTCC, and UNCTD have distinguished the effect of COVID-19 on the
travel industry area. Along these lines, the principle commitment of this review to the current
writing is adding new and generally huge associations with the COVID-19 pandemic and the

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travel industry area all around the world, which is the least examined region in writing because
of the less accessibility of information.

Discussion

Worldwide, the COVID-19 episode causes a less secure circumstance in the travel industry. As
numerous legislatures force travel limitations, the travel industry confronted discouragement
over different areas on the planet. Given below table demonstrates the COVID-19 cases on the
planet.

International Tourist Arrivals

The COVID-19 episode made basic difficulties for the worldwide the travel industry area.
Subsequently, UNWTO gauges that worldwide global traveler appearances could decrease
between 20% to 30 percent with a deficiency of US$ 30 to 50 billion. The accessible information
in UNWTO has brought up a 22% diminishing in global vacationer appearances in the principal
quarter of 2020, with a 57% decrease of traveler appearances in March. This addresses a
deficiency of 67 million worldwide sections in the main quarter of 2020 contrasted with a similar
period last year. Because of the areas, Asia and the Pacific locale, the primary area to experience
the effect of COVID-19, encountered a 35% decline in traveler appearances in the principal
quarter of 2020. With a 19% decrease in traveler appearances, Europe was the second-most
influenced area in the travel industry.

The global traveler appearance data in 2020 by months was hard to gather because of the absence
of accessible information. The unfamiliar vacationer appearances can be assessed by the global
traveler appearances information in the years 2019 and 2020.

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As per the UNWTO information, global vacationer appearances declined in 2020, as delineated
in Chart below. The rate change of the traveler appearances by the locales on the planet is given
accessible information in UNWTO.

As clarified in the writing survey, the decrease of the travel industry might affect different areas
in the economy, particularly the accommodation and air travel industry that upholds the travel
industry. The effect on every area with the spread of COVID-19 is additionally exhibited in the
accompanying areas.

Air Travel Industry

The air travel industry is one of the hardest influenced areas in income because of the COVID-19
episode. It is normal in many nations with movement limitations, travel boycotts, and scratch-
offs of trips with the Covid issue. The accessible information on the International Civil Aviation
Organization (ICAO) demonstrates a 38% lessening in world complete air limit in March 2020.

As indicated by ICAO information, the quantity of worldwide travelers declined from 44% to
80% in 2020 because of the COVID-19 episode (UNWTO, 2020a). The air appointments show
the most noteworthy decay around the world. Asia and the Pacific locale (- 98%) show the
greatest drop and began to decay before, with the presentation of movement limitations in China.
Air appointments from Europe (- 76%), the Americas (- 67%), Africa, and the Middle East (-
65%) all had serious decreases in the primary quarter of 2020 (UNWTO, 2020a). IATA gauges a
complete deficiency of 113 billion US$ to the aircraft business.

Hospitality Industry

Inns all throughout the planet face abrogations of appointments because of the pandemic
circumstance. Subsequently, the Hotel business lost US$ 150 billion, for the most part

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influencing the representatives in the business. Subsequently, the effect of the COVID-19 flare-
up on the friendliness business can be assessed utilizing room booking scratch-offs and the
situation with lodging industry laborers. The inn business in all world districts recorded a
gigantic drop in the worldwide income per accessible room, e.g., Asia (- 67.8%) and Europe (-
61.7%). Likewise, the worldwide inhabitances in nations diminished essentially in March 2020,
from 20% to more than 70% around the world (UNWTO, 2020a). The negative connection
between infection episodes of the travel industry area has been outlined by earlier examinations
dependent on the Ebola infection and the flare-up of SARS (Kongoley-MIH, 2015; Zeng et al.,
2005). The COVID-19 pestilence is the most extreme infection flare-up, which significantly
impacts the world economy contrasted with the past flare-ups. The UNWTO information further
outlined those 850 million to 1.1 billion less global traveler appearances with a deficiency of
product incomes from the travel industry 910 billion US $ to 1.2 trillion US $ in 2020 due to the
Covid scourge around the world. It likewise upgraded that 100 to 120 million direct the travel
industry occupations are in danger. The above discoveries uncovered a negative connection
between the COVID-19 episode and the travel industry area.

METHODOLOGY
For this assignment we as an individual from the gathering individuals went through a
significant number of the examinations, explores did prior, and information on various
destinations to have the references, as the task. So we utilized the distinct ive did explore,
studies, and information from sited as auxiliary information for information assortment and
this was finished by utilizing the web for surfing and discover significant information as
indicated by our subject of the task "IMPACT OF COVID-19 ON TOURISM SECTOR".
Henceforth we are giving the references toward the end in the "References" part of the task.
So anybody who has any uncertainty about any of the information utilized in our task might
go through them. Then, at that point, we need to utilize various apparatuses and strategies of
measurements to do our task proficiently. Insights method we are utilizing:
CORRELATION, REGRESSION and INDEX NUMBER.

DATA ANALYSIS USING CORRELATION, REGRESSION AND INDEX

NUMBER
CORRELATION:

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 Months (2020) No. of Cases (x) International Tourist Arrival (in thousand) predicted value of y (in thousand) Error
January 5005 98000 50750.73476 47249.26524
Feburary 83255 82000 50703.06711 31296.93289
March 892593 80000 50210.04173 29789.95827
April 3310591 20000 48737.06704 -28737.06704
May 6522895 0 46780.22402 -46780.22402
June 10768474 10000 44193.93965 -34193.93965
July 16915024 30000 40449.63854 -10449.63854
August 26073610 35000 34870.49191 129.5080931
September 33818314 34000 30152.64144 3847.358562
October 44555802 20000 23611.67321 -3611.67321
November 64499508 12000 11462.54231 537.4576929
December 83188186 11000 77.93829051 10922.06171

Correlation -0.515004186 negative

Here we are able to find the correlation with the help of no. of cases and international tourist
arrival per months.

As the covid-19 cases increases drastically tourism falls rapidly per month and become zero at a
certain point as a result correlation becomes in negative value.

REGRESSION:

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Months (2020) No. of Cases(x)International Tourist Arrival (Y) (in thousand)X- MEAN Y-MEAN (X-MEAN)^2 (x-mean)(y-mean)
January 5005 98000 -24214433 62000 5.8634E+14 -1.50129E+12
Feburary 83255 82000 -24136183 46000 5.8256E+14 -1.11026E+12
March 892593 80000 -23326845 44000 5.4414E+14 -1.02638E+12
April 3310591 20000 -20908847 -16000 4.3718E+14 3.34542E+11
May 6522895 0 -17696543 -36000 3.1317E+14 6.37076E+11
June 10768474 10000 -13450964 -26000 1.8093E+14 3.49725E+11
July 16915024 30000 -7304414.1 -6000 5.3354E+13 43826484500
August 26073610 35000 1854171.9 -1000 3.438E+12 -1854171917
September 33818314 34000 9598875.9 -2000 9.2138E+13 -19197751833
October 44555802 20000 20336364 -16000 4.1357E+14 -3.25382E+11
November 64499508 12000 40280070 -24000 1.6225E+15 -9.66722E+11
December 83188186 11000 58968748 -25000 3.4773E+15 -1.47422E+12
MEAN 24219438.08 36000 8.3066E+15 -5.06015E+12

y = intercept +(slope*x)

Regression
120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
-10000000 0 10000000 20000000 30000000 40000000 50000000 60000000 70000000 80000000 90000000

International Tourist Arrival (in thousand) predicted value of y (in thousand)

Summary Output

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 Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.515004186
R Square 0.265229312
Adjusted R Square 0.191752243
Standard Error 29222.43135
Observations 12

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 3082495060 3082495060 3.60968824 0.086634178
Residual 10 8539504940 853950494
Total 11 11622000000

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%
Intercept 50753.78366 11465.83152 4.426524459 0.00128104 25206.31898 76301.2483 25206.31898 76301.24833
No. of Cases (x) -0.000609171 0.00032063 -1.899917957 0.08663418 -0.00132358 0.00010524 -0.00132358 0.000105238

Regression is shown in the graph as the international tourist shows rapid fall.

Index Number
International Tourist Arrival (in thousand) Ratio Ratio in %
98000 1 100.00
82000 0.836734694 83.67
80000 0.816326531 81.63
20000 0.204081633 20.41
0 0 0.00
10000 0.102040816 10.20
30000 0.306122449 30.61
35000 0.357142857 35.71
34000 0.346938776 34.69
20000 0.204081633 20.41
12000 0.12244898 12.24
11000 0.112244898 11.22

Base = 98000

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 Ratio in %
120.00

100.00

80.00

60.00

40.00

20.00

0.00
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Here we find the index number with the help of international tourist numbers falls in a ratio
percentage.

No. of international tourist falls as the covid-19 cases increases.

RESEARCH RELATED QUESTIONNAIRE

1. What is the effect of covid-19 on economy due to tourism?

The travel industry is one of the world's major monetary areas. It is the third-biggest product
classification (after energizes and synthetics) and in 2019 represented 7% of worldwide exchange.

For certain nations, it can address more than 20% of their GDP and, generally speaking, it is the
third biggest product area of the worldwide economy.

The travel industry is one of the areas generally influenced by the Covid-19 pandemic, affecting
economies, occupations, public administrations and openings on all mainlands. All pieces of its
tremendous worth chain have been influenced.

Commodity incomes from the travel industry could fall by $910 billion to $1.2 trillion out of 2020.
This will have a more extensive effect and could diminish worldwide GDP by 1.5% to 2.8%.

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The travel industry upholds one out of 10 positions and gives occupations to a huge number more
in both creating and created economies.

In some Small Island Developing States (SIDS), the travel industry has represented as much as
80% of products, while it likewise addresses significant portions of public economies in both
created and non-industrial nations.

2. How does covid-19 effect livelihood of people in tourism sector?

Upwards of 100 million direct the travel industry occupations are in danger, notwithstanding areas
related with the travel industry, for example, work concentrated convenience and food
administrations ventures that give work to 144 million laborers around the world. Private ventures
(which shoulder 80% of worldwide the travel industry) are especially helpless.

Ladies, who make up 54% of the travel industry labor force, youth and laborers in the casual
economy are among the most in danger classifications.

No country will be unaffected. Objections generally dependent on the travel industry for
occupations and monetary development are probably going to be hit hardest: SIDS, Least
Developed Countries (LDCs) and African nations. In Africa, the area addressed 10% of all
commodities in 2019.

3. How does mitigating impacts on nature and culture due to sudden fall in tourism?

The unexpected fall in the travel industry cuts off financing for biodiversity preservation. Some
7% of world the travel industry identifies with untamed life, a fragment developing by 3% yearly.

This spots occupations in danger and has effectively prompted an ascent in poaching, plundering
and in utilization of bushmeat, incompletely because of the diminished presence of travelers and
staff.

The effect on biodiversity and environments is especially basic in SIDS and LDCs. In numerous
African objections, natural life represents up to 80% of visits, and in numerous SIDS, the travel
industry incomes empower marine protection endeavors.

A few instances of local area inclusion in nature the travel industry show how networks, including
native people groups, have had the option to ensure their social and regular legacy while making
abundance and work on their prosperity. The effect of COVID-19 on the travel industry puts
further strain on legacy preservation just as on the social and social texture of networks, especially
for native individuals and ethnic gatherings.

For example, numerous elusive social legacy practices, for example, customary celebrations and
get-togethers have been stopped or deferred, and with the conclusion of business sectors for
painstaking work, items and different products, native ladies' incomes have been especially
affected. 90% of nations have shut World Heritage Sites, with gigantic financial ramifications for

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networks dependent on the travel industry. Further, 90% of historical centers shut and 13% may
never resume.

4. When do you expect a reply in global the travel industry in your country?
A development of specialists sees a reply in transnational the travel industry in 2021,
specifically by the second from last quarter 2021, while around 20 anticipates that it should
do just in 2022.

5. What are the principle factors bringing in on the recuperation of worldwide the travel
industry?
Specialists consider trip limitations as the primary fence bringing in on the recuperation of
transnational the travel industry, alongside sluggish infection requirement and low buyer
certainty.

6. When do you expect world the travel industry to get back to pre-pandemic 2019 levels
in your country?
Most extreme specialists don't see a re-visitation of pre-pandemic 2019 circumstances passing
before 2023.

7. Is homegrown the travel industry driving the recuperation in your objective?

Homegrown the travel industry is driving the recuperation of a few objections however in
most extreme cases just not entirely, as it isn't making up for the drop in transnational interest.
Repliers from Asia and the Pacific were the best in regards to the gift of homegrown the travel
industry to the recuperation of objections.

CONCLUSION
Our research is based on the effects of covid 19 on tourism, as we have found the correlation
coefficient with the help of data which we have found from different references on the number of
cases and international tourist arrival which has given the concept of correlation analysis. In this
assignment, we have also find regression analysis and have calculated the regression between X
and Y values.

We have also deal with the Index number which has given us effective knowledge of this
concept.

We have also cleared the idea of these whole concepts by taking advantage of the graph which
has shown us the fluctuation of the number of cases and international tourist arrival rates.

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RECOMMENDATIONS
The abidance of associations all through the trip assiduity terrain is in peril without progressed with
government support and in malignancy of the fact that houses have made an amazing move to pad the
megahit to the trip assiduity, to limit employment mischances and to fabricate rehabilitation in 2021 and
also some, further should be done, and in a further-ordinated way. Crucial approach needs include:

 Reestablishing discoverer certainty.

 Supporting the trip assiduity associations to acclimate and endure.
 Advancing homegrown the trip assiduity and supporting safe return of worldwide the trip
assiduity.
 Giving clear data to voyagers and associations, and confining vulnerability (to the degree
conceivable).
 Advancing response measures to keep up with limit in the area and address holes in upholds.
 Fortifying-activity outside and between nations.
 Structure stronger, practical the trip assiduity.

While adaptable strategy arrangements are anticipated to empower the trip assiduity frugality to live near
by the infection in the short to medium term, look past this and find ways to gain from the exigency,
which has uncovered holes in government and assiduity readiness and response limit. Co-ordinated
exertion across state run administrations at all situations and the private area is abecedarian.

The exigency is a chance to review the trip assiduity for what is to come. The trip assiduity is at a
crossroad and the conduct set up moment will shape the trip assiduity of hereafter. Houses need to
consider the further extended term ramifications of the exigency, while benefiting by digitalization,
supporting the low carbon change, and advancing the primary change anticipated to assemble a more
predicated, further provident and protean the trip assiduity frugality.

REFERENCES
1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Travel_restrictions_related_to_the_COVID-19_pandemic
2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_on_tourism
3. https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https://unctad.org/sites/default/files/inline-
images/Fig1_0.jpg&imgrefurl=https://unctad.org/news/global-economy-could-lose-over-4-
trillion-due-covid-19-impact-
tourism&tbnid=MYvkvKBCp37TCM&vet=1&docid=re_3hrgCPXPeGM&w=1600&h=717&sou
rce=sh/x/im
4. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41599-020-00630-8
5. https://www.who.int/emergencies/diseases/novel-coronavirus-2019/travel-
advice?gclid=Cj0KCQjwqp-LBhDQARIsAO0a6aIOtenQZJz6CGFgF9YU-
5RyUgmSnEMJRfz3UhJXauUcRg6EVHPCqMwaAjswEALw_wcB

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 6. https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/policy-responses/rebuilding-tourism-for-the-future-covid-19-
policy-responses-and-recovery-bced9859/
7. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2213078020300530

PEER RATING:

NAME ROLL NO. REG NO. RATING

Lalit Kumar RQ2144B74 12111750 10

Robin Jaiswal RQ2144B75 12112555 6

Gopal Gupta RQ2144B77 12112760 10

Jagrati Upadhyaya RQ2144B84 12114222 10

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